TED2018
Yuval Noah Harari: Why fascism is so tempting -- and how your data could power it
Juval Noa Harari (Yuval Noah Harari): Zašto je fašizam toliko privlačan - i kako mu vaši podaci mogu dati vetar u leđa?
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U pronicljivom govoru o tehnologiji i moći, pisac i istoričar Juval Noa Harari, objašnjava važnu razliku između fašizma i nacionalizma - i šta konsolidacija naših podataka znači za budućnost demokratije. Pojavljujući se kao hologram uživo iz Tel Aviva, Harari nas upozorava da je najveća opasnost s kojom je trenutno suočena liberalna demokratija ta što će revolucija u informacionoj tehnologiji da učini diktature efikasnijim i sposobnim da imaju kontrolu. „Neprijatelji liberalne demokratije hakuju naša osećanja straha, mržnje i taštine, i potom koriste ova osećanja radi polarizacije i razaranja“, kaže Harari. „Dužnost je svih nas da spoznamo naše slabosti i da se postaramo da one ne postanu oružja.“ (Praćeno kratkim razgovorom sa Krisom Andersonom, kustosom TED-a)
Yuval Noah Harari - Historian, author
In his book "Homo Deus," Yuval Noah Harari explores the future of humankind: the destinies we may set for ourselves and the quests we'll undertake. Full bio
In his book "Homo Deus," Yuval Noah Harari explores the future of humankind: the destinies we may set for ourselves and the quests we'll undertake. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Hello, everyone.
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Zdravo svima.
00:15
It's a bit funny, because I did write
that humans will become digital,
that humans will become digital,
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Malo je smešno jer sam pisao
kako će ljudi da postanu digitalni,
kako će ljudi da postanu digitalni,
00:20
but I didn't think it will happen so fast
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ali nisam mislio
da će tako brzo da se desi
da će tako brzo da se desi
00:23
and that it will happen to me.
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i da će meni da se desi.
00:25
But here I am, as a digital avatar,
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Ali, evo me u vidu digitalnog avatara,
00:28
and here you are, so let's start.
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a eto i vas, pa zato počnimo.
00:32
And let's start with a question.
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I započnimo pitanjem:
00:34
How many fascists are there
in the audience today?
in the audience today?
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koliko fašista ima u publici danas?
00:38
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
00:39
Well, it's a bit difficult to say,
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Pa, malo je teško reći
00:42
because we've forgotten what fascism is.
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jer smo zaboravili šta je fašizam.
00:46
People now use the term "fascist"
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Ljudi trenutno koriste termin „fašista“
00:49
as a kind of general-purpose abuse.
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kao neki vid opšteprimenljive uvrede.
00:52
Or they confuse fascism with nationalism.
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Ili mešaju fašizam sa nacionalizmom.
00:56
So let's take a few minutes
to clarify what fascism actually is,
to clarify what fascism actually is,
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Zato, odvojimo nekoliko minuta
da razjasnimo šta je zapravo fašizam
da razjasnimo šta je zapravo fašizam
01:02
and how it is different from nationalism.
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i po čemu se razlikuje od nacionalizma.
01:05
The milder forms of nationalism
have been among the most benevolent
have been among the most benevolent
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Blaži oblici nacionalizma
su među najdobroćudnijim
su među najdobroćudnijim
01:10
of human creations.
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ljudskim tvorevinama.
01:12
Nations are communities
of millions of strangers
of millions of strangers
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Nacije su zajednice miliona stranaca
01:17
who don't really know each other.
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koji se zaista međusobno ne poznaju.
01:19
For example, I don't know
the eight million people
the eight million people
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Na primer, ja ne poznajem
osam miliona ljudi
osam miliona ljudi
01:22
who share my Israeli citizenship.
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koji dele sa mnom izraelsko državljanstvo.
01:26
But thanks to nationalism,
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Međutim, zahvaljujući nacionalizmu,
01:28
we can all care about one another
and cooperate effectively.
and cooperate effectively.
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svi možemo da brinemo jedni za druge
i da efikasno sarađujemo.
i da efikasno sarađujemo.
01:32
This is very good.
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Ovo je veoma dobro.
01:34
Some people, like John Lennon,
imagine that without nationalism,
imagine that without nationalism,
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Neki ljudi, poput Džona Lenona,
zamišljali su da bi bez nacionalizma
zamišljali su da bi bez nacionalizma
01:39
the world will be a peaceful paradise.
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svet bio miroljubivi raj.
01:44
But far more likely,
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Međutim, daleko je izvesnije
01:45
without nationalism,
we would have been living in tribal chaos.
we would have been living in tribal chaos.
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da bismo bez nacionalizma
živeli u plemenskom haosu.
živeli u plemenskom haosu.
01:50
If you look today at the most prosperous
and peaceful countries in the world,
and peaceful countries in the world,
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Pogledate li današnje najprosperitetnije
i najmirnije države na svetu,
i najmirnije države na svetu,
01:55
countries like Sweden
and Switzerland and Japan,
and Switzerland and Japan,
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države poput Švedske, Švajcarske i Japana,
02:00
you will see that they have
a very strong sense of nationalism.
a very strong sense of nationalism.
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videćete da oni imaju veoma snažan
osećaj nacionalne pripadnosti.
osećaj nacionalne pripadnosti.
02:05
In contrast, countries that lack
a strong sense of nationalism,
a strong sense of nationalism,
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Nasuprot tome, države kojima nedostaje
snažan osećaj nacionalne pripadnosti,
snažan osećaj nacionalne pripadnosti,
02:09
like Congo and Somalia and Afghanistan,
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poput Konga, Somalije i Avganistana,
02:13
tend to be violent and poor.
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nasilnije su i siromašnije.
02:16
So what is fascism, and how
is it different from nationalism?
is it different from nationalism?
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Dakle, šta je fašizam
i u čemu se razlikuje od nacionalizma?
i u čemu se razlikuje od nacionalizma?
02:21
Well, nationalism tells me
that my nation is unique,
that my nation is unique,
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Pa, nacionalizam mi kaže
da je moja nacija jedinstvena
da je moja nacija jedinstvena
02:27
and that I have special obligations
towards my nation.
towards my nation.
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i da imam posebne dužnosti
prema mojoj naciji.
prema mojoj naciji.
02:31
Fascism, in contrast, tells me
that my nation is supreme,
that my nation is supreme,
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Fašizam, nasuprot tome, mi kaže
da je moja nacija superiorna
da je moja nacija superiorna
02:37
and that I have exclusive
obligations towards it.
obligations towards it.
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i da imam isključive obaveze prema njoj.
02:42
I don't need to care about anybody
or anything other than my nation.
or anything other than my nation.
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Ne moram da marim za bilo koga
ili za bilo šta osim moje nacije.
ili za bilo šta osim moje nacije.
02:48
Usually, of course,
people have many identities
people have many identities
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Obično, naravno,
ljudi imaju višestruke identitete
ljudi imaju višestruke identitete
02:52
and loyalties to different groups.
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i odanosti različitim grupama.
02:55
For example, I can be a good patriot,
loyal to my country,
loyal to my country,
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Na primer, mogu da budem
dobar patriota, odan svojoj državi
dobar patriota, odan svojoj državi
02:59
and at the same time,
be loyal to my family,
be loyal to my family,
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i da istovremeno budem
odan svojoj porodici,
odan svojoj porodici,
03:03
my neighborhood, my profession,
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svom komšiluku, svojoj profesiji,
03:05
humankind as a whole,
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čovečanstvu u celosti,
03:06
truth and beauty.
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istini i lepoti.
03:09
Of course, when I have different
identities and loyalties,
identities and loyalties,
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Naravno, kada imam različite
identitete i odanosti,
identitete i odanosti,
03:13
it sometimes creates conflicts
and complications.
and complications.
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to ponekad stvara sukobe i komplikacije.
03:17
But, well, who ever told you
that life was easy?
that life was easy?
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Međutim, dobro, ko vam je ikad
rekao da je život lak?
rekao da je život lak?
03:21
Life is complicated.
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Život je komplikovan.
03:23
Deal with it.
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Nosite se s tim.
03:26
Fascism is what happens when people try
to ignore the complications
to ignore the complications
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Do fašizma dolazi kada ljudi pokušaju
da ignorišu komplikacije
da ignorišu komplikacije
03:32
and to make life too easy for themselves.
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i pokušaju da suviše
pojednostave život za sebe.
pojednostave život za sebe.
03:36
Fascism denies all identities
except the national identity
except the national identity
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Fašizam negira sve identitete
osim nacionalnog identiteta
osim nacionalnog identiteta
03:41
and insists that I have obligations
only towards my nation.
only towards my nation.
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i insistira da ja imam obaveze
samo prema mojoj naciji.
samo prema mojoj naciji.
03:47
If my nation demands
that I sacrifice my family,
that I sacrifice my family,
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Ako moja nacija zahteva
da žrtvujem moju porodicu,
da žrtvujem moju porodicu,
03:51
then I will sacrifice my family.
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onda ću da žrtvujem moju porodicu.
03:54
If the nation demands
that I kill millions of people,
that I kill millions of people,
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Ako nacija zahteva
da ubijem milione ljudi,
da ubijem milione ljudi,
03:58
then I will kill millions of people.
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onda ću da ubijem milione ljudi.
04:01
And if my nation demands
that I betray truth and beauty,
that I betray truth and beauty,
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A ako moja nacija zahteva
da izdam istinu i lepotu,
da izdam istinu i lepotu,
04:07
then I should betray truth and beauty.
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onda treba i da izdam istinu i lepotu.
04:11
For example, how does
a fascist evaluate art?
a fascist evaluate art?
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Na primer, kako fašista ocenjuje umetnost?
04:16
How does a fascist decide whether a movie
is a good movie or a bad movie?
is a good movie or a bad movie?
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Kako fašista odlučuje
da li je film dobar ili loš?
da li je film dobar ili loš?
04:22
Well, it's very, very, very simple.
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Pa, veoma, veoma, veoma je prosto.
04:27
There is really just one yardstick:
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Zaista postoji samo jedno merilo:
04:29
if the movie serves
the interests of the nation,
the interests of the nation,
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ako film služi interesima nacije,
04:33
it's a good movie;
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onda je to dobar film;
04:34
if the movie doesn't serve
the interests of the nation,
the interests of the nation,
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ako film ne služi interesima nacije,
04:37
it's a bad movie.
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onda je to loš film.
04:39
That's it.
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To je to.
04:40
Similarly, how does a fascist decide
what to teach kids in school?
what to teach kids in school?
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Slično, kako fašista odlučuje
šta treba deca da uče u školi?
šta treba deca da uče u školi?
04:45
Again, it's very simple.
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Opet, veoma je prosto.
04:47
There is just one yardstick:
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Postoji samo jedno merilo:
04:49
you teach the kids whatever serves
the interests of the nation.
the interests of the nation.
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podučavate decu bilo čemu što služi
nacionalnom interesu.
nacionalnom interesu.
04:55
The truth doesn't matter at all.
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Istina uopšte nije važna.
05:00
Now, the horrors of the Second World War
and of the Holocaust remind us
and of the Holocaust remind us
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Sad, užasi Drugog svetskog rata
i Holokausta nas podsećaju
i Holokausta nas podsećaju
05:05
of the terrible consequences
of this way of thinking.
of this way of thinking.
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na jezive posledice
ovog načina razmišljanja.
ovog načina razmišljanja.
05:10
But usually, when we talk
about the ills of fascism,
about the ills of fascism,
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Međutim, obično kada govorimo
o manama fašizma,
o manama fašizma,
05:15
we do so in an ineffective way,
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radimo to na neefikasan način
05:18
because we tend to depict fascism
as a hideous monster,
as a hideous monster,
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jer često prikazujemo fašizam
kao odvratno čudovište,
kao odvratno čudovište,
05:22
without really explaining
what was so seductive about it.
what was so seductive about it.
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a da zaista ne objašnjavamo
šta je bilo tako zavodljivo u vezi s njim.
šta je bilo tako zavodljivo u vezi s njim.
05:27
It's a bit like these Hollywood movies
that depict the bad guys --
that depict the bad guys --
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Pomalo liči na način na koji
holivudski filmovi prikazuju negativce -
holivudski filmovi prikazuju negativce -
05:32
Voldemort or Sauron
or Darth Vader --
or Darth Vader --
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Voldemora ili Saurona ili Darta Vejdera -
05:36
as ugly and mean and cruel.
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kao ružne, zle i okrutne.
05:38
They're cruel even
to their own supporters.
to their own supporters.
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Oni su okrutni čak i prema
sopstvenim podržavaocima.
sopstvenim podržavaocima.
05:41
When I see these movies,
I never understand --
I never understand --
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Kad odgledam ove filmove,
uopšte ne razumem -
uopšte ne razumem -
05:45
why would anybody be tempted to follow
a disgusting creep like Voldemort?
a disgusting creep like Voldemort?
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zašto bi bilo koga privlačilo da prati
odvratnog ljigavca poput Voldemora?
odvratnog ljigavca poput Voldemora?
05:52
The problem with evil
is that in real life,
is that in real life,
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Problem sa zlom je što u stvarnom životu
05:56
evil doesn't necessarily look ugly.
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zlo nužno ne izgleda ružno.
05:59
It can look very beautiful.
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Može da izgleda veoma lepo.
06:02
This is something that
Christianity knew very well,
Christianity knew very well,
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To je nešto čega je hrišćanstvo
bilo veoma svesno,
bilo veoma svesno,
06:05
which is why in Christian art,
as [opposed to] Hollywood,
as [opposed to] Hollywood,
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zbog čega je u hrišćanskoj umetnosti,
nasuprot Holivudu,
nasuprot Holivudu,
06:08
Satan is usually depicted
as a gorgeous hunk.
as a gorgeous hunk.
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Satana često prikazan
kao prelepi zavodnik.
kao prelepi zavodnik.
06:13
This is why it's so difficult
to resist the temptations of Satan,
to resist the temptations of Satan,
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Zbog toga je tako teško
odoleti Sataninim iskušenjima
odoleti Sataninim iskušenjima
06:17
and why it is also difficult
to resist the temptations of fascism.
to resist the temptations of fascism.
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i zbog toga je takođe teško
odoleti iskušenjima fašizma.
odoleti iskušenjima fašizma.
06:22
Fascism makes people see themselves
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Zbog fašizma ljudi sebe vide
06:25
as belonging to the most beautiful
and most important thing in the world --
and most important thing in the world --
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kao pripadnike najlepše
i najvažnije stvari na svetu -
i najvažnije stvari na svetu -
06:30
the nation.
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nacije.
06:32
And then people think,
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I onda ljudi misle:
06:33
"Well, they taught us
that fascism is ugly.
that fascism is ugly.
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„Dobro, učili su nas da je fašizam ružan.
06:37
But when I look in the mirror,
I see something very beautiful,
I see something very beautiful,
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Međutim, kad pogledam u ogledalo,
vidim nešto veoma lepo,
vidim nešto veoma lepo,
06:40
so I can't be a fascist, right?"
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pa ne mogu da budem fašista, zar ne?“
06:43
Wrong.
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Greška.
06:44
That's the problem with fascism.
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To je problem kod fašizma.
06:45
When you look in the fascist mirror,
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Kada pogledate u fašističko ogledalo,
06:48
you see yourself as far more beautiful
than you really are.
than you really are.
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vidite sebe kao mnogo lepše
nego što zaista jeste.
nego što zaista jeste.
06:53
In the 1930s, when Germans
looked in the fascist mirror,
looked in the fascist mirror,
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Tokom 1930-ih, kad bi Nemci
pogledali u fašističko ogledalo,
pogledali u fašističko ogledalo,
06:57
they saw Germany as the most
beautiful thing in the world.
beautiful thing in the world.
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videli bi Nemačku
kao nešto najlepše na svetu.
kao nešto najlepše na svetu.
07:02
If today, Russians look
in the fascist mirror,
in the fascist mirror,
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Ako bi danas Rusi pogledali
u fašističko ogledalo,
u fašističko ogledalo,
07:05
they will see Russia as the most
beautiful thing in the world.
beautiful thing in the world.
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videli bi Rusiju kao nešto
najlepše na svetu.
najlepše na svetu.
07:09
And if Israelis look
in the fascist mirror,
in the fascist mirror,
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I ako bi Izraelci pogledali
u fašističko ogledalo,
u fašističko ogledalo,
07:12
they will see Israel as the most
beautiful thing in the world.
beautiful thing in the world.
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videli bi Izrael kao nešto
najlepše na svetu.
najlepše na svetu.
07:18
This does not mean that we are now
facing a rerun of the 1930s.
facing a rerun of the 1930s.
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Ovo ne znači da smo trenutno
suočeni sa reprizom 1930-ih.
suočeni sa reprizom 1930-ih.
07:24
Fascism and dictatorships might come back,
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Fašizam i diktature mogu da se vrate,
07:27
but they will come back in a new form,
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ali će da se vrate u novom obliku,
07:31
a form which is much more relevant
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obliku koji je daleko relevantniji
07:33
to the new technological realities
of the 21st century.
of the 21st century.
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za novu tehnološku stvarnost XXI veka.
07:38
In ancient times,
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U drevna vremena,
07:40
land was the most important
asset in the world.
asset in the world.
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zemlja je bila najvažniji posed na svetu.
07:44
Politics, therefore,
was the struggle to control land.
was the struggle to control land.
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Politika, samim tim,
bila je borba za kontrolu zemlje.
bila je borba za kontrolu zemlje.
07:49
And dictatorship meant that all the land
was owned by a single ruler
was owned by a single ruler
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A diktatura je značila da svu zemlju
poseduje jedan vladar
poseduje jedan vladar
07:55
or by a small oligarch.
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ili manji oligarh.
07:57
And in the modern age,
machines became more important than land.
machines became more important than land.
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A u moderno vreme,
mašine su postale važnije od zemlje.
mašine su postale važnije od zemlje.
08:03
Politics became the struggle
to control the machines.
to control the machines.
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Politika je postala borba
da se kontrolišu mašine.
da se kontrolišu mašine.
08:07
And dictatorship meant
126
475354
1996
A diktatura je značila
08:09
that too many of the machines
became concentrated
became concentrated
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da je preveliki broj mašina
postao koncentrisan
postao koncentrisan
u rukama vlade ili malobrojne elite.
08:13
in the hands of the government
or of a small elite.
or of a small elite.
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3280
08:17
Now data is replacing
both land and machines
both land and machines
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Sada podaci uzimaju mesto zemlje i mašina
08:21
as the most important asset.
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2111
kao najvažnijeg poseda.
08:24
Politics becomes the struggle
to control the flows of data.
to control the flows of data.
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Politika postaje borba
da se kontroliše protok podataka.
da se kontroliše protok podataka.
08:29
And dictatorship now means
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2708
A diktatura trenutno znači
08:32
that too much data is being concentrated
in the hands of the government
in the hands of the government
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da je prevelika količina podataka
koncentrisana u rukama vlade
koncentrisana u rukama vlade
08:38
or of a small elite.
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1920
ili malobrojne elite.
08:40
The greatest danger
that now faces liberal democracy
that now faces liberal democracy
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Najveća opasnost s kojom je trenutno
suočena liberalna demokratija
suočena liberalna demokratija
08:45
is that the revolution
in information technology
in information technology
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je to što će revolucija
u informacionoj tehnologiji
u informacionoj tehnologiji
08:49
will make dictatorships
more efficient than democracies.
more efficient than democracies.
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učiniti diktature efikasnijim
od demokratija.
od demokratija.
08:54
In the 20th century,
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U XX veku,
08:56
democracy and capitalism
defeated fascism and communism
defeated fascism and communism
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demokratija i kapitalizam
su porazili fašizam i komunizam
su porazili fašizam i komunizam
09:01
because democracy was better
at processing data and making decisions.
at processing data and making decisions.
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jer je demokratija bila bolja
u obradi podataka i donošenju odluka.
u obradi podataka i donošenju odluka.
09:07
Given 20th-century technology,
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Uz tehnologiju XX veka,
09:09
it was simply inefficient to try
and concentrate too much data
and concentrate too much data
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6035
prosto je bilo neefikasno pokušavati
koncentrisati preveliku količinu podataka
koncentrisati preveliku količinu podataka
09:15
and too much power in one place.
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i previše moći na jedno mesto.
09:19
But it is not a law of nature
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Međutim, ne radi se o zakonu prirode
09:23
that centralized data processing
is always less efficient
is always less efficient
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5604
da je centralizovana obrada podataka
uvek manje efikasna
uvek manje efikasna
09:29
than distributed data processing.
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2547
od raspodeljene obrade podataka.
09:32
With the rise of artificial intelligence
and machine learning,
and machine learning,
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3437
S usponom veštačke inteligencije
i mašinskog učenja,
i mašinskog učenja,
09:36
it might become feasible to process
enormous amounts of information
enormous amounts of information
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mogla bi da postane izvodljiva
obrada ogromne količine informacija
obrada ogromne količine informacija
09:41
very efficiently in one place,
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2610
veoma efikasno na jednom mestu,
09:44
to take all the decisions in one place,
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3191
da se sve odluke stave na jedno mesto
09:47
and then centralized data processing
will be more efficient
will be more efficient
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i tako bi centralizovana
obrada podataka bila efikasnija
obrada podataka bila efikasnija
09:52
than distributed data processing.
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2200
od raspodeljene obrade podataka.
09:55
And then the main handicap
of authoritarian regimes
of authoritarian regimes
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I tada bi glavni nedostatak
autoritarnih režima
autoritarnih režima
09:58
in the 20th century --
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1637
iz XX veka -
10:00
their attempt to concentrate
all the information in one place --
all the information in one place --
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4516
njihov pokušaj da koncentrišu
sve informacije na jedno mesto -
sve informacije na jedno mesto -
10:05
it will become their greatest advantage.
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postao njihova najveća prednost.
10:10
Another technological danger
that threatens the future of democracy
that threatens the future of democracy
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4907
Još jedna tehnološka opasnost
koja preti budućnosti demokratije
koja preti budućnosti demokratije
10:15
is the merger of information technology
with biotechnology,
with biotechnology,
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5159
je spajanje informacione tehnologije
sa biotehnologijom,
sa biotehnologijom,
10:20
which might result
in the creation of algorithms
in the creation of algorithms
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4005
a to bi moglo da rezultira
stvaranjem algoritama
stvaranjem algoritama
10:24
that know me better than I know myself.
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4316
koji me poznaju bolje
nego što ja poznajem sebe.
nego što ja poznajem sebe.
10:29
And once you have such algorithms,
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A čim dobijete takve algoritme,
10:31
an external system, like the government,
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2849
spoljni sistemi, poput vlade,
10:34
cannot just predict my decisions,
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3524
ne samo da mogu predvideti moje postupke;
10:38
it can also manipulate
my feelings, my emotions.
my feelings, my emotions.
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takođe mogu da manipulišu
mojim osećanjima, mojim emocijama.
mojim osećanjima, mojim emocijama.
10:42
A dictator may not be able
to provide me with good health care,
to provide me with good health care,
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Diktator možda neće moći
da mi pruži dobro zdravstvo,
da mi pruži dobro zdravstvo,
10:47
but he will be able to make me love him
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ali može da učini da ga volim
10:51
and to make me hate the opposition.
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i da učini da mrzim opoziciju.
10:55
Democracy will find it difficult
to survive such a development
to survive such a development
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Demokratiji će da bude teško
da preživi takav razvoj
da preživi takav razvoj
11:00
because, in the end,
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2150
jer, naposletku,
11:02
democracy is not based
on human rationality;
on human rationality;
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4127
demokratija nije zasnovana
na ljudskoj racionalnosti;
na ljudskoj racionalnosti;
11:06
it's based on human feelings.
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zasnovana je na ljudskim osećanjima.
11:10
During elections and referendums,
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Tokom izbora i referenduma,
11:12
you're not being asked,
"What do you think?"
"What do you think?"
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ne pitaju vas: „Šta mislite?“
11:15
You're actually being asked,
"How do you feel?"
"How do you feel?"
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Zapravo vas pitaju: „Kako se osećate?“
11:20
And if somebody can manipulate
your emotions effectively,
your emotions effectively,
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4627
A ako neko može efikasno
da manipuliše vašim emocijama,
da manipuliše vašim emocijama,
11:24
democracy will become
an emotional puppet show.
an emotional puppet show.
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demokratija će da postane
emocionalna lutkarska predstava.
emocionalna lutkarska predstava.
11:30
So what can we do to prevent
the return of fascism
the return of fascism
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4515
Dakle, šta možemo da uradimo
da sprečimo povratak fašizma
da sprečimo povratak fašizma
11:34
and the rise of new dictatorships?
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2650
i uspon novih diktatura?
11:37
The number one question that we face
is: Who controls the data?
is: Who controls the data?
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6310
Prvo pitanje s kojim smo suočeni
glasi: ko kontroliše podatke?
glasi: ko kontroliše podatke?
11:44
If you are an engineer,
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1675
Ako ste inženjer,
11:46
then find ways to prevent too much data
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3968
onda pronađite način da sprečite
da prevelika količina podataka
da prevelika količina podataka
11:50
from being concentrated in too few hands.
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2825
bude koncentrisana u premalo ruku.
11:53
And find ways to make sure
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2944
I pronađite načine da obezbedite
11:56
the distributed data processing
is at least as efficient
is at least as efficient
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4413
da raspodeljena obrada podataka
bude bar jednako efikasna
bude bar jednako efikasna
12:01
as centralized data processing.
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2396
kao i centralizovana obrada podataka.
12:04
This will be the best
safeguard for democracy.
safeguard for democracy.
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3841
To će da bude najbolji branik demokratije.
12:07
As for the rest of us
who are not engineers,
who are not engineers,
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Što se tiče nas ostalih
koji nismo inženjeri,
koji nismo inženjeri,
12:11
the number one question facing us
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3444
prvo pitanje s kojim smo suočeni
12:14
is how not to allow
ourselves to be manipulated
ourselves to be manipulated
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4647
jeste kako da ne dozvolimo
da nama manipulišu
da nama manipulišu
12:19
by those who control the data.
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2806
oni koji kontrolišu podatke.
12:23
The enemies of liberal democracy,
they have a method.
they have a method.
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4106
Neprijatelji liberalne
demokratije imaju metod.
demokratije imaju metod.
12:27
They hack our feelings.
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2372
Hakuju naša osećanja.
12:30
Not our emails, not our bank accounts --
193
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2452
Ne naše imejlove,
ne naše bankovne račune -
ne naše bankovne račune -
12:32
they hack our feelings of fear
and hate and vanity,
and hate and vanity,
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5207
hakuju naša osećanja straha,
mržnje i taštine,
mržnje i taštine,
12:38
and then use these feelings
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2428
kako bi onda koristili ta osećanja
12:40
to polarize and destroy
democracy from within.
democracy from within.
196
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3952
da polarizuju i unište
demokratiju iznutra.
demokratiju iznutra.
12:44
This is actually a method
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1920
Ovo je zapravo metod
12:46
that Silicon Valley pioneered
in order to sell us products.
in order to sell us products.
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5049
koji je prva uvela Silicijumska dolina
da bi nam prodavali proizvode.
da bi nam prodavali proizvode.
12:52
But now, the enemies of democracy
are using this very method
are using this very method
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5022
Međutim, sad neprijatelji demokratije
koriste baš ovaj metod
koriste baš ovaj metod
12:57
to sell us fear and hate and vanity.
200
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3724
da nam prodaju strah, mržnju i taštinu.
13:01
They cannot create
these feelings out of nothing.
these feelings out of nothing.
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3659
Ne mogu stvarati ova osećanja ni iz čega.
13:06
So they get to know our own
preexisting weaknesses.
preexisting weaknesses.
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3831
Stoga upoznaju naše postojeće slabosti.
13:10
And then use them against us.
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I potom ih koriste protiv nas.
13:13
And it is therefore
the responsibility of all of us
the responsibility of all of us
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3508
Stoga je dužnost svih nas
13:17
to get to know our weaknesses
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2634
da spoznamo naše slabosti
13:19
and make sure that they
do not become a weapon
do not become a weapon
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3635
i da se postaramo
da one ne postanu oružja
da one ne postanu oružja
13:23
in the hands of the enemies of democracy.
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2883
u rukama neprijatelja demokratije.
13:27
Getting to know our own weaknesses
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2548
Spoznaja naših slabosti
13:29
will also help us to avoid the trap
of the fascist mirror.
of the fascist mirror.
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5583
takođe će da nam pomogne da izbegnemo
zamku fašističkog ogledala.
zamku fašističkog ogledala.
13:36
As we explained earlier,
fascism exploits our vanity.
fascism exploits our vanity.
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4151
Kao što smo ranije objasnli,
fašizam eksploatiše našu taštinu.
fašizam eksploatiše našu taštinu.
13:40
It makes us see ourselves
as far more beautiful than we really are.
as far more beautiful than we really are.
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5746
Zbog njega vidimo sebe
kao mnogo lepše nego što zaista jesmo.
kao mnogo lepše nego što zaista jesmo.
13:46
This is the seduction.
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1467
Radi se o zavođenju.
13:48
But if you really know yourself,
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2447
Ali, ako uistinu poznajete sebe,
13:50
you will not fall
for this kind of flattery.
for this kind of flattery.
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3468
nećete pasti na ovaj vid laskanja.
13:54
If somebody puts a mirror
in front of your eyes
in front of your eyes
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4063
Ako vam neko pred oči stavi ogledalo
13:58
that hides all your ugly bits
and makes you see yourself
and makes you see yourself
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5060
koje sakriva sve vaše ružne delove,
a zbog čega sebe vidite
a zbog čega sebe vidite
14:04
as far more beautiful
and far more important
and far more important
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832050
4284
daleko lepšim i daleko važnijim
14:08
than you really are,
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1591
nego što zaista jeste,
14:09
just break that mirror.
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2864
samo razbijte to ogledalo.
14:13
Thank you.
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1151
Hvala vam.
14:14
(Applause)
221
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6382
(Aplauz)
14:22
Chris Anderson: Yuval, thank you.
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1632
Kris Anderson: Juval, hvala ti.
14:24
Goodness me.
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1151
Za ime boga.
14:25
It's so nice to see you again.
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853958
1940
Tako je lepo videti te opet.
14:27
So, if I understand you right,
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1591
Dakle, ako sam te dobro razumeo,
14:29
you're alerting us
to two big dangers here.
to two big dangers here.
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2667
upozoravaš nas na dve velike opasnosti.
14:32
One is the possible resurgence
of a seductive form of fascism,
of a seductive form of fascism,
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4492
Jedna je mogući novi uspon
zavodljivih oblika fašizma,
zavodljivih oblika fašizma,
14:36
but close to that, dictatorships
that may not exactly be fascistic,
that may not exactly be fascistic,
228
864744
4254
ali blisko tome, diktature
koje možda ne bi bile baš fašističke,
koje možda ne bi bile baš fašističke,
14:41
but control all the data.
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2563
već bi kontrolisale sve podatke.
14:43
I wonder if there's a third concern
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2096
Pitam se postoji li treća briga
14:45
that some people here
have already expressed,
have already expressed,
231
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2118
koju su neki ljudi ovde već izrazili,
14:47
which is where, not governments,
but big corporations control all our data.
but big corporations control all our data.
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4897
a to su ne vlade, već velike korporacije
koje kontrolišu sve podatke.
koje kontrolišu sve podatke.
14:52
What do you call that,
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1309
Kako nazivaš to
14:54
and how worried should we be about that?
234
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2387
i koliko bi trebalo da budemo
zabrinuti zbog toga?
zabrinuti zbog toga?
14:56
Yuval Noah Harari: Well, in the end,
there isn't such a big difference
there isn't such a big difference
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3339
Juval Noa Harari: Pa, naposletku,
nema naročito velike razlike
nema naročito velike razlike
14:59
between the corporations
and the governments,
and the governments,
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2426
između korporacija i vlada
15:02
because, as I said, the questions is:
Who controls the data?
Who controls the data?
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3420
jer, kao što sam rekao, pitanje glasi:
ko kontroliše podatke?
ko kontroliše podatke?
15:05
This is the real government.
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1395
To je stvarna vlada.
15:07
If you call it a corporation
or a government --
or a government --
239
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2444
Ako to nazivate korporacijom ili vladom -
15:09
if it's a corporation
and it really controls the data,
and it really controls the data,
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3155
ako je korporacija ta
koja zaista kontroliše podatke,
koja zaista kontroliše podatke,
15:12
this is our real government.
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1928
to je naša stvarna vlada.
15:14
So the difference
is more apparent than real.
is more apparent than real.
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3067
Dakle, razlika je
pre prividna nego stvarna.
pre prividna nego stvarna.
15:18
CA: But somehow,
at least with corporations,
at least with corporations,
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2858
KA: Međutim, nekako, bar s korporacijama,
15:21
you can imagine market mechanisms
where they can be taken down.
where they can be taken down.
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3519
možemo da zamislimo mehanizme tržišta
kojima ih možemo svrgnuti.
kojima ih možemo svrgnuti.
15:24
I mean, if consumers just decide
245
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1917
Mislim, ako potrošači prosto odluče
15:26
that the company is no longer
operating in their interest,
operating in their interest,
246
914895
2754
da firma više ne posluje
u njihovom interesu,
u njihovom interesu,
15:29
it does open the door to another market.
247
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1913
to otvara vrata za novo tržište.
15:31
It seems easier to imagine that
248
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1546
Čini se da je lakše to zamisliti
15:33
than, say, citizens rising up
and taking down a government
and taking down a government
249
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3151
nego, recimo, građane
koji ustaju i svrgavaju vladu
koji ustaju i svrgavaju vladu
koja kontroliše sve.
15:36
that is in control of everything.
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1612
JNH: Pa, nismo još uvek stigli dotle,
15:37
YNH: Well, we are not there yet,
251
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1555
15:39
but again, if a corporation really
knows you better than you know yourself --
knows you better than you know yourself --
252
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5158
ali, opet, ako vas korporacija zaista
poznaje bolje nego što vi poznajete sebe -
poznaje bolje nego što vi poznajete sebe -
15:44
at least that it can manipulate
your own deepest emotions and desires,
your own deepest emotions and desires,
253
932752
5254
bar da može da manipuliše
vašim najdubljim emocijama i žudnjama,
vašim najdubljim emocijama i žudnjama,
15:50
and you won't even realize --
254
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1666
pa vi nećete čak ni biti svesni -
15:51
you will think this is
your authentic self.
your authentic self.
255
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2579
mislićete da ste to autentični vi.
15:54
So in theory, yes, in theory,
you can rise against a corporation,
you can rise against a corporation,
256
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4055
Dakle, u teoriji, da, u teoriji
možete da ustanete protiv korporacije,
možete da ustanete protiv korporacije,
15:58
just as, in theory, you can rise
against a dictatorship.
against a dictatorship.
257
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3733
baš kao što, u teoriji, možete
da ustanete protiv diktature.
da ustanete protiv diktature.
16:02
But in practice,
it is extremely difficult.
it is extremely difficult.
258
950982
3283
Međutim, u praksi izuzetno je teško.
16:07
CA: So in "Homo Deus," you argue
that this would be the century
that this would be the century
259
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4082
KA: Dakle, u knjizi „Homo Deus“
raspravljaš da će ovo da bude vek
raspravljaš da će ovo da bude vek
16:11
when humans kind of became gods,
260
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3411
u kom će ljudi da postanu
bogovi na neki način,
bogovi na neki način,
16:14
either through development
of artificial intelligence
of artificial intelligence
261
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2993
bilo putem razvoja veštačke inteligencije
16:17
or through genetic engineering.
262
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2929
ili putem genetskog inženjeringa.
16:20
Has this prospect of political
system shift, collapse
system shift, collapse
263
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5468
Da li je ovaj vid preokreta
političkog sistema, kolapsa,
političkog sistema, kolapsa,
16:26
impacted your view on that possibility?
264
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2664
uticao na tvoje viđenje te mogućnosti?
16:29
YNH: Well, I think it makes it
even more likely,
even more likely,
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JNH: Mislim da je zbog toga
ona još izglednija,
ona još izglednija,
16:32
and more likely
that it will happen faster,
that it will happen faster,
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i izglednije je da će brže da se desi,
16:35
because in times of crisis,
people are willing to take risks
people are willing to take risks
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jer u kriznim vremenima,
ljudi su spremni da rizikuju
ljudi su spremni da rizikuju
16:40
that they wouldn't otherwise take.
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kako inače ne bi.
16:42
And people are willing to try
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I ljudi su spremni da isprobaju
16:45
all kinds of high-risk,
high-gain technologies.
high-gain technologies.
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sve vidove visokorizičnih
tehnologija sa visokim dobicima.
tehnologija sa visokim dobicima.
16:49
So these kinds of crises
might serve the same function
might serve the same function
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Dakle, ovi vidovi kriza
bi mogli da posluže istoj svrsi
bi mogli da posluže istoj svrsi
16:54
as the two world wars in the 20th century.
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kao dva svetska rata u XX veku.
16:57
The two world wars greatly accelerated
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Dva svetska rata su uveliko ubrzala
17:00
the development of new
and dangerous technologies.
and dangerous technologies.
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razvoj novih i opasnih tehnologija.
17:04
And the same thing might happen
in the 21st century.
in the 21st century.
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A isto bi moglo da se desi u XXI veku.
17:07
I mean, you need to be
a little crazy to run too fast,
a little crazy to run too fast,
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Mislim, morate da budete
malčice ludi da delujete ishitreno,
malčice ludi da delujete ishitreno,
17:11
let's say, with genetic engineering.
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recimo, sa genetskim inženjeringom.
17:13
But now you have more
and more crazy people
and more crazy people
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Međutim, trenutno imate
sve više ludih ljudi
sve više ludih ljudi
17:17
in charge of different
countries in the world,
countries in the world,
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koji upravljaju različitim
državama u svetu,
državama u svetu,
17:19
so the chances are getting
higher, not lower.
higher, not lower.
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pa šanse postaju veće, a ne manje.
17:23
CA: So, putting it all together, Yuval,
you've got this unique vision.
you've got this unique vision.
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KA: Dakle, da sve zaokružimo, Juval,
imaš tu jedinstvenu viziju.
imaš tu jedinstvenu viziju.
17:27
Roll the clock forward 30 years.
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Premotajmo sat 30 godina unapred.
17:28
What's your guess --
does humanity just somehow scrape through,
does humanity just somehow scrape through,
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Šta pretpostavljaš - da li se čovečanstvo
nekako zamalo provlači,
nekako zamalo provlači,
17:31
look back and say, "Wow,
that was a close thing. We did it!"
that was a close thing. We did it!"
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osvrće se unazad i kaže:
„Uh, to je bilo zamalo. Uspeli smo!“
„Uh, to je bilo zamalo. Uspeli smo!“
17:35
Or not?
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Ili ne?
17:36
YNH: So far, we've managed
to overcome all the previous crises.
to overcome all the previous crises.
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JNH: Do sad smo uspevali
da prevaziđemo prethodne krize.
da prevaziđemo prethodne krize.
17:40
And especially if you look
at liberal democracy
at liberal democracy
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A naročito ako pogledate
liberalnu demokratiju
liberalnu demokratiju
17:43
and you think things are bad now,
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i pomislite da su stvari trenutno loše,
17:46
just remember how much worse
things looked in 1938 or in 1968.
things looked in 1938 or in 1968.
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samo se setite koliko su gore
stvari izgledale 1938. ili 1968. godine.
stvari izgledale 1938. ili 1968. godine.
17:52
So this is really nothing,
this is just a small crisis.
this is just a small crisis.
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Dakle, ovo uistinu nije ništa,
ovo je tek mala kriza.
ovo je tek mala kriza.
17:56
But you can never know,
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Ali, nikad ne možete da znate
17:58
because, as a historian,
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jer, kao istoričar,
18:00
I know that you should never
underestimate human stupidity.
underestimate human stupidity.
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znam da nikad ne bi trebalo
da potcenjujete ljudsku glupost.
da potcenjujete ljudsku glupost.
18:05
(Laughter) (Applause)
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(Smeh) (Aplauz)
18:06
It is one of the most powerful forces
that shape history.
that shape history.
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Ona je jedna od najsnažnijih sila
koje oblikuju ljudsku istoriju.
koje oblikuju ljudsku istoriju.
18:11
CA: Yuval, it's been an absolute delight
to have you with us.
to have you with us.
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KA: Juval, apsolutno je zadovoljstvo
što si nam se pridružio.
što si nam se pridružio.
18:14
Thank you for making the virtual trip.
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Hvala na virtuelnom putovanju.
Želim ti prijatno veče tamo u Tel Avivu.
18:16
Have a great evening there in Tel Aviv.
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Juval Harari!
18:18
Yuval Harari!
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JNH: Mnogo vam hvala.
18:19
YNH: Thank you very much.
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(Aplauz)
18:20
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Yuval Noah Harari - Historian, authorIn his book "Homo Deus," Yuval Noah Harari explores the future of humankind: the destinies we may set for ourselves and the quests we'll undertake.
Why you should listen
In his book, Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow, Yuval Noah Harari explores the projects, dreams and nightmares that will shape the 21st century -- from overcoming death to creating artificial life. He maps the future and asks fundamental questions: Where do we go from here? How will we protect this fragile world from our own destructive powers? The book has sold four million copies since its publication in 2016.
Harari's previous book, Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind, explores what made homo sapiens the most successful species on the planet. His answer: We are the only animal that can believe in things that exist purely in our imagination, such as gods, states, money, human rights, corporations and other fictions, and we have developed a unique ability to use these stories to unify and organize groups and ensure cooperation. Sapiens has sold eight million copies and been translated into more than 50 languages. Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg and President Barack Obama have recommended it as a must-read.
Harari lectures as a Professor of history at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, where he specializes in world history, medieval history and military history. His current research focuses on macro-historical questions: What is the relationship between history and biology? What is the essential difference between Homo sapiens and other animals? Is there justice in history? Does history have a direction? Did people become happier as history unfolded? Harari has written for newspapers such as The Guardian, Financial Times, the Times, Nature magazine and the Wall Street Journal.
Harari's new book, 21 Lessons for the 21st Century, will take the pulse of our current global climate, focusing on the biggest questions of the present moment: What is really happening right now? What are today’s greatest challenges and choices? What should we pay attention to? The book will be published in multiple languages in September 2018.
Yuval Noah Harari | Speaker | TED.com