ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Alex Tabarrok - Economist
With the hit economic blog MarginalRevolution.com, co-author Alex Tabarrok generates more hits than a summer hailstorm, and sheds light into the darkest corners of the dismal science.

Why you should listen

Perhaps the appeal of economics in the blogosphere was not pre-ordained from its representation in the bestseller lists (the Freakonomics phenomenon notwithstanding). But economists have taken the internet by storm, and Alex Tabarrok is one of the hottest -- along with co-author Tyler Cowen, their blog marginalrevolution.com is one of the most popular on the web, generating a forest of links and kudos from the mainstream press, including the Wall Street Journal.

Tabarrok's fascinations include the intersection among economics, law and public policy -- examining questions such as how race and poverty affect the outcome of jury trials. Tabarrok is also the Director of Research for the Independent Institute, an assistant editor for the Independent Review, and an Associate Professor of Economics at George Mason University.

More profile about the speaker
Alex Tabarrok | Speaker | TED.com
TED2009

Alex Tabarrok: How ideas trump crises

Alex Tabarrok 评论: 如何用创新来克服危机

Filmed:
881,960 views

经济学这门“忧郁科学”在这场乐观的讲演中大放异彩. 经济学家Alex Tabarrok认为自由贸易和全球化正把曾经分裂的世界塑造成一个共享创新的社会, 这个社会的未来会比任何人的预测都更加健康,幸福和繁荣.
- Economist
With the hit economic blog MarginalRevolution.com, co-author Alex Tabarrok generates more hits than a summer hailstorm, and sheds light into the darkest corners of the dismal science. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
The first half of the 20th century世纪
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20世纪的上半叶
00:16
was an absolute绝对 disaster灾害 in human人的 affairs事务,
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是人类历史上一个彻底失败的阶段,
00:19
a cataclysm激变.
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那是一场浩劫.
00:21
We had the First World世界 War战争,
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我们经历了第一次世界大战,
00:24
the Great Depression萧条,
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大萧条,
00:26
the Second第二 World世界 War战争
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第二次世界大战,
00:28
and the rise上升 of the communist共产 nations国家.
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以及共产主义国家的兴起.
00:31
And each one of these forces军队
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这其中的每一个势力都
00:33
split分裂 the world世界, tore撕毁 the world世界 apart距离,
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將世界隔离开来, 分化世界,
00:35
divided分为 the world世界.
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分裂世界.
00:38
And they threw up walls墙壁 --
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这些势力制造了很多壁垒,
00:40
political政治 walls墙壁, trade贸易 walls墙壁,
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政治壁垒, 贸易壁垒,
00:42
transportation运输 walls墙壁,
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运输壁垒,
00:44
communication通讯 walls墙壁, iron curtains窗帘 --
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通信壁垒, 以及种种阻碍交流的无形屏障,
00:47
which哪一个 divided分为 peoples人们 and nations国家.
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它们分裂了人民, 也分裂了国家.
00:51
It was only in the second第二 half of the 20th century世纪
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直到二十世纪下半叶,
00:55
that we slowly慢慢地 began开始 to pull ourselves我们自己
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我们才慢慢开始从这个
00:58
out of this abyss深渊.
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深渊里爬出来.
01:01
Trade贸易 walls墙壁 began开始 to come tumbling翻筋斗 down.
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贸易壁垒开始轰然倒塌.
01:04
Here are some data数据 on tariffs关税:
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这里是一些关税数据:
01:06
starting开始 at 40 percent百分, coming未来 down to less than 5 percent百分.
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从开始的百分之四十, 一直降到百分之五以下.
01:09
We globalized全球化 the world世界. And what does that mean?
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我们实现了全球化. 这意味着什么呢?
01:12
It means手段 that we extended扩展 cooperation合作
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这意味着人类的合作
01:15
across横过 national国民 boundaries边界;
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已经跨越国界.
01:17
we made制作 the world世界 more cooperative合作社.
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我们使世界变得更合作.
01:20
Transportation运输 walls墙壁 came来了 tumbling翻筋斗 down.
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运输壁垒也倒塌了.
01:24
You know in 1950 the typical典型 ship carried携带的
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1950年, 一艘典型的货船可装载
01:27
5,000 to 10,000 tons worth价值 of goods产品.
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五千至一万吨货物.
01:31
Today今天 a container容器 ship can carry携带 150,000 tons;
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今天,一艘集装箱船的载重量达到十五万吨.
01:35
it can be manned载人 with a smaller crew船员;
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运作它需要的船员队伍比之前还小,
01:37
and unloaded卸载 faster更快 than ever before.
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而且卸载也比以往更快.
01:40
Communication通讯 walls墙壁, I don't have to tell you -- the Internet互联网 --
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通信壁垒, 不用我多说, 随着互联网的出现
01:43
have come tumbling翻筋斗 down.
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也已不复存在了(GFW).
01:45
And of course课程 the iron curtains窗帘,
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当然还有铁幕的瓦解,
01:47
political政治 walls墙壁 have come tumbling翻筋斗 down.
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政治壁垒已逐渐消除.
01:51
Now all of this has been tremendous巨大 for the world世界.
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所有这一切都对世界有巨大的影响.
01:55
Trade贸易 has increased增加.
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贸易增长了.
01:57
Here is just a little bit of data数据.
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我有一些数据来证明.
01:59
In 1990, exports出口 from China中国 to the United联合的 States状态:
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1990年, 中国到美国的出口额是
02:01
15 billion十亿 dollars美元.
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150亿美元.
02:03
By 2007: over 300 billion十亿 dollars美元.
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到2007年,则超过了3000亿美元.
02:07
And perhaps也许 most remarkably异常,
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也许最值得指出的是,
02:10
at the beginning开始 of the 21stST century世纪,
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在21世纪初,
02:12
really for the first time in modern现代 history历史,
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真的是第一次在现代历史上,
02:16
growth发展 extended扩展 to almost几乎 all parts部分 of the world世界.
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经济增长的势头几乎遍布世界各地
02:20
So China中国, I've already已经 mentioned提到,
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我已经提到过中国,
02:22
beginning开始 around 1978, around the time of the death死亡 of Mao,
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从1978年开始, 大约在毛泽东去世的时候,
02:25
growth发展 -- ten percent百分 a year.
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开始了每年百分之十的经济增长.
02:27
Year after year after year,
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年复一年,
02:29
absolutely绝对 incredible难以置信.
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真是难以置信!
02:31
Never before in human人的 history历史
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史无前例的是,
02:35
have so many许多 people been raised上调 out of
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中国把这么多人从贫困中
02:37
such这样 great poverty贫穷 as happened发生 in China中国.
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解救出来.
02:40
China中国 is the world's世界 greatest最大 anti-poverty扶贫 program程序
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在过去三十年里, 中国运行了世界上最成功的
02:43
over the last three decades几十年.
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摆脱贫穷项目.
02:45
India印度, starting开始 a little bit later后来,
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印度开始的晚一些,
02:47
but in 1990, begetting不断产生 tremendous巨大 growth发展.
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但在1990年, 开始了迅猛的增长.
02:50
Incomes收入 at that time
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当时的人均年收入还
02:52
less than $1,000 per year.
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不到1000美元.
02:54
And over the next下一个 18 years年份
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而在接下来的18年
02:56
have almost几乎 tripled三倍.
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几乎增加了两倍.
02:58
Growth发展 of six percent百分 a year. Absolutely绝对 incredible难以置信.
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每年经济增长百分之六. 绝对难以置信.
03:01
Now Africa非洲, Sub-Saharan撒哈拉以南 Africa非洲 --
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非洲, 撒哈拉以南的非洲,
03:04
Sub-Saharan撒哈拉以南 Africa非洲
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撒哈拉以南的非洲
03:06
has been the area of the world世界
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是世界上
03:08
most resistant to growth发展.
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最抗拒发展的地区.
03:11
And we can see the tragedy悲剧 of Africa非洲
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我们可以看到非洲的悲剧
03:14
in the first few少数 bars酒吧 here.
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就从这个条形图的前几个条.
03:16
Growth发展 was negative.
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负增长!
03:18
People were actually其实 getting得到 poorer than their parents父母,
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人民越来越穷, 都比不上他们父母的生活水平.
03:21
and sometimes有时 even poorer than their grandparents祖父母 had been.
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有时甚至比他们的祖父母还穷.
03:24
But at the end结束 of the 20th century世纪,
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但在二十世纪末,
03:26
the beginning开始 of the 21stST century世纪,
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二十一世纪初,
03:28
we saw growth发展 in Africa非洲.
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我们看到非洲也开始发展.
03:31
And I think, as you'll你会 see, there's reasons原因 for optimism乐观,
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正如你将会看到, 我认为我们有理由乐观.
03:33
because I believe that the best最好 is yet然而 to come.
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因为我相信好戏还在后头呢!
03:36
Now why.
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为什么这么说呢?
03:38
On the cutting切割 edge边缘 today今天
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在今天的发展的最前沿
03:40
it's new ideas思路 which哪一个 are driving主动 growth发展.
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主要是创新在推动经济增长.
03:42
And by that I mean it's
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也就是说,
03:44
products制品 for which哪一个 the research研究 and development发展 costs成本
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尖端产品的特点是它的研究和开发费用
03:47
are really high, and the manufacturing制造业 costs成本 are low.
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非常高, 但是制造成本很低.
03:50
More than ever before it is these types类型 of ideas思路
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这种创新, 比以往任何时候都更加
03:52
which哪一个 are driving主动 growth发展 on the cutting切割 edge边缘.
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能够推动尖端技术的发展.
03:55
Now ideas思路 have this amazing惊人 property属性.
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创新有一个很了不起的性质.
03:57
Thomas托马斯 Jefferson杰斐逊, I think, really expressed表达 this quite相当 well.
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我认为托马斯杰斐逊 (Thomas Jefferson) 表达得相当好.
04:00
He said, "He who receives收到 an idea理念 from me
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他说过, “他接受我的一个想法,
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receives收到 instruction指令 himself他自己, without lessening减持 mine.
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他自己受到教育,而我的想法并没有减少.
04:08
As he who lights灯火 his candle蜡烛 at mine
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就象他借用我的蜡烛来点燃他的,
04:11
receives收到 light without darkening变黑 me."
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他有了光,而我并没有变暗."
04:14
Or to put it slightly differently不同:
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或者换一个说法,
04:16
one apple苹果 feeds供稿 one man,
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一个苹果可以喂一个人,
04:18
but an idea理念 can feed饲料 the world世界.
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但一个创意可以哺育整个世界.
04:21
Now this is not new. This is practically几乎 not new to TEDstersTEDsters.
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这并没有什么新奇的. 尤其对参加TED的代表们.
04:24
This is practically几乎 the model模型 of TEDTED.
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这实际上恰恰是TED的模式.
04:26
But what is new is that the greater更大 function功能 of ideas思路
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这里面真正的创新是认识到创意会起到更大的功能,
04:30
is going to drive驾驶 growth发展 even more than ever before.
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它会比以往任何时候都更能推动经济增长.
04:35
This provides提供 a reason原因 why
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这就是为什么
04:37
trade贸易 and globalization全球化
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贸易与全球化
04:39
are even more important重要, more powerful强大 than ever before,
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比以往任何时候都更重要, 更有力.
04:42
and are going to increase增加 growth发展 more than ever before.
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而且比以往任何时候都能更快地促进经济增长.
04:45
And to explain说明 why this is so, I have a question.
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为了解释为什么会是这样, 我先问一个问题.
04:48
Suppose假设 that there are two diseases疾病:
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假设有两个疾病,
04:51
one of them is rare罕见, the other one is common共同,
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一个是罕见的疾病,另一个是常见病.
04:53
but if they are not treated治疗 they are equally一样 severe严重.
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但是如果不治疗他们, 后果会同样严重.
04:56
If you had to choose选择, which哪一个 would you rather have:
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如果你来选择, 你会选哪一个呢?
04:59
the common共同 disease疾病 or the rare罕见 disease疾病?
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常见病还是罕见病?
05:03
Common共同, the common共同 -- I think that's absolutely绝对 right,
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常见病. 对了. 我认为这是绝对正确的.
05:05
and why? Because there are more drugs毒品 to treat对待 common共同 diseases疾病
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为什么呢? 因为治疗常见疾病的药物
05:09
than there are to treat对待 rare罕见 diseases疾病.
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会比治疗罕见疾病的药物多得多.
05:12
The reason原因 for this is incentives奖励.
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问题的根源在于动力.
05:14
It costs成本 about the same相同 to produce生产 a new drug药物
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发明新药物的成本都差不多,
05:17
whether是否 that drug药物 treats对待 1,000 people,
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无论那个药物可以治疗1000人,
05:20
100,000 people, or a million百万 people.
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10万人, 或100万人.
05:23
But the revenues收入 are much greater更大 if the drug药物 treats对待 a million百万 people.
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但是, 如果那个药物能治疗100万人, 它的营业收入会很高.
05:26
So the incentives奖励 are much larger
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显然了, 生产治疗常见病药物
05:29
to produce生产 drugs毒品 which哪一个 treat对待 more people.
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的动力要大得多.
05:33
To put this differently不同: larger markets市场 save保存 lives生活.
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换句话说, 大市场救生命.
05:37
In this case案件 misery苦难 truly does love company公司.
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这真是真正的"同病相怜"啊.
05:41
Now think about the following以下:
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请想一想:
05:43
if China中国 and India印度 were as rich丰富 as the United联合的 States状态 is today今天,
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如果中国和印度像今天的美国一样富有,
05:47
the market市场 for cancer癌症 drugs毒品 would be eight times larger than it is now.
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抗癌药物的市场将是现在的8倍.
05:53
Now we are not there yet然而, but it is happening事件.
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我们还没有达到那个程度, 但这是会实现的!
05:55
As other countries国家 become成为 richer更丰富
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随着其他国家变得更加富有
05:58
the demand需求 for these pharmaceuticals药品
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对这些药品的需求
06:00
is going to increase增加 tremendously异常.
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将大幅增加.
06:02
And that means手段 an increase增加 incentive激励 to do research研究 and development发展,
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这意味着研发的动力会增加,
06:05
which哪一个 benefits好处 everyone大家 in the world世界.
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这对全世界每个人都有好处.
06:08
Larger较大的 markets市场 increase增加 the incentive激励
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市场越大,
06:10
to produce生产 all kinds of ideas思路,
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创新的动力越大.
06:12
whether是否 it's software软件, whether是否 it's a computer电脑 chip芯片,
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不论是软件, 还是计算机芯片,
06:14
whether是否 it's a new design设计.
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还是一个崭新的设计.
06:16
For the Hollywood好莱坞 people in the audience听众,
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对于来自好莱坞的观众
06:18
this even explains说明 why action行动 movies电影
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这甚至可以解释为什么动作片的预算
06:20
have larger budgets预算 than comedies喜剧:
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比喜剧片要大.
06:22
it's because action行动 movies电影 translate翻译 easier更轻松
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这是因为动作片更容易翻译到
06:25
into other languages语言 and other cultures文化,
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其他语言和其他文化.
06:27
so the market市场 for those movies电影 is larger.
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这些电影的市场更大,
06:29
People are willing愿意 to invest投资 more,
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所以人们更愿意多投资,
06:31
and the budgets预算 are larger.
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所以预算可以更大.
06:33
Alright好的. Well if larger markets市场 increase增加 the incentive激励
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好. 那么, 如果市场越大,
06:36
to produce生产 new ideas思路,
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创新的动力越大,
06:38
how do we maximize最大化 that incentive激励?
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我们如何能最大限度地发挥这一动力呢?
06:41
It's by having one world世界 market市场, by globalizing全球化 the world世界.
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通过统一世界市场, 通过世界全球化.
06:46
The way I like to put this is:
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我喜欢的说法是,
06:48
one idea理念. Ideas思路 are meant意味着 to be shared共享,
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"同一个想法", 想法就是为了分享,
06:51
so one idea理念 can serve服务 one world世界, one market市场.
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就是说, 同一个想法可以为同一个世界服务, 为同一个市场服务.
06:56
One idea理念, one world世界, one market市场.
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同一个想法, 同一个世界, 同一个市场.
06:59
Well how else其他 can we create创建 new ideas思路?
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除此之外, 还有什么渠道来创造新的想法呢?
07:02
That's one reason原因.
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这些动力包括
07:04
Globalize全球化 trade贸易.
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全球化, 贸易.
07:06
How else其他 can we create创建 new ideas思路?
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还有什么别的办法呢?
07:08
Well, more idea理念 creators创作者.
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恩,更多的创新者.
07:10
Now idea理念 creators创作者, they come from all walks散步 of life.
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来自社会各阶层的创新者.
07:13
Artists艺术家 and innovators创新 -- many许多 of the people you've seen看到 on this stage阶段.
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艺术家和改革家, 包括许多在这个讲台上演讲过的人.
07:16
I'm going to focus焦点 on scientists科学家们 and engineers工程师
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我今天要特别提到科学家和工程师
07:19
because I have some data数据 on that, and I'm a data数据 person.
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因为我在这方面有一些数据. 我是一个靠数据说话的人.
07:22
Now, today今天, less than one-tenth十分之一 of one percent百分
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今天, 不到百分之零点一
07:27
of the world's世界 population人口 are scientists科学家们 and engineers工程师.
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的世界人口是科学家和工程师.
07:30
(Laughter笑声)
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(众笑)
07:32
The United联合的 States状态 has been an idea理念 leader领导.
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美国一直是创新方面的带头人.
07:35
A large fraction分数 of those people are in the United联合的 States状态.
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一大部分的创新者在美国.
07:38
But the U.S. is losing失去 its idea理念 leadership领导.
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但是, 美国开始失去它在创新方面的领导地位.
07:43
And for that I am very grateful感激.
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对此我表示衷心感谢.
07:45
That is a good thing.
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这是一件好事.
07:48
It is fortunate幸运 that we are becoming变得 less of an idea理念 leader领导
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庆幸的是, 我们不在是创新方面的带头人了
07:51
because for too long the United联合的 States状态,
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因为长期以来, 美国
07:53
and a handful少数 of other developed发达 countries国家,
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和其他几个发达国家,
07:55
have shouldered the entire整个 burden负担
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肩负着整个研究和开发的
07:57
of research研究 and development发展.
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的重任.
07:59
But consider考虑 the following以下:
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但是, 请大家考虑一下:
08:02
if the world世界 as a whole整个 were as wealthy富裕 as the United联合的 States状态 is now
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如果整个世界都象现在的美国一样富裕,
08:05
there would be more than five times as many许多 scientists科学家们 and engineers工程师
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那么, 将有5倍多的科学家和工程师
08:09
contributing贡献 to ideas思路 which哪一个 benefit效益 everyone大家,
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来贡献创意, 这对每个人都大有好处,
08:13
which哪一个 are shared共享 by everyone大家.
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供大家分享.
08:15
I think of the great Indian印度人 mathematician数学家, Ramanujan拉马努金.
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我想到伟大的印度数学家拉马努金 (Ramanujan).
08:19
How many许多 RamanujansRamanujans are there in India印度 today今天
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在今天的印度, 有多少个Ramanujans
08:23
toiling劳作 in the fields领域, barely仅仅 able能够 to feed饲料 themselves他们自己,
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在耕地里辛勤地劳动, 几乎无法养活自己,
08:26
when they could be feeding馈送 the world世界?
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他们什么时候才能来回报世界?
08:29
Now we're not there yet然而.
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现在我们还没有达到那个程度.
08:31
But it is going to happen发生 in this century世纪.
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但是, 这会在本世纪内实现的.
08:34
The real真实 tragedy悲剧 of the last century世纪 is this:
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上个世纪的真正的悲剧是, 打个比喻:
08:40
if you think about the world's世界 population人口
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如果你把世界人口想像成
08:44
as a giant巨人 computer电脑, a massively大规模 parallel平行 processor处理器,
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一个巨大的计算机, 一个大规模并行处理器,
08:47
then the great tragedy悲剧 has been
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那么, 极其不幸的是
08:49
that billions数十亿 of our processors处理器 have been off line线.
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数十亿的处理器都没开动.
08:54
But in this century世纪 China中国 is coming未来 on line线.
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但是在这个世纪, 中国开始上线.
08:57
India印度 is coming未来 on line线.
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印度开始上线.
08:59
Africa非洲 is coming未来 on line线.
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非洲也开始上线.
09:01
We will see an Einstein爱因斯坦 in Africa非洲 in this century世纪.
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在这个世纪之内, 我们将看到下一个出生在非洲的爱因斯坦.
09:06
Here is just some data数据. This is China中国.
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让我们来看一些数据. 这是关于中国的.
09:08
1996: less than one million百万
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1996年, 中国产生不到100万
09:10
new university大学 students学生们 in China中国 per year;
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的新大学生,每年.
09:13
2006: over five million百万.
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2006年, 这个数字超过了500万!
09:17
Now think what this means手段.
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这意味着什么呢?
09:19
This means手段 we all benefit效益 when another另一个 country国家 gets得到 rich丰富.
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这意味着, 当别的国家变富以后, 我们都将会受益.
09:23
We should not fear恐惧 other countries国家 becoming变得 wealthy富裕.
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我们不应该担心其他国家在变富.
09:27
That is something that we should embrace拥抱 --
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我们应该大力支持
09:30
a wealthy富裕 China中国, a wealthy富裕 India印度, a wealthy富裕 Africa非洲.
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一个富裕的中国, 一个富裕的印度, 和一个富裕的非洲.
09:33
We need a greater更大 demand需求 for ideas思路 --
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我们需要增大对创新的需求,
09:35
those larger markets市场 I was talking about earlier --
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需要扩大市场, 象我在前面讲到的,
09:38
and a greater更大 supply供应 of ideas思路 for the world世界.
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还有, 我们需要向世界提供更多的创新.
09:42
Now you can see some of the reasons原因 why I'm optimistic乐观.
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现在你可以理解我为什么对此充满信心.
09:46
Globalization全球化 is increasing增加 the demand需求
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全球化在增大对创新的需求,
09:48
for ideas思路, the incentive激励 to create创建 new ideas思路.
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这是创新的动力.
09:51
Investments投资 in education教育 are increasing增加 the supply供应 of new ideas思路.
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教育投资使我们产出更多的创新想法.
09:57
In fact事实 if you look at world世界 history历史
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事实上, 如果你看看世界历史
09:59
you can see some reasons原因 for optimism乐观.
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你可以看到一些乐观的理由.
10:01
From about the beginnings开始 of humanity人性
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从人类的起源
10:03
to 1500: zero economic经济 growth发展, nothing.
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到1500年, 经济增长率为零, 没有任何增长.
10:06
1500 to 1800: maybe a little bit of economic经济 growth发展,
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1500至1800年, 只有一点点的经济增长.
10:10
but less in a century世纪
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但那时一个世纪的经济增长
10:12
than you expect期望 to see in a year today今天.
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比现在一年的增长还少.
10:16
1900s: maybe one percent百分.
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1900年代, 增长率大约是百分之一.
10:18
Twentieth第二十 century世纪: a little bit over two percent百分.
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二十世纪, 百分之二多一点.
10:20
Twenty-first二十一 century世纪 could easily容易 be 3.3, even higher更高 percent百分.
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二十一世纪, 增长率可达到百分之3.3, 或者更高.
10:24
Even at that rate,
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即使是以这样的速度发展,
10:26
by 2100 average平均 GDPGDP per capita人头
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到2100年, 世界人均国内生产总值
10:29
in the world世界 will be $200,000.
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将达到20万美元.
10:32
That's not U.S. GDPGDP per capita人头, which哪一个 will be over a million百万,
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这不是美国的人均国内生产总值, 它将超过100万.
10:35
but world世界 GDPGDP per capita人头 -- $200,000.
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但世界人均国内生产总值是20万美元.
10:38
That's not that far.
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这不是远不可及的.
10:40
We won't惯于 make it.
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我们看不到那一天了.
10:42
But some of our grandchildren孙子 probably大概 will.
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但我们的孙子们大概会的.
10:44
And I should say,
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而且据我看,
10:46
I think this is a rather modest谦虚 prediction预测.
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我认为这是一个相当适中的预测.
10:49
In KurzweilianKurzweilian terms条款 this is gloomy阴沉.
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在Kurzweilian看来, 这个预测很悲观.
10:54
In KurzweilianKurzweilian terms条款 I'm like the Eeyore屹耳 of economic经济 growth发展.
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在Kurzweilian看来, 我象Eeyore的角色一样, 对经济增长很悲观.
10:58
(Laughter笑声)
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(众笑)
11:01
Alright好的 what about problems问题?
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好. 那么会遇到什么样的问题呢?
11:03
What about a great depression萧条?
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大萧条会不会再发生?
11:06
Well let's take a look. Let's take a look at the Great Depression萧条.
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那么让我们来看看. 让我们来看一下大萧条时期.
11:10
Here is GDPGDP per capita人头
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这是人均国内生产总值
11:12
from 1900 to 1929.
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从1900年到1929年.
11:15
Now let's imagine想像 that you were an economist经济学家 in 1929,
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让我们想象一下, 在1929年,如果你是一位经济学家
11:19
trying to forecast预测 future未来 growth发展 for the United联合的 States状态,
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试图预测美国的未来经济增长率,
11:22
not knowing会心 that the economy经济 was about to go off a cliff悬崖,
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你还不知道美国经济即将猛降.
11:26
not knowing会心 that we were about to enter输入
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不知道我们即将进入
11:29
the greatest最大 economic经济 disaster灾害 certainly当然 in the 20th century世纪.
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20世纪最重大的经济灾难期.
11:33
What would you have predicted预料到的, not knowing会心 this?
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不知道这些情况, 你会怎样预测呢?
11:35
If you had based基于 your prediction预测, your forecast预测
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如果你的预测是根据
11:37
on 1900 to 1929
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1900年至1929年的平均增长速度
11:39
you'd have predicted预料到的 something like this.
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你预测的结果大概是这样.
11:41
If you'd been a little more optimistic乐观 --
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如果你更乐观一点,
11:43
say, based基于 upon the Roaring咆哮 Twenties二十年代 -- you'd have said this.
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根据兴隆的20年代来预测, 你会得到这个结论.
11:46
So what actually其实 happened发生?
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那么实际情况如何呢?
11:48
We went off a cliff悬崖 but we recovered恢复.
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我们掉下了悬崖,但我们恢复过来了.
11:52
In fact事实 in the second第二 half of the 20th century世纪
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事实上, 20世纪下半叶的
11:55
growth发展 was even higher更高 than anything you would have predicted预料到的
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增长速度远远超过了任何预测,
11:59
based基于 upon the first half of the 20th century世纪.
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如果你的预测是基于20世纪上半叶的数据.
12:02
So growth发展 can wash away
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所以说, 经济增长可以冲走
12:04
even what appears出现 to be a great depression萧条.
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大萧条造成的损失.
12:07
Alright好的. What else其他?
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好. 还有什么值得考虑的呢?
12:09
Oil. Oil. This was a big topic话题.
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石油. 石油. 这是一个大课题.
12:12
When I was writing写作 up my notes笔记 oil was $140 per barrel.
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当我在准备这个讲演的时候, 石油是140美元一桶.
12:19
So people were asking a question. They were saying,
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所以, 大家都在想一个问题. 他们在问,
12:22
"Is China中国 drinking our milkshake奶昔?"
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“中国在喝我们的奶昔么?"
12:26
(Laughter笑声)
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(众笑)
12:27
And there is some truth真相 to this,
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这是有一定的道理的.
12:30
in the sense that we have something of a finite有限 resource资源,
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如果考虑到有限的资源.
12:34
and increased增加 growth发展 is going to push up demand需求 for that.
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随着经济增长的加快, 对资源的需求也会增加.
12:37
But I think I don't have to tell this audience听众
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但我认为在坐的观众不用我讲就明白,
12:39
that a higher更高 price价钱 of oil is not necessarily一定 a bad thing.
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石油价格增长并不一定是一件坏事.
12:44
Moreover此外, as everyone大家 knows知道,
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此外, 正如大家都知道,
12:47
look -- it's energy能源, not oil, which哪一个 counts计数.
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能源, 而不是石油, 是最重要的.
12:50
And higher更高 oil prices价格 mean
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而且, 油价越高,
12:52
a greater更大 incentive激励 to invest投资 in energy能源 R&D.
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投资新能源研发的动力越大.
12:55
You can see this in the data数据.
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你可以从数据里看得出:
12:57
As oil prices价格 go up, energy能源 patents专利 go up.
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随着石油价格的上涨, 能源专利也在上升.
13:00
The world世界 is much better equipped装备
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今天的世界做了很好的准备
13:02
to overcome克服 an increase增加 in the price价钱 of oil
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来应付油价上涨的危机,
13:04
today今天, than ever in the past过去,
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比以往任何时候都有准备,
13:06
because of what I'm talking about.
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正是因为我所讲到的.
13:08
One idea理念, one world世界, one market市场.
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同一个想法, 同一个世界, 同一个市场.
13:12
So I'm optimistic乐观
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所以我很乐观
13:15
so long as we hew to these two ideas思路:
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只要我们坚持以下这两个想法:
13:17
to keep globalizing全球化 world世界 markets市场,
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继续推动世界市场的全球化,
13:19
keep extending扩展 cooperation合作 across横过 national国民 boundaries边界,
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继续扩大跨越国界的合作,
13:23
and keep investing投资 in education教育.
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并继续投资于教育.
13:26
Now the United联合的 States状态 has a particularly尤其 important重要 role角色
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美国在这一方面有特别重要
13:29
to play in this:
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的作用 --
13:32
to keep our education教育 system系统 globalized全球化,
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继续全球化我们的教育体系,
13:35
to keep our education教育 system系统 open打开 to students学生们 from all over the world世界,
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继续保证我们的教育系统开放给来自世界各地的学生 --
13:39
because our education教育 system系统
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因为我们的教育体系
13:41
is the candle蜡烛
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正如一根蜡烛,
13:43
that other students学生们 come to light their own拥有 candles蜡烛.
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其他学生来用它来点燃他们自己的蜡烛.
13:48
Now remember记得 here what Jefferson杰斐逊 said.
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你们还记得我引用过的Jefferson的话吗?
13:51
Jefferson杰斐逊 said, "When they come
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Jefferson 说过. "当他们来用
13:54
and light their candles蜡烛 at ours我们的,
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我们的蜡烛去点燃他们的蜡烛时,
13:57
they gain获得 light, and we are not darkened黑暗."
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他们有了光, 而我们也不会变暗."
14:02
But Jefferson杰斐逊 wasn't quite相当 right, was he?
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但是, Jefferson并不完全正确, 对吗?
14:05
Because the truth真相 is,
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因为事实上,
14:08
when they light their candles蜡烛 at ours我们的,
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当他们用我们的蜡烛来点燃他们的蜡烛时,
14:12
there is twice两次 as much light available可得到 for everyone大家.
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大家有两倍的光来共享.
14:16
So my view视图 is: Be optimistic乐观.
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因此, 我的看法是, 我们应该保持乐观.
14:20
Spread传播 the ideas思路. Spread传播 the light.
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传播思想, 传播光明.
14:23
Thank you.
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谢谢.
14:25
(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
Translated by Huayan Amy Wang
Reviewed by Yongming Luo

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Alex Tabarrok - Economist
With the hit economic blog MarginalRevolution.com, co-author Alex Tabarrok generates more hits than a summer hailstorm, and sheds light into the darkest corners of the dismal science.

Why you should listen

Perhaps the appeal of economics in the blogosphere was not pre-ordained from its representation in the bestseller lists (the Freakonomics phenomenon notwithstanding). But economists have taken the internet by storm, and Alex Tabarrok is one of the hottest -- along with co-author Tyler Cowen, their blog marginalrevolution.com is one of the most popular on the web, generating a forest of links and kudos from the mainstream press, including the Wall Street Journal.

Tabarrok's fascinations include the intersection among economics, law and public policy -- examining questions such as how race and poverty affect the outcome of jury trials. Tabarrok is also the Director of Research for the Independent Institute, an assistant editor for the Independent Review, and an Associate Professor of Economics at George Mason University.

More profile about the speaker
Alex Tabarrok | Speaker | TED.com

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