TED2018
Yuval Noah Harari: Why fascism is so tempting -- and how your data could power it
Yuval Noah Harari: Zašto je fašizam tako primamljiv -- i kako ga vaši podaci mogu osnažiti
Filmed:
Readability: 4.3
3,018,055 views
U dubokoumnom govoru o tehnologiji i moći, autor i povjesničar Yuval Noah Harari objašnjava važnu razliku između fašizma i nacionalizma -- i što konsolidacija naših podataka znači za budućnost demokracije. Pojavljujući se kao hologram uživo iz Tel Aviva, Harari upozorava da je najveća opasnost, s kojom se danas suočava liberalna demokracija, revolucija u informacijskoj tehnologiji koja će diktaturama omogućiti još bolju i učinkovitiju kontrolu. "Neprijatelji liberalne demokracije hakiraju naše osjećaje straha i mržnje i sujete i onda te osjećaje koriste za polarizaciju i uništavanje," kaže Harari. "Odgovornost je svih nas da spoznamo svoje slabosti i spriječimo da one postanu oružje."
(Popraćeno kratkim razgovorom s TED voditeljem Chrisom Andersonom)
Yuval Noah Harari - Historian, author
In his book "Homo Deus," Yuval Noah Harari explores the future of humankind: the destinies we may set for ourselves and the quests we'll undertake. Full bio
In his book "Homo Deus," Yuval Noah Harari explores the future of humankind: the destinies we may set for ourselves and the quests we'll undertake. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Hello, everyone.
0
968
1150
Pozdrav svima.
00:15
It's a bit funny, because I did write
that humans will become digital,
that humans will become digital,
1
3562
4936
Ovo je pomalo smiješno jer ja jesam pisao
da će ljudi postati digitalni,
da će ljudi postati digitalni,
00:20
but I didn't think it will happen so fast
2
8522
2714
ali nisam mislio da će se to
dogoditi tako brzo
dogoditi tako brzo
00:23
and that it will happen to me.
3
11260
1659
i da će se dogoditi meni.
00:25
But here I am, as a digital avatar,
4
13649
2682
No, evo tu sam, kao digitalni avatar,
00:28
and here you are, so let's start.
5
16355
2666
a vi ste ovdje, pa počnimo.
00:32
And let's start with a question.
6
20070
2133
Počnimo pitanjem.
00:34
How many fascists are there
in the audience today?
in the audience today?
7
22823
3534
Koliko fašista ima danas u publici?
00:38
(Laughter)
8
26381
1450
(Smijeh)
00:39
Well, it's a bit difficult to say,
9
27855
2349
Pa, to je malo teško reći
00:42
because we've forgotten what fascism is.
10
30228
3467
jer smo zaboravili što je zapravo fašizam.
00:46
People now use the term "fascist"
11
34498
2579
Ljudi danas koriste izraz "fašist"
00:49
as a kind of general-purpose abuse.
12
37101
3008
kao neku vrstu univerzalne uvrede.
00:52
Or they confuse fascism with nationalism.
13
40133
3947
Ili fašizam brkaju s nacionalizmom.
00:56
So let's take a few minutes
to clarify what fascism actually is,
to clarify what fascism actually is,
14
44863
5388
Pa, hajdemo u nekoliko minuta
razjasniti što je fašizam zapravo
razjasniti što je fašizam zapravo
01:02
and how it is different from nationalism.
15
50275
3120
i kako se razlikuje od nacionalizma.
01:05
The milder forms of nationalism
have been among the most benevolent
have been among the most benevolent
16
53838
5041
Blaži oblici nacionalizma
su među najbenevolentnijim oblicima
su među najbenevolentnijim oblicima
01:10
of human creations.
17
58903
1458
ljudskih kreacija.
01:12
Nations are communities
of millions of strangers
of millions of strangers
18
60990
4111
Nacije su zajednice milijuna stranaca
01:17
who don't really know each other.
19
65125
1713
koji se zapravo ne poznaju međusobno.
01:19
For example, I don't know
the eight million people
the eight million people
20
67489
3405
Na primjer, ja ne poznajem
osam milijuna ljudi
osam milijuna ljudi
01:22
who share my Israeli citizenship.
21
70918
2556
koji dijele moje izraelsko državljanstvo.
01:26
But thanks to nationalism,
22
74109
2167
No, zahvaljujući nacionalizmu
01:28
we can all care about one another
and cooperate effectively.
and cooperate effectively.
23
76300
3806
mi svi možemo brinuti jedni o drugima
i učinkovito surađivati.
i učinkovito surađivati.
01:32
This is very good.
24
80450
1200
To je jako dobro.
01:34
Some people, like John Lennon,
imagine that without nationalism,
imagine that without nationalism,
25
82093
5738
Neki ljudi, poput Johna Lennona,
zamišljaju da će bez nacionalizma
zamišljaju da će bez nacionalizma
01:39
the world will be a peaceful paradise.
26
87855
3790
svijet biti miroljubivi raj.
01:44
But far more likely,
27
92010
1428
No, mnogo je izglednije
01:45
without nationalism,
we would have been living in tribal chaos.
we would have been living in tribal chaos.
28
93462
4777
da bismo bez nacionalizma
živjeli u plemenskom kaosu.
živjeli u plemenskom kaosu.
01:50
If you look today at the most prosperous
and peaceful countries in the world,
and peaceful countries in the world,
29
98684
5135
Ako danas pogledate najnaprednije
i namiroljubivije zemlje u svijetu,
i namiroljubivije zemlje u svijetu,
01:55
countries like Sweden
and Switzerland and Japan,
and Switzerland and Japan,
30
103843
4290
zemlje poput Švedske
i Švicarske i Japana,
i Švicarske i Japana,
02:00
you will see that they have
a very strong sense of nationalism.
a very strong sense of nationalism.
31
108157
4963
vidjet ćete da one imaju
vrlo jak nacionalni osjećaj.
vrlo jak nacionalni osjećaj.
02:05
In contrast, countries that lack
a strong sense of nationalism,
a strong sense of nationalism,
32
113750
4160
Nasuprot tome, zemlje kojima
nedostaje jak nacionalni osjećaj,
nedostaje jak nacionalni osjećaj,
02:09
like Congo and Somalia and Afghanistan,
33
117934
3421
poput Konga i Somalije i Afganistana,
02:13
tend to be violent and poor.
34
121379
2174
imaju tendenciju nasilju i siromaštvu.
02:16
So what is fascism, and how
is it different from nationalism?
is it different from nationalism?
35
124855
4138
Dakle, što je fašizam
i kako se razlikuje od nacionalizma?
i kako se razlikuje od nacionalizma?
02:21
Well, nationalism tells me
that my nation is unique,
that my nation is unique,
36
129941
5403
Pa, nacionalizam mi govori
da je moja nacija jedinstvena
da je moja nacija jedinstvena
02:27
and that I have special obligations
towards my nation.
towards my nation.
37
135368
3801
i da ja imam posebne obaveze
prema svojoj naciji.
prema svojoj naciji.
02:31
Fascism, in contrast, tells me
that my nation is supreme,
that my nation is supreme,
38
139641
6206
Fašizam, nasuprot tome, govori mi
da je moja nacija dominantna
da je moja nacija dominantna
02:37
and that I have exclusive
obligations towards it.
obligations towards it.
39
145871
3912
i da ja imam isključive obaveze
prema njoj.
prema njoj.
02:42
I don't need to care about anybody
or anything other than my nation.
or anything other than my nation.
40
150895
4831
Ja ne trebam mariti o nikomu
i ničemu osim moje nacije.
i ničemu osim moje nacije.
02:48
Usually, of course,
people have many identities
people have many identities
41
156465
3603
Obično, naravno,
ljudi imaju mnogo identiteta
ljudi imaju mnogo identiteta
02:52
and loyalties to different groups.
42
160092
2422
i lojalnosti prema različitim grupama.
02:55
For example, I can be a good patriot,
loyal to my country,
loyal to my country,
43
163036
4804
Na primjer, ja mogu biti dobar domoljub,
lojalan svojoj zemlji,
lojalan svojoj zemlji,
02:59
and at the same time,
be loyal to my family,
be loyal to my family,
44
167864
3238
i u isto vrijeme
biti lojalan svojoj obitelji,
biti lojalan svojoj obitelji,
03:03
my neighborhood, my profession,
45
171126
2361
svom susjedstvu, svojoj profesiji,
03:05
humankind as a whole,
46
173511
1460
čovječanstvu općenito,
03:06
truth and beauty.
47
174995
1604
istini i ljepoti.
03:09
Of course, when I have different
identities and loyalties,
identities and loyalties,
48
177370
4271
Naravno, kada imam različite
identitete i lojalnosti,
identitete i lojalnosti,
03:13
it sometimes creates conflicts
and complications.
and complications.
49
181665
3333
to ponekad stvara konflikte
i komplikacije.
i komplikacije.
03:17
But, well, who ever told you
that life was easy?
that life was easy?
50
185506
3634
No, tko vam je ikada rekao
da je život jednostavan?
da je život jednostavan?
03:21
Life is complicated.
51
189649
2040
Život je kompliciran.
03:23
Deal with it.
52
191713
1150
Pomirite se s tim.
03:26
Fascism is what happens when people try
to ignore the complications
to ignore the complications
53
194331
6000
Fašizam je ono što se događa kada
ljudi pokušavaju ignorirati komplikacije
ljudi pokušavaju ignorirati komplikacije
03:32
and to make life too easy for themselves.
54
200355
3109
i previše si olakšavati život.
03:36
Fascism denies all identities
except the national identity
except the national identity
55
204128
5572
Fašizam negira sve identitete
osim nacionalnog identiteta
osim nacionalnog identiteta
03:41
and insists that I have obligations
only towards my nation.
only towards my nation.
56
209724
5109
i insistira da imam obaveze
samo prema svojoj naciji.
samo prema svojoj naciji.
03:47
If my nation demands
that I sacrifice my family,
that I sacrifice my family,
57
215421
4104
Ako moja nacija zahtijeva
da žrtvujem svoju obitelj,
da žrtvujem svoju obitelj,
03:51
then I will sacrifice my family.
58
219549
2436
onda ću žrtvovati svoju obitelj.
03:54
If the nation demands
that I kill millions of people,
that I kill millions of people,
59
222009
4274
Ako nacija zahtijeva
da ubijem milijune ljudi,
da ubijem milijune ljudi,
03:58
then I will kill millions of people.
60
226307
2658
onda ću ubiti milijune ljudi.
04:01
And if my nation demands
that I betray truth and beauty,
that I betray truth and beauty,
61
229442
6075
I ako moja nacija zahtijeva
da izdam istinu i ljepotu,
da izdam istinu i ljepotu,
04:07
then I should betray truth and beauty.
62
235541
3023
onda moram izdati istinu i ljepotu.
04:11
For example, how does
a fascist evaluate art?
a fascist evaluate art?
63
239587
4526
Na primjer, kako fašist
procjenjuje umjetnost?
procjenjuje umjetnost?
04:16
How does a fascist decide whether a movie
is a good movie or a bad movie?
is a good movie or a bad movie?
64
244615
5289
Kako fašist odlučuje
da li je neki film dobar ili loš?
da li je neki film dobar ili loš?
04:22
Well, it's very, very, very simple.
65
250728
4172
Pa, to je jako, jako, jako jednostavno.
04:27
There is really just one yardstick:
66
255260
1928
Postoji zapravo samo jedno mjerilo:
04:29
if the movie serves
the interests of the nation,
the interests of the nation,
67
257593
3476
ako film služi interesima nacije,
04:33
it's a good movie;
68
261093
1444
to je dobar film;
04:34
if the movie doesn't serve
the interests of the nation,
the interests of the nation,
69
262561
3183
ako film ne služi interesima nacije,
04:37
it's a bad movie.
70
265768
1222
to je loš film.
04:39
That's it.
71
267014
1150
To je to.
04:40
Similarly, how does a fascist decide
what to teach kids in school?
what to teach kids in school?
72
268496
4888
Slično, kako fašist odlučuje
što učiti djecu u školi?
što učiti djecu u školi?
04:45
Again, it's very simple.
73
273877
2087
Ponovo, to je vrlo jednostavno.
04:47
There is just one yardstick:
74
275988
1945
Postoji samo jedno mjerilo:
04:49
you teach the kids whatever serves
the interests of the nation.
the interests of the nation.
75
277957
4945
djecu učite onome
što služi interesima nacije.
što služi interesima nacije.
04:55
The truth doesn't matter at all.
76
283323
2587
Istina uopće nije važna.
05:00
Now, the horrors of the Second World War
and of the Holocaust remind us
and of the Holocaust remind us
77
288372
5426
Užasi Drugog svjetskog rata i Holokausta
podsjećaju nas
podsjećaju nas
05:05
of the terrible consequences
of this way of thinking.
of this way of thinking.
78
293822
4133
na užasne posljedice
takvog načina razmišljanja.
takvog načina razmišljanja.
05:10
But usually, when we talk
about the ills of fascism,
about the ills of fascism,
79
298508
4545
No, obično kada govorimo o zlu fašizma,
05:15
we do so in an ineffective way,
80
303077
2960
mi to radimo na neučinkovit način
05:18
because we tend to depict fascism
as a hideous monster,
as a hideous monster,
81
306061
4738
jer smo skloni fašizam prikazivati
kao odvratnog monstruma,
kao odvratnog monstruma,
05:22
without really explaining
what was so seductive about it.
what was so seductive about it.
82
310823
3906
bez da stvarno objasnimo
što je to tako zavodljivo u njemu.
što je to tako zavodljivo u njemu.
05:27
It's a bit like these Hollywood movies
that depict the bad guys --
that depict the bad guys --
83
315284
4714
To je pomalo kao u holivudskim filmovima
koji prikazuju zločeste dečke --
koji prikazuju zločeste dečke --
05:32
Voldemort or Sauron
or Darth Vader --
or Darth Vader --
84
320022
4023
Voldemorta ili Saurona il Dartha Vadera --
05:36
as ugly and mean and cruel.
85
324069
2632
kao ružne i zle i okrutne.
05:38
They're cruel even
to their own supporters.
to their own supporters.
86
326725
2538
Oni su okrutni čak i
prema vlastitim pristalicama.
prema vlastitim pristalicama.
05:41
When I see these movies,
I never understand --
I never understand --
87
329670
3621
Kada gledam te filmove
nikada mi nije jasno --
nikada mi nije jasno --
05:45
why would anybody be tempted to follow
a disgusting creep like Voldemort?
a disgusting creep like Voldemort?
88
333315
6505
zašto bi itko došao u napast da slijedi
odvratnu nakazu poput Voldemorta?
odvratnu nakazu poput Voldemorta?
05:52
The problem with evil
is that in real life,
is that in real life,
89
340895
3516
problem sa zlom je da u stvarnom životu
05:56
evil doesn't necessarily look ugly.
90
344435
2891
zlo nije nužno ružno naizgled.
05:59
It can look very beautiful.
91
347688
1892
Ono može izgledati vrlo lijepo.
06:02
This is something that
Christianity knew very well,
Christianity knew very well,
92
350354
2723
To je nešto što kršćanstvo jako dobro zna
06:05
which is why in Christian art,
as [opposed to] Hollywood,
as [opposed to] Hollywood,
93
353101
3706
i zbog čega se u kršćanskoj umjetnosti,
za razliku od Hollywooda,
za razliku od Hollywooda,
06:08
Satan is usually depicted
as a gorgeous hunk.
as a gorgeous hunk.
94
356831
3868
Sotona obično prikazuje
kao prekrasan 'komad'.
kao prekrasan 'komad'.
06:13
This is why it's so difficult
to resist the temptations of Satan,
to resist the temptations of Satan,
95
361259
4596
To je razlog da je tako teško
odoljeti njegovim iskušenjima
odoljeti njegovim iskušenjima
06:17
and why it is also difficult
to resist the temptations of fascism.
to resist the temptations of fascism.
96
365879
4744
i zašto je također teško
odoljeti iskušenjima fašizma.
odoljeti iskušenjima fašizma.
06:22
Fascism makes people see themselves
97
370980
2722
Fašizam djeluje na ljude tako
da se oni vide
da se oni vide
06:25
as belonging to the most beautiful
and most important thing in the world --
and most important thing in the world --
98
373726
5243
kao pripadnici najljepše
i najvažnije stvari na svijetu --
i najvažnije stvari na svijetu --
06:30
the nation.
99
378993
1302
nacije.
06:32
And then people think,
100
380319
1346
I onda ljudi misle,
06:33
"Well, they taught us
that fascism is ugly.
that fascism is ugly.
101
381689
3189
"Pa dobro, učili su nas
da je fašizam ružan.
da je fašizam ružan.
06:37
But when I look in the mirror,
I see something very beautiful,
I see something very beautiful,
102
385442
3024
Ali kad pogledam u ogledalo
ja vidim nešto prekrasno,
ja vidim nešto prekrasno,
06:40
so I can't be a fascist, right?"
103
388490
2191
stoga ja ne mogu biti fašist, zar ne?"
06:43
Wrong.
104
391022
1151
Krivo.
06:44
That's the problem with fascism.
105
392197
1547
To je problem sa fašizmom.
06:45
When you look in the fascist mirror,
106
393768
2619
Kada pogledate u fašističko ogledalo,
06:48
you see yourself as far more beautiful
than you really are.
than you really are.
107
396411
4534
vi sebe vidite daleko ljepšim
no što stvarno jeste.
no što stvarno jeste.
06:53
In the 1930s, when Germans
looked in the fascist mirror,
looked in the fascist mirror,
108
401371
4293
Tridesetih godina, kada su Nijemci
gledali u fašističko ogledalo,
gledali u fašističko ogledalo,
06:57
they saw Germany as the most
beautiful thing in the world.
beautiful thing in the world.
109
405688
4040
vidjeli su Njemačku
kao najljepšu stvar na svijetu.
kao najljepšu stvar na svijetu.
07:02
If today, Russians look
in the fascist mirror,
in the fascist mirror,
110
410244
3436
Ako danas Rusi pogledaju
u fašističko ogledalo,
u fašističko ogledalo,
07:05
they will see Russia as the most
beautiful thing in the world.
beautiful thing in the world.
111
413704
3559
vidjet će Rusiju kao najljepšu
stvar na svijetu.
stvar na svijetu.
07:09
And if Israelis look
in the fascist mirror,
in the fascist mirror,
112
417577
3128
A ako Izraelci pogledaju
u fašističko ogledalo,
u fašističko ogledalo,
07:12
they will see Israel as the most
beautiful thing in the world.
beautiful thing in the world.
113
420729
4380
vidjet će Izrael kao najljepšu
stvar na svijetu.
stvar na svijetu.
07:18
This does not mean that we are now
facing a rerun of the 1930s.
facing a rerun of the 1930s.
114
426657
5057
To ne znači da smo danas suočeni
s ponavljanjem 1930.-tih.
s ponavljanjem 1930.-tih.
07:24
Fascism and dictatorships might come back,
115
432304
3475
Fašizam i diktature mogli bi se vratiti,
07:27
but they will come back in a new form,
116
435803
3239
ali vratit će se u novom obliku,
07:31
a form which is much more relevant
117
439066
2741
u obliku koji je puno podobniji
07:33
to the new technological realities
of the 21st century.
of the 21st century.
118
441831
3809
za nove tehnološke stvarnosti
21. stoljeća.
21. stoljeća.
07:38
In ancient times,
119
446538
1547
U drevnim vremenima
07:40
land was the most important
asset in the world.
asset in the world.
120
448109
4160
zemlja je bila najvažnija
prednost na svijetu.
prednost na svijetu.
07:44
Politics, therefore,
was the struggle to control land.
was the struggle to control land.
121
452911
3864
Politika je, stoga, bila
borba za kontrolu zemlje.
borba za kontrolu zemlje.
07:49
And dictatorship meant that all the land
was owned by a single ruler
was owned by a single ruler
122
457141
5860
A diktatura je značila da je sva zemlja
u vlasništvu jednog vladara
u vlasništvu jednog vladara
07:55
or by a small oligarch.
123
463025
1872
ili male oligarhije.
07:57
And in the modern age,
machines became more important than land.
machines became more important than land.
124
465827
4819
A u moderno doba strojevi
su postali važniji od zemlje.
su postali važniji od zemlje.
08:03
Politics became the struggle
to control the machines.
to control the machines.
125
471347
3600
Politika je postala borba
za kontrolu nad strojevima.
za kontrolu nad strojevima.
08:07
And dictatorship meant
126
475354
1996
A diktatura znači
08:09
that too many of the machines
became concentrated
became concentrated
127
477374
3910
da je previše strojeva
postalo koncentrirano
postalo koncentrirano
08:13
in the hands of the government
or of a small elite.
or of a small elite.
128
481308
3280
u rukama vlade ili malobrojne elite.
08:17
Now data is replacing
both land and machines
both land and machines
129
485109
4706
Danas su podaci zamijenili
i zemlju i strojeve
i zemlju i strojeve
08:21
as the most important asset.
130
489839
2111
kao najvažnija prednost ili imovina.
08:24
Politics becomes the struggle
to control the flows of data.
to control the flows of data.
131
492600
5340
Politika postaje borba za kontrolu
nad tokovima podataka.
nad tokovima podataka.
08:29
And dictatorship now means
132
497964
2708
A diktatura sada znači
08:32
that too much data is being concentrated
in the hands of the government
in the hands of the government
133
500696
5780
da je previše podataka koncentrirano
u rukama vlade
u rukama vlade
08:38
or of a small elite.
134
506500
1920
ili malobrojne elite.
08:40
The greatest danger
that now faces liberal democracy
that now faces liberal democracy
135
508871
4912
Najveća opasnost s kojom se danas
suočava liberalna demokracija
suočava liberalna demokracija
08:45
is that the revolution
in information technology
in information technology
136
513807
3270
jest da će revolucija
informacijske tehnologije
informacijske tehnologije
08:49
will make dictatorships
more efficient than democracies.
more efficient than democracies.
137
517101
4790
učiniti diktature učinkovitijima
od demokracija.
od demokracija.
08:54
In the 20th century,
138
522760
1619
U 20. stoljeću
08:56
democracy and capitalism
defeated fascism and communism
defeated fascism and communism
139
524403
4960
demokracija i kapitalizam
porazili su fašizam i komunizam
porazili su fašizam i komunizam
09:01
because democracy was better
at processing data and making decisions.
at processing data and making decisions.
140
529387
5202
zato jer je demokracija bila bolja
u obradi podataka i donošenju odluka.
u obradi podataka i donošenju odluka.
09:07
Given 20th-century technology,
141
535319
2366
Uz danu tehnologiju 20. stoljeća
09:09
it was simply inefficient to try
and concentrate too much data
and concentrate too much data
142
537709
6035
bilo je jednostavno neefikasno pokušavati
koncentrirati previše podataka
koncentrirati previše podataka
09:15
and too much power in one place.
143
543768
2759
i previše moći u jednom mjestu.
09:19
But it is not a law of nature
144
547244
4483
Ali to nije zakon prirode
09:23
that centralized data processing
is always less efficient
is always less efficient
145
551751
5604
da je centralizirana obrada podataka
uvijek manje učinkovita
uvijek manje učinkovita
09:29
than distributed data processing.
146
557379
2547
od distribuirane obrade podataka.
09:32
With the rise of artificial intelligence
and machine learning,
and machine learning,
147
560605
3437
Napretkom umjetne inteligencije
i strojnog učenja
i strojnog učenja
09:36
it might become feasible to process
enormous amounts of information
enormous amounts of information
148
564066
5837
možda postane izvodivo obrađivati
ogromne količine informacija
ogromne količine informacija
09:41
very efficiently in one place,
149
569927
2610
vrlo učinkovito na jednom mjestu,
09:44
to take all the decisions in one place,
150
572561
3191
sve odluke donositi na jednom mjestu,
09:47
and then centralized data processing
will be more efficient
will be more efficient
151
575776
4420
i tada će centralizirana obrada podataka
biti učinkovitija
biti učinkovitija
09:52
than distributed data processing.
152
580220
2200
od distribuirane obrade podataka.
09:55
And then the main handicap
of authoritarian regimes
of authoritarian regimes
153
583053
3760
I onda će glavni nedostatak
autoritarnih režima
autoritarnih režima
09:58
in the 20th century --
154
586837
1637
u 20. stoljeću --
10:00
their attempt to concentrate
all the information in one place --
all the information in one place --
155
588498
4516
njihov pokušaj da koncentriraju
sve informacije na jednom mjestu --
sve informacije na jednom mjestu --
10:05
it will become their greatest advantage.
156
593038
3366
postati njihova najveća prednost.
10:10
Another technological danger
that threatens the future of democracy
that threatens the future of democracy
157
598768
4907
Druga tehnološka opasnost
koja prijeti budućnosti demokracije
koja prijeti budućnosti demokracije
10:15
is the merger of information technology
with biotechnology,
with biotechnology,
158
603699
5159
jest udruživanje informacijske tehnologije
sa biotehnologijom,
sa biotehnologijom,
10:20
which might result
in the creation of algorithms
in the creation of algorithms
159
608882
4005
što bi moglo rezultirati
u stvaranju algoritama
u stvaranju algoritama
10:24
that know me better than I know myself.
160
612911
4316
koje me poznaju bolje od mene samog.
10:29
And once you have such algorithms,
161
617688
2080
A jednom kada imate takve algoritme,
10:31
an external system, like the government,
162
619792
2849
vanjski sustav, poput vlade,
10:34
cannot just predict my decisions,
163
622665
3524
ne samo da može predvidjeti moje odluke,
10:38
it can also manipulate
my feelings, my emotions.
my feelings, my emotions.
164
626213
3921
već može i manipulirati
mojim osjećajima, mojim emocijama.
mojim osjećajima, mojim emocijama.
10:42
A dictator may not be able
to provide me with good health care,
to provide me with good health care,
165
630641
5245
Diktator možda neće biti u stanju
osigurati dobru zdravstvenu skrb,
osigurati dobru zdravstvenu skrb,
10:47
but he will be able to make me love him
166
635910
3373
ali će biti u stanju
postići da ga volim
postići da ga volim
10:51
and to make me hate the opposition.
167
639307
2667
i da mrzim opoziciju.
10:55
Democracy will find it difficult
to survive such a development
to survive such a development
168
643037
5463
Demokraciji će biti teško
preživjeti takav razvoj
preživjeti takav razvoj
11:00
because, in the end,
169
648524
2150
jer, na koncu,
11:02
democracy is not based
on human rationality;
on human rationality;
170
650698
4127
demokracija se ne bazira
na ljudskoj racionalnosti;
na ljudskoj racionalnosti;
11:06
it's based on human feelings.
171
654849
2420
ona se bazira na ljudskim osjećajima.
11:10
During elections and referendums,
172
658355
2500
Za vrijeme izbora ili referenduma
11:12
you're not being asked,
"What do you think?"
"What do you think?"
173
660879
2696
ne pitaju vas, "Što mislite?"
11:15
You're actually being asked,
"How do you feel?"
"How do you feel?"
174
663998
3396
Vas zapravo pitaju, "Kako se osjećate?"
11:20
And if somebody can manipulate
your emotions effectively,
your emotions effectively,
175
668228
4627
A ako netko može učinkovito
manipulirati vašim osjećajima,
manipulirati vašim osjećajima,
11:24
democracy will become
an emotional puppet show.
an emotional puppet show.
176
672879
3753
demokracija će postati
emocionalna lutkarska predstava.
emocionalna lutkarska predstava.
11:30
So what can we do to prevent
the return of fascism
the return of fascism
177
678006
4515
Što, dakle, možemo mi učiniti
da spriječimo povratak fašizma
da spriječimo povratak fašizma
11:34
and the rise of new dictatorships?
178
682545
2650
i pojavu novih diktatura?
11:37
The number one question that we face
is: Who controls the data?
is: Who controls the data?
179
685990
6310
Pitanje broj jedan s kojim se suočavamo
je: Tko kontrolira podatke?
je: Tko kontrolira podatke?
11:44
If you are an engineer,
180
692823
1675
Ako ste inženjer,
11:46
then find ways to prevent too much data
181
694522
3968
onda nađite načine da spriječite
da previše podataka
da previše podataka
11:50
from being concentrated in too few hands.
182
698514
2825
bude koncentrirano u premalo ruku.
11:53
And find ways to make sure
183
701752
2944
I nađite načine da osigurate
11:56
the distributed data processing
is at least as efficient
is at least as efficient
184
704720
4413
da je distribuirana obrada podataka
u najmanju ruku jednako učinkovita
u najmanju ruku jednako učinkovita
12:01
as centralized data processing.
185
709157
2396
kao centralizirana obrada podataka.
12:04
This will be the best
safeguard for democracy.
safeguard for democracy.
186
712077
3841
To će biti najbolja zaštita demokracije.
12:07
As for the rest of us
who are not engineers,
who are not engineers,
187
715942
3326
Što se tiče nas ostalih,
koji nismo inženjeri,
koji nismo inženjeri,
12:11
the number one question facing us
188
719292
3444
prvo pitanje s kojim se mi suočavamo
12:14
is how not to allow
ourselves to be manipulated
ourselves to be manipulated
189
722760
4647
jeste kako da ne dozvolimo
da budemo manipulirani
da budemo manipulirani
12:19
by those who control the data.
190
727431
2806
od onih koji kontroliraju podatke.
12:23
The enemies of liberal democracy,
they have a method.
they have a method.
191
731387
4106
Neprijatelji liberalnih demokracija,
oni imaju metodu.
oni imaju metodu.
12:27
They hack our feelings.
192
735919
2372
Oni hakiraju naše osjećaje.
12:30
Not our emails, not our bank accounts --
193
738315
2452
Ne naše emailove,
ne naše bankovne račune --
ne naše bankovne račune --
12:32
they hack our feelings of fear
and hate and vanity,
and hate and vanity,
194
740791
5207
oni hakiraju naše osjećaje
straha i mržnje i sujete
straha i mržnje i sujete
12:38
and then use these feelings
195
746022
2428
i onda te osjećaje koriste
12:40
to polarize and destroy
democracy from within.
democracy from within.
196
748474
3952
za polarizaciju i uništavanje
demokracije iznutra.
demokracije iznutra.
12:44
This is actually a method
197
752903
1920
To je zapravo metoda
12:46
that Silicon Valley pioneered
in order to sell us products.
in order to sell us products.
198
754847
5049
koju je prva uvela Silikonska dolina
kako bi nam prodala proizvode.
kako bi nam prodala proizvode.
12:52
But now, the enemies of democracy
are using this very method
are using this very method
199
760381
5022
Ali sada, neprijatelji demokracije
koriste tu istu metodu
koriste tu istu metodu
12:57
to sell us fear and hate and vanity.
200
765427
3724
da nam prodaju strah i mržnju i sujetu.
13:01
They cannot create
these feelings out of nothing.
these feelings out of nothing.
201
769863
3659
Oni te osjećaje ne mogu
stvoriti iz ničega.
stvoriti iz ničega.
13:06
So they get to know our own
preexisting weaknesses.
preexisting weaknesses.
202
774212
3831
Zato nastoje upoznati naše
vlastite prvobitne slabosti
vlastite prvobitne slabosti
13:10
And then use them against us.
203
778403
2571
i onda ih iskoristiti protiv nas.
13:13
And it is therefore
the responsibility of all of us
the responsibility of all of us
204
781482
3508
Zbog toga je odgovornost svih nas
13:17
to get to know our weaknesses
205
785014
2634
da spoznamo svoje slabosti
13:19
and make sure that they
do not become a weapon
do not become a weapon
206
787672
3635
i potrudimo se da one ne postanu oružje
13:23
in the hands of the enemies of democracy.
207
791331
2883
u rukama neprijatelja demokracije.
13:27
Getting to know our own weaknesses
208
795315
2548
Spoznavanje vlastitih slabosti
13:29
will also help us to avoid the trap
of the fascist mirror.
of the fascist mirror.
209
797887
5583
pomoći će nam također da izbjegnemo
zamku fašističkog ogledala.
zamku fašističkog ogledala.
13:36
As we explained earlier,
fascism exploits our vanity.
fascism exploits our vanity.
210
804204
4151
Kao što smo ranije objasnili,
fažizam eksploatira našu sujetu.
fažizam eksploatira našu sujetu.
13:40
It makes us see ourselves
as far more beautiful than we really are.
as far more beautiful than we really are.
211
808805
5746
On čini da sebe vidimo daleko ljepšima
no što stvarno jesmo.
no što stvarno jesmo.
13:46
This is the seduction.
212
814575
1467
To je zavođenje.
13:48
But if you really know yourself,
213
816424
2447
No, ako stvarno poznajete sebe,
13:50
you will not fall
for this kind of flattery.
for this kind of flattery.
214
818895
3468
tada nećete pasti na ovu vrstu laskanja.
13:54
If somebody puts a mirror
in front of your eyes
in front of your eyes
215
822879
4063
Ako vam netko pred oči postavi ogledalo
13:58
that hides all your ugly bits
and makes you see yourself
and makes you see yourself
216
826966
5060
koje skriva sve vaše ružne komadiće
i čini da sebe vidite
i čini da sebe vidite
14:04
as far more beautiful
and far more important
and far more important
217
832050
4284
daleko ljepšim i daleko važnijim
14:08
than you really are,
218
836358
1591
no što ustvari jeste,
14:09
just break that mirror.
219
837973
2864
jednostavno razbijte to ogledalo.
14:13
Thank you.
220
841696
1151
Hvala.
14:14
(Applause)
221
842871
6382
(Pljesak)
14:22
Chris Anderson: Yuval, thank you.
222
850677
1632
Chris Anderson: Yuval, hvala vam.
14:24
Goodness me.
223
852333
1151
Moj bože!
14:25
It's so nice to see you again.
224
853958
1940
Tako je lijepo vidjeti vas ponovo.
14:27
So, if I understand you right,
225
855922
1591
Dakle, ako sam vas dobro razumio,
14:29
you're alerting us
to two big dangers here.
to two big dangers here.
226
857537
2667
vi nas ovdje upozoravate
na dvije velike opasnosti.
na dvije velike opasnosti.
14:32
One is the possible resurgence
of a seductive form of fascism,
of a seductive form of fascism,
227
860228
4492
Jedna je moguće ponovno oživljavanje
zavodljivog oblika fašizma,
zavodljivog oblika fašizma,
14:36
but close to that, dictatorships
that may not exactly be fascistic,
that may not exactly be fascistic,
228
864744
4254
no, povezano s tim, diktatura
koje ne moraju biti baš fašističke,
koje ne moraju biti baš fašističke,
14:41
but control all the data.
229
869022
2563
već kontroliraju sve podatke.
14:43
I wonder if there's a third concern
230
871609
2096
Pitam se postoji li treća zabrinutost
14:45
that some people here
have already expressed,
have already expressed,
231
873729
2118
koju se neki ljudi ovdje već izrazili,
14:47
which is where, not governments,
but big corporations control all our data.
but big corporations control all our data.
232
875871
4897
slučaj kada, ne vlade, nego velike
korporacije kontroliraju sve podatke.
korporacije kontroliraju sve podatke.
14:52
What do you call that,
233
880792
1309
Kako vi to nazivate
14:54
and how worried should we be about that?
234
882125
2387
i koliko moramo biti zabrinuti
u vezi s tim?
u vezi s tim?
14:56
Yuval Noah Harari: Well, in the end,
there isn't such a big difference
there isn't such a big difference
235
884536
3339
Yuval Noah Harari: Pa, na koncu,
nema tako velike razlike
nema tako velike razlike
14:59
between the corporations
and the governments,
and the governments,
236
887899
2426
između korporacija i vlada
15:02
because, as I said, the questions is:
Who controls the data?
Who controls the data?
237
890349
3420
jer, kao što sam rekao, pitanje je:
Tko kontrolira podatke?
Tko kontrolira podatke?
15:05
This is the real government.
238
893793
1395
To je prava vlada.
15:07
If you call it a corporation
or a government --
or a government --
239
895212
2444
Nazivate li to korporacijom ili vladom --
15:09
if it's a corporation
and it really controls the data,
and it really controls the data,
240
897680
3155
ako je to korporacija
i ona stvarno kontrolira podatke,
i ona stvarno kontrolira podatke,
15:12
this is our real government.
241
900859
1928
to je naša prava vlada.
15:14
So the difference
is more apparent than real.
is more apparent than real.
242
902811
3067
Dakle, razlika je više prividna
nego stvarna.
nego stvarna.
15:18
CA: But somehow,
at least with corporations,
at least with corporations,
243
906529
2858
CA: Ali nekako,
bar u slučaju korporacija,
bar u slučaju korporacija,
15:21
you can imagine market mechanisms
where they can be taken down.
where they can be taken down.
244
909411
3519
možete zamisliti tržišne mehanizme
kojima se one mogu srušiti.
kojima se one mogu srušiti.
15:24
I mean, if consumers just decide
245
912954
1917
Mislim, ako potrošači odluče
15:26
that the company is no longer
operating in their interest,
operating in their interest,
246
914895
2754
da kompanija više ne radi
u njihovom interesu,
u njihovom interesu,
15:29
it does open the door to another market.
247
917673
1913
to otvara vrata jednom drugom tržištu.
15:31
It seems easier to imagine that
248
919610
1546
Naizgled je lakše zamisliti to
15:33
than, say, citizens rising up
and taking down a government
and taking down a government
249
921180
3151
nego, recimo, građane koji ustaju
i ruše vladu
i ruše vladu
15:36
that is in control of everything.
250
924355
1612
koji ima kontrolu nad svime.
15:37
YNH: Well, we are not there yet,
251
925991
1555
YNH: Pa nismo još dotle stigli,
15:39
but again, if a corporation really
knows you better than you know yourself --
knows you better than you know yourself --
252
927570
5158
ali, ponovo, ako vas korporacija stvarno
poznaje bolje no što vi poznajete sebe --
poznaje bolje no što vi poznajete sebe --
15:44
at least that it can manipulate
your own deepest emotions and desires,
your own deepest emotions and desires,
253
932752
5254
u najmanju ruku ona može manipulirati
vašim najdubljim emocijama i željama,
vašim najdubljim emocijama i željama,
15:50
and you won't even realize --
254
938030
1666
a vi to čak nećete ni znati --
15:51
you will think this is
your authentic self.
your authentic self.
255
939720
2579
mislit ćete da je to
vaša autentična ličnost.
vaša autentična ličnost.
15:54
So in theory, yes, in theory,
you can rise against a corporation,
you can rise against a corporation,
256
942768
4055
Zato u teoriji, da, u teoriji,
možete se dignuti protiv korporacija,
možete se dignuti protiv korporacija,
15:58
just as, in theory, you can rise
against a dictatorship.
against a dictatorship.
257
946847
3733
kao što se u teoriji možete
dignuti protiv diktature.
dignuti protiv diktature.
16:02
But in practice,
it is extremely difficult.
it is extremely difficult.
258
950982
3283
Ali u praksi je to izuzetno teško.
16:07
CA: So in "Homo Deus," you argue
that this would be the century
that this would be the century
259
955281
4082
CA: U "Homo Deusu" vi tvrdite
da će ovo biti stoljeće
da će ovo biti stoljeće
16:11
when humans kind of became gods,
260
959387
3411
kada ljudi na neki način postaju bogovi,
16:14
either through development
of artificial intelligence
of artificial intelligence
261
962822
2993
bilo putem razvoja umjetne inteligencije
16:17
or through genetic engineering.
262
965839
2929
ili putem genetskog inženjeringa.
16:20
Has this prospect of political
system shift, collapse
system shift, collapse
263
968792
5468
Da li je ta izglednost promjene
političkog sustava, kolapsa,
političkog sustava, kolapsa,
16:26
impacted your view on that possibility?
264
974284
2664
utjecala na vaš stav o toj mogućnosti?
16:29
YNH: Well, I think it makes it
even more likely,
even more likely,
265
977553
3095
YNH: Pa, ja mislim da je to čini
čak još vjerojatnijom
čak još vjerojatnijom
16:32
and more likely
that it will happen faster,
that it will happen faster,
266
980672
2929
i veća je vjerojatnost
da će se dogoditi brže,
da će se dogoditi brže,
16:35
because in times of crisis,
people are willing to take risks
people are willing to take risks
267
983625
5023
zato jer u vremenima krize
ljudi su spremni poduzimati rizike
ljudi su spremni poduzimati rizike
16:40
that they wouldn't otherwise take.
268
988672
1984
koje inače ne bi poduzimali.
16:42
And people are willing to try
269
990680
2818
I ljudi su spremni iskušati
16:45
all kinds of high-risk,
high-gain technologies.
high-gain technologies.
270
993522
3873
sve vrste visoko-rizičnih,
visoko-dobitnih tehnologija.
visoko-dobitnih tehnologija.
16:49
So these kinds of crises
might serve the same function
might serve the same function
271
997760
4230
Dakle, takve vrste kriza
možda mogu služiti istoj funkciji
možda mogu služiti istoj funkciji
16:54
as the two world wars in the 20th century.
272
1002014
3214
kao dva svjetska rata
u 20.-tom stoljeću.
u 20.-tom stoljeću.
16:57
The two world wars greatly accelerated
273
1005252
3212
Dva svjetska rata znatno su ubrzala
17:00
the development of new
and dangerous technologies.
and dangerous technologies.
274
1008488
3612
razvoj novih i opasnih tehnologija.
17:04
And the same thing might happen
in the 21st century.
in the 21st century.
275
1012124
3284
A ista stvar bi se mogla dogoditi
u 21. stoljeću.
u 21. stoljeću.
17:07
I mean, you need to be
a little crazy to run too fast,
a little crazy to run too fast,
276
1015721
3897
Mislim, morate biti pomalo ludi
da prebrzo jurite,
da prebrzo jurite,
17:11
let's say, with genetic engineering.
277
1019642
2325
recimo, s genetskim inženjeringom.
17:13
But now you have more
and more crazy people
and more crazy people
278
1021991
3110
Ali danas imate sve
više i više ludih ljudi
više i više ludih ljudi
17:17
in charge of different
countries in the world,
countries in the world,
279
1025125
2681
koji vode različite zemlje u svijetu,
17:19
so the chances are getting
higher, not lower.
higher, not lower.
280
1027830
3067
pa su šanse sve veće, a ne manje.
CA: Pa, uzevši sve to zajedno, Yuval,
vi imate tu jedinstvenu viziju.
vi imate tu jedinstvenu viziju.
17:23
CA: So, putting it all together, Yuval,
you've got this unique vision.
you've got this unique vision.
281
1031647
3365
Pomaknimo sat 30 godina unaprijed.
17:27
Roll the clock forward 30 years.
282
1035036
1587
17:28
What's your guess --
does humanity just somehow scrape through,
does humanity just somehow scrape through,
283
1036647
3263
Što vi mislite --
hoće li se čovječanstvo nekako izvući,
hoće li se čovječanstvo nekako izvući,
17:31
look back and say, "Wow,
that was a close thing. We did it!"
that was a close thing. We did it!"
284
1039934
3135
pogledati unazad i reći, "Vau,
to je bilo blizu. Uspjeli smo!"
to je bilo blizu. Uspjeli smo!"
17:35
Or not?
285
1043093
1436
Ili ne?
17:36
YNH: So far, we've managed
to overcome all the previous crises.
to overcome all the previous crises.
286
1044553
3848
YNH: Do sada smo uspjeli
prevladati sve prethodne krize.
prevladati sve prethodne krize.
17:40
And especially if you look
at liberal democracy
at liberal democracy
287
1048425
2819
A pogotovo ako pogledate
liberalnu demokraciju
liberalnu demokraciju
17:43
and you think things are bad now,
288
1051268
2944
i mislite da su stvari sada loše,
17:46
just remember how much worse
things looked in 1938 or in 1968.
things looked in 1938 or in 1968.
289
1054236
6466
samo se sjetite koliko su gore
stvari izgledale 1938. ili 1968. godine.
stvari izgledale 1938. ili 1968. godine.
17:52
So this is really nothing,
this is just a small crisis.
this is just a small crisis.
290
1060726
2991
Dakle, ovo stvarno nije ništa,
ovo je samo mala kriza.
ovo je samo mala kriza.
17:56
But you can never know,
291
1064167
1969
Ali nikad se ne zna,
17:58
because, as a historian,
292
1066160
2131
jer, kao povjesničar znam
18:00
I know that you should never
underestimate human stupidity.
underestimate human stupidity.
293
1068315
4774
da nikada ne smijete podcijeniti
ljudsku glupost.
ljudsku glupost.
18:05
(Laughter) (Applause)
294
1073113
1155
(Smijeh) (Pljesak)
18:06
It is one of the most powerful forces
that shape history.
that shape history.
295
1074292
4004
Ona je jedna od najmoćnijih sila
koje oblikuju povijest.
koje oblikuju povijest.
CA: Yuval, bio je apsolutni užitak
biti s vama.
biti s vama.
18:11
CA: Yuval, it's been an absolute delight
to have you with us.
to have you with us.
296
1079433
2865
Hvala vam što ste poduzeli
ovaj virtualni izlet.
ovaj virtualni izlet.
18:14
Thank you for making the virtual trip.
297
1082322
1817
18:16
Have a great evening there in Tel Aviv.
298
1084163
1873
Želim vam ugodno veče tamo u Tel Avivu.
18:18
Yuval Harari!
299
1086060
1151
Yuval Harari!
YNH: Mnogo vam hvala.
18:19
YNH: Thank you very much.
300
1087235
1376
18:20
(Applause)
301
1088635
1150
(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Yuval Noah Harari - Historian, authorIn his book "Homo Deus," Yuval Noah Harari explores the future of humankind: the destinies we may set for ourselves and the quests we'll undertake.
Why you should listen
In his book, Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow, Yuval Noah Harari explores the projects, dreams and nightmares that will shape the 21st century -- from overcoming death to creating artificial life. He maps the future and asks fundamental questions: Where do we go from here? How will we protect this fragile world from our own destructive powers? The book has sold four million copies since its publication in 2016.
Harari's previous book, Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind, explores what made homo sapiens the most successful species on the planet. His answer: We are the only animal that can believe in things that exist purely in our imagination, such as gods, states, money, human rights, corporations and other fictions, and we have developed a unique ability to use these stories to unify and organize groups and ensure cooperation. Sapiens has sold eight million copies and been translated into more than 50 languages. Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg and President Barack Obama have recommended it as a must-read.
Harari lectures as a Professor of history at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, where he specializes in world history, medieval history and military history. His current research focuses on macro-historical questions: What is the relationship between history and biology? What is the essential difference between Homo sapiens and other animals? Is there justice in history? Does history have a direction? Did people become happier as history unfolded? Harari has written for newspapers such as The Guardian, Financial Times, the Times, Nature magazine and the Wall Street Journal.
Harari's new book, 21 Lessons for the 21st Century, will take the pulse of our current global climate, focusing on the biggest questions of the present moment: What is really happening right now? What are today’s greatest challenges and choices? What should we pay attention to? The book will be published in multiple languages in September 2018.
Yuval Noah Harari | Speaker | TED.com