TEDGlobal 2013
Annette Heuser: The 3 agencies with the power to make or break economies
Annette Heuser: 3 axencias co poder de crear ou destruír economías
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O modo no que estamos a cualificar economías é totalmente incorrecto segundo Annette Heuser, reformista da axencia de cualificación. Tres axencias privadas estadounidenses de avaliación de crédito están a empregar misteriosos e escuros métodos para exercer un gran poder sobre as economías nacionais en todo o mundo. Os resultados poden ser catastróficos pero, ¿e se houbese outra opción? Nesta audaz charla, Heuser comparte a súa visión dunha axencia de calificación sen ánimo de lucro que achegará maior equidade e xustiza ó xogo.
Annette Heuser - Rating agency reformer
Annette Heuser proposes critical reforms to loosen the iron grip of rating agencies on national credit scores. Full bio
Annette Heuser proposes critical reforms to loosen the iron grip of rating agencies on national credit scores. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Almost two years ago,
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Fai dous anos
conducía en Alemaña
00:14
I was driving in my car in Germany,
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00:16
and I turned on the radio.
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e acendín a radio.
00:19
Europe at the time was in the middle
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Por aquel entón Europa atopábase no medio
00:21
of the Euro crisis,
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da Euro crise
00:22
and all the headlines were about European countries
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e tódolos titulares falaban de que os países europeos
estaban a ser depreciados polas axencias de cualificación crediticia
00:27
getting downgraded by rating agencies
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00:30
in the United States.
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en Estados Unidos.
00:31
I listened and thought to myself,
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Escutei e pensei
00:34
"What are these rating agencies,
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"Quen son estas axencias
00:36
and why is everybody so upset about their work?"
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e porqué o seu traballo anoxa a todos?"
00:39
Well, if you were sitting
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Ben, se estiveses sentado
00:41
next to me in the car that day
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o meu carón aquel día
00:43
and would have told me that I would devote
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y me dixeses que iba pasar
00:45
the next years to trying to reform them,
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os seguintes anos intentanto reformalas
00:49
obviously I would have called you crazy.
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obviamente teriate chamado tolo.
00:53
But guess what's really crazy:
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Pero o que é en verdade para tolear
é o modo no que funcionan estas axencias.
00:55
the way these rating agencies are run.
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00:58
And I would like to explain to you
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Vouvos explicar algo,
00:59
not only why it's time to change this,
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non só o porqué é hora de cambiar isto
01:01
but also how we can do it.
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senon cómo podemos facelo.
01:04
So let me tell you a little bit
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Deixádeme contarvos un pouco
01:06
about what rating agencies really do.
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sobre o que fan as axencias de cualificación.
01:10
As you would read a car magazine
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Da misma forma que leerías unha revista de coches
01:12
before purchasing a new car
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antes de comprar un coche
01:14
or taking a look at a product review
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ou botaríades unha ollada a unha revisión de produtos
01:16
before deciding which kind of tablet or phone to get,
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antes de escoller que tableta ou un teléfono mercar,
01:20
investors are reading ratings
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os inversores len cualificacións crediticias
01:22
before they decide in which kind of product
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antes de decidir en qué produto
01:25
they are investing their money.
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van investir o seu diñeiro.
01:27
A rating can range from a so-called AAA,
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A cualificación vai dende a chamada AAA,
01:30
which means it's a top-performing product,
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que significa que ten un rendemento superior,
01:33
and it can go down to the level
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ata o nivel máis baixo,
01:36
of the so-called BBB-,
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coñecido como BBB-,
01:39
which means it's a fairly risky investment.
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que significa que investir nese produto ten un risco alto.
01:42
Rating agencies are rating companies.
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As axencias de cualificación son empresas de cualificación,
01:45
They are rating banks.
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cualifican bancos,
01:46
They are rating even financial products
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cualifican mesmo produtos financeiros
01:48
like the infamous mortgage-backed securities.
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como os famosos valores garantidos polas hipotecas
01:51
But they can also rate countries,
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pero tamén cualifican países,
01:54
and these ratings are called sovereign ratings,
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son as chámadas cualificacións soberanas
01:56
and I would like to focus in particular
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e gustaríame falar de estas en particular,
01:59
on these sovereign ratings.
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destas cualificacións soberanas,
02:01
And I can tell, as you're listening to me right now,
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e podo dicir que según me escoitades
02:04
you're thinking,
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estades a pensar,
02:05
so why should I really care about this, right?
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¿Por qué tería que interesarme isto, non?
02:08
Be honest.
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Seamos sinceros.
02:09
Well, ratings affect you.
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Ben, as cualificacións aféctannos,
02:12
They affect all of us.
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aféctannos a todos.
02:14
If a rating agency rates a country,
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Cando unha axencia de cualificación valora un país,
02:17
it basically assesses and evaluates
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basicamente analiza e avalía
02:20
a country's debt
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a débeda dun país
02:22
and the ability and willingness of a country
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e as posibilidades e decisión do país
02:24
to repay its debt.
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para devolve-la débeda.
02:26
So if a country gets downgraded by a rating agency,
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Polo tanto, cando unha axencia de
cualificación desvaloriza un país,
cualificación desvaloriza un país,
02:29
the country has to pay more
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o país ten que pagar máis
02:31
in order to borrow money
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para poder pedir cartos
02:33
on the international markets.
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dos mercados internacionais,
02:35
So it affects you as a citizen and as a taxpayer,
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isto aféctavos coma cidadáns e
pagadores de impostos
pagadores de impostos
02:37
because you and your fellow countrymen
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porque ti e os teus compatriotas
02:40
have to pony up more in order to borrow.
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tedes que pagar máis
para que vos poidan prestar.
para que vos poidan prestar.
02:44
But what if a country can't afford to pay more
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¿Qué pasa cando un país
non se pode permitir
non se pode permitir
02:46
because it's maybe too expensive?
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pagar máis porque é moi caro?
02:49
Well, then the country has less available
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Ben, entón o país ten menos dispoñibilidade
02:52
for other services, like roads, schools, healthcare.
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para outros servizos coma estradas,
escolas ou seguridade social.
escolas ou seguridade social.
02:56
And this is the reason why you should care,
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Por iso ten que importarvos,
02:58
because sovereign ratings affect everyone.
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porque as cualificacións
soberanas afectan a todos
soberanas afectan a todos
03:01
And that is the reason why I believe
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e por iso creo que
03:03
they should be defined as public goods.
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deberían definirse coma bens públicos.
03:06
They should be transparent, accessible,
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Deberían ser transparentes, accesibles
03:09
and available to everyone at no cost.
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e dispoñibles para calquera sen coste algún.
03:13
But here's the situation:
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Pero a situación e outra.
03:15
the rating agency market is dominated
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O mercado das axencias
de cualificación contrólano
de cualificación contrólano
03:17
by three players and three players only --
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única e exclusivamente tres entidades:
03:20
Standard & Poor's, Moody's, and Fitch --
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Standard & Poor's, Moody's, and Fitch,
03:23
and we know whenever there
is a market concentration,
is a market concentration,
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e sabemos que en canto hai
unha concentración de mercado
unha concentración de mercado
03:26
there is really no competition.
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en verdade non hai competencia.
03:28
There is no incentive to improve
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Non hai un motivo para millorar
03:30
the quality of your product.
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a calidade do teu produto
03:33
And let's face it, the credit rating
agencies have contributed,
agencies have contributed,
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e, sexamos honestos, as axencias
de cualificación contribuíron
de cualificación contribuíron
03:37
putting the global economy on the brink,
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a leva-la economía mundial o límite
03:40
and yet they have to change the way they operate.
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e teñen que cambia- la súa forma de operar.
03:43
The second point,
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En segundo lugar,
03:45
would you really buy a car
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¿COmprariades un coche
03:47
just based on the advice of the dealer?
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seguindo só o consello do vendedor?
03:51
Obviously not, right? That would be irresponsible.
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Obviamente non, ¿verdade? Sería irresponsable,
03:54
But that's actually what's going on
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pero iso é o que está a pasar
03:56
in the rating agency sector every single day.
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co sector das axencias
de cualificación a diario.
de cualificación a diario.
04:00
The customers of these rating agencies,
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Os clientes destas axencias de cualificación,
04:03
like countries or companies,
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que son países ou empresas,
04:06
they are paying for their own ratings,
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están a pagar polas súas propias avaliacións
04:08
and obviously this is creating
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e obviamente isto está a crear
04:10
a conflict of interest.
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un conflito de interese.
04:13
The third point is,
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En terceiro lugar,
04:15
the rating agencies are not really telling us
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as axencias de cualificación
non nos din realmente
non nos din realmente
04:18
how they are coming up with their ratings,
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cómo están a calcular isto,
04:21
but in this day and age,
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cando nestes tempos que corren
04:23
you can't even sell a candy bar
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non podes nin vender un chocolate
04:25
without listing everything that's inside.
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sen enumerar o que contén
04:28
But for ratings, a crucial element of our economy,
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pero cas cualificacións, un elemento
crucial dá nosa economía,
crucial dá nosa economía,
04:31
we really do not know
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non coñecemos realmente
04:33
what all the different ingredients are.
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os ingredientes que levan.
04:36
We are allowing the rating agencies
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Estamos a permitir que as
axencias de cualificación
axencias de cualificación
04:37
to be intransparent about their work,
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sexan opacas sobre o seu traballo
04:40
and we need to change this.
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e isto e algo que temos que cambiar.
04:42
I think there is no doubt that the sector
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Creo que non hai dúbida de que o sector
04:45
needs a complete overhaul,
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precisa dunha visión completa
04:46
not just a trimming at the margins.
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non meramente parcial.
04:49
I think it's time for a bold move.
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Penso que é hora de dar un paso decisivo.
04:51
I think it's time to upgrade the system.
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Penso que é hora de mellora-lo sistema.
04:54
And this is why we at the Bertelsmann Foundation
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Por iso en Bertelsmann Foundation
04:57
have invested a lot of time and effort
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investimos moito tempo e esforzo
05:00
thinking about an alternative for the sector.
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pensando nunha alternativa para este sector
05:03
And we have developed the first model
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e desenvolvímo-lo primer modelo
05:06
for a nonprofit rating agency for sovereign risk,
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de axencia de cualificación sen ánimo
de lucro para riscos soberanos
de lucro para riscos soberanos
05:11
and we call it by its acronym, INCRA.
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e referímonos a ela polo seu acrónimo, INCRA.
05:16
INCRA would make a difference
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INCRA fará unha diferencia
05:17
to the current system
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no sistema actual
05:19
by adding another nonprofit player to the mix.
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o engadir á mestura unha
entidade sen ánimo de lucro.
entidade sen ánimo de lucro.
05:24
It would be based on a nonprofit model
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Basearase nun modelo sen ánimo de lucro
05:27
that would be based on a sustainable endowment.
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que estase a basar nun financiamento sostible.
05:31
The endowment would create income
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O financiamento crearía ingresos
05:33
that would allow us to run the operation,
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que permitirían dirixi-las operacións,
05:35
to run the rating agency,
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dirixi-la axencia
05:37
and it would also allow us
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e tamén permitiría
05:39
to make our ratings publicly available.
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face-las cualificacións públicas.
05:43
But this is not enough to make a difference, right?
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Non obstante, isto non é dabondo
para marcar unha diferencia,
para marcar unha diferencia,
05:45
INCRA would also be based on
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INCRA tamén baseariase nunha
05:47
a very, very clear governance structure
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estructura moi, moi clara de goberno
05:50
that would avoid any conflict of interest,
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que evitaría calquer conflito de interese
05:53
and it would include many stakeholders from society.
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e incluiría a moitos interesados da sociedade.
05:58
INCRA would not only be a European
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INCRA non sería só unha axencia
06:00
or an American rating agency,
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europea ou estadounidense,
06:02
it would be a truly international one,
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sería unha verdadeira
axencia internacional
axencia internacional
06:05
in which, in particular, the emerging economies
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na que, en particular
as economías emerxentes
as economías emerxentes
06:08
would have an equal interest,
voice and representation.
voice and representation.
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terían un interese, voz
e representación equitativos.
e representación equitativos.
06:13
The second big difference that INCRA would make is
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A segunda gran diferenza que INCRA faría é
06:16
that would it base its sovereign risk assessment
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que basaría a súa avaliación de risco soberano
06:19
on a broader set of indicators.
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nunha amplia gama de indicadores.
06:22
Think about it that way.
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Mirádeo desta forma,
06:24
If we conduct a sovereign rating,
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se diriximos unha cualificación soberana
06:26
we basically take a look at
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estamos a ter basicamente
unha visualización
unha visualización
06:27
the economic soil of a country,
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do chan económico dun país,
06:30
its macroeconomic fundamentals.
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os seus fundamentos macroeconómicos,
06:33
But we also have to ask the question,
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pero tamén témonos que preguntar,
06:35
who is cultivating the economic soil
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quén cultiva o chan económico
06:38
of a country, right?
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dun país, ¿non?
06:40
Well, a country has many gardeners,
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Ben, un país ten moitos xardineiros
06:42
and one of them is the government,
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e un deles e o goberno
06:44
so we have to ask the question,
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polo que nos temos que preguntar,
06:46
how is a country governed?
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¿cómo se goberna un país?
06:47
How is it managed?
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¿Cómo se está a dirixir?
06:49
And this is the reason why we have developed
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Esta e a razón pola que desenvolvemos
06:51
what we call forward-looking indicators.
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o que chamamos indicadores prospectivos.
06:54
These are indicators that give you
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Hai indicadores que che dan
06:56
a much better read about
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unha millor lectura sobre
06:57
the socioeconomic development of a country.
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o desenrolo socioeconómico dun país.
07:01
I hope you would agree it's important for you to know
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Espero que coincidades conmigo
en que é importante saber
en que é importante saber
07:03
if your government is willing to invest
in renewable energy and education.
in renewable energy and education.
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se o noso goberno está disposto a investir
en enerxías renovables e educación.
en enerxías renovables e educación.
07:11
It's important for you to know
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É imporante que saibades
07:12
if the government of your country
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se o goberno do voso país
07:14
is able to manage a crisis,
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é capaz de manexar unha crise,
07:16
if the government is finally able to implement
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se o goberno é finalmente
capaz de implementar
capaz de implementar
07:19
the reforms that it's promised.
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as reformas que prometeu.
07:23
For example, if INCRA would rate
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Por exemplo, se INCRA cualifica
07:25
South Africa right now,
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Sudáfrica agora mesmo,
07:27
of course we would take a very, very close look
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por suposto tería moi, moi en conta
07:30
at the youth unemployment of the country,
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cal é a tasa nacional de
desemprego de xente xóven:
desemprego de xente xóven:
07:33
the highest in the world.
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a maior do mundo.
07:35
If over 70 percent of a country's population
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Se aproximadamente un 70
por cento da poboación dun país
por cento da poboación dun país
07:38
under the age of 35 is unemployed,
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por debaixo de 35 anos está desempregada
07:42
of course this has a huge impact on the economy
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por suposto ten un gran impacto
na economía
na economía
07:45
today and even more so in the future.
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hoxe e índa máis no futuro.
07:49
Well, our friends at Moody's,
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Ben, os nosos amigos de Moody's,
07:52
Standard & Poor's, and Fitch will tell us
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Standard & Poor's e Fitch diríannos
07:54
we would take this into account as well.
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que tamén teñen isto en conta
07:57
But guess what? We do not know
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pero, ¿sabedes qué? Non sabemos
07:59
exactly how they will take this into account.
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exactamente ata onde o teñen en conta.
08:02
And this leads me to the third big difference
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Isto lévame a terceira gran diferenza
08:04
that INCRA would make.
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que INCRA faría.
08:06
INCRA would not only release its ratings
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INCRA non publicaría soamente
as súas avaliacións,
as súas avaliacións,
08:09
but it would also release its indicators
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tamén os seus indicadores
08:12
and methodology.
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e metodoloxía.
08:14
So in contrast to the current system,
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Polo que en comparación co sistema actual
08:16
INCRA would be fully transparent.
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INCRA sería totalmente transparente.
08:20
So in a nutshell,
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En resume,
08:21
INCRA would offer an alternative
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INCRA ofrecería unha alternativa
08:24
to the current system of
the big three rating agencies
the big three rating agencies
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ó sistema actual das tres grandes axencias
08:27
by adding a new, nonprofit player to the mix
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o engadir unha entidade nova
e sen ánimo de lucro na ecuación,
e sen ánimo de lucro na ecuación,
08:31
that would increase the competition,
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que incrementaría a competición
08:33
it would increase the transparency of the sector,
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e incrementaría a transparencia no sector
08:36
and it would also increase the quality.
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e tamén a equidade.
08:39
I can tell that sovereign ratings
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Podo dicir que as avaliacións soberanas
08:41
may still look to you like this very small piece
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poden semellar só un anaco
08:44
of this very complex global financial world,
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do tan complexo mundo financiero
08:48
but I tell you it's a very important one,
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pero dígovos que é un anaco moi importante,
08:51
and a very important one to fix,
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e un moi importante a mañar.
08:53
because sovereign ratings affect all of us,
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porque as avaliacións soberanas
aféctannos a todos
aféctannos a todos
08:56
and they should be addressed and should be defined
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e deberían especificarse e definirse
09:00
as public goods.
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coma bens públicos.
09:01
And this is why we are testing our model right now,
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Por iso estamos a proba-lo noso
modelo agora mesmo
modelo agora mesmo
09:04
and why we are trying to find out if it can
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e estamos intentando descubrir se
09:07
bring together a group of able and willing actors
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pode atraer un grupo de actores
capaces e con ganas
capaces e con ganas
09:10
to bring INCRA to life.
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de darlle vida a INCRA.
09:13
I truly believe building up INCRA
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Estou convencida de que crear INCRA
09:16
is in everyone's interest,
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é en beneficio de todos
09:18
and that we have the unique opportunity right now
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e que agora mesmo temo-la
oportunidade única
oportunidade única
09:22
to turn INCRA into a cornerstone
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de converter INCRA nunha pedra angular
09:24
of a new, more inclusive financial system.
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dun sistema financeiro novo e máis inclusivo
09:29
Because for way too long,
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porque permitimos por moito tempo que
09:31
we have left the big financial players on their own.
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as grandes entidades financeiras
estivesen sóas.
estivesen sóas.
09:35
It's time to give them some company.
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É hora de facerlles compañía.
09:38
Thank you.
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Gracias.
09:40
(Applause)
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(Aplauso)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Annette Heuser - Rating agency reformerAnnette Heuser proposes critical reforms to loosen the iron grip of rating agencies on national credit scores.
Why you should listen
Credit rating agencies, with their power to downgrade credit ratings for entire nations, have come under intense scrutiny and recent events have put their acceptance and transparency into question. What if there was an alternative, free from the limitations and weakened legitimacy that encumbers the big three agencies?
Annette Heuser, executive director of the Washington branch of the German Bertelsmann Foundation, has created a blueprint for a new, non-profit solution to loosen the agencies’ iron grip. The International Nonprofit Credit Rating Agency (INCRA) would conduct unsolicited foreign-risk assessments, redefining sovereign ratings as a public good, and could dramatically shift the financial futures of the world.
Annette Heuser | Speaker | TED.com