TEDxParis 2010
Guy-Philippe Goldstein: How cyberattacks threaten real-world peace
Gaj-Filip Goldstajn (Guy-Philippe Goldstein): Kako sajber napadi prete miru u svetu
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Napadi sajber oruzijem su sve cesci- tajni napadi na kompjuterske sisteme druge zemlje koji iza sebe ne ostavljaju traga. (Kao npr. Stuxnet worm). U okviru TedxParis, Guy-Philippe Goldstein objasnjava kako sajber napadi mogu da predju granicu izmedju digitalnog i fizickog sveta i izazovu oruzani konflikt- i kako bismo mogli da izbegnemo ovu opasnost po globalnu bezbednost.
Guy-Philippe Goldstein - Author
Guy-Philippe Goldstein is the author of Babel Minute Zero, a novel that examines the reality of cyberwar in our current geopolitical topography. Full bio
Guy-Philippe Goldstein is the author of Babel Minute Zero, a novel that examines the reality of cyberwar in our current geopolitical topography. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Good afternoon.
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Dobar dan.
00:16
If you have followed
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Ako ste pratili
00:18
diplomatic news in the past weeks,
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diplomatske vesti prethodnih nedelja,
00:20
you may have heard of a kind of crisis
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možda ste čuli za neku vrstu krize
00:22
between China and the U.S.
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koja je izbila između Kine i SAD
00:24
regarding cyberattacks
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u vezi sa sajber napadima
00:26
against the American company Google.
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na američku kompaniju Google.
00:28
Many things have been said about this.
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O ovome se mnogo pričalo.
00:30
Some people have called a cyberwar
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Pojedinici su nazvali sajber ratom
00:32
what may actually be
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ono što bi u stvari mogla da bude
00:34
just a spy operation --
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samo špijunska operacija -
00:36
and obviously, a quite mishandled one.
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i to, kao što je očigledno, vrlo nesupešna.
00:38
However, this episode reveals
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Pa ipak, ovaj događaj otkriva
00:41
the growing anxiety in the Western world
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rastuću uznemirenost u Zapadnom svetu
00:43
regarding these emerging cyber weapons.
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u vezi sa sajber oružjem
00:46
It so happens that these weapons are dangerous.
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Ovo oružje je zaista opasno.
00:48
They're of a new nature:
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I drugačije je:
00:50
they could lead the world
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i moglo bi da odvede svet
00:52
into a digital conflict
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u digitalni sukob
00:54
that could turn into an armed struggle.
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koji bi mogao da preraste u oružanu borbu.
00:56
These virtual weapons can also destroy the physical world.
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Ovo virtuelno oružje može da uništi i fizički svet.
01:01
In 1982, in the middle of the Cold War
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Usred Hladnog rata, 1982. godine
01:04
in Soviet Siberia,
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u sovjetskom Sibiru,
01:06
a pipeline exploded with a burst of 3 kilotons,
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eksplodirao je cevovod jačinom od 3 kilotone
01:10
the equivalent of a fourth of the Hiroshima bomb.
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što je jednako četvrtini eksplozije u Hirošimi.
01:12
Now we know today -- this was revealed
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Danas znamo -- otkrio je
01:14
by Thomas Reed,
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Tomas Rid
01:16
Ronald Reagan's former U.S. Air Force Secretary --
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bivši američki vojni sekretar Ronalda Regana --
01:18
this explosion was actually the result
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da je ova eksplozija u stvari bila rezultat
01:21
of a CIA sabotage operation,
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operacije i sabotaže koju je sprovela CIA
01:23
in which they had managed
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koja je uspela
01:25
to infiltrate the IT management systems
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da infiltrira IT menadžment sisteme
01:27
of that pipeline.
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tog cevovoda.
01:29
More recently, the U.S. government revealed
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U skorije vreme, američka vlada je otkrila
01:32
that in September 2008, more than 3 million people
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da je u septembru 2008. godine, više od 3 miliona ljudi
01:35
in the state of Espirito Santo in Brazil
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u državi Espirito Santo u Brazilu
01:38
were plunged into darkness,
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ostalo u mraku
01:40
victims of a blackmail operation from cyber pirates.
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kao žrtve ucenjivačke operacije sajber pirata.
01:45
Even more worrying for the Americans,
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Jos više zabrinjavajuće za Amerikance,
01:47
in December 2008 the holiest of holies,
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na Božić decembra 2008. godine,
01:50
the IT systems of CENTCOM,
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IT sisteme CENTCOM-a,
01:52
the central command
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centralne komande
01:54
managing the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan,
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koja upravlja ratovima u Iraku i Afganistanu,
01:57
may have been infiltrated by hackers
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su infiltirirali hakeri
01:59
who used these:
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koji su upotrebili:
02:02
plain but infected USB keys.
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najobičnije ali inficirane USB memorije.
02:04
And with these keys, they may have been able
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I tako su pomoću njih, bili u mogućnosti
02:06
to get inside CENTCOM's systems,
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da uđu unutar CENTCOM sistema,
02:08
to see and hear everything,
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da vide i čuju sve,
02:10
and maybe even infect some of them.
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i možda i inficiraju neke od njih.
02:12
As a result, the Americans take the threat very seriously.
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To je rezultiralo time da Amerikanci shvate ovo kao veoma ozbiljnu pretnju.
02:14
I'll quote General James Cartwright,
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Citiraću generala Džejmsa Kartrajta,
02:16
Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,
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potpredsednika Združenog generalštaba
02:18
who says in a report to Congress
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koji u izveštaju za Kongres kaže
02:20
that cyberattacks could be as powerful as
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da bi sajber napadi mogli da budu jednako moćni
02:23
weapons of mass destruction.
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kao i oružje za masovno uništenje.
02:26
Moreover, the Americans have decided
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Osim toga, Amerikanci su odlučili
02:28
to spend over 30 billion dollars
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da potroše više od 30 milijardi dolara
02:30
in the next five years
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u sledećih pet godina
02:32
to build up their cyberwar capabilities.
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da izgrade svoje kapacitete za sajber rat.
02:34
And across the world today, we see
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I danas, širom sveta, vidimo
02:36
a sort of cyber arms race,
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neku vrstu trke u sajber naoružanju,
02:39
with cyberwar units
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sa postrojenjima za sajber rat
02:41
built up by countries like North Korea
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koja se grade u zemljama kao sto su Severna Koreja
02:43
or even Iran.
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ili čak Iran.
02:44
Yet, what you'll never hear
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Pa ipak, ono sto nećete nikad čuti
02:46
from spokespeople
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od predstavnika
02:48
from the Pentagon or the French Department of Defence
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iz Pentagona ili francuskog Ministarstva za Odbranu
02:51
is that the question isn't really
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jeste da pitanje nije zapravo
02:53
who's the enemy, but actually
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ko je neprijatelj, nego
02:55
the very nature of cyber weapons.
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sama priroda sajber oružja.
02:58
And to understand why, we must look at how,
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I da bismo razumeli zašto, mi moramo da pogledamo kako su,
03:00
through the ages, military technologies
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kroz vekove, vojne tehnologije
03:03
have maintained or destroyed
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održavale ili uništavale
03:05
world peace.
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svetski mir.
03:08
For example,
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Na primer,
03:10
if we'd had TEDxParis
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da smo imali TEDxParis
03:11
350 years ago,
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pre 350 godina,
03:13
we would have talked about the military innovation of the day --
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mi bismo pričali o vojnoj inovaciji,
03:16
the massive Vauban-style fortifications --
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masivnom utvrđenju u stilu Vauban
03:19
and we could have predicted
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i predvideli bismo
03:21
a period of stability in the world or in Europe.
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period stabilnosti u svetu ili u Evropi,
03:24
which was indeed the case in Europe
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što je zaista i bio slučaj u Evropi
03:27
between 1650 and 1750.
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od 1650. do 1750.
03:29
Similarly, if we'd had this talk
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Isto tako, da smo imali ovaj govor
03:32
30 or 40 years ago, we would have seen
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pre 30 ili 40 godina, videli bismo
03:35
how the rise of nuclear weapons,
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kako porast nuklearnog oružja,
03:37
and the threat of mutually assured destruction they imply,
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i opasnost od sigurnog uzajamnog uništenja koje ono implicira,
03:41
prevents a direct fight between the two superpowers.
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sprečava direktnu borbu između dve super sile.
03:45
However, if we'd had this talk 60 years ago,
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Pa ipak, da smo imali ovaj govor pre 60 godina,
03:47
we would have seen how the emergence
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videli bismo kako pojava
03:50
of new aircraft and tank technologies,
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novih tehnologija u izradi aviona i tenkova,
03:53
which give the advantage to the attacker,
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koje daju prednost napadaču,
03:56
make the Blitzkrieg doctrine very credible
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čini Blickrigovu doktrinu veoma verodostojnom
03:59
and thus create the possibility of war in Europe.
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i tako stvara mogućnost rata u Evropi.
04:02
So military technologies
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Dakle vojne tehnologije
04:04
can influence the course of the world,
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mogu da utiču na svetski tok
04:06
can make or break world peace --
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mogu da stvore ili unište svetski mir --
04:08
and there lies the issue with cyber weapons.
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i tu leži problematika sajber oružja.
04:10
The first issue:
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Prvi problem:
04:12
Imagine a potential enemy announcing
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Zamislite potencijalnog neprijatelja kako izjavljuje
04:15
they're building a cyberwar unit,
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da gradi postrojenje za sajber rat
04:17
but only for their country's defense.
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ali samo zbog odbrane svoje zemlje.
04:19
Okay, but what distinguishes it
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U redu, ali šta je to što ga razlikuje
04:22
from an offensive unit?
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od postrojenja za napad?
04:24
It gets even more complicated
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Postaje još komplikovanije
04:26
when the doctrines of use become ambiguous.
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kada doktrine upotrebe postaju dvosmislene.
04:30
Just 3 years ago, both the U.S. and France
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Pre tri godine i SAD i Francuska
04:34
were saying they were investing militarily in cyberspace,
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su izjavile da vrše vojne investicije u sajber prostoru,
04:38
strictly to defend their IT systems.
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strogo da bi odbranile svoje IT sisteme.
04:41
But today both countries say
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Ali danas obe zemlje kažu
04:44
the best defense is to attack.
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da je napad najbolja odbrana.
04:46
And so, they're joining China,
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I tako se one pridružuju Kini,
04:48
whose doctrine of use for 15 years has been
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čiji je princip delovanja već 15 godina bio
04:52
both defensive and offensive.
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i odbrambeni i napadački.
04:55
The second issue:
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Drugi problem:
04:57
Your country could be under cyberattack
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Vaša zemlja bi mogla biti pod sajber napadom
05:01
with entire regions plunged into total darkness,
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sa celim regijama u totalnom mraku
05:04
and you may not even know
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a vi ne biste čak ni znali
05:06
who's attacking you.
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ko vas napada.
05:08
Cyber weapons have this peculiar feature:
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Sajber oružje ima to čudno svojstvo:
05:10
they can be used
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ono može biti upotrebljeno
05:12
without leaving traces.
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a da ne ostavi nikakav trag.
05:13
This gives a tremendous advantage to the attacker,
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To daje neverovatnu prednost napadaču,
05:15
because the defender
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zato što onaj koji se brani
05:17
doesn't know who to fight back against.
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ne zna protiv koga se bori.
05:19
And if the defender retaliates against the wrong adversary,
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A ako se onaj koji se brani osveti pogrešnom protivniku,
05:21
they risk making one more enemy
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rizikuje da stvori još jednog neprijatelja
05:24
and ending up diplomatically isolated.
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i da padne u diplomatsku izolaciju.
05:26
This issue isn't just theoretical.
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Ovaj problem nije samo teorijski.
05:28
In May 2007, Estonia was the victim of cyberattacks,
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U maju 2007.godine, Estonija je bila žrtva sajber napada,
05:30
that damaged its communication
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koji su oštetili njenu komunikaciju
05:33
and banking systems.
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i bankarske sisteme.
05:35
Estonia accused Russia.
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Estonija je optužila Rusiju.
05:37
But NATO, though it defends Estonia,
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Ali je NATO, iako brani Estoniju,
05:39
reacted very prudently. Why?
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reagovao vrlo promišljeno. Zašto?
05:41
Because NATO couldn't be 100% sure
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Zato što NATO nije mogao da bude 100% siguran
05:43
that the Kremlin was indeed behind these attacks.
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da je Kremlj zaista iza ovih napada.
05:48
So to sum up, on the one hand,
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Dakle da rezimiramo, sa jedne strane,
05:51
when a possible enemy announces
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kada mogući neprijatelj najavi
05:53
they're building a cyberwar unit,
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da gradi postrojenje za sajber rat,
05:55
you don't know whether it's for attack
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vi ne znate da li je to za napad
05:57
or defense.
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ili za odbranu.
05:58
On the other hand,
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Sa druge strane,
05:59
we know that these weapons give an advantage to attacking.
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mi znamo da ovo oružje daje prednost napadaču.
06:03
In a major article published in 1978,
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U važnom članku objavljenom 1978.,
06:06
Professor Robert Jervis of Columbia University in New York
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profesor Robert Džervis sa Kolumbijskog univerziteta u Njujorku
06:08
described a model to understand
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opisao je model koji može da pomogne pri razumevanju
06:10
how conflicts could arise.
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načina nastajanja konflikta.
06:12
In this context,
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U ovom kontekstu,
06:15
when you don't know if the potential enemy
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kada vi ne znate da li se potencijalni neprijatelj
06:17
is preparing for defense or attack,
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sprema za odbranu ili napad
06:20
and if the weapons give an advantage to attacking,
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i da li oružje daje prednost napadaču,
06:22
then this environment is
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tada će se u ovom okruženju
06:24
most likely to spark a conflict.
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najverovatnije razviti konflikt.
06:28
This is the environment that's being created
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Ovakvo okruženje stvara
06:30
by cyber weapons today,
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sajber oružje danas,
06:32
and historically it was the environment in Europe
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a istorijski gledano to je bilo okruženje u Evropi
06:35
at the onset of World War I.
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na početku Prvog svetskog rata.
06:39
So cyber weapons
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Dakle sajber oružje je
06:41
are dangerous by nature,
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opasno po prirodi,
06:43
but in addition, they're emerging
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ali se dodatno pojavljuje
06:46
in a much more unstable environment.
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u mnogo nestabilnijem okruženju.
06:48
If you remember the Cold War,
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Ako se sećate Hladnog rata,
06:50
it was a very hard game,
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to je bila jako teška igra,
06:52
but a stable one played only by two players,
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ali stabilna, koju je igralo samo dva igrača,
06:54
which allowed for some coordination between the two superpowers.
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koja su dozvoljavala neku koordinaciju između dve super moći.
06:57
Today we're moving to a multipolar world
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Danas živimo u multipolarnom svetu
07:02
in which coordination is much more complicated,
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u kojem je koordinacija mnogo komplikovanija,
07:03
as we have seen at Copenhagen.
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kao što smo to videli u Kopenhagenu.
07:06
And this coordination may become even trickier
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I ova koordinacija može da postane još zahtevnija
07:09
with the introduction of cyber weapons.
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sa uvođenjem sajber oružja.
07:12
Why? Because no nation
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Zašto? Zato što nijedna nacija
07:14
knows for sure whether its neighbor
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ne zna za sigurno da li će je njen komšija
07:17
is about to attack.
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napasti.
07:19
So nations may live under the threat
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Tako da države mogu da žive pod pretnjom
07:21
of what Nobel Prize winner Thomas Schelling
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onoga što je dobitnik Nobelove nagrade Tomas Šeling
07:24
called the "reciprocal fear of surprise attack,"
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nazvao "recipročnim strahom od iznenadnog napada"
07:26
as I don't know if my neighbor
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jer ja ne znam da li će me moj komšija
07:28
is about to attack me or not --
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napasti ili ne --
07:30
I may never know --
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možda nikada necu saznati --
07:32
so I might take the upper hand
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zato ću ga možda preduhitriti
07:34
and attack first.
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i napasti prvi.
07:37
Just last week,
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Prošle nedelje,
07:39
in a New York Times article dated January 26, 2010,
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u članku u Njujork Tajmsu od 26. januara 2010. godine.
07:43
it was revealed for the first time that
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po prvi put je otkriveno
07:45
officials at the National Security Agency
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da su zvaničnici NASA-e
07:48
were considering the possibility of preemptive attacks
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razmatrali mogućnosti preventivnih napada
07:52
in cases where the U.S. was about
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u slučajevima kada bi SAD-u pretili
07:55
to be cyberattacked.
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sajber napadi.
07:58
And these preemptive attacks
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I ovi preventivni napadi
08:00
might not just remain
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možda ne bi ostali samo
08:01
in cyberspace.
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u sajber prostoru.
08:05
In May 2009, General Kevin Chilton,
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U maju 2009. godine, general Kevin Čilton,
08:10
commander of the U.S. nuclear forces,
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zapovednik američkih nuklearnih snaga,
08:13
stated that in the event of cyberattacks against the U.S.,
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izjavio je da bi u slučaju sajber napada protiv SAD-a
08:18
all options would be on the table.
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sve opcije bile u igri.
08:21
Cyber weapons do not replace
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Sajber oružje ne zamenjuje
08:23
conventional or nuclear weapons --
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konvencionalno ili nuklearno oružje
08:25
they just add a new layer to the existing system of terror.
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ono samo dodaje novi sloj već postojećem sistemu terora.
08:30
But in doing so, they also add their own risk
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Ali se pritom dodaje i rizik
08:33
of triggering a conflict --
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od pokretanja konflikta --
08:35
as we've just seen, a very important risk --
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kao što smo upravo videli, veoma važan rizik,
08:37
and a risk we may have to confront
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i rizik sa kojim ćemo morati da se suočimo
08:39
with a collective security solution
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sa zajedničkim rešenjem o bezbednosti
08:42
which includes all of us:
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koje uključuje sve nas:
08:44
European allies, NATO members,
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evropske saveznike, članove NATO-a,
08:46
our American friends and allies,
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američke prijatelje i saveznike,
08:48
our other Western allies,
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druge zapadne saveznike
08:50
and maybe, by forcing their hand a little,
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i možda , uz malo prisile
08:52
our Russian and Chinese partners.
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naše ruske i kineske partnere.
08:55
The information technologies
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Informativne tehnologije
08:57
Joël de Rosnay was talking about,
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o kojima priča Joël de Rosnay,
08:59
which were historically born from military research,
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koje su rođene tokom istorije iz vojnih istraživanja
09:01
are today on the verge of developing
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danas su na ivici toga da razviju
09:03
an offensive capability of destruction,
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napadačke kapacitete destrukcije
09:06
which could tomorrow, if we're not careful,
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koji bi sutra, ako nismo pažljivi,
09:10
completely destroy world peace.
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mogli da u potpunosti unište svetski mir.
09:13
Thank you.
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Hvala.
09:15
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Guy-Philippe Goldstein - AuthorGuy-Philippe Goldstein is the author of Babel Minute Zero, a novel that examines the reality of cyberwar in our current geopolitical topography.
Why you should listen
By day, Guy-Philippe Goldstein is a management consultant. At night, he writes gripping political thrillers treating of cyberwar. He's a graduate of France’s prestigious Hautes Études Commerciales, and has an MBA from Northwestern University. Babel Minute Zero is his first novel.
Guy-Philippe Goldstein | Speaker | TED.com