TED2002
George Dyson: The story of Project Orion
George Dyson 的獵戶座計畫
Filmed:
Readability: 3.8
848,649 views
作家George Dyson講述了獵戶座計畫，那是一艘大型的核子推進太空船，可以在五年內帶我們去土星。他有內線消息，也有各種祕密文件，讓我們重溫核子年代的舊夢。
George Dyson - Historian of science
In telling stories of technologies and the individuals who created them, George Dyson takes a clear-eyed view of our scientific past -- while illuminating what lies ahead. Full bio
In telling stories of technologies and the individuals who created them, George Dyson takes a clear-eyed view of our scientific past -- while illuminating what lies ahead. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I'm a historian.
0
0
2000
我是一個研究歷史的人，
00:14
Steve told us about the future of little technology;
1
2000
3000
史蒂夫不久前講了一些小科技未來可能的發展，
00:17
I'm going to show you some of the past of big technology.
2
5000
4000
我則要告訴大家一個"大"科技的過去發展過程。
00:21
This was a project to build a 4,000-ton nuclear bomb-propelled spaceship
3
9000
6000
這個計畫是要建造一個以4000噸級核子彈推動的太空船，
00:27
and go to Saturn and Jupiter.
4
15000
3000
用來飛往土星和木星。
00:30
This took place in my childhood -- 1957 to '65.
5
18000
4000
這件事情是發生在我小時候的事 -- 時間是在1957年到1965年之間，
00:34
It was deeply classified.
6
22000
2000
這計畫當時是高度機密。
00:36
I'm going to show you some stuff that not only has not been declassified,
7
24000
4000
所以我現在要給各位看的東西, 不僅至今還沒有被解密，
00:40
but has now been reclassified.
8
28000
2000
甚至現在還要再度被列為機密文件。
00:42
(Laughter)
9
30000
4000
(觀眾笑聲)
00:46
If all goes well, next year I'll be back and I'll have a lot more to show you,
10
34000
4000
如果一切順利的話，明年我會再回來這裡展示更多東西給各位看，
00:50
and if all doesn't go well, I'll be in jail like Wen Ho Lee.
11
38000
3000
但如果情況不是那麼順利的話，我就會像李文和一樣被關起來了。（李文和因洩漏國家研究計畫內容入獄）
00:53
(Laughter)
12
41000
4000
觀眾笑聲
00:58
So, this ship was basically the size of the Marriott Hotel,
13
46000
4000
這艘太空船的大小和萬豪旅館(Marriott Hotel)差不多，
01:02
a little taller and a little bigger.
14
50000
2000
只稍高點，再稍大點。
01:04
And one of the people who worked on it in the beginning
15
52000
3000
有一個人從一開始就參與這個計畫，
01:07
was my father, Freeman, there in the middle.
16
55000
2000
那就是我老爹，弗利曼--就是照片中間那個人，
01:09
That's me and my sister, Esther, who's a frequent TEDster.
17
57000
3000
旁邊是我和我姐姐，Esther，她可是TED的常客...
01:12
I didn't like nuclear bomb-propelled spaceships.
18
60000
3000
我並不喜歡用核子彈推進的太空船,
01:15
I mean, I thought it was a great idea, but I started building kayaks.
19
63000
3000
但我認為建造物體航向未知倒是是好主意，所以我開始做皮艇。
01:18
So we had a few kayaks.
20
66000
2000
我有幾艘皮艇。
01:20
Just so you know, I am not Dr. Strangelove.
21
68000
3000
就如各位所知我不是奇愛博士(1964年一部敘述美國蘇聯間核戰電影的主角)，
01:24
But all the time I was out there doing these strange kayak voyages
22
72000
3000
但是每次我駕駛著這些外型奇特的皮艇，
01:27
in odd, beautiful parts of this planet,
23
75000
3000
航行在地球上最奇特美麗的地方時，
01:30
I always thought in the back of my mind about Project Orion,
24
78000
3000
我內心深處總會想到這個獵戶座計畫，
01:33
and how my father and his friends were going to build these big ships.
25
81000
4000
並思考我爸和他的朋友們當時究竟打算如何建造這些大太空船。
01:37
They were really going to go, they were actually going to go.
26
85000
3000
他們當時是玩真的，他們真的要搭太空船上太空。
01:40
Ted Taylor, who led the project, was going to take his children.
27
88000
2000
像這個計畫的主持人，泰德•泰勒，他就打算帶他的孩子同行，
01:42
My father was not going to take his children;
28
90000
2000
我老爹可沒打算帶他的孩子們去。
01:44
that was one of the reasons we sort of had a falling out for a few years.
29
92000
4000
這也是有幾年我們父子之間有點不爽的原因之一。
01:49
(Laughter)
30
97000
2000
(觀眾笑聲)
01:51
The project began in '57 at General Atomics there.
31
99000
4000
這計畫於1957年，在通用原子公司（General Atomic）開始進行。
01:55
That's right on the coast at La Jolla.
32
103000
2000
地點就在La Jolla(拉霍亞)海灘。
01:57
Look at that central building right in the middle of the picture:
33
105000
2000
看照片正中間的這棟建築。
01:59
that's the 130-foot diameter library,
34
107000
4000
這圖書館的直徑有130英尺，
02:03
that is exactly the size of the base of the spaceship.
35
111000
3000
這正和那艘太空船的底座大小一致。
02:06
So put that library at the bottom of that ship --
36
114000
2000
想像一下將圖書館放在飛船的底下--
02:08
that's how big the thing was going to be.
37
116000
2000
就可以看出這艘太空船的尺寸。
02:10
It would take 2,000 or 3,000 bombs.
38
118000
3000
推動這艘太空船需要用兩三千枚核彈，
02:13
The people who worked on it were a lot of the Los Alamos people
39
121000
2000
參與這個飛船計畫的人，許多是以前在Los Alamos的人，
02:15
who had done the hydrogen bomb work.
40
123000
2000
他們過去都是搞氫彈的，
02:17
It was the first project funded by ARPA.
41
125000
2000
這個計畫是ARPA（美國高級研究計畫署）資助的第一個專案，
02:19
That's the contract where ARPA gave the first million dollars
42
127000
3000
這是ARPA的合約，他們提供了第一筆一百萬美元資金
02:22
to get this thing started.
43
130000
1000
來啟動這個計畫。
02:23
"Spaceship project officially begun. Job waiting for you. Dyson."
44
131000
4000
“太空船計畫正式啟動，你有工作了，戴森。”
02:27
That's July '58.
45
135000
2000
時間是在1958年7月。
02:29
Two days later, the space traveler's manifesto explaining why --
46
137000
3000
兩天後，這些太空遊客的宣言說明了我們為什麼要上太空--
02:32
just like we heard yesterday -- why we need to go into space:
47
140000
4000
--就像我們昨天聽到的一樣。
02:36
"trips to satellites of the outer planets. August 20, 1958."
48
144000
4000
“前往太陽系外行星的衛星之旅” -- 1958年8月20日。(外行星指太陽系中地球軌道外的四顆由氣體組成有衛星帶的行星:木星 土星 海王星 天王星)
02:40
These are the statistics of what would be the good places to go and stop. (Laughter)
49
148000
4000
這是航行途中可以停留的中途點及目的地的統計表，
02:44
Some of the sizes of the ships,
50
152000
2000
有各種尺寸的太空船，
02:46
ranging all the way up to ship mass of 8 million tons,
51
154000
3000
最大達到8百萬噸級，
02:49
so that was the outer extreme.
52
157000
2000
這是最大的太空船。
02:51
Here was version two: 2,000 bombs.
53
159000
5000
這是第二個版本，兩千個核彈，
02:56
These are five kiloton yield bombs about the size of small Volkswagens;
54
164000
4000
會產生相當於5千噸炸彈的動力，大小和小型的福斯汽車相當。
03:00
it would take 800 to get into orbit.
55
168000
3000
讓太空船進入太空軌道需要8百枚。
03:03
Here we see a 10,000 ton ship
56
171000
3000
這是一萬噸級的太空船，
03:06
will deliver 1,300 tons to Saturn and back;
57
174000
3000
其中一千三百噸動力是要留做從土星回程使用，
03:09
essentially a five year trip.
58
177000
2000
這樣需要五年的旅行時間。
03:11
Possible departure dates: October 1960 to February 1967. (Laughter)
59
179000
4000
可能的啟程日在1960年10月到1967年2月之間。
03:15
This is trajectories going to Mars;
60
183000
3000
這是航行到火星的軌跡線，
03:18
all this was done by hand with slide rules.
61
186000
2000
這些都是用計算尺手算出來的。
03:20
The little Orion ship
62
188000
1000
這艘獵戶座太空船，
03:21
and what it would take to do what Orion does with chemicals:
63
189000
3000
如果用化學物質來推進的話，
03:24
you have a ship the size of the Empire State Building.
64
192000
2000
大空船的大小大概會和帝國大廈差不多。
03:26
NASA had no interest; they tried to kill the project.
65
194000
2000
美國太空總署NASA沒有興趣，他們試圖砍掉這個研究計畫。
03:28
The people who supported it were the Air Force,
66
196000
2000
但空軍則支持這個計畫，
03:30
which meant that it was all secret.
67
198000
2000
這意味著整個計畫都是秘密。
03:32
And that's why when you get something declassified,
68
200000
2000
這也是為什麼當這計畫解密時，
03:34
that's what it looks like. (Laughter)
69
202000
2000
它是這副模樣。
03:37
Military weapon versions that were versions that carried
70
205000
2000
這個軍事武器版的太空船所攜帶的
03:39
hydrogen bombs that could destroy half the planet.
71
207000
2000
氫彈足以摧毀半個地球。
03:41
There's another version there that sends retaliatory strikes at the Soviet Union.
72
209000
4000
這是另一個版本，可以用來對蘇聯實施報復性打擊--
03:45
This is the real secret stuff: how to get directed energy explosions
73
213000
4000
這才是本計畫真正的秘密核心：如何實現定向爆炸，
03:49
so you're sending the energy of a nuclear explosion --
74
217000
2000
核爆炸的推力必須被定向，
03:51
not like just a stick of dynamite,
75
219000
2000
這點和普通炸藥的爆炸不同，
03:53
but you're directing it at the ship.
76
221000
2000
爆炸力量必須被導向太空船本身，
03:55
And this is still a very active subject.
77
223000
2000
定向爆炸至今仍然是一個非常活躍的學科。
03:57
It's quite dangerous,
78
225000
2000
它是相當危險的，
03:59
but I believe it's better to have dangerous things in the open
79
227000
2000
不過我想將危險的東西公開
04:01
than think you're going to keep them secret.
80
229000
2000
會比將其隱藏要好一些。
04:03
This is what's happened at 600 microseconds.
81
231000
2000
這是爆炸6百微秒後的現象。
04:05
The Air Force started to build smaller models and actually started doing this.
82
233000
5000
空軍方面開始建造較小規模的太空船，
04:10
The guys in La Jolla said, "We've got to get started now."
83
238000
3000
在拉霍亞海灘的這些傢伙說：“我們現在該啟動了。”
04:13
They built a high-explosive propelled model.
84
241000
2000
他們造了一個高爆炸推進模型。
04:15
These are stills from film footage that was saved by someone
85
243000
4000
這是一些從影片上擷取下來的照片，原本影片應該要銷毀的，
04:19
who was supposed to destroy it but didn't
86
247000
2000
但負責的人卻沒有將其銷毀，
04:21
and kept it in their basement for the last 40 years.
87
249000
2000
反而將這些影片放在地下室達40年之久。
04:23
So, these are three-pound charges of C4;
88
251000
3000
這是3磅C4炸藥爆炸的威力，
04:26
that's about 10 times what the guy had in his shoes. (Laughter)
89
254000
4000
大概是美國鞋底炸彈客裝在鞋裡的10倍。
04:30
This is Ed Day putting ... So each of these coffee cans has three pounds of C4 in it.
90
258000
5000
這只是牛刀小試而已--每個咖啡罐裏有三磅C4炸藥，
04:35
They're building a system that ejects these at quarter-second intervals.
91
263000
4000
他們建造了一個系統，每四分之一秒會彈出一個炸藥桶。
04:39
That's my dad in the sport coat there holding the briefcase.
92
267000
3000
照片中穿運動外套、拎著公事包的就是我老爹。
04:42
So, they had a lot of fun doing this. But no children were allowed;
93
270000
3000
他們很樂在其中，不過他們不讓小孩參與。
04:45
my dad could tell me he was building a spaceship
94
273000
3000
我爸只告訴我，他在造太空船，
04:48
and going to go to Saturn,
95
276000
2000
他準備去土星，
04:50
but he could not say anything more about it.
96
278000
2000
但沒再告訴我其他的事情。
04:52
So all my life I have wanted to find this stuff out,
97
280000
2000
所以一直以來，我都想搞清楚這件事，
04:54
and spent the last four years tracking these old guys down.
98
282000
2000
我過去四年時間都在追查當時參與計畫的成員。
04:56
These are stills from the video.
99
284000
2000
這些也是由影片中擷取的照片。
04:58
Jeff Bezos kindly, yesterday, said
100
286000
3000
昨天Jeff Bezos說，
05:01
he'll put this video up on the Amazon site -- some little clip of it. (Applause)
101
289000
3000
他要把這些影片中的一些片段，放到Amazon網站上，
05:04
So, thanks to him.
102
292000
2000
非常感謝他。
05:06
They got quite serious about the engineering of this.
103
294000
2000
他們非常認真的建構太空船。
05:08
The size of that mass, for us, is really large technology
104
296000
4000
就太空船大小來說，這絕對是大科技。
05:12
in a way we're never going to go back to.
105
300000
3000
我們永遠不會再回頭搞這種大計畫。
05:15
If you saw the 1959 ... This is what it would feel like in the passenger compartment;
106
303000
4000
假如在1959年看到這東西，會感覺這就像旅客包廂。
05:19
that's acceleration profile. (Laughter)
107
307000
2000
這是加速度分佈圖，
05:22
And pulse system yield:
108
310000
2000
這是脈衝系統的功率。
05:24
we're looking at 20-kiloton yield for an effect for us of 10 million Newtons.
109
312000
4000
他們希望用相當於2萬噸的爆炸威力來產生一千萬牛頓力。
05:28
Well, here we have a little problem,
110
316000
2000
然而，這兒出了點小問題：
05:30
the radiation doses at the crew station: 700 rads per shot. (Laughter)
111
318000
5000
每次發射就會在機組人員艙內產生高達700雷德的輻射劑量。
05:36
Fission yields during development:
112
324000
2000
發射過程中會產生核分裂：
05:38
they were hoping to get clean bombs -- they didn't.
113
326000
4000
他們想找到無污染的炸彈，不過沒有成功。
05:42
Eyeburn: this is what happens to the people in Miami who are looking up. (Laughter)
114
330000
3000
眼部灼傷 --這情形普遍發在在邁阿密海灘上，仰頭盯著看的人身上。
05:45
Personnel compartment noise: that's not too bad;
115
333000
4000
座艙--注意，還不錯。
05:49
it's very low frequencies, it's basically like these subwoofers.
116
337000
3000
音頻非常低，類似低音炮。
05:52
And now we have ground hazard assessments
117
340000
2000
這是當發射臺爆炸時
05:54
when you have a blow-up on the pad.
118
342000
2000
的地面危害評估。
05:56
Finally, at the very end in 1964, NASA steps in and says,
119
344000
3000
最後，在1964年底，NASA終於介入，他們說：
05:59
"OK, we'll support a feasibility study for a small version
120
347000
3000
“好吧，我們支持小版本的可行性研究，
06:02
that could be launched with Saturn Vs in sections and pieced together."
121
350000
4000
就用土星五號火箭分段發射上去再行組裝。"
06:06
So this is what NASA did, getting an
122
354000
6000
這才是NASA想做的版本，
06:12
eight man version that would go to Mars.
123
360000
2000
只讓八個人前往火星的版本。
06:14
They liked it because the guys who kind of live there would be like, "It's just like
124
362000
2000
NASA喜歡這個設計, 因為太空人可以住在裡面，
06:16
living in a submarine."
125
364000
2000
就像住在潛水艇裡面。
06:18
This is crew compartment. It switches, so what's upside down
126
366000
3000
這是機組人員艙，它會移動，
06:21
is right side up when you go to artificial gravity mode.
127
369000
2000
所以一旦進入人工重力模式時，原本上下顛倒的就會轉正。
06:23
The scientists were still going to go along;
128
371000
2000
他們還是安排了科學家同行，
06:25
they would take seven astronauts and seven scientists.
129
373000
2000
準備讓太空船搭載7個太空員及7個科學家，
06:27
This is a 20 man version for going to Jupiter:
130
375000
3000
這是搭載20人前往木星的版本：
06:30
bunks, storm cellars, exercise room.
131
378000
3000
有床位、防風地窖、運動室等。
06:33
You know, it was going to be a nice long trip.
132
381000
3000
這應該是不錯的長途旅行。
06:36
The Air Force version: here we have a military version.
133
384000
3000
這是空軍版，也就是軍方的版本。
06:39
This is the kind of stuff that's not been declassified,
134
387000
3000
這些是沒有解密的資料，
06:42
just that people managed to sneak home and after,
135
390000
3000
但就是有人偷渡拿回家，
06:45
you know, on their deathbed basically gave me.
136
393000
2000
然後在臨死前轉交給我。
06:48
The sort of artist conceptions:
137
396000
2000
這是藝術家為這計畫所畫的構想圖，
06:50
these are basically PowerPoint presentations
138
398000
3000
它的功用就像現在的Powerpoint一樣，
06:53
given to the Air Force 40 years ago.
139
401000
2000
在40年前是用來演繹給空軍看的。
06:55
Look at the little guys there outside the vehicle.
140
403000
3000
注意看看這個在太空船外的小傢伙。
07:01
And one part of NASA was interested in it
141
409000
2000
NASA中有一部分人對本計畫感興趣，
07:03
but the headquarters in NASA, they killed the project.
142
411000
3000
但是NASA總部大筆一揮砍掉了這個計畫，
07:06
So finally at the end, we can
143
414000
3000
所以，最後，我們只能看到
07:09
see the thing followed its sort of design path
144
417000
3000
這些設計的軌跡，
07:12
right up to 1965 and then all those paths came to a halt.
145
420000
4000
而且到1965年之後就全部中止了。
07:16
Results: none.
146
424000
2000
計畫成果呢？什麼都沒有。
07:18
This project is hereby terminated.
147
426000
2000
計畫由此中止。
07:20
So that's the end. All I can say in closing is,
148
428000
3000
這就是結局。最後我要說的是，
07:23
we heard yesterday that one of the 10 bad things that could happen to us
149
431000
4000
在昨天演講中我們聽到，對人類而言，未來有10個壞消息，
07:27
is an asteroid with our name on it.
150
435000
2000
其中之一是一顆由我們命名的小行星；
07:29
And one of the bad things that could happen to NASA
151
437000
3000
而對NASA來說，壞消息是
07:32
is if that asteroid shows up with our name on it nine months out
152
440000
3000
這顆行星將在九個月以後撞到我們，
07:35
and everybody says, "Well, what are we going to do?"
153
443000
3000
人們會說：“我們該怎麼辦呀？”
07:38
And Orion is really one of the only, if not the only,
154
446000
4000
這時候即使獵戶座計畫不是唯一的解決方案，
07:42
off-the-shelf technologies that could do something. (Laughter)
155
450000
3000
卻也至少是現成的解決方案之一。
07:48
So I'm going to tell you the good news and the bad news.
156
456000
2000
所以我要告訴大家一個好消息和一個壞消息。
07:50
The good news is that NASA has a small, secret
157
458000
5000
好消息是，NASA有一個小的、秘密的
07:55
contingency plan division that is looking at this,
158
463000
3000
應變計畫部門注意到這件事了，
07:58
trying to keep knowledge of Orion preserved in the event of such a misfortune.
159
466000
5000
他們儘量保存獵戶座計畫相關的知識，以便應付這類的災難。
08:03
Maybe keep a few little bombs of plutonium on the side.
160
471000
3000
可能還保存了一些鈽彈頭也說不定。
08:06
That's the good news. The bad news is,
161
474000
2000
這是好消息。壞消息是，
08:08
when I got in contact with these people
162
476000
2000
當我聯繫這些人，
08:10
to try and get some documents from them,
163
478000
2000
向他們要一些資料的時候，
08:12
they went crazy because I had all this stuff that they don't have,
164
480000
3000
他們顯得很擔心，因為我有的資料他們都沒有。
08:15
and NASA purchased 1,759 pages of this stuff from me. (Laughter)
165
483000
5000
所以NASA從我這裡買走了1759頁的資料。
08:20
So that's the state we're at: it's not very good.
166
488000
3000
這就是目前的狀況。情況好像不太妙。
08:24
(Applause)
167
492000
2000
（鼓掌）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
George Dyson - Historian of scienceIn telling stories of technologies and the individuals who created them, George Dyson takes a clear-eyed view of our scientific past -- while illuminating what lies ahead.
Why you should listen
The development of the Aleutian kayak, its adaptation by Russians in the 18th and 19th centuries, and his own redevelopment of the craft in the 1970s was chronicled in George Dyson’s Baidarka: The Kayak of 1986. His 1997 Darwin Among the Machines: The Evolution of Global Intelligence (“the last book about the Internet written without the Internet”) explored the history and prehistory of digital computing and telecommunications as a manifestation of the convergent destiny of organisms and machines.
Project Orion: The True Story of the Atomic Spaceship, published in 2002, assembled first-person interviews and recently declassified documents to tell the story of a path not taken into space: a nuclear-powered spaceship whose objective was to land a party of 100 people on Mars four years before we landed two people on the Moon. Turing's Cathedral: The Origins of the Digital Universe, published in 2012, illuminated the transition from numbers that mean things to numbers that do things in the aftermath of World War II.
Dyson’s current project, Analogia, is a semi-autobiographical reflection on how analog computation is re-establishing control over the digital world.
George Dyson | Speaker | TED.com