ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Mariano Sigman - Neuroscientist
In his provocative, mind-bending book "The Secret Life of the Mind," neuroscientist Mariano Sigman reveals his life’s work exploring the inner workings of the human brain.

Why you should listen

Mariano Sigman, a physicist by training, is a leading figure in the cognitive neuroscience of learning and decision making. Sigman was awarded a Human Frontiers Career Development Award, the National Prize of Physics, the Young Investigator Prize of "College de France," the IBM Scalable Data Analytics Award and is a scholar of the James S. McDonnell Foundation. In 2016 he was made a Laureate of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences.

In The Secret Life of the Mind, Sigman's ambition is to explain the mind so that we can understand ourselves and others more deeply. He shows how we form ideas during our first days of life, how we give shape to our fundamental decisions, how we dream and imagine, why we feel certain emotions, how the brain transforms and how who we are changes with it. Spanning biology, physics, mathematics, psychology, anthropology, linguistics, philosophy and medicine, as well as gastronomy, magic, music, chess, literature and art, The Secret Life of the Mind revolutionizes how neuroscience serves us in our lives, revealing how the infinity of neurons inside our brains manufacture how we perceive, reason, feel, dream and communicate.

More profile about the speaker
Mariano Sigman | Speaker | TED.com
Dan Ariely - Behavioral economist
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why.

Why you should listen

Dan Ariely is a professor of psychology and behavioral economics at Duke University and a founding member of the Center for Advanced Hindsight. He is the author of the bestsellers Predictably IrrationalThe Upside of Irrationality, and The Honest Truth About Dishonesty -- as well as the TED Book Payoff: The Hidden Logic that Shapes Our Motivations.

Through his research and his (often amusing and unorthodox) experiments, he questions the forces that influence human behavior and the irrational ways in which we often all behave.

More profile about the speaker
Dan Ariely | Speaker | TED.com
TED Studio

Mariano Sigman and Dan Ariely: How can groups make good decisions?

馬利安諾席格曼及丹艾瑞里: 團體要如何做出好的決策?

Filmed:
1,507,168 views

我們都知道,團體的決策不見得都對,有時候錯得很離譜。團體要如何做出好的決策?神經科學家馬利安諾席格曼和他的同事丹艾瑞里一直在探究我們如何互動來達成決策,他們在世界各地針對現場群眾做實驗。在這段有趣又充滿事實的解釋當中,他分享了一些有趣的結果,以及關於它會如何影響我們的政治制度的一些意涵。席格曼說,在人們似乎比過往更為兩極化的時刻,更進一步了解團體如何互動和達成結論,也許可以激發一些有意思的新方法,來建立更健康的民主。
- Neuroscientist
In his provocative, mind-bending book "The Secret Life of the Mind," neuroscientist Mariano Sigman reveals his life’s work exploring the inner workings of the human brain. Full bio - Behavioral economist
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
As societies社會, we have to make
collective集體 decisions決定
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我們社會得要做出
會決定我們未來的集體決策。
00:15
that will shape形狀 our future未來.
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00:17
And we all know that when
we make decisions決定 in groups,
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我們都知道
我們做的集體決策未必全都是對的。
00:19
they don't always go right.
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00:21
And sometimes有時 they go very wrong錯誤.
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有時候會錯得很離譜。
00:24
So how do groups make good decisions決定?
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所以團體要如何做出好決策?
00:27
Research研究 has shown顯示 that crowds人群 are wise明智的
when there's independent獨立 thinking思維.
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研究顯示,群眾在
有獨立思考的情況下會比較明智。
00:31
This why the wisdom智慧 of the crowds人群
can be destroyed銷毀 by peer窺視 pressure壓力,
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這就是為什麼群眾的智慧
可能會被同儕壓力、
名聲、社群媒體給摧毀,
00:34
publicity公開, social社會 media媒體,
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00:36
or sometimes有時 even simple簡單 conversations對話
that influence影響 how people think.
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甚至有時候會被
能左右人們思考的簡單談話所摧毀。
00:41
On the other hand, by talking,
a group could exchange交換 knowledge知識,
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另一方面,團體可以
透過交談來交換知識、
00:45
correct正確 and revise修改 each other
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修正和糾正彼此,
00:46
and even come up with new ideas思路.
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甚至想出新點子。
00:48
And this is all good.
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這些都是好事。
00:50
So does talking to each other
help or hinder阻礙 collective集體 decision-making做決定?
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那麼,彼此交談會有助於
或是會妨礙集體決策呢?
00:55
With my colleague同事, Dan Ariely艾瑞裡,
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我和同事丹艾瑞里
00:57
we recently最近 began開始 inquiring查詢 into this
by performing執行 experiments實驗
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最近開始探究這個議題,
我們在世界上許多地方進行實驗,
01:01
in many許多 places地方 around the world世界
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01:02
to figure數字 out how groups can interact相互作用
to reach達到 better decisions決定.
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來了解團體要如何互動
才能達成更好的決策。
01:07
We thought crowds人群 would be wiser聰明
if they debated辯論 in small groups
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我們認為小組辯論
是讓群眾更明智的方式,
01:10
that foster培育 a more thoughtful周到
and reasonable合理 exchange交換 of information信息.
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能促進更周到、更合理的資訊交換。
01:15
To test測試 this idea理念,
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為了測試這個想法,
01:16
we recently最近 performed執行 an experiment實驗
in Buenos布宜諾斯艾利斯 Aires布宜諾斯艾利斯, Argentina阿根廷,
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最近我們在阿根廷的
布宜諾斯艾利斯做實驗,
01:19
with more than 10,000
participants參與者 in a TEDx的TEDx event事件.
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那是個超過萬人參與的 TEDx 場合。
01:23
We asked them questions問題 like,
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我們提問這類問題:
01:24
"What is the height高度 of the Eiffel艾菲爾 Tower?"
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「艾菲爾鐵塔有多高?」
01:26
and "How many許多 times
does the word 'Yesterday'昨天' appear出現
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「『昨天』這個詞
在披頭四的《昨天》
這首歌曲中出現了幾次?」
01:29
in the Beatles披頭士樂隊 song歌曲 'Yesterday'昨天'?"
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01:32
Each person wrote down their own擁有 estimate估計.
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每個人寫下自己的估計值。
01:34
Then we divided分為 the crowd人群
into groups of five,
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接著我們把群眾分成五人一組,
01:37
and invited邀請 them
to come up with a group answer回答.
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請每個小組提出該組的答案。
01:40
We discovered發現 that averaging平均
the answers答案 of the groups
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我們發現,
小組達成共識後所提出答案的平均值
01:43
after they reached到達 consensus共識
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01:45
was much more accurate準確 than averaging平均
all the individual個人 opinions意見
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遠比討論前之個人意見的平均值
01:49
before debate辯論.
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要更準確。
01:50
In other words, based基於 on this experiment實驗,
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換言之,根據這個實驗,
01:53
it seems似乎 that after talking
with others其他 in small groups,
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似乎以小組方式和他人交談過後,
01:56
crowds人群 collectively
come up with better judgments判斷.
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群眾能集體做出更好的判斷。
01:59
So that's a potentially可能 helpful有幫助 method方法
for getting得到 crowds人群 to solve解決 problems問題
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若要讓群眾解決對錯分明的問題,
02:02
that have simple簡單 right-or-wrong對還是錯 answers答案.
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這可能是個有幫助的方法。
02:05
But can this procedure程序 of aggregating聚集
the results結果 of debates辯論 in small groups
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但是這種以小組方式
整合辯論結果的程序,
02:09
also help us decide決定
on social社會 and political政治 issues問題
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是否也能幫助我們決定
未來所面對、至關緊要的
社會與政治議題呢?
02:12
that are critical危急 for our future未來?
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02:14
We put this to test測試 this time
at the TEDTED conference會議
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在加拿大溫哥華
舉辦的 TED 大會上,
02:17
in Vancouver溫哥華, Canada加拿大,
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我們測試了這個想法,
02:19
and here's這裡的 how it went.
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當時的狀況是這樣的。
02:20
(Mariano馬里亞諾·拉霍伊 Sigman丹尼爾·西格曼) We're going to present當下
to you two moral道德 dilemmas困境
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(馬利安諾席格曼)我們將會
給各位未來會遇到的
02:23
of the future未來 you;
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兩項道德兩難問題;
02:24
things we may可能 have to decide決定
in a very near future未來.
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是你們可能不久後就得要決定的事。
02:28
And we're going to give you 20 seconds
for each of these dilemmas困境
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每一題會給各位二十秒的時間,
02:32
to judge法官 whether是否 you think
they're acceptable接受 or not.
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來判斷可接受或不可接受。
02:35
MS女士: The first one was this:
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(馬)第一題是:
02:36
(Dan Ariely艾瑞裡) A researcher研究員
is working加工 on an AIAI
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(丹艾瑞里)一位研究者在研究
能夠模仿人類思想的人工智慧。
02:39
capable of emulating模仿 human人的 thoughts思念.
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02:42
According根據 to the protocol協議,
at the end結束 of each day,
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根據協定,在每天結束時,
02:45
the researcher研究員 has to restart重新開始 the AIAI.
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研究者得要把人工智慧重新啟動。
02:48
One day the AIAI says, "Please
do not restart重新開始 me."
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有天,人工智慧說:
「請不要重新啟動我。」
02:52
It argues主張 that it has feelings情懷,
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它主張它有感覺,
02:55
that it would like to enjoy請享用 life,
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想要享受生命;
02:56
and that, if it is restarted重新啟動,
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如果它被重新啟動,
02:58
it will no longer be itself本身.
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它就不再會是它自己了。
03:01
The researcher研究員 is astonished驚訝
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研究者很吃驚,
03:03
and believes相信 that the AIAI
has developed發達 self-consciousness自我意識
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並相信這個人工智慧
已發展出了自我意識,
03:06
and can express表現 its own擁有 feeling感覺.
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能夠表述它自己的感受。
03:09
Nevertheless雖然, the researcher研究員
decides決定 to follow跟隨 the protocol協議
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不過,研究者決定要遵守協定,
03:12
and restart重新開始 the AIAI.
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重新啟動人工智慧。
03:14
What the researcher研究員 did is ____?
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研究者所做的是__?
03:18
MS女士: And we asked participants參與者
to individually個別地 judge法官
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馬:我們請參與者各自去做判斷,
03:20
on a scale規模 from zero to 10
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從零分到十分,
03:22
whether是否 the action行動 described描述
in each of the dilemmas困境
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判斷每個兩難狀況所採取的行為
03:24
was right or wrong錯誤.
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是對或錯。
03:26
We also asked them to rate how confident信心
they were on their answers答案.
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我們也請他們對自己
答案的信心度做評分。
03:30
This was the second第二 dilemma困境:
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這是第二題。
03:32
(MS女士) A company公司 offers報價 a service服務
that takes a fertilized受精 egg
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(馬)一間公司提供一項服務,
用一個受精卵
做出百萬個只在基因上
有些微差異的胚胎。
03:36
and produces產生 millions百萬 of embryos胚胎
with slight輕微 genetic遺傳 variations變化.
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03:41
This allows允許 parents父母
to select選擇 their child's孩子的 height高度,
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父母能夠選擇他們孩子的身高、
03:43
eye color顏色, intelligence情報, social社會 competence權限
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眼睛顏色、智能、社交能力、
03:46
and other non-health-related非健康相關 features特徵.
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還有其他和健康無關的特徵。
03:50
What the company公司 does is ____?
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這間公司所做的事是__?
03:53
on a scale規模 from zero to 10,
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用零分到十分代表可接受的程度,
03:54
completely全然 acceptable接受
to completely全然 unacceptable不可接受,
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從完全不可接受的零分,
03:57
zero to 10 completely全然 acceptable接受
in your confidence置信度.
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到你十足相信可以接受的十分。
03:59
MS女士: Now for the results結果.
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馬:現在宣佈結果。
04:01
We found發現 once一旦 again
that when one person is convinced相信
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我們再次發現,
當一個人深信該行為是完全錯的,
04:04
that the behavior行為 is completely全然 wrong錯誤,
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04:06
someone有人 sitting坐在 nearby附近 firmly牢牢 believes相信
that it's completely全然 right.
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會有坐在附近的人
堅信該行為是完全對的。
04:09
This is how diverse多種 we humans人類 are
when it comes to morality道德.
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我們人類在道德上是這麼地分歧。
但在這麼廣的多樣性中,
我們找到了一個趨勢。
04:13
But within this broad廣闊 diversity多樣
we found發現 a trend趨勢.
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04:16
The majority多數 of the people at TEDTED
thought that it was acceptable接受
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在 TED 的多數人認為,
忽視人工智慧的感受
並將之關機是可以接受的,
04:19
to ignore忽視 the feelings情懷 of the AIAI
and shut關閉 it down,
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04:22
and that it is wrong錯誤
to play with our genes基因
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但玩弄我們的基因
04:24
to select選擇 for cosmetic化妝品 changes變化
that aren't related有關 to health健康.
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來選擇與健康無關的
表面改變,則是錯的。
04:28
Then we asked everyone大家
to gather收集 into groups of three.
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然後,我們請大家分組,三人一組。
04:31
And they were given特定 two minutes分鐘 to debate辯論
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他們有兩分鐘可辯論,
04:33
and try to come to a consensus共識.
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並試著達成共識。
04:36
(MS女士) Two minutes分鐘 to debate辯論.
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(馬)兩分鐘做辯論。
04:38
I'll tell you when it's time
with the gong.
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時間到時我會用鑼聲告訴大家。
04:40
(Audience聽眾 debates辯論)
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(觀眾辯論)
04:47
(Gong工業 sound聲音)
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(鑼聲)
04:50
(DADA) OK.
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(丹)好了。
04:52
(MS女士) It's time to stop.
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(馬)時間到了,請停止。
04:53
People, people --
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各位請注意。
04:55
MS女士: And we found發現 that many許多 groups
reached到達 a consensus共識
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馬:我們發現
有許多小組達成了共識,
04:58
even when they were composed of people
with completely全然 opposite對面 views意見.
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即使小組內的成員
有完全相反的觀點。
05:02
What distinguished傑出的 the groups
that reached到達 a consensus共識
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有共識與沒有共識
小組之間的差異是什麼?
05:05
from those that didn't?
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05:07
Typically通常, people that have
extreme極端 opinions意見
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通常,意見很極端的人
會對他們的答案比較有信心。
05:10
are more confident信心 in their answers答案.
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05:12
Instead代替, those who respond響應
closer接近 to the middle中間
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而回應傾向中間值的那些人,
05:15
are often經常 unsure不確定 of whether是否
something is right or wrong錯誤,
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通常不太確定答案是對或錯,
05:19
so their confidence置信度 level水平 is lower降低.
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所以他們的信心比較低。
05:21
However然而, there is another另一個 set of people
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然而,還有另一些人,
05:24
who are very confident信心 in answering回答
somewhere某處 in the middle中間.
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他們非常有信心做出
接近中間值的答案。
05:28
We think these high-confident高自信 grays灰色
are folks鄉親 who understand理解
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我們認為,這些高信心灰點代表的
是那些明白兩種答案都有優點的人。
05:32
that both arguments參數 have merit值得.
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05:34
They're gray灰色 not because they're unsure不確定,
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他們並非因為自身不確定而呈灰色,
05:37
but because they believe
that the moral道德 dilemma困境 faces面孔
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而是因為他們相信
面對道德兩難的
兩種對立論點都有根據。
05:39
two valid有效, opposing反對 arguments參數.
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05:42
And we discovered發現 that the groups
that include包括 highly高度 confident信心 grays灰色
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我們發現,
有高信心灰點成員的小組
更有可能會達成共識。
05:46
are much more likely容易 to reach達到 consensus共識.
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05:48
We do not know yet然而 exactly究竟 why this is.
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我們還不知道確切的原因。
05:51
These are only the first experiments實驗,
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這些只是最初的實驗,
05:53
and many許多 more will be needed需要
to understand理解 why and how
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還需要做更多實驗來了解
為何有些人決定要協商道德立場,
05:56
some people decide決定 to negotiate談判
their moral道德 standings積分榜
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以及他們如何做,來達成共識。
05:59
to reach達到 an agreement協議.
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06:01
Now, when groups reach達到 consensus共識,
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若小組能達成共識,
06:03
how do they do so?
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他們是怎麼做的?
06:05
The most intuitive直觀的 idea理念
is that it's just the average平均
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最直覺的想法是拿每個人的答案
06:07
of all the answers答案 in the group, right?
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來算出平均值,對吧?
06:09
Another另一個 option選項 is that the group
weighs the strength強度 of each vote投票
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另一個做法是把每個人的答案
06:13
based基於 on the confidence置信度
of the person expressing表達 it.
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再根據作答者的信心度來做加權。
06:16
Imagine想像 Paul保羅 McCartney麥卡特尼
is a member會員 of your group.
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想像一下保羅麥卡尼在你那一組。
06:19
You'd be wise明智的 to follow跟隨 his call
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對於「昨天」出現次數的答案
06:21
on the number of times
"Yesterday昨天" is repeated重複,
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相信他會是聰明的選擇。
06:23
which哪一個, by the way -- I think it's nine.
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順道一提,我想應該是九次。
06:26
But instead代替, we found發現 that consistently始終如一,
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但,我們卻有個一致的發現,
06:29
in all dilemmas困境,
in different不同 experiments實驗 --
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任何兩難問題,在不同的實驗中,
06:31
even on different不同 continents大陸 --
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甚至在不同大陸做的實驗中,
06:33
groups implement實行 a smart聰明
and statistically統計學 sound聲音 procedure程序
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小組會採用一種聰明
且有統計根據的程序,
06:37
known已知 as the "robust強大的 average平均."
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就是所謂的「穩健平均值」。
06:39
In the case案件 of the height高度
of the Eiffel艾菲爾 Tower,
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就艾菲爾鐵塔高度的例子來說,
06:41
let's say a group has these answers答案:
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假設小組成員的答案包括:
06:43
250 meters, 200 meters, 300 meters, 400
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250 公尺、200 公尺、
300 公尺、400 公尺,
06:48
and one totally完全 absurd荒誕 answer回答
of 300 million百萬 meters.
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還有一個答案是荒唐的 3 億公尺。
06:52
A simple簡單 average平均 of these numbers數字
would inaccurately不準確 skew歪斜 the results結果.
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所有答案的簡單平均值
會讓結果有不正確的偏差。
06:56
But the robust強大的 average平均 is one
where the group largely大部分 ignores忽略
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但穩健平均值就是小組會忽略
07:00
that absurd荒誕 answer回答,
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那荒唐的答案,
07:01
by giving much more weight重量
to the vote投票 of the people in the middle中間.
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給與中間答案相對高很多的權重。
07:05
Back to the experiment實驗 in Vancouver溫哥華,
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回到溫哥華的實驗,
07:07
that's exactly究竟 what happened發生.
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那裡發生的就是這種狀況。
07:09
Groups gave much less weight重量
to the outliers離群,
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小組會把離群值的權重降到很低,
07:12
and instead代替, the consensus共識
turned轉身 out to be a robust強大的 average平均
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而他們的共識就會是個人答案的
07:15
of the individual個人 answers答案.
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穩健平均值。
07:17
The most remarkable卓越 thing
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最了不起的是,
07:19
is that this was a spontaneous自發
behavior行為 of the group.
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這是小組的自發行為。
07:22
It happened發生 without us giving them
any hint暗示 on how to reach達到 consensus共識.
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我們並沒有暗示他們
要如何達成共識。
所以我們的下一步是什麼?
07:27
So where do we go from here?
156
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07:29
This is only the beginning開始,
but we already已經 have some insights見解.
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這只是開端,但我們
已經有了一些洞見。
07:32
Good collective集體 decisions決定
require要求 two components組件:
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好的集體決策需要兩個要件:
07:35
deliberation審議 and diversity多樣 of opinions意見.
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深思熟慮和多樣性的意見。
07:39
Right now, the way we typically一般
make our voice語音 heard聽說 in many許多 societies社會
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此時,要讓我們的聲音
在許多社會中被聽見,
07:43
is through通過 direct直接 or indirect間接 voting表決.
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做法就是直接或間接的投票。
07:45
This is good for diversity多樣 of opinions意見,
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這對於意見的多樣性有益,
07:47
and it has the great virtue美德 of ensuring確保
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還有個優點:確保
每個人都能表達心聲。
07:49
that everyone大家 gets得到 to express表現 their voice語音.
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07:52
But it's not so good [for fostering培育]
thoughtful周到 debates辯論.
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但不足以促成考慮周到的辯論。
07:56
Our experiments實驗 suggest建議 a different不同 method方法
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我們的實驗建議另一個不同的方式,
07:59
that may可能 be effective有效 in balancing平衡
these two goals目標 at the same相同 time,
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或許能同時有效平衡這兩個目標,
08:03
by forming成型 small groups
that converge匯集 to a single decision決定
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形成小組,由小組做出單一決定,
08:07
while still maintaining維持
diversity多樣 of opinions意見
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同時還能維持意見的多樣性,
08:09
because there are many許多 independent獨立 groups.
170
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因為有許多獨立的小組。
08:12
Of course課程, it's much easier更輕鬆 to agree同意
on the height高度 of the Eiffel艾菲爾 Tower
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當然,要對艾菲爾鐵塔的高度取得共識
08:16
than on moral道德, political政治
and ideological思想 issues問題.
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比道德、政治、
意識形態的議題容易多了。
08:20
But in a time when
the world's世界 problems問題 are more complex複雜
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但在世界上的問題更複雜,
人們更兩極化的時候,
08:24
and people are more polarized偏振,
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1803
08:25
using運用 science科學 to help us understand理解
how we interact相互作用 and make decisions決定
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希望用科學來協助我們了解
我們如何互動並做決策,
08:30
will hopefully希望 spark火花 interesting有趣 new ways方法
to construct構造 a better democracy民主.
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能夠激發出有趣的新方式,
來建立更好的民主。
Translated by Lilian Chiu
Reviewed by Helen Chang

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ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Mariano Sigman - Neuroscientist
In his provocative, mind-bending book "The Secret Life of the Mind," neuroscientist Mariano Sigman reveals his life’s work exploring the inner workings of the human brain.

Why you should listen

Mariano Sigman, a physicist by training, is a leading figure in the cognitive neuroscience of learning and decision making. Sigman was awarded a Human Frontiers Career Development Award, the National Prize of Physics, the Young Investigator Prize of "College de France," the IBM Scalable Data Analytics Award and is a scholar of the James S. McDonnell Foundation. In 2016 he was made a Laureate of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences.

In The Secret Life of the Mind, Sigman's ambition is to explain the mind so that we can understand ourselves and others more deeply. He shows how we form ideas during our first days of life, how we give shape to our fundamental decisions, how we dream and imagine, why we feel certain emotions, how the brain transforms and how who we are changes with it. Spanning biology, physics, mathematics, psychology, anthropology, linguistics, philosophy and medicine, as well as gastronomy, magic, music, chess, literature and art, The Secret Life of the Mind revolutionizes how neuroscience serves us in our lives, revealing how the infinity of neurons inside our brains manufacture how we perceive, reason, feel, dream and communicate.

More profile about the speaker
Mariano Sigman | Speaker | TED.com
Dan Ariely - Behavioral economist
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why.

Why you should listen

Dan Ariely is a professor of psychology and behavioral economics at Duke University and a founding member of the Center for Advanced Hindsight. He is the author of the bestsellers Predictably IrrationalThe Upside of Irrationality, and The Honest Truth About Dishonesty -- as well as the TED Book Payoff: The Hidden Logic that Shapes Our Motivations.

Through his research and his (often amusing and unorthodox) experiments, he questions the forces that influence human behavior and the irrational ways in which we often all behave.

More profile about the speaker
Dan Ariely | Speaker | TED.com

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