TED2005
Larry Burns: The future of cars
Larry Burns:談汽車的未來
Filmed:
Readability: 4.1
633,502 views
通用汽車副總裁 Larry Burns 預告下一個概念車會是，雅緻、客製化（高性能電腦化）的乾淨氫氣汽車。並且在怠速的時候會將電力傳回輸電網路。
Larry Burns - Automotive researcher
Larry Burns is the vice president of R&D for GM. His job? Find a new way to power cars. Full bio
Larry Burns is the vice president of R&D for GM. His job? Find a new way to power cars. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:18
People love their automobiles.
0
0
1000
人們很愛自己的車子
00:19
They allow us to go where we want to when we want to.
1
1000
3000
車子讓我們隨心所欲到各地去
00:22
They're a form of entertainment,
2
4000
1000
車子既是娛樂、
00:24
they're a form of art,
3
6000
2000
也是藝術、
00:27
a pride of ownership.
4
9000
1000
更象徵一種擁有的榮耀
00:28
Songs are written about cars.
5
10000
2000
有人爲車子寫了許多歌
00:30
Prince wrote a great song: "Little Red Corvette."
6
12000
2000
音樂鬼才 Prince 寫了一首很棒的「小紅跑車」
00:33
He didn't write "Little Red Laptop Computer" or "Little Red Dirt Devil."
7
15000
3000
他並沒有寫一首「小紅筆電」或「小紅吸塵器」的歌
00:36
He wrote about a car.
8
18000
1000
而是寫關於車子的歌
00:37
And one of my favorites has always been,
9
19000
2000
其中我最愛的一首歌就是
00:39
"Make love to your man in a Chevy van,"
10
21000
2000
「跟妳的男人在雪佛蘭小貨車上交歡」
00:41
because that was my vehicle when I was in college.
11
23000
3000
因為那就是我在大學時代開的車
00:44
The fact is, when we do our market research around the world,
12
26000
3000
事實上，當我們在世界各地進行市場調查時
00:47
we see that there's nearly a universal aspiration on the part of people
13
29000
4000
發現全世界的人幾乎都有個共同的渴望
00:51
to own an automobile.
14
33000
2000
那就是擁有一輛車子
00:53
And 750 million people in the world today own a car.
15
35000
4000
今天世界上有七億五千萬人擁有汽車
00:57
And you say, boy, that's a lot.
16
39000
1000
噢！天啊！你也許會說那真是多啊！
00:59
But you know what?
17
41000
1000
但是你知道嗎？
01:00
That's just 12 percent of the population.
18
42000
2000
那只佔了總人口數的百分之十二而已
01:02
We really have to ask the question:
19
44000
2000
我們真的必須問自己
01:04
Can the world sustain that number of automobiles?
20
46000
3000
這世界真的受得了那麼多的車子嗎？
01:07
And if you look at projections over the next 10 to 15 to 20 years,
21
49000
4000
如果你看未來十年、十五年至二十年的預測
01:11
it looks like the world car park could grow to on the order of 1.1 billion vehicles.
22
53000
6000
全球的停車場看起來會成長到可以容納11億輛汽車
01:17
Now, if you parked those end to end
23
59000
2000
如果你把他們一輛接一輛停在一起
01:19
and wrapped them around the Earth,
24
61000
2000
然後讓他們環繞地球
01:21
that would stretch around the Earth 125 times.
25
63000
3000
大概可以繞地球125圈
01:25
Now, we've made great progress with automobile technology over the last 100 years.
26
67000
4000
過去一百年來汽車技術有長足的進步
01:29
Cars are dramatically cleaner, dramatically safer, more efficient
27
71000
4000
現在的汽車比一百年前更乾淨、更安全、更有效率
01:33
and radically more affordable than they were 100 years ago.
28
75000
3000
而且更讓人買得起
01:37
But the fact remains:
29
79000
2000
但是事實上
01:39
the fundamental DNA of the automobile has stayed pretty much the same.
30
81000
4000
汽車的基本基因其實沒有改變太多
01:43
If we are going to reinvent the automobile today, rather than 100 years ago,
31
85000
5000
如果今天我們想要重新改造汽車，而不是像一百年前那樣的話
01:48
knowing what we know about the issues associated with our product
32
90000
3000
就我們對汽車相關問題的了解
01:51
and about the technologies that exist today,
33
93000
2000
以及對今日現有汽車技術的了解
01:53
what would we do?
34
95000
2000
我們會怎麼做呢?
01:55
We wanted something that was really affordable.
35
97000
2000
我們想要一種真正負擔得起的車子
01:57
The fuel cell looked great:
36
99000
1000
燃料電池看來很棒
01:59
one-tenth as many moving parts
37
101000
2000
只占現有汽車十分之一的運轉零件
02:01
and a fuel-cell propulsion system as an internal combustion engine --
38
103000
3000
並以燃料電池推進系統替代內燃機
02:04
and it emits just water.
39
106000
1000
而且只排放水
02:05
And we wanted to take advantage of Moore's Law
40
107000
1000
我們會利用摩爾定律
02:07
with electronic controls and software,
41
109000
2000
加上電子控制與軟體
02:09
and we absolutely wanted our car to be connected.
42
111000
3000
徹底讓我們的車子能夠被網路連結
02:12
So we embarked upon the reinvention
43
114000
2000
於是我們開始重新改造
02:14
around an electrochemical engine,
44
116000
2000
一組電氣化學引擎
02:16
the fuel cell, hydrogen as the energy carrier.
45
118000
4000
燃料電池、以氫氣作為電力載體
02:20
First was Autonomy.
46
122000
1000
首先是通用汽車的 Autonomy 氫燃料電池概念車
02:21
Autonomy really set the vision for where we wanted to head.
47
123000
3000
Autonomy 讓我們看到汽車未來的方向
02:24
We embodied all of the key components of a fuel cell propulsion system.
48
126000
4000
我們組裝了燃料電池推進系統的主要配件
02:28
We then had Autonomy drivable with Hy-Wire,
49
130000
2000
接著讓 Autonomy 概念車變成真正可以駕駛的 Hy-Wire 車款
02:31
and we showed Hy-Wire here at this conference last year.
50
133000
3000
去年我們在這個研討會上介紹了 Hy-Wire
02:34
Hy-Wire is the world's first drivable fuel cell,
51
136000
3000
Hy-Wire 是全世界第一輛可以上路的燃料電池汽車
02:37
and we have followed up that now with Sequel.
52
139000
3000
接著我們又研發出現在的 Sequel 氫燃料電池汽車
02:40
And Sequel truly is a real car.
53
142000
2000
而 Sequel 是一輛真真正正的汽車了
02:42
So if we would run the video --
54
144000
1000
如果我們可以來看一下影片
04:11
But the real key question I'm sure that's on your mind:
55
233000
2000
不過我相信你現在最想知道的是
04:13
where's the hydrogen going to come from?
56
235000
1000
氫氣要從哪裡來呢？
04:15
And secondly, when are these kinds of cars going to be available?
57
237000
3000
第二個問題是這種汽車何時才會上市呢？
04:19
So let me talk about hydrogen first.
58
241000
1000
首先，先讓我來談談氫氣
04:21
The beauty of hydrogen is it can come from so many different sources:
59
243000
3000
氫氣的優勢在於它可以被取自許多不同的來源
04:24
it can come from fossil fuels,
60
246000
2000
可以來自石化燃料
04:26
it can come from any way that you can create electricity,
61
248000
3000
或任何發電方式
04:29
including renewables.
62
251000
1000
包括再生能源
04:31
And it can come from biofuels.
63
253000
1000
也可取自生質燃料
04:32
And that's quite exciting.
64
254000
1000
這真的令人相當振奮
04:34
The vision here is
65
256000
1000
我們的願景是
04:35
to have each local community
66
257000
2000
讓各個在地社區
04:37
play to its natural strength
67
259000
1000
發揮其天然的優勢
04:38
in creating the hydrogen.
68
260000
1000
來製造氫氣
04:40
A lot of hydrogen's produced today in the world.
69
262000
2000
現在世界上已經製造了許多氫氣
04:42
It's produced to get sulfur out of gasoline
70
264000
2000
從汽油中提煉硫磺時就會產生氫氣
04:44
-- which I find is somewhat ironic.
71
266000
2000
我覺得這有點好笑
04:46
It's produced in the fertilizer industry;
72
268000
3000
肥料業也會產生氫氣
04:49
it's produced in the chemical manufacturing industry.
73
271000
3000
化學製造業也會產生氫氣
04:52
That hydrogen's being made because
74
274000
2000
我們製造氫氣是因為
04:54
there's a good business reason for its use.
75
276000
2000
它有商業用途
04:57
But it tells us that we know how to create it,
76
279000
1000
但這也代表我們知道如何製造氫氣
04:58
we know how to create it cost effectively,
77
280000
3000
我們知道如何以划算的方法製造氫氣
05:01
we know how to handle it safely.
78
283000
2000
我們也知道如何安全地處理氫氣
05:04
We did an analysis
79
286000
1000
我們做了一個分析
05:05
where you would have a station in each city
80
287000
2000
在每個城市都設一個加氣站
05:07
with each of the 100 largest cities in the United States,
81
289000
3000
在全美國的前一百個大城市
05:10
and located the stations
82
292000
2000
設置許多加氣站
05:12
so you'd be no more than two miles from a station at any time.
83
294000
2000
每個站距離不會超過兩英哩
05:15
We put one every 25 miles on the freeway,
84
297000
2000
在高速公路上，每二十五英哩就設一個站
05:17
and it turns out that translates into about 12,000 stations.
85
299000
4000
最後評估的結果是總共需要 12000 個站
05:22
And at a million dollars each,
86
304000
1000
如果設一個站需要花費 100 萬美金
05:23
that would be about 12 billion dollars.
87
305000
1000
那全部的設置將花費 120 億美金
05:24
Now that's a lot of money.
88
306000
1000
那是非常龐大的一筆錢
05:26
But if you built the Alaskan pipeline today,
89
308000
2000
但假設今天你要建設阿拉斯加大油管的話
05:28
that's half of what the Alaskan pipeline would cost.
90
310000
3000
120 億只是建設阿拉斯加大油管一半的費用
05:31
But the real exciting vision that we see truly is home refueling,
91
313000
4000
但是，令我們真正感到振奮的願景是，在家充氣
05:36
much like recharging your laptop or recharging your cellphone.
92
318000
3000
有點像是你在家充筆電或充手機
05:39
So we're pretty excited about the future of hydrogen.
93
321000
3000
所以我們真的對氫氣的未來滿懷期待
05:42
We think it's a question of not whether, but a question of when.
94
324000
4000
我們認為問題不是要不要，而是何時？
05:46
What we've targeted for ourselves
95
328000
2000
我們為自己設定的目標是
05:48
-- and we're making great progress for this goal --
96
330000
2000
而目前已經有相當大的進展了
05:50
is to have a propulsion system
97
332000
2000
就是製造出一個推進系統
05:52
based on hydrogen and fuel cells,
98
334000
2000
一個以氫氣和燃料電池為動力的推進系統
05:54
designed and validated,
99
336000
1000
設計完成並且經過認可
05:56
that can go head-to-head with the internal combustion engine --
100
338000
2000
可以與內燃機一較高下
05:58
we're talking about obsoleting the internal combustion engine --
101
340000
3000
我們現在談的是要淘汰掉內燃機
06:01
and do it in terms of its affordability,
102
343000
3000
且務必讓人人都買得起
06:04
add skill volumes, its performance and its durability.
103
346000
3000
提升汽車的技術、性能及耐力
06:07
So that's what we're driving to for 2010.
104
349000
3000
這就是我們在 2010 年希望達成的目標
06:10
We haven't seen anything yet in our development work
105
352000
2000
我們在研發工作的過程中
06:12
that says that isn't possible.
106
354000
2000
還沒有預見任何不可能的事情
06:14
We actually think the future's going to be event-driven.
107
356000
3000
我們其實認為未來的設計將會是「事件驅動」的方式
06:17
So since we can't predict the future,
108
359000
2000
既然我們無法預測未來
06:19
we want to spend a lot of our time
109
361000
1000
我們想要投入大量的時間
06:20
trying to create that future.
110
362000
2000
創造出那個未來
06:22
I'm very, very intrigued by the fact that our cars and trucks
111
364000
4000
汽車和卡車有百分之九十的時候都是閒置的
06:26
sit idle 90 percent of the time:
112
368000
2000
這點讓我非常感興趣
06:28
they're parked, they're parked all around us.
113
370000
2000
車子全都停放在我們四周
06:30
They're usually parked within 100 feet of the people that own them.
114
372000
4000
通常停放在離主人一百英呎之內
06:34
Now, if you take the power-generating capability of an automobile
115
376000
3000
如果你將汽車的發電能力
06:37
and you compare that to the electric grid in the United States,
116
379000
4000
跟美國的電力網做比較
06:41
it turns out that four percent of the automobiles, the power in four percent of the automobiles,
117
383000
4000
你會發現汽車所產生電力的百分之四
06:45
equals that of the electric grid of the US.
118
387000
3000
等於美國發電網所提供的電力
06:48
that's a huge power-generating capability,
119
390000
3000
那是相當大的發電能力啊！
06:51
a mobile power-generating capability.
120
393000
2000
是一個會移動的發電能力
06:53
And hydrogen and fuel cells give us that opportunity
121
395000
3000
而氫氣和燃料電池讓我們有機會
06:56
to actually use our cars and trucks when they're parked
122
398000
3000
在汽車和卡車閒置時還能實際利用它們
06:59
to generate electricity for the grid.
123
401000
2000
爲發電網提供電力
07:01
And we talked about swarm networks earlier.
124
403000
2000
早先我們談過群體網絡
07:03
And talking about the ultimate swarm, about having all of the processors
125
405000
3000
談過最終群體，以及讓所有的運算處理器
07:06
and all of the cars when they're sitting idle
126
408000
2000
和所有閒置的汽車
07:08
being part of a global grid for computing capability.
127
410000
4000
成為全球電腦運算網的一環
07:12
We find that premise quite exciting.
128
414000
2000
我們認為這個假設很令人振奮
07:14
The automobile becomes, then, an appliance,
129
416000
3000
如此一來，汽車就會變成一種電器用品
07:17
not in a commodity sense,
130
419000
1000
不只是一個商品
07:18
but an appliance, mobile power, mobile platform
131
420000
3000
而是一種用品、行動電力、行動資訊平台
07:21
for information and computing and communication,
132
423000
3000
也是一種電腦運算和電信通訊平台
07:24
as well as a form of transportation.
133
426000
2000
更是一種交通工具
07:26
And the key to all of this is to make it affordable,
134
428000
3000
最重要的關鍵就是要讓人買得起
07:29
to make it exciting,
135
431000
1000
讓人期待
07:30
to get it on a pathway where there's a way to make money doing it.
136
432000
2000
讓它朝花錢可以做得出來的方向發展
07:33
And again, this is a pretty big march to take here.
137
435000
3000
再者，這還有很長的一大段路要走
07:36
And a lot of people say,
138
438000
1000
很多人會說
07:37
how do you sleep at night when you're rustling with a problem of that magnitude?
139
439000
3000
當你忙著解決這麼重大的問題時，晚上怎麼睡得著啊！
07:40
And I tell them I sleep like a baby:
140
442000
1000
我說我睡得像嬰兒一樣
07:41
I wake up crying every two hours.
141
443000
2000
每兩個鐘頭就哭醒過來一次
07:45
Actually the theme of this conference, I think, has hit on really one of the major keys to pull that off --
142
447000
5000
其實我覺得這個研討會的主題，真的有碰觸到一個解決這問題的關鍵
07:50
and that's relationships and working together.
143
452000
2000
那就是人際關係和團結合作
07:52
Thank you very much.
144
454000
1000
謝謝大家！
07:53
(Applause).
145
455000
4000
(掌聲)
07:57
Chris Anderson: Larry, Larry, wait, wait, wait, wait, Larry, wait, wait one sec.
146
459000
4000
克里斯安德森：Larry，等等，等一下
08:02
Just -- I've got so many questions I could ask you.
147
464000
3000
我有好多問題要問你
08:05
I just want to ask one.
148
467000
2000
但我只想要請教一個問題
08:07
You know, I could be wrong about this,
149
469000
1000
你知道的，我或許有可能是錯的
08:08
but my sense is that in the public mind, today,
150
470000
4000
但是我認為在今日大眾的心裡面
08:12
that GM is not viewed as serious about some of these environmental ideas
151
474000
7000
都認為比起日本的競爭者，甚至是福特車廠
08:19
as some of your Japanese competitors, maybe even as Ford.
152
481000
3000
通用汽車對環保議題並不太注重
08:22
Are you serious about it,
153
484000
2000
你是認真的嗎？
08:25
and not just, you know, when the consumers want it,
154
487000
4000
你們做這些並不是因為消費者的需求
08:29
when the regulators force us to do it we will go there?
155
491000
3000
也不是為了應付政府法規，才朝那方向去做吧？
08:32
Are you guys going to really try and show leadership on this?
156
494000
2000
通用汽車真的想努力成為這方面的領導者嗎？
08:34
Larry Burns: Yeah, we're absolutely serious.
157
496000
2000
Larry Burns: 是的，我們絕對很認真
08:36
We're into this over a billion dollars already,
158
498000
3000
我們已經投資超過十億美金在這上面了
08:39
so I would hope people would think we're serious
159
501000
2000
所以我希望大家會知道我們是認真的
08:41
when we're spending that kind of money.
160
503000
1000
尤其是當我們已經投進了這麼龐大的資金
08:43
And secondly, it's a fundamental business proposition.
161
505000
4000
再說，這是十分重大的商業計畫
08:47
I'll be honest with you:
162
509000
1000
我得老實跟你說
08:48
we're into it because of business growth opportunities.
163
510000
1000
我們確實是看到了成長的商機才投入的
08:49
We can't grow our business unless we solve these problems.
164
511000
4000
如果不解決這些問題 ，我們的業務就無法成長
08:53
The growth of the auto industry will be capped by sustainability issues
165
515000
2000
如果不解決這些問題
08:55
if we don't solve the problems.
166
517000
2000
汽車產業的成長將被人類永續生存的問題給限制住
08:57
And there's a simple principle of strategy that says:
167
519000
3000
有個很簡單的策略原則是這樣說的
09:00
Do unto yourself before others do unto you.
168
522000
2000
自重而後人重
09:02
If we can see this possible future, others can too.
169
524000
3000
如果我們可以看見未來的願景，其他人一定也看得見
09:05
And we want to be the first one to create it, Chris.
170
527000
2000
Chris，我們想成為第一個創造那個未來的人
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Larry Burns - Automotive researcherLarry Burns is the vice president of R&D for GM. His job? Find a new way to power cars.
Why you should listen
Larry Burns is on a mission: to reinvent the automobile using nonpolluting hydrogen fuel cells. As the vice president of R&D and strategic planning at GM, he's one of the people who will be called on to lead the US auto industry into its next incarnation.
Burns has been a persistent advocate of hydrogen power and other advanced propulsion and materials technologies for cars. His thinking is, the industry can keep making small energy improvements in the current cars it makes -- or it can take a big leap forward to build a whole new kind of car.
Larry Burns | Speaker | TED.com