TED2015
David Rothkopf: How fear drives American politics
David Rothkopf: Kako strah vodi američu politiku
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Izgleda li kao da Washington nema novih ideja? Umjesto da razmišljaju o izgradnji budućnosti, nekada izgleda kao da se američki politički establišment rado vraća strahu i voljnom neznanju. Novinar David Rothkopf izlaže par glavnih problema koje američko vodstvo ne uspijeva riješiti- od računalnog kriminala, do nove tehnologije koja mijenja svijet, do stvarnosti modernog totalnog rata-
i poziva na novu viziju koja strah ostavlja po strani.
David Rothkopf - Foreign policy strategist
With books and strategies, David Rothkopf helps people navigate the perils and opportunities of our contemporary geopolitical landscape. Full bio
With books and strategies, David Rothkopf helps people navigate the perils and opportunities of our contemporary geopolitical landscape. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
What I'd like to do
is talk to you a little bit about fear
is talk to you a little bit about fear
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Ono što želim ovdje je malo popričati
s vama o strahu,
s vama o strahu,
00:16
and the cost of fear
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i cijeni straha,
00:18
and the age of fear
from which we are now emerging.
from which we are now emerging.
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i razdoblju straha iz kojeg sada
isplovljavamo.
isplovljavamo.
00:22
I would like you to feel comfortable
with my doing that
with my doing that
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Želim da se osjećate ugodno što
to činim,
to činim,
00:26
by letting you know that I know something
about fear and anxiety.
about fear and anxiety.
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kad vam dam do znanja da znam ponešto
o strahu i tjeskobi.
o strahu i tjeskobi.
00:31
I'm a Jewish guy from New Jersey.
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Židov sam iz New Jerseyja.
00:33
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
00:35
I could worry before I could walk.
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Brinuo sam prije nego što sam
prohodao.
prohodao.
00:37
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
00:39
Please, applaud that.
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Molim vas, zaplješčite tome.
00:41
(Applause)
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(pljesak)
00:44
Thank you.
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Hvala.
00:46
But I also grew up in a time
where there was something to fear.
where there was something to fear.
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Ali sam također odrastao u razdoblju
kad je strah bio opravdan.
kad je strah bio opravdan.
00:52
We were brought out in the hall
when I was a little kid
when I was a little kid
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Doveli su nas hodnik kad sam bio
malo dijete
malo dijete
00:56
and taught how to put
our coats over our heads
our coats over our heads
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i naučili nas kako da stavimo kaput
preko glave
preko glave
00:59
to protect us from global
thermonuclear war.
thermonuclear war.
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da se zaštitimo od svjetskog
termonuklearnog rata.
termonuklearnog rata.
01:03
Now even my seven-year-old brain
knew that wasn't going to work.
knew that wasn't going to work.
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Čak je i moj sedmogodišnji mozak
znao da to neće funkcionirati.
znao da to neće funkcionirati.
01:09
But I also knew
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Ali sam također znao
01:10
that global thermonuclear war
was something to be concerned with.
was something to be concerned with.
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da je svjetski termonuklearni rat
nešto oko čega trebamo biti zabrinuti.
nešto oko čega trebamo biti zabrinuti.
01:15
And yet, despite the fact
that we lived for 50 years
that we lived for 50 years
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I iako smo živjeli 50
godina
godina
01:19
with the threat of such a war,
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s prijetnjom takvog rata,
01:21
the response of our government
and of our society
and of our society
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odgovor naše vlade i našeg društva
01:25
was to do wonderful things.
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je bio raditi divne stvari.
01:28
We created the space program
in response to that.
in response to that.
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Kreirali smo svemirski program kao
odgovor na to.
odgovor na to.
01:31
We built our highway system
in response to that.
in response to that.
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Izgradili smo sustav autocesta kao
odgovor na to.
odgovor na to.
01:34
We created the Internet
in response to that.
in response to that.
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Stvorili smo internet kao odgovor
na to.
na to.
01:37
So sometimes fear can produce
a constructive response.
a constructive response.
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Tako da strah nekada može proizvesti
konstruktivni odgovor.
konstruktivni odgovor.
01:42
But sometimes it can produce
an un-constructive response.
an un-constructive response.
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Ali nekada može priozvesti
nekonstruktivni odgovor.
nekonstruktivni odgovor.
01:47
On September 11, 2001,
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11. rujna 2001.,
01:49
19 guys took over four airplanes
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19 mladića je otelo četiri zrakoplova
01:54
and flew them into a couple of buildings.
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i zabilo se njima u par zgrada.
01:57
They exacted a horrible toll.
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Iznudili su užasan danak.
02:00
It is not for us to minimize
what that toll was.
what that toll was.
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Nije na nama da umanjimo
što je bio danak.
što je bio danak.
02:04
But the response that we had
was clearly disproportionate --
was clearly disproportionate --
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Ali odgovor koji smo imali je bio
očito neproporcionalan --
očito neproporcionalan --
02:11
disproportionate to the point
of verging on the unhinged.
of verging on the unhinged.
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neproporcionalan do točke koja
graniči sa poremećenim.
graniči sa poremećenim.
02:16
We rearranged the national security
apparatus of the United States
apparatus of the United States
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Restrukturirali smo aparat nacionalne
sigurnosti SAD-a
sigurnosti SAD-a
02:20
and of many governments
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i mnogih vlada
02:22
to address a threat that,
at the time that those attacks took place,
at the time that those attacks took place,
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da bismo odgovorili na prijetnju, koja
je u vrijeme kad su se napadi dogodili
je u vrijeme kad su se napadi dogodili
02:27
was quite limited.
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bila dosta ograničena.
02:28
In fact, according to our
intelligence services,
intelligence services,
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Zapravo, prema izvještaju
naših obavještajnih službi,
naših obavještajnih službi,
02:32
on September 11, 2001,
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11. rujna 2001.
02:35
there were 100 members of core Al-Qaeda.
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postojalo je 100 članova jezgre
Al-Qaeda-e.
Al-Qaeda-e.
02:39
There were just a few thousand terrorists.
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Bilo je samo par tisuća terorista.
02:42
They posed an existential threat
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Oni nikome nisu predstavljali
02:45
to no one.
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egzistencijalnu prijetnju.
02:47
But we rearranged our entire
national security apparatus
national security apparatus
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Ali mi smo reorganizirali naš cijeli
aparat nacionalne sigurnosti
aparat nacionalne sigurnosti
02:52
in the most sweeping way
since the end of the Second World War.
since the end of the Second World War.
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na najobuhvatniji način od kraja
Drugog svjetskog rata.
Drugog svjetskog rata.
02:56
We launched two wars.
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Pokrenuli smo dva rata.
02:58
We spent trillions of dollars.
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Potrošili smo trilijune dolara.
03:00
We suspended our values.
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Zanemarili smo svoje vrijednosti.
03:02
We violated international law.
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Prekršili smo međunarodno pravo.
03:04
We embraced torture.
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Prihvatili smo mučenje.
03:06
We embraced the idea
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Prihvatili smo ideju,
03:07
that if these 19 guys could do this,
anybody could do it.
anybody could do it.
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da ako je tih 19 mladića to moglo,
svatko to može.
svatko to može.
03:11
And therefore,
for the first time in history,
for the first time in history,
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I zato, prvi put u povijesti
03:14
we were seeing everybody as a threat.
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smo svakoga vidjeli kao prijetnju.
03:17
And what was the result of that?
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I koji je bio rezultat toga?
03:19
Surveillance programs that listened in
on the emails and phone calls
on the emails and phone calls
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Programi praćenja e-mailova,
prisluškivanje telefonskih poziva
prisluškivanje telefonskih poziva
03:23
of entire countries --
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cijelih država --
03:25
hundreds of millions of people --
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stotine miljuna ljudi --
03:27
setting aside whether
those countries were our allies,
those countries were our allies,
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stavljajući na stranu jesu li nam te
zemlje saveznici,
zemlje saveznici,
03:30
setting aside what our interests were.
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stavljajući na stranu koji su naši interesi.
03:34
I would argue that 15 years later,
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Usudio bih se reći da 15 godina kasnije,
03:38
since today there are more terrorists,
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jer danas ima više terorista,
03:40
more terrorist attacks,
more terrorist casualties --
more terrorist casualties --
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više terorističkih napada, više
žrtava terorizma --
žrtava terorizma --
03:44
this by the count
of the U.S. State Department --
of the U.S. State Department --
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ovo su podaci američkog Ministarstva
vanjskih poslova --
vanjskih poslova --
03:47
since today the region
from which those attacks emanate
from which those attacks emanate
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s obzirom da je danas regija iz koje
ti napadi proizlaze
ti napadi proizlaze
03:50
is more unstable
than at any time in its history,
than at any time in its history,
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nestabilnija nego ikad prije,
03:54
since the Flood, perhaps,
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od Velikog potopa, možda,
03:57
we have not succeeded in our response.
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nismo uspjeli u našem odgovoru.
04:02
Now you have to ask,
where did we go wrong?
where did we go wrong?
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Sigurno se pitate, gdje smo
pogriješili?
pogriješili?
04:04
What did we do?
What was the mistake that was made?
What was the mistake that was made?
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Što smo napravili?
Koju pogrešku smo počinili?
Koju pogrešku smo počinili?
04:06
And you might say, well look,
Washington is a dysfunctional place.
Washington is a dysfunctional place.
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I možete reći, čujte,
Washington je disfunkcionalno mjesto.
Washington je disfunkcionalno mjesto.
04:10
There are political food fights.
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Tamo se odvijaju političke borbe.
04:12
We've turned our discourse
into a cage match.
into a cage match.
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Pretvorili smo naš govor
u borbe u kavezu.
u borbe u kavezu.
04:16
And that's true.
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I to je istina.
04:18
But there are bigger problems,
believe it or not, than that dysfunction,
believe it or not, than that dysfunction,
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Ali postoje veći problemi, vjerovali
ili ne, od te disfunkcionalnosti,
ili ne, od te disfunkcionalnosti,
04:21
even though I would argue
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iako bih rekao
04:23
that dysfunction that makes it impossible
to get anything done
to get anything done
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da je disfunkcionalnost koja
čini nemogućim išta učiniti
čini nemogućim išta učiniti
04:28
in the richest and most powerful
country in the world
country in the world
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u najbogatijoj i najmoćnijoj zemlji
svijeta
svijeta
04:31
is far more dangerous than anything
that a group like ISIS could do,
that a group like ISIS could do,
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puno opasnija od bilo čega
što grupe poput ISIS-a mogu,
što grupe poput ISIS-a mogu,
04:37
because it stops us in our tracks
and it keeps us from progress.
and it keeps us from progress.
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zato što nas zaustavlja
i spriječava u napretku.
i spriječava u napretku.
04:42
But there are other problems.
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Ali ima i drugih problema.
04:44
And the other problems
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I drugi problemi
04:45
came from the fact that in Washington
and in many capitals right now,
and in many capitals right now,
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su proizašli iz činjenice da smo u
Washingtonu i mnogim drugim glavnim gradovima
Washingtonu i mnogim drugim glavnim gradovima
04:48
we're in a creativity crisis.
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u krizi kreativnosti.
04:51
In Washington, in think tanks,
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U Washingtonu, u think tankovima,
04:53
where people are supposed to be
thinking of new ideas,
thinking of new ideas,
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gdje bi ljudi trebali razmišljati
o novim idejama,
o novim idejama,
04:56
you don't get bold new ideas,
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ne dobivate hrabre nove ideje,
04:59
because if you offer up a bold new idea,
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jer ako ponudite hrabru novu ideju,
05:01
not only are you attacked on Twitter,
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ne samo da vas napadnu na Twitteru,
05:03
but you will not get confirmed
in a government job.
in a government job.
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nego vas neće ni potvrditi
u vladinom poslu.
u vladinom poslu.
05:07
Because we are reactive to the heightened
venom of the political debate,
venom of the political debate,
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Zato što smo reaktivni na povišen
otrov političke debate,
otrov političke debate,
05:12
you get governments that have
an us-versus-them mentality,
an us-versus-them mentality,
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dobivamo vlade koje imaju mentalitet
mi-protiv-njih,
mi-protiv-njih,
05:15
tiny groups of people making decisions.
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mala grupa ljudi koja donosi odluke.
05:17
When you sit in a room with a small group
of people making decisions,
of people making decisions,
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Kada sjednete u sobu s malom grupom
ljudi koji donose odluke,
ljudi koji donose odluke,
05:21
what do you get?
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što dobijete?
05:22
You get groupthink.
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Dobijete grupno razmišljanje.
05:24
Everybody has the same worldview,
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Svi imaju isti pogled na svijet
05:25
and any view from outside of the group
is seen as a threat.
is seen as a threat.
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i svaki pogled izvan grupe je
protumačen kao prijetnja.
protumačen kao prijetnja.
05:29
That's a danger.
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To je opasnost.
05:31
You also have processes
that become reactive to news cycles.
that become reactive to news cycles.
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Također imate procese koji postaju
reaktivni na cikluse novosti.
reaktivni na cikluse novosti.
05:35
And so the parts of the U.S. government
that do foresight, that look forward,
that do foresight, that look forward,
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I tako dijelovi američke vlade koji rade
predviđanja, koji gledaju naprijed,
predviđanja, koji gledaju naprijed,
05:39
that do strategy --
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koji razvijaju strategiju --
05:41
the parts in other governments
that do this -- can't do it,
that do this -- can't do it,
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dijelovi drugih vlada koji to čine --
ne mogu to činiti,
ne mogu to činiti,
05:43
because they're reacting
to the news cycle.
to the news cycle.
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jer reagiraju na ciklus
novosti.
novosti.
05:46
And so we're not looking ahead.
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I tako ne gledamo naprijed.
05:48
On 9/11, we had a crisis
because we were looking the wrong way.
because we were looking the wrong way.
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11.9. smo imali krizu, jer smo
gledali u krivom smjeru.
gledali u krivom smjeru.
05:52
Today we have a crisis because,
because of 9/11,
because of 9/11,
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Danas imamo krizu zbog
11.9.,
11.9.,
05:55
we are still looking
in the wrong direction,
in the wrong direction,
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još uvijek gledamo u krivom
smjeru
smjeru
05:58
and we know because we see
transformational trends on the horizon
transformational trends on the horizon
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i znamo, jer vidimo transformacijske
trendove na horizontu
trendove na horizontu
06:04
that are far more important
than what we saw on 9/11;
than what we saw on 9/11;
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koji su daleko važniji
od onog što smo vidjeli 11.9.;
od onog što smo vidjeli 11.9.;
06:09
far more important than the threat
posed by these terrorists;
posed by these terrorists;
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daleko važniji od prijetnje
koju predstavljaju teroristi;
koju predstavljaju teroristi;
06:13
far more important even
than the instability that we've got
than the instability that we've got
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daleko važniji čak i od nestabilnosti
koju imamo
koju imamo
06:16
in some areas of the world
that are racked by instability today.
that are racked by instability today.
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u nekim dijelovima svijeta koji su danas
mučeni nestabilnošću.
mučeni nestabilnošću.
06:21
In fact, the things that we are seeing
in those parts of the world
in those parts of the world
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Zapravo, stvari koje vidimo u tim
dijelovima svijeta
dijelovima svijeta
06:25
may be symptoms.
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bi mogle biti simptomi.
06:28
They may be a reaction to bigger trends.
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Mogle bi biti reakcija na veće trendove.
06:32
And if we are treating the symptom
and ignoring the bigger trend,
and ignoring the bigger trend,
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I ako tretiramo simptome, a ignoriramo
veći trend,
veći trend,
06:37
then we've got far bigger
problems to deal with.
problems to deal with.
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onda imamo mnogo veće probleme
s kojima se trebamo baviti.
s kojima se trebamo baviti.
06:41
And so what are those trends?
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Što su, dakle,ti trendovi?
06:43
Well, to a group like you,
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Pa, grupi poput vas
06:45
the trends are apparent.
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trendovi su očiti.
06:48
We are living at a moment
in which the very fabric of human society
in which the very fabric of human society
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Živimo u trenutku u kojem se
sama osnova ljudskog društva
sama osnova ljudskog društva
06:53
is being rewoven.
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ponovo tkuje.
06:57
If you saw the cover of The Economist
a couple of days ago --
a couple of days ago --
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Ako ste vidjeli naslovnicu The Economista
prije par dana --
prije par dana --
07:00
it said that 80 percent
of the people on the planet,
of the people on the planet,
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pisalo je da će 80 posto ljudi na
planetu
planetu
07:03
by the year 2020, would have a smartphone.
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do 2020. godine imati pametni telefon.
07:07
They would have a small computer
connected to the Internet in their pocket.
connected to the Internet in their pocket.
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Imat će malo računalo povezano na internet
u svom džepu.
u svom džepu.
07:11
In most of Africa, the cell phone
penetration rate is 80 percent.
penetration rate is 80 percent.
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U većini Afrike, porast broja mobitela
je 80 posto.
je 80 posto.
07:17
We passed the point last October
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Shvatili smo to prošlog listopada
07:20
when there were more
mobile cellular devices, SIM cards,
mobile cellular devices, SIM cards,
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kada je bilo više mobilnih uređaja,
SIM kartica,
SIM kartica,
07:24
out in the world than there were people.
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na svijetu, nego što je bilo ljudi.
07:27
We are within years
of a profound moment in our history,
of a profound moment in our history,
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Živimo u godinama iznimno važnog
trenutka u našoj povijesti,
trenutka u našoj povijesti,
07:33
when effectively every single
human being on the planet
human being on the planet
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kada će svako ljudsko biće na planetu
07:38
is going to be part of a man-made
system for the first time,
system for the first time,
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biti dio sustava koji je stvorio čovjek
po prvi put,
po prvi put,
07:43
able to touch anyone else --
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u mogućnosti dodirnuti bilo koga --
07:45
touch them for good, touch them for ill.
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2362
dodirnuti ih u dobro, dodirnuti
ih u zlo.
ih u zlo.
07:47
And the changes associated with that
are changing the very nature
are changing the very nature
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I promjene povezane s tim
mijenjaju samu prirodu
mijenjaju samu prirodu
07:53
of every aspect of governance
and life on the planet
and life on the planet
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3601
svakog aspekta vladanja i života
na planetu,
na planetu,
07:57
in ways that our leaders
ought to be thinking about,
ought to be thinking about,
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465474
3446
na način o kojem bi naši vođe
trebali razmišljati
trebali razmišljati
08:00
when they're thinking about
these immediate threats.
these immediate threats.
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kada razmišljaju o tim neposrednim
prijetnjama.
prijetnjama.
08:03
On the security side,
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1766
Sa sigurnosne strane,
08:05
we've come out of a Cold War in which
it was too costly to fight a nuclear war,
it was too costly to fight a nuclear war,
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5504
izašli smo iz Hladnog rata u kojem
je bilo preskupo voditi nuklearni rat,
je bilo preskupo voditi nuklearni rat,
08:11
and so we didn't,
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pa ga onda nismo vodili,
08:12
to a period that I call
Cool War, cyber war,
Cool War, cyber war,
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3817
i ušli u razdoblje koje zovem Cool rat,
kibernetički rat,
kibernetički rat,
08:16
where the costs of conflict are actually
so low, that we may never stop.
so low, that we may never stop.
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u kojem su cijene ratovanja zapravo tako
male, da možda nikad ne prestanemo.
male, da možda nikad ne prestanemo.
08:22
We may enter a period of constant warfare,
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Mogli bismo ući u razdoblje konstantnog
ratovanja,
ratovanja,
08:24
and we know this because
we've been in it for several years.
we've been in it for several years.
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a to znamo, jer smo u tome već nekoliko
godina.
godina.
08:29
And yet, we don't have the basic doctrines
to guide us in this regard.
to guide us in this regard.
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A ipak, nemamo osnovne doktrine
da nas vode kroz to.
da nas vode kroz to.
08:35
We don't have the basic ideas formulated.
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2091
Nemamo formulirane osnovne ideje.
08:37
If someone attacks us with a cyber attack,
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Ako nas netko napadne kibernetički,
08:39
do have the ability to respond
with a kinetic attack?
with a kinetic attack?
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imamo li mogućnost odgovoriti
kinetičkim napadom?
kinetičkim napadom?
08:43
We don't know.
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Ne znamo.
08:45
If somebody launches a cyber attack,
how do we deter them?
how do we deter them?
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513573
4085
Ako netko započne kibernetički napad,
kako ga zaustavimo?
kako ga zaustavimo?
08:49
When China launched
a series of cyber attacks,
a series of cyber attacks,
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517682
2187
Kada je Kina započela seriju kibernetičkih
napada,
napada,
08:51
what did the U.S. government do?
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519893
1527
što je napravila američka vlada?
08:53
It said, we're going to indict
a few of these Chinese guys,
a few of these Chinese guys,
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3985
Rekli su, optužit ćemo par Kineza,
08:57
who are never coming to America.
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1742
koji više nikada neće doći u Ameriku.
08:59
They're never going to be anywhere near
a law enforcement officer
a law enforcement officer
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3949
Oni nikada neće biti blizu nekog
službenika koji provodi zakon,
službenika koji provodi zakon,
09:03
who's going to take them into custody.
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531870
2005
koji će ih uhititi.
09:06
It's a gesture -- it's not a deterrent.
161
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2890
To je gesta -- ne sredstvo zastrašivanja.
09:09
Special forces operators
out there in the field today
out there in the field today
162
537678
3798
Pripadnici specijalnih snaga koji su danas
na terenu
na terenu
09:13
discover that small groups
of insurgents with cell phones
of insurgents with cell phones
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541500
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otkrivaju da male grupe pobunjenika
s mobitelima
s mobitelima
09:18
have access to satellite imagery
that once only superpowers had.
that once only superpowers had.
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5271
imaju pristup satelitskim slikama
koje su nekad imale samo supersile.
koje su nekad imale samo supersile.
09:23
In fact, if you've got a cell phone,
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Zapravo, ako imate mobitel,
09:25
you've got access to power
that a superpower didn't have,
that a superpower didn't have,
166
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3316
imate pristup moći kakvu
supersila nije imala,
supersila nije imala,
09:29
and would have highly
classified 10 years ago.
classified 10 years ago.
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2155
i koja bi bila strogo zaštićena
prije 10 godina.
prije 10 godina.
09:31
In my cell phone,
I have an app that tells me
I have an app that tells me
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U svom mobitelu imam aplikaciju
koja mi pokazuje
koja mi pokazuje
09:34
where every plane in the world is,
and its altitude, and its speed,
and its altitude, and its speed,
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4540
gdje je svaki avion na svijetu, njegovu
visinu, njegovu brzinu,
visinu, njegovu brzinu,
09:38
and what kind of aircraft it is,
170
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1822
vrstu letjelice,
09:40
and where it's going
and where it's landing.
and where it's landing.
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2916
kamo ide, gdje će sletjeti.
09:44
They have apps that allow them to know
172
572429
4549
Imaju aplikacije koje im omogućavaju
09:49
what their adversary is about to do.
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2219
da saznaju na što se sprema protivnik.
09:51
They're using these tools in new ways.
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579245
2376
Koriste te alate na nov način.
09:53
When a cafe in Sydney
was taken over by a terrorist,
was taken over by a terrorist,
175
581645
4114
Kada je kafić u Sydneyju zauzeo
terorist,
terorist,
09:57
he went in with a rifle...
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2293
ušao je s puškom...
10:00
and an iPad.
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1243
i iPadom.
10:01
And the weapon was the iPad.
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2561
I oružje je bio iPad.
10:04
Because he captured people,
he terrorized them,
he terrorized them,
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592999
3299
Zato što je zarobio ljude,
terorizirao ih,
terorizirao ih,
10:08
he pointed the iPad at them,
180
596322
2705
u njih uperio iPad,
10:11
and then he took the video
and he put it on the Internet,
and he put it on the Internet,
181
599051
2672
i onda ih snimio i stavio to
na internet,
na internet,
10:13
and he took over the world's media.
182
601747
2023
tako osvojivši svjetske medije.
10:17
But it doesn't just affect
the security side.
the security side.
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3468
Ali to ne utječe samo na sigurnosnu
stranu.
stranu.
10:22
The relations between great powers --
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610132
1829
Odnosi između velikih sila --
10:23
we thought we were past the bipolar era.
185
611985
2365
mislili smo da smo prerasli bipolarno
razdoblje.
razdoblje.
10:27
We thought we were in a unipolar world,
186
615259
1874
Mislili smo da smo u unipolarnom
svijetu
svijetu
10:29
where all the big issues were resolved.
187
617157
1894
gdje se svi veliki problemi riješavaju.
10:31
Remember? It was the end of history.
188
619075
1717
Sjećate se? Bio je to kraj
povijesti.
povijesti.
10:34
But we're not.
189
622129
1296
Ali nije tako.
10:35
We're now seeing that our
basic assumptions about the Internet --
basic assumptions about the Internet --
190
623449
4388
Sada vidimo da naše osnovne pretpostavke
o internetu --
o internetu --
10:39
that it was going to connect us,
weave society together --
weave society together --
191
627861
4061
koji će nas povezati,
satkati zajedničko društvo --
satkati zajedničko društvo --
10:43
are not necessarily true.
192
631946
1656
nisu nužno točne.
10:46
In countries like China,
you have the Great Firewall of China.
you have the Great Firewall of China.
193
634083
3196
U zemljama poput Kine postoji
Veliki kineski Firewall.
Veliki kineski Firewall.
10:49
You've got countries saying no,
if the Internet happens within our borders
if the Internet happens within our borders
194
637303
3520
Postoje zemlje koje kažu ne,
ako se internet odvija u našim granicama,
ako se internet odvija u našim granicama,
10:52
we control it within our borders.
195
640847
1575
kontroliramo ga u našim granicama.
10:54
We control the content.
We are going to control our security.
We are going to control our security.
196
642446
2860
Kontroliramo sadržaj.
Kontrolirat ćemo naše društvo.
Kontrolirat ćemo naše društvo.
10:57
We are going to manage that Internet.
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645330
1766
Vodit ćemo internet.
10:59
We are going to say what can be on it.
198
647120
1813
Reći ćemo što se može nalaziti na njemu.
11:00
We're going to set
a different set of rules.
a different set of rules.
199
648957
2051
Postavit ćemo drukčija pravila.
11:03
Now you might think,
well, that's just China.
well, that's just China.
200
651032
2097
Možda sad mislite, pa, to je Kina.
11:05
But it's not just China.
201
653153
1714
Ali nije samo Kina.
11:07
It's China, India, Russia.
202
655651
2729
To su Indija, Kina, Rusija.
11:10
It's Saudi Arabia,
it's Singapore, it's Brazil.
it's Singapore, it's Brazil.
203
658708
3100
To su Saudijska Arabija, Singapur,
Brazil.
Brazil.
11:13
After the NSA scandal, the Russians,
the Chinese, the Indians, the Brazilians,
the Chinese, the Indians, the Brazilians,
204
661832
4514
Nakon skandala NSA, Rusi, Kinezi,
Indijci, Brazilci
Indijci, Brazilci
11:18
they said, let's create
a new Internet backbone,
a new Internet backbone,
205
666370
3055
su rekli, idemo prozvesti novu
kralješnicu interneta,
kralješnicu interneta,
11:21
because we can't be dependent
on this other one.
on this other one.
206
669449
2482
jer ne možemo ovisiti o ovoj
drugoj.
drugoj.
11:23
And so all of a sudden, what do you have?
207
671955
1969
I što se odjednom dogodilo?
11:26
You have a new bipolar world
208
674400
2499
Imamo novi bipolarni svijet
11:28
in which cyber-internationalism,
209
676923
2191
u kojem je kiber-internacionalizam,
11:31
our belief,
210
679138
1151
naša vjerovanje,
11:32
is challenged by cyber-nationalism,
211
680313
2837
u sukobu s kiber-nacionalizmom,
11:35
another belief.
212
683174
1265
drugim vjerovanjem.
11:37
We are seeing these changes
everywhere we look.
everywhere we look.
213
685593
3171
Vidimo te promjene gdje god pogledamo.
11:41
We are seeing the advent of mobile money.
214
689629
1978
Vidimo dolazak mobilnog novca.
11:43
It's happening in the places
you wouldn't expect.
you wouldn't expect.
215
691631
2297
Događa se u zemljama u kojima
to ne biste očekivali.
to ne biste očekivali.
11:45
It's happening in Kenya and Tanzania,
216
693952
2377
Događa se u Keniji i Tanzaniji,
11:48
where millions of people who haven't
had access to financial services
had access to financial services
217
696353
3269
gdje milijuni ljudi koji nisu imali
pristup financijskim uslugama,
pristup financijskim uslugama,
11:51
now conduct all those
services on their phones.
services on their phones.
218
699646
2495
sada sve te usluge vrše preko
svojih telefona.
svojih telefona.
11:54
There are 2.5 million people
who don't have financial service access
who don't have financial service access
219
702702
4500
Postoji 2.5 milijuna ljudi koji nemaju
pristup financijskim uslugama,
pristup financijskim uslugama,
11:59
that are going to get it soon.
220
707226
2016
ali će ga ubrzo dobiti.
12:01
A billion of them are going
to have the ability to access it
to have the ability to access it
221
709740
2813
Njih milijarda će uskoro imati mogućnost
pristupiti im
pristupiti im
12:04
on their cell phone soon.
222
712577
1195
preko svojih mobitela.
12:05
It's not just going to give them
the ability to bank.
the ability to bank.
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713796
2853
To im neće dati samo mogućnost
bankarstva.
bankarstva.
12:08
It's going to change
what monetary policy is.
what monetary policy is.
224
716957
2877
To će promijeniti monetarnu
politiku.
politiku.
12:11
It's going to change what money is.
225
719858
2636
Promijenit će ono što novac jest.
12:15
Education is changing in the same way.
226
723262
2171
Obrazovanje se jednako tako mijenja.
12:18
Healthcare is changing in the same way.
227
726430
2461
Zdravstvo isto tako.
12:20
How government services are delivered
is changing in the same way.
is changing in the same way.
228
728915
3494
Način ispostave vladinih usluga također.
12:25
And yet, in Washington, we are debating
229
733607
4262
A ipak, u Washingtonu raspravljamo
12:29
whether to call the terrorist group
that has taken over Syria and Iraq
that has taken over Syria and Iraq
230
737893
5465
trebamo li zvati terorističku grupu koja
je zauzela Siriju i Irak
je zauzela Siriju i Irak
12:35
ISIS or ISIL or Islamic State.
231
743382
4160
ISIS ili ISIL ili Islamska država.
12:40
We are trying to determine
232
748540
3111
Pokušavamo odrediti
12:43
how much we want to give
in a negotiation with the Iranians
in a negotiation with the Iranians
233
751675
5289
koliko želimo dati u pregovorima
s Irancima
s Irancima
12:48
on a nuclear deal which deals
with the technologies of 50 years ago,
with the technologies of 50 years ago,
234
756988
4799
o nuklearnom sporazumu koji se bavi
tehnologijama od prije 50 godina,
tehnologijama od prije 50 godina,
12:53
when in fact, we know that the Iranians
right now are engaged in cyber war with us
right now are engaged in cyber war with us
235
761811
5358
iako zapravo znamo da su Iranci sada
uključeni u kibernetički rat s nama
uključeni u kibernetički rat s nama
12:59
and we're ignoring it, partially
because businesses are not willing
because businesses are not willing
236
767193
6034
i mi to ignoriramo, djelomice zato što
businessi nisu voljni
businessi nisu voljni
13:05
to talk about the attacks
that are being waged on them.
that are being waged on them.
237
773251
3118
pričati o napadima koji im se naplaćuju.
13:09
And that gets us to another breakdown
238
777399
2809
I to nas dovodi do još jednog rasula,
13:12
that's crucial,
239
780232
1224
koje je ključno,
13:13
and another breakdown that couldn't be
more important to a group like this,
more important to a group like this,
240
781480
3711
i još jednog rasula koji ne može biti
važniji ovakvoj grupi,
važniji ovakvoj grupi,
13:17
because the growth of America
and real American national security
and real American national security
241
785215
3652
jer rast Amerike i prava američka
nacionalna sigurnost
nacionalna sigurnost
13:20
and all of the things that drove progress
even during the Cold War,
even during the Cold War,
242
788891
4441
i sve stvari koje su vodile napredak
čak i u godinama Hladnog rata,
čak i u godinama Hladnog rata,
13:25
was a public-private partnership
between science, technology and government
between science, technology and government
243
793356
4751
je bilo javno-privatno partnerstvo
znanosti, tehnologije i vlade
znanosti, tehnologije i vlade
13:30
that began when Thomas Jefferson
sat alone in his laboratory
sat alone in his laboratory
244
798131
3508
koje je započelo kada je Thomas Jefferson
sam sjedio u laboratoriju
sam sjedio u laboratoriju
13:33
inventing new things.
245
801663
1843
izumljujući nove stvari.
13:36
But it was the canals
and railroads and telegraph;
and railroads and telegraph;
246
804528
3810
Ali to su bili kanali, željezničke
pruge, telegraf;
pruge, telegraf;
13:40
it was radar and the Internet.
247
808362
2316
to su bili radar i internet.
13:43
It was Tang, the breakfast drink --
248
811129
2284
To je bio Tang, jutarnje piće --
13:45
probably not the most important
of those developments.
of those developments.
249
813437
2877
vjerojatno ne i najvažnije od
ovih izuma.
ovih izuma.
13:48
But what you had was
a partnership and a dialogue,
a partnership and a dialogue,
250
816795
2879
Ali ono što je postojalo su bili
partnerstvo i dijalog,
partnerstvo i dijalog,
13:51
and the dialogue has broken down.
251
819698
2265
a dijalog se raspao.
13:53
It's broken down because in Washington,
252
821987
2379
Raspao se, jer se u Washingtonu
13:56
less government is considered more.
253
824390
1766
manje vlada smatra više.
13:58
It's broken down because there is,
believe it or not,
believe it or not,
254
826180
2479
Raspao se, jer, vjerovali ili ne,
14:00
in Washington, a war on science --
255
828683
1840
u Wahingtonu, rat protiv znanosti --
14:02
despite the fact that
in all of human history,
in all of human history,
256
830547
3039
unatoč činjenici da u cjelokupnoj
ljudskoj povijesti,
ljudskoj povijesti,
14:05
every time anyone has waged
a war on science,
a war on science,
257
833610
2960
svaki put kad je netko započeo
rat sa znanošću,
rat sa znanošću,
14:08
science has won.
258
836594
1601
znanost je pobijedila.
14:11
(Applause)
259
839463
4927
(pljesak)
14:16
But we have a government
that doesn't want to listen,
that doesn't want to listen,
260
844712
4196
Ali mi imao vladu koja ne želi
slušati,
slušati,
14:20
that doesn't have people
at the highest levels
at the highest levels
261
848932
2159
koja nema ljude na najvišim
pozicijama
pozicijama
14:23
that understand this.
262
851115
1154
koji to razumiju.
14:24
In the nuclear age,
263
852293
1151
U nuklearnom razdoblju,
14:25
when there were people
in senior national security jobs,
in senior national security jobs,
264
853468
3167
kada je bilo ljudi na višim
poslovima nacionalne sigurnosti,
poslovima nacionalne sigurnosti,
14:28
they were expected to speak throw-weight.
265
856659
3028
od njih se očekivalo da govore
"težinom udara".
"težinom udara".
14:32
They were expected to know
the lingo, the vocabulary.
the lingo, the vocabulary.
266
860005
3018
Očekivalo se da znaju sleng,
da znaju terminologiju.
da znaju terminologiju.
14:35
If you went to the highest level
of the U.S. government now
of the U.S. government now
267
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2799
Da sada odete na najviše pozicije
američke vlade
američke vlade
14:37
and said, "Talk to me about cyber,
about neuroscience,
about neuroscience,
268
865870
2533
i kažete: "Pričajte mi o kibernetici,
o neuroznanosti,
o neuroznanosti,
14:40
about the things that are going
to change the world of tomorrow,"
to change the world of tomorrow,"
269
868427
3140
o stvarima koje će promijeniti
svijet sutrašnjice" ,
svijet sutrašnjice" ,
14:43
you'd get a blank stare.
270
871591
1151
dočekao bi vas prazan pogled.
14:44
I know, because when I wrote this book,
271
872766
1921
Znam to, jer, kad sam napisao knjigu,
14:46
I talked to 150 people,
many from the science and tech side,
many from the science and tech side,
272
874711
3040
razgovorao sam sa 150 ljudi, od koji su
mnogi bili sa znanstvene i tehnološke strane,
mnogi bili sa znanstvene i tehnološke strane,
14:49
who felt like they were being
shunted off to the kids' table.
shunted off to the kids' table.
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koji su se osjećali kao da ih isključuju i
šalju za dječji stol.
šalju za dječji stol.
14:53
Meanwhile, on the tech side,
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Za to vrijeme, na tehnološkoj
strani,
strani,
14:55
we have lots of wonderful people
creating wonderful things,
creating wonderful things,
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postoje mnogi predivni ljudi koji
stvaraju predivne stvari,
stvaraju predivne stvari,
14:59
but they started in garages
and they didn't need the government
and they didn't need the government
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ali započeli su u garažama i nisu trebali
vladu
vladu
15:02
and they don't want the government.
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i nisu htjeli vladu.
15:04
Many of them have a political view
that's somewhere between
that's somewhere between
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Mnogi od njih imaju politički svjetonazor
negdje između
negdje između
15:06
libertarian and anarchic:
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libertarijanskog i anarhističkog:
15:08
leave me alone.
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pustite me na miru.
15:11
But the world's coming apart.
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1814
Ali svijet se raspada.
15:13
All of a sudden, there are going to be
massive regulatory changes
massive regulatory changes
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Odjednom će započeti masovne
regulatorne promjene
regulatorne promjene
15:17
and massive issues
associated with conflict
associated with conflict
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2918
i masovni problemi povezani sa
sukobom,
sukobom,
15:20
and massive issues associated
with security and privacy.
with security and privacy.
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4285
i masovni problemi povezani
sa sigurnošću i privatnošću.
sa sigurnošću i privatnošću.
15:24
And we haven't even gotten
to the next set of issues,
to the next set of issues,
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2495
I nismo čak došli do sljedeće skupine
problema,
problema,
a to su filozofski problemi.
15:26
which are philosophical issues.
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1974
15:29
If you can't vote,
if you can't have a job,
if you can't have a job,
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2822
Ako ne možete glasati,
ako ne možete imati posao,
ako ne možete imati posao,
15:32
if you can't bank,
if you can't get health care,
if you can't get health care,
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920447
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ako ne možete bankariti,
ako ne možete dobiti zdravstvenu skrb,
ako ne možete dobiti zdravstvenu skrb,
15:34
if you can't be educated
without Internet access,
without Internet access,
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2442
ako se ne možete obrazovati bez
pristupa internetu,
pristupa internetu,
15:37
is Internet access a fundamental right
that should be written into constitutions?
that should be written into constitutions?
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4911
je li pristup internetu osnovno pravo
koje bi trebalo upisati u ustav?
koje bi trebalo upisati u ustav?
15:42
If Internet access is a fundamental right,
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930364
3171
Ako je pravo pristupa internetu osnovno
pravo,
pravo,
15:45
is electricity access for the 1.2 billion
who don't have access to electricity
who don't have access to electricity
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933559
4158
je li pristup električnoj energiji koji
nema 1.2 milijarde ljudi
nema 1.2 milijarde ljudi
15:49
a fundamental right?
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1417
osnovno pravo?
15:51
These are fundamental issues.
Where are the philosophers?
Where are the philosophers?
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3029
Ovo su osnovni problemi.
Gdje su filozofi?
Gdje su filozofi?
15:54
Where's the dialogue?
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1660
Gdje je dijalog?
15:57
And that brings me
to the reason that I'm here.
to the reason that I'm here.
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2516
I to me dovodi do razloga
zašto sam ovdje.
zašto sam ovdje.
16:00
I live in Washington. Pity me.
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2518
Živim u Washingtonu. Sažalite se nada mnom
16:03
(Laughter)
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1770
(smijeh)
16:04
The dialogue isn't happening there.
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2267
Tamo ne dolazi do dijaloga.
16:07
These big issues
that will change the world,
that will change the world,
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2395
Ovi veliki problemi koji
će promijeniti svijet,
će promijeniti svijet,
16:10
change national security,
change economics,
change economics,
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2648
promijeniti nacionalnu sigurnost,
promijeniti ekonomiju,
promijeniti ekonomiju,
16:13
create hope, create threats,
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2883
stvoriti nadu, stvoriti prijetnje,
16:15
can only be resolved
when you bring together
when you bring together
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2714
se jedino mogu riješiti
kada opet okupite
kada opet okupite
16:18
groups of people who understand
science and technology
science and technology
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966668
3381
grupu ljudi koji razumiju
znanost i tehnologiju
znanost i tehnologiju
16:22
back together with government.
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970073
1673
s vladom.
16:23
Both sides need each other.
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2180
Obje strane trebaju jedni druge.
16:26
And until we recreate that connection,
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4752
I sve dok opet ne uspostavimo
tu vezu,
tu vezu,
16:31
until we do what helped America grow
and helped other countries grow,
and helped other countries grow,
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979262
5431
dok ne napravimo ono što je pomoglo
Americi i drugim zemljama da narastu,
Americi i drugim zemljama da narastu,
16:36
then we are going to grow
ever more vulnerable.
ever more vulnerable.
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3070
postajat ćemo sve ranjiviji.
16:40
The risks associated with 9/11
will not be measured
will not be measured
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988547
3811
Rizik povezan s 11. 9. neće biti
izmjeren
izmjeren
16:44
in terms of lives lost by terror attacks
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3006
izgubljenim životima,
16:47
or buildings destroyed
or trillions of dollars spent.
or trillions of dollars spent.
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4085
uništenim zgradama, potrošenim
trilijunima dolara.
trilijunima dolara.
16:52
They'll be measured in terms of the costs
of our distraction from critical issues
of our distraction from critical issues
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1000040
4903
Bit će izmjeren cijenom našeg
odvraćanja pažnje od kritičnih problema
odvraćanja pažnje od kritičnih problema
16:56
and our inability to get together
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1004967
3733
i našom nesposobnošću da okupimo
17:00
scientists, technologists,
government leaders,
government leaders,
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4196
znanstvenike, tehničare, političke
vođe
vođe
17:04
at a moment of transformation
akin to the beginning of the Renaissance,
akin to the beginning of the Renaissance,
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1012944
5135
u trenutku transformacije koja je
početak renesanse,
početak renesanse,
17:10
akin to the beginning
of the major transformational eras
of the major transformational eras
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3718
početak najvećeg razdoblja
tranformacije
tranformacije
17:13
that have happened on Earth,
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2489
koje se ikad dogodilo na Zemlji,
17:16
and start coming up with,
if not the right answers,
if not the right answers,
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4446
i da počnemo osmišljavati, ako
već ne točne odgovore,
već ne točne odgovore,
17:20
then at least the right questions.
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2353
onda barem prava pitanja.
17:23
We are not there yet,
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2043
Još to nismo dostigli,
17:25
but discussions like this
and groups like you
and groups like you
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ali ovakve rasprave i grupe poput vas
17:28
are the places where those questions
can be formulated and posed.
can be formulated and posed.
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1036360
3786
su mjesta gdje se ta pitanja mogu
formulirati i postaviti.
formulirati i postaviti.
17:32
And that's why I believe
that groups like TED,
that groups like TED,
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4554
I zato vjerujem da su grupe poput TED-a,
17:37
discussions like this around the planet,
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2593
ovakve rasprave diljem svijeta,
17:39
are the place where the future
of foreign policy, of economic policy,
of foreign policy, of economic policy,
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1047748
4710
mjesta na kojima će stvoriti budućnost
vanjskih poslova, ekonomske politike,
vanjskih poslova, ekonomske politike,
17:44
of social policy, of philosophy,
will ultimately take place.
will ultimately take place.
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5487
socijalne politike, filozofije.
17:50
And that's why it's been
a pleasure speaking to you.
a pleasure speaking to you.
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I zato mi je bio užitak pričati s vama.
17:52
Thank you very, very much.
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Puno, puno vam hvala.
17:54
(Applause)
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(pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
David Rothkopf - Foreign policy strategistWith books and strategies, David Rothkopf helps people navigate the perils and opportunities of our contemporary geopolitical landscape.
Why you should listen
David Rothkopf draws on decades of foreign policy experience to clarify the events shaking today’s world -- and develops strategies for organizations to weather them and those looming ahead. Rothkopf is CEO of The Rothkopf Group, a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and former CEO and Editor of the FP Group (which publishes Foreign Policy Magazine and Foreign Policy.com).
Rothkopf's books (including most recently National Insecurity, which focuses on the treacherous post-9/11 national security climate) argue that the nature of power and those who wield it are fundamentally transforming. He is the author of the TED Book, The Great Questions of Tomorrow.
David Rothkopf | Speaker | TED.com