TED2016
Mariano Sigman: Your words may predict your future mental health
Mariano Sigman: Vaše riječi mogu predvidjeti budućnost vašeg mentalnog zdravlja
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Može li način na koji govorite i pišete danas predvidjeti vaše buduće mentalno stanje, čak i početak psihoze? U ovom fascinantnom govoru, neuroznanstvenik Mariano Sigman spominje antičku Grčku i porijeklo introspekcije da bi istražio kako naše riječi nagovještavaju naš unutarnji život i detalje algoritma mapiranja riječi koji može predvidjeti razvoj shizofrenije. "Možemo vidjeti u budućnosti vrlo različit oblik mentalnog zdravlja, baziranog na objektivnim, kvantitativnim i automatskim analizama riječi koje pišemo i koje govorimo."
Mariano Sigman - Neuroscientist
In his provocative, mind-bending book "The Secret Life of the Mind," neuroscientist Mariano Sigman reveals his life’s work exploring the inner workings of the human brain. Full bio
In his provocative, mind-bending book "The Secret Life of the Mind," neuroscientist Mariano Sigman reveals his life’s work exploring the inner workings of the human brain. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
We have historical records that allow us
to know how the ancient Greeks dressed,
to know how the ancient Greeks dressed,
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Postoje povijesni zapisi koji nam pokazuju
kako su se stari Grci odijevali,
kako su se stari Grci odijevali,
00:18
how they lived,
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kako su živjeli,
00:19
how they fought ...
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kako su se borili...
00:21
but how did they think?
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No kako su mislili?
00:23
One natural idea is that the deepest
aspects of human thought --
aspects of human thought --
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Jedna prirodna ideja je da su najdublji
aspekti ljudske misli --
aspekti ljudske misli --
00:27
our ability to imagine,
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naša sposobnost da zamišljamo,
00:29
to be conscious,
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da budemo svjesni,
00:31
to dream --
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da sanjamo --
00:32
have always been the same.
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uvijek bili isti.
00:34
Another possibility
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Druga mogućnost
00:36
is that the social transformations
that have shaped our culture
that have shaped our culture
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je da su društvene transformacije koje su
oblikovale našu kulturu
oblikovale našu kulturu
00:40
may have also changed
the structural columns of human thought.
the structural columns of human thought.
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možda promijenile i strukturne
stupove ljudske misli.
stupove ljudske misli.
00:44
We may all have different
opinions about this.
opinions about this.
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Možemo svi imati drugačije mišljenje u
vezi toga.
vezi toga.
00:47
Actually, it's a long-standing
philosophical debate.
philosophical debate.
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Zapravo, to je filozofska rasprava koja
već dugo traje.
već dugo traje.
00:50
But is this question
even amenable to science?
even amenable to science?
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No je li ovo pitanje imalo primamljivo
znanosti?
znanosti?
00:54
Here I'd like to propose
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Htio bih predložiti
00:57
that in the same way we can reconstruct
how the ancient Greek cities looked
how the ancient Greek cities looked
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da na isti način na koji možemo
rekonstruirati izgled antičkih gradova
rekonstruirati izgled antičkih gradova
01:02
just based on a few bricks,
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samo na osnovi nekoliko cigli,
01:04
that the writings of a culture
are the archaeological records,
are the archaeological records,
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da su zapisi kulture arheološke
snimke,
snimke,
01:08
the fossils, of human thought.
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fosili ljudske svijesti.
01:11
And in fact,
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U stvari,
01:13
doing some form of psychological analysis
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radeći neku vrstu psihološke analize
01:15
of some of the most ancient
books of human culture,
books of human culture,
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nekih od najstarijih knjiga
ljudske kulture,
ljudske kulture,
01:18
Julian Jaynes came up in the '70s
with a very wild and radical hypothesis:
with a very wild and radical hypothesis:
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Julian Jaynes je u 70-ima došao do
vrlo divlje i radikalne hipoteze:
vrlo divlje i radikalne hipoteze:
01:24
that only 3,000 years ago,
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da su prije samo 3.000 godina,
01:27
humans were what today
we would call schizophrenics.
we would call schizophrenics.
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ljudi bili ono što bi danas
nazvali shizofrenicima.
nazvali shizofrenicima.
01:33
And he made this claim
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Ovu tvrdnju je temeljio
01:35
based on the fact that the first
humans described in these books
humans described in these books
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na činjenici da su se prvi
ljudi opisani u tim knjigama
ljudi opisani u tim knjigama
01:38
behaved consistently,
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ponašali konzistentno,
01:40
in different traditions
and in different places of the world,
and in different places of the world,
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u drugačijim tradicijama na drugačijim
mjestima na svijetu,
mjestima na svijetu,
01:43
as if they were hearing and obeying voices
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kao da su čuli i slušali glasove
01:47
that they perceived
as coming from the Gods,
as coming from the Gods,
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koje su percipirali kao da dolaze od
Bogova,
Bogova,
01:50
or from the muses ...
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ili muza...
01:52
what today we would call hallucinations.
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što bismo danas nazvali halucinacijama.
01:55
And only then, as time went on,
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Tek tada, kako je vrijeme prolazilo,
01:58
they began to recognize
that they were the creators,
that they were the creators,
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počeli su prepoznavati da su
oni bili stvaratelji,
oni bili stvaratelji,
02:02
the owners of these inner voices.
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vlasnici tih unutarnjih glasova.
02:05
And with this, they gained introspection:
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S time su dobili introspekciju:
02:08
the ability to think
about their own thoughts.
about their own thoughts.
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sposobnost razmišljanja o
vlastitim mislima.
vlastitim mislima.
02:11
So Jaynes's theory is that consciousness,
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Jaynesova teorija je da je svjesnost,
02:15
at least in the way we perceive it today,
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barem na način na koji ju percipiramo
danas,
danas,
02:18
where we feel that we are the pilots
of our own existence --
of our own existence --
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gdje se osjećamo kao piloti
vlastitog postojanja --
vlastitog postojanja --
02:21
is a quite recent cultural development.
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poprilično svježa u kulturnom razvoju.
Ova teorija je poprilično spektakularna,
02:25
And this theory is quite spectacular,
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02:27
but it has an obvious problem
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no ima očiti problem
02:28
which is that it's built on just a few
and very specific examples.
and very specific examples.
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da je izgrađena na samo nekoliko
vrlo specifičnih primjera.
vrlo specifičnih primjera.
02:33
So the question is whether the theory
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Pitanje je može li teorija
02:34
that introspection built up in human
history only about 3,000 years ago
history only about 3,000 years ago
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da je introspekcija izgrađena u ljudskoj
povijesti prije samo 3.000 godina
povijesti prije samo 3.000 godina
02:39
can be examined in a quantitative
and objective manner.
and objective manner.
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biti promatrana na kvantitativan i
objektivan način.
objektivan način.
02:43
And the problem of how
to go about this is quite obvious.
to go about this is quite obvious.
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Vrlo je očito kako gledati ovaj problem
.
.
02:47
It's not like Plato woke up one day
and then he wrote,
and then he wrote,
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Nije se Platon probudio jednog dana
i napisao:
i napisao:
02:50
"Hello, I'm Plato,
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"Pozdrav, ja sam Platon,
02:52
and as of today, I have
a fully introspective consciousness."
a fully introspective consciousness."
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i od danas imam punu introspektivnu
svijest."
svijest."
02:55
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:57
And this tells us actually
what is the essence of the problem.
what is the essence of the problem.
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Ovo nam zapravo govori koja je
srž problema.
srž problema.
03:01
We need to find the emergence
of a concept that's never said.
of a concept that's never said.
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Moramo pronaći pojavu koncepta
koji nije nikada izgovoren.
koji nije nikada izgovoren.
03:06
The word introspection
does not appear a single time
does not appear a single time
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Riječ introspekcija se ne pojavljuje
niti jedan jedini put
niti jedan jedini put
03:10
in the books we want to analyze.
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u knjigama koje želimo analizirati.
03:13
So our way to solve this
is to build the space of words.
is to build the space of words.
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Naš način da ovo riješimo je
da napravimo prostor od riječi.
da napravimo prostor od riječi.
03:18
This is a huge space
that contains all words
that contains all words
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Ovo je ogroman prostor koji sadrži
sve riječi
sve riječi
03:21
in such a way that the distance
between any two of them
between any two of them
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na takav način da razmak između bilo
koje dvije riječi
koje dvije riječi
03:24
is indicative of how
closely related they are.
closely related they are.
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označava koliko su blisko povezane.
03:28
So for instance,
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Na primjer,
03:29
you want the words "dog" and "cat"
to be very close together,
to be very close together,
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želite da riječi "pas" i "mačka"
budu vrlo blizu,
budu vrlo blizu,
03:32
but the words "grapefruit" and "logarithm"
to be very far away.
to be very far away.
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no da riječi "grejp" i "logaritam"
budu jako daleko.
budu jako daleko.
03:36
And this has to be true
for any two words within the space.
for any two words within the space.
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To mora biti istinito za bilo koje
dvije riječi u prostoru.
dvije riječi u prostoru.
03:41
And there are different ways
that we can construct the space of words.
that we can construct the space of words.
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Postoje razni načini kako da konstruiramo
prostor od riječi.
prostor od riječi.
Jedan je da samo pitamo stručnjake,
03:44
One is just asking the experts,
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03:46
a bit like we do with dictionaries.
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kao što radimo s rječnicima.
03:48
Another possibility
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Druga mogućnost
03:50
is following the simple assumption
that when two words are related,
that when two words are related,
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je da pratimo jednostavnu pretpostavku
da su dvije riječi povezane,
da su dvije riječi povezane,
03:54
they tend to appear in the same sentences,
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kada se pojavljuju u istim rečenicama,
03:56
in the same paragraphs,
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istim odlomcima,
03:57
in the same documents,
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istim dokumentima,
03:59
more often than would be expected
just by pure chance.
just by pure chance.
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češće nego bi se očekivalo pukim slučajem.
04:04
And this simple hypothesis,
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Ova jednostavna hipoteza,
04:06
this simple method,
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jednostavna metoda,
04:07
with some computational tricks
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se s nekim računalnim trikovima
04:09
that have to do with the fact
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koji su povezani s činjenicom
04:10
that this is a very complex
and high-dimensional space,
and high-dimensional space,
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da je ovo vrlo kompleksan i
visoko dimenzionalan prostor,
visoko dimenzionalan prostor,
04:13
turns out to be quite effective.
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pokazuje poprilično uspješnom.
04:16
And just to give you a flavor
of how well this works,
of how well this works,
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Dat ću vam primjer kako
ovo dobro funkcionira,
ovo dobro funkcionira,
04:18
this is the result we get when
we analyze this for some familiar words.
we analyze this for some familiar words.
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Ovo je rezultat koji dobijemo
kada analiziramo neke poznate riječi.
kada analiziramo neke poznate riječi.
04:23
And you can see first
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Kao što možete vidjeti
04:24
that words automatically organize
into semantic neighborhoods.
into semantic neighborhoods.
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riječi su automatski organizirane
u semantička susjedstva.
u semantička susjedstva.
04:28
So you get the fruits, the body parts,
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Imate voće, dijelove tijela,
04:30
the computer parts,
the scientific terms and so on.
the scientific terms and so on.
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dijelove računala,
znanstvene izraze i tako dalje.
znanstvene izraze i tako dalje.
04:33
The algorithm also identifies
that we organize concepts in a hierarchy.
that we organize concepts in a hierarchy.
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Algoritam također identificira
hijerarhijsku organizaciju koncepata.
hijerarhijsku organizaciju koncepata.
04:37
So for instance,
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Na primjer,
04:39
you can see that the scientific terms
break down into two subcategories
break down into two subcategories
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možete vidjeti da se znanstveni termini
dijele na dvije podkategorije
dijele na dvije podkategorije
04:42
of the astronomic and the physics terms.
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astronomskih i fizičkih termina.
Onda postoje vrlo fine stvari.
04:45
And then there are very fine things.
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Na primjer, riječ astronomija,
04:47
For instance, the word astronomy,
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za koju se čini da je bizarna
tamo gdje je,
tamo gdje je,
04:49
which seems a bit bizarre where it is,
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04:51
is actually exactly where it should be,
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je ustvari upravo tamo
gdje bi i trebala biti,
gdje bi i trebala biti,
04:53
between what it is,
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između onoga što je,
04:55
an actual science,
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znanost,
04:56
and between what it describes,
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i onoga što opisuje,
04:57
the astronomical terms.
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astronomske termine.
05:00
And we could go on and on with this.
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Mogli bismo nastaviti s ovime.
05:02
Actually, if you stare
at this for a while,
at this for a while,
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Zapravo, ako dovoljno dugo
gledate u ovo,
gledate u ovo,
05:04
and you just build random trajectories,
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i gradite nasumične putanje,
05:06
you will see that it actually feels
a bit like doing poetry.
a bit like doing poetry.
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vidjet ćete da je osjećaj pomalo kao
da pišete poeziju.
da pišete poeziju.
05:10
And this is because, in a way,
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Ovo je iz razloga što je, na neki način,
05:11
walking in this space
is like walking in the mind.
is like walking in the mind.
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hod u ovom prostoru kao hod
u umu.
u umu.
05:16
And the last thing
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Zadnja stvar
05:17
is that this algorithm also identifies
what are our intuitions,
what are our intuitions,
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je da ovaj algoritam također identificira
što su naše intuicije,
što su naše intuicije,
05:21
of which words should lead
in the neighborhood of introspection.
in the neighborhood of introspection.
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koje riječi vode u
susjedstvo introspekcije.
susjedstvo introspekcije.
05:25
So for instance,
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Na primjer,
05:26
words such as "self," "guilt,"
"reason," "emotion,"
"reason," "emotion,"
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riječi kao "sebe", "krivnja",
"razum", "osjećaj",
"razum", "osjećaj",
05:30
are very close to "introspection,"
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su vrlo blizu "introspekciji",
05:32
but other words,
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no ostale riječi,
05:33
such as "red," "football,"
"candle," "banana,"
"candle," "banana,"
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kao što su "crvena", "nogomet", "svijeća",
"banana",
"banana",
05:36
are just very far away.
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su stvarno jako daleko.
05:38
And so once we've built the space,
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Jednom kada smo napravili prostor,
05:40
the question of the history
of introspection,
of introspection,
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pitanje povijesti introspekcije,
05:43
or of the history of any concept
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ili povijesti bilo kojeg koncepta
05:46
which before could seem abstract
and somehow vague,
and somehow vague,
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koji bi se ranije smatrao apstraktnim
i nekako maglovitim,
i nekako maglovitim,
05:50
becomes concrete --
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postaje konkretan --
05:52
becomes amenable to quantitative science.
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postaje primamljiv kvantitativnoj
znanosti.
znanosti.
05:56
All that we have to do is take the books,
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Sve što trebamo napraviti je uzeti knjige,
05:59
we digitize them,
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digitalizirati ih,
06:00
and we take this stream
of words as a trajectory
of words as a trajectory
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i uzeti ovu rijeku riječi kao putanju
06:03
and project them into the space,
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i projicirati ju u prostoru,
06:05
and then we ask whether this trajectory
spends significant time
spends significant time
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i onda pitati troši
li ova putanja puno vremena
li ova putanja puno vremena
06:09
circling closely to the concept
of introspection.
of introspection.
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kružeći blizu koncepta introspekcije.
06:12
And with this,
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S ovime,
06:13
we could analyze
the history of introspection
the history of introspection
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možemo analizirati povijest introspekcije
06:16
in the ancient Greek tradition,
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u tradiciji stare Grčke,
06:18
for which we have the best
available written record.
available written record.
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za koju imamo najbolje moguće pisane
izvore.
izvore.
06:21
So what we did is we took all the books --
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Ono što smo napravili je da smo uzeli
knjige --
knjige --
06:23
we just ordered them by time --
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vremenski ih posložili --
06:26
for each book we take the words
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iz svake knjige uzmemo riječi
06:27
and we project them to the space,
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i projiciramo ih u prostor,
06:29
and then we ask for each word
how close it is to introspection,
how close it is to introspection,
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i pitamo za svaku riječ koliko je blizu
introspekciji,
introspekciji,
06:33
and we just average that.
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i izračunamo prosjek.
06:34
And then we ask whether,
as time goes on and on,
as time goes on and on,
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Tada pitamo, kako vrijeme ide sve
dalje,
dalje,
06:37
these books get closer,
and closer and closer
and closer and closer
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približavaju li se knjige bliže i bliže
06:41
to the concept of introspection.
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konceptu introspekcije.
06:42
And this is exactly what happens
in the ancient Greek tradition.
in the ancient Greek tradition.
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Ovo je točno ono što se dogodilo u
tradiciji antičke Grčke.
tradiciji antičke Grčke.
06:47
So you can see that for the oldest books
in the Homeric tradition,
in the Homeric tradition,
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Možete vidjeti da u najstarijim knjigama
homerske tradicije,
homerske tradicije,
06:50
there is a small increase with books
getting closer to introspection.
getting closer to introspection.
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postoji malo pojava knjiga
koje se približavaju introspekciji.
koje se približavaju introspekciji.
06:54
But about four centuries before Christ,
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No, oko 4 stoljeća prije Krista,
06:56
this starts ramping up very rapidly
to an almost five-fold increase
to an almost five-fold increase
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ovo se počinje ubrzano povećavati
na čak peterostruko povećanje
na čak peterostruko povećanje
07:01
of books getting closer,
and closer and closer
and closer and closer
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knjigama koje dolaze bliže i
bliže i bliže
bliže i bliže
07:03
to the concept of introspection.
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konceptu introspekcije.
07:06
And one of the nice things about this
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Jedna od lijepih stvari u vezi ovoga
07:08
is that now we can ask
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je da možemo pitati
07:09
whether this is also true
in a different, independent tradition.
in a different, independent tradition.
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je li ovo također istina za drugačije,
nezavisne tradicije.
nezavisne tradicije.
07:14
So we just ran this same analysis
on the Judeo-Christian tradition,
on the Judeo-Christian tradition,
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Istu analizu smo napravili i za
židovsko kršćansku tradiciju,
židovsko kršćansku tradiciju,
07:18
and we got virtually the same pattern.
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i dobili smo virtualno isti uzorak.
07:21
Again, you see a small increase
for the oldest books in the Old Testament,
for the oldest books in the Old Testament,
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Opet, vidite mali pomak od najstarijih
knjiga u Starom zavjetu,
knjiga u Starom zavjetu,
07:26
and then it increases much more rapidly
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pa se povećava puno brže
07:28
in the new books of the New Testament.
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u novim knjigama Novog zavjeta.
07:30
And then we get the peak of introspection
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I onda imamo vrh introspekcije
07:32
in "The Confessions of Saint Augustine,"
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u Ispovjestima Svetog Augustina,
07:34
about four centuries after Christ.
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oko 4 stoljeća nakon Krista.
07:36
And this was very important,
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Ovo je bilo vrlo važno,
07:38
because Saint Augustine
had been recognized by scholars,
had been recognized by scholars,
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jer je Sveti Augustin prepoznat
od strane učenjaka,
od strane učenjaka,
07:42
philologists, historians,
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filologa, povjesničara,
07:44
as one of the founders of introspection.
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kao jedan od osnivača introspekcije.
07:47
Actually, some believe him to be
the father of modern psychology.
the father of modern psychology.
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Zapravo, neki vjeruju kako je
on otac moderne psihologije.
on otac moderne psihologije.
07:51
So our algorithm,
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Dakle naš algoritam,
07:52
which has the virtue
of being quantitative,
of being quantitative,
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koji ima vrlinu da je kvantitativan,
07:55
of being objective,
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objektivan,
07:57
and of course of being extremely fast --
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i naravno, iznimno brz --
07:59
it just runs in a fraction of a second --
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treba mu dijelić sekunde --
08:01
can capture some of the most
important conclusions
important conclusions
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može uhvatiti neke od najvažnijh
zaključaka
zaključaka
08:05
of this long tradition of investigation.
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ove duge tradicije istraživanja.
08:08
And this is in a way
one of the beauties of science,
one of the beauties of science,
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To je na neki način jedna od ljepota
znanosti,
znanosti,
08:11
which is that now this idea
can be translated
can be translated
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da se sada ova ideja može prevesti
08:15
and generalized to a whole lot
of different domains.
of different domains.
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i generalizirati na potpuno
druge aspekte.
druge aspekte.
08:18
So in the same way that we asked
about the past of human consciousness,
about the past of human consciousness,
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Dakle na isti način na koji smo se pitali
o povijesti ljudske svijesti,
o povijesti ljudske svijesti,
08:23
maybe the most challenging question
we can pose to ourselves
we can pose to ourselves
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možda najizazovnije pitanje koje
si možemo postaviti
si možemo postaviti
08:26
is whether this can tell us something
about the future of our own consciousness.
about the future of our own consciousness.
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je može li nam ovo reći nešto o budućnosti
naše svijesti.
naše svijesti.
08:31
To put it more precisely,
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Točnije,
08:33
whether the words we say today
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mogu li nam riječi koje koristimo danas
08:35
can tell us something
of where our minds will be in a few days,
of where our minds will be in a few days,
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reći nešto o našim umovima
za par dana,
za par dana,
08:40
in a few months
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mjeseci
08:41
or a few years from now.
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ili za godinu.
08:43
And in the same way many of us
are now wearing sensors
are now wearing sensors
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Na isti način na koji mnogo nas
nosi senzore
nosi senzore
08:46
that detect our heart rate,
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koji prepoznaju naš rad srca,
08:48
our respiration,
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naše disanje,
08:49
our genes,
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naše gene,
08:51
on the hopes that this may
help us prevent diseases,
help us prevent diseases,
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u nadama da će nam to pomoći
spriječiti bolesti,
spriječiti bolesti,
08:55
we can ask whether monitoring
and analyzing the words we speak,
and analyzing the words we speak,
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možemo se pitati može li nam praćenje i
analiza riječi koje govorimo,
analiza riječi koje govorimo,
08:58
we tweet, we email, we write,
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tvitamo, šaljemo e-mailom, pišemo,
09:01
can tell us ahead of time whether
something may go wrong with our minds.
something may go wrong with our minds.
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reći unaprijed da nešto nije u redu s
našim umovima.
našim umovima.
09:07
And with Guillermo Cecchi,
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S Guillermom Cecchijem,
09:08
who has been my brother in this adventure,
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koji mi je bio brat u ovoj avanturi,
09:11
we took on this task.
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sam se bacio na ovaj zadatak.
09:14
And we did so by analyzing
the recorded speech of 34 young people
the recorded speech of 34 young people
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To smo učinili analizirajući
snimane govore 34 mlade osobe
snimane govore 34 mlade osobe
09:19
who were at a high risk
of developing schizophrenia.
of developing schizophrenia.
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koje su bile u visokom riziku
razvijanja shizofrenije.
razvijanja shizofrenije.
09:23
And so what we did is,
we measured speech at day one,
we measured speech at day one,
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Napravili smo ovo, mjerili smo
govore prvi dan,
govore prvi dan,
09:26
and then we asked whether the properties
of the speech could predict,
of the speech could predict,
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i pitali se mogu li značajke
govora predvidjeti,
govora predvidjeti,
09:29
within a window of almost three years,
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u okviru od skoro 3 godine,
09:32
the future development of psychosis.
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budući razvoj psihoze.
09:35
But despite our hopes,
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No unatoč našim nadama,
09:37
we got failure after failure.
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postigli smo neuspjeh za neuspjehom.
09:41
There was just not enough
information in semantics
information in semantics
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Nema dovoljno informacija u semantici
09:45
to predict the future
organization of the mind.
organization of the mind.
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da se predvidi budućnost
organizacije uma.
organizacije uma.
09:48
It was good enough
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Bilo je dovoljno dobro
09:50
to distinguish between a group
of schizophrenics and a control group,
of schizophrenics and a control group,
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da bi se vidjela razlika između grupe
shizofrenika i kontrolne grupe,
shizofrenika i kontrolne grupe,
09:54
a bit like we had done
for the ancient texts,
for the ancient texts,
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otprilike kao i za antičke tekstove,
09:57
but not to predict the future
onset of psychosis.
onset of psychosis.
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no ne i za predviđanje buduće psihoze.
10:01
But then we realized
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No, onda smo shvatili
10:02
that maybe the most important thing
was not so much what they were saying,
was not so much what they were saying,
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da možda najvažnija stvar nije toliko
što su govorili
što su govorili
10:07
but how they were saying it.
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nego kako su to govorili.
10:09
More specifically,
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Specifičnije,
ne radi se o tome u kojem semantičkom
susjedstvu se nalaze riječi,
susjedstvu se nalaze riječi,
10:10
it was not in which semantic
neighborhoods the words were,
neighborhoods the words were,
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10:13
but how far and fast they jumped
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već koliko daleko i brzo su skočile
10:16
from one semantic neighborhood
to the other one.
to the other one.
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iz jednog semantičkog susjedstva
u drugi.
u drugi.
10:19
And so we came up with this measure,
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Smislili smo mjeru,
10:21
which we termed semantic coherence,
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koju smo nazvali semantička povezanost,
10:23
which essentially measures the persistence
of speech within one semantic topic,
of speech within one semantic topic,
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koja suštinski mjeri dosljednost
govora unutar jedne semantičke teme,
govora unutar jedne semantičke teme,
10:28
within one semantic category.
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jedne semantičke kategorije.
10:31
And it turned out to be
that for this group of 34 people,
that for this group of 34 people,
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Pokazalo se da je za ovu grupu od
34 osobe,
34 osobe,
10:35
the algorithm based on semantic
coherence could predict,
coherence could predict,
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algoritam mogao, na temelju semantičke
povezanosti, predvidjeti
povezanosti, predvidjeti
10:39
with 100 percent accuracy,
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sa 100% preciznošću,
10:41
who developed psychosis and who will not.
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tko će razviti psihozu, a tko ne.
10:44
And this was something
that could not be achieved --
that could not be achieved --
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To je nešto što nije moglo biti
ostvareno --
ostvareno --
10:47
not even close --
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ni blizu --
10:49
with all the other
existing clinical measures.
existing clinical measures.
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sa svim drugim postojećim
kliničkim mjerama.
kliničkim mjerama.
10:54
And I remember vividly,
while I was working on this,
while I was working on this,
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Sjećam se živo dok sam radio na tome,
10:58
I was sitting at my computer
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sjedio sam za računalom
11:00
and I saw a bunch of tweets by Polo --
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i vidio puno Polovih tvitova --
11:03
Polo had been my first student
back in Buenos Aires,
back in Buenos Aires,
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Polo je bio moj prvi učenik u
Buenos Airesu,
Buenos Airesu,
11:06
and at the time
he was living in New York.
he was living in New York.
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i u to vrijeme je živio u New Yorku.
11:08
And there was something in this tweets --
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Bilo je nešto u njegovim tvitovima --
11:10
I could not tell exactly what
because nothing was said explicitly --
because nothing was said explicitly --
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nisam točno mogao razaznati što, jer
nije bilo ničega eksplicitnog --
nije bilo ničega eksplicitnog --
11:14
but I got this strong hunch,
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no dobio sam snažan osjećaj,
11:16
this strong intuition,
that something was going wrong.
that something was going wrong.
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snažan predosjećaj,
da je nešto pogrešno.
da je nešto pogrešno.
11:20
So I picked up the phone,
and I called Polo,
and I called Polo,
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Uzeo sam telefon i nazvao Pola,
11:23
and in fact he was not feeling well.
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i ustvari se nije osjećao dobro.
11:25
And this simple fact,
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Ova jednostavna činjenica,
11:27
that reading in between the lines,
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to čitanje između redova,
11:29
I could sense,
through words, his feelings,
through words, his feelings,
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mogao sam osjetiti kroz riječi,
njegove emocije,
njegove emocije,
11:34
was a simple, but very
effective way to help.
effective way to help.
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je bio jednostavan, ali vrlo
efektivan način za pomoć.
efektivan način za pomoć.
11:37
What I tell you today
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Ono što vam kažem danas,
11:39
is that we're getting
close to understanding
close to understanding
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je da se približavamo razumijevanju
11:42
how we can convert this intuition
that we all have,
that we all have,
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kako možemo pretvoriti intuiciju koju
svi imamo,
svi imamo,
11:46
that we all share,
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koju svi dijelimo,
11:47
into an algorithm.
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u algoritam.
11:50
And in doing so,
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Radeći to,
11:51
we may be seeing in the future
a very different form of mental health,
a very different form of mental health,
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možemo vidjeti u budućnosti vrlo drugačiji
oblik mentalnog zdravlja,
oblik mentalnog zdravlja,
11:56
based on objective, quantitative
and automated analysis
and automated analysis
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baziranog na objektivnim, kvantitativnim
i automatskim analizama
i automatskim analizama
12:01
of the words we write,
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riječi koje pišemo,
12:03
of the words we say.
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i koje govorimo.
12:05
Gracias.
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Hvala.
12:06
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Mariano Sigman - NeuroscientistIn his provocative, mind-bending book "The Secret Life of the Mind," neuroscientist Mariano Sigman reveals his life’s work exploring the inner workings of the human brain.
Why you should listen
Mariano Sigman, a physicist by training, is a leading figure in the cognitive neuroscience of learning and decision making. Sigman was awarded a Human Frontiers Career Development Award, the National Prize of Physics, the Young Investigator Prize of "College de France," the IBM Scalable Data Analytics Award and is a scholar of the James S. McDonnell Foundation. In 2016 he was made a Laureate of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences.
In The Secret Life of the Mind, Sigman's ambition is to explain the mind so that we can understand ourselves and others more deeply. He shows how we form ideas during our first days of life, how we give shape to our fundamental decisions, how we dream and imagine, why we feel certain emotions, how the brain transforms and how who we are changes with it. Spanning biology, physics, mathematics, psychology, anthropology, linguistics, philosophy and medicine, as well as gastronomy, magic, music, chess, literature and art, The Secret Life of the Mind revolutionizes how neuroscience serves us in our lives, revealing how the infinity of neurons inside our brains manufacture how we perceive, reason, feel, dream and communicate.
Mariano Sigman | Speaker | TED.com