TEDSalon London 2010
Noreena Hertz: How to use experts -- and when not to
Noreena Hertz: Kako koristiti eksperte -- i kada ne
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Donosimo važne odluke svaki dan -- i mi se često pouzdamo u eksperte da nam pomognu odlučiti. Ali, govori ekonomistica Noreena Hertz, preveliko oslanjanje na eksperte može biti ograničavajuće ako ne i opasno. Ona nas poziva da započnemo demokratizirati ekspertizu -- da slušamo ne samo "kirurge i izvršne menadžere već i radnike u dućanu".
Noreena Hertz - Economist
Noreena Hertz looks at global culture -- financial and otherwise -- using an approach that combines traditional economic analysis with foreign policy trends, psychology, behavioural economics, anthropology, history and sociology. Full bio
Noreena Hertz looks at global culture -- financial and otherwise -- using an approach that combines traditional economic analysis with foreign policy trends, psychology, behavioural economics, anthropology, history and sociology. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
It's Monday morning.
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Ponedjeljak je ujutro.
00:18
In Washington,
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U Washingtonu,
00:20
the president of the United States
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predsjednik Sjedinjenih Država
00:22
is sitting in the Oval Office,
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sjedi u svom ovalnom uredu,
00:24
assessing whether or not
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procjenjuje hoće li ili ne
00:26
to strike Al Qaeda
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napasti Al Qaedu
00:28
in Yemen.
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u Jemenu.
00:30
At Number 10 Downing Street,
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Na broju 10 u Downing Street,
00:32
David Cameron is trying to work out
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David Cameron pokušava rješiti
00:35
whether to cut more public sector jobs
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hoće li smanjiti broj radnih mjesta u javnom sektoru
00:38
in order to stave off a double-dip recession.
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kako bi odbio ponovnu recesiju.
00:41
In Madrid, Maria Gonzalez
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U Madridu, Maria Gonzalez
00:44
is standing at the door,
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stoji na vratima,
00:46
listening to her baby crying and crying,
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slušajući kako njena beba plače i plače,
00:49
trying to work out whether she should let it cry
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pokušava shvatiti treba li ju pustiti da plače
00:52
until it falls asleep
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dok ne zaspe
00:54
or pick it up and hold it.
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ili je podići i držati u naručju.
00:57
And I am sitting by my father's bedside in hospital,
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A ja sjedim uz postelju svog oca u bolnici,
01:01
trying to work out
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pokušavajući odlučiti
01:03
whether I should let him drink
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trebam li ga pustiti da pije
01:05
the one-and-a-half-liter bottle of water
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bocu vode od jedne i pol litre
01:08
that his doctors just came in and said,
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koju je upravo preporučio njegov doktor,
01:11
"You must make him drink today," --
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"Morate ga natjerati da pije danas,"--
01:13
my father's been nil by mouth for a week --
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moj otac je na tašte već tjedan dana --
01:16
or whether, by giving him this bottle,
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ili ću, dajući mu njegovu bocu,
01:20
I might actually kill him.
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ga u stvari ubiti.
01:23
We face momentous decisions
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Suočavamo se s momentima odluke
01:26
with important consequences
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s važnim posljedicama
01:28
throughout our lives,
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cijeli život.
01:30
and we have strategies for dealing with these decisions.
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I imamo strategije kako se nositi s tim odlukama.
01:33
We talk things over with our friends,
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Razgovoramo o tome s našim prijateljima,
01:36
we scour the Internet,
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pretražujemo Internet,
01:39
we search through books.
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tražimo u knjigama.
01:42
But still,
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Ali opet,
01:44
even in this age
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čak i u ovo doba
01:46
of Google and TripAdvisor
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Google-a i TripAdvisor-a
01:48
and Amazon Recommends,
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i preporuka na Amazon-u,
01:51
it's still experts
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još su uvijek eksperti
01:53
that we rely upon most --
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oni u koje se pouzdamo najviše --
01:56
especially when the stakes are high
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posebno kada su ulozi veliki
01:58
and the decision really matters.
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a odluke su stvarno važne.
02:01
Because in a world of data deluge
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Zbog toga što je svijet podataka preplavljen
02:03
and extreme complexity,
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i ekstremno složen,
02:06
we believe that experts
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vjerujemo kako su eksperti
02:08
are more able to process information than we can --
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sposobniji procesuirati informacije nego mi --
02:11
that they are able to come to better conclusions
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kako su oni sposobni doći do boljih zaključaka
02:14
than we could come to on our own.
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nego što bi mi to sami mogli.
02:17
And in an age
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I u ovo doba
02:19
that is sometimes nowadays frightening
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to je ponekad zastrašujuće
02:22
or confusing,
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ili zbunjujuće,
02:24
we feel reassured
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osjećamo se osiguranima
02:26
by the almost parental-like authority
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s gotovo pred-natalnim autoritetom
02:29
of experts
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eksperata
02:31
who tell us so clearly what it is
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koji nam jasno govore što
02:34
we can and cannot do.
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možemo i nemožemo napraviti.
02:38
But I believe
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Ali ja vjerujem
02:40
that this is a big problem,
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kako je to veliki problem,
02:42
a problem with potentially dangerous consequences
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problem s potencijalno opasnim posljedicama
02:46
for us as a society,
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za nas kao društvo,
02:49
as a culture
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kao kulturu
02:51
and as individuals.
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i kao pojedince.
02:53
It's not that experts
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Nije kako eksperti
02:55
have not massively contributed to the world --
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nisu jako doprinijeli svijetu --
02:57
of course they have.
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naravno, da jesu.
02:59
The problem lies with us:
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Problem leži u nama;
03:02
we've become addicted to experts.
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postali smo ovisni o ekspertima.
03:05
We've become addicted to their certainty,
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Postali smo ovisni o njihovoj sigurnosti,
03:08
their assuredness,
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njihovoj uvjerljivosti,
03:10
their definitiveness,
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njihovoj definitivnosti,
03:12
and in the process,
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i u procesu,
03:14
we have ceded our responsibility,
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smo ustupili našu odgovornost,
03:16
substituting our intellect
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zamjenjujući naš intelekt
03:18
and our intelligence
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i našu inteligenciju
03:21
for their supposed words of wisdom.
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s njihovim navodnim riječima mudrosti.
03:24
We've surrendered our power,
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Predali smo našu moć,
03:27
trading off our discomfort
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mijenjajući našu neudobnost
03:29
with uncertainty
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s nesigurnošću
03:31
for the illusion of certainty
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s iluzijom sigurnosti
03:33
that they provide.
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koju oni osiguravaju.
03:36
This is no exaggeration.
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To nije pretjerivanje.
03:39
In a recent experiment,
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U nedavnom eksperimentu,
03:41
a group of adults
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grupa odraslih
03:43
had their brains scanned in an MRI machine
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dala je skenirati svoje mozgove na MRI uređaju
03:46
as they were listening to experts speak.
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dok su slušali dok im eksperti govore.
03:50
The results were quite extraordinary.
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Rezultati su bili prilično izvanredni.
03:53
As they listened to the experts' voices,
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Dok su slušali glasove eksperata,
03:56
the independent decision-making parts of their brains
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neovisni dijelovi njihovih mozgova za odlučivanje
04:01
switched off.
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su se ugasili.
04:03
It literally flat-lined.
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Jednostavno su umrli.
04:06
And they listened to whatever the experts said
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I slušali su štogod su eksperti govorili
04:08
and took their advice, however right or wrong.
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i uzimali njihove savjete, koliko god da su bili točni ili netočni.
04:12
But experts do get things wrong.
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Ali eksperti ponekad donesu krive odluke.
04:16
Did you know that studies show
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Jeste li znali kako studije pokazuju
04:19
that doctors misdiagnose
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kako doktori krivo dijagnosticiraju
04:22
four times out of 10?
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četiri puta od 10?
04:25
Did you know
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Jeste li znali
04:27
that if you file your tax returns yourself,
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da ako sami podnesete poreznu prijavu,
04:30
you're statistically more likely
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statistički je veća vjerojatnost
04:32
to be filing them correctly
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da će biti ispunjena točno
04:34
than if you get a tax adviser
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nego da to učini porezni savjetnik
04:36
to do it for you?
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za vas?
04:38
And then there's, of course, the example
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I tu je, naravno, primjer
04:40
that we're all too aware of:
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kojeg smo svi svjesni:
04:42
financial experts
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financijski eksperti
04:44
getting it so wrong
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koji su radili toliko krivo
04:46
that we're living through the worst recession
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da sada proživljavamo najveću recesiju
04:48
since the 1930s.
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od 1930-ih.
04:52
For the sake of our health,
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Zbog našeg zdravlja,
04:54
our wealth
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našeg bogatstva
04:56
and our collective security,
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i naše kolektivne sigurnosti,
04:58
it's imperative that we keep
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imperativ je da zadržimo
05:01
the independent decision-making parts of our brains
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neovisan dio naših mozgova koji je povezan s donošenjem odluka
05:05
switched on.
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upaljenim.
05:07
And I'm saying this as an economist
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I to govorim kao ekonomistica
05:09
who, over the past few years,
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koja je, kroz nekoliko posljednjih godina,
05:11
has focused my research
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usmjerila svoje istraživanje
05:13
on what it is we think
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na to što mislimo
05:15
and who it is we trust and why,
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te kome vjerujemo i zašto.
05:18
but also --
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Ali također --
05:20
and I'm aware of the irony here --
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i svjesna sam ironije ovdje --
05:22
as an expert myself,
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jer sam i sama ekspert,
05:25
as a professor,
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kao profesorica,
05:27
as somebody who advises prime ministers,
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kao netko tko savjetuje premijere,
05:30
heads of big companies,
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glavne ljude velikih kompanija,
05:32
international organizations,
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međunarodne organizacije,
05:34
but an expert who believes
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ali ekspert koji vjeruje
05:36
that the role of experts needs to change,
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da se uloga eksperata mora promijeniti,
05:39
that we need to become more open-minded,
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da moramo postati otvoreniji,
05:42
more democratic
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demokratičniji,
05:44
and be more open
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i biti otvoreniji
05:46
to people rebelling against
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da se ljudi pobune protiv
05:48
our points of view.
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naših pogleda.
05:51
So in order to help you understand
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Kako bih vam pomogla shvatiti
05:54
where I'm coming from,
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od kuda dolazim,
05:56
let me bring you into my world,
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dopustite da vas uvedem u svoj svijet,
05:59
the world of experts.
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svijet eksperata.
06:01
Now there are, of course, exceptions,
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Postoje, naravno, iznimke,
06:05
wonderful, civilization-enhancing exceptions.
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prekrasne, civilizacijom potaknute iznimke.
06:11
But what my research has shown me
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Ali ono što su mi moja istraživanja pokazala
06:14
is that experts tend on the whole
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jest kako eksperti u cjelini imaju tendenciju
06:17
to form very rigid camps,
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formirati jako rigidne tabore,
06:20
that within these camps,
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da unutar tih tabora,
06:22
a dominant perspective emerges
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dominantna perspektiva ispliva
06:25
that often silences opposition,
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koja često utiša opoziciju,
06:28
that experts move with the prevailing winds,
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da se eksperti kreću uz pomoć prevladavajućih struja,
06:31
often hero-worshipping
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često herojski obožavanih
06:34
their own gurus.
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njihovih vlastitih gurua.
06:36
Alan Greenspan's proclamations
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Proklamacije Alana Greenspana
06:38
that the years of economic growth
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kako će se godine ekonomskog rasta
06:41
would go on and on,
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ponavljati u beskonačnost,
06:44
not challenged by his peers,
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nisu bile izazvane od njegovih kolega,
06:47
until after the crisis, of course.
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do poslije krize, naravno.
06:51
You see,
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Vidite,
06:54
we also learn
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mi također učimo
06:56
that experts are located,
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kako su eksperti locirani,
06:58
are governed,
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upravljani,
07:00
by the social and cultural norms
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društvenim i kulturološkim normama
07:03
of their times --
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svog vremena --
07:05
whether it be the doctors
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bilo da su doktori
07:07
in Victorian England, say,
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viktorijanske Engleske, na primjer,
07:09
who sent women to asylums
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koji su slali žene u azile
07:12
for expressing sexual desire,
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kada bi izrazili seksualne želje,
07:15
or the psychiatrists in the United States
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ili psihijatri u Sjedinjenim Državama
07:18
who, up until 1973,
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koji su, do 1973.,
07:21
were still categorizing homosexuality
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još uvijek kategorizirali homoseksualnost
07:25
as a mental illness.
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kao mentalnu bolest.
07:27
And what all this means
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I što sve to znači
07:29
is that paradigms
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jest da paradigmama
07:31
take far too long to shift,
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treba previše da se promjene,
07:34
that complexity and nuance are ignored
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kako se složenost i nijanse ignoriraju,
07:38
and also that money talks --
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i da novac govori --
07:41
because we've all seen the evidence
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jer smo svi vidjeli dokaz
07:44
of pharmaceutical companies
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kako farmaceutske kompanije
07:46
funding studies of drugs
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financiraju istraživanja o lijekovima
07:49
that conveniently leave out
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koja konvencionalno izostavljaju
07:51
their worst side effects,
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njihove najgore efekte,
07:54
or studies funded by food companies
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ili studije koje financiraju prehrambene kompanije
07:57
of their new products,
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o njihovim novim proizvodima,
08:00
massively exaggerating the health benefits
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koje masovno pretjeruju o zdravstvenim koristima
08:03
of the products they're about to bring by market.
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proizvoda koje će plasirati na tržište.
08:06
The study showed that food companies exaggerated
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Studija pokazuje kako prehrambene kompanije pretjeruju
08:08
typically seven times more
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tipično sedam pute više
08:11
than an independent study.
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od nezavisnih studija.
08:15
And we've also got to be aware
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I također moramo biti svjesni
08:17
that experts, of course,
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da eksperti, naravno,
08:19
also make mistakes.
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također rade greške.
08:21
They make mistakes every single day --
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Oni griješe baš svaki dan --
08:24
mistakes born out of carelessness.
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greške koje se rađaju iz nemara.
08:27
A recent study in the Archives of Surgery
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Recentna studija u Arhivima kirurgije
08:30
reported surgeons
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pokazuje kako kirurzi
08:32
removing healthy ovaries,
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uklanjaju zdrave jajnike,
08:35
operating on the wrong side of the brain,
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operiraju na krivoj strani mozga,
08:38
carrying out procedures on the wrong hand,
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obavljaju operacije na krivoj ruci,
08:41
elbow, eye, foot,
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laktu, oku, nozi,
08:44
and also mistakes born out of thinking errors.
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i također greške koje se rađaju iz pogrešnog razmišljanja.
08:47
A common thinking error
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Uobičajenog načina razmišljanja
08:49
of radiologists, for example --
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na primjer radiologa --
08:52
when they look at CT scans --
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kada gledaju CT slike --
08:55
is that they're overly influenced
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koji su pod pretjeranim utjecajem
08:57
by whatever it is
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onoga što je
08:59
that the referring physician has said
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referentni doktor rekao
09:01
that he suspects
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da sumnja
09:03
the patient's problem to be.
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da je pacijentov problem.
09:06
So if a radiologist
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Ako radiolog
09:08
is looking at the scan
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gleda na sliku
09:10
of a patient with suspected pneumonia, say,
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pacijenta za kojega se sumnja da ima upalu pluća, recimo,
09:13
what happens is that,
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ono što se dogodi je,
09:15
if they see evidence
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ako vide dokaz
09:17
of pneumonia on the scan,
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upale pluća na slici,
09:20
they literally stop looking at it --
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oni je doslovno prestanu gledati --
09:23
thereby missing the tumor
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tako im može promaknuti tumor
09:25
sitting three inches below
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koji se nalazi osam cm niže
09:27
on the patient's lungs.
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na pacijentovim plućima.
09:31
I've shared with you so far
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Podijelila sam s vama do sada
09:34
some insights into the world of experts.
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neke spoznaje o svijetu eksperata.
09:37
These are, of course,
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To nisu, naravno,
09:39
not the only insights I could share,
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sve spoznaje koje sam mogla podijeliti,
09:41
but I hope they give you a clear sense at least
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ali se nadam da vam u najmanju ruku daju jasan osjećaj
09:44
of why we need to stop kowtowing to them,
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zašto im se moramo prestati klanjati,
09:47
why we need to rebel
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zašto se moramo pobuniti,
09:49
and why we need to switch
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i zašto moramo uključiti
09:51
our independent decision-making capabilities on.
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svoje neovisne sposobnosti donošenja odluka.
09:55
But how can we do this?
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Ali kako možemo to učiniti?
09:58
Well for the sake of time,
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Zbog količine vremena,
10:01
I want to focus on just three strategies.
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želim se fokusirati samo na tri strategije.
10:06
First, we've got to be ready and willing
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Prvo, moramo biti spremni i željni
10:08
to take experts on
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prihvatiti eksperte
10:11
and dispense with this notion of them
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i dijeliti tu ideju o njima
10:14
as modern-day apostles.
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kao apostolima suvremenog doba.
10:16
This doesn't mean having to get a Ph.D.
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To ne znači željeti imati doktorat
10:19
in every single subject,
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u svakom mogućem polju,
10:21
you'll be relieved to hear.
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o kojem ćete slušati.
10:23
But it does mean persisting
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Već to znači ustrajati
10:26
in the face of their inevitable annoyance
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po cijenu neizbježne muke
10:29
when, for example,
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kada, na primjer,
10:31
we want them to explain things to us
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želimo da nam objasne stvari
10:33
in language that we can actually understand.
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jezikom koji stvarno možemo razumijeti.
10:38
Why was it that, when I had an operation,
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Zašto to govorim, kada sam imala operaciju,
10:41
my doctor said to me,
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moj doktor mi je rekao,
10:43
"Beware, Ms. Hertz,
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"Čuvajte se, gđo. Herz,
10:45
of hyperpyrexia,"
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hiperpireksija,"
10:47
when he could have just as easily said,
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kada mi je jednostavno mogao reći
10:49
"Watch out for a high fever."
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čuvajte se visoke temperature?
10:53
You see, being ready to take experts on
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Vidite, biti spreman izazvati eksperta
10:57
is about also being willing
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odnosi se i na to da ste spremni
10:59
to dig behind their graphs,
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kopati iza njihovih grafova,
11:02
their equations, their forecasts,
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njihovih jednadžbi, njihovih prognoza,
11:04
their prophecies,
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njihovih proročanstava,
11:06
and being armed with the questions to do that --
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i biti naoružan pitanjima putem kojih ćete to raditi --
11:09
questions like:
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pitanjima poput:
11:11
What are the assumptions that underpin this?
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Koje su pretpostavke koje to podupiru?
11:14
What is the evidence upon which this is based?
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Koji je dokaz na kojem se to temelji?
11:17
What has your investigation focused on?
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Na što se vaše istraživanje usmjerilo?
11:21
And what has it ignored?
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A što je zanemarilo?
11:24
It recently came out
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Nedavno je izašlo
11:26
that experts trialing drugs
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da stručnjaci koji ispituju ljekove
11:29
before they come to market
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prije nego što ih plasiraju na tržište
11:31
typically trial drugs
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tipično ispituju lijekove
11:34
first, primarily on male animals
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prvo, primarno na muškim životinjama
11:38
and then, primarily on men.
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i onda primarno na muškarcima.
11:41
It seems that they've somehow overlooked the fact
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Izgleda da su nekako previdjeli činjenicu
11:44
that over half the world's population are women.
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da su preko polovice populacije žene.
11:49
And women have drawn the short medical straw
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I žene su medicinski zakinute,
11:52
because it now turns out that many of these drugs
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jer se sada pokazuje kako veliki broj tih lijekova
11:55
don't work nearly as well on women
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ne funkcionira ni približno dobro na ženama
11:58
as they do on men --
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kao što to rade na muškarcima --
12:00
and the drugs that do work well work so well
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a lijekovi koji dobro rade, to rade toliko dobro
12:03
that they're actively harmful for women to take.
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da su štetni za žene.
12:06
Being a rebel is about recognizing
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Biti pobunjenik znači prepoznati
12:09
that experts' assumptions
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kako stručne pretpostavke
12:12
and their methodologies
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i njihova metodologija
12:14
can easily be flawed.
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mogu jednostavno biti defektne.
12:17
Second,
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Drugo,
12:19
we need to create the space
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moramo kreirati prostor
12:22
for what I call "managed dissent."
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za ono što nazivam upravljujućim neslaganjem.
12:25
If we are to shift paradigms,
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Ako želimo promijeniti paradigme,
12:27
if we are to make breakthroughs,
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ako želimo stvoriti otkrića,
12:29
if we are to destroy myths,
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ako želimo uništiti mitove,
12:32
we need to create an environment
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moramo stvoriti okruženje
12:34
in which expert ideas are battling it out,
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u kojem se ekspertne ideje bore,
12:37
in which we're bringing in
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u kojem unosimo
12:39
new, diverse, discordant, heretical views
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nove, raznolike, proturječne, heretičke poglede
12:42
into the discussion,
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u raspravu,
12:44
fearlessly,
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bez straha,
12:46
in the knowledge that progress comes about,
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znajući kako se napredak događa,
12:49
not only from the creation of ideas,
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ne samo kroz stvaranje ideja,
12:53
but also from their destruction --
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već i iz njihova uništavanja --
12:56
and also from the knowledge
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i također iz znanja
12:59
that, by surrounding ourselves
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da ako se predamo
13:01
by divergent, discordant,
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raznolikim, proturječnim,
13:04
heretical views.
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heretičkim pogledima,
13:06
All the research now shows us
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sva istraživanja nam sada pokazuju
13:08
that this actually makes us smarter.
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da nas to čini pametnijima.
13:13
Encouraging dissent is a rebellious notion
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Poticanje neslaganja je buntovna misao
13:16
because it goes against our very instincts,
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jer ide protiv naših instinkta,
13:19
which are to surround ourselves
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a koji se odnose na to da se okružimo
13:22
with opinions and advice
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s mišljenjima i savjetima
13:24
that we already believe
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u koje već vjerujemo
13:27
or want to be true.
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ili želimo da su istiniti.
13:29
And that's why I talk about the need
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I to je zašto ja pričam o potrebi
13:31
to actively manage dissent.
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da se aktivno kontrolira neslaganje.
13:35
Google CEO Eric Schmidt
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Googleov izvršni direktor Eric Schmidt
13:37
is a practical practitioner
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je praktični praktičar
13:40
of this philosophy.
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ove filozofije.
13:42
In meetings, he looks out for the person in the room --
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Na sastancima, traži ljude po sobi --
13:45
arms crossed, looking a bit bemused --
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prekrštenih ruku, koji izgledaju odsutno --
13:48
and draws them into the discussion,
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i uvlači ih u raspravu,
13:51
trying to see if they indeed are
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želeći vidjeti jesu li oni stvarno
13:54
the person with a different opinion,
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osobe s drugačijim mišljenjem,
13:57
so that they have dissent within the room.
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kako bi imali neslaganje na sastanku.
14:00
Managing dissent
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Upravljati neslaganjem
14:02
is about recognizing the value
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odnosi se na prepoznavanje vrijednosti
14:05
of disagreement, discord
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neslaganja, disonance
14:08
and difference.
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i razlike.
14:10
But we need to go even further.
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Ali trebamo otići još i dalje.
14:13
We need to fundamentally redefine
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Moramo fundamentalno redefinirati
14:16
who it is that experts are.
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tko su eksperti.
14:20
The conventional notion
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Konvencionalna spoznaja
14:22
is that experts are people
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je da su eksperti ljudi
14:25
with advanced degrees,
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s visokim stupnjevima,
14:27
fancy titles, diplomas,
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kitinjastim naslovima, diplomama,
14:30
best-selling books --
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najprodavanijim knjigama --
14:32
high-status individuals.
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visoko pozicionirani pojedinci.
14:34
But just imagine
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Ali zamislite samo
14:36
if we were to junk
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kada bismo odbacili
14:38
this notion of expertise
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tu primisao ekspertize
14:42
as some sort of elite cadre
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kao neke vrste elitnog kadra
14:46
and instead embrace the notion
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i umjesto toga prihvatimo misao
14:49
of democratized expertise --
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demokratizirane stručnosti --
14:52
whereby expertise was not just the preserve
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gdje ekspertiza nije samo rezervirana
14:55
of surgeons and CEO's,
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za kirurge i menadžere,
14:57
but also shop-girls -- yeah.
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već i za cure u dućanu -- da.
15:01
Best Buy,
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Best Buy,
15:03
the consumer electronics company,
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kompanija koja prodaje potrošnu elektroniku,
15:05
gets all its employees --
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uzima sve svoje zaposlenike --
15:08
the cleaners, the shop assistants,
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čistače, asistente prodaje,
15:10
the people in the back office,
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ljude u uredima,
15:13
not just its forecasting team --
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ne samo svoj tim za predviđanja --
15:15
to place bets, yes bets,
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da se klade, da klade,
15:18
on things like whether or not
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na stvari hoće li se ili ne
15:20
a product is going to sell well before Christmas,
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proizvodi dobro prodavati prije Božića,
15:23
on whether customers' new ideas
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trebaju li se nove ideje kupaca
15:26
are going to be or should be taken on by the company,
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uzeti u razmatranje,
15:30
on whether a project
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hoće li se projekti
15:32
will come in on time.
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izvršiti na vrijeme.
15:34
By leveraging
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Balansirajući
15:36
and by embracing
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i uzimajući
15:38
the expertise within the company,
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ekspertizu unutar kompanije,
15:40
Best Buy was able to discover, for example,
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Best Buy je otkrio, na primjer,
15:43
that the store that it was going to open in China --
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kako dućan koji su namjeravali otvoriti u Kini --
15:47
its big, grand store --
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njihov veliki, grandiozni dućan --
15:49
was not going to open on time.
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neće biti otvoren na vrijeme.
15:52
Because when it asked its staff,
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Jer kada su pitali svoje zaposlenike,
15:54
all its staff, to place their bets
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sve svoje zaposlenike, da se klade
15:57
on whether they thought the store would open on time or not,
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na to misle li da će se dućan otvoriti na vrijeme ili ne,
16:01
a group from the finance department
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grupa iz odjela financija
16:04
placed all their chips
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stavila je sve svoje oklade
16:06
on that not happening.
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da se to neće dogoditi.
16:09
It turned out that they were aware,
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Ispalo je kako su bili svjesni,
16:11
as no one else within the company was,
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onoga što nitko drugi u kompaniji nije,
16:14
of a technological blip
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tehnološkog signala
16:16
that neither the forecasting experts,
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kojeg niti eksperti u odjelu predviđanja
16:18
nor the experts on the ground in China,
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niti eksperti u Kini,
16:21
were even aware of.
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nisu bili svjesni.
16:25
The strategies
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Strategije
16:27
that I have discussed this evening --
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o kojima sam pričala večeras --
16:30
embracing dissent,
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prihvaćanje neslaganja,
16:32
taking experts on,
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uzimanje stručnjaka,
16:34
democratizing expertise,
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demokratiziranje stručnosti,
16:36
rebellious strategies --
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buntovne strategije,
16:39
are strategies that I think
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su strategije za koje mislim
16:41
would serve us all well to embrace
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da će nam dobro služiti da ih prihvatimo
16:43
as we try to deal with the challenges
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dok se borimo s izazovima
16:46
of these very confusing, complex,
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ovog jako konfuznog, složenog,
16:49
difficult times.
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teškog vremena.
16:51
For if we keep
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Jer ako zadržimo
16:53
our independent decision-making part
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naš dio za neovisno donošenje odluka
16:55
of our brains switched on,
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u mozgu uključenim,
16:58
if we challenge experts, if we're skeptical,
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ako izazovemo stručnjake, ako smo skeptični,
17:01
if we devolve authority,
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ako se suprostavimo autoritetu,
17:03
if we are rebellious,
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ako smo buntovni,
17:05
but also
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ali također
17:07
if we become much more comfortable
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ako postanemo puno komforniji
17:09
with nuance,
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s nijansama,
17:11
uncertainty and doubt,
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nesigurnošću i sumnjom,
17:14
and if we allow our experts
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i ako dopustimo stručnjacima
17:17
to express themselves
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da se izraze
17:19
using those terms too,
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koristeći također ove uvjete,
17:21
we will set ourselves up
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postaviti ćemo se
17:23
much better
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puno bolje
17:25
for the challenges of the 21st century.
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naspram izazova 21. stoljeća.
17:29
For now, more than ever,
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Jer sada, više no ikada,
17:32
is not the time
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nije vrijeme
17:34
to be blindly following,
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za slijepo slijeđenje,
17:36
blindly accepting,
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slijepo prihvaćanje,
17:38
blindly trusting.
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slijepo vjerovanje.
17:41
Now is the time to face the world
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Sada je vrijeme suočiti se sa svijetom
17:44
with eyes wide open --
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širom otvorenih očiju --
17:47
yes, using experts
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da, koristeći stručnjake
17:49
to help us figure things out, for sure --
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da nam pomognu shvatiti stvari, naravno --
17:52
I don't want to completely do myself out of a job here --
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ne želim potpuno ostati bez posla --
17:56
but being aware
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ali bivajući svjesni
17:58
of their limitations
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njihovih ograničenja
18:01
and, of course, also our own.
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i naravno, naših vlastitih.
18:05
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
18:07
(Applause)
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Pljesak.
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Noreena Hertz - EconomistNoreena Hertz looks at global culture -- financial and otherwise -- using an approach that combines traditional economic analysis with foreign policy trends, psychology, behavioural economics, anthropology, history and sociology.
Why you should listen
For more than two decades, Noreena Hertz’s economic predictions have been accurate and ahead of the curve. In her recent book The Silent Takeover, Hertz predicted that unregulated markets and massive financial institutions would have serious global consequences while her 2005 book IOU: The Debt Threat predicted the 2008 financial crisis.
An influential economist on the international stage, Hertz also played an influential role in the development of (RED), an innovative commercial model to raise money for people with AIDS in Africa, having inspired Bono (co-founder of the project) with her writings.
Her work is considered to provide a much needed blueprint for rethinking economics and corporate strategy. She is the Duisenberg Professor of Globalization, Sustainability and Finance based at Duisenberg School of Finance, RSM, Erasmus University and University of Cambridge. She is also a Fellow of University College London.
Noreena Hertz | Speaker | TED.com