TEDSalon London 2010
Noreena Hertz: How to use experts -- and when not to
Norina Herc: Kako koristiti eksperte -- i kada to ne činiti
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Mi svakodnevno donosimo važne odluke -- i često se oslanjamo na eksperte u odlučivanju. Ali, kaže ekonomista Norina Herc, previše oslanjanja na eksperte može biti ograničavajuće i čak opasno. Ona nas poziva da počnemo da demokratizujemo ekspertizu -- ne samo da slušamo ''hirurge i izvršne menadžere, već i prodavce."
Noreena Hertz - Economist
Noreena Hertz looks at global culture -- financial and otherwise -- using an approach that combines traditional economic analysis with foreign policy trends, psychology, behavioural economics, anthropology, history and sociology. Full bio
Noreena Hertz looks at global culture -- financial and otherwise -- using an approach that combines traditional economic analysis with foreign policy trends, psychology, behavioural economics, anthropology, history and sociology. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
It's Monday morning.
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Ponedeljak je ujutru.
00:18
In Washington,
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U Vašingtonu,
00:20
the president of the United States
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predsednik SAD-a
00:22
is sitting in the Oval Office,
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sedi u ovalnom kabinetu,
00:24
assessing whether or not
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i razmatra da li da
00:26
to strike Al Qaeda
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napadne Al Kaidu
00:28
in Yemen.
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u Jemenu.
00:30
At Number 10 Downing Street,
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U broju 10 Dauning ulice,
00:32
David Cameron is trying to work out
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Dejvid Kameron pokušava da odluči
00:35
whether to cut more public sector jobs
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da li da smanji broj poslova u javnom sektoru
00:38
in order to stave off a double-dip recession.
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da bi odložio recesiju koja ima kratke intrevale ekonomskog oporavka.
00:41
In Madrid, Maria Gonzalez
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U Madridu, Marija Gonzales
00:44
is standing at the door,
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stoji na vratima,
00:46
listening to her baby crying and crying,
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i sluša svoju bebu kako plače i plače.
00:49
trying to work out whether she should let it cry
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i pokušava da odluči da li da pusti bebu da plače
00:52
until it falls asleep
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dok se ne uspava
00:54
or pick it up and hold it.
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ili da je uzme u ruke.
00:57
And I am sitting by my father's bedside in hospital,
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I ja sedim pored kreveta svoga oca u bolnici,
01:01
trying to work out
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i pokušavam da odlučim
01:03
whether I should let him drink
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da li da mu dam da popije
01:05
the one-and-a-half-liter bottle of water
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litru i po vode iz flaše
01:08
that his doctors just came in and said,
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jer su doktori upravo ušli i rekli,
01:11
"You must make him drink today," --
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"Morate ga naterati da ovo popije danas," --
01:13
my father's been nil by mouth for a week --
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a moj otac već nedelju dana ne sme ništa da uzima oralno --
01:16
or whether, by giving him this bottle,
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i da li ću ga dajući mu tu flašu
01:20
I might actually kill him.
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možda ubiti.
01:23
We face momentous decisions
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Suočavamo sa momentalnim odlukama
01:26
with important consequences
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koje nose ozbiljne posledice
01:28
throughout our lives,
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čitavog svog života.
01:30
and we have strategies for dealing with these decisions.
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I imamo strategije kako bi izašli na kraj sa takvim odlukama.
01:33
We talk things over with our friends,
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Savetujemo se sa prijateljima,
01:36
we scour the Internet,
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pretražujemo Internet,
01:39
we search through books.
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i tražimo po knjigama.
01:42
But still,
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Ali ipak
01:44
even in this age
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čak i u ovo doba
01:46
of Google and TripAdvisor
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Gugla i Trip Advajzora
01:48
and Amazon Recommends,
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i Amazon preporuka,
01:51
it's still experts
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još uvek su to eksperti
01:53
that we rely upon most --
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na koje se najviše oslanjamo --
01:56
especially when the stakes are high
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pogotovu kada je ulog veliki
01:58
and the decision really matters.
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i kada su odluke zaista bitne.
02:01
Because in a world of data deluge
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Zato što u svetu pretrpanom informacijama
02:03
and extreme complexity,
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i neverovatno komplikovanom svetu
02:06
we believe that experts
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mi verujemo da eksperti
02:08
are more able to process information than we can --
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mogu bolje da prerade informacije od nas --
02:11
that they are able to come to better conclusions
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da su u stanju da dođu do boljih zaključaka
02:14
than we could come to on our own.
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nego što bi mi sami to mogli.
02:17
And in an age
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I u današnje vreme,
02:19
that is sometimes nowadays frightening
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koje je ponekad zastrašujuće
02:22
or confusing,
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ili zbunjujuće,
02:24
we feel reassured
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mi se osećamo sigurnije
02:26
by the almost parental-like authority
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pored gotovo roditeljskog autoriteta
02:29
of experts
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eksperata
02:31
who tell us so clearly what it is
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koji nam tako jasno kažu šta je to
02:34
we can and cannot do.
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što možemo i ne možemo da uradimo.
02:38
But I believe
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Ali ja verujem
02:40
that this is a big problem,
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da je to veliki problem,
02:42
a problem with potentially dangerous consequences
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problem koji nosi potencijlalno opasne posledice
02:46
for us as a society,
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po nas kao društvo,
02:49
as a culture
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po našu kulturu
02:51
and as individuals.
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i nas kao pojedince.
02:53
It's not that experts
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Ne kažem da eksperti
02:55
have not massively contributed to the world --
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nisu masivno doprineli svetu --
02:57
of course they have.
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naravno da jesu.
02:59
The problem lies with us:
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Problem leži u nama;
03:02
we've become addicted to experts.
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mi smo postali zavisni od ekspereta.
03:05
We've become addicted to their certainty,
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Postali smo zavisni od njihove tačnosti,
03:08
their assuredness,
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uverenosti,
03:10
their definitiveness,
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definitivnosti,
03:12
and in the process,
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i u tom procesu
03:14
we have ceded our responsibility,
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smo ustupili svoju odgovornost,
03:16
substituting our intellect
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zamenjujući svoj intelekt
03:18
and our intelligence
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i svoju inteligenciju
03:21
for their supposed words of wisdom.
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za njihove navodno mudre reči.
03:24
We've surrendered our power,
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Predali smo svoju moć,
03:27
trading off our discomfort
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menjajući nelagodnost
03:29
with uncertainty
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koja ide uz neizvesnost
03:31
for the illusion of certainty
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za iluziju izvesnosti
03:33
that they provide.
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koju nam oni daju.
03:36
This is no exaggeration.
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Ovo nije preterivanje.
03:39
In a recent experiment,
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U nedavnom eksperimentu,
03:41
a group of adults
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grupi odraslih ljudi
03:43
had their brains scanned in an MRI machine
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su skenirani mozgovi na tomografiji magnetne rezonance,
03:46
as they were listening to experts speak.
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dok su slušali eksperte kako govore.
03:50
The results were quite extraordinary.
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Rezultati su bili neverovatni.
03:53
As they listened to the experts' voices,
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Dok su slušali glasove eksperata,
03:56
the independent decision-making parts of their brains
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delovi mozga za nezavisno odlučivanje
04:01
switched off.
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su se isključili.
04:03
It literally flat-lined.
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Bukvalno je tu bila ravna crta.
04:06
And they listened to whatever the experts said
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I oni su slušali šta im eksperti kažu
04:08
and took their advice, however right or wrong.
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i njihove savete, bez obzira da li bili tačni ili netačni.
04:12
But experts do get things wrong.
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Ali eksperti umeju da pogreše.
04:16
Did you know that studies show
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Da li ste znali da studije pokazuju
04:19
that doctors misdiagnose
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da doktori daju pogrešnu dijagnozu
04:22
four times out of 10?
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4 od 10 puta?
04:25
Did you know
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Da li ste znali
04:27
that if you file your tax returns yourself,
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da ako sami podnosite deklaraciju za povraćaj poreza
04:30
you're statistically more likely
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statistički imate veću verovatnoću da
04:32
to be filing them correctly
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je popunite tačno
04:34
than if you get a tax adviser
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nego ako imate poreskog svetnika
04:36
to do it for you?
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koji će to raditi umesto vas?
04:38
And then there's, of course, the example
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I naravno tu je i primer
04:40
that we're all too aware of:
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koga smo svi previše svesni
04:42
financial experts
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finansijskih eksperata
04:44
getting it so wrong
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koji su toliko pogrešili
04:46
that we're living through the worst recession
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da sada živimo u najgoroj recesiji
04:48
since the 1930s.
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od 1930.
04:52
For the sake of our health,
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Za dobrobit našeg zdravlja,
04:54
our wealth
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našeg bogatstva
04:56
and our collective security,
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i naše kolektivne sigurnosti,
04:58
it's imperative that we keep
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od velike je važnosti da ostavimo
05:01
the independent decision-making parts of our brains
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delove naših mozgova zadužene za nezavisno donošenje odluka
05:05
switched on.
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uključenim.
05:07
And I'm saying this as an economist
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I ovo govorim kao ekonomista
05:09
who, over the past few years,
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koji je u poslednjih nekoliko godina
05:11
has focused my research
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usmerio svoje istraživanje na
05:13
on what it is we think
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na ono o čemu razmišljamo
05:15
and who it is we trust and why,
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i kome verujemo i zašto.
05:18
but also --
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Ali takođe --
05:20
and I'm aware of the irony here --
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i svesna sam ironije --
05:22
as an expert myself,
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pošto sam i sama ekspert,
05:25
as a professor,
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kao profesor,
05:27
as somebody who advises prime ministers,
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kao neko ko savetuje premijere,
05:30
heads of big companies,
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vođe velikih kompanija,
05:32
international organizations,
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međunarodne organizacije,
05:34
but an expert who believes
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ali ekspert koji veruje
05:36
that the role of experts needs to change,
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da uloga eksperata mora da se promeni,
05:39
that we need to become more open-minded,
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da moramo biti otvorenog uma,
05:42
more democratic
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više demokratični,
05:44
and be more open
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i biti otvoreniji
05:46
to people rebelling against
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prema ljudima koji se protive
05:48
our points of view.
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našem razmišljanju.
05:51
So in order to help you understand
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Da bih vam pomogla da shvatite
05:54
where I'm coming from,
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odakle dolazim,
05:56
let me bring you into my world,
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dozvolite mi da vas dovedem u svoj svet,
05:59
the world of experts.
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svet eksperata.
06:01
Now there are, of course, exceptions,
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Naravno, postoje izuzeci,
06:05
wonderful, civilization-enhancing exceptions.
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divni izuzeci koji doprinose civilizaciji.
06:11
But what my research has shown me
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Ali ono što mi je moje istraživanje pokazalo
06:14
is that experts tend on the whole
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je da eksperti imaju običaj da
06:17
to form very rigid camps,
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formiraju veoma stroge kampove,
06:20
that within these camps,
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i da u tim kampovima,
06:22
a dominant perspective emerges
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nastane jedna dominantna perspektiva
06:25
that often silences opposition,
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koja često ućutka opoziciju,
06:28
that experts move with the prevailing winds,
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da eksperti misle kao dominantna većina,
06:31
often hero-worshipping
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često obožavajući kao heroje
06:34
their own gurus.
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svoje gurue.
06:36
Alan Greenspan's proclamations
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Alan Grinspenove tvrdnje
06:38
that the years of economic growth
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da će se ekonomski razvoj
06:41
would go on and on,
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nastaviti dalje i dalje,
06:44
not challenged by his peers,
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nisu bile kritikovane od strane njegovih kolega,
06:47
until after the crisis, of course.
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bar ne pre nastupanja krize naravno.
06:51
You see,
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Vidite,
06:54
we also learn
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takođe učimo
06:56
that experts are located,
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da su eksperti locirani,
06:58
are governed,
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vođeni,
07:00
by the social and cultural norms
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socijalnim i kulturološkim normama
07:03
of their times --
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vremena u kome žive --
07:05
whether it be the doctors
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bili to doktori
07:07
in Victorian England, say,
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u viktorijanskoj Engleskoj,
07:09
who sent women to asylums
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koji su slali žene u azil
07:12
for expressing sexual desire,
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zato što su pokazivale seksualnu želju,
07:15
or the psychiatrists in the United States
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ili psihijatri u SAD-u
07:18
who, up until 1973,
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koji su do 1973,
07:21
were still categorizing homosexuality
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još uvek kategorizovali homoseksualnost
07:25
as a mental illness.
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kao mentalnu bolest.
07:27
And what all this means
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I ono što sve ovo znači
07:29
is that paradigms
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jeste da se paradigme
07:31
take far too long to shift,
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jako sporo menjaju,
07:34
that complexity and nuance are ignored
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da se kompleksnost i nijanse ignorišu,
07:38
and also that money talks --
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i takođe da novac okreće gde burgija neće --
07:41
because we've all seen the evidence
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jer smo svi videli dokaze o
07:44
of pharmaceutical companies
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farmaceutskim kompanijama koje
07:46
funding studies of drugs
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finansiraju istraživanje o lekovima
07:49
that conveniently leave out
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i nekako ostavljaju prostor
07:51
their worst side effects,
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za njihove najgore nuspojave
07:54
or studies funded by food companies
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ili istraživanja koja finansiraju prehrambene kompanije
07:57
of their new products,
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o njihovim novim proizvodima
08:00
massively exaggerating the health benefits
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masovno preterivajući o dobrim uticajima na zdravlje
08:03
of the products they're about to bring by market.
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proizvoda koje će izneti na tržište.
08:06
The study showed that food companies exaggerated
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Istraživanje je pokazalo da prehrambene kompanije preuveličaju
08:08
typically seven times more
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obično sedam puta više
08:11
than an independent study.
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od nezavisnog istraživanja.
08:15
And we've also got to be aware
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Mi moramo takođe biti svesni da
08:17
that experts, of course,
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eksperti, naravno,
08:19
also make mistakes.
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takođe prave greške.
08:21
They make mistakes every single day --
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Oni prave greške svakoga dana --
08:24
mistakes born out of carelessness.
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greške zbog nemarnosti.
08:27
A recent study in the Archives of Surgery
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Skorašnje istraživanje hirurških arhiva
08:30
reported surgeons
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je pokazalo da hirurzi
08:32
removing healthy ovaries,
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uklanjaju zdrave jajnike,
08:35
operating on the wrong side of the brain,
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operišu pogrešne strane mozga,
08:38
carrying out procedures on the wrong hand,
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vrše operacije na pogrešnoj šaci,
08:41
elbow, eye, foot,
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laktu, oku, stopalu,
08:44
and also mistakes born out of thinking errors.
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i takođe prave greške u mišljenju.
08:47
A common thinking error
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Učestale greške u mišljenju
08:49
of radiologists, for example --
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radiologa na primer --
08:52
when they look at CT scans --
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dok gledaju snimke kompjuterske tomografije --
08:55
is that they're overly influenced
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oni su pod utiskom
08:57
by whatever it is
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onoga što je
08:59
that the referring physician has said
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lekar opšte prakse
09:01
that he suspects
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rekao da
09:03
the patient's problem to be.
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može biti pacijentov problem.
09:06
So if a radiologist
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Tako da ako radiolog
09:08
is looking at the scan
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gleda snimak
09:10
of a patient with suspected pneumonia, say,
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pacijenta za koga se sumnja da ima upalu pluća,
09:13
what happens is that,
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dešava se da
09:15
if they see evidence
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ako oni vide dokaze
09:17
of pneumonia on the scan,
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upale pluća na snimku,
09:20
they literally stop looking at it --
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oni bukvalno više ne gledaju snimak --
09:23
thereby missing the tumor
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i na taj način ne vide tumor
09:25
sitting three inches below
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koji se nalazi 7,5 cantimetara niže
09:27
on the patient's lungs.
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na plućima pacijenta.
09:31
I've shared with you so far
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Dala sam vam za sada
09:34
some insights into the world of experts.
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neke uvide u svet eksperata.
09:37
These are, of course,
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Ovo naravno nije sve
09:39
not the only insights I could share,
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što mogu da podelim sa vama,
09:41
but I hope they give you a clear sense at least
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ali se nadam da vam daju sliku
09:44
of why we need to stop kowtowing to them,
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o tome zašto moramo da prestanemo da im se klanjamo,
09:47
why we need to rebel
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zašto moramo da se pobunimo,
09:49
and why we need to switch
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i zašto moramo da uključimo
09:51
our independent decision-making capabilities on.
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našu sposobnost za nezavisno odlučivanje.
09:55
But how can we do this?
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Ali kako ćemo to izvesti?
09:58
Well for the sake of time,
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Zbog malo vremena
10:01
I want to focus on just three strategies.
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želim da se fokusiram na samo tri strategije.
10:06
First, we've got to be ready and willing
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Prvo, moramo biti spremni i voljni
10:08
to take experts on
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da ne uzimamo eksperte zdravo za gotovo
10:11
and dispense with this notion of them
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i da ne razmišljamo o njima
10:14
as modern-day apostles.
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kao o apostolima modernog doba.
10:16
This doesn't mean having to get a Ph.D.
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To ne znači da moramo da doktoriramo
10:19
in every single subject,
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na svaku moguću temu,
10:21
you'll be relieved to hear.
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laknuće vam kad to čujete.
10:23
But it does mean persisting
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Ali to znači da istrajemo
10:26
in the face of their inevitable annoyance
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kada smo suočeni sa njihovom neizbežnom iziritiranošću
10:29
when, for example,
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kada, na primer,
10:31
we want them to explain things to us
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želimo da objasnimo sebi neke stvari
10:33
in language that we can actually understand.
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jezikom koji mi zapravo možemo da razumemo.
10:38
Why was it that, when I had an operation,
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Zašto je, kada sam imala operaciju
10:41
my doctor said to me,
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moj doktor meni rekao,
10:43
"Beware, Ms. Hertz,
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"Pazite se, gospođice Herc,
10:45
of hyperpyrexia,"
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hiperpireksije,"
10:47
when he could have just as easily said,
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kada je mogao jednostavno da mi kaže
10:49
"Watch out for a high fever."
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pazite se visoke temperature?
10:53
You see, being ready to take experts on
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Vidite, biti spreman da razmatrate mišljenje eksperata
10:57
is about also being willing
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znači biti voljan
10:59
to dig behind their graphs,
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da gledate između njihovih grafikona,
11:02
their equations, their forecasts,
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njihovih jednačina, njihovih prognoza,
11:04
their prophecies,
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njihovih proročanstava,
11:06
and being armed with the questions to do that --
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i biti naoružan pitanjima kako da to učinimo --
11:09
questions like:
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pitanjima kao što su:
11:11
What are the assumptions that underpin this?
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Koje su pretpostavke koje stoje iza ovoga?
11:14
What is the evidence upon which this is based?
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Koji su dokazi na kojima je ovo zasnovano?
11:17
What has your investigation focused on?
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Na čemu se fokusira vaše istraživanje?
11:21
And what has it ignored?
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I šta je ono ignorislao?
11:24
It recently came out
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Skoro je objavljeno
11:26
that experts trialing drugs
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da eksperti koji testiraju lekove
11:29
before they come to market
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pre nego što izađu na tržište
11:31
typically trial drugs
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obično testiraju lekove
11:34
first, primarily on male animals
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prvo prevashodno na mužjacima životinja
11:38
and then, primarily on men.
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a zatim prevashodno na muškarcima.
11:41
It seems that they've somehow overlooked the fact
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Izgleda da su nekako prevideli činjenicu
11:44
that over half the world's population are women.
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da preko polovine populacije čine žene.
11:49
And women have drawn the short medical straw
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I žene su izvukle deblji kraj
11:52
because it now turns out that many of these drugs
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jer se sada ispostavlja da mnogi od ovih lekova
11:55
don't work nearly as well on women
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ne deluju ni približno dobro na žene
11:58
as they do on men --
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kao na muškarce --
12:00
and the drugs that do work well work so well
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i lekovi koji deluju, deluju tako dobro
12:03
that they're actively harmful for women to take.
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da su aktivno štetni po žene.
12:06
Being a rebel is about recognizing
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Biti buntovnik znači prepoznati
12:09
that experts' assumptions
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da pretpostavke eksperata
12:12
and their methodologies
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i njihova metodologija
12:14
can easily be flawed.
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može lako da bude pogrešna.
12:17
Second,
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Drugo,
12:19
we need to create the space
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moramo ostaviti prostora
12:22
for what I call "managed dissent."
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za ono što ja nazivam konstruktivnim neslaganjem.
12:25
If we are to shift paradigms,
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Ako ćemo menjati obrazce,
12:27
if we are to make breakthroughs,
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ako ćemo probijati granice,
12:29
if we are to destroy myths,
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ako ćemo rušiti mitove,
12:32
we need to create an environment
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moramo stvoriti sredinu
12:34
in which expert ideas are battling it out,
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u kojoj će ideje eksperata morati da se bore za cilj,
12:37
in which we're bringing in
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u kojoj ćemo uneti
12:39
new, diverse, discordant, heretical views
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nove, različite, neslagajuće, heretičke stavove
12:42
into the discussion,
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u diskusiju,
12:44
fearlessly,
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neustrašivo,
12:46
in the knowledge that progress comes about,
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sa znanjem da napredak proizilazi,
12:49
not only from the creation of ideas,
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ne samo iz stvaranja ideja
12:53
but also from their destruction --
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već i iz njihovog rušenja --
12:56
and also from the knowledge
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i iz znanja
12:59
that, by surrounding ourselves
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da tako što ćemo sebe okružiti
13:01
by divergent, discordant,
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divergentnim, neslagajućim
13:04
heretical views.
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heretičkim pogledima na stvari
13:06
All the research now shows us
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sva istraživanja sada pokazuju
13:08
that this actually makes us smarter.
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da nas to zapravo čini pametnijima.
13:13
Encouraging dissent is a rebellious notion
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Ohrabrivanje neslaganja je buntovnička ideja
13:16
because it goes against our very instincts,
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jer se suprotstavlja svakom našem instinktu
13:19
which are to surround ourselves
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da se okružimo
13:22
with opinions and advice
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mišljenjima i savetima
13:24
that we already believe
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za koje već verujemo
13:27
or want to be true.
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i za koje želimo da budu tačni.
13:29
And that's why I talk about the need
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I zato govorim o potrebi
13:31
to actively manage dissent.
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za aktivnim konstruktivnim neslaganjem.
13:35
Google CEO Eric Schmidt
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Izvršni menadžer Gugla Erik Šmit
13:37
is a practical practitioner
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praktično primenjuje
13:40
of this philosophy.
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ovu filozofiju.
13:42
In meetings, he looks out for the person in the room --
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Na sastancima, on traži osobu u prostoriji --
13:45
arms crossed, looking a bit bemused --
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sa prekrštenim rukama i koja izgleda odsutno --
13:48
and draws them into the discussion,
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i uvlači ga u diskusiju,
13:51
trying to see if they indeed are
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da vidi da li je on zaista
13:54
the person with a different opinion,
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osoba drugačijeg mišljenja,
13:57
so that they have dissent within the room.
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da bi u prostoriji imali nekoga ko se ne slaže.
14:00
Managing dissent
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Konstruktivno neslaganje
14:02
is about recognizing the value
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je o prepoznavanju vrednosti
14:05
of disagreement, discord
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neslaganja, neusaglašenosti
14:08
and difference.
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i različitosti.
14:10
But we need to go even further.
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Ali moramo ići još dalje.
14:13
We need to fundamentally redefine
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Moramo iz korena redefinisati
14:16
who it is that experts are.
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ko su to eskperti.
14:20
The conventional notion
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Konvencionalno stanovište
14:22
is that experts are people
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kaže da su eksperti ljudi
14:25
with advanced degrees,
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sa visokim stepenima,
14:27
fancy titles, diplomas,
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zvučnim titulama, diplomama,
14:30
best-selling books --
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najprodavanijim knjigama --
14:32
high-status individuals.
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individue sa visokim statusom.
14:34
But just imagine
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Ali samo zamislite
14:36
if we were to junk
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ako odbacimo
14:38
this notion of expertise
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ovo stanovište o ekpertizi
14:42
as some sort of elite cadre
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kao nekom elitnom klišeu
14:46
and instead embrace the notion
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i umesto toga prihvatimo stanovište
14:49
of democratized expertise --
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demokratizovane ekspertize --
14:52
whereby expertise was not just the preserve
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gde eskpertiza nije samo vezana za
14:55
of surgeons and CEO's,
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hirurge i izvšne manadžere
14:57
but also shop-girls -- yeah.
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već i za prodavačice -- da.
15:01
Best Buy,
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Best Buy,
15:03
the consumer electronics company,
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komapanija za električne aparate,
15:05
gets all its employees --
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zadužuje sve svoje zaposlene --
15:08
the cleaners, the shop assistants,
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čistače, prodavce,
15:10
the people in the back office,
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ljude iz magacina,
15:13
not just its forecasting team --
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ne samo svoj tim zadužen za prognoze --
15:15
to place bets, yes bets,
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da daju procene, da procene,
15:18
on things like whether or not
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da li će se
15:20
a product is going to sell well before Christmas,
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proizvod dobro prodavati pre Božića,
15:23
on whether customers' new ideas
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o tome da li bi nove ideje mušterija
15:26
are going to be or should be taken on by the company,
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trebalo primeniti u kompaniji,
15:30
on whether a project
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i da li će se projekat
15:32
will come in on time.
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sprovesti na vreme.
15:34
By leveraging
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Poboljšavanjem
15:36
and by embracing
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i prihvatanjem
15:38
the expertise within the company,
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eskpertize unutar kompanije,
15:40
Best Buy was able to discover, for example,
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Best Buy je uspeo da otkrije, na primer,
15:43
that the store that it was going to open in China --
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da radnja koja je trebalo da se otvori u Kini --
15:47
its big, grand store --
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njihova velika, ogromna radnja --
15:49
was not going to open on time.
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neće moći da se otvori na vreme.
15:52
Because when it asked its staff,
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Zato što kada su pitali svoje osoblje
15:54
all its staff, to place their bets
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čitavo svoje osoblje, da daju procene
15:57
on whether they thought the store would open on time or not,
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da li oni misle da će se radnja otvoriti na vreme ili ne,
16:01
a group from the finance department
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grupa iz odseka za finansije
16:04
placed all their chips
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se kladila za sve pare
16:06
on that not happening.
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da se to neće dogoditi.
16:09
It turned out that they were aware,
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Ispostavilo se da su oni bili svesni,
16:11
as no one else within the company was,
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kao što niko drugi u kompaniji nije
16:14
of a technological blip
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tehnološkog iznenađenja
16:16
that neither the forecasting experts,
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koga ni eksperti procena,
16:18
nor the experts on the ground in China,
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ni ekspeti na terenu u Kini
16:21
were even aware of.
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nisu bili svesni.
16:25
The strategies
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Strategije
16:27
that I have discussed this evening --
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o kojima sam govorila večeras --
16:30
embracing dissent,
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prihvatanje neslaganja
16:32
taking experts on,
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suprotstavljenje eskpertima,
16:34
democratizing expertise,
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demokratizacija ekspertize,
16:36
rebellious strategies --
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buntovničke strategije,
16:39
are strategies that I think
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su strategije za koje ja mislim
16:41
would serve us all well to embrace
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da će nam biti od ogromne koristi
16:43
as we try to deal with the challenges
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dok pokušavamo da se borimo sa izazovima
16:46
of these very confusing, complex,
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ovih veoma zbunjujućih, komplikovanih
16:49
difficult times.
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teških vremena.
16:51
For if we keep
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Jer ako zadržimo
16:53
our independent decision-making part
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svoj deo mozga za nezavisno odlučivanje
16:55
of our brains switched on,
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uključenim
16:58
if we challenge experts, if we're skeptical,
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ako kritikujemo eksperte, ako smo skeptični,
17:01
if we devolve authority,
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ako prenesemo autoritet,
17:03
if we are rebellious,
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ako smo buntovnici,
17:05
but also
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ali takođe
17:07
if we become much more comfortable
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ako prihvatimo
17:09
with nuance,
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nijanse
17:11
uncertainty and doubt,
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neizvesnost i sumnju,
17:14
and if we allow our experts
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i ako dozvolimo svojim ekpsertima
17:17
to express themselves
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da se izraze
17:19
using those terms too,
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na isti takav način,
17:21
we will set ourselves up
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bićemo mnogo bolje
17:23
much better
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pripremljeni
17:25
for the challenges of the 21st century.
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za izazove 21 veka.
17:29
For now, more than ever,
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Jer sada, više nego ikada,
17:32
is not the time
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nije vreme
17:34
to be blindly following,
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da slepo pratimo,
17:36
blindly accepting,
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slepo prihvatamo,
17:38
blindly trusting.
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slepo verujemo.
17:41
Now is the time to face the world
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Sada je vreme da se suočimo sa svetom
17:44
with eyes wide open --
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širom otvorenih očiju --
17:47
yes, using experts
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da, koristimo eksperte
17:49
to help us figure things out, for sure --
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da nam pomognu da razumemo svari, naravno --
17:52
I don't want to completely do myself out of a job here --
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ne želim da sebe kompletno ostavim bez posla --
17:56
but being aware
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ali da budemo svesni
17:58
of their limitations
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njihovih ograničenja
18:01
and, of course, also our own.
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i naravno takođe i svojih.
18:05
Thank you.
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Hvala.
18:07
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Noreena Hertz - EconomistNoreena Hertz looks at global culture -- financial and otherwise -- using an approach that combines traditional economic analysis with foreign policy trends, psychology, behavioural economics, anthropology, history and sociology.
Why you should listen
For more than two decades, Noreena Hertz’s economic predictions have been accurate and ahead of the curve. In her recent book The Silent Takeover, Hertz predicted that unregulated markets and massive financial institutions would have serious global consequences while her 2005 book IOU: The Debt Threat predicted the 2008 financial crisis.
An influential economist on the international stage, Hertz also played an influential role in the development of (RED), an innovative commercial model to raise money for people with AIDS in Africa, having inspired Bono (co-founder of the project) with her writings.
Her work is considered to provide a much needed blueprint for rethinking economics and corporate strategy. She is the Duisenberg Professor of Globalization, Sustainability and Finance based at Duisenberg School of Finance, RSM, Erasmus University and University of Cambridge. She is also a Fellow of University College London.
Noreena Hertz | Speaker | TED.com