TED2002
George Dyson: The story of Project Orion
Džordž Dajson (George Dyson) o Projektu Orion
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Džordž Dajson priča o Projektu Orion, o izgradnji velikog svemirskog broda na nuklearni pogon koji bi mogao da nas preveze do Saturna za pet godina. Dajsonova insajderska perspektiva i skup tajnih dokumenata oživljavaju atmosferu Atomskog doba.
George Dyson - Historian of science
In telling stories of technologies and the individuals who created them, George Dyson takes a clear-eyed view of our scientific past -- while illuminating what lies ahead. Full bio
In telling stories of technologies and the individuals who created them, George Dyson takes a clear-eyed view of our scientific past -- while illuminating what lies ahead. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I'm a historian.
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Ja sam istoričar.
00:14
Steve told us about the future of little technology;
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Stiv nam je pričao o budućnosti "sitne" tehnologije;
00:17
I'm going to show you some of the past of big technology.
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Ja ću vam prikazati deo prošlosti velike tehnologije.
00:21
This was a project to build a 4,000-ton nuclear bomb-propelled spaceship
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Reč je o projektu kojim bi svemirski brod od 4000 tona nuklearne snage
00:27
and go to Saturn and Jupiter.
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stigao na Saturn i Jupiter.
00:30
This took place in my childhood -- 1957 to '65.
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Ovo se dešavalo još u doba mog detinjstva -- od 1957. do 1965.
00:34
It was deeply classified.
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Projekat je bio strogo poverljiv.
00:36
I'm going to show you some stuff that not only has not been declassified,
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Pričamo o nečemu što ne samo da nije opozvano kao državna tajna,
00:40
but has now been reclassified.
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već je ponovo postalo državna tajna.
00:42
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
00:46
If all goes well, next year I'll be back and I'll have a lot more to show you,
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Ako sve bude u redu, sledeće godine ću imati još više da vam ispričam,
00:50
and if all doesn't go well, I'll be in jail like Wen Ho Lee.
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ako ne završim u zatvoru kao Ven Ho Li.
00:53
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
00:58
So, this ship was basically the size of the Marriott Hotel,
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Dakle, reč je o letelici veličine hotela Mariot,
01:02
a little taller and a little bigger.
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štaviše, nešto višoj i nešto dužoj.
01:04
And one of the people who worked on it in the beginning
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Jedna od osoba koje su na njoj radili na početku
01:07
was my father, Freeman, there in the middle.
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je bio moj otac, Frimen, ovde u sredini.
01:09
That's me and my sister, Esther, who's a frequent TEDster.
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Na slici smo ja i moja sestra, Ester, koja je čest posetilac TED susreta.
01:12
I didn't like nuclear bomb-propelled spaceships.
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Ja nisam specijalno voleo svemirske brodove na nuklearni pogon.
01:15
I mean, I thought it was a great idea, but I started building kayaks.
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Mislim, bila je to dobra ideja, ali ja sam počeo da pravim kajake.
01:18
So we had a few kayaks.
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Imali smo nekoliko kajaka.
01:20
Just so you know, I am not Dr. Strangelove.
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Čisto da znate, nisam Dr. Čudoljub (Dr. Strangelove).
01:24
But all the time I was out there doing these strange kayak voyages
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Ali sve vreme dok sam bio na raznim putovanjima kajakom
01:27
in odd, beautiful parts of this planet,
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na čudnim, prelepim delovima ove planete,
01:30
I always thought in the back of my mind about Project Orion,
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uvek sam u pozadini razmišljao o Projektu Orion,
01:33
and how my father and his friends were going to build these big ships.
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i kako su moj otac i njegovi prijatelji pravili te velike svemirske brodove.
01:37
They were really going to go, they were actually going to go.
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Oni su stvarno bili spremni da odu, da zaista odu.
01:40
Ted Taylor, who led the project, was going to take his children.
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Ted Tejlor, vođa projekta, je hteo da povede i svoju decu.
01:42
My father was not going to take his children;
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Moj otac nije imao nameru da nas povede;
01:44
that was one of the reasons we sort of had a falling out for a few years.
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i to je bio jedan od razloga što skoro nismo pričali nekoliko godina.
01:49
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
01:51
The project began in '57 at General Atomics there.
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Projekat je započet 1957. ovde u Dženeral Atomiksu.
01:55
That's right on the coast at La Jolla.
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To je tačno na obali mora u La Hoji (u San Dijegu).
01:57
Look at that central building right in the middle of the picture:
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Pogledajte centralnu zgradu u sredini ove slike:
01:59
that's the 130-foot diameter library,
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to je biblioteka prečnika oko 40 metara,
02:03
that is exactly the size of the base of the spaceship.
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što je bila tačno veličina baze svemirskog broda.
02:06
So put that library at the bottom of that ship --
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Sad zamislite tu biblioteku na dnu letelice --
02:08
that's how big the thing was going to be.
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tačno toliko velika je trebalo da bude.
02:10
It would take 2,000 or 3,000 bombs.
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Zahtevala bi oko 2000 ili 3000 bombi.
02:13
The people who worked on it were a lot of the Los Alamos people
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Na ovom projektu je radilo i dosta onih koji su
02:15
who had done the hydrogen bomb work.
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u Los Alamosu napravili hidrogensku bombu.
02:17
It was the first project funded by ARPA.
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To je bio prvi projekat agencije ARPA.
02:19
That's the contract where ARPA gave the first million dollars
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Ovo je ugovor kojim ARPA daje prvih milion dolara
02:22
to get this thing started.
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da se započne projekat.
02:23
"Spaceship project officially begun. Job waiting for you. Dyson."
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"Projekat svemirskog broda je zvanično počeo. Posao te očekuje. Dajson."
02:27
That's July '58.
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To je bilo u julu 1958.
02:29
Two days later, the space traveler's manifesto explaining why --
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Dva dana kasnije, u dokumentu zvanom "Manifest svemirskog putnika" se objašnjava
02:32
just like we heard yesterday -- why we need to go into space:
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-- slično onome što smo čuli juče -- zašto je potrebno da idemo u svemir:
02:36
"trips to satellites of the outer planets. August 20, 1958."
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"putovanja na satelite drugih planeta. 20. avgust 1958."
02:40
These are the statistics of what would be the good places to go and stop. (Laughter)
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Ovo su statistički podaci o mestima pogodnim za stanice na putu . (Smeh)
02:44
Some of the sizes of the ships,
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Nekoliko mogućih dimenzija brodova,
02:46
ranging all the way up to ship mass of 8 million tons,
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sve do jednog koji bi bio težak 8 miliona tona,
02:49
so that was the outer extreme.
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dakle to je bila krajnja granica.
02:51
Here was version two: 2,000 bombs.
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Ovo je druga verzija: 2000 bombi.
02:56
These are five kiloton yield bombs about the size of small Volkswagens;
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Ovo su bombe snage 5 kilotona i veličine omanjeg Volksvagena;
03:00
it would take 800 to get into orbit.
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Bilo bi potrebno 800 takvih da se letelica podigne u orbitu.
03:03
Here we see a 10,000 ton ship
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Ovde vidimo brod od 10 kilotona
03:06
will deliver 1,300 tons to Saturn and back;
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koji bi poneo 1300 tona do Saturna i nazad;
03:09
essentially a five year trip.
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to bi bio put od 5 godina.
03:11
Possible departure dates: October 1960 to February 1967. (Laughter)
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Mogući datumi poletanja: od oktobra 1960. do februara 1967. (Smeh)
03:15
This is trajectories going to Mars;
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Ovo je trajektorija puta do Marsa;
03:18
all this was done by hand with slide rules.
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sve je crtano rukom i uz pomoć lenjira.
03:20
The little Orion ship
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Mali brod Orion
03:21
and what it would take to do what Orion does with chemicals:
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i šta bi sve bilo potrebno da brod kao Orion poleti:
03:24
you have a ship the size of the Empire State Building.
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jer reč je o brodu veličine Empajer Stejt Bildinga.
03:26
NASA had no interest; they tried to kill the project.
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NASA nije bila zainteresovana; pokušali su da prekinu projekat.
03:28
The people who supported it were the Air Force,
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Ljudi koji su dali podršku su bili iz Er Forsa (Vojno Vazduhoplovstvo),
03:30
which meant that it was all secret.
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što je značilo da je sve bilo velika tajna.
03:32
And that's why when you get something declassified,
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I zato kad sa nečega skinete oznaku "vojna tajna",
03:34
that's what it looks like. (Laughter)
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to izgleda ovako. (Smeh)
03:37
Military weapon versions that were versions that carried
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Jer u pitanju su bile vojne bombe, hidrogenske bombe
03:39
hydrogen bombs that could destroy half the planet.
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koje su mogle da unište pola planete.
03:41
There's another version there that sends retaliatory strikes at the Soviet Union.
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Postojala je i verzija kojom se izvodi kazneni napad na Sovjetski Savez.
03:45
This is the real secret stuff: how to get directed energy explosions
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Reč je o velikim tajnama: kako ostvariti direktnu eksploziju
03:49
so you're sending the energy of a nuclear explosion --
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i pokrenuti energiju nuklearne eksplozije --
03:51
not like just a stick of dynamite,
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što nije isto kao štap dinamita,
03:53
but you're directing it at the ship.
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i pokrenuti je u pravcu letelice.
03:55
And this is still a very active subject.
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Sve ovo je još uvek aktuelna tema.
03:57
It's quite dangerous,
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Jeste vrlo opasno, ali ja verujem
03:59
but I believe it's better to have dangerous things in the open
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da je bolje da opasne teme budu javne
04:01
than think you're going to keep them secret.
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nego da se drže u tajnosti.
04:03
This is what's happened at 600 microseconds.
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Ovo se desilo u 600 mikrosekundi.
04:05
The Air Force started to build smaller models and actually started doing this.
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Er Fors je stvarno počeo da gradi manje modele.
04:10
The guys in La Jolla said, "We've got to get started now."
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Ljudi iz La Hoje su rekli: "Moramo ovo da počnemo odmah."
04:13
They built a high-explosive propelled model.
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Napravili su model koji se pokreće pomoću eksploziva.
04:15
These are stills from film footage that was saved by someone
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Ove slike su iz filma koji je neko sačuvao
04:19
who was supposed to destroy it but didn't
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trebalo je da ga uništi ali nije
04:21
and kept it in their basement for the last 40 years.
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i čuvao ga je u podrumu tokom poslednjih 40 godina.
04:23
So, these are three-pound charges of C4;
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Znači to su paketi od kilogram i po eksploziva C4;
04:26
that's about 10 times what the guy had in his shoes. (Laughter)
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to je otprilike 10 puta više od onoga što je onaj tip imao u cipelama. (Smeh).
04:30
This is Ed Day putting ... So each of these coffee cans has three pounds of C4 in it.
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Ed Dej koji postavlja ove "konzerve" od kojih svaka ima po kilo i po eksploziva u sebi.
04:35
They're building a system that ejects these at quarter-second intervals.
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Napravili su sistem koji ih izbacuje 4 puta u sekundi.
04:39
That's my dad in the sport coat there holding the briefcase.
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Ovaj u sportskoj jakni što drži aktovku je moj otac.
04:42
So, they had a lot of fun doing this. But no children were allowed;
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Oni su se bas fino zabavljali gradeći ovo. Nažalost, deci nije bio dozvoljen pristup;
04:45
my dad could tell me he was building a spaceship
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tata je mogao da mi kaže da pravi svemirski brod
04:48
and going to go to Saturn,
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i da ide na Saturn
04:50
but he could not say anything more about it.
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ali nije mogao da kaže ništa više.
04:52
So all my life I have wanted to find this stuff out,
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Celog života sam hteo da otkrijem nešto o ovome,
04:54
and spent the last four years tracking these old guys down.
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i proveo sam prethodne 4 godine u potrazi za ovim matorcima.
04:56
These are stills from the video.
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Ovo su kadrovi iz filma za koji je juče
04:58
Jeff Bezos kindly, yesterday, said
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Džef Bezos ljubazno rekao da će ga
05:01
he'll put this video up on the Amazon site -- some little clip of it. (Applause)
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postaviti na sajt Amazon -- barem jedan deo. (Aplauz)
05:04
So, thanks to him.
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Hvala Džefu.
05:06
They got quite serious about the engineering of this.
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Bili su vrlo ozbiljni u izgradnji ovog projekta.
05:08
The size of that mass, for us, is really large technology
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Dimenzije o kojima pričamo su za nas i dalje vrlo velike
05:12
in a way we're never going to go back to.
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i teško da ćemo ikad da se vratimo na sličnu zamisao.
05:15
If you saw the 1959 ... This is what it would feel like in the passenger compartment;
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Ovakav bi bio osećaj u putničkoj kabini;
05:19
that's acceleration profile. (Laughter)
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to je kriva profila ubrzanja. (Smeh)
05:22
And pulse system yield:
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I rezultat propulsivnog sistema:
05:24
we're looking at 20-kiloton yield for an effect for us of 10 million Newtons.
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Ovde vidimo rezultat snage od 20 kilotona koji bi imao efekat od 10 miliona njutna.
05:28
Well, here we have a little problem,
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Ovo je bio mali problem,
05:30
the radiation doses at the crew station: 700 rads per shot. (Laughter)
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doza radijacije u kabini posade: 700 rada po udaru. (Smeh)
05:36
Fission yields during development:
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Rezultati fisije tokom razvoja projekta:
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they were hoping to get clean bombs -- they didn't.
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nameravali su da naprave čistu bombu - nisu uspeli.
05:42
Eyeburn: this is what happens to the people in Miami who are looking up. (Laughter)
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Opekotine na očima: ovo se dešava onima u Majamiju kad gledaju gore. (Smeh)
05:45
Personnel compartment noise: that's not too bad;
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Nivo buke u putničkoj kabini: to nije bilo loše;
05:49
it's very low frequencies, it's basically like these subwoofers.
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frekvencija je niska, otprilike kao ovi zvučnici.
05:52
And now we have ground hazard assessments
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A sad malo procene rizika na zemlji
05:54
when you have a blow-up on the pad.
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ako recimo brod eksplodira na samoj platformi.
05:56
Finally, at the very end in 1964, NASA steps in and says,
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Tek krajem 1964. NASA uleti u igru i kaže: "U redu,
05:59
"OK, we'll support a feasibility study for a small version
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podržaćemo studiju izvodljivosti za malu letilicu
06:02
that could be launched with Saturn Vs in sections and pieced together."
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koja bi bila lansirana u delovima i potom sklopljena."
06:06
So this is what NASA did, getting an
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I to je ono što je NASA i uradila,
06:12
eight man version that would go to Mars.
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napravila je verziju za 8 ljudi koja bi išla na Mars.
06:14
They liked it because the guys who kind of live there would be like, "It's just like
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To im se više svidelo jer bi se ljudi unutra osećali: "Hej, ovo je
06:16
living in a submarine."
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kao da smo u podmornici."
06:18
This is crew compartment. It switches, so what's upside down
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Kabina za posadu. Ovde je sve naopačke tako da bi bilo
06:21
is right side up when you go to artificial gravity mode.
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u pravom pravcu kad se uključi veštačka gravitacija.
06:23
The scientists were still going to go along;
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I dalje je bio plan da naučnici putuju;
06:25
they would take seven astronauts and seven scientists.
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trebalo je da ide 7 astronauta i 7 naučnika.
06:27
This is a 20 man version for going to Jupiter:
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Ovo je verzija za 20 putnika za Jupiter;
06:30
bunks, storm cellars, exercise room.
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spavaonica, sklonište, sala za vežbe.
06:33
You know, it was going to be a nice long trip.
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Jer to bi bio lepo dugo putovanje.
06:36
The Air Force version: here we have a military version.
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Verzija Er Forsa - verzija vojne letelice.
06:39
This is the kind of stuff that's not been declassified,
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Ovi dokumenti su i dalje državna tajna
06:42
just that people managed to sneak home and after,
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samo što su ih neki ljudi krišom odneli kućama
06:45
you know, on their deathbed basically gave me.
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i faktički mi ih predali pre smrti.
06:48
The sort of artist conceptions:
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Ovde se vide i neki umetnički koncepti:
06:50
these are basically PowerPoint presentations
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to su delovi neke vrste PowerPoint prezentacije
06:53
given to the Air Force 40 years ago.
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urađene za Er Fors pre 40 godina.
06:55
Look at the little guys there outside the vehicle.
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Van letilice se čak vide i male ljudske figure.
07:01
And one part of NASA was interested in it
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Bilo je zainteresovanih i među ljudima iz NASA
07:03
but the headquarters in NASA, they killed the project.
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ali je rukovodstvo bilo protiv i projekat je zaustavljen.
07:06
So finally at the end, we can
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Tako da na kraju, iako su se stvari
07:09
see the thing followed its sort of design path
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odvijale nekim predviđenim tokom sve do
07:12
right up to 1965 and then all those paths came to a halt.
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1965. da bi se tek tada se sve zaustavilo.
07:16
Results: none.
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Rezultat: nikakav.
07:18
This project is hereby terminated.
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Projekat je prekinut.
07:20
So that's the end. All I can say in closing is,
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I to je kraj. Sve što mogu da kažem kao zaključak je,
07:23
we heard yesterday that one of the 10 bad things that could happen to us
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juće smo čuli da je jedna od 10 loših stvari koje mogu da nam se dese
07:27
is an asteroid with our name on it.
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je da asteriod dobije ime po nama.
07:29
And one of the bad things that could happen to NASA
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A jedna od loših stvari koje mogu da se dese NASA-i
07:32
is if that asteroid shows up with our name on it nine months out
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je da se taj asteroid sa našim imenom pojavi posle 9 meseci
07:35
and everybody says, "Well, what are we going to do?"
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i onda svi kažu: "Uh, a šta ćemo sad?"
07:38
And Orion is really one of the only, if not the only,
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Orion je jedna od retkih, ako ne i jedina
07:42
off-the-shelf technologies that could do something. (Laughter)
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već spremna tehnologija koja bi bila od koristi. (Smeh)
07:48
So I'm going to tell you the good news and the bad news.
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Sad ću vam reći jednu dobru vest i jednu lošu vest.
07:50
The good news is that NASA has a small, secret
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Dobra vest je da NASA ima malu tajnu grupu koja se
07:55
contingency plan division that is looking at this,
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bavi kritičnim situacijama zainteresovanu za ovo,
07:58
trying to keep knowledge of Orion preserved in the event of such a misfortune.
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i koja pokušava da sačuva stečeno znanje o Orionu u slučaju da prigusti.
08:03
Maybe keep a few little bombs of plutonium on the side.
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Možda su sklonili nekolicinu plutonijumskih bombi negde sa strane.
08:06
That's the good news. The bad news is,
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To je dobra vest. Loša vest je
08:08
when I got in contact with these people
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da kad sam stupio u kontakt sa tim ljudima
08:10
to try and get some documents from them,
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da bih od njih dobio neku dokumentaciju,
08:12
they went crazy because I had all this stuff that they don't have,
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poludeli su što sam ja bio u posedu dokumenata koje oni nemaju,
08:15
and NASA purchased 1,759 pages of this stuff from me. (Laughter)
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tako da je NASA otkupila od mene 1759 stranica o ovome. (Smeh)
08:20
So that's the state we're at: it's not very good.
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Tako da tu smo, gde smo: ne piše nam se baš najbolje.
08:24
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
George Dyson - Historian of scienceIn telling stories of technologies and the individuals who created them, George Dyson takes a clear-eyed view of our scientific past -- while illuminating what lies ahead.
Why you should listen
The development of the Aleutian kayak, its adaptation by Russians in the 18th and 19th centuries, and his own redevelopment of the craft in the 1970s was chronicled in George Dyson’s Baidarka: The Kayak of 1986. His 1997 Darwin Among the Machines: The Evolution of Global Intelligence (“the last book about the Internet written without the Internet”) explored the history and prehistory of digital computing and telecommunications as a manifestation of the convergent destiny of organisms and machines.
Project Orion: The True Story of the Atomic Spaceship, published in 2002, assembled first-person interviews and recently declassified documents to tell the story of a path not taken into space: a nuclear-powered spaceship whose objective was to land a party of 100 people on Mars four years before we landed two people on the Moon. Turing's Cathedral: The Origins of the Digital Universe, published in 2012, illuminated the transition from numbers that mean things to numbers that do things in the aftermath of World War II.
Dyson’s current project, Analogia, is a semi-autobiographical reflection on how analog computation is re-establishing control over the digital world.
George Dyson | Speaker | TED.com