TED2018
Yuval Noah Harari: Why fascism is so tempting -- and how your data could power it
尤瓦爾諾亞哈拉瑞: 為什麼法西斯主義如此誘人？你的數據資料是如何助長它的？
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在這場關於科技和權力的深入演說當中，作家兼歷史學家尤瓦爾諾亞哈拉瑞解釋了法西斯主義和國家主義的重要差別，以及對於民主的未來而言，鞏固我們的資料有什麼意涵。哈拉瑞用全息影像的方式登場，從特拉維夫即時連線。他警告大家，現在自由民主所面臨最大的危險是資訊科技的革命。這會讓獨裁專政更有效率且更有控制權。他說：「自由民主的敵人會駭入我們的感受，如恐懼、仇恨和虛榮，會用這些感受從內部兩極化和摧毀民主。」「我們所有人都有責任要去了解我們的弱點，並確保這些弱點不會被民主的敵人拿來當作武器。」（影片最後有一段和 TED 策展人克里斯安德森的簡短對談。）
Yuval Noah Harari - Historian, author
In his book "Homo Deus," Yuval Noah Harari explores the future of humankind: the destinies we may set for ourselves and the quests we'll undertake. Full bio
In his book "Homo Deus," Yuval Noah Harari explores the future of humankind: the destinies we may set for ourselves and the quests we'll undertake. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Hello, everyone.
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哈囉，大家好。
00:15
It's a bit funny, because I did write
that humans will become digital,
that humans will become digital,
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這有點好笑，因為我的確寫過
人類將來會變成數位的，
人類將來會變成數位的，
00:20
but I didn't think it will happen so fast
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但我當時沒料到會這麼快發生，
00:23
and that it will happen to me.
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且發生在我身上。
00:25
But here I am, as a digital avatar,
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但我現在就以
數位人像的身份站在這裡，
數位人像的身份站在這裡，
00:28
and here you are, so let's start.
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你們也都就座了，所以開始吧。
00:32
And let's start with a question.
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咱們從一個問題開始。
00:34
How many fascists are there
in the audience today?
in the audience today?
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今天觀眾席中，
有多少人是法西斯主義者？
有多少人是法西斯主義者？
00:38
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
00:39
Well, it's a bit difficult to say,
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嗯，這有點難說，
00:42
because we've forgotten what fascism is.
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因為我們已忘了法西斯主義是什麼。
00:46
People now use the term "fascist"
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現代人使用「法西斯主義的」一詞
00:49
as a kind of general-purpose abuse.
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通常是指某種一般性目的的傷害。
00:52
Or they confuse fascism with nationalism.
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或是他們把法西斯主義
和國家主義搞混了。
和國家主義搞混了。
00:56
So let's take a few minutes
to clarify what fascism actually is,
to clarify what fascism actually is,
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所以，咱們先花幾分鐘時間，
澄清一下法西斯主義到底是什麼，
澄清一下法西斯主義到底是什麼，
01:02
and how it is different from nationalism.
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以及它和國家主義有什麼不同。
01:05
The milder forms of nationalism
have been among the most benevolent
have been among the most benevolent
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國家主義的溫和形式
一直都是人類最仁慈的產物之一。
01:10
of human creations.
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01:12
Nations are communities
of millions of strangers
of millions of strangers
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國家就是數百萬名陌生人
所組成的共同體，
所組成的共同體，
01:17
who don't really know each other.
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這些人並不認識彼此。
01:19
For example, I don't know
the eight million people
the eight million people
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比如，我並不認識另外八百萬名
01:22
who share my Israeli citizenship.
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擁有以色列公民身份的人。
01:26
But thanks to nationalism,
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但多虧了國家主義，
01:28
we can all care about one another
and cooperate effectively.
and cooperate effectively.
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我們都在乎彼此，並能有效地合作。
01:32
This is very good.
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這是非常好的。
01:34
Some people, like John Lennon,
imagine that without nationalism,
imagine that without nationalism,
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像約翰藍儂（John Lennon），
有些人臆測若沒有國家主義，
有些人臆測若沒有國家主義，
01:39
the world will be a peaceful paradise.
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世界會是個和平的天堂。
01:44
But far more likely,
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但更有可能的是，
01:45
without nationalism,
we would have been living in tribal chaos.
we would have been living in tribal chaos.
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若沒有國家主義，
我們會生活在部落的混亂中。
我們會生活在部落的混亂中。
01:50
If you look today at the most prosperous
and peaceful countries in the world,
and peaceful countries in the world,
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如果你們想想看現今世界上
最繁榮、和平的國家，
最繁榮、和平的國家，
01:55
countries like Sweden
and Switzerland and Japan,
and Switzerland and Japan,
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比如瑞典、瑞士和日本，
02:00
you will see that they have
a very strong sense of nationalism.
a very strong sense of nationalism.
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就會發現它們都有
很強的國家主義感。
很強的國家主義感。
02:05
In contrast, countries that lack
a strong sense of nationalism,
a strong sense of nationalism,
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相對地，缺乏強烈
國家主義感的國家，
國家主義感的國家，
02:09
like Congo and Somalia and Afghanistan,
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比如剛果、索馬利亞，及阿富汗，
02:13
tend to be violent and poor.
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都傾向較暴力和貧窮。
02:16
So what is fascism, and how
is it different from nationalism?
is it different from nationalism?
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所以，法西斯主義是什麼？
它和國家主義有什麼不同？
它和國家主義有什麼不同？
02:21
Well, nationalism tells me
that my nation is unique,
that my nation is unique,
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嗯，國家主義告訴我，
我的國家是獨一無二的，
我的國家是獨一無二的，
02:27
and that I have special obligations
towards my nation.
towards my nation.
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且我對於我的國家負有特殊的義務。
02:31
Fascism, in contrast, tells me
that my nation is supreme,
that my nation is supreme,
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相對地，法西斯主義告訴我，
我的國家是優越的，
我的國家是優越的，
02:37
and that I have exclusive
obligations towards it.
obligations towards it.
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且我對於我國家的義務是唯一的。
02:42
I don't need to care about anybody
or anything other than my nation.
or anything other than my nation.
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我只需要在乎我的國家，
其他人事物都不重要。
其他人事物都不重要。
02:48
Usually, of course,
people have many identities
people have many identities
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當然，通常人對於不同的群體會有
02:52
and loyalties to different groups.
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許多不同的身份和忠誠度。
02:55
For example, I can be a good patriot,
loyal to my country,
loyal to my country,
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比如，我可能是個愛國者，
對我的國家很忠誠，
對我的國家很忠誠，
02:59
and at the same time,
be loyal to my family,
be loyal to my family,
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同時，我也忠於我的家庭、
03:03
my neighborhood, my profession,
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我的鄰里、我的職業、
03:05
humankind as a whole,
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全體人類、
03:06
truth and beauty.
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真相以及美好。
03:09
Of course, when I have different
identities and loyalties,
identities and loyalties,
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當然，當我有
不同的身份和忠誠度時，
不同的身份和忠誠度時，
03:13
it sometimes creates conflicts
and complications.
and complications.
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有時就會產生出衝突和複雜。
03:17
But, well, who ever told you
that life was easy?
that life was easy?
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但，誰說人生是容易的呢？
03:21
Life is complicated.
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人生是複雜的。
03:23
Deal with it.
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想辦法處理它。
03:26
Fascism is what happens when people try
to ignore the complications
to ignore the complications
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法西斯主義之所以會發生，
就是因為人們試圖忽略複雜，
就是因為人們試圖忽略複雜，
03:32
and to make life too easy for themselves.
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把他們自己的人生變得太輕鬆簡單。
03:36
Fascism denies all identities
except the national identity
except the national identity
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法西斯主義否認
國家身份以外的所有身份，
國家身份以外的所有身份，
03:41
and insists that I have obligations
only towards my nation.
only towards my nation.
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並堅持我只對我的國家有義務。
03:47
If my nation demands
that I sacrifice my family,
that I sacrifice my family,
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如果我的國家需要我犧牲我的家人，
03:51
then I will sacrifice my family.
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我就會犧牲我的家人。
03:54
If the nation demands
that I kill millions of people,
that I kill millions of people,
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如果國家需要我殺掉數百萬個人，
03:58
then I will kill millions of people.
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我就會殺掉數百萬個人。
04:01
And if my nation demands
that I betray truth and beauty,
that I betray truth and beauty,
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如果我的國家需要我
背叛真相和美好，
背叛真相和美好，
04:07
then I should betray truth and beauty.
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我就該背叛真相和美好。
04:11
For example, how does
a fascist evaluate art?
a fascist evaluate art?
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比如，法西斯主義者
要如何評鑑藝術？
要如何評鑑藝術？
04:16
How does a fascist decide whether a movie
is a good movie or a bad movie?
is a good movie or a bad movie?
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法西斯主義者要如何
決定一部電影的優劣？
決定一部電影的優劣？
04:22
Well, it's very, very, very simple.
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答案非常、非常、非常簡單。
04:27
There is really just one yardstick:
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衡量標準只有一種：
04:29
if the movie serves
the interests of the nation,
the interests of the nation,
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如果電影是為國家的利益著想，
04:33
it's a good movie;
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它就是部好電影；
04:34
if the movie doesn't serve
the interests of the nation,
the interests of the nation,
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如果電影沒有為國家的利益著想，
04:37
it's a bad movie.
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它就是部爛電影。
04:39
That's it.
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就這樣。
04:40
Similarly, how does a fascist decide
what to teach kids in school?
what to teach kids in school?
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同樣地，法西斯主義者要如何
決定在學校要教孩子什麼內容？
決定在學校要教孩子什麼內容？
04:45
Again, it's very simple.
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答案也非常簡單。
04:47
There is just one yardstick:
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衡量標準只有一種：
04:49
you teach the kids whatever serves
the interests of the nation.
the interests of the nation.
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不論你教孩子什麼，
只要對國家有利就對了。
只要對國家有利就對了。
04:55
The truth doesn't matter at all.
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真相完全不重要。
05:00
Now, the horrors of the Second World War
and of the Holocaust remind us
and of the Holocaust remind us
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二次大戰和大屠殺的恐怖，
讓我們想起
讓我們想起
05:05
of the terrible consequences
of this way of thinking.
of this way of thinking.
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這種思維方式的可怖後果。
05:10
But usually, when we talk
about the ills of fascism,
about the ills of fascism,
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但通常，當我們談到
法西斯主義的不好之處時，
法西斯主義的不好之處時，
05:15
we do so in an ineffective way,
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我們會用無效的方式來談，
05:18
because we tend to depict fascism
as a hideous monster,
as a hideous monster,
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因為我們傾向會把法西斯主義
描繪成一隻可怕的怪獸，
描繪成一隻可怕的怪獸，
05:22
without really explaining
what was so seductive about it.
what was so seductive about it.
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而不會真正去解釋
它有什麼誘人之處。
它有什麼誘人之處。
05:27
It's a bit like these Hollywood movies
that depict the bad guys --
that depict the bad guys --
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這就有點像好萊塢電影
描繪這些反派的方式——
描繪這些反派的方式——
05:32
Voldemort or Sauron
or Darth Vader --
or Darth Vader --
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佛地魔、索倫，或達斯維德——
05:36
as ugly and mean and cruel.
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醜陋、卑鄙，且殘酷。
05:38
They're cruel even
to their own supporters.
to their own supporters.
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他們甚至對自己的支持者也很殘酷。
05:41
When I see these movies,
I never understand --
I never understand --
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當我看這些電影時，
我始終無法理解，
我始終無法理解，
05:45
why would anybody be tempted to follow
a disgusting creep like Voldemort?
a disgusting creep like Voldemort?
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為什麼會有人被誘惑去追隨
佛地魔這種讓人討厭的卑鄙小人？
佛地魔這種讓人討厭的卑鄙小人？
05:52
The problem with evil
is that in real life,
is that in real life,
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邪惡的問題在於，在真實生活中，
05:56
evil doesn't necessarily look ugly.
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邪惡的外表不見得是醜陋的。
05:59
It can look very beautiful.
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它可能看起來十分美好。
06:02
This is something that
Christianity knew very well,
Christianity knew very well,
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基督教就非常清楚知道這一點，
06:05
which is why in Christian art,
as [opposed to] Hollywood,
as [opposed to] Hollywood,
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這就是為什麼基督教藝術
和好萊塢相反，
和好萊塢相反，
06:08
Satan is usually depicted
as a gorgeous hunk.
as a gorgeous hunk.
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撒旦通常被描繪成
英俊且性感的男人。
英俊且性感的男人。
06:13
This is why it's so difficult
to resist the temptations of Satan,
to resist the temptations of Satan,
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那就是為什麼要拒絕
撒旦的誘惑是很困難的，
撒旦的誘惑是很困難的，
06:17
and why it is also difficult
to resist the temptations of fascism.
to resist the temptations of fascism.
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也是為什麼要拒絕
法西斯主義的誘惑也很困難。
法西斯主義的誘惑也很困難。
06:22
Fascism makes people see themselves
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法西斯主義讓人們
能夠感受到他們自己
能夠感受到他們自己
06:25
as belonging to the most beautiful
and most important thing in the world --
and most important thing in the world --
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隸屬於世界上最美好、
最重要的東西——
最重要的東西——
06:30
the nation.
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國家。
06:32
And then people think,
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接著，人們會想：
06:33
"Well, they taught us
that fascism is ugly.
that fascism is ugly.
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「嗯，他們教我們
法西斯主義是醜陋的。
法西斯主義是醜陋的。
06:37
But when I look in the mirror,
I see something very beautiful,
I see something very beautiful,
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但當我看向鏡子，
我看到的卻是美好的東西，
我看到的卻是美好的東西，
06:40
so I can't be a fascist, right?"
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所以我不可能是法西斯主義者吧？」
06:43
Wrong.
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錯。
06:44
That's the problem with fascism.
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那就是法西斯主義的問題。
06:45
When you look in the fascist mirror,
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當你看向法西斯主義的鏡子，
06:48
you see yourself as far more beautiful
than you really are.
than you really are.
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你看見的自己，
比實際上的還要美麗許多。
比實際上的還要美麗許多。
06:53
In the 1930s, when Germans
looked in the fascist mirror,
looked in the fascist mirror,
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在 30 年代，當德國人
看向法西斯主義的鏡子時，
看向法西斯主義的鏡子時，
06:57
they saw Germany as the most
beautiful thing in the world.
beautiful thing in the world.
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他們看到的是：
德國是世界上最美好的東西。
德國是世界上最美好的東西。
07:02
If today, Russians look
in the fascist mirror,
in the fascist mirror,
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換到現今，若俄國人
看向法西斯主義的鏡子，
看向法西斯主義的鏡子，
07:05
they will see Russia as the most
beautiful thing in the world.
beautiful thing in the world.
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他們會看到：
俄國是世界上最美好的東西。
俄國是世界上最美好的東西。
07:09
And if Israelis look
in the fascist mirror,
in the fascist mirror,
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如果以色列人看向
法西斯主義的鏡子，
法西斯主義的鏡子，
07:12
they will see Israel as the most
beautiful thing in the world.
beautiful thing in the world.
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他們會看到：
以色列是世界上最美好的東西。
以色列是世界上最美好的東西。
07:18
This does not mean that we are now
facing a rerun of the 1930s.
facing a rerun of the 1930s.
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這並不表示我們現在
面臨到 30 年代的重演。
面臨到 30 年代的重演。
07:24
Fascism and dictatorships might come back,
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法西斯主義和獨裁專政
有可能會回來，
有可能會回來，
07:27
but they will come back in a new form,
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但它們會以新的形式回來，
07:31
a form which is much more relevant
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這個新的形式會和 21 世紀的
07:33
to the new technological realities
of the 21st century.
of the 21st century.
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新技術現實有更多更高的相關性。
07:38
In ancient times,
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在古代的時候，
07:40
land was the most important
asset in the world.
asset in the world.
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土地是世界上最重要的資產。
07:44
Politics, therefore,
was the struggle to control land.
was the struggle to control land.
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因此，政治都是
在努力試圖控制土地。
在努力試圖控制土地。
07:49
And dictatorship meant that all the land
was owned by a single ruler
was owned by a single ruler
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獨裁專政就表示所有的土地
都屬於單一統治者
都屬於單一統治者
07:55
or by a small oligarch.
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或一個寡頭政治集團。
07:57
And in the modern age,
machines became more important than land.
machines became more important than land.
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在近代，機器變得比土地更重要。
08:03
Politics became the struggle
to control the machines.
to control the machines.
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政治就變成是在努力控制機器。
08:07
And dictatorship meant
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而獨裁專政意味著
08:09
that too many of the machines
became concentrated
became concentrated
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太多機器都被集中
08:13
in the hands of the government
or of a small elite.
or of a small elite.
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在政府或少數菁英團體的手中。
08:17
Now data is replacing
both land and machines
both land and machines
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現在，資料數據取代了土地和機器，
08:21
as the most important asset.
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成為最重要的資產。
08:24
Politics becomes the struggle
to control the flows of data.
to control the flows of data.
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政治變成在努力控制資料流。
08:29
And dictatorship now means
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而現在的獨裁專政意味著
08:32
that too much data is being concentrated
in the hands of the government
in the hands of the government
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太多數據資料集中在政府或少數
08:38
or of a small elite.
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菁英團體的手中，
08:40
The greatest danger
that now faces liberal democracy
that now faces liberal democracy
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現在，自由民主要面對的最大危險
08:45
is that the revolution
in information technology
in information technology
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就是資訊科技的革命
08:49
will make dictatorships
more efficient than democracies.
more efficient than democracies.
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將會讓獨裁政權變得比民主更有效。
08:54
In the 20th century,
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在 20 世紀，
08:56
democracy and capitalism
defeated fascism and communism
defeated fascism and communism
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民主和資本主義打敗了
法西斯主義和共產主義，
法西斯主義和共產主義，
09:01
because democracy was better
at processing data and making decisions.
at processing data and making decisions.
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因為民主比較擅長
處理數據和做決策。
處理數據和做決策。
09:07
Given 20th-century technology,
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以 20 世紀的科技，
09:09
it was simply inefficient to try
and concentrate too much data
and concentrate too much data
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如果要把太多數據資料
和太多權力集中在一個地方，
和太多權力集中在一個地方，
09:15
and too much power in one place.
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實在是太沒效益了。
09:19
But it is not a law of nature
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但，自然的法則並沒有說
09:23
that centralized data processing
is always less efficient
is always less efficient
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集中化的數據資料處理
就一定比分散式
就一定比分散式
09:29
than distributed data processing.
146
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2547
更沒效益。
09:32
With the rise of artificial intelligence
and machine learning,
and machine learning,
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隨著人工智慧與機器學習的興起，
09:36
it might become feasible to process
enormous amounts of information
enormous amounts of information
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或許會可以在單一個地方
有效率地處理大量的資訊，
09:41
very efficiently in one place,
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2610
09:44
to take all the decisions in one place,
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在單一個地方做所有的決策，
09:47
and then centralized data processing
will be more efficient
will be more efficient
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那麼，集中式的資料處理
就會比分散式的更有效益。
09:52
than distributed data processing.
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09:55
And then the main handicap
of authoritarian regimes
of authoritarian regimes
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那麼，在 20 世紀，
權力主義政體的主要不利條件——
09:58
in the 20th century --
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1637
10:00
their attempt to concentrate
all the information in one place --
all the information in one place --
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4516
這些政體試圖將所有資訊
集中在一個地方——
集中在一個地方——
10:05
it will become their greatest advantage.
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3366
就會變成它們最大的優勢。
10:10
Another technological danger
that threatens the future of democracy
that threatens the future of democracy
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還有另一項科技危險，
會威脅到民主的未來，
會威脅到民主的未來，
10:15
is the merger of information technology
with biotechnology,
with biotechnology,
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5159
那就是資訊科技和生物科技的合併，
10:20
which might result
in the creation of algorithms
in the creation of algorithms
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4005
這可能會創造出一種演算法，
10:24
that know me better than I know myself.
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能比我自己更了解我。
10:29
And once you have such algorithms,
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一旦有這種演算法，
10:31
an external system, like the government,
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一個外部系統，比如政府，
10:34
cannot just predict my decisions,
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就不只是能預測我的決策，
10:38
it can also manipulate
my feelings, my emotions.
my feelings, my emotions.
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它也能操控我的感受和情緒。
10:42
A dictator may not be able
to provide me with good health care,
to provide me with good health care,
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5245
獨裁者也許無法提供我
好的健康照護，
好的健康照護，
10:47
but he will be able to make me love him
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但他能使我愛他，
10:51
and to make me hate the opposition.
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而且痛恨反對派。
10:55
Democracy will find it difficult
to survive such a development
to survive such a development
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在這樣的發展下，民主很難生存，
11:00
because, in the end,
169
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2150
因為，到頭來，
11:02
democracy is not based
on human rationality;
on human rationality;
170
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4127
民主的基礎並不是人類的理性；
11:06
it's based on human feelings.
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而是人類的感受。
11:10
During elections and referendums,
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在選舉和公民投票中，
11:12
you're not being asked,
"What do you think?"
"What do you think?"
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你不會被問到：「你認為如何？」
11:15
You're actually being asked,
"How do you feel?"
"How do you feel?"
174
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3396
你會被問到：「你感覺如何？」
11:20
And if somebody can manipulate
your emotions effectively,
your emotions effectively,
175
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4627
若有人能夠有效地操控你的情緒，
11:24
democracy will become
an emotional puppet show.
an emotional puppet show.
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3753
民主就會變成一場情緒傀儡劇。
11:30
So what can we do to prevent
the return of fascism
the return of fascism
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4515
所以，我們能做什麼，
來預防法西斯主義的再現，
來預防法西斯主義的再現，
11:34
and the rise of new dictatorships?
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2650
以及新獨裁主義的興起？
11:37
The number one question that we face
is: Who controls the data?
is: Who controls the data?
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6310
我們最先面臨的問題
是誰控制著數據資料？
是誰控制著數據資料？
11:44
If you are an engineer,
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如果你是工程師，
11:46
then find ways to prevent too much data
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3968
那麼就想辦法來預防太多數據
11:50
from being concentrated in too few hands.
182
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2825
被集中在太少數人手中。
11:53
And find ways to make sure
183
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2944
並想辦法確保
11:56
the distributed data processing
is at least as efficient
is at least as efficient
184
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4413
分散式資料處理
至少要和集中式一樣有效益。
12:01
as centralized data processing.
185
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2396
12:04
This will be the best
safeguard for democracy.
safeguard for democracy.
186
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3841
這會是民主的最佳防衛。
12:07
As for the rest of us
who are not engineers,
who are not engineers,
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至於不是工程師的其他人，
12:11
the number one question facing us
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3444
我們面臨的第一個問題
12:14
is how not to allow
ourselves to be manipulated
ourselves to be manipulated
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4647
就是如何不要讓我們自己被那些
控制數據資料的人給操控。
12:19
by those who control the data.
190
727431
2806
12:23
The enemies of liberal democracy,
they have a method.
they have a method.
191
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4106
自由民主的敵人有一種方法，
12:27
They hack our feelings.
192
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2372
他們能「駭入」我們的感受中。
12:30
Not our emails, not our bank accounts --
193
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2452
不是駭入我們的
電子郵件或銀行帳戶，
電子郵件或銀行帳戶，
12:32
they hack our feelings of fear
and hate and vanity,
and hate and vanity,
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而是駭入我們的感受，
如恐懼、仇恨，和虛榮，
如恐懼、仇恨，和虛榮，
12:38
and then use these feelings
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2428
接著用這些感受
12:40
to polarize and destroy
democracy from within.
democracy from within.
196
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3952
從內部將民主給兩極化並摧毀。
12:44
This is actually a method
197
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1920
其實，這種方式的先驅者
12:46
that Silicon Valley pioneered
in order to sell us products.
in order to sell us products.
198
754847
5049
就是矽谷，他們用這種方式
把產品銷售給我們。
把產品銷售給我們。
12:52
But now, the enemies of democracy
are using this very method
are using this very method
199
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但現在，民主的敵人
就是用同樣這種方式
就是用同樣這種方式
12:57
to sell us fear and hate and vanity.
200
765427
3724
把恐懼、仇恨和虛榮銷售給我們。
13:01
They cannot create
these feelings out of nothing.
these feelings out of nothing.
201
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3659
他們無法無中生有創造出這些感受。
13:06
So they get to know our own
preexisting weaknesses.
preexisting weaknesses.
202
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3831
所以他們開始了解
我們自己本來就有的弱點。
我們自己本來就有的弱點。
13:10
And then use them against us.
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2571
接著用這些弱點來對付我們。
13:13
And it is therefore
the responsibility of all of us
the responsibility of all of us
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3508
因此，我們所有人都有責任
13:17
to get to know our weaknesses
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2634
要去了解我們的弱點，
13:19
and make sure that they
do not become a weapon
do not become a weapon
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3635
並確保這些弱點
不會被民主的敵人拿來當作武器。
13:23
in the hands of the enemies of democracy.
207
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2883
13:27
Getting to know our own weaknesses
208
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2548
去了解我們自己的弱點，
13:29
will also help us to avoid the trap
of the fascist mirror.
of the fascist mirror.
209
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5583
也能協助我們避開
法西斯主義鏡子的陷阱。
法西斯主義鏡子的陷阱。
13:36
As we explained earlier,
fascism exploits our vanity.
fascism exploits our vanity.
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4151
如我們先前解釋過的，
法西斯主義會利用我們的虛榮。
法西斯主義會利用我們的虛榮。
13:40
It makes us see ourselves
as far more beautiful than we really are.
as far more beautiful than we really are.
211
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5746
它會讓我們認為自己
比真正的狀況還要美麗非常多。
比真正的狀況還要美麗非常多。
13:46
This is the seduction.
212
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1467
這就是誘惑。
13:48
But if you really know yourself,
213
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2447
但如果你真的了解你自己，
13:50
you will not fall
for this kind of flattery.
for this kind of flattery.
214
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3468
你就不會落入這種諂媚奉承。
13:54
If somebody puts a mirror
in front of your eyes
in front of your eyes
215
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4063
如果有人把一面鏡子擺在你眼前，
13:58
that hides all your ugly bits
and makes you see yourself
and makes you see yourself
216
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5060
它把你所有醜陋的部分
隱藏起來，讓你覺得
隱藏起來，讓你覺得
鏡中的自己比真實的自己更漂亮、
14:04
as far more beautiful
and far more important
and far more important
217
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4284
14:08
than you really are,
218
836358
1591
更重要許多，
14:09
just break that mirror.
219
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那就把鏡子打破。
14:13
Thank you.
220
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1151
謝謝。
14:14
(Applause)
221
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6382
（掌聲）
14:22
Chris Anderson: Yuval, thank you.
222
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1632
克里斯安德森：哈拉瑞，謝謝你。
14:24
Goodness me.
223
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1151
天哪。
14:25
It's so nice to see you again.
224
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1940
真高興再次見到你。
14:27
So, if I understand you right,
225
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1591
如果我沒誤解你的意思，
14:29
you're alerting us
to two big dangers here.
to two big dangers here.
226
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2667
你是在警告我們兩項危機。
14:32
One is the possible resurgence
of a seductive form of fascism,
of a seductive form of fascism,
227
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4492
其一是法西斯主義的
誘惑形式有可能會再現，
誘惑形式有可能會再現，
14:36
but close to that, dictatorships
that may not exactly be fascistic,
that may not exactly be fascistic,
228
864744
4254
還有和那很相近的獨裁專政，
不見得完全是法西斯主義，
不見得完全是法西斯主義，
14:41
but control all the data.
229
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2563
但能控制所有的數據資料。
14:43
I wonder if there's a third concern
230
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2096
我在納悶是否有第三項議題要關心，
14:45
that some people here
have already expressed,
have already expressed,
231
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2118
這裡的一些人已經提出了這個議題，
14:47
which is where, not governments,
but big corporations control all our data.
but big corporations control all our data.
232
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4897
就是，有些大企業，而非政府，
控制了所有我們的資料。
控制了所有我們的資料。
14:52
What do you call that,
233
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1309
你會怎麼看它？
14:54
and how worried should we be about that?
234
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2387
我們對它又該有多擔心？
14:56
Yuval Noah Harari: Well, in the end,
there isn't such a big difference
there isn't such a big difference
235
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3339
哈拉瑞：嗯，到頭來，企業和政府
14:59
between the corporations
and the governments,
and the governments,
236
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2426
之間並沒有太大的差別，
15:02
because, as I said, the questions is:
Who controls the data?
Who controls the data?
237
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3420
因為，如我剛說過的，
問題在於：誰控制了資料？
問題在於：誰控制了資料？
15:05
This is the real government.
238
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1395
這就是真正的政府。
15:07
If you call it a corporation
or a government --
or a government --
239
895212
2444
如果你稱它為企業或政府——
15:09
if it's a corporation
and it really controls the data,
and it really controls the data,
240
897680
3155
如果是一間企業控制了資料，
15:12
this is our real government.
241
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1928
它就是我們真正的政府。
15:14
So the difference
is more apparent than real.
is more apparent than real.
242
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3067
所以，這個差別是表象多於實際。
15:18
CA: But somehow,
at least with corporations,
at least with corporations,
243
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2858
克：但就某種層面來說，
至少如果是企業的話，
至少如果是企業的話，
15:21
you can imagine market mechanisms
where they can be taken down.
where they can be taken down.
244
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3519
你還可以想像有市場機制
來把企業拉垮。
來把企業拉垮。
15:24
I mean, if consumers just decide
245
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1917
我是指，如果消費者決定
15:26
that the company is no longer
operating in their interest,
operating in their interest,
246
914895
2754
這間公司已經不是為了
消費者的利益在營運，
消費者的利益在營運，
15:29
it does open the door to another market.
247
917673
1913
那確實就會打開
通往另一個市場的門。
通往另一個市場的門。
15:31
It seems easier to imagine that
248
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1546
似乎比較容易可以想像，
15:33
than, say, citizens rising up
and taking down a government
and taking down a government
249
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3151
比如，公民起義
拉垮控制一切的政府。
15:36
that is in control of everything.
250
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1612
15:37
YNH: Well, we are not there yet,
251
925991
1555
哈：嗯，我們還沒走到那一步，
15:39
but again, if a corporation really
knows you better than you know yourself --
knows you better than you know yourself --
252
927570
5158
但，如果一間企業
比你自己還了解你——
比你自己還了解你——
15:44
at least that it can manipulate
your own deepest emotions and desires,
your own deepest emotions and desires,
253
932752
5254
至少它可以操控你
最深的情緒和慾望，
最深的情緒和慾望，
15:50
and you won't even realize --
254
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1666
而你甚至不會發現——
15:51
you will think this is
your authentic self.
your authentic self.
255
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2579
你會認為這就是你最真實的自己。
15:54
So in theory, yes, in theory,
you can rise against a corporation,
you can rise against a corporation,
256
942768
4055
理論上，是的，理論上，
你可以起義對抗一間企業，
你可以起義對抗一間企業，
15:58
just as, in theory, you can rise
against a dictatorship.
against a dictatorship.
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就如同，理論上，
你可以起義對抗獨裁專政。
你可以起義對抗獨裁專政。
16:02
But in practice,
it is extremely difficult.
it is extremely difficult.
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但實際上，是極度困難的。
16:07
CA: So in "Homo Deus," you argue
that this would be the century
that this would be the century
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克：在《人類大命運：
從智人到神人》中，
從智人到神人》中，
你主張在這個世紀
人類有點變成了神，
人類有點變成了神，
16:11
when humans kind of became gods,
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16:14
either through development
of artificial intelligence
of artificial intelligence
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可能是透過人工智慧的發展，
16:17
or through genetic engineering.
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或是透過基因工程。
16:20
Has this prospect of political
system shift, collapse
system shift, collapse
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這種政治體制轉換、
崩壞的預期前景
崩壞的預期前景
是否會衝擊你
對於那種可能性的看法？
對於那種可能性的看法？
16:26
impacted your view on that possibility?
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16:29
YNH: Well, I think it makes it
even more likely,
even more likely,
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哈：嗯，我想反而可能性會更高，
16:32
and more likely
that it will happen faster,
that it will happen faster,
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更可能會發生，且更快發生，
16:35
because in times of crisis,
people are willing to take risks
people are willing to take risks
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因為在危機的時期，人們會願意
冒他們在其他時候不願冒的險。
16:40
that they wouldn't otherwise take.
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16:42
And people are willing to try
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人們會願意嘗試
16:45
all kinds of high-risk,
high-gain technologies.
high-gain technologies.
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各種高風險、高獲益的技術。
16:49
So these kinds of crises
might serve the same function
might serve the same function
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所以這些類型的危機
有可能會和 20 世紀的
有可能會和 20 世紀的
兩次世界大戰有相同的功能。
16:54
as the two world wars in the 20th century.
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16:57
The two world wars greatly accelerated
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那兩次世界大戰大大加速了
17:00
the development of new
and dangerous technologies.
and dangerous technologies.
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危險新技術的發展。
17:04
And the same thing might happen
in the 21st century.
in the 21st century.
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同樣的狀況可能
會在 21 世紀發生。
會在 21 世紀發生。
17:07
I mean, you need to be
a little crazy to run too fast,
a little crazy to run too fast,
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我是指，你得要
有點瘋狂才能跑太快，
有點瘋狂才能跑太快，
17:11
let's say, with genetic engineering.
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比如在基因工程方面。
17:13
But now you have more
and more crazy people
and more crazy people
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但現在有越來越多瘋狂的人
17:17
in charge of different
countries in the world,
countries in the world,
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主導世界上的不同國家，
17:19
so the chances are getting
higher, not lower.
higher, not lower.
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所以可能性反而會更高，而非更低。
17:23
CA: So, putting it all together, Yuval,
you've got this unique vision.
you've got this unique vision.
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克：所以，總的來說，
哈拉瑞，你有非常獨特的遠景。
哈拉瑞，你有非常獨特的遠景。
17:27
Roll the clock forward 30 years.
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把時間向未來快轉 30 年。
17:28
What's your guess --
does humanity just somehow scrape through,
does humanity just somehow scrape through,
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你的猜測是什麼？
人類是否會以某種方式勉強渡過，
人類是否會以某種方式勉強渡過，
17:31
look back and say, "Wow,
that was a close thing. We did it!"
that was a close thing. We did it!"
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回頭看，並說：「哇，
差一點就失敗，但我們成功了！」
差一點就失敗，但我們成功了！」
17:35
Or not?
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或者不會？
17:36
YNH: So far, we've managed
to overcome all the previous crises.
to overcome all the previous crises.
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哈：目前，我們都有辦法
克服過去的所有危機。
克服過去的所有危機。
17:40
And especially if you look
at liberal democracy
at liberal democracy
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特別是，如果你去看自由民主，
17:43
and you think things are bad now,
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你會認為現在狀況不好，
17:46
just remember how much worse
things looked in 1938 or in 1968.
things looked in 1938 or in 1968.
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別忘了在 1938 或 1968 年時
狀況有多糟。
狀況有多糟。
17:52
So this is really nothing,
this is just a small crisis.
this is just a small crisis.
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這其實不算什麼，只是個小危機。
17:56
But you can never know,
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但你永遠不會知道，
17:58
because, as a historian,
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因為，身為歷史學家，
18:00
I know that you should never
underestimate human stupidity.
underestimate human stupidity.
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我知道永遠都不要
低估了人類的愚蠢。
低估了人類的愚蠢。
18:05
(Laughter) (Applause)
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（笑聲）（掌聲）
18:06
It is one of the most powerful forces
that shape history.
that shape history.
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那是形成歷史最強大的力量之一。
18:11
CA: Yuval, it's been an absolute delight
to have you with us.
to have you with us.
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克：哈拉瑞，非常榮幸
能請你來與我們分享。
能請你來與我們分享。
18:14
Thank you for making the virtual trip.
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謝謝你透過虛擬旅程來到現場。
18:16
Have a great evening there in Tel Aviv.
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祝你在特拉維夫有個美好的夜晚。
18:18
Yuval Harari!
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哈拉瑞！
18:19
YNH: Thank you very much.
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哈：非常謝謝。
18:20
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Yuval Noah Harari - Historian, authorIn his book "Homo Deus," Yuval Noah Harari explores the future of humankind: the destinies we may set for ourselves and the quests we'll undertake.
Why you should listen
In his book, Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow, Yuval Noah Harari explores the projects, dreams and nightmares that will shape the 21st century -- from overcoming death to creating artificial life. He maps the future and asks fundamental questions: Where do we go from here? How will we protect this fragile world from our own destructive powers? The book has sold four million copies since its publication in 2016.
Harari's previous book, Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind, explores what made homo sapiens the most successful species on the planet. His answer: We are the only animal that can believe in things that exist purely in our imagination, such as gods, states, money, human rights, corporations and other fictions, and we have developed a unique ability to use these stories to unify and organize groups and ensure cooperation. Sapiens has sold eight million copies and been translated into more than 50 languages. Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg and President Barack Obama have recommended it as a must-read.
Harari lectures as a Professor of history at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, where he specializes in world history, medieval history and military history. His current research focuses on macro-historical questions: What is the relationship between history and biology? What is the essential difference between Homo sapiens and other animals? Is there justice in history? Does history have a direction? Did people become happier as history unfolded? Harari has written for newspapers such as The Guardian, Financial Times, the Times, Nature magazine and the Wall Street Journal.
Harari's new book, 21 Lessons for the 21st Century, will take the pulse of our current global climate, focusing on the biggest questions of the present moment: What is really happening right now? What are today’s greatest challenges and choices? What should we pay attention to? The book will be published in multiple languages in September 2018.
Yuval Noah Harari | Speaker | TED.com