TED2005
Larry Burns: The future of cars
Larry Burns o budućnosti automobila
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Larry Burns, potpredsjednik General Motorsa, prikazuje narednu generaciju automobilskog dizajna: elegantna, prilagodljiva (i računalno poboljšana) vozila koja se pokreću čistom vodikovom energijom -- i vraćaju energiju natrag u električnu mrežu kada ne voze.
Larry Burns - Automotive researcher
Larry Burns is the vice president of R&D for GM. His job? Find a new way to power cars. Full bio
Larry Burns is the vice president of R&D for GM. His job? Find a new way to power cars. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:18
People love their automobiles.
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Ljudi vole svoje automobile.
00:19
They allow us to go where we want to when we want to.
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Oni nam omogućavaju da idemo gdje želimo kad to želimo.
00:22
They're a form of entertainment,
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Oni su oblik zabave,
00:24
they're a form of art,
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oblik umjetnosti,
00:27
a pride of ownership.
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ponos vlasništva.
00:28
Songs are written about cars.
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Postoje pjesme o automobilima.
00:30
Prince wrote a great song: "Little Red Corvette."
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Prince je napisao sjajnu pjesmu: "Mala crvena Corvetta."
00:33
He didn't write "Little Red Laptop Computer" or "Little Red Dirt Devil."
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Nije napisao "Mali crveni laptop" ili "Mali crveni vrag."
00:36
He wrote about a car.
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Pisao je o autu.
00:37
And one of my favorites has always been,
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Meni je jedna od najdražih uvijek bila,
00:39
"Make love to your man in a Chevy van,"
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"Vodi ljubav sa svojim čovjekom u Chevrolet kombiju,"
00:41
because that was my vehicle when I was in college.
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jer je to bilo moje vozilo u koledžu.
00:44
The fact is, when we do our market research around the world,
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Kada radimo istraživanje tržišta širom svijeta,
00:47
we see that there's nearly a universal aspiration on the part of people
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vidimo kod ljudi gotovo univerzalnu težnju
00:51
to own an automobile.
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k posjedovanju automobila.
00:53
And 750 million people in the world today own a car.
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750 milijuna ljudi u svijetu danas imaju automobil.
00:57
And you say, boy, that's a lot.
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I reći ćete, hej, to je mnogo.
00:59
But you know what?
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No znate što?
01:00
That's just 12 percent of the population.
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To je samo 12 posto stanovništva.
01:02
We really have to ask the question:
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Zaista moramo postaviti pitanje:
01:04
Can the world sustain that number of automobiles?
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Može li svijet podnijeti taj broj automobila?
01:07
And if you look at projections over the next 10 to 15 to 20 years,
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A kad pogledamo prognoze za sljedećih 10, 15 ili 20 godina,
01:11
it looks like the world car park could grow to on the order of 1.1 billion vehicles.
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izgleda da bi svjetski vozni park mogao narasti na 1,1 milijardu vozila.
01:17
Now, if you parked those end to end
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Ako biste ih parkirali jedno do drugoga
01:19
and wrapped them around the Earth,
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i omotali ih oko Zemlje,
01:21
that would stretch around the Earth 125 times.
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ta vozila bi se oko Zemlje omotala 125 puta.
01:25
Now, we've made great progress with automobile technology over the last 100 years.
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Automobilska tehnologija je ostvarila veliki napredak tijekom proteklih 100 godina.
01:29
Cars are dramatically cleaner, dramatically safer, more efficient
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Auti su dramatično čišći, sigurniji, efikasniji
01:33
and radically more affordable than they were 100 years ago.
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i radikalno dostupniji nego što su to bili prije 100 godina.
01:37
But the fact remains:
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Ali je činjenica:
01:39
the fundamental DNA of the automobile has stayed pretty much the same.
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Fundamentalni DNK automobila ostao je uglavnom isti.
01:43
If we are going to reinvent the automobile today, rather than 100 years ago,
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Ako bismo danas izumili automobil, za razliku od onog otprije 100 godina,
01:48
knowing what we know about the issues associated with our product
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znajući ono što znamo o problemima povezanim s tim proizvodom
01:51
and about the technologies that exist today,
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i s obzirom na danas postojeće tehnologije,
01:53
what would we do?
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što bismo stvorili?
01:55
We wanted something that was really affordable.
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Željeli bismo nešto što si ljudi mogu priuštiti.
01:57
The fuel cell looked great:
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Pogonska ćelija izgleda odlično:
01:59
one-tenth as many moving parts
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samo jedna desetina pokretnih dijelova
02:01
and a fuel-cell propulsion system as an internal combustion engine --
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i pogonski sustav ćelije kao motor s unutrašnjim izgaranjem --
02:04
and it emits just water.
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a ispušta samo vodu.
02:05
And we wanted to take advantage of Moore's Law
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A željeli bismo iskoristiti Mooreov zakon
02:07
with electronic controls and software,
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s elektroničkim upravljanjem i softverom,
02:09
and we absolutely wanted our car to be connected.
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i apsolutno želimo da nam auto bude povezan.
02:12
So we embarked upon the reinvention
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Pa smo se upustili u ponovno otkrivanje
02:14
around an electrochemical engine,
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elektrokemijskog motora
02:16
the fuel cell, hydrogen as the energy carrier.
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pogonske ćelije, gdje je vodik nositelj energije.
02:20
First was Autonomy.
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Prvo je bio Autonomy.
02:21
Autonomy really set the vision for where we wanted to head.
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Autonomy je definirao viziju kamo težimo.
02:24
We embodied all of the key components of a fuel cell propulsion system.
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Uvrstili smo sve ključne komponente sustava pogonske ćelije.
02:28
We then had Autonomy drivable with Hy-Wire,
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Zatim smo pokrenuli naš Autonomy pomoću Hy-Wire pogona,
02:31
and we showed Hy-Wire here at this conference last year.
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na lanjskoj konferenciji smo ovdje pokazali Hy-Wire.
02:34
Hy-Wire is the world's first drivable fuel cell,
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Hy-Wire je prva svjetska upravljiva pogonska ćelija,
02:37
and we have followed up that now with Sequel.
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a zatim smo nastavili sa Sequelom.
02:40
And Sequel truly is a real car.
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Sequel je istinski sjajan automobil.
02:42
So if we would run the video --
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Ako možemo pokrenuti video --
04:11
But the real key question I'm sure that's on your mind:
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Ali ključno pitanje koje vam je sigurno na pameti:
04:13
where's the hydrogen going to come from?
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odakle će doći taj vodik?
04:15
And secondly, when are these kinds of cars going to be available?
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I drugo, kad će ovakvi automobili postati dostupni?
04:19
So let me talk about hydrogen first.
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Pa dopustite da prvo govorim o vodiku.
04:21
The beauty of hydrogen is it can come from so many different sources:
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Ljepota s vodikom je ta što može doći iz mnogo različitih izvora:
04:24
it can come from fossil fuels,
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iz fosilnih goriva,
04:26
it can come from any way that you can create electricity,
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možemo ga dobiti na sve načine na koje proizvodimo električnu energiju,
04:29
including renewables.
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uključujući i obnovljive izvore.
04:31
And it can come from biofuels.
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A može doći i iz biogoriva.
04:32
And that's quite exciting.
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A to je uzbudljivo.
04:34
The vision here is
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Ideja je
04:35
to have each local community
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da svaka lokalna zajednica
04:37
play to its natural strength
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koristi svoje prirodne prednosti
04:38
in creating the hydrogen.
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u proizvodnji vodika.
04:40
A lot of hydrogen's produced today in the world.
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Danas u svijetu proizvodimo mnogo vodika.
04:42
It's produced to get sulfur out of gasoline
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Proizvodi se da izvučemo sumpor iz benzina
04:44
-- which I find is somewhat ironic.
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-- što mi djeluje pomalo ironično.
04:46
It's produced in the fertilizer industry;
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Proizvodimo ga u industriji umjetnih gnojiva;
04:49
it's produced in the chemical manufacturing industry.
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proizvodimo ga u kemijskoj prerađivačkoj industriji.
04:52
That hydrogen's being made because
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Vodik se proizvodi
04:54
there's a good business reason for its use.
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jer postoje dobri poslovni razlozi za njegovu upotrebu.
04:57
But it tells us that we know how to create it,
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Ali to nam govori da ga znamo proizvesti,
04:58
we know how to create it cost effectively,
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znamo ga proizvesti troškovno učinkovito,
05:01
we know how to handle it safely.
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znamo njime sigurno baratati.
05:04
We did an analysis
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Napravili smo analizu
05:05
where you would have a station in each city
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po kojoj biste imali postaju u svakom gradu
05:07
with each of the 100 largest cities in the United States,
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u svakom od 100 najvećih gradova u Sjedinjenim Državama,
05:10
and located the stations
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i smjestili smo postaje tako
05:12
so you'd be no more than two miles from a station at any time.
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da ne biste bili udaljeniji od tri kilometra od postaje ni u jednom trenu.
05:15
We put one every 25 miles on the freeway,
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Stavili smo postaju na svakih 40 kilometara auto ceste,
05:17
and it turns out that translates into about 12,000 stations.
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i pokazalo se da je riječ o 12.000 postaja.
05:22
And at a million dollars each,
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Po cijeni od milijun dolara po postaji,
05:23
that would be about 12 billion dollars.
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dolazimo do iznosa od 12 milijardi dolara.
05:24
Now that's a lot of money.
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To je mnogo novca.
05:26
But if you built the Alaskan pipeline today,
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Ali kad biste danas gradili naftovod Aljaske,
05:28
that's half of what the Alaskan pipeline would cost.
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ovo je tek polovica onoga što bi koštala izgradnja naftovoda.
05:31
But the real exciting vision that we see truly is home refueling,
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No naša stvarno uzbudljiva vizija je kućno punjenje,
05:36
much like recharging your laptop or recharging your cellphone.
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otprilike kao punjene vašeg laptopa ili mobitela.
05:39
So we're pretty excited about the future of hydrogen.
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Tako da smo prilično uzbuđeni budućnošću vodika.
05:42
We think it's a question of not whether, but a question of when.
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Mislimo da nije pitanje hoćemo li, već kada ćemo.
05:46
What we've targeted for ourselves
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Ono što smo sebi zadali kao cilj
05:48
-- and we're making great progress for this goal --
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-- i postižemo zaista veliki napredak --
05:50
is to have a propulsion system
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je dobiti pogonski sustav
05:52
based on hydrogen and fuel cells,
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koji se temelji na vodiku i pogonskim ćelijama,
05:54
designed and validated,
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oblikovati ga i potvrditi,
05:56
that can go head-to-head with the internal combustion engine --
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kako bi se mogao nadmetati s motorom na unutarnje sagorijevanje --
05:58
we're talking about obsoleting the internal combustion engine --
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govorimo o tome da motor s unutarnjim sagorijevanjem učinimo zastarjelim --
06:01
and do it in terms of its affordability,
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i to na temelju kriterija cijene,
06:04
add skill volumes, its performance and its durability.
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volumena, izvedbe i trajnosti.
06:07
So that's what we're driving to for 2010.
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Tome težimo u 2010. godini.
06:10
We haven't seen anything yet in our development work
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Nismo naišli ni na što u razvijanju ovoga
06:12
that says that isn't possible.
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što bi nam reklo da je to nemoguće.
06:14
We actually think the future's going to be event-driven.
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Zapravo mislimo da će budućnost pokretati događaji.
06:17
So since we can't predict the future,
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A kako ne možemo predvidjeti budućnost,
06:19
we want to spend a lot of our time
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želimo trošiti mnogo našeg vremena
06:20
trying to create that future.
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u pokušaju da stvorimo tu budućnost.
06:22
I'm very, very intrigued by the fact that our cars and trucks
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Jako me intrigira činjenica da naši auti i kamioni
06:26
sit idle 90 percent of the time:
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sjede besposleno 90 posto vremena:
06:28
they're parked, they're parked all around us.
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parkirani su, parkirani svuda oko nas.
06:30
They're usually parked within 100 feet of the people that own them.
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Obično su parkirani na udaljenosti do 30 metara od svojih vlasnika.
06:34
Now, if you take the power-generating capability of an automobile
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Ako razmotrite sposobnost automobila da stvori energiju
06:37
and you compare that to the electric grid in the United States,
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i usporedite je s električnom mrežom Sjedinjenih Država,
06:41
it turns out that four percent of the automobiles, the power in four percent of the automobiles,
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pokazuje se da je energija u 4 posto automobila,
06:45
equals that of the electric grid of the US.
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jednaka energiji električne mreže Sjedinjenih Država.
06:48
that's a huge power-generating capability,
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To je ogromna sposobnost proizvodnje energije,
06:51
a mobile power-generating capability.
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mobilna sposobnost proizvodnje energije.
06:53
And hydrogen and fuel cells give us that opportunity
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A vodik i pogonske ćelije na pružaju priliku
06:56
to actually use our cars and trucks when they're parked
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da koristimo naše aute i kamione dok su parkirani
06:59
to generate electricity for the grid.
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da proizvode struju za mrežu.
07:01
And we talked about swarm networks earlier.
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Ranije smo govorili o mrežama-rojevima.
07:03
And talking about the ultimate swarm, about having all of the processors
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O najvećem roju, u kojem su svi procesori
07:06
and all of the cars when they're sitting idle
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i svi automobili kad su parkirani
07:08
being part of a global grid for computing capability.
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dio globalne mreže koja daje računalni kapacitet.
07:12
We find that premise quite exciting.
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Mislimo da je ta premisa vrlo uzbudljiva.
07:14
The automobile becomes, then, an appliance,
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Automobil tada postaje uređaj,
07:17
not in a commodity sense,
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ne u smislu potrošne robe,
07:18
but an appliance, mobile power, mobile platform
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već kao uređaj, mobilni izvor energije, mobilna platforma
07:21
for information and computing and communication,
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za informacije, obradu podataka i komunikaciju,
07:24
as well as a form of transportation.
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kao i vid transporta.
07:26
And the key to all of this is to make it affordable,
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A ključ za sve ovo je da učinimo jeftinim,
07:29
to make it exciting,
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uzbudljivim,
07:30
to get it on a pathway where there's a way to make money doing it.
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da ga stavimo na putanju na kojoj postoji način da se zaradi u tom poslu.
07:33
And again, this is a pretty big march to take here.
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Ovo je vrlo veliki marš kojega moramo poduzeti.
07:36
And a lot of people say,
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Mnogi kažu,
07:37
how do you sleep at night when you're rustling with a problem of that magnitude?
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kako spavate noću boreći se s problemom tog reda veličine?
07:40
And I tell them I sleep like a baby:
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Kažem im da spavam kao beba:
07:41
I wake up crying every two hours.
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Budim se plačući svaka dva sata.
07:45
Actually the theme of this conference, I think, has hit on really one of the major keys to pull that off --
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Tema ove konferencije je, mislim, dotaknula jedan od ključnih elemenata potrebnih da uspijemo u ovome --
07:50
and that's relationships and working together.
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a to su odnosi i zajednički rad.
07:52
Thank you very much.
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Hvala vam lijepa.
07:53
(Applause).
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(Pljesak).
07:57
Chris Anderson: Larry, Larry, wait, wait, wait, wait, Larry, wait, wait one sec.
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Chris Anderson: Larry, Larry, čekaj, čekaj, čekaj, čekaj, Larry, čekaj, čekaj sekundu.
08:02
Just -- I've got so many questions I could ask you.
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Imam puno pitanja koje bih ti mogao postaviti.
08:05
I just want to ask one.
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Ali postavit ću samo jedno.
08:07
You know, I could be wrong about this,
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Znaš, možda nisam u pravu,
08:08
but my sense is that in the public mind, today,
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ali imam osjećaj da javnost danas,
08:12
that GM is not viewed as serious about some of these environmental ideas
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ne misli da je GM tako ozbiljan kad je u pitanju zaštita okoliša
08:19
as some of your Japanese competitors, maybe even as Ford.
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kao što su neki vaši japanski konkurenti, možda čak i Ford.
08:22
Are you serious about it,
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Jeste li ozbiljni u ovome,
08:25
and not just, you know, when the consumers want it,
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a ne samo, znaš, kad to kupci žele,
08:29
when the regulators force us to do it we will go there?
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kad nas zakoni tjeraju da pođemo u tom smjeru?
08:32
Are you guys going to really try and show leadership on this?
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Hoćete li vi zaista pokušati pokazati vodstvo u ovome?
08:34
Larry Burns: Yeah, we're absolutely serious.
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Larry Burns: Da, apsolutno smo ozbiljni.
08:36
We're into this over a billion dollars already,
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Uložili smo u ovo već više od milijardu dolara,
08:39
so I would hope people would think we're serious
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i nadam se da ljudi misle da smo ozbiljni
08:41
when we're spending that kind of money.
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kad trošimo toliko novca.
08:43
And secondly, it's a fundamental business proposition.
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A drugo, to je fundamentalno dobar posao.
08:47
I'll be honest with you:
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Bit ću iskren s tobom:
08:48
we're into it because of business growth opportunities.
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u tome smo zbog mogućnosti poslovnog rasta.
08:49
We can't grow our business unless we solve these problems.
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Ne možemo povećati naš posao ako ne riješimo te probleme.
08:53
The growth of the auto industry will be capped by sustainability issues
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Rast auto industrije će ograničiti problemi održivosti
08:55
if we don't solve the problems.
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ako ne riješimo te probleme.
08:57
And there's a simple principle of strategy that says:
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A jednostavno strateško načelo kaže:
09:00
Do unto yourself before others do unto you.
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Uradi to sam, prije nego što ti drugi urade.
09:02
If we can see this possible future, others can too.
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Ako mi vidimo ovu moguću budućnost, vide je i drugi.
09:05
And we want to be the first one to create it, Chris.
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A mi želimo biti prvi koji će je stvoriti, Chris.
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Larry Burns - Automotive researcherLarry Burns is the vice president of R&D for GM. His job? Find a new way to power cars.
Why you should listen
Larry Burns is on a mission: to reinvent the automobile using nonpolluting hydrogen fuel cells. As the vice president of R&D and strategic planning at GM, he's one of the people who will be called on to lead the US auto industry into its next incarnation.
Burns has been a persistent advocate of hydrogen power and other advanced propulsion and materials technologies for cars. His thinking is, the industry can keep making small energy improvements in the current cars it makes -- or it can take a big leap forward to build a whole new kind of car.
Larry Burns | Speaker | TED.com