TED2015
David Rothkopf: How fear drives American politics
Dejvid Rotkopf (David Rothkopf): Kako strah upravlja američkom politikom
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Čini li vam se da Vašington nema novih ideja? Umesto gledanja u budućnost, ponekad se čini da se američki politički establišment rado povlači u strah i voljno neznanje. Novinar Dejvid Rotkopf nam izlaže nekoliko glavnih pitanja kojima američko rukovodstvo ne želi da se bavi - od sajber kriminala, preko novih tehnologija koje potresaju svet do realnosti modernog totalnog rata - i priziva novu viziju koja će strah ostaviti po strani.
David Rothkopf - Foreign policy strategist
With books and strategies, David Rothkopf helps people navigate the perils and opportunities of our contemporary geopolitical landscape. Full bio
With books and strategies, David Rothkopf helps people navigate the perils and opportunities of our contemporary geopolitical landscape. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
What I'd like to do
is talk to you a little bit about fear
is talk to you a little bit about fear
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Želeo bih da vam govorim
na kratko o strahu
na kratko o strahu
00:16
and the cost of fear
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i ceni straha
00:18
and the age of fear
from which we are now emerging.
from which we are now emerging.
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i o dobu straha
iz koga trenutno izranjamo.
iz koga trenutno izranjamo.
00:22
I would like you to feel comfortable
with my doing that
with my doing that
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Želim da se osećate ugodno
dok ja to činim
dok ja to činim
00:26
by letting you know that I know something
about fear and anxiety.
about fear and anxiety.
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tako što ću vas obavestiti
da znam ponešto o strahu i nespokoju.
da znam ponešto o strahu i nespokoju.
00:31
I'm a Jewish guy from New Jersey.
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Ja sam Jevrej iz Nju Džerzija.
00:33
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
00:35
I could worry before I could walk.
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Bio sam zabrinut
pre nego što sam prohodao.
pre nego što sam prohodao.
00:37
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
00:39
Please, applaud that.
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Izvolite, aplaudirajte tome.
00:41
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
00:44
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
00:46
But I also grew up in a time
where there was something to fear.
where there was something to fear.
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Ali sam takođe odrastao u vremenu
u kome je bilo razloga za strah.
u kome je bilo razloga za strah.
00:52
We were brought out in the hall
when I was a little kid
when I was a little kid
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Kada sam bio maleno dete,
izveli su nas u hodnik
izveli su nas u hodnik
00:56
and taught how to put
our coats over our heads
our coats over our heads
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i učili nas kako da stavljamo
kapute preko glave
kapute preko glave
00:59
to protect us from global
thermonuclear war.
thermonuclear war.
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kako bismo se zaštitili
od globalnog termonuklearnog rata.
od globalnog termonuklearnog rata.
01:03
Now even my seven-year-old brain
knew that wasn't going to work.
knew that wasn't going to work.
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E sad, čak i moj mozak sedmogodišnjaka
je znao da to neće da funkcioniše.
je znao da to neće da funkcioniše.
01:09
But I also knew
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Ali sam takođe znao
01:10
that global thermonuclear war
was something to be concerned with.
was something to be concerned with.
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da je globalni termonuklearni rat
nešto zbog čega valja biti zabrinut.
nešto zbog čega valja biti zabrinut.
01:15
And yet, despite the fact
that we lived for 50 years
that we lived for 50 years
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Pa ipak, uprkos činjenici
da smo živeli 50 godina
da smo živeli 50 godina
01:19
with the threat of such a war,
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s pretnjom od takvog rata,
01:21
the response of our government
and of our society
and of our society
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odgovor naše vlade i našeg društva
01:25
was to do wonderful things.
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je bio u vidu neverovatnih podviga.
01:28
We created the space program
in response to that.
in response to that.
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Stvorili smo svemirski program
kao odgovor na to.
kao odgovor na to.
01:31
We built our highway system
in response to that.
in response to that.
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Sagradili smo sistem auto-puteva
kao odgovor na to.
kao odgovor na to.
01:34
We created the Internet
in response to that.
in response to that.
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Stvorili smo internet kao odgovor na to.
01:37
So sometimes fear can produce
a constructive response.
a constructive response.
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Dakle, strah ponekad može da izazove
konstruktivan odgovor.
konstruktivan odgovor.
01:42
But sometimes it can produce
an un-constructive response.
an un-constructive response.
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Ali ponekad može da izazove
nekonstruktivan odgovor.
nekonstruktivan odgovor.
01:47
On September 11, 2001,
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11. septembra 2001,
01:49
19 guys took over four airplanes
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19 momaka je preuzelo četiri naša aviona
01:54
and flew them into a couple of buildings.
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i s njima su uleteli u nekoliko zgrada.
01:57
They exacted a horrible toll.
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Iznudili su užasan danak.
02:00
It is not for us to minimize
what that toll was.
what that toll was.
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Nije na nama da umanjujemo njegov značaj.
02:04
But the response that we had
was clearly disproportionate --
was clearly disproportionate --
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Ali naš odgovor je bio
očigledno neproporcionalan -
očigledno neproporcionalan -
02:11
disproportionate to the point
of verging on the unhinged.
of verging on the unhinged.
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neproporcionalan do tačke
koja se graniči s ludilom.
koja se graniči s ludilom.
02:16
We rearranged the national security
apparatus of the United States
apparatus of the United States
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Preuredili smo aparaturu
državne bezbednosti SAD-a
državne bezbednosti SAD-a
02:20
and of many governments
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i mnogih ministarstava
02:22
to address a threat that,
at the time that those attacks took place,
at the time that those attacks took place,
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kako bismo se bavili pretnjom
koja je u vreme tih napada
koja je u vreme tih napada
02:27
was quite limited.
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bila prilično ograničena.
02:28
In fact, according to our
intelligence services,
intelligence services,
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Zapravo, prema našim
službama bezbednosti,
službama bezbednosti,
02:32
on September 11, 2001,
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11. septembra 2001.
02:35
there were 100 members of core Al-Qaeda.
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imali smo 100 članova matične Al-Kaide.
02:39
There were just a few thousand terrorists.
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Bilo je samo nekoliko hiljada terorista.
02:42
They posed an existential threat
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Nisu predstavljali
egzistencijalnu opasnost
egzistencijalnu opasnost
02:45
to no one.
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bilo kome.
02:47
But we rearranged our entire
national security apparatus
national security apparatus
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Ali mi smo preuredili našu celokupnu
aparaturu državne bezbednosti
aparaturu državne bezbednosti
02:52
in the most sweeping way
since the end of the Second World War.
since the end of the Second World War.
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na najtemeljniji mogući način
od završetka Drugog svetskog rata.
od završetka Drugog svetskog rata.
02:56
We launched two wars.
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Pokrenuli smo dva rata.
02:58
We spent trillions of dollars.
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Potrošili trilione dolara.
03:00
We suspended our values.
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Suspendovali smo naše vrednosti.
03:02
We violated international law.
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Prekršili međunarodni zakon.
03:04
We embraced torture.
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Prigrlili mučenje.
03:06
We embraced the idea
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Prigrlili pretpostavku
03:07
that if these 19 guys could do this,
anybody could do it.
anybody could do it.
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da, ako je ovih 19 momaka
moglo da uradi to, može svako.
moglo da uradi to, može svako.
03:11
And therefore,
for the first time in history,
for the first time in history,
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I shodno tome, prvi put u istoriji
03:14
we were seeing everybody as a threat.
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na svakoga smo gledali kao na pretnju.
03:17
And what was the result of that?
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A koji su rezultati toga?
03:19
Surveillance programs that listened in
on the emails and phone calls
on the emails and phone calls
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Programi za nadzor koji su prisluškivali
mejlove i telefonske pozive
mejlove i telefonske pozive
03:23
of entire countries --
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čitavih država -
03:25
hundreds of millions of people --
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stotina miliona ljudi -
03:27
setting aside whether
those countries were our allies,
those countries were our allies,
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zanemarujući to
da li su te države bile naši saveznici,
da li su te države bile naši saveznici,
03:30
setting aside what our interests were.
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zanemarujući naše interese.
03:34
I would argue that 15 years later,
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Tvrdio bih da 15 godina kasnije,
03:38
since today there are more terrorists,
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pošto danas imamo više terorista,
03:40
more terrorist attacks,
more terrorist casualties --
more terrorist casualties --
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više terorističkih napada,
više žrtava terorizma -
više žrtava terorizma -
03:44
this by the count
of the U.S. State Department --
of the U.S. State Department --
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prema informacijama
američkog Stejt departmenta -
američkog Stejt departmenta -
03:47
since today the region
from which those attacks emanate
from which those attacks emanate
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pošto je danas region
iz koga ti napadi potiču
iz koga ti napadi potiču
03:50
is more unstable
than at any time in its history,
than at any time in its history,
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nestabilniji nego ikad u istoriji,
03:54
since the Flood, perhaps,
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od potopa, možda,
03:57
we have not succeeded in our response.
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naš odgovor je bio neuspešan.
04:02
Now you have to ask,
where did we go wrong?
where did we go wrong?
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Morate da se zapitate gde smo pogrešili?
04:04
What did we do?
What was the mistake that was made?
What was the mistake that was made?
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Šta smo uradili? Koju smo grešku počinili?
04:06
And you might say, well look,
Washington is a dysfunctional place.
Washington is a dysfunctional place.
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I možda ćete reći, pazite,
Vašington je nefunkcionalno mesto.
Vašington je nefunkcionalno mesto.
04:10
There are political food fights.
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Imamo politička prepucavanja.
04:12
We've turned our discourse
into a cage match.
into a cage match.
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Pretvorili smo naš diskurs
u obračune u kavezu.
u obračune u kavezu.
04:16
And that's true.
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To je istina.
04:18
But there are bigger problems,
believe it or not, than that dysfunction,
believe it or not, than that dysfunction,
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Ali imamo veće probleme,
verovali ili ne, od te nefunkcionalnosti,
verovali ili ne, od te nefunkcionalnosti,
04:21
even though I would argue
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iako bih tvrdio
04:23
that dysfunction that makes it impossible
to get anything done
to get anything done
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da je ta nefunkcionalnost,
zbog koje je nemoguće postići bilo šta,
zbog koje je nemoguće postići bilo šta,
04:28
in the richest and most powerful
country in the world
country in the world
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u najbogatijoj i najmoćnijoj
državi na svetu
državi na svetu
04:31
is far more dangerous than anything
that a group like ISIS could do,
that a group like ISIS could do,
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daleko opasnija od bilo čega
što grupe, poput ISIS-a mogu da urade
što grupe, poput ISIS-a mogu da urade
04:37
because it stops us in our tracks
and it keeps us from progress.
and it keeps us from progress.
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jer nas to zakopava u mestu
i sprečava naš napredak.
i sprečava naš napredak.
04:42
But there are other problems.
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Ali imamo i druge probleme.
04:44
And the other problems
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A drugi problemi
04:45
came from the fact that in Washington
and in many capitals right now,
and in many capitals right now,
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proizilaze iz činjenice da u Vašingtonu
i mnogim glavnim gradovima trenutno
i mnogim glavnim gradovima trenutno
04:48
we're in a creativity crisis.
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imamo krizu kreativnosti.
04:51
In Washington, in think tanks,
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U Vašingtonu,
u sektorima za inovacije,
u sektorima za inovacije,
04:53
where people are supposed to be
thinking of new ideas,
thinking of new ideas,
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gde bi ljudi trebalo
da dolaze do novih ideja,
da dolaze do novih ideja,
04:56
you don't get bold new ideas,
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nemate odvažne nove ideje
04:59
because if you offer up a bold new idea,
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jer ako ponudite odvažnu novu ideju,
05:01
not only are you attacked on Twitter,
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ne samo da vas napadaju na Tviteru,
05:03
but you will not get confirmed
in a government job.
in a government job.
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već vam neće poveriti državni posao.
05:07
Because we are reactive to the heightened
venom of the political debate,
venom of the political debate,
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Jer reagujemo na naglašeni
otrov političkih debata,
otrov političkih debata,
05:12
you get governments that have
an us-versus-them mentality,
an us-versus-them mentality,
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imate vlade koje imaju
mi-protiv-njih mentalitet,
mi-protiv-njih mentalitet,
05:15
tiny groups of people making decisions.
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malene grupe ljudi koje donose odluke.
05:17
When you sit in a room with a small group
of people making decisions,
of people making decisions,
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Kada sedite u prostoriji
s malom grupom ljudi koji donose odluke,
s malom grupom ljudi koji donose odluke,
05:21
what do you get?
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šta dobijate?
05:22
You get groupthink.
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Dobijate grupno razmišljanje.
05:24
Everybody has the same worldview,
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Svi imaju isti pogled na svet
05:25
and any view from outside of the group
is seen as a threat.
is seen as a threat.
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i svaki pogled van grupe
se posmatra kao pretnja.
se posmatra kao pretnja.
05:29
That's a danger.
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To je opasno.
05:31
You also have processes
that become reactive to news cycles.
that become reactive to news cycles.
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Takođe imate procese
koji su reakcija na cikluse vesti.
koji su reakcija na cikluse vesti.
05:35
And so the parts of the U.S. government
that do foresight, that look forward,
that do foresight, that look forward,
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Pa tako delovi američke vlade koji se bave
predviđanjima, koji gledaju napred,
predviđanjima, koji gledaju napred,
05:39
that do strategy --
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koji prave strategije -
05:41
the parts in other governments
that do this -- can't do it,
that do this -- can't do it,
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delovi drugih vlada
koji se bave ovim - ne mogu to da rade
koji se bave ovim - ne mogu to da rade
05:43
because they're reacting
to the news cycle.
to the news cycle.
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jer reaguju na vesti.
05:46
And so we're not looking ahead.
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Pa tako mi ne gledamo napred.
05:48
On 9/11, we had a crisis
because we were looking the wrong way.
because we were looking the wrong way.
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11. septembra smo imali krizu
jer smo gledali u pogrešnom smeru.
jer smo gledali u pogrešnom smeru.
05:52
Today we have a crisis because,
because of 9/11,
because of 9/11,
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Danas imamo krizu jer zbog 11. septembra
05:55
we are still looking
in the wrong direction,
in the wrong direction,
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i dalje gledamo u pogrešnom smeru,
05:58
and we know because we see
transformational trends on the horizon
transformational trends on the horizon
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a znamo to jer vidimo
trendove preobražaja na horizontu
trendove preobražaja na horizontu
06:04
that are far more important
than what we saw on 9/11;
than what we saw on 9/11;
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koji su daleko važniji
od onoga što smo videli 11. septembra;
od onoga što smo videli 11. septembra;
06:09
far more important than the threat
posed by these terrorists;
posed by these terrorists;
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daleko važniji od pretnje
koju predstavljaju teroristi;
koju predstavljaju teroristi;
06:13
far more important even
than the instability that we've got
than the instability that we've got
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daleko važnije čak i od
nestabilnosti koju imamo
nestabilnosti koju imamo
06:16
in some areas of the world
that are racked by instability today.
that are racked by instability today.
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u nekim delovima sveta
koje ovih dana potresa nestabilnost.
koje ovih dana potresa nestabilnost.
06:21
In fact, the things that we are seeing
in those parts of the world
in those parts of the world
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Zapravo, ono što viđamo
u tim delovima sveta
u tim delovima sveta
06:25
may be symptoms.
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su možda simptomi.
06:28
They may be a reaction to bigger trends.
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Možda su reakcije na veće trendove.
06:32
And if we are treating the symptom
and ignoring the bigger trend,
and ignoring the bigger trend,
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A ako tretiramo simptom,
ignorišući širi trend,
ignorišući širi trend,
06:37
then we've got far bigger
problems to deal with.
problems to deal with.
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onda imamo daleko veće probleme
sa kojima se suočavamo.
sa kojima se suočavamo.
06:41
And so what are those trends?
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Pa koji su to trendovi?
06:43
Well, to a group like you,
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Pa, za grupe, poput vas,
06:45
the trends are apparent.
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trendovi su očigledni.
06:48
We are living at a moment
in which the very fabric of human society
in which the very fabric of human society
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Živimo u momentu
u kom se samo tkanje ljudskog društva
u kom se samo tkanje ljudskog društva
06:53
is being rewoven.
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nanovo tka.
06:57
If you saw the cover of The Economist
a couple of days ago --
a couple of days ago --
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Ako ste videli naslovnu stranu
"Ekonomista" od pre nekoliko dana -
"Ekonomista" od pre nekoliko dana -
07:00
it said that 80 percent
of the people on the planet,
of the people on the planet,
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kažu da će 80% ljudi na planeti
07:03
by the year 2020, would have a smartphone.
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do 2020. godine imati pametni telefon.
07:07
They would have a small computer
connected to the Internet in their pocket.
connected to the Internet in their pocket.
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Imaće maleni kompjuter
povezan na internet u svom džepu.
povezan na internet u svom džepu.
07:11
In most of Africa, the cell phone
penetration rate is 80 percent.
penetration rate is 80 percent.
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U većem delu Afrike
stopa prodora mobilne tehnologije je 80%.
stopa prodora mobilne tehnologije je 80%.
07:17
We passed the point last October
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Prošlog oktobra smo prešli tačku
07:20
when there were more
mobile cellular devices, SIM cards,
mobile cellular devices, SIM cards,
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kada smo imali u svetu
više mobilnih telefona, SIM kartica,
više mobilnih telefona, SIM kartica,
07:24
out in the world than there were people.
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nego što imamo ljudi.
07:27
We are within years
of a profound moment in our history,
of a profound moment in our history,
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Godine nas dele
od ključnog momenta u našoj istoriji
od ključnog momenta u našoj istoriji
07:33
when effectively every single
human being on the planet
human being on the planet
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kada će praktično
svako ljudsko biće na planeti
svako ljudsko biće na planeti
07:38
is going to be part of a man-made
system for the first time,
system for the first time,
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prvi put da bude
deo veštački napravljenog sistema
deo veštački napravljenog sistema
07:43
able to touch anyone else --
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2041
koji je u stanju da dotakne bilo koga -
07:45
touch them for good, touch them for ill.
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da ga dotakne na dobar ili loš način.
07:47
And the changes associated with that
are changing the very nature
are changing the very nature
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A promene koje idu uz to
menjaju samu prirodu
menjaju samu prirodu
07:53
of every aspect of governance
and life on the planet
and life on the planet
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svakog aspekta našeg upravljanja
i života na planeti
i života na planeti
07:57
in ways that our leaders
ought to be thinking about,
ought to be thinking about,
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465474
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na načine na koje bi naše vođe
trebalo da razmišljaju,
trebalo da razmišljaju,
08:00
when they're thinking about
these immediate threats.
these immediate threats.
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kada misle na sve te trenutne pretnje.
08:03
On the security side,
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Kada je bezbednost u pitanju,
08:05
we've come out of a Cold War in which
it was too costly to fight a nuclear war,
it was too costly to fight a nuclear war,
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5504
izašli smo iz Hladnog rata u kome je bilo
suviše skupo boriti se u nuklearnom ratu,
suviše skupo boriti se u nuklearnom ratu,
08:11
and so we didn't,
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pa i nismo
08:12
to a period that I call
Cool War, cyber war,
Cool War, cyber war,
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3817
u period, koji ja zovem
Rashlađenim ratom, sajber ratom,
Rashlađenim ratom, sajber ratom,
08:16
where the costs of conflict are actually
so low, that we may never stop.
so low, that we may never stop.
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5051
gde je cena konflikata zapravo
toliko niska da možda nikada nećemo stati.
toliko niska da možda nikada nećemo stati.
08:22
We may enter a period of constant warfare,
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Možda uđemo u period stalnog ratovanja,
08:24
and we know this because
we've been in it for several years.
we've been in it for several years.
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a znamo to jer smo u njemu
već nekoliko godina.
već nekoliko godina.
08:29
And yet, we don't have the basic doctrines
to guide us in this regard.
to guide us in this regard.
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Pa ipak, nemamo osnovne doktrine
kojima bismo se vodili u ovom slučaju.
kojima bismo se vodili u ovom slučaju.
08:35
We don't have the basic ideas formulated.
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Nemamo formulisane osnovne ideje.
08:37
If someone attacks us with a cyber attack,
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Ako nas neko napadne sajber napadom,
08:39
do have the ability to respond
with a kinetic attack?
with a kinetic attack?
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imamo li mogućnost da odgovorimo
kinetičkim napadom?
kinetičkim napadom?
08:43
We don't know.
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Ne znamo.
08:45
If somebody launches a cyber attack,
how do we deter them?
how do we deter them?
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Ako neko pokrene sajber napad,
kako da ga odbijemo?
kako da ga odbijemo?
08:49
When China launched
a series of cyber attacks,
a series of cyber attacks,
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2187
Kada je Kina pokrenula niz sajber napada,
08:51
what did the U.S. government do?
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šta je uradila vlada SAD?
08:53
It said, we're going to indict
a few of these Chinese guys,
a few of these Chinese guys,
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3985
Rekla je da ćemo podići optužnicu
protiv nekoliko kineskih momaka,
protiv nekoliko kineskih momaka,
08:57
who are never coming to America.
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koji nikada neće kročiti u Ameriku.
08:59
They're never going to be anywhere near
a law enforcement officer
a law enforcement officer
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Nikada neće biti u blizini policajca
09:03
who's going to take them into custody.
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2005
koji bi ih odveo u pritvor.
09:06
It's a gesture -- it's not a deterrent.
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To je gest - nije zastrašivanje.
09:09
Special forces operators
out there in the field today
out there in the field today
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3798
Operateri specijalnih snaga
koji su danas na terenu
koji su danas na terenu
09:13
discover that small groups
of insurgents with cell phones
of insurgents with cell phones
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su otkrili da male grupe
pobunjenika sa mobilnim telefonima
pobunjenika sa mobilnim telefonima
09:18
have access to satellite imagery
that once only superpowers had.
that once only superpowers had.
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imaju pristup satelitskim snimcima
koje su nekad imale samo supersile.
koje su nekad imale samo supersile.
09:23
In fact, if you've got a cell phone,
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Zapravo, ako imate mobilni telefon,
09:25
you've got access to power
that a superpower didn't have,
that a superpower didn't have,
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3316
imate moć koju supersile nisu imale
09:29
and would have highly
classified 10 years ago.
classified 10 years ago.
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i koja bi bila veoma tajna pre 10 godina.
09:31
In my cell phone,
I have an app that tells me
I have an app that tells me
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U svom telefonu imam aplikaciju
koja me obaveštava
koja me obaveštava
09:34
where every plane in the world is,
and its altitude, and its speed,
and its altitude, and its speed,
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gde se nalazi svaki avion na svetu,
njegovu visinu, brzinu
njegovu visinu, brzinu
09:38
and what kind of aircraft it is,
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1822
i koji je tip vazduhoplova,
09:40
and where it's going
and where it's landing.
and where it's landing.
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kuda ide i gde će da sleti.
09:44
They have apps that allow them to know
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Postoje aplikacije
koje teroristima omogućavaju da znaju
koje teroristima omogućavaju da znaju
09:49
what their adversary is about to do.
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šta njihovi protivnici smeraju.
09:51
They're using these tools in new ways.
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Koriste ove alate na nove načine.
09:53
When a cafe in Sydney
was taken over by a terrorist,
was taken over by a terrorist,
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4114
Kada su kafić u Sidneju
preuzeli teroristi,
preuzeli teroristi,
09:57
he went in with a rifle...
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2293
ušao je sa puškom...
10:00
and an iPad.
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1243
u ajpedom.
10:01
And the weapon was the iPad.
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2561
A oružje je bilo ajped.
10:04
Because he captured people,
he terrorized them,
he terrorized them,
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Jer je zarobio ljude, terorisao ih,
10:08
he pointed the iPad at them,
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2705
uperio ajped u njih,
10:11
and then he took the video
and he put it on the Internet,
and he put it on the Internet,
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599051
2672
a potom je napravio snimak
i postavio ga na internet
i postavio ga na internet
10:13
and he took over the world's media.
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2023
i preuzeo je svetske medije.
10:17
But it doesn't just affect
the security side.
the security side.
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3468
Ali to ne utiče samo na sigurnosnu stranu.
10:22
The relations between great powers --
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1829
Odnos među velikim silama -
10:23
we thought we were past the bipolar era.
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611985
2365
mislili smo da smo prevazišli
bipolarno doba.
bipolarno doba.
10:27
We thought we were in a unipolar world,
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615259
1874
Mislil smo da smo u unipolarnom svetu,
10:29
where all the big issues were resolved.
187
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1894
gde su sva velika pitanja razrešena.
10:31
Remember? It was the end of history.
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1717
Sećate li se? Beše to kraj istorije.
10:34
But we're not.
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1296
Ali nismo.
10:35
We're now seeing that our
basic assumptions about the Internet --
basic assumptions about the Internet --
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623449
4388
Sada vidimo da naše
osnovne pretpostavke o internetu -
osnovne pretpostavke o internetu -
10:39
that it was going to connect us,
weave society together --
weave society together --
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4061
da će nas povezati, zašiti društvo -
10:43
are not necessarily true.
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631946
1656
nisu nužno istinite.
10:46
In countries like China,
you have the Great Firewall of China.
you have the Great Firewall of China.
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3196
U državama, poput Kine, imate
veliki kineski zaštitni zid.
veliki kineski zaštitni zid.
10:49
You've got countries saying no,
if the Internet happens within our borders
if the Internet happens within our borders
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637303
3520
Imate države koje govore ne,
ako se internet desi unutar naših granica,
ako se internet desi unutar naših granica,
10:52
we control it within our borders.
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1575
mi ćemo ga kontrolisati tu.
Mi kontrolišemo sadržaj.
Mi ćemo kontrolisati našu bezbednost.
Mi ćemo kontrolisati našu bezbednost.
10:54
We control the content.
We are going to control our security.
We are going to control our security.
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2860
10:57
We are going to manage that Internet.
197
645330
1766
Mi ćemo da upravljamo internetom.
10:59
We are going to say what can be on it.
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647120
1813
Mi ćemo odlučivati šta može da sadrži.
11:00
We're going to set
a different set of rules.
a different set of rules.
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648957
2051
Mi ćemo postaviti drugačiji niz pravila.
11:03
Now you might think,
well, that's just China.
well, that's just China.
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2097
Sad, možda mislite, pa to je samo Kina.
11:05
But it's not just China.
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653153
1714
Ali nije to samo Kina.
11:07
It's China, India, Russia.
202
655651
2729
To su Kina, Indija, Rusija.
11:10
It's Saudi Arabia,
it's Singapore, it's Brazil.
it's Singapore, it's Brazil.
203
658708
3100
To je Saudijska Arabija,
to je Singapur, to je Brazil.
to je Singapur, to je Brazil.
11:13
After the NSA scandal, the Russians,
the Chinese, the Indians, the Brazilians,
the Chinese, the Indians, the Brazilians,
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661832
4514
Nakon NSA skandala,
Rusi, Kinezi, Indijci, Brazilci,
Rusi, Kinezi, Indijci, Brazilci,
11:18
they said, let's create
a new Internet backbone,
a new Internet backbone,
205
666370
3055
rekli su, napravimo internetu novu kičmu
11:21
because we can't be dependent
on this other one.
on this other one.
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2482
jer ne možemo
da se oslanjamo na postojeću.
da se oslanjamo na postojeću.
11:23
And so all of a sudden, what do you have?
207
671955
1969
I iznenada, šta imamo?
11:26
You have a new bipolar world
208
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2499
Imamo novi bipolarni svet
11:28
in which cyber-internationalism,
209
676923
2191
u kome je sajber internacionalizam,
11:31
our belief,
210
679138
1151
naše ubeđenje,
11:32
is challenged by cyber-nationalism,
211
680313
2837
izazvano sajber nacionalizmom,
11:35
another belief.
212
683174
1265
drugim ubeđenjem.
11:37
We are seeing these changes
everywhere we look.
everywhere we look.
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685593
3171
Vidimo ove promene
gde god da se osvrnemo.
gde god da se osvrnemo.
Vidimo pojavu novca
u vidu kredita za mobilni.
u vidu kredita za mobilni.
11:41
We are seeing the advent of mobile money.
214
689629
1978
11:43
It's happening in the places
you wouldn't expect.
you wouldn't expect.
215
691631
2297
Dešava se na mestima
gde to ne biste očekivali.
gde to ne biste očekivali.
11:45
It's happening in Kenya and Tanzania,
216
693952
2377
Dešava se u Keniji i Tanzaniji
11:48
where millions of people who haven't
had access to financial services
had access to financial services
217
696353
3269
gde milioni ljudi koji nisu imali pristup
finansijskim uslugama,
finansijskim uslugama,
11:51
now conduct all those
services on their phones.
services on their phones.
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699646
2495
sada sve te usluge
obavljaju preko svojih telefona.
obavljaju preko svojih telefona.
11:54
There are 2.5 million people
who don't have financial service access
who don't have financial service access
219
702702
4500
2,5 miliona ljudi koji nemaju pristup
finansijskim uslugama,
finansijskim uslugama,
11:59
that are going to get it soon.
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707226
2016
uskoro će ga dobiti.
12:01
A billion of them are going
to have the ability to access it
to have the ability to access it
221
709740
2813
Milijardu njih će uskoro
dobiti mogućnost da im pristupe
dobiti mogućnost da im pristupe
12:04
on their cell phone soon.
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712577
1195
preko svojih mobilnih.
12:05
It's not just going to give them
the ability to bank.
the ability to bank.
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2853
Neće im to samo dati pristup bankarstvu.
12:08
It's going to change
what monetary policy is.
what monetary policy is.
224
716957
2877
To će da promeni monetarnu politiku.
12:11
It's going to change what money is.
225
719858
2636
Promeniće značenje novca.
12:15
Education is changing in the same way.
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723262
2171
Obrazovanje se menja na isti način.
12:18
Healthcare is changing in the same way.
227
726430
2461
Zdravstvo se menja na isti način.
12:20
How government services are delivered
is changing in the same way.
is changing in the same way.
228
728915
3494
Delovanje vladinih službi
će se promeniti na isti način.
će se promeniti na isti način.
12:25
And yet, in Washington, we are debating
229
733607
4262
Pa ipak, u Vašingtonu raspravljamo
12:29
whether to call the terrorist group
that has taken over Syria and Iraq
that has taken over Syria and Iraq
230
737893
5465
da li da nazovemo terorističke grupe
koje su osvojile Siriju i Irak
koje su osvojile Siriju i Irak
12:35
ISIS or ISIL or Islamic State.
231
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4160
ISIS ili ISIL ili Islamska država.
12:40
We are trying to determine
232
748540
3111
Pokušavamo da odredimo
12:43
how much we want to give
in a negotiation with the Iranians
in a negotiation with the Iranians
233
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5289
koliko da popustimo
u pregovorima sa Irancima
u pregovorima sa Irancima
12:48
on a nuclear deal which deals
with the technologies of 50 years ago,
with the technologies of 50 years ago,
234
756988
4799
u nuklearnom dogovoru koji se bavi
tehnologijom starom 50 godina,
tehnologijom starom 50 godina,
12:53
when in fact, we know that the Iranians
right now are engaged in cyber war with us
right now are engaged in cyber war with us
235
761811
5358
kada zapravo znamo da su Iranci
trenutno zauzeti sajber ratovanjem s nama,
trenutno zauzeti sajber ratovanjem s nama,
12:59
and we're ignoring it, partially
because businesses are not willing
because businesses are not willing
236
767193
6034
a mi to ignorišemo, delimično
jer kompanije nisu spremne
jer kompanije nisu spremne
13:05
to talk about the attacks
that are being waged on them.
that are being waged on them.
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773251
3118
da govore o napadima
koji se vode protiv njih.
koji se vode protiv njih.
13:09
And that gets us to another breakdown
238
777399
2809
A to nas dovodi do novog kraha
13:12
that's crucial,
239
780232
1224
koji je ključan,
13:13
and another breakdown that couldn't be
more important to a group like this,
more important to a group like this,
240
781480
3711
a taj krah je najvažniji
za grupe, poput ove ovde,
za grupe, poput ove ovde,
13:17
because the growth of America
and real American national security
and real American national security
241
785215
3652
jer američki rast
i istinska američka državna bezbednost
i istinska američka državna bezbednost
13:20
and all of the things that drove progress
even during the Cold War,
even during the Cold War,
242
788891
4441
i sve stvari koje su dovele do napretka
čak i tokom Hladnog rata
čak i tokom Hladnog rata
13:25
was a public-private partnership
between science, technology and government
between science, technology and government
243
793356
4751
bile su deo javno-privatnog partnerstva
između nauke, tehnologije i vlade
između nauke, tehnologije i vlade
13:30
that began when Thomas Jefferson
sat alone in his laboratory
sat alone in his laboratory
244
798131
3508
koji je počeo kada je Tomas Džeferson
sedeo sam u svojoj laboratoriji,
sedeo sam u svojoj laboratoriji,
13:33
inventing new things.
245
801663
1843
izmišljajući novotarije.
13:36
But it was the canals
and railroads and telegraph;
and railroads and telegraph;
246
804528
3810
Ali to su bili kanali,
železnice i telegraf;
železnice i telegraf;
13:40
it was radar and the Internet.
247
808362
2316
to je bio radar i internet.
13:43
It was Tang, the breakfast drink --
248
811129
2284
To je bio Tang, piće uz doručak -
13:45
probably not the most important
of those developments.
of those developments.
249
813437
2877
verovatno ne najvažnije od ovih otkrića.
13:48
But what you had was
a partnership and a dialogue,
a partnership and a dialogue,
250
816795
2879
Ali imali ste partnerstvo i dijalog,
13:51
and the dialogue has broken down.
251
819698
2265
a dijalog se raspao.
13:53
It's broken down because in Washington,
252
821987
2379
Raspao se jer se u Vašingtonu smatra
13:56
less government is considered more.
253
824390
1766
da što manje upravljate, to bolje
13:58
It's broken down because there is,
believe it or not,
believe it or not,
254
826180
2479
Raspao se jer u Vašingtonu imamo,
verovali ili ne,
verovali ili ne,
14:00
in Washington, a war on science --
255
828683
1840
rat protiv nauke -
14:02
despite the fact that
in all of human history,
in all of human history,
256
830547
3039
uprkos činjenici
da u čitavoj ljudskoj istoriji
da u čitavoj ljudskoj istoriji
14:05
every time anyone has waged
a war on science,
a war on science,
257
833610
2960
svaki put kad je neko vodio
rat protiv nauke,
rat protiv nauke,
14:08
science has won.
258
836594
1601
nauka je pobedila.
14:11
(Applause)
259
839463
4927
(Aplauz)
14:16
But we have a government
that doesn't want to listen,
that doesn't want to listen,
260
844712
4196
Ali mi imamo vladu koja ne želi da sluša,
14:20
that doesn't have people
at the highest levels
at the highest levels
261
848932
2159
koja nema ljude na najvišim instancama
14:23
that understand this.
262
851115
1154
koji razumeju ovo.
14:24
In the nuclear age,
263
852293
1151
U nuklearnom dobu,
kada smo imali ljude na seniorskim
pozicijama na poslovima bezbednosti,
pozicijama na poslovima bezbednosti,
14:25
when there were people
in senior national security jobs,
in senior national security jobs,
264
853468
3167
14:28
they were expected to speak throw-weight.
265
856659
3028
od njih se očekivalo
da govore o balističkim merama.
da govore o balističkim merama.
14:32
They were expected to know
the lingo, the vocabulary.
the lingo, the vocabulary.
266
860005
3018
Od njih se očekivalo
da znaju žargon, rečnik.
da znaju žargon, rečnik.
14:35
If you went to the highest level
of the U.S. government now
of the U.S. government now
267
863047
2799
Kada biste danas krenuli
do najviših instanci vlade SAD-a
do najviših instanci vlade SAD-a
14:37
and said, "Talk to me about cyber,
about neuroscience,
about neuroscience,
268
865870
2533
i rekli: "Razgovarajmo o sajberu,
o neuronauci,
o neuronauci,
14:40
about the things that are going
to change the world of tomorrow,"
to change the world of tomorrow,"
269
868427
3140
o stvarima koje će sutra da promene svet",
14:43
you'd get a blank stare.
270
871591
1151
bledo bi zurili u vas.
14:44
I know, because when I wrote this book,
271
872766
1921
Znam, jer kad sam pisao ovu knjigu,
14:46
I talked to 150 people,
many from the science and tech side,
many from the science and tech side,
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razgovarao sam sa 150 ljudi,
mnogima s naučne i tehničke strane
mnogima s naučne i tehničke strane
14:49
who felt like they were being
shunted off to the kids' table.
shunted off to the kids' table.
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koji su osećali
kao da su ih odgurnuli za dečji sto.
kao da su ih odgurnuli za dečji sto.
14:53
Meanwhile, on the tech side,
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U međuvremenu, na tehnološkoj strani,
14:55
we have lots of wonderful people
creating wonderful things,
creating wonderful things,
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imamo mnogo divnih ljudi
koji stvaraju divne stvari,
koji stvaraju divne stvari,
14:59
but they started in garages
and they didn't need the government
and they didn't need the government
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ali počinjali su u garažama
i vlada im nije bila potrebna
i vlada im nije bila potrebna
15:02
and they don't want the government.
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i oni ne žele vladino uplitanje.
15:04
Many of them have a political view
that's somewhere between
that's somewhere between
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Politički pogled mnogih od njih
se kreće negde između
se kreće negde između
15:06
libertarian and anarchic:
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liberala i anarhista:
15:08
leave me alone.
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ostavite me na miru.
15:11
But the world's coming apart.
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Ali svet se raspada.
15:13
All of a sudden, there are going to be
massive regulatory changes
massive regulatory changes
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Iznenada će da dođe
do masovnih promena u regulativama
do masovnih promena u regulativama
15:17
and massive issues
associated with conflict
associated with conflict
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i do masovnih pitanja
koja se tiču konflikata
koja se tiču konflikata
15:20
and massive issues associated
with security and privacy.
with security and privacy.
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i masovnih pitanja
koja se tiču bezbednosti i privatnosti.
koja se tiču bezbednosti i privatnosti.
15:24
And we haven't even gotten
to the next set of issues,
to the next set of issues,
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A čak smo stigli do narednog niza pitanja,
a to su filozofska pitanja.
15:26
which are philosophical issues.
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1974
15:29
If you can't vote,
if you can't have a job,
if you can't have a job,
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Ako ne možete da glasate,
ako ne možete da imate posao,
ako ne možete da imate posao,
ako nemate pristup bankarstvu,
ako nemate zdravstvenu zaštitu,
ako nemate zdravstvenu zaštitu,
15:32
if you can't bank,
if you can't get health care,
if you can't get health care,
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15:34
if you can't be educated
without Internet access,
without Internet access,
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ako ne možete da se obrazujete
bez pristupa internetu,
bez pristupa internetu,
15:37
is Internet access a fundamental right
that should be written into constitutions?
that should be written into constitutions?
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da li je pristup internetu osnovno pravo
koje bi trebalo da bude određeno ustavom?
koje bi trebalo da bude određeno ustavom?
15:42
If Internet access is a fundamental right,
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Ako je pristup internetu osnovno pravo,
15:45
is electricity access for the 1.2 billion
who don't have access to electricity
who don't have access to electricity
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da li je pristup električnoj mreži
za 1,2 milijarde koji nemaju taj pristup
za 1,2 milijarde koji nemaju taj pristup
15:49
a fundamental right?
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osnovno pravo?
15:51
These are fundamental issues.
Where are the philosophers?
Where are the philosophers?
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Ovo su osnovna ljudska prava.
Gde su filozofi?
Gde su filozofi?
15:54
Where's the dialogue?
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Gde je dijalog?
15:57
And that brings me
to the reason that I'm here.
to the reason that I'm here.
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A to me dovodi do razloga zašto sam ovde.
16:00
I live in Washington. Pity me.
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Živim u Vašingtonu. Sažaljevajte me.
16:03
(Laughter)
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1770
(Smeh)
16:04
The dialogue isn't happening there.
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Tamo nema dijaloga.
16:07
These big issues
that will change the world,
that will change the world,
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Ova velika pitanja
koja će da promene svet,
koja će da promene svet,
16:10
change national security,
change economics,
change economics,
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promeniće državnu bezbednost,
promeniće ekonomiju,
promeniće ekonomiju,
16:13
create hope, create threats,
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pružaju nadu, predstavljaju pretnju,
16:15
can only be resolved
when you bring together
when you bring together
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jedino mogu da budu rešena kada okupite
16:18
groups of people who understand
science and technology
science and technology
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grupe ljudi koje se razumeju
u nauku i tehnologiju
u nauku i tehnologiju
16:22
back together with government.
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zajedno sa vladom.
16:23
Both sides need each other.
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2180
Obe strane trebaju jedno drugo.
16:26
And until we recreate that connection,
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A dok ponovo ne stvorimo tu vezu,
16:31
until we do what helped America grow
and helped other countries grow,
and helped other countries grow,
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5431
dok ne učinimo ono što je potpomoglo
rast Amerike i drugih zemalja,
rast Amerike i drugih zemalja,
16:36
then we are going to grow
ever more vulnerable.
ever more vulnerable.
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do tad ćemo postajati čak i ranjiviji.
16:40
The risks associated with 9/11
will not be measured
will not be measured
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Rizici koji su u vezi sa 11. septembrom
neće se meriti
neće se meriti
16:44
in terms of lives lost by terror attacks
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u broju života izgubljenih
u terorističkim napadima
u terorističkim napadima
16:47
or buildings destroyed
or trillions of dollars spent.
or trillions of dollars spent.
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4085
ili u uništenim zgradama
ili u trilionima potrošenih dolara.
ili u trilionima potrošenih dolara.
16:52
They'll be measured in terms of the costs
of our distraction from critical issues
of our distraction from critical issues
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4903
Meriće se u ceni
naše odvraćenosti od kritičnih pitanja
naše odvraćenosti od kritičnih pitanja
16:56
and our inability to get together
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i u našoj nemogućnosti da okupimo
17:00
scientists, technologists,
government leaders,
government leaders,
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naučnike, tehničare, vođe iz vlade
17:04
at a moment of transformation
akin to the beginning of the Renaissance,
akin to the beginning of the Renaissance,
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5135
u momentu transformacije,
nalik početku renesanse,
nalik početku renesanse,
17:10
akin to the beginning
of the major transformational eras
of the major transformational eras
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3718
nalik početku velikih era promena
17:13
that have happened on Earth,
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koje su se desile na Zemlji
17:16
and start coming up with,
if not the right answers,
if not the right answers,
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i ako ne počnemo da dolazimo,
ako ne do pravih odgovora,
ako ne do pravih odgovora,
17:20
then at least the right questions.
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2353
onda barem do pravih pitanja.
17:23
We are not there yet,
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2043
Nismo još stigli dotle,
17:25
but discussions like this
and groups like you
and groups like you
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ali ovakve rasprave i grupe poput vas
17:28
are the places where those questions
can be formulated and posed.
can be formulated and posed.
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3786
su mesta mesta gde ta pitanja
mogu da se formulišu i postave.
mogu da se formulišu i postave.
17:32
And that's why I believe
that groups like TED,
that groups like TED,
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4554
I zato verujem da su grupe, poput TED-a,
17:37
discussions like this around the planet,
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rasprave poput ove, širom planete
17:39
are the place where the future
of foreign policy, of economic policy,
of foreign policy, of economic policy,
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4710
da su mesta gde će se budućnost
spoljne politike, ekonomske politike,
spoljne politike, ekonomske politike,
17:44
of social policy, of philosophy,
will ultimately take place.
will ultimately take place.
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5487
društvene politike, filozofije
konačno desiti.
konačno desiti.
17:50
And that's why it's been
a pleasure speaking to you.
a pleasure speaking to you.
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1058394
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I zato je bilo zadovoljstvo
govoriti pred vama.
govoriti pred vama.
17:52
Thank you very, very much.
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Mnogo, mnogo vam hvala.
17:54
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
David Rothkopf - Foreign policy strategistWith books and strategies, David Rothkopf helps people navigate the perils and opportunities of our contemporary geopolitical landscape.
Why you should listen
David Rothkopf draws on decades of foreign policy experience to clarify the events shaking today’s world -- and develops strategies for organizations to weather them and those looming ahead. Rothkopf is CEO of The Rothkopf Group, a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and former CEO and Editor of the FP Group (which publishes Foreign Policy Magazine and Foreign Policy.com).
Rothkopf's books (including most recently National Insecurity, which focuses on the treacherous post-9/11 national security climate) argue that the nature of power and those who wield it are fundamentally transforming. He is the author of the TED Book, The Great Questions of Tomorrow.
David Rothkopf | Speaker | TED.com