TEDSummit
Jonathan Tepperman: The risky politics of progress
Džonatan Teperman (Jonathan Tepperman): Rizična politika napretka
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Globalne probleme poput terorizma, nejednakosti i političke disfunkcionalnosti nije lako rešiti, ali to ne znači da treba da prestanemo da pokušavamo. Zapravo, kako sugeriše novinar Džonatan Teperman, možda bismo čak hteli da razmišljamo na rizičniji način. Proputovao je svet kako bi pitao svetske vođe kako se oni bave teškim problemima i otkrio je iznenađujuće priče pune nade iz kojih je izvukao tri alatke za rešavanje problema.
Jonathan Tepperman - Global affairs thinker
Jonathan Tepperman writes on the world's most pervasive and seemingly intractable challenges. Full bio
Jonathan Tepperman writes on the world's most pervasive and seemingly intractable challenges. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
Konvencionalna mudrost o našem svetu danas
00:12
The conventional wisdom
about our world today
about our world today
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00:15
is that this is a time
of terrible decline.
of terrible decline.
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je da je ovo vreme užasnog propadanja.
00:19
And that's not surprising,
given the bad news all around us,
given the bad news all around us,
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To ne iznenađuje, s obzirom
na sve loše vesti oko nas,
na sve loše vesti oko nas,
00:23
from ISIS to inequality,
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od Islamske države do nejednakosti,
00:25
political dysfunction, climate change,
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političke disfunkcionalnosti,
klimatskih promena,
klimatskih promena,
00:28
Brexit, and on and on.
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Bregzita i tako dalje.
00:31
But here's the thing,
and this may sound a little weird.
and this may sound a little weird.
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Međutim, znate šta,
a ovo može zvučati pomalo čudno.
a ovo može zvučati pomalo čudno.
00:35
I actually don't buy
this gloomy narrative,
this gloomy narrative,
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Ja se zapravo ne slažem
sa ovom sumornom pričom,
sa ovom sumornom pričom,
00:38
and I don't think you should either.
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a mislim da ni vi ne bi trebalo.
00:40
Look, it's not that
I don't see the problems.
I don't see the problems.
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Vidite, nije da ne vidim probleme.
00:43
I read the same headlines that you do.
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Čitam iste naslove kao i vi.
00:46
What I dispute is the conclusion
that so many people draw from them,
that so many people draw from them,
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Ono što osporavam jeste zaključak
koji toliko ljudi izvlači iz njih,
koji toliko ljudi izvlači iz njih,
00:49
namely that we're all screwed
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naime, da smo svi gotovi
00:51
because the problems are unsolvable
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jer su problemi nerešivi
00:54
and our governments are useless.
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i naše vlade su beskorisne.
00:57
Now, why do I say this?
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Zašto to kažem?
00:58
It's not like I'm particularly
optimistic by nature.
optimistic by nature.
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Ne može se reći da sam naročito
optimističan po prirodi.
optimističan po prirodi.
01:02
But something about the media's
constant doom-mongering
constant doom-mongering
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Međutim, nešto vezano
za stalno medijsko raspirivanje propasti
za stalno medijsko raspirivanje propasti
01:06
with its fixation on problems
and not on answers
and not on answers
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sa svojom fiksiranošću na problemima,
a ne na odgovorima,
a ne na odgovorima,
01:09
has always really bugged me.
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oduvek mi je zaista smetalo.
01:11
So a few years ago I decided,
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Tako sam pre nekoliko godina odlučio:
01:14
well, I'm a journalist,
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„Pa, ja sam novinar.
01:16
I should see if I can do any better
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Treba da vidim umem li bolje
01:18
by going around the world
and actually asking folks
and actually asking folks
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tako što ću ići po svetu
i zapravo pitati ljude
i zapravo pitati ljude
01:21
if and how they've tackled
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da li su se i kako bavili
01:22
their big economic
and political challenges.
and political challenges.
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svojim velikim ekonomskim
i političkim izazovima.
i političkim izazovima.
01:26
And what I found astonished me.
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Ono što sam otkrio me je zapanjilo.
01:29
It turns out that there are remarkable
signs of progress out there,
signs of progress out there,
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Ispostavilo se da postoje
izuzetni znaci napretka,
izuzetni znaci napretka,
01:33
often in the most unexpected places,
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često na najneočekivanijim mestima,
01:36
and they've convinced me
that our great global challenges
that our great global challenges
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i ubedili su me
da naši veliki globalni izazovi
da naši veliki globalni izazovi
01:40
may not be so unsolvable after all.
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možda ipak nisu tako nerešivi.
01:43
Not only are there theoretical fixes;
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Ne samo da postoje teoretska rešenja,
01:45
those fixes have been tried.
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već su ona i isprobana.
01:47
They've worked.
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Uspela su
01:49
And they offer hope for the rest of us.
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i nude nadu za nas ostale.
Pokazaću vam šta pod tim mislim
tako što ću vam ispričati
tako što ću vam ispričati
01:52
I'm going to show you what I mean
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01:54
by telling you about
how three of the countries I visited --
how three of the countries I visited --
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o tome kako su tri zemlje
koje sam posetio -
koje sam posetio -
01:56
Canada, Indonesia and Mexico --
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Kanada, Indonezija i Meksiko -
01:58
overcame three supposedly
impossible problems.
impossible problems.
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prebrodile tri navodno nemoguća problema.
02:02
Their stories matter because they contain
tools the rest of us can use,
tools the rest of us can use,
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Njihove priče su značajne jer sadrže
sredstva koje ostatak nas može koristiti,
sredstva koje ostatak nas može koristiti,
02:06
and not just for those
particular problems,
particular problems,
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i to ne samo za te određene probleme,
02:09
but for many others, too.
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već i za mnogo drugih.
02:13
When most people think
about my homeland, Canada, today,
about my homeland, Canada, today,
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Kada većina ljudi danas pomisli
na moju domovinu, današnju Kanadu,
na moju domovinu, današnju Kanadu,
02:17
if they think about Canada at all,
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ako uopšte pomišljaju na Kanadu,
02:19
they think cold, they think boring,
they think polite.
they think polite.
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pomisle: hladno, dosadno, učtivo.
02:22
They think we say "sorry" too much
in our funny accents.
in our funny accents.
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Misle da previše govorimo „izvinite“
našim smešnim naglaskom.
našim smešnim naglaskom.
02:26
And that's all true.
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To je sve tačno.
02:28
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
02:29
Sorry.
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Izvinite.
02:30
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
02:32
But Canada's also important
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Međutim, Kanada je takođe važna
02:35
because of its triumph over a problem
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zbog svoje pobede nad problemom
02:37
currently tearing
many other countries apart:
many other countries apart:
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koji trenutno razara mnoge druge zemlje,
02:39
immigration.
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imigracijom.
02:41
Consider, Canada today is among
the world's most welcoming nations,
the world's most welcoming nations,
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Uzmite u obzir da je Kanada danas
među najgostoljubivijim nacijama sveta,
među najgostoljubivijim nacijama sveta,
02:45
even compared to other
immigration-friendly countries.
immigration-friendly countries.
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čak i u poređenju sa drugim zemljama
prijateljski naklonjenih imigraciji.
prijateljski naklonjenih imigraciji.
02:49
Its per capita immigration rate
is four times higher than France's,
is four times higher than France's,
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Njena stopa imigracije po glavi stanovnika
je četiri puta veća od stope Francuske,
je četiri puta veća od stope Francuske,
a njen procenat stanovnika
rođenih u inostranstvu
rođenih u inostranstvu
02:53
and its percentage
of foreign-born residents
of foreign-born residents
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je dvostruko veći
od tog procenta u Švedskoj.
od tog procenta u Švedskoj.
02:56
is double that of Sweden.
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02:58
Meanwhile, Canada admitted
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U međuvremenu, Kanada je primila
02:59
10 times more Syrian refugees
in the last year
in the last year
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deset puta više sirijskih izbeglica
tokom prošle godine
tokom prošle godine
03:03
than did the United States.
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nego Sjedinjene Države.
03:05
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
03:12
And now Canada is taking even more.
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A sada ih Kanada još više prihvata.
03:14
And yet, if you ask Canadians
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Ipak, ako upitate Kanađane
03:16
what makes them proudest of their country,
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šta ih najviše čini ponosnim
na svoju zemlju,
na svoju zemlju,
03:19
they rank "multiculturalism,"
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rangiraju „multikulturalizam“,
03:22
a dirty word in most places,
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što je okaljana reč na većini mesta,
03:24
second,
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na drugom mestu,
03:25
ahead of hockey.
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ispred hokeja.
03:27
Hockey.
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Hokej.
03:28
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
03:31
In other words,
at a time when other countries
at a time when other countries
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Drugim rečima, u vreme kada druge zemlje
03:34
are now frantically building
new barriers to keep foreigners out,
new barriers to keep foreigners out,
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sada mahnito grade nove barijere
da bi zadržale strance podalje,
da bi zadržale strance podalje,
03:37
Canadians want even more of them in.
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Kanađani žele još više njih.
03:41
Now, here's the really interesting part.
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Evo zaista zanimljivog dela.
03:43
Canada wasn't always like this.
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Kanada nije uvek bila takva.
03:45
Until the mid-1960s, Canada followed
an explicitly racist immigration policy.
an explicitly racist immigration policy.
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Do sredine 1960-ih, Kanada je sledila
otvoreno rasističku imigracionu politiku.
otvoreno rasističku imigracionu politiku.
03:52
They called it "White Canada,"
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Zvali su je „Bela Kanada“,
03:54
and as you can see, they were not
just talking about the snow.
just talking about the snow.
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a kao što možete videti,
nisu samo govorili o snegu.
nisu samo govorili o snegu.
03:59
So how did that Canada
become today's Canada?
become today's Canada?
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Dakle, kako je ta Kanada
postala današnja Kanada?
postala današnja Kanada?
Pa, uprkos ono što će vam reći
moja mama u Ontariju,
moja mama u Ontariju,
04:05
Well, despite what my mom
in Ontario will tell you,
in Ontario will tell you,
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04:07
the answer had nothing to do with virtue.
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odgovor nema nikakve veze sa vrlinom.
04:09
Canadians are not inherently
better than anyone else.
better than anyone else.
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Kanađani nisu prirodno bolji
ni od koga drugog.
ni od koga drugog.
04:13
The real explanation involves the man
who became Canada's leader in 1968,
who became Canada's leader in 1968,
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Pravo objašnjenje obuhvata čoveka
koji je postao kanadski vođa 1968. godine,
koji je postao kanadski vođa 1968. godine,
04:17
Pierre Trudeau, who is also
the father of the current prime minister.
the father of the current prime minister.
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Pjera Trudoa, koji je takođe otac
sadašnjeg premijera.
sadašnjeg premijera.
04:21
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
04:25
The thing to know about that first Trudeau
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Ono što treba znati o tom prvom Trudou
je da je bio veoma drugačiji
u odnosu na prethodne vođe Kanade.
u odnosu na prethodne vođe Kanade.
04:27
is that he was very different
from Canada's previous leaders.
from Canada's previous leaders.
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04:29
He was a French speaker in a country
long-dominated by its English elite.
long-dominated by its English elite.
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Govorio je francuskim jezikom u zemlji
kojom je dugo dominirala engleska elita.
kojom je dugo dominirala engleska elita.
04:34
He was an intellectual.
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Bio je intelektualac.
04:36
He was even kind of groovy.
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Nekako je bio strava.
04:38
I mean, seriously, the guy did yoga.
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Mislim, ozbiljno, tip je vežbao jogu.
04:41
He hung out with the Beatles.
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Družio se sa Bitlsima.
04:42
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
04:44
And like all hipsters,
he could be infuriating at times.
he could be infuriating at times.
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Kao i svi hipsteri, umeo je
da povremeno razbesni druge.
da povremeno razbesni druge.
04:48
But he nevertheless pulled off
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Međutim, i pored toga mu je uspeo
04:50
one of the most progressive
transformations any country has ever seen.
transformations any country has ever seen.
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jedan od najnaprednijih preobražaja
koji je bilo koja zemlja ikada videla.
koji je bilo koja zemlja ikada videla.
Njegova formula je,
kako sam saznao, obuhvatala dva dela.
kako sam saznao, obuhvatala dva dela.
04:56
His formula, I've learned,
involved two parts.
involved two parts.
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04:58
First, Canada threw out
its old race-based immigration rules,
its old race-based immigration rules,
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Najpre, Kanada je odbacila
stara imigraciona pravila bazirana na rasi
stara imigraciona pravila bazirana na rasi
05:02
and it replaced them
with new color-blind ones
with new color-blind ones
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i zamenila ih novim
koja nisu razlikovala boje
koja nisu razlikovala boje
05:05
that emphasized education,
experience and language skills instead.
experience and language skills instead.
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i koja su umesto toga naglašavala
obrazovanje, iskustvo i jezičke veštine.
obrazovanje, iskustvo i jezičke veštine.
05:10
And what that did
was greatly increase the odds
was greatly increase the odds
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To je znatno povećalo izglede
05:13
that newcomers would
contribute to the economy.
contribute to the economy.
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da će pridošlice doprineti ekonomiji.
05:16
Then part two, Trudeau
created the world's first policy
created the world's first policy
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Zatim, drugi deo je da je Trudo stvorio
prvu svetsku politiku
prvu svetsku politiku
05:20
of official multiculturalism
to promote integration
to promote integration
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zvaničnog multikulturalizma
da bi promovisao integraciju
da bi promovisao integraciju
05:24
and the idea that diversity
was the key to Canada's identity.
was the key to Canada's identity.
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i ideju da je raznovrsnost
ključ identiteta Kanade.
ključ identiteta Kanade.
05:29
Now, in the years that followed,
Ottawa kept pushing this message,
Ottawa kept pushing this message,
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Tokom godina koje su usledile,
Otava je nastavljala da nameće tu poruku,
Otava je nastavljala da nameće tu poruku,
05:33
but at the same time, ordinary Canadians
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ali su istovremeno obični Kanađani
uskoro počeli da uviđaju
uskoro počeli da uviđaju
05:35
soon started to see the economic,
the material benefits of multiculturalism
the material benefits of multiculturalism
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ekonomske, materijalne prednosti
multikulturalizma
multikulturalizma
05:40
all around them.
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svuda oko sebe.
05:41
And these two influences soon combined
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Ta dva uticaja su se uskoro udružila
05:44
to create the passionately
open-minded Canada of today.
open-minded Canada of today.
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da bi stvorila današnju Kanadu
sa strastveno otvorenim umom.
sa strastveno otvorenim umom.
05:49
Let's now turn to another country
and an even tougher problem,
and an even tougher problem,
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Hajde da se sada pozabavimo
drugom zemljom i još težim problemom,
drugom zemljom i još težim problemom,
05:53
Islamic extremism.
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islamskim ekstremizmom.
05:55
In 1998, the people of Indonesia
took to the streets
took to the streets
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Godine 1998, narod Indonezije
izašao je na ulice
izašao je na ulice
05:58
and overthrew
their longtime dictator, Suharto.
their longtime dictator, Suharto.
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i zbacio dugogodišnjeg diktatora Suhartoa.
06:02
It was an amazing moment,
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Bio je to neverovatan trenutak,
06:04
but it was also a scary one.
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ali takođe i zastrašujuć.
06:06
With 250 million people,
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Sa 250 miliona ljudi,
06:08
Indonesia is the largest
Muslim-majority country on Earth.
Muslim-majority country on Earth.
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Indonezija je najveća zemlja na planeti
sa većinskim muslimanskim stanovništvom.
sa većinskim muslimanskim stanovništvom.
06:12
It's also hot, huge and unruly,
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Takođe je topla, ogromna i nemirna,
06:15
made up of 17,000 islands,
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sačinjena od 17 000 ostrva,
06:17
where people speak
close to a thousand languages.
close to a thousand languages.
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gde ljudi govore blizu hiljadu jezika.
06:20
Now, Suharto had been a dictator,
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Suharto je bio diktator
06:23
and a nasty one.
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i to grozan.
06:24
But he'd also been
a pretty effective tyrant,
a pretty effective tyrant,
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Međutim, takođe je bio
prilično efikasan tiranin
prilično efikasan tiranin
06:27
and he'd always been careful
to keep religion out of politics.
to keep religion out of politics.
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i uvek je pazio da drži religiju
izvan politike.
izvan politike.
06:31
So experts feared that without
him keeping a lid on things,
him keeping a lid on things,
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Stoga su se stručnjaci bojali da će,
bez njegove kontrole,
bez njegove kontrole,
06:34
the country would explode,
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zemlja eksplodirati,
ili bi verski ekstremisti preuzeli stvar
06:36
or religious extremists would take over
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06:38
and turn Indonesia
into a tropical version of Iran.
into a tropical version of Iran.
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i pretvorili Indoneziju
u tropsku verziju Irana.
u tropsku verziju Irana.
06:43
And that's just what seemed
to happen at first.
to happen at first.
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To je upravo ono što je isprva
delovalo da se dešava.
delovalo da se dešava.
06:46
In the country's
first free elections, in 1999,
first free elections, in 1999,
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Na prvim slobodnim izborima
u zemlji, 1999. godine,
u zemlji, 1999. godine,
06:49
Islamist parties scored
36 percent of the vote,
36 percent of the vote,
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islamističke stranke su dobile
36 posto glasova,
36 posto glasova,
06:52
and the islands burned
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a ostrva su gorela
06:54
as riots and terror attacks
killed thousands.
killed thousands.
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dok su neredi i teroristički napadi
ubili hiljade ljudi.
ubili hiljade ljudi.
06:58
Since then, however,
Indonesia has taken a surprising turn.
Indonesia has taken a surprising turn.
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Međutim, od tada je Indonezija
napravila iznenađujuć preokret.
napravila iznenađujuć preokret.
07:03
While ordinary folks have grown
more pious on a personal level --
more pious on a personal level --
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Dok su obični ljudi
postali pobožniji na ličnom nivou -
postali pobožniji na ličnom nivou -
video sam mnogo više
marama na glavi pri nedavnoj poseti
marama na glavi pri nedavnoj poseti
07:07
I saw a lot more headscarves
on a recent visit
on a recent visit
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07:09
than I would have a decade ago --
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nego što bih video deceniju ranije -
07:11
the country's politics
have moved in the opposite direction.
have moved in the opposite direction.
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politika zemlje je krenula
u suprotnom pravcu.
u suprotnom pravcu.
07:15
Indonesia is now
a pretty decent democracy.
a pretty decent democracy.
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Indonezija je sada
prilično pristojna demokratija.
prilično pristojna demokratija.
Štaviše, njene islamističke stranke
su postepeno gubile podršku,
su postepeno gubile podršku,
07:20
And yet, its Islamist parties
have steadily lost support,
have steadily lost support,
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07:23
from a high of about 38 percent in 2004
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od visokih 38 posto 2004. godine
07:26
down to 25 percent in 2014.
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do 25 posto 2014. godine.
07:30
As for terrorism, it's now extremely rare.
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Što se tiče terorizma,
sada je izuzetno redak.
sada je izuzetno redak.
07:34
And while a few Indonesians
have recently joined ISIS,
have recently joined ISIS,
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Iako se nekoliko Indonežana
nedavno pridružilo ISIS-u,
nedavno pridružilo ISIS-u,
07:37
their number is tiny,
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njihov broj je mali,
07:39
far fewer in per capita terms
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daleko manji prema glavi stanovnika
07:42
than the number of Belgians.
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nego broj Belgijanaca.
Pokušajte da se prisetite druge zemlje
sa većinom muslimana
sa većinom muslimana
07:46
Try to think of one other
Muslim-majority country
Muslim-majority country
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07:48
that can say all those same things.
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koja može reći to isto.
Godine 2014, otišao sam u Indoneziju
da pitam njenog trenutnog predsednika,
da pitam njenog trenutnog predsednika,
07:51
In 2014, I went to Indonesia
to ask its current president,
to ask its current president,
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07:54
a soft-spoken technocrat
named Joko Widodo,
named Joko Widodo,
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tihog tehnokratu po imenu Đoko Vidodo:
07:57
"Why is Indonesia thriving when
so many other Muslim states are dying?"
so many other Muslim states are dying?"
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„Zašto Indonezija napreduje
kada toliko drugih
muslimanskih zemalja izumire?“
muslimanskih zemalja izumire?“
„Pa, ono što smo shvatili“, rekao mi je,
08:03
"Well, what we realized," he told me,
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„jeste da, da bismo se izborili
sa ekstremizmom,
sa ekstremizmom,
08:04
"is that to deal with extremism,
we needed to deal with inequality first."
we needed to deal with inequality first."
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moramo se najpre izboriti
sa nejednakošću.“
sa nejednakošću.“
08:09
See, Indonesia's religious parties,
like similar parties elsewhere,
like similar parties elsewhere,
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Vidite, verske stranke Indonezije,
kao i slične stranke bilo gde drugde,
kao i slične stranke bilo gde drugde,
08:13
had tended to focus on things like
reducing poverty and cutting corruption.
reducing poverty and cutting corruption.
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bile su sklone da se fokusiraju na stvari
kao što je smanjenje siromaštva
kao što je smanjenje siromaštva
i ukidanje korupcije.
08:18
So that's what Joko
and his predecessors did too,
and his predecessors did too,
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Đoko i njegovi prethodnici
su to takođe radili,
su to takođe radili,
08:20
thereby stealing the Islamists' thunder.
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čime su islamistima ukrali štos.
08:23
They also cracked down hard on terrorism,
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Takođe su preduzmali oštre mere
protiv terorizma,
protiv terorizma,
08:26
but Indonesia's democrats
have learned a key lesson
have learned a key lesson
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ali su indonezijske demokrate
naučile ključnu lekciju
naučile ključnu lekciju
08:28
from the dark years of dictatorship,
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iz mračnih godina diktature,
08:30
namely that repression
only creates more extremism.
only creates more extremism.
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naime, da potiskivanje
samo stvara više ekstremizma.
samo stvara više ekstremizma.
08:36
So they waged their war
with extraordinary delicacy.
with extraordinary delicacy.
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Tako su vodili svoj rat
sa izuzetnom delikatnošću.
sa izuzetnom delikatnošću.
08:40
They used the police instead of the army.
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Koristili su policiju umesto vojske.
08:42
They only detained suspects
if they had enough evidence.
if they had enough evidence.
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Zadržavali su osumnjičene
samo ako su imali dovoljno dokaza.
samo ako su imali dovoljno dokaza.
08:45
They held public trials.
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Održavali su javna suđenja.
08:46
They even sent
liberal imams into the jails
liberal imams into the jails
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Čak su slali liberalne imame u zatvor
08:49
to persuade the jihadists
that terror is un-Islamic.
that terror is un-Islamic.
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da bi ubedili džihadiste
da teror nije u skladu sa islamom.
da teror nije u skladu sa islamom.
08:52
And all of this paid off
in spectacular fashion,
in spectacular fashion,
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Sve se to isplatilo
na spektakularan način,
na spektakularan način,
08:55
creating the kind of country
that was unimaginable 20 years ago.
that was unimaginable 20 years ago.
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stvorivši takvu vrstu zemlje
koja je bila nezamisliva pre 20 godina.
koja je bila nezamisliva pre 20 godina.
09:00
So at this point,
my optimism should, I hope,
my optimism should, I hope,
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U ovom trenutku bi moj optimizam
trebalo da, nadam se,
trebalo da, nadam se,
09:03
be starting to make a bit more sense.
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počne da ima malo više smisla.
09:05
Neither immigration nor Islamic extremism
are impossible to deal with.
are impossible to deal with.
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Nije nemoguće izboriti se sa imigracijom
niti sa islamskim ekstremizmom.
niti sa islamskim ekstremizmom.
Sada mi se pridružite
na poslednjem putovanju,
na poslednjem putovanju,
09:10
Join me now on one last trip,
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09:12
this time to Mexico.
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ovoga puta do Meksika.
09:14
Now, of our three stories,
this one probably surprised me the most,
this one probably surprised me the most,
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Od naše tri priče, ova me je
verovatno najviše iznenadila,
verovatno najviše iznenadila,
09:18
since as you all know,
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jer kao što svi znate,
09:19
the country is still struggling
with so many problems.
with so many problems.
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zemlja se još bori
sa toliko mnogo problema.
sa toliko mnogo problema.
09:22
And yet, a few years ago,
Mexico did something
Mexico did something
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Ipak, pre nekoliko godina,
Meksiko je uradio nešto
Meksiko je uradio nešto
09:25
that many other countries
from France to India to the United States
from France to India to the United States
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što mnoge druge zemlje, od Francuske
i Indije do Sjedinjenih Država,
i Indije do Sjedinjenih Država,
09:30
can still only dream of.
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mogu za sada samo da sanjaju.
09:32
It shattered the political paralysis
that had gripped it for years.
that had gripped it for years.
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Razbio je političku paralizu
koja ga je godinama prikovala.
koja ga je godinama prikovala.
09:37
To understand how,
we need to rewind to the year 2000,
we need to rewind to the year 2000,
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Da bismo razumeli kako,
moramo premotati na 2000. godinu,
moramo premotati na 2000. godinu,
09:40
when Mexico finally became a democracy.
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kada je Meksiko
konačno postao demokratija.
konačno postao demokratija.
09:42
Rather than use their new freedoms
to fight for reform,
to fight for reform,
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Umesto da koriste svoje nove slobode
da bi se borili za reformu,
da bi se borili za reformu,
09:47
Mexico's politicians used them
to fight one another.
to fight one another.
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meksički političari su ih koristili
da se bore međusobno.
da se bore međusobno.
09:50
Congress deadlocked,
and the country's problems --
and the country's problems --
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Kongres u zastoju i problemi u zemlji -
09:53
drugs, poverty, crime, corruption --
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droga, siromaštvo, kriminal, korupcija -
09:56
spun out of control.
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otrgli su se kontroli.
09:58
Things got so bad that in 2008,
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Postalo je tako loše da je 2008. godine
10:00
the Pentagon warned
that Mexico risked collapse.
that Mexico risked collapse.
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Pentagon upozorio da je Meksiko
pod rizikom od propasti.
pod rizikom od propasti.
10:04
Then in 2012, this guy
named Enrique Peña Nieto
named Enrique Peña Nieto
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Zatim je 2012. godine
tip po imenu Enrike Penja Nijeto
tip po imenu Enrike Penja Nijeto
10:09
somehow got himself elected president.
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nekako uspeo da bude izabran
za predsednika.
za predsednika.
10:11
Now, this Peña hardly inspired
much confidence at first.
much confidence at first.
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Taj Penja jedva da je ulivao
mnogo poverenja u početku.
mnogo poverenja u početku.
10:16
Sure, he was handsome,
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Svakako, bio je zgodan,
10:18
but he came from Mexico's
corrupt old ruling party, the PRI,
corrupt old ruling party, the PRI,
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ali je došao iz stare korumpirane
rukovodeće meksičke stranke, PRI,
rukovodeće meksičke stranke, PRI,
10:22
and he was a notorious womanizer.
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i bio je ozloglašeni ženskaroš.
10:26
In fact, he seemed
like such a pretty boy lightweight
like such a pretty boy lightweight
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Zapravo, delovao je kao nevažni lepotan
10:29
that women called him "bombón," sweetie,
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kojeg su žene zvale „bombon“, slatkiš,
10:32
at campaign rallies.
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na skupovima kampanje.
10:35
And yet this same bombón
soon surprised everyone
soon surprised everyone
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Ipak, taj isti „bombon“
je uskoro sve iznenadio
je uskoro sve iznenadio
10:39
by hammering out a truce
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kada je zakucao primirje
10:40
between the country's
three warring political parties.
three warring political parties.
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između tri zaraćene
političke stranke u zemlji.
političke stranke u zemlji.
10:43
And over the next 18 months,
they together passed
they together passed
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Tokom narednih 18 meseci,
zajedno su doneli
zajedno su doneli
10:45
an incredibly comprehensive
set of reforms.
set of reforms.
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izuzetno sveobuhvatan skup reformi.
10:48
They busted open Mexico's
smothering monopolies.
smothering monopolies.
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Rasturili su pljačkaške monopole Meksika.
10:51
They liberalized
its rusting energy sector.
its rusting energy sector.
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Liberalizovali su
njegov zarđali energetski sektor.
njegov zarđali energetski sektor.
10:55
They restructured
its failing schools, and much more.
its failing schools, and much more.
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Restrukturirali su njegove propale škole
i još mnogo toga.
i još mnogo toga.
10:58
To appreciate the scale
of this accomplishment,
of this accomplishment,
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Da biste cenili razmere ovog postignuća,
11:00
try to imagine the US Congress
passing immigration reform,
passing immigration reform,
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pokušajte da zamislite da Kongres SAD-a
donese imigracionu reformu,
donese imigracionu reformu,
11:04
campaign finance reform
and banking reform.
and banking reform.
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reformu finansiranja kampanja
i reformu bankarstva.
i reformu bankarstva.
11:07
Now, try to imagine Congress
doing it all at the same time.
doing it all at the same time.
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Sada pokušajte da zamislite
da Kongres sve to uradi istovremeno.
da Kongres sve to uradi istovremeno.
11:11
That's what Mexico did.
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To je ono što je Meksiko uradio.
11:14
Not long ago, I met with Peña
and asked how he managed it all.
and asked how he managed it all.
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Nedavno sam se sastao sa Penjom
i pitao ga kako je sve to uspeo.
i pitao ga kako je sve to uspeo.
11:18
The President flashed me
his famous twinkly smile --
his famous twinkly smile --
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Predsednik mi je uputio
njegov čuveni blještavi osmeh -
njegov čuveni blještavi osmeh -
11:21
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
11:24
and told me that the short answer
was "compromiso," compromise.
was "compromiso," compromise.
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i rekao mi je da je odgovor
na to ukratko - kompromis.
na to ukratko - kompromis.
Naravno, navaljivao sam da mi da detalje,
11:29
Of course, I pushed him for details,
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11:31
and the long answer
that came out was essentially
that came out was essentially
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a duži odgovor koji je proizašao
u suštini je glasio
u suštini je glasio
11:33
"compromise, compromise
and more compromise."
and more compromise."
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„kompromis, kompromis i još kompromisa“.
11:37
See, Peña knew that he needed
to build trust early,
to build trust early,
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Vidite, Penja je znao da treba
da rano izgradi poverenje,
da rano izgradi poverenje,
pa je počeo da razgovara sa opozicijom
samo nekoliko dana nakon njegovog odabira.
samo nekoliko dana nakon njegovog odabira.
11:40
so he started talking to the opposition
just days after his election.
just days after his election.
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11:43
To ward off pressure
from special interests,
from special interests,
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Da bi izbegao pritisak interesnih grupa,
11:46
he kept their meetings small and secret,
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sastanke je održavao
kao male i u tajnosti,
kao male i u tajnosti,
11:49
and many of the participants
later told me that it was this intimacy,
later told me that it was this intimacy,
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a mnogi učesnici su mi kasnije rekli
da je ta intimnost,
da je ta intimnost,
plus dosta tekile koju su podelili,
11:53
plus a lot of shared tequila,
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11:55
that helped build confidence.
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pomogla da se izgradi poverenje.
Takođe je pomogla činjenica
da su sve odluke morale biti jednoglasne
da su sve odluke morale biti jednoglasne
11:57
So did the fact that all decisions
had to be unanimous,
had to be unanimous,
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12:00
and that Peña even agreed to pass
some of the other party's priorities
some of the other party's priorities
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i da se Penja čak složio
da propusti prioritete druge stranke
da propusti prioritete druge stranke
12:04
before his own.
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ispred sopstvenih.
12:06
As Santiago Creel,
an opposition senator, put it to me,
an opposition senator, put it to me,
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Kako mi je to izneo Santjago Kril,
senator opozicije:
senator opozicije:
12:09
"Look, I'm not saying that I'm special
or that anyone is special,
or that anyone is special,
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„Vidi, ne kažem da sam ja poseban
ili da je bilo ko poseban,
ili da je bilo ko poseban,
12:14
but that group, that was special."
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ali ta grupa, to je bilo posebno.“
12:18
The proof?
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Dokaz?
12:19
When Peña was sworn in, the pact held,
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Kada je Pena položio zakletvu,
pakt se održao,
pakt se održao,
12:22
and Mexico moved forward
for the first time in years.
for the first time in years.
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a Meksiko je napredovao
po prvi put nakon mnogo godina.
po prvi put nakon mnogo godina.
12:27
Bueno.
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Dobro.
12:28
So now we've seen
how these three countries
how these three countries
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Sada smo videli kako su ove tri zemlje
12:31
overcame three of their great challenges.
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prebrodile tri svoja najveća izazova.
12:33
And that's very nice for them, right?
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To je baš fino za njih, zar ne?
12:35
But what good does it do the rest of us?
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Međutim, kakve koristi
od toga ima ostatak nas?
od toga ima ostatak nas?
12:39
Well, in the course of studying these
and a bunch of other success stories,
and a bunch of other success stories,
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Pa, tokom izučavanja ovih
i gomile drugih uspešnih priča,
i gomile drugih uspešnih priča,
12:42
like the way Rwanda pulled itself
back together after civil war
back together after civil war
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kao što je način na koji se Ruanda
povratila posle građanskog rata
povratila posle građanskog rata
12:46
or Brazil has reduced inequality,
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ili na koji je Brazil umanjio nejednakost,
12:49
or South Korea has kept its economy
growing faster and for longer
growing faster and for longer
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ili kako je Južna Koreja
održala ekonomiju u porastu brže i duže
održala ekonomiju u porastu brže i duže
12:53
than any other country on Earth,
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od bilo koje države na planeti,
12:55
I've noticed a few common threads.
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primetio sam nekoliko zajedničkih tema.
12:57
Now, before describing them,
I need to add a caveat.
I need to add a caveat.
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Pre nego što ih opišem,
moram da dodam jednu primedbu.
moram da dodam jednu primedbu.
13:00
I realize, of course,
that all countries are unique.
that all countries are unique.
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Shvatam, naravno,
da su sve zemlje jedinstvene.
da su sve zemlje jedinstvene.
13:03
So you can't simply
take what worked in one,
take what worked in one,
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Stoga ne možete prosto uzeti
ono što je uspelo u jednoj,
ono što je uspelo u jednoj,
13:06
port it to another
and expect it to work there too.
and expect it to work there too.
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preneti to na drugu
i očekivati da to i tamo funkcioniše,
i očekivati da to i tamo funkcioniše,
13:08
Nor do specific solutions work forever.
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niti će određena rešenja uspevati večno.
13:11
You've got to adapt them
as circumstances change.
as circumstances change.
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Morate ih prilagoditi
dok se okolnosti menjaju.
dok se okolnosti menjaju.
13:14
That said, by stripping
these stories to their essence,
these stories to their essence,
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Međutim, ako ogolite
ove priče do njihove suštine,
ove priče do njihove suštine,
13:18
you absolutely can distill
a few common tools for problem-solving
a few common tools for problem-solving
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apsolutno možete izvući nekoliko
zajedničkih načina za rešavanje problema
zajedničkih načina za rešavanje problema
13:23
that will work in other countries
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koje će delovati u drugim zemljama,
13:26
and in boardrooms
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u konferencijskim salama
13:27
and in all sorts of other contexts, too.
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i u raznim drugim kontekstima, takođe.
13:30
Number one, embrace the extreme.
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Broj jedan, prigrlite krajnost.
U svim pričama koje smo upravo razmotrili,
13:33
In all the stories we've just looked at,
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spas je došao u trenutku
egzistencijalne opasnosti.
egzistencijalne opasnosti.
13:35
salvation came at a moment
of existential peril.
of existential peril.
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13:39
And that was no coincidence.
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To nije bila slučajnost.
Uzmite Kanadu - kada je Trudo
stupio na funkciju,
stupio na funkciju,
13:41
Take Canada: when Trudeau took office,
he faced two looming dangers.
he faced two looming dangers.
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suočio se sa dve opasnosti
koje su se nadvijale.
koje su se nadvijale.
Prvo, iako je njegovoj prostranoj,
nedovoljno nastanjenoj zemlji
nedovoljno nastanjenoj zemlji
13:46
First, though his vast,
underpopulated country
underpopulated country
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13:49
badly needed more bodies,
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jako bilo potrebno više ljudi,
njen najpoželjniji izvor belih radnika,
Evropa, prestala je da ih izvozi
Evropa, prestala je da ih izvozi
13:50
its preferred source
for white workers, Europe,
for white workers, Europe,
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13:53
had just stopped exporting them
as it finally recovered from World War II.
as it finally recovered from World War II.
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kako se konačno oporavila
od Drugog svetskog rata.
od Drugog svetskog rata.
13:57
The other problem was
that Canada's long cold war
that Canada's long cold war
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Drugi problem je bio
što je kanadski dugi hladni rat
što je kanadski dugi hladni rat
14:00
between its French
and its English communities
and its English communities
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između njenih francuskih
i engleskih zajednica
i engleskih zajednica
14:03
had just become a hot one.
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upravo postao uzavreo.
14:05
Quebec was threatening to secede,
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Kvebek je pretio da se odvoji
14:07
and Canadians were actually
killing other Canadians over politics.
killing other Canadians over politics.
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i Kanađani su zapravo ubijali
druge Kanađane zbog politike.
druge Kanađane zbog politike.
14:11
Now, countries face
crises all the time. Right?
crises all the time. Right?
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Sad, zemlje se stalno suočavaju
sa krizama, zar ne?
sa krizama, zar ne?
14:14
That's nothing special.
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To nije ništa posebno.
14:16
But Trudeau's genius
was to realize that Canada's crisis
was to realize that Canada's crisis
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Ipak, Trudoov genije
je shvatio da je kanadska kriza
je shvatio da je kanadska kriza
14:20
had swept away all the hurdles
that usually block reform.
that usually block reform.
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uklonila sve prepreke
koje obično blokiraju reforme.
koje obično blokiraju reforme.
14:24
Canada had to open up. It had no choice.
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Kanada je morala da se otvori.
Nije imala izbora.
Nije imala izbora.
Morala je da iznova osmisli
svoj identitet.
svoj identitet.
14:29
And it had to rethink its identity.
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14:30
Again, it had no choice.
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Još jednom, nije imala izbora.
14:32
And that gave Trudeau
a once-in-a-generation opportunity
a once-in-a-generation opportunity
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To je Trudou dalo priliku
koja dolazi jednom u generaciji
koja dolazi jednom u generaciji
14:36
to break the old rules and write new ones.
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da sruši stara pravila i napiše nova.
14:39
And like all our other heroes,
he was smart enough to seize it.
he was smart enough to seize it.
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Kao i svi drugi naši heroji,
bio je dovoljno pametan da je zgrabi.
bio je dovoljno pametan da je zgrabi.
14:44
Number two, there's power
in promiscuous thinking.
in promiscuous thinking.
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Broj dva, postoji moć
u promiskuitetnom razmišljanju.
u promiskuitetnom razmišljanju.
Druga upadljiva sličnost
između onih koji dobro rešavaju probleme
između onih koji dobro rešavaju probleme
14:48
Another striking similarity
among good problem-solvers
among good problem-solvers
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14:51
is that they're all pragmatists.
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je da su svi pragmatisti.
14:53
They'll steal the best answers
from wherever they find them,
from wherever they find them,
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Ukrašće najbolje odgovore
kod koga god da ih pronađu
kod koga god da ih pronađu
i ne dozvoljavaju da se ispreče detalji
14:56
and they don't let details
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14:57
like party or ideology
or sentimentality get in their way.
or sentimentality get in their way.
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poput stranke, ideologije
ili sentimentalnosti.
ili sentimentalnosti.
Kao što sam pomenuo ranije, demokrate
u Indoneziji su bile dovoljno pametne
u Indoneziji su bile dovoljno pametne
15:03
As I mentioned earlier,
Indonesia's democrats were clever enough
Indonesia's democrats were clever enough
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15:06
to steal many of the Islamists'
best campaign promises for themselves.
best campaign promises for themselves.
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da ukradu za sebe mnoga od islamističkih
najboljih kampanjskih obećanja.
najboljih kampanjskih obećanja.
15:11
They even invited some of the radicals
into their governing coalition.
into their governing coalition.
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Čak su pozvali neke od radikala
u svoju vladajuću koaliciju.
u svoju vladajuću koaliciju.
15:15
Now, that horrified
a lot of secular Indonesians.
a lot of secular Indonesians.
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To je užasnulo
mnogo sekularnih Indonežana.
mnogo sekularnih Indonežana.
15:19
But by forcing the radicals
to actually help govern,
to actually help govern,
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Međutim, primoravanje radikala
da zapravo pomognu u vlasti
da zapravo pomognu u vlasti
15:24
it quickly exposed the fact
that they weren't any good at the job,
that they weren't any good at the job,
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ubrzo je razotkrilo činjenicu
da uopšte nisu dobri za taj posao
da uopšte nisu dobri za taj posao
15:28
and it got them mixed up
in all of the grubby compromises
in all of the grubby compromises
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i to ih je umešalo
u sve prljave kompromise
u sve prljave kompromise
15:31
and petty humiliations
that are part of everyday politics.
that are part of everyday politics.
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i sitna poniženja
koja su deo svakodnevne politike.
koja su deo svakodnevne politike.
15:34
And that hurt their image so badly
that they've never recovered.
that they've never recovered.
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To je toliko naškodilo njihovom imidžu
da se nikada nisu oporavili.
da se nikada nisu oporavili.
15:39
Number three,
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Broj tri,
15:40
please all of the people some of the time.
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ponekad udovoljite svim ljudima.
15:44
I know I just mentioned how crises
can grant leaders extraordinary freedoms.
can grant leaders extraordinary freedoms.
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Znam da sam pomenuo kako kriza
može vođama pružiti izuzetnu slobodu.
može vođama pružiti izuzetnu slobodu.
15:49
And that's true, but problem-solving
often requires more than just boldness.
often requires more than just boldness.
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To je tačno, ali rešavanje problema
često zahteva više od same smelosti.
često zahteva više od same smelosti.
15:53
It takes showing restraint, too,
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Takođe je potrebno pokazati uzdržanost,
15:55
just when that's
the last thing you want to do.
the last thing you want to do.
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baš kada je to poslednje
što biste da uradite.
što biste da uradite.
15:58
Take Trudeau: when he took office,
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Uzmite Trudoa - kada je preuzeo dužnost,
16:00
he could easily have put
his core constituency,
his core constituency,
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mogao lako da postavi
svoje osnovno biračko telo,
svoje osnovno biračko telo,
16:03
that is Canada's French community, first.
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a to je francuska kanadska zajednica,
na prvo mesto.
na prvo mesto.
16:05
He could have pleased
some of the people all of the time.
some of the people all of the time.
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Mogao je da neke ljude
učini zadovoljnim za stalno.
učini zadovoljnim za stalno.
16:09
And Peña could have used his power
to keep attacking the opposition,
to keep attacking the opposition,
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Penja je mogao da iskoristi svoju moć
da nastavi da napada opoziciju,
da nastavi da napada opoziciju,
16:13
as was traditional in Mexico.
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kao što je bilo po običaju u Meksiku.
16:15
Yet he chose to embrace
his enemies instead,
his enemies instead,
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Ipak, odabrao je da umesto toga
prigrli svoje neprijatelje,
prigrli svoje neprijatelje,
16:18
while forcing his own party to compromise.
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pri tome primoravajući
svoju stranku na kompromis.
svoju stranku na kompromis.
16:20
And Trudeau pushed everyone
to stop thinking in tribal terms
to stop thinking in tribal terms
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A Trudo je pritisnuo sve da prestanu
da razmišljaju u plemenskim okvirima
da razmišljaju u plemenskim okvirima
16:25
and to see multiculturalism,
not language and not skin color,
not language and not skin color,
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i da vide multikulturalizam,
a ne jezik ili boju kože,
a ne jezik ili boju kože,
16:29
as what made them
quintessentially Canadian.
quintessentially Canadian.
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kao nešto što ih u suštini
čini Kanađanima.
čini Kanađanima.
16:32
Nobody got everything they wanted,
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Niko nije dobio sve što je hteo,
16:35
but everyone got just enough
that the bargains held.
that the bargains held.
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ali je svako dobio dovoljno
da se pogodba održi.
da se pogodba održi.
16:40
So at this point you may be thinking,
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Možda razmišljate u ovom trenutku:
16:43
"OK, Tepperman,
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„U redu, Tepermane,
16:44
if the fixes really are out there
like you keep insisting,
like you keep insisting,
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ako rešenja zaista postoje
kao što uporno insistiraš,
kao što uporno insistiraš,
zašto ih onda već ne koristi više zemalja?
16:47
then why aren't more countries
already using them?"
already using them?"
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Ne može se reći da su im potrebne
specijalne moći da im uspe.
specijalne moći da im uspe.
16:50
It's not like they require
special powers to pull off.
special powers to pull off.
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16:53
I mean, none of the leaders
we've just looked at were superheroes.
we've just looked at were superheroes.
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Mislim, nijedan od vođa
koje smo upravo razmotrili
koje smo upravo razmotrili
nije superheroj.
16:56
They didn't accomplish
anything on their own,
anything on their own,
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Nisu ništa postigli samostalno
16:59
and they all had plenty of flaws.
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i imali su dosta mana.
17:01
Take Indonesia's
first democratic president,
first democratic president,
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Uzmite prvog demokratskog predsednika
Indonezije, Abdurahmana Vahida.
Indonezije, Abdurahmana Vahida.
17:03
Abdurrahman Wahid.
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17:05
This man was so powerfully uncharismatic
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Taj čovek je bio
toliko izazito neharizmatičan
toliko izazito neharizmatičan
17:08
that he once fell asleep
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da je jednom zaspao
17:10
in the middle of his own speech.
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usred sopstvenog govora.
17:12
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
17:14
True story.
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Istinita priča.
17:19
So what this tells us
is that the real obstacle is not ability,
is that the real obstacle is not ability,
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Ovo nam govori da prava prepreka
nije sposobnost,
nije sposobnost,
17:23
and it's not circumstances.
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a nisu ni okolnosti.
17:25
It's something much simpler.
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U pitanju je nešto mnogo jednostavnije.
17:27
Making big changes
involves taking big risks,
involves taking big risks,
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Stvaranje velikih promena
obuhvata preuzimanje velikih rizika,
obuhvata preuzimanje velikih rizika,
17:31
and taking big risks is scary.
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a preuzimanje velikih rizika
je zastrašujuće.
je zastrašujuće.
17:34
Overcoming that fear requires guts,
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Prevazilaženje tog straha
zahteva hrabrost,
zahteva hrabrost,
17:37
and as you all know,
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a kao što znate,
17:39
gutsy politicians are painfully rare.
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hrabri političari su bolno retki.
17:43
But that doesn't mean we voters
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Ipak, to ne znači da mi, glasači,
17:45
can't demand courage
from our political leaders.
from our political leaders.
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ne možemo zahtevati hrabrost
od naših političkih vođa.
od naših političkih vođa.
17:48
I mean, that's why we put them
in office in the first place.
in office in the first place.
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Mislim, zato smo ih pre svega
i postavili na funkcije.
i postavili na funkcije.
17:51
And given the state of the world today,
there's really no other option.
there's really no other option.
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Imajući u vidu stanje sveta danas,
zaista ne postoji druga opcija.
zaista ne postoji druga opcija.
17:55
The answers are out there,
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Odgovori postoje,
17:58
but now it's up to us
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ali sada je na nama
18:01
to elect more women and men
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da izaberemo više žena i muškaraca
18:03
brave enough to find them,
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koji su dovoljno hrabri da ih nađu,
18:06
to steal them
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da ih ukradu
18:07
and to make them work.
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i da učine da deluju.
18:09
Thank you.
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Hvala.
18:10
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Jonathan Tepperman - Global affairs thinkerJonathan Tepperman writes on the world's most pervasive and seemingly intractable challenges.
Why you should listen
Jonathan Tepperman is the managing editor of Foreign Affairs, the bimonthly journal published by the Council on Foreign Relations.
Tepperman started his career in international affairs as a speechwriter at the UN in Geneva, and he has written for publications including the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, The Atlantic and Newsweek. He has interviewed numerous world leaders including Syria's Bashar al-Assad, Japan’s Shinzo Abe, Brazil's Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Mexico's Enrique Peña Nieto, Indonesia's Joko Widodo and Rwanda’s Paul Kagame.
Tepperman's new book The Fix: How Nations Survive and Thrive in a World in Decline explores ten of the world's more pervasive and seemingly intractable challenges (such as economic stagnation, political gridlock, corruption and terrorism) and shows that, contrary to general consensus, each has a solution, one that has already been implemented somewhere in the world.
Jonathan Tepperman | Speaker | TED.com