TED2005
Larry Burns: The future of cars
Leri Barns (Larry Burns) o budućnosti automobila
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Leri Barns, potpredsednik "Dženeral Motorsa", prikazuje sledeću generaciju automobilskog dizajna: elegantna, prilagodljiva (i tehnološki poboljšana) vozila koja koriste čistu energiju vodonika -- i vraćaju energiju nazad u električnu mrežu, kada nisu u pokretu.
Larry Burns - Automotive researcher
Larry Burns is the vice president of R&D for GM. His job? Find a new way to power cars. Full bio
Larry Burns is the vice president of R&D for GM. His job? Find a new way to power cars. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:18
People love their automobiles.
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Ljudi vole svoje automobile.
00:19
They allow us to go where we want to when we want to.
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Oni nam omogućavaju da idemo gde i kada to želimo.
00:22
They're a form of entertainment,
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Oni su vrsta zabave,
00:24
they're a form of art,
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vrsta umetnosti,
00:27
a pride of ownership.
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ponos vlasništva.
00:28
Songs are written about cars.
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Pišu se pesme o automobilima.
00:30
Prince wrote a great song: "Little Red Corvette."
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Princ je napisao sjajnu pesmu: "Mala crvena Korveta."
00:33
He didn't write "Little Red Laptop Computer" or "Little Red Dirt Devil."
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Nije napisao: "Mali crveni laptop" ili "Mali crveni đavo."
00:36
He wrote about a car.
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Pisao je o automobilu.
00:37
And one of my favorites has always been,
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Meni, jedna od najboljih je uvek bila
00:39
"Make love to your man in a Chevy van,"
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"Vodi ljubav sa svojim čovekom u Ševrolet kombiju",
00:41
because that was my vehicle when I was in college.
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jer sam imao isti takav automobil za vreme studija.
00:44
The fact is, when we do our market research around the world,
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Kada radimo istraživanje tržišta širom sveta,
00:47
we see that there's nearly a universal aspiration on the part of people
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vidimo da kod jednog dela ljudi postoji skoro univerzalna težnja
00:51
to own an automobile.
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za posedovanjem automobila.
00:53
And 750 million people in the world today own a car.
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750 miliona ljudi u svetu danas poseduje automobil.
00:57
And you say, boy, that's a lot.
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Onda kažemo, čoveče, pa to je mnogo.
00:59
But you know what?
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Ali znate šta?
01:00
That's just 12 percent of the population.
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Reč je samo o 12 posto stanovništva.
01:02
We really have to ask the question:
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Zaista moramo postaviti pitanje:
01:04
Can the world sustain that number of automobiles?
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može li svet podneti toliki broj automobila?
01:07
And if you look at projections over the next 10 to 15 to 20 years,
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Ako pogledate predviđanja za sledećih 10 do 15 ili 20 godina,
01:11
it looks like the world car park could grow to on the order of 1.1 billion vehicles.
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čini se da bi svetski vozni park mogao narasti na 1,1 milijardu vozila.
01:17
Now, if you parked those end to end
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Ako biste ih parkirali jedno ispred drugog,
01:19
and wrapped them around the Earth,
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i omotali ih oko Zemlje,
01:21
that would stretch around the Earth 125 times.
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mogli biste to uraditi 125 puta.
01:25
Now, we've made great progress with automobile technology over the last 100 years.
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Automobilska tehnologija je ostvarila veliki napredak tokom proteklih 100 godina.
01:29
Cars are dramatically cleaner, dramatically safer, more efficient
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Automobili su značajno čistiji, sigurniji, efikasniji
01:33
and radically more affordable than they were 100 years ago.
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i radikalno dostupniji nego što su to bili pre 100 godina.
01:37
But the fact remains:
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Ali ostaje činjenica:
01:39
the fundamental DNA of the automobile has stayed pretty much the same.
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fundamentalni DNK automobila ostao je uglavnom isti.
01:43
If we are going to reinvent the automobile today, rather than 100 years ago,
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Ako bismo danas izumeli automobil, za razliku od onog pre 100 godina,
01:48
knowing what we know about the issues associated with our product
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znajući ono što znamo o problemima povezanim sa tim proizvodom
01:51
and about the technologies that exist today,
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i s obzirom na danas postojeće tehnologije,
01:53
what would we do?
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šta bismo stvorili?
01:55
We wanted something that was really affordable.
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Želeli bismo nešto što ljudi sebi mogu priuštiti.
01:57
The fuel cell looked great:
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Pogonska ćelija izgleda odlično:
01:59
one-tenth as many moving parts
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samo jedna desetina pokretnih delova
02:01
and a fuel-cell propulsion system as an internal combustion engine --
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i pogonski sistem ćelije kao motor s unutrašnjim sagorevanjem --
02:04
and it emits just water.
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a ispušta samo vodu.
02:05
And we wanted to take advantage of Moore's Law
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Želeli smo iskoristiti Murov zakon
02:07
with electronic controls and software,
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s elektronskim upravljanjem i softverom,
02:09
and we absolutely wanted our car to be connected.
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i apsolutno želimo da nam auto bude povezan.
02:12
So we embarked upon the reinvention
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Stoga smo se upustili u ponovno otkrivanje
02:14
around an electrochemical engine,
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elektrohemijskog motora,
02:16
the fuel cell, hydrogen as the energy carrier.
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pogonske ćelije, gde je vodonik nosilac energije.
02:20
First was Autonomy.
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Prvo je bio Autonomi.
02:21
Autonomy really set the vision for where we wanted to head.
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Autonomi je definisao viziju kojoj težimo.
02:24
We embodied all of the key components of a fuel cell propulsion system.
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Uvrstili smo sve ključne komponente sistema pogonske ćelije.
02:28
We then had Autonomy drivable with Hy-Wire,
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Zatim smo pokrenuli naš Autonomi pomoću "haj-vajer" pogona,
02:31
and we showed Hy-Wire here at this conference last year.
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na prošlogodišnjoj konferenciji ovde smo pokazali "haj-vajer".
02:34
Hy-Wire is the world's first drivable fuel cell,
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"Haj-vajer" je prva svetska upravljiva pogonska ćelija,
02:37
and we have followed up that now with Sequel.
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a zatim smo nastavili sa Sikvelom.
02:40
And Sequel truly is a real car.
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Sikvel je zaista sjajan automobil.
02:42
So if we would run the video --
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Ako možemo da pokrenemo video --
04:11
But the real key question I'm sure that's on your mind:
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Ključno pitanje koje vam je, siguran sam, na pameti:
04:13
where's the hydrogen going to come from?
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odakle će doći taj vodonik?
04:15
And secondly, when are these kinds of cars going to be available?
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I drugo, kada će ovakvi automobili postati dostupni?
04:19
So let me talk about hydrogen first.
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Dopustite da prvo govorim o vodoniku.
04:21
The beauty of hydrogen is it can come from so many different sources:
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Lepota vodonika je u tome što može nastati iz mnogo različitih izvora:
04:24
it can come from fossil fuels,
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iz fosilnih goriva,
04:26
it can come from any way that you can create electricity,
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možemo ga dobiti na iste načine na koje proizvodimo električnu energiju,
04:29
including renewables.
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uključujući i obnovljive izvore.
04:31
And it can come from biofuels.
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A može nastati i iz biogoriva.
04:32
And that's quite exciting.
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Što je veoma uzbudljivo.
04:34
The vision here is
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Ideja je
04:35
to have each local community
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da svaka lokalna zajednica
04:37
play to its natural strength
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koristi svoje prirodne prednosti
04:38
in creating the hydrogen.
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u proizvodnji vodonika.
04:40
A lot of hydrogen's produced today in the world.
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Danas u svetu proizvodimo mnogo vodonika.
04:42
It's produced to get sulfur out of gasoline
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Proizvodi se da bismo eliminisali sumpor iz benzina
04:44
-- which I find is somewhat ironic.
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-- što mi djeluje pomalo ironično.
04:46
It's produced in the fertilizer industry;
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Proizvodimo ga u industriji veštačkih đubriva;
04:49
it's produced in the chemical manufacturing industry.
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u hemijskoj prerađivačkoj industriji.
04:52
That hydrogen's being made because
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Vodonik se proizvodi
04:54
there's a good business reason for its use.
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jer postoje dobri poslovni razlozi za njegovu upotrebu.
04:57
But it tells us that we know how to create it,
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To nam govori da znamo kako da ga proizvedemo,
04:58
we know how to create it cost effectively,
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znamo da ga proizvedemo troškovno efikasno,
05:01
we know how to handle it safely.
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znamo njime da rukujemo bezbedno.
05:04
We did an analysis
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Napravili smo analizu
05:05
where you would have a station in each city
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po kojoj biste imali stanicu u svakom od 100
05:07
with each of the 100 largest cities in the United States,
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najvećih gradova u Sjedinjenim Državama,
05:10
and located the stations
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i smestili smo ih tako
05:12
so you'd be no more than two miles from a station at any time.
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da ne biste ni u kom slučaju bili dalje od tri kilometra od stanice.
05:15
We put one every 25 miles on the freeway,
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Postavili smo stanicu na svakih 40 kilometara auto-puta,
05:17
and it turns out that translates into about 12,000 stations.
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i pokazalo se da ih ima 12.000.
05:22
And at a million dollars each,
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Ako je cena svake stanice milion dolara,
05:23
that would be about 12 billion dollars.
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dolazimo do iznosa od 12 milijardi dolara.
05:24
Now that's a lot of money.
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To je mnogo novca.
05:26
But if you built the Alaskan pipeline today,
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Ali kad biste danas gradili naftovod Aljaske,
05:28
that's half of what the Alaskan pipeline would cost.
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ovo je tek polovina onoga koliko bi koštala izgradnja naftovoda.
05:31
But the real exciting vision that we see truly is home refueling,
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Međutim naša uzbudljiva vizija je kućno punjenje,
05:36
much like recharging your laptop or recharging your cellphone.
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otprilike kao punjenje vašeg laptopa ili mobilnog telefona.
05:39
So we're pretty excited about the future of hydrogen.
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Tako da smo prilično uzbuđeni zbog budućnosti vodonika.
05:42
We think it's a question of not whether, but a question of when.
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Mislimo da nije pitanje hoćemo li, već kada ćemo.
05:46
What we've targeted for ourselves
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Ono što smo sebi zadali kao cilj
05:48
-- and we're making great progress for this goal --
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-- i postižemo zaista veliki napredak --
05:50
is to have a propulsion system
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je dobiti pogonski sistem
05:52
based on hydrogen and fuel cells,
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zasnovan na vodoniku i pogonskim ćelijama,
05:54
designed and validated,
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oblikovan i potvrđen,
05:56
that can go head-to-head with the internal combustion engine --
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kako bi se mogao nadmetati sa motorom sa unutrašnjim sagorevanjem --
05:58
we're talking about obsoleting the internal combustion engine --
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govorimo o tome da motor sa unutrašnjim sagorevanjem -- učinimo zastarelim --
06:01
and do it in terms of its affordability,
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i to na temelju kriterijuma cene,
06:04
add skill volumes, its performance and its durability.
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veličine sposobnosti, perormansi i trajnosti.
06:07
So that's what we're driving to for 2010.
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Tome težimo u 2010. godini.
06:10
We haven't seen anything yet in our development work
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Do sad nismo naišli ni na jedan razlog
06:12
that says that isn't possible.
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koji bi nam rekao da je to nemoguće.
06:14
We actually think the future's going to be event-driven.
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Zapravo mislimo da će budućnost pokretati događaji.
06:17
So since we can't predict the future,
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A budući da ne možemo predvideti budućnost,
06:19
we want to spend a lot of our time
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želimo da potrošimo mnogo našeg vremena
06:20
trying to create that future.
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u pokušaju da stvorimo tu budućnost.
06:22
I'm very, very intrigued by the fact that our cars and trucks
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Veoma me intrigira činjenica da naši automobili i kamioni
06:26
sit idle 90 percent of the time:
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nisu u pokretu čak 90 posto vremena:
06:28
they're parked, they're parked all around us.
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parkirani su, parkirani svuda oko nas.
06:30
They're usually parked within 100 feet of the people that own them.
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Obično su parkirani na udaljenosti do 30 metara od svojih vlasnika.
06:34
Now, if you take the power-generating capability of an automobile
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Ako razmotrite sposobnost automobila da stvori energiju
06:37
and you compare that to the electric grid in the United States,
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i uporedite je sa električnom mrežom Sjedinjenih Država,
06:41
it turns out that four percent of the automobiles, the power in four percent of the automobiles,
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ispada da je energija u 4 posto automobila,
06:45
equals that of the electric grid of the US.
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jednaka energiji električne mreže Sjedinjenih Država.
06:48
that's a huge power-generating capability,
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To je ogromna sposobnost proizvodnje energije,
06:51
a mobile power-generating capability.
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mobilna sposobnost proizvodnje energije.
06:53
And hydrogen and fuel cells give us that opportunity
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A vodonik i pogonske ćelije nam pružaju priliku
06:56
to actually use our cars and trucks when they're parked
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da koristimo naše automobile i kamione i dok su parkirani
06:59
to generate electricity for the grid.
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radi proizvodnje struje za mrežu.
07:01
And we talked about swarm networks earlier.
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Ranije smo govorili o rojevima mreža.
07:03
And talking about the ultimate swarm, about having all of the processors
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O najvećem roju, u kom svi procesori
07:06
and all of the cars when they're sitting idle
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i svi automobili kad su parkirani čine
07:08
being part of a global grid for computing capability.
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deo globalne mreže koja daje sposobnost proračuna.
07:12
We find that premise quite exciting.
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Mislimo da je ta premisa vrlo uzbudljiva.
07:14
The automobile becomes, then, an appliance,
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Automobil tada postaje uređaj,
07:17
not in a commodity sense,
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ne u smislu potrošne robe,
07:18
but an appliance, mobile power, mobile platform
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već kao uređaj, mobilni izvor energije, mobilna platforma
07:21
for information and computing and communication,
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za informacije, obradu podataka i komunikaciju,
07:24
as well as a form of transportation.
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kao i vid transporta.
07:26
And the key to all of this is to make it affordable,
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A ključ za sve ovo je da ga učinimo jeftinim,
07:29
to make it exciting,
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uzbudljivim,
07:30
to get it on a pathway where there's a way to make money doing it.
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da ga stavimo na put u kome postoji način da se zaradi na tom poslu.
07:33
And again, this is a pretty big march to take here.
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Ovo je vrlo veliki marš koji ovde moramo učiniti.
07:36
And a lot of people say,
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Mnogi kažu,
07:37
how do you sleep at night when you're rustling with a problem of that magnitude?
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kako spavate noću boreći se sa tolikim problemom?
07:40
And I tell them I sleep like a baby:
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Kažem im da spavam kao beba:
07:41
I wake up crying every two hours.
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budim se plačući svaka dva sata.
07:45
Actually the theme of this conference, I think, has hit on really one of the major keys to pull that off --
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Tema ove konferencije je, mislim, dotakla jedan od ključnih elemenata potrebnih da uspemo u ovome --
07:50
and that's relationships and working together.
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a to su međusobni odnosi i zajednički rad.
07:52
Thank you very much.
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Hvala vam.
07:53
(Applause).
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(Aplauz)
07:57
Chris Anderson: Larry, Larry, wait, wait, wait, wait, Larry, wait, wait one sec.
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Kris Anderson: Leri, Leri, čekaj, čekaj, Leri sačekaj za momenat.
08:02
Just -- I've got so many questions I could ask you.
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Imam mnogo pitanja koja bih ti mogao postaviti.
08:05
I just want to ask one.
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Ali postaviću samo jedno.
08:07
You know, I could be wrong about this,
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Znaš, možda nisam u pravu,
08:08
but my sense is that in the public mind, today,
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ali imam osećaj da javnost danas
08:12
that GM is not viewed as serious about some of these environmental ideas
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ne misli da je GM tako ozbiljan kad je u pitanju zaštita okoline,
08:19
as some of your Japanese competitors, maybe even as Ford.
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kao što su to neki vaši japanski konkurenti, možda čak i Ford.
08:22
Are you serious about it,
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Jeste li ozbiljni u vezi sa ovim,
08:25
and not just, you know, when the consumers want it,
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a ne samo, znaš, kad to kupci žele,
08:29
when the regulators force us to do it we will go there?
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kad nas zakoni teraju da pođemo u tom smeru?
08:32
Are you guys going to really try and show leadership on this?
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Hoćete li zaista pokušati da pokažete vođstvo u ovome?
08:34
Larry Burns: Yeah, we're absolutely serious.
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Leri Barns: Da, apsolutno smo ozbiljni.
08:36
We're into this over a billion dollars already,
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Uložili smo u ovo već više od milijardu dolara,
08:39
so I would hope people would think we're serious
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i nadam se da ljudi misle da smo ozbiljni
08:41
when we're spending that kind of money.
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kad trošimo toliko novca.
08:43
And secondly, it's a fundamental business proposition.
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A drugo, to je fundamentalni poslovni predlog.
08:47
I'll be honest with you:
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Biću iskren sa tobom:
08:48
we're into it because of business growth opportunities.
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u tome smo zbog mogućnosti poslovnog rasta.
08:49
We can't grow our business unless we solve these problems.
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Ne možemo povećati posao ako ne rešimo te probleme.
08:53
The growth of the auto industry will be capped by sustainability issues
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Rast auto industrije će ograničiti problemi održivosti
08:55
if we don't solve the problems.
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ako ne rešimo te probleme.
08:57
And there's a simple principle of strategy that says:
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A jedno prosto strateško načelo kaže:
09:00
Do unto yourself before others do unto you.
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uradi to sam, pre nego što ti to drugi urade.
09:02
If we can see this possible future, others can too.
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Ako mi vidimo ovu moguću budućnost, vide je i drugi.
09:05
And we want to be the first one to create it, Chris.
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A mi želimo biti prvi koji će je stvoriti, Kris.
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Larry Burns - Automotive researcherLarry Burns is the vice president of R&D for GM. His job? Find a new way to power cars.
Why you should listen
Larry Burns is on a mission: to reinvent the automobile using nonpolluting hydrogen fuel cells. As the vice president of R&D and strategic planning at GM, he's one of the people who will be called on to lead the US auto industry into its next incarnation.
Burns has been a persistent advocate of hydrogen power and other advanced propulsion and materials technologies for cars. His thinking is, the industry can keep making small energy improvements in the current cars it makes -- or it can take a big leap forward to build a whole new kind of car.
Larry Burns | Speaker | TED.com