TEDGlobal 2013
Annette Heuser: The 3 agencies with the power to make or break economies
Annette Heuser: Tri agencije koje imaju moć stvoriti ili slomiti gospodarstva.
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Način na koji ocjenjujemo nacionalna gospodarstva je posve pogrešan, kaže reformatorica rejting agencija Annette Heuser. Na tajanstvene i prikrivene načine tri privatne kreditne rejting agencije sa sjedištem u Sjedinjenim Državama imaju silnu moć nad nacionalnim ekonomijama širom svijeta, i posljedice mogu biti katastrofalne. No, što ako postoji i drugi način? U ovom odvažnom predavanju, Heuser dijeli svoju viziju neprofitne agencije koja bi unijela više jednakosti i pravde u taj sektor.
Annette Heuser - Rating agency reformer
Annette Heuser proposes critical reforms to loosen the iron grip of rating agencies on national credit scores. Full bio
Annette Heuser proposes critical reforms to loosen the iron grip of rating agencies on national credit scores. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Almost two years ago,
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Prije skoro dvije godine,
00:14
I was driving in my car in Germany,
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vozila sam se automobilom u Njemačkoj
00:16
and I turned on the radio.
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i uključila sam radio.
00:19
Europe at the time was in the middle
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Europa je u to doba bila
00:21
of the Euro crisis,
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usred krize s eurom
00:22
and all the headlines were about European countries
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i svi su naslovi bili o državama kojima
rejting snižavaju
rejting snižavaju
00:27
getting downgraded by rating agencies
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rejting agencije
00:30
in the United States.
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iz Sjedinjenih Država.
00:31
I listened and thought to myself,
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Slušala sam i pitala se,
00:34
"What are these rating agencies,
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"Što su te rejting agencije
00:36
and why is everybody so upset about their work?"
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i zašto se svi uzrujavaju oko njihovog rada?"
00:39
Well, if you were sitting
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Da ste toga dana
00:41
next to me in the car that day
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sjedili do mene u autu
00:43
and would have told me that I would devote
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i rekli mi da ću posvetiti
00:45
the next years to trying to reform them,
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naredne godine u nastojanju da ih reformiram,
00:49
obviously I would have called you crazy.
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naravno da bih vas proglasila ludim.
00:53
But guess what's really crazy:
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No, evo što je doista ludo:
00:55
the way these rating agencies are run.
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način na koji se upravlja tim agencijama.
00:58
And I would like to explain to you
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Voljela bih vam objasniti
00:59
not only why it's time to change this,
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ne samo zašto je vrijeme da to promijenimo,
01:01
but also how we can do it.
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već i kako to možemo postići.
01:04
So let me tell you a little bit
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Dopustite da vam kažem nešto o tome
01:06
about what rating agencies really do.
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što rejting agencije zapravo rade.
01:10
As you would read a car magazine
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Kao što ćete pročitati automobilski časopis
01:12
before purchasing a new car
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prije nego što kupite auto,
01:14
or taking a look at a product review
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ili baciti pogled na ocjenu proizvoda
01:16
before deciding which kind of tablet or phone to get,
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prije odluke o nabavci kakvog tableta ili telefona,
01:20
investors are reading ratings
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ulagači čitaju rejtinge
01:22
before they decide in which kind of product
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prije odluke u koju vrstu proizvoda
01:25
they are investing their money.
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će investirati svoj novac.
01:27
A rating can range from a so-called AAA,
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Rejting može biti u rasponu od takozvanog AAA,
01:30
which means it's a top-performing product,
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što znači da je riječ o vrhunskom ulaganju,
01:33
and it can go down to the level
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pa naniže, sve do razine
01:36
of the so-called BBB-,
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takozvanog BBB,
01:39
which means it's a fairly risky investment.
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što označava prilično rizičnu investiciju.
01:42
Rating agencies are rating companies.
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Rejting agencije daju rejting kompanijama.
01:45
They are rating banks.
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Daju rejting bankama.
01:46
They are rating even financial products
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Daju rejting čak i financijskim proizvodima
01:48
like the infamous mortgage-backed securities.
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kao što su ozloglašene hipotekarne vrijednosnice.
01:51
But they can also rate countries,
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Ali one mogu dati rejting i zemljama,
01:54
and these ratings are called sovereign ratings,
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i ti se rejtinzi nazivaju rejtinzima suvereniteta,
01:56
and I would like to focus in particular
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a ja bih se htjela prvenstveno usredotočiti
01:59
on these sovereign ratings.
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na te rejtinge suvereniteta.
02:01
And I can tell, as you're listening to me right now,
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Već vidim, dok me sada slušate,
02:04
you're thinking,
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mislite:
02:05
so why should I really care about this, right?
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no, zašto bih ja o tome brinuo, zar ne?
02:08
Be honest.
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Budite iskreni.
02:09
Well, ratings affect you.
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Pa, rejtinzi utječu na vas.
02:12
They affect all of us.
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Utječu na sve nas.
02:14
If a rating agency rates a country,
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Ako rejting agencija ocijeni zemlju,
02:17
it basically assesses and evaluates
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ona zapravo analizira i procjenjuje
02:20
a country's debt
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dug države
02:22
and the ability and willingness of a country
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i njenu mogućnost i spremnost
02:24
to repay its debt.
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da taj dug otplati.
02:26
So if a country gets downgraded by a rating agency,
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Ako rejting agencija zemlji obori rejting,
02:29
the country has to pay more
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država mora platiti više
02:31
in order to borrow money
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kako bi posudila novac
02:33
on the international markets.
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na međunarodnom tržištu.
02:35
So it affects you as a citizen and as a taxpayer,
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To, dakle, utječe na vas kao građanina i
poreznog obveznika,
poreznog obveznika,
02:37
because you and your fellow countrymen
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jer vi i vaši sugrađani
02:40
have to pony up more in order to borrow.
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morat ćete platiti više kako biste posudili.
02:44
But what if a country can't afford to pay more
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No, što ako si zemlja ne može priuštiti platiti više
02:46
because it's maybe too expensive?
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jer je možda kredit preskup?
02:49
Well, then the country has less available
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Tada će joj ostati manje na raspolaganju
02:52
for other services, like roads, schools, healthcare.
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za druge usluge, poput cesta, škola,
zdravstvenog osiguranja.
zdravstvenog osiguranja.
02:56
And this is the reason why you should care,
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I zato biste o ovome trebali voditi računa,
02:58
because sovereign ratings affect everyone.
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jer rejting suvereniteta utječe na svakoga.
03:01
And that is the reason why I believe
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Iz toga razloga ja mislim
03:03
they should be defined as public goods.
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da te agencije treba definirati kao javno dobro.
03:06
They should be transparent, accessible,
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One bi morale biti transparentne, dostupne
03:09
and available to everyone at no cost.
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i na usluzi svakome, bez troška.
03:13
But here's the situation:
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Ali situacija je sljedeća:
03:15
the rating agency market is dominated
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na tržištu rejting agencija dominiraju
03:17
by three players and three players only --
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tri igrača, samo tri igrača --
03:20
Standard & Poor's, Moody's, and Fitch --
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Standard & Poor's, Moody's i Fitch --
03:23
and we know whenever there
is a market concentration,
is a market concentration,
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a znamo da gdjegod imamo
tržišnu koncentraciju,
tržišnu koncentraciju,
03:26
there is really no competition.
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zapravo nemamo konkurenciju.
03:28
There is no incentive to improve
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Nema poticaja za poboljšanje
03:30
the quality of your product.
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kvalitete proizvoda.
03:33
And let's face it, the credit rating
agencies have contributed,
agencies have contributed,
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I istini za volju, kreditne rejting agencije
su doprinijele
su doprinijele
03:37
putting the global economy on the brink,
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u guranju svjetske ekonomije na rub ponora,
03:40
and yet they have to change the way they operate.
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a tek trebaju promijeniti način svoga rada.
03:43
The second point,
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Drugo,
03:45
would you really buy a car
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da li biste zaista kupili automobil
03:47
just based on the advice of the dealer?
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samo na temelju preporuke prodavača?
03:51
Obviously not, right? That would be irresponsible.
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Jasno da ne, zar ne? To bi bilo neodgovorno.
03:54
But that's actually what's going on
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Ali upravo se to događa
03:56
in the rating agency sector every single day.
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u sektoru rejting agencija svakoga dana.
04:00
The customers of these rating agencies,
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Korisnici usluga rejting agencija
04:03
like countries or companies,
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kao što su države ili poduzeća,
04:06
they are paying for their own ratings,
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plaćaju svoj vlastiti rejting
04:08
and obviously this is creating
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i to očito dovodi
04:10
a conflict of interest.
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do sukoba interesa.
04:13
The third point is,
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Treće,
04:15
the rating agencies are not really telling us
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rejting agencije nam baš i ne govore
04:18
how they are coming up with their ratings,
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kako su izračunale svoje rejtinge,
04:21
but in this day and age,
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ali u naše doba
04:23
you can't even sell a candy bar
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ne možete prodavati ni čokoladicu
04:25
without listing everything that's inside.
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bez da prikažete sve njene sastojke.
04:28
But for ratings, a crucial element of our economy,
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No za rejtinge, suštinski element naše ekonomije,
04:31
we really do not know
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mi zaista ne znamo
04:33
what all the different ingredients are.
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koji su to različiti sastojci.
04:36
We are allowing the rating agencies
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Dopuštamo rejting agencijama
04:37
to be intransparent about their work,
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da budu netransparentne u svojem radu,
04:40
and we need to change this.
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i to moramo promijeniti.
04:42
I think there is no doubt that the sector
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Mislim da nema dvojbe da se sektor
04:45
needs a complete overhaul,
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mora potpuno reorganizirati,
04:46
not just a trimming at the margins.
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ne samo potkratiti na rubovima.
04:49
I think it's time for a bold move.
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Mislim da je vrijeme za odvažan potez.
04:51
I think it's time to upgrade the system.
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Mislim da je vrijeme za poboljšanje sustava.
04:54
And this is why we at the Bertelsmann Foundation
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I zato mi pri Bertelsmann Foundation
04:57
have invested a lot of time and effort
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ulažemo puno vremena i napora
05:00
thinking about an alternative for the sector.
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razmišljajući o alternativi za taj sektor.
05:03
And we have developed the first model
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Razvili smo prvi model
05:06
for a nonprofit rating agency for sovereign risk,
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neprofitne rejting agencije za rizik suvereniteta
05:11
and we call it by its acronym, INCRA.
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i zovemo ga po akronimu, INCRA.
05:16
INCRA would make a difference
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INCRA bi promijenila
05:17
to the current system
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postojeći sustav
05:19
by adding another nonprofit player to the mix.
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uključujući još jednog, neprofitnog, igrača u splet.
05:24
It would be based on a nonprofit model
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Riječ je o neprofitnom modelu
05:27
that would be based on a sustainable endowment.
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koji bi se temeljio na održivim donacijama.
05:31
The endowment would create income
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Donacije bi stvorile prihod
05:33
that would allow us to run the operation,
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koji bi nam omogućio da upravljamo
poslovnim aktivnostima,
poslovnim aktivnostima,
05:35
to run the rating agency,
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vodimo rejting agenciju,
05:37
and it would also allow us
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i omogućile bi nam
05:39
to make our ratings publicly available.
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da svoje rejtinge učinimo javno dostupnima.
05:43
But this is not enough to make a difference, right?
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Ali to nije dovoljno za stvarnu razliku, zar ne?
05:45
INCRA would also be based on
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INCRA bi se također temeljila
05:47
a very, very clear governance structure
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na vrlo, vrlo jasnoj upravljačkoj strukturi
05:50
that would avoid any conflict of interest,
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koja bi onemogućila bilo kakav sukob interesa,
05:53
and it would include many stakeholders from society.
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i uključila bi mnoge društvene subjekte.
05:58
INCRA would not only be a European
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INCRA ne bi bila samo europska
06:00
or an American rating agency,
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ili američka rejting agencija.
06:02
it would be a truly international one,
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Bila bi prava međunarodna agencija,
06:05
in which, in particular, the emerging economies
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u kojoj bi posebno rastuća gospodarstva
06:08
would have an equal interest,
voice and representation.
voice and representation.
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imala jednak interes, glas i bila jednako zastupljena.
06:13
The second big difference that INCRA would make is
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Druga je velika razlika koju bi INCRA stvorila
06:16
that would it base its sovereign risk assessment
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to što bi temeljila procjenu rizika suvereniteta
06:19
on a broader set of indicators.
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na većem broju indikatora.
06:22
Think about it that way.
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Gledajte na to ovako:
06:24
If we conduct a sovereign rating,
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ako provodimo rejting suvereniteta,
06:26
we basically take a look at
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zapravo promatramo
06:27
the economic soil of a country,
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gospodarsko tlo države,
06:30
its macroeconomic fundamentals.
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njene osnovne makroekonomske čimbenike.
06:33
But we also have to ask the question,
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Ali moramo si postaviti i pitanje
06:35
who is cultivating the economic soil
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tko oplođuje ekonomsko tlo
06:38
of a country, right?
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te države, zar ne?
06:40
Well, a country has many gardeners,
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Država ima mnogo baštovana
06:42
and one of them is the government,
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i jedan od njih je vlada,
06:44
so we have to ask the question,
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pa se moramo pitati
06:46
how is a country governed?
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kako se upravlja zemljom?
06:47
How is it managed?
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Kako se rukovodi?
06:49
And this is the reason why we have developed
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Iz toga smo razloga osmislili
06:51
what we call forward-looking indicators.
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ono što zovemo indikatorima budućeg razvoja.
06:54
These are indicators that give you
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Ti vam indikatori pružaju
06:56
a much better read about
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puno bolji uvid
06:57
the socioeconomic development of a country.
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u socioekonomski razvoj zemlje.
07:01
I hope you would agree it's important for you to know
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Nadam se da ćete se složiti da vam je važno znati
07:03
if your government is willing to invest
in renewable energy and education.
in renewable energy and education.
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je li vaša vlada voljna ulagati u
obnovljive izvore energije i obrazovanje.
obnovljive izvore energije i obrazovanje.
07:11
It's important for you to know
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Važno vam je znati
07:12
if the government of your country
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je li vlada vaše zemlje
07:14
is able to manage a crisis,
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u stanju upravljati krizom,
07:16
if the government is finally able to implement
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je li, napokon, vlada u stanju provesti
07:19
the reforms that it's promised.
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reforme koje je obećala.
07:23
For example, if INCRA would rate
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Na primjer, ako bi INCRA
07:25
South Africa right now,
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sada dala rejting Južnoj Africi,
07:27
of course we would take a very, very close look
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naravno da bismo vrlo pozorno promotrili
07:30
at the youth unemployment of the country,
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nezaposlenost mladih u toj zemlji,
07:33
the highest in the world.
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koja je najveća na svijetu.
07:35
If over 70 percent of a country's population
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Ako je preko 70 posto stanovnika
07:38
under the age of 35 is unemployed,
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mlađih od 35 godina nezaposleno,
07:42
of course this has a huge impact on the economy
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naravno da to ima silan učinak na gospodarstvo
07:45
today and even more so in the future.
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danas, a još više u budućnosti.
07:49
Well, our friends at Moody's,
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Naši prijatelji u agencijama Moody's,
07:52
Standard & Poor's, and Fitch will tell us
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Standard & Poor's i Fitch će nam reći
07:54
we would take this into account as well.
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da bi i oni to uzeli u obzir.
07:57
But guess what? We do not know
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Ali znate što? Ne znamo
07:59
exactly how they will take this into account.
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kako bi točno oni to uzeli u obzir.
08:02
And this leads me to the third big difference
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I time dolazim do treće velike razlike
08:04
that INCRA would make.
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koju bi INCRA uvela.
08:06
INCRA would not only release its ratings
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INCRA ne bi samo objavila rejtinge,
08:09
but it would also release its indicators
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već bi objavila i indikatore,
08:12
and methodology.
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kao i metodologiju.
08:14
So in contrast to the current system,
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Nasuprot današnjem sustavu,
08:16
INCRA would be fully transparent.
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INCRA bi bila potpuno transparentna.
08:20
So in a nutshell,
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U biti,
08:21
INCRA would offer an alternative
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INCRA bi pružila alternativu
08:24
to the current system of
the big three rating agencies
the big three rating agencies
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sadašnjem sustavu s tri velike
rejting agencije,
rejting agencije,
08:27
by adding a new, nonprofit player to the mix
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tako što bi uključila novog, neprofitnog igrača
08:31
that would increase the competition,
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koji bi povećao konkurenciju,
08:33
it would increase the transparency of the sector,
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poboljšao transparentnost sektora,
08:36
and it would also increase the quality.
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i povećao kvalitetu.
08:39
I can tell that sovereign ratings
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Možda vam rejtinzi suvereniteta
08:41
may still look to you like this very small piece
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i dalje izgledaju kao vrlo malen dio
08:44
of this very complex global financial world,
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izrazito kompleksnog financijskog svijeta,
08:48
but I tell you it's a very important one,
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ali velim vam da je vrlo važan,
08:51
and a very important one to fix,
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i da ga je vrlo važno popraviti,
08:53
because sovereign ratings affect all of us,
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jer rejtinzi suvereniteta utječu na sve nas,
08:56
and they should be addressed and should be defined
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i trebalo bi ih promatrati i definirati
09:00
as public goods.
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kao javno dobro.
09:01
And this is why we are testing our model right now,
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Zbog toga mi sada testiramo naš model,
09:04
and why we are trying to find out if it can
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i pokušavamo otkriti može li on
09:07
bring together a group of able and willing actors
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okupiti skupinu sposobnih i voljnih sudionika
09:10
to bring INCRA to life.
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koji će realizirati INCRA-u.
09:13
I truly believe building up INCRA
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Zaista vjerujem da je uspostava INCRA-e
09:16
is in everyone's interest,
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u svačijem interesu,
09:18
and that we have the unique opportunity right now
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i da sada imamo jedinstvenu priliku
09:22
to turn INCRA into a cornerstone
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da INCRA postane kamen temeljac
09:24
of a new, more inclusive financial system.
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novoga, obuhvatnijega financijskog sustava.
09:29
Because for way too long,
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Zato što smo predugo
09:31
we have left the big financial players on their own.
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pustili da veliki financijski igrači
postupaju po svome.
postupaju po svome.
09:35
It's time to give them some company.
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Vrijeme je da im damo društvo.
09:38
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
09:40
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Annette Heuser - Rating agency reformerAnnette Heuser proposes critical reforms to loosen the iron grip of rating agencies on national credit scores.
Why you should listen
Credit rating agencies, with their power to downgrade credit ratings for entire nations, have come under intense scrutiny and recent events have put their acceptance and transparency into question. What if there was an alternative, free from the limitations and weakened legitimacy that encumbers the big three agencies?
Annette Heuser, executive director of the Washington branch of the German Bertelsmann Foundation, has created a blueprint for a new, non-profit solution to loosen the agencies’ iron grip. The International Nonprofit Credit Rating Agency (INCRA) would conduct unsolicited foreign-risk assessments, redefining sovereign ratings as a public good, and could dramatically shift the financial futures of the world.
Annette Heuser | Speaker | TED.com