TED2017
Garry Kasparov: Don't fear intelligent machines. Work with them
蓋瑞 · 卡斯帕洛夫: 不要害怕智慧機器，與它們合作
Filmed:
Readability: 4.7
1,595,117 views
蓋瑞 · 卡斯帕洛夫說，如果我們要充分利用科技，就必須面對自身的恐懼；如果我們要盡情發揮人性，就必須克服那些恐懼。蓋瑞 · 卡斯帕洛夫是史上最偉大的西洋棋手之一，在 1997 年與 IBM 超級電腦深藍的比賽中敗下陣來。他分享他對未來的遠見：智慧機器將在未來協助我們實現最偉大的夢想。
Garry Kasparov - Grandmaster, analyst
Garry Kasparov is esteemed by many as the greatest chess player of all time. Now he’s engaged in a game with far higher stakes: the preservation of democracy. Full bio
Garry Kasparov is esteemed by many as the greatest chess player of all time. Now he’s engaged in a game with far higher stakes: the preservation of democracy. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
This story begins in 1985,
0
960
2976
這個故事開始於 1985 年，
00:15
when at age 22,
1
3960
1976
我在 22 歲時，
00:17
I became the World Chess Champion
2
5960
2376
打敗了卡爾波夫，
00:20
after beating Anatoly Karpov.
3
8360
3200
成為世界棋王。
00:24
Earlier that year,
4
12480
1256
那年年初，
00:25
I played what is called
simultaneous exhibition
simultaneous exhibition
5
13760
3616
我參加了所謂的「車輪戰」，
00:29
against 32 of the world's
best chess-playing machines
best chess-playing machines
6
17400
4296
對抗 32 個世界最強博弈機器，
00:33
in Hamburg, Germany.
7
21720
1360
地點在德國漢堡。
00:36
I won all the games,
8
24160
1200
我大獲全勝。
00:38
and then it was not considered
much of a surprise
much of a surprise
9
26560
3176
在那時，我能同時戰勝 32 台電腦
00:41
that I could beat 32 computers
at the same time.
at the same time.
10
29760
4040
並不讓人意外。
00:46
To me, that was the golden age.
11
34480
2576
對我而言，那是我的黃金年代。
00:49
(Laughter)
12
37080
2096
（笑聲）
00:51
Machines were weak,
13
39200
1520
在那時，機器特別弱小，
00:53
and my hair was strong.
14
41680
1336
與此相反，我的頭髮十分強韌。
00:55
(Laughter)
15
43040
2200
（笑聲）
00:58
Just 12 years later,
16
46720
2056
只不過經過了 12 年，
01:00
I was fighting for my life
against just one computer
against just one computer
17
48800
4616
我卻得用盡吃奶的力氣
與單單一台電腦相博弈，
與單單一台電腦相博弈，
《新聞週刊》的封面將這場比賽稱為
01:05
in a match
18
53440
1200
01:07
called by the cover of "Newsweek"
19
55360
2056
01:09
"The Brain's Last Stand."
20
57440
1776
「人腦的最後一搏」。
01:11
No pressure.
21
59240
1216
不要有壓力。
01:12
(Laughter)
22
60480
1520
（笑聲）
01:15
From mythology to science fiction,
23
63040
2576
從神話到科幻小說，
01:17
human versus machine
24
65640
2736
人類對抗機器
01:20
has been often portrayed
as a matter of life and death.
as a matter of life and death.
25
68400
2760
總是被描述成殊死搏鬥。
01:23
John Henry,
26
71960
1576
約翰亨利，
01:25
called the steel-driving man
27
73560
1696
被稱為「鋼鑽人」，
01:27
in the 19th century
African American folk legend,
African American folk legend,
28
75280
3776
是十九世紀非裔美國人的民間傳奇。
01:31
was pitted in a race
29
79080
1376
在一場比賽中，他與氣鑽機競爭，
01:32
against a steam-powered hammer
30
80480
2736
鑽破山石，鑿出隧道。
01:35
bashing a tunnel through mountain rock.
31
83240
2360
01:38
John Henry's legend
is a part of a long historical narrative
is a part of a long historical narrative
32
86800
4200
約翰亨利的傳奇
是歷史長流中的一部份，
是歷史長流中的一部份，
01:43
pitting humanity versus technology.
33
91680
3080
代表著人性與技術的拼鬥。
01:48
And this competitive rhetoric
is standard now.
is standard now.
34
96200
2880
而在今日，「人與機器之爭」
這種輪調已成常態。
這種輪調已成常態。
01:51
We are in a race against the machines,
35
99560
1960
我們正與機器展開角逐，
01:54
in a fight or even in a war.
36
102360
2080
這是一場鬥爭，甚至一場戰爭。
01:57
Jobs are being killed off.
37
105880
1616
工作正在不斷減少。
01:59
People are being replaced
as if they had vanished from the Earth.
as if they had vanished from the Earth.
38
107520
3560
人們被機器取代，彷彿已淪為配角。
02:04
It's enough to think that the movies
like "The Terminator" or "The Matrix"
like "The Terminator" or "The Matrix"
39
112240
3496
所有的一切足以讓人相信：
《魔鬼終結者》或《駭客任務》
《魔鬼終結者》或《駭客任務》
02:07
are nonfiction.
40
115760
1200
並不是杞人憂天。
02:11
There are very few instances of an arena
41
119640
4320
極罕見到在一場比賽中
人類的血肉之軀和智慧
02:17
where the human body and mind
can compete on equal terms
can compete on equal terms
42
125360
4256
能夠與電腦或機器人平等競爭。
02:21
with a computer or a robot.
43
129639
1841
02:24
Actually, I wish there were a few more.
44
132280
1858
事實上我期待能有更多這樣的情況。
02:27
Instead,
45
135760
1200
但是，
02:29
it was my blessing and my curse
46
137840
4656
這是我的福氣也是詛咒，
02:34
to literally become the proverbial man
47
142520
2696
我成為眾所周知的名人，沒誇大，
02:37
in the man versus machine competition
48
145240
3096
人們至今仍然會談論
02:40
that everybody is still talking about.
49
148360
1880
這場人對抗機器的比賽。
02:45
In the most famous human-machine
competition since John Henry,
competition since John Henry,
50
153120
5016
在這場自約翰亨利以來
最出名的人類機器競賽中，
最出名的人類機器競賽中，
02:50
I played two matches
51
158160
2576
我參與了兩場比賽，
02:52
against the IBM supercomputer, Deep Blue.
52
160760
3440
對抗 IBM 的超級電腦「深藍」。
02:59
Nobody remembers
that I won the first match --
that I won the first match --
53
167040
2176
沒有人記得我贏了第一場比賽。
03:01
(Laughter)
54
169240
2336
（笑聲）
03:03
(Applause)
55
171600
3400
（掌聲）
03:07
In Philadelphia, before losing the rematch
the following year in New York.
the following year in New York.
56
175920
4976
在費城贏得了首場比賽。
而隔年在紐約第二次比賽，我輸了。
03:12
But I guess that's fair.
57
180920
1760
但我想那是公平的。
03:16
There is no day in history,
special calendar entry
special calendar entry
58
184320
5096
史上未曾有一天記錄著
03:21
for all the people
who failed to climb Mt. Everest
who failed to climb Mt. Everest
59
189440
3496
那些沒能成功登頂聖母峰的人們，
03:24
before Sir Edmund Hillary
and Tenzing Norgay
and Tenzing Norgay
60
192960
2736
直到艾德蒙希拉蕊爵士和丹增諾蓋
03:27
made it to the top.
61
195720
1200
攻頂成功青史留名。
03:29
And in 1997, I was still
the world champion
the world champion
62
197960
3760
進到 1997 年我仍是世界冠軍，
03:36
when chess computers finally came of age.
63
204520
4200
那時我的機器對手終於成熟了。
03:41
I was Mt. Everest,
64
209520
1976
我是聖母峰，
03:43
and Deep Blue reached the summit.
65
211520
1600
而深藍攀上了山巔。
03:46
I should say of course,
not that Deep Blue did it,
not that Deep Blue did it,
66
214600
4056
我應該說，當然，這不是深藍辦到的，
03:50
but its human creators --
67
218680
2136
是它的人類創造者辦到的：
03:52
Anantharaman, Campbell, Hoane, Hsu.
68
220840
3336
阿南蕯拉曼、坎柏、洪恩、許峰雄。
03:56
Hats off to them.
69
224200
1200
在此向他們致敬。
03:58
As always, machine's triumph
was a human triumph,
was a human triumph,
70
226840
4416
一如既往，
機器的勝利其實是人類的勝利，
04:03
something we tend to forget when humans
are surpassed by our own creations.
are surpassed by our own creations.
71
231280
4760
當我們人類被自身的創造物所超越時
我們常常會忘了這一點。
我們常常會忘了這一點。
04:10
Deep Blue was victorious,
72
238360
1440
深藍的確獲勝了，
04:13
but was it intelligent?
73
241400
1200
但它是智慧的嗎？
04:15
No, no it wasn't,
74
243360
1760
不，它不是，
04:18
at least not in the way Alan Turing
and other founders of computer science
and other founders of computer science
75
246200
5056
至少不是艾倫圖靈及
其他計算機科學之父
其他計算機科學之父
04:23
had hoped.
76
251280
1200
所希望的那樣。
04:25
It turned out that chess
could be crunched by brute force,
could be crunched by brute force,
77
253240
4776
結果是，西洋棋臣服於蠻力之下，
04:30
once hardware got fast enough
78
258040
4256
只要硬體性能夠強勁，
04:34
and algorithms got smart enough.
79
262320
2960
且演算法夠精妙，就可以做到。
04:38
Although by the definition of the output,
80
266760
3696
不過從博弈中的表現來定義，
04:42
grandmaster-level chess,
81
270480
3216
西洋棋特級大師等級，
04:45
Deep Blue was intelligent.
82
273720
1280
深藍的確是智慧的。
04:49
But even at the incredible speed,
83
277320
2400
但即使性能如此之強，
04:52
200 million positions per second,
84
280560
3200
每秒計算兩億步棋，
04:57
Deep Blue's method
85
285360
1200
深藍的方法
04:59
provided little of the dreamed-of insight
into the mysteries of human intelligence.
into the mysteries of human intelligence.
86
287360
6600
無法提供我們期待的洞見
來讓我們深索人類智能之謎。
05:08
Soon,
87
296960
1816
不用多久，
05:10
machines will be taxi drivers
88
298800
2576
機器將會擔任計程車駕駛、
05:13
and doctors and professors,
89
301400
2416
醫生、教授，
05:15
but will they be "intelligent?"
90
303840
2600
但它們會有「智慧」嗎？
05:19
I would rather leave these definitions
91
307840
2496
我更想把這些定義留給
哲學家和字典。
哲學家和字典。
05:22
to the philosophers and to the dictionary.
92
310360
3560
05:27
What really matters is how we humans
93
315440
3880
重要的是，我們人類對於
05:32
feel about living and working
with these machines.
with these machines.
94
320320
3600
跟這些機器一同居住、
工作有什麼感受。
工作有什麼感受。
05:38
When I first met Deep Blue
in 1996 in February,
in 1996 in February,
95
326160
5256
當我在 1996 年 2 月
初次遇見深藍時，
初次遇見深藍時，
05:43
I had been the world champion
for more than 10 years,
for more than 10 years,
96
331440
2600
我保有世界冠軍的頭銜已超過十年，
05:48
and I had played 182
world championship games
world championship games
97
336080
4016
曾參與過 182 場世界冠軍賽，
05:52
and hundreds of games against
other top players in other competitions.
other top players in other competitions.
98
340120
5096
以及數以百計
和其他頂尖玩家交手的賽事。
和其他頂尖玩家交手的賽事。
05:57
I knew what to expect from my opponents
99
345240
5056
我可以預期我的對手，
06:02
and what to expect from myself.
100
350320
1680
我也可以預期我自己。
06:04
I was used to measure their moves
101
352680
5176
我習慣于酌量他們的每步棋，
06:09
and to gauge their emotional state
102
357880
3616
判斷他們的情緒狀態，
06:13
by watching their body language
and looking into their eyes.
and looking into their eyes.
103
361520
3840
方法是觀察他們的肢體語言
以及注視著他們的眼睛。
以及注視著他們的眼睛。
06:17
And then I sat across
the chessboard from Deep Blue.
the chessboard from Deep Blue.
104
365880
4000
接著，我隔著棋盤，
與深藍相對而坐。
與深藍相對而坐。
06:24
I immediately sensed something new,
105
372960
2856
我立即有了新的感受，
06:27
something unsettling.
106
375840
1320
使人不安的感受。
06:31
You might experience a similar feeling
107
379440
2800
你可能也有過類似的感受，
06:35
the first time you ride
in a driverless car
in a driverless car
108
383320
2536
比如當你初次坐上
無人駕駛車輛時的感受，
無人駕駛車輛時的感受，
06:37
or the first time your new computer
manager issues an order at work.
manager issues an order at work.
109
385880
4840
或是聽到你的新任電腦經理
初次下達工作指令時的感受。
初次下達工作指令時的感受。
06:45
But when I sat at that first game,
110
393800
3120
但當我比賽第一局時
06:50
I couldn't be sure
111
398080
2136
我無法確定
06:52
what is this thing capable of.
112
400240
3680
這東西有什麼能耐。
06:56
Technology can advance in leaps,
and IBM had invested heavily.
and IBM had invested heavily.
113
404920
3160
技術的進步有時會突飛猛進，
且 IBM 投資相當大。
且 IBM 投資相當大。
07:00
I lost that game.
114
408680
1200
我輸了那一局。
07:04
And I couldn't help wondering,
115
412320
1776
我忍不住會想，
07:06
might it be invincible?
116
414120
1560
它有可能是無敵的嗎？
07:08
Was my beloved game of chess over?
117
416600
2360
我摯愛的西洋棋賽結束了嗎？
07:12
These were human doubts, human fears,
118
420800
4136
這些是人類的懷疑、人類的恐懼，
07:16
and the only thing I knew for sure
119
424960
1680
我只能確定一件事：
07:19
was that my opponent Deep Blue
had no such worries at all.
had no such worries at all.
120
427400
2896
我的對手深藍完全沒有這些擔憂。
07:22
(Laughter)
121
430320
1760
（笑聲）
07:25
I fought back
122
433920
1400
在受到這令我身心交瘁的
一擊後，我還擊回去，
一擊後，我還擊回去，
07:28
after this devastating blow
123
436400
1680
07:31
to win the first match,
124
439000
1200
贏得了第一場比賽，
07:32
but the writing was on the wall.
125
440960
1640
但凶兆已然顯現。
07:36
I eventually lost to the machine
126
444400
2136
我最終敗給了機器，
07:38
but I didn't suffer the fate of John Henry
127
446560
3056
但我沒有步上約翰亨利的後塵。
07:41
who won but died
with his hammer in his hand.
with his hammer in his hand.
128
449640
3040
他在勝利中與世長辭，
手中還拿著錘子。
手中還拿著錘子。
（繪畫《約翰亨利握着錘子離世》，
Palmer C. Hayden）
Palmer C. Hayden）
（洛杉磯，非裔美國人藝術博物館）
07:49
It turned out that the world of chess
129
457720
2536
結果，西洋棋的世界
07:52
still wanted to have
a human chess champion.
a human chess champion.
130
460280
3240
仍然想要有個人類棋王。
07:56
And even today,
131
464920
1680
即使現今，
08:00
when a free chess app
on the latest mobile phone
on the latest mobile phone
132
468080
3456
當免費的手機西洋棋 app ，
08:03
is stronger than Deep Blue,
133
471560
2016
比深藍還強，
08:05
people are still playing chess,
134
473600
1480
人們仍然在下西洋棋，
08:08
even more than ever before.
135
476680
2240
甚至比以前更愛下棋。
08:11
Doomsayers predicted
that nobody would touch the game
that nobody would touch the game
136
479800
3216
災難預言者預測沒人會再碰西洋棋，
08:15
that could be conquered by the machine,
137
483040
2256
因為西洋棋已被機器給征服，
08:17
and they were wrong, proven wrong,
138
485320
2216
但證據證明他們錯了，
08:19
but doomsaying has always been
a popular pastime
a popular pastime
139
487560
3456
但災難預言一直是種熱門消遣，
08:23
when it comes to technology.
140
491040
1360
特別是在與科技有關時。
08:26
What I learned from my own experience
141
494360
2736
我從我自己的經驗學到的是
08:29
is that we must face our fears
142
497120
4656
我們必須要面對恐懼
08:33
if we want to get the most
out of our technology,
out of our technology,
143
501800
3720
以讓科技發揮得淋漓盡致；
08:38
and we must conquer those fears
144
506360
2376
我們必須要克服恐懼，
08:40
if we want to get the best
out of our humanity.
out of our humanity.
145
508760
5240
以讓人性充分發揮。
08:48
While licking my wounds,
146
516120
1775
當我在舔傷口時，
08:49
I got a lot of inspiration
147
517919
1961
我得到很多靈感，
08:53
from my battles against Deep Blue.
148
521080
2695
來自我和深藍的對戰。
08:55
As the old Russian saying goes,
if you can't beat them, join them.
if you can't beat them, join them.
149
523799
3121
有句很老的俄國諺語，
如果你不能打敗他們，就加入他們。
如果你不能打敗他們，就加入他們。
09:00
Then I thought,
150
528880
1376
接著，我想，
09:02
what if I could play with a computer --
151
530280
2336
如果我能和一台電腦一起 ……
09:04
together with a computer at my side,
combining our strengths,
combining our strengths,
152
532640
3160
有一台電腦作為盟友，
將我們倆的強項結合，
將我們倆的強項結合，
09:09
human intuition
plus machine's calculation,
plus machine's calculation,
153
537160
3776
人類直覺加上機器計算能力，
09:12
human strategy, machine tactics,
154
540960
2696
人類策略，機器戰術，
09:15
human experience, machine's memory.
155
543680
2416
人類經驗，機器記憶。
09:18
Could it be the perfect game ever played?
156
546120
2200
那是否會是史上最完美的比賽？
09:22
My idea came to life
157
550000
1680
我的想法實現了。
09:24
in 1998 under the name of Advanced Chess
158
552920
3376
在 1998 年
以「進階西洋棋」之名，
以「進階西洋棋」之名，
09:28
when I played this human-plus-machine
competition against another elite player.
competition against another elite player.
159
556320
5680
我參與了人類搭配機器的比賽
對抗另一位精英玩家。
對抗另一位精英玩家。
09:35
But in this first experiment,
160
563280
1896
但在這第一次實驗中，
09:37
we both failed to combine
human and machine skills effectively.
human and machine skills effectively.
161
565200
6360
我們都失敗了，沒能有效
結合人類與機器的技巧。
結合人類與機器的技巧。
09:46
Advanced Chess found
its home on the internet,
its home on the internet,
162
574920
2240
「進階西洋棋」在網路上找到它的家，
09:50
and in 2005, a so-called
freestyle chess tournament
freestyle chess tournament
163
578160
4856
2005 年，所謂的
「自由式西洋棋巡迴賽」
「自由式西洋棋巡迴賽」
09:55
produced a revelation.
164
583040
1360
帶來了一個啟示。
09:59
A team of grandmasters
and top machines participated,
and top machines participated,
165
587240
3536
參與者包括大師級玩家以及頂尖機器，
10:02
but the winners were not grandmasters,
166
590800
2736
但贏家不是大師，
10:05
not a supercomputer.
167
593560
1360
也不是超級電腦。
10:07
The winners were a pair
of amateur American chess players
of amateur American chess players
168
595680
4336
贏家是一對業餘的美國西洋棋玩家，
10:12
operating three ordinary PCs
at the same time.
at the same time.
169
600040
3160
他們同時操作三台普通個人電腦。
10:17
Their skill of coaching their machines
170
605560
3016
他們訓練機器所使用的技巧
10:20
effectively counteracted
the superior chess knowledge
the superior chess knowledge
171
608600
5776
有效地戰勝了大師級對手的
優秀西洋棋經驗
優秀西洋棋經驗
10:26
of their grandmaster opponents
172
614400
1576
以及其他人更強大的計算能力。
10:28
and much greater
computational power of others.
computational power of others.
173
616000
4160
10:33
And I reached this formulation.
174
621600
1960
我得到了這個組合公式：
10:36
A weak human player plus a machine
175
624560
3376
一個能力不強的人類玩家加一台機器
10:39
plus a better process is superior
176
627960
3256
再加上一個較優的操作流程，
勝過單單一台非常強大的機器，
10:43
to a very powerful machine alone,
177
631240
2416
10:45
but more remarkably,
is superior to a strong human player
is superior to a strong human player
178
633680
3896
更棒的是還勝過
一個厲害的人類玩家加上機器，
一個厲害的人類玩家加上機器，
10:49
plus machine
179
637600
1960
以及一個次等的操作流程。
10:53
and an inferior process.
180
641120
2400
10:58
This convinced me that we would need
181
646360
2120
這讓我意識到，我們需要
11:02
better interfaces
to help us coach our machines
to help us coach our machines
182
650000
3680
更好的界面來協助我們訓練機器，
11:06
towards more useful intelligence.
183
654520
1720
導出更有用的智慧。
11:10
Human plus machine isn't the future,
184
658320
3296
人類加上機器不在未來
11:13
it's the present.
185
661640
1216
而是現在。
11:14
Everybody that's used online translation
186
662880
4136
大家都用線上翻譯，
11:19
to get the gist of a news article
from a foreign newspaper,
from a foreign newspaper,
187
667040
4296
來了解外國報紙文章的要點，
11:23
knowing its far from perfect.
188
671360
1640
即使知道這翻譯遠非完美。
11:25
Then we use our human experience
189
673680
2096
接著，我們用我們的人類經驗
11:27
to make sense out of that,
190
675800
2096
從翻譯中理出意義來，
11:29
and then the machine
learns from our corrections.
learns from our corrections.
191
677920
2776
接著機器從我們的修正中深入學習。
11:32
This model is spreading and investing
in medical diagnosis, security analysis.
in medical diagnosis, security analysis.
192
680720
4960
這個模型被廣泛應用在
醫療診斷和安全性分析方面。
醫療診斷和安全性分析方面。
11:38
The machine crunches data,
193
686440
2120
機器計算大量的數據，
11:41
calculates probabilities,
194
689320
1736
計算可能性，
11:43
gets 80 percent of the way, 90 percent,
195
691080
3656
完成了 80%、90% 的工作，
11:46
making it easier for analysis
196
694760
4376
讓人類這一方更容易進行分析和決策。
11:51
and decision-making of the human party.
197
699160
2600
11:54
But you are not going to send your kids
198
702280
4840
但你送孩子上學時
12:00
to school in a self-driving car
with 90 percent accuracy,
with 90 percent accuracy,
199
708000
3560
不會使用只 90% 精確的自駕車，
12:04
even with 99 percent.
200
712600
1600
甚至 99% 也不行。
12:07
So we need a leap forward
201
715560
2856
所以我們需要更進一步，
12:10
to add a few more crucial decimal places.
202
718440
6160
再加上幾位重要的小數。
12:19
Twenty years after
my match with Deep Blue,
my match with Deep Blue,
203
727160
4040
在我與深藍的第二場比賽 20 年之後，
12:24
second match,
204
732200
1616
12:25
this sensational
"The Brain's Last Stand" headline
"The Brain's Last Stand" headline
205
733840
6296
這個聳動的「人腦的最後一搏」標題
12:32
has become commonplace
206
740160
1576
變得很常見，
12:33
as intelligent machines
207
741760
2536
因為智慧機器
12:36
move
208
744320
1200
滲入了每個領域，
且幾乎每天都是如此。
且幾乎每天都是如此。
12:38
in every sector, seemingly every day.
209
746560
2200
12:42
But unlike in the past,
210
750160
3096
但不像過去，
12:45
when machines replaced
211
753280
1640
過去機器是取代
12:48
farm animals, manual labor,
212
756480
2376
農場動物、手工勞力，
現在它們要與擁有大學文憑
和政治影響力的人們競爭。
和政治影響力的人們競爭。
12:50
now they are coming
after people with college degrees
after people with college degrees
213
758880
2496
12:53
and political influence.
214
761400
1280
12:56
And as someone
who fought machines and lost,
who fought machines and lost,
215
764120
2096
身為一個曾和機器對戰
並敗下陣來的人，
並敗下陣來的人，
12:58
I am here to tell you
this is excellent, excellent news.
this is excellent, excellent news.
216
766240
2640
我在此告訴大家，這是大好消息。
13:03
Eventually, every profession
217
771000
2216
最終，每個行業
13:05
will have to feel these pressures
218
773240
2096
都會感受到這些壓力，
13:07
or else it will mean humanity
has ceased to make progress.
has ceased to make progress.
219
775360
5600
不然就意味著人性已經停止進步了。
13:14
We don't
220
782760
1200
我們沒得選
13:17
get to choose
221
785440
1720
13:20
when and where
technological progress stops.
technological progress stops.
222
788480
2720
科技進展何時何地會停止。
13:25
We cannot
223
793160
1360
我們不能放慢腳步。
13:27
slow down.
224
795960
1496
13:29
In fact,
225
797480
1816
事實上，
13:31
we have to speed up.
226
799320
1920
我們要加快腳步。
13:36
Our technology excels at removing
227
804600
2640
我們的科技擅長
排除人生中的困難和不確定性，
13:41
difficulties and uncertainties
from our lives,
from our lives,
228
809200
3360
13:47
and so we must seek out
229
815000
2816
所以我們必須要找到
13:49
ever more difficult,
230
817840
1856
更困難、
13:51
ever more uncertain challenges.
231
819720
4080
更不確定的挑戰。
14:00
Machines have
232
828200
1200
機器擅長計算。
14:03
calculations.
233
831880
1816
14:05
We have understanding.
234
833720
1576
我們強在思維。
14:07
Machines have instructions.
235
835320
2040
機器有指令，
14:10
We have purpose.
236
838840
1856
我們有目的。
14:12
Machines have
237
840720
2280
機器有客觀性，
14:17
objectivity.
238
845080
1216
14:18
We have passion.
239
846320
1200
我們有熱情。
14:20
We should not worry
about what our machines can do today.
about what our machines can do today.
240
848600
5976
我們不用擔心
現今的機器能做到什麼，
現今的機器能做到什麼，
14:26
Instead, we should worry
about what they still cannot do today,
about what they still cannot do today,
241
854600
4576
而應該要擔心
現今它們仍做不到什麼。
現今它們仍做不到什麼。
14:31
because we will need the help
of the new, intelligent machines
of the new, intelligent machines
242
859200
5496
因為我們將需要新的智慧機器
14:36
to turn our grandest dreams into reality.
243
864720
4080
來協助我們實現偉大的夢想。
14:42
And if we fail,
244
870000
1320
如果我們失敗，
14:44
if we fail, it's not because our machines
are too intelligent,
are too intelligent,
245
872240
4656
如果我們失敗，那不會是
因為我們的機器太聰明，
因為我們的機器太聰明，
14:48
or not intelligent enough.
246
876920
1400
或不夠聰明。
14:51
If we fail, it's because
we grew complacent
we grew complacent
247
879200
3080
如果我們失敗，
那是因為我們變得自滿，
那是因為我們變得自滿，
14:55
and limited our ambitions.
248
883680
1560
限制了我們的野心。
14:58
Our humanity is not defined by any skill,
249
886520
3040
我們的人性並不是
由任何技能來定義的，
由任何技能來定義的，
15:03
like swinging a hammer
or even playing chess.
or even playing chess.
250
891280
2680
比如揮舞錘子或甚至下西洋棋。
15:06
There's one thing only a human can do.
251
894560
3016
有一件事，只有人類才能做到，
15:09
That's dream.
252
897600
1200
就是夢想。
15:12
So let us dream big.
253
900120
2536
所以，讓我們立下宏願。
15:14
Thank you.
254
902680
1216
謝謝大家。
15:15
(Applause)
255
903920
3887
（鼓掌）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Garry Kasparov - Grandmaster, analystGarry Kasparov is esteemed by many as the greatest chess player of all time. Now he’s engaged in a game with far higher stakes: the preservation of democracy.
Why you should listen
Garry Kasparov became the youngest world champion ever at 22 in 1985 and spent twenty years as the world's top-rated player. His legendary matches against the IBM supercomputer Deep Blue in 1996 and 1997 made him a central figure in artificial intelligence and the evolution of the human-machine relationship. He retired from chess in 2005 to become a leader of the Russian pro-democracy movement against the rising dictatorship of Vladimir Putin. He is the chairman of the New York-based Human Rights Foundation and has become a powerful voice for individual freedom worldwide. As a Senior Visiting Fellow at the Oxford Martin School, Kasparov specializes in interdisciplinary collaboration and, as he puts it, "how our technology can make us more human." He is a member of the executive board of the Foundation for Responsible Robotics.
Kasparov's latest book is Deep Thinking: Where Machine Intelligence Ends and Human Creativity Begins, which details his legendary matches against Deep Blue and shares his optimistic insights into our human plus machine future. His 2015 book Winter Is Coming detailed the rise of Putin's Russia as well as Kasparov's persecution and self-exile, and it serves chilling warnings of reactionary forces gathering in the West.
Garry Kasparov | Speaker | TED.com