TEDSummit
Jonathan Tepperman: The risky politics of progress
喬納森·特普曼: 在危機中前行的政治
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全球性問題，例如恐怖攻擊、不平等和政治失能，這些問題都不容易解決，但並不代表我們要停止努力。實際上，記者喬納森·特普曼認為，我們也許可以從更冒險的角度去思考。他走遍世界請教全球的領袖，問他們如何克服難題—— 並且發現了令人驚異的希望故事，他彙整了這些故事，並整理出三個解決問題的工具。
Jonathan Tepperman - Global affairs thinker
Jonathan Tepperman writes on the world's most pervasive and seemingly intractable challenges. Full bio
Jonathan Tepperman writes on the world's most pervasive and seemingly intractable challenges. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
The conventional wisdom
about our world today
about our world today
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傳統老一輩對世界的看法
00:15
is that this is a time
of terrible decline.
of terrible decline.
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認為現在是一個
相當墮落的年代。
相當墮落的年代。
00:19
And that's not surprising,
given the bad news all around us,
given the bad news all around us,
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看看我們身邊的壞消息，
會有這種看法並不讓人吃驚，
會有這種看法並不讓人吃驚，
00:23
from ISIS to inequality,
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從 ISIS 恐怖組織到社會不公、
00:25
political dysfunction, climate change,
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政治無能、氣候變化、
00:28
Brexit, and on and on.
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英國退出歐盟，等等。
00:31
But here's the thing,
and this may sound a little weird.
and this may sound a little weird.
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但我要說的是，
這聽起來可能有點怪。
這聽起來可能有點怪。
00:35
I actually don't buy
this gloomy narrative,
this gloomy narrative,
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實際上我不贊同這種悲觀的論述，
00:38
and I don't think you should either.
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我想你們應該也別贊同。
00:40
Look, it's not that
I don't see the problems.
I don't see the problems.
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請注意，我並不是沒有
注意到這些問題。
注意到這些問題。
00:43
I read the same headlines that you do.
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我和各位閱讀的
新聞標題都是一樣的。
新聞標題都是一樣的。
00:46
What I dispute is the conclusion
that so many people draw from them,
that so many people draw from them,
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我不認同標題黨的結論，
00:49
namely that we're all screwed
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說的好像我們都很爛一樣，
00:51
because the problems are unsolvable
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因為好像我們都無法解決問題，
00:54
and our governments are useless.
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而且我們的政府很無能。
00:57
Now, why do I say this?
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我為什麼要說這個？
00:58
It's not like I'm particularly
optimistic by nature.
optimistic by nature.
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並不是我天生就特別樂觀，
01:02
But something about the media's
constant doom-mongering
constant doom-mongering
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但是媒體持續散布這些負面消息，
01:06
with its fixation on problems
and not on answers
and not on answers
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把焦點放在問題上
而不是解決方案上，
而不是解決方案上，
01:09
has always really bugged me.
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讓我一直很惱怒。
01:11
So a few years ago I decided,
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所以幾年前，我決定，
01:14
well, I'm a journalist,
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嗯， 我是一名記者，
01:16
I should see if I can do any better
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我在想，我應該去試試我是否可以
01:18
by going around the world
and actually asking folks
and actually asking folks
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藉由採訪世界各地的人民，
讓世界變得更好，
讓世界變得更好，
01:21
if and how they've tackled
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問問他們在面臨巨大的
經濟和政治挑戰時，
經濟和政治挑戰時，
01:22
their big economic
and political challenges.
and political challenges.
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是如何解決的。
01:26
And what I found astonished me.
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另我相當震驚的是，
01:29
It turns out that there are remarkable
signs of progress out there,
signs of progress out there,
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我發現，世界進步的狀況相當驚人，
01:33
often in the most unexpected places,
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且經常出現在一些
最意想不到的地方，
最意想不到的地方，
01:36
and they've convinced me
that our great global challenges
that our great global challenges
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而且他們讓我確信
我們巨大的全球性挑戰
我們巨大的全球性挑戰
01:40
may not be so unsolvable after all.
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也許沒有想像中的困難。
01:43
Not only are there theoretical fixes;
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不僅理論上可以解決；
01:45
those fixes have been tried.
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而且那些方法已經被試驗過了，
01:47
They've worked.
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它們的確有效。
01:49
And they offer hope for the rest of us.
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而這也為我們其他人帶來了希望。
01:52
I'm going to show you what I mean
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我會藉由我去過的三個國家
01:54
by telling you about
how three of the countries I visited --
how three of the countries I visited --
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來向各位說明我的看法——
01:56
Canada, Indonesia and Mexico --
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加拿大、印尼和墨西哥——
01:58
overcame three supposedly
impossible problems.
impossible problems.
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他們是如何克服
三個似乎不可能解決的問題。
三個似乎不可能解決的問題。
02:02
Their stories matter because they contain
tools the rest of us can use,
tools the rest of us can use,
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他們的故事很重要，因為裡面包含了
可以解決我們問題的工具，
可以解決我們問題的工具，
02:06
and not just for those
particular problems,
particular problems,
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而且不僅僅可以解決
一些特定的問題，
一些特定的問題，
02:09
but for many others, too.
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還可以解決許多其它的問題。
02:13
When most people think
about my homeland, Canada, today,
about my homeland, Canada, today,
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當大多數人現在想到
我的家鄉，加拿大，的時候，
我的家鄉，加拿大，的時候，
02:17
if they think about Canada at all,
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他們能想到加拿大的就是...
02:19
they think cold, they think boring,
they think polite.
they think polite.
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寒冷、無聊，但很有禮貌。
02:22
They think we say "sorry" too much
in our funny accents.
in our funny accents.
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他們認為我們說 「對不起 」
時的口音很有趣。
時的口音很有趣。
02:26
And that's all true.
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這些都是事實。
02:28
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
02:29
Sorry.
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「對不起 」。
02:30
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
02:32
But Canada's also important
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但是加拿大也很重要，
02:35
because of its triumph over a problem
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因為他們解決了一個
02:37
currently tearing
many other countries apart:
many other countries apart:
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目前很多國家四分五裂的問題：
02:39
immigration.
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移民。
02:41
Consider, Canada today is among
the world's most welcoming nations,
the world's most welcoming nations,
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思考一下，加拿大是現今世上
最熱情的國家之一，
最熱情的國家之一，
02:45
even compared to other
immigration-friendly countries.
immigration-friendly countries.
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比起其它移民政策寬鬆
的國家還要熱情。
的國家還要熱情。
02:49
Its per capita immigration rate
is four times higher than France's,
is four times higher than France's,
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加拿大的平均移民人數
比法國高出四倍，
比法國高出四倍，
02:53
and its percentage
of foreign-born residents
of foreign-born residents
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而且加拿大在國外
出生的居民
出生的居民
02:56
is double that of Sweden.
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是瑞典的兩倍。
02:58
Meanwhile, Canada admitted
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同時，加拿大去年接納的
02:59
10 times more Syrian refugees
in the last year
in the last year
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敘利亞難民比美國接納的
03:03
than did the United States.
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還多十倍。
03:05
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
03:12
And now Canada is taking even more.
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而且現在加拿大
還在接收難民。
還在接收難民。
03:14
And yet, if you ask Canadians
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但是，如果你問加拿大人
03:16
what makes them proudest of their country,
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什麼最讓他們引以為傲，
03:19
they rank "multiculturalism,"
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他們把「多元文化」，
03:22
a dirty word in most places,
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一個在多數地方
不受歡迎的詞語，
不受歡迎的詞語，
03:24
second,
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排在第二，
03:25
ahead of hockey.
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排名在曲棍球之前，
03:27
Hockey.
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曲棍球。
03:28
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
03:31
In other words,
at a time when other countries
at a time when other countries
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換句話說，當其他國家
03:34
are now frantically building
new barriers to keep foreigners out,
new barriers to keep foreigners out,
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拼命製造障礙來
阻擋外來移民的時候，
阻擋外來移民的時候，
03:37
Canadians want even more of them in.
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加拿大人想讓
更多的移民進來。
更多的移民進來。
03:41
Now, here's the really interesting part.
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接下來是很有趣的部分。
03:43
Canada wasn't always like this.
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加拿大不是一直都是這樣的。
03:45
Until the mid-1960s, Canada followed
an explicitly racist immigration policy.
an explicitly racist immigration policy.
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直到20世紀60年代中期，加拿大都奉行
帶有明確種族色彩的移民政策。
帶有明確種族色彩的移民政策。
03:52
They called it "White Canada,"
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他們把這個政策稱作「白色加拿大」，
03:54
and as you can see, they were not
just talking about the snow.
just talking about the snow.
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正如你們所見，
他們談的不只有白雪。
他們談的不只有白雪。
03:59
So how did that Canada
become today's Canada?
become today's Canada?
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那麼過去的加拿大
是如何成為現在的加拿大？
是如何成為現在的加拿大？
04:05
Well, despite what my mom
in Ontario will tell you,
in Ontario will tell you,
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儘管我住在安大略省的
母親告訴你，
母親告訴你，
04:07
the answer had nothing to do with virtue.
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問題的答案和美德無關。
04:09
Canadians are not inherently
better than anyone else.
better than anyone else.
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加拿大人不是天生就比其他人善良。
04:13
The real explanation involves the man
who became Canada's leader in 1968,
who became Canada's leader in 1968,
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真正的答案與在1968年成為
加拿大領導人的那個人有關。
加拿大領導人的那個人有關。
04:17
Pierre Trudeau, who is also
the father of the current prime minister.
the father of the current prime minister.
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皮埃爾·特魯多，他也是現任
加拿大總理的父親。
加拿大總理的父親。
04:21
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
04:25
The thing to know about that first Trudeau
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關於特魯多，首先我們要知道
04:27
is that he was very different
from Canada's previous leaders.
from Canada's previous leaders.
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他不同於以往的加拿大領導人。
04:29
He was a French speaker in a country
long-dominated by its English elite.
long-dominated by its English elite.
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他在英文精英長期統治的國家裡，
說的是法語。
說的是法語。
04:34
He was an intellectual.
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他是知識分子，
04:36
He was even kind of groovy.
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他甚至有點時髦，
04:38
I mean, seriously, the guy did yoga.
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說真的，這傢伙有做瑜伽。
04:41
He hung out with the Beatles.
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他也跟披頭四一起瞎混。
04:42
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
04:44
And like all hipsters,
he could be infuriating at times.
he could be infuriating at times.
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就像所有追求時尚的人一樣，
他有時看起來也很另人討厭。
他有時看起來也很另人討厭。
04:48
But he nevertheless pulled off
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但是他還是完成了
04:50
one of the most progressive
transformations any country has ever seen.
transformations any country has ever seen.
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其它國家從未見過的躍進與轉變。
04:56
His formula, I've learned,
involved two parts.
involved two parts.
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他成功的模式，就我知道，
包括了兩個部分。
包括了兩個部分。
04:58
First, Canada threw out
its old race-based immigration rules,
its old race-based immigration rules,
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第一，加拿大廢除了過去
以種族為標準的老移民規則，
以種族為標準的老移民規則，
05:02
and it replaced them
with new color-blind ones
with new color-blind ones
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取而代之的是新的
無種族歧視的規則，
無種族歧視的規則，
05:05
that emphasized education,
experience and language skills instead.
experience and language skills instead.
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這些規則注重教育、
工作經驗和語言技能。
工作經驗和語言技能。
05:10
And what that did
was greatly increase the odds
was greatly increase the odds
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這些規則顯著增加了
05:13
that newcomers would
contribute to the economy.
contribute to the economy.
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新移民者為國家經濟
做出貢獻的機率。
做出貢獻的機率。
05:16
Then part two, Trudeau
created the world's first policy
created the world's first policy
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第二，特魯多制定了
世界上第一個
世界上第一個
05:20
of official multiculturalism
to promote integration
to promote integration
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提倡多元文化
相互融合的官方政策
相互融合的官方政策
05:24
and the idea that diversity
was the key to Canada's identity.
was the key to Canada's identity.
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並提出「多元文化」對加拿大
「國家認同」的重要概念。
「國家認同」的重要概念。
05:29
Now, in the years that followed,
Ottawa kept pushing this message,
Ottawa kept pushing this message,
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現在，在接下來的數年中，
渥太華將繼續提倡這個概念，
渥太華將繼續提倡這個概念，
05:33
but at the same time, ordinary Canadians
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但是同時，普通的加拿大市民
05:35
soon started to see the economic,
the material benefits of multiculturalism
the material benefits of multiculturalism
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很快就會見證到他們身邊
由多元文化所帶來的
由多元文化所帶來的
經濟與實質效益。
05:40
all around them.
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05:41
And these two influences soon combined
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這兩種影響很快會結合起來
05:44
to create the passionately
open-minded Canada of today.
open-minded Canada of today.
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創造今日充滿激情、
心智開放的加拿大。
心智開放的加拿大。
05:49
Let's now turn to another country
and an even tougher problem,
and an even tougher problem,
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現在讓我們看看另一個國家
和另一個更嚴重的問題，
和另一個更嚴重的問題，
05:53
Islamic extremism.
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伊斯蘭恐怖主義。
05:55
In 1998, the people of Indonesia
took to the streets
took to the streets
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1988年，印尼人民上街抗議，
05:58
and overthrew
their longtime dictator, Suharto.
their longtime dictator, Suharto.
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推翻了長期統治的獨裁者，蘇哈托。
06:02
It was an amazing moment,
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令人相當驚豔的時刻，
06:04
but it was also a scary one.
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但也是可怕的時刻。
06:06
With 250 million people,
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印尼擁有2億5千萬人口，
06:08
Indonesia is the largest
Muslim-majority country on Earth.
Muslim-majority country on Earth.
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是世界上最大
以穆斯林信徒為主導的國家。
以穆斯林信徒為主導的國家。
06:12
It's also hot, huge and unruly,
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印尼也很熱，
面積很大，難以管治，
面積很大，難以管治，
06:15
made up of 17,000 islands,
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它由1萬7千個島嶼組成，
06:17
where people speak
close to a thousand languages.
close to a thousand languages.
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人們使用將近1千種語言。
06:20
Now, Suharto had been a dictator,
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蘇哈托是位獨裁者，
06:23
and a nasty one.
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一位兇惡的獨裁者。
06:24
But he'd also been
a pretty effective tyrant,
a pretty effective tyrant,
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但是他也是一位
做事相當有效率的暴君，
做事相當有效率的暴君，
06:27
and he'd always been careful
to keep religion out of politics.
to keep religion out of politics.
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他一直很小心地讓
宗教遠離政治。
宗教遠離政治。
06:31
So experts feared that without
him keeping a lid on things,
him keeping a lid on things,
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所以專家們也害怕，
如果沒有他在控制局面，
如果沒有他在控制局面，
06:34
the country would explode,
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這個國家會發生動亂，
06:36
or religious extremists would take over
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或是極端的宗教主義者
會掌控政權，
會掌控政權，
06:38
and turn Indonesia
into a tropical version of Iran.
into a tropical version of Iran.
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然後把印尼變成
熱帶版的伊朗。
熱帶版的伊朗。
06:43
And that's just what seemed
to happen at first.
to happen at first.
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而這些擔憂，一開始
真的發生在印尼了。
真的發生在印尼了。
06:46
In the country's
first free elections, in 1999,
first free elections, in 1999,
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1999年他們舉辦了
第一次的自由選舉，
第一次的自由選舉，
06:49
Islamist parties scored
36 percent of the vote,
36 percent of the vote,
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伊斯蘭黨派獲得了
36%的選票，
36%的選票，
06:52
and the islands burned
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然後島嶼戰火開始不斷，
06:54
as riots and terror attacks
killed thousands.
killed thousands.
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成千上萬人因戰亂
和恐怖攻擊而喪生。
和恐怖攻擊而喪生。
06:58
Since then, however,
Indonesia has taken a surprising turn.
Indonesia has taken a surprising turn.
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然而，從那之後，印尼
發生了重大的轉變。
發生了重大的轉變。
07:03
While ordinary folks have grown
more pious on a personal level --
more pious on a personal level --
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雖然一般民眾在個人心理層面
變得更加虔誠——
變得更加虔誠——
07:07
I saw a lot more headscarves
on a recent visit
on a recent visit
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我在近期的一次旅行中，
見到戴頭巾的人
見到戴頭巾的人
07:09
than I would have a decade ago --
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比十年前見到的更多——
07:11
the country's politics
have moved in the opposite direction.
have moved in the opposite direction.
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但這個國家的政治方向
卻是往另一個方向走。
卻是往另一個方向走。
07:15
Indonesia is now
a pretty decent democracy.
a pretty decent democracy.
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印尼現在相當民主。
07:20
And yet, its Islamist parties
have steadily lost support,
have steadily lost support,
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而伊斯蘭政黨
卻漸漸地在失去民心，
卻漸漸地在失去民心，
07:23
from a high of about 38 percent in 2004
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從2004年大概38%的高度支持
07:26
down to 25 percent in 2014.
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降到2014年25%的支持度。
07:30
As for terrorism, it's now extremely rare.
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至於恐怖主義，現在更是少見。
07:34
And while a few Indonesians
have recently joined ISIS,
have recently joined ISIS,
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儘管有一些印尼人
最近加入了伊斯蘭國，
最近加入了伊斯蘭國，
07:37
their number is tiny,
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但數量很少，
07:39
far fewer in per capita terms
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以人均比例來看的話，
07:42
than the number of Belgians.
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遠少於比利時。
07:46
Try to think of one other
Muslim-majority country
Muslim-majority country
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試想其它以穆斯林為主導的國家，
07:48
that can say all those same things.
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他們同樣是相對少的。
07:51
In 2014, I went to Indonesia
to ask its current president,
to ask its current president,
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在2014年，我去印尼訪問了現任總統，
07:54
a soft-spoken technocrat
named Joko Widodo,
named Joko Widodo,
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一位叫佐科·維多多的
聲音柔和的技術專家政治主義者，
聲音柔和的技術專家政治主義者，
07:57
"Why is Indonesia thriving when
so many other Muslim states are dying?"
so many other Muslim states are dying?"
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我問他，「為什麼當許多其它的穆斯林國家
瀕臨滅亡的時候，印尼卻蒸蒸日上呢？」
瀕臨滅亡的時候，印尼卻蒸蒸日上呢？」
08:03
"Well, what we realized," he told me,
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他告訴我：「嗯，我們了解到
08:04
"is that to deal with extremism,
we needed to deal with inequality first."
we needed to deal with inequality first."
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如果要解決極端主義，
我們得先解決不平等。」
我們得先解決不平等。」
08:09
See, Indonesia's religious parties,
like similar parties elsewhere,
like similar parties elsewhere,
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瞧，印尼的宗教政黨，
就像其它類似的政黨一樣，
就像其它類似的政黨一樣，
08:13
had tended to focus on things like
reducing poverty and cutting corruption.
reducing poverty and cutting corruption.
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都是傾向著重在解決貧困
和貪腐之類的問題。
和貪腐之類的問題。
08:18
So that's what Joko
and his predecessors did too,
and his predecessors did too,
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這都是維多多和前幾任
領導人做的事情，
領導人做的事情，
08:20
thereby stealing the Islamists' thunder.
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因此伊斯蘭教就沒有發揮的空間。
08:23
They also cracked down hard on terrorism,
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他們也全力打擊恐怖主義，
08:26
but Indonesia's democrats
have learned a key lesson
have learned a key lesson
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但是印尼的民主人士
從過去黑暗的專制年代中
從過去黑暗的專制年代中
08:28
from the dark years of dictatorship,
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學到了寶貴的經驗，
08:30
namely that repression
only creates more extremism.
only creates more extremism.
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那就是打壓只會
帶來更多的極端主義。
帶來更多的極端主義。
08:36
So they waged their war
with extraordinary delicacy.
with extraordinary delicacy.
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所以他們很小心地
在處理這件事。
在處理這件事。
08:40
They used the police instead of the army.
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他們動用警察來維安
而不是用軍隊。
而不是用軍隊。
08:42
They only detained suspects
if they had enough evidence.
if they had enough evidence.
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他們只有在足夠的證據下
才會抓捕嫌疑人。
才會抓捕嫌疑人。
08:45
They held public trials.
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他們會舉行公開的審問。
08:46
They even sent
liberal imams into the jails
liberal imams into the jails
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他們甚至讓伊斯蘭教長
進入監獄
進入監獄
08:49
to persuade the jihadists
that terror is un-Islamic.
that terror is un-Islamic.
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去勸說伊斯蘭聖戰士，
恐怖主義是違背伊斯蘭主義的。
恐怖主義是違背伊斯蘭主義的。
08:52
And all of this paid off
in spectacular fashion,
in spectacular fashion,
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所有的這些措施
得到了驚人的回報，
得到了驚人的回報，
08:55
creating the kind of country
that was unimaginable 20 years ago.
that was unimaginable 20 years ago.
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創造了一個在20年前，
人們無法想像的國家。
人們無法想像的國家。
09:00
So at this point,
my optimism should, I hope,
my optimism should, I hope,
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所以，我會樂觀的原因
09:03
be starting to make a bit more sense.
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不是沒有道理的。
09:05
Neither immigration nor Islamic extremism
are impossible to deal with.
are impossible to deal with.
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移民和伊斯蘭極端主義的問題
再也不可能無法解決。
再也不可能無法解決。
09:10
Join me now on one last trip,
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現在和我一起進行
最後一段旅程，
最後一段旅程，
09:12
this time to Mexico.
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接下來是去墨西哥。
09:14
Now, of our three stories,
this one probably surprised me the most,
this one probably surprised me the most,
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這三個故事中，
墨西哥是最讓我驚訝的，
墨西哥是最讓我驚訝的，
09:18
since as you all know,
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因為大家都知道，
09:19
the country is still struggling
with so many problems.
with so many problems.
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這個國家仍然有
許多問題沒有解決。
許多問題沒有解決。
09:22
And yet, a few years ago,
Mexico did something
Mexico did something
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但是，幾年前，墨西哥做了一些
09:25
that many other countries
from France to India to the United States
from France to India to the United States
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許多國家，包括法國、印度和美國
09:30
can still only dream of.
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做不到的事情。
09:32
It shattered the political paralysis
that had gripped it for years.
that had gripped it for years.
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墨西哥打破了困擾它
多年的政治僵局。
多年的政治僵局。
09:37
To understand how,
we need to rewind to the year 2000,
we need to rewind to the year 2000,
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為了了解他們是怎麼做到的，
我們需要回到2000年，
我們需要回到2000年，
09:40
when Mexico finally became a democracy.
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當時墨西哥終於成為了
一個民主國家。
一個民主國家。
09:42
Rather than use their new freedoms
to fight for reform,
to fight for reform,
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墨西哥政治家沒利用
剛得到的自由來推動改革。
剛得到的自由來推動改革。
09:47
Mexico's politicians used them
to fight one another.
to fight one another.
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而是利用它們在做鬥爭，
09:50
Congress deadlocked,
and the country's problems --
and the country's problems --
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國會陷入僵局，
而且這個國家面臨的問題——
而且這個國家面臨的問題——
09:53
drugs, poverty, crime, corruption --
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毒品、貧困、犯罪、貪腐——
09:56
spun out of control.
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完全失控。
09:58
Things got so bad that in 2008,
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事態變得非常惡劣
以至於在2008年
以至於在2008年
10:00
the Pentagon warned
that Mexico risked collapse.
that Mexico risked collapse.
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美國國防部發出警告說，
墨西哥政府有垮台的危機。
墨西哥政府有垮台的危機。
10:04
Then in 2012, this guy
named Enrique Peña Nieto
named Enrique Peña Nieto
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然後在2012年，
這個叫恩里克·潘尼亞·尼托的人
這個叫恩里克·潘尼亞·尼托的人
10:09
somehow got himself elected president.
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透過某種方式當上了總統。
10:11
Now, this Peña hardly inspired
much confidence at first.
much confidence at first.
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一開始，潘尼亞幾乎沒有
激勵到人們的信心。
激勵到人們的信心。
10:16
Sure, he was handsome,
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沒錯，他很帥氣，
10:18
but he came from Mexico's
corrupt old ruling party, the PRI,
corrupt old ruling party, the PRI,
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但是他來自墨西哥腐敗的
老執政黨，制度革命黨，
老執政黨，制度革命黨，
10:22
and he was a notorious womanizer.
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而且他是一位名聲不太好的花心男。
10:26
In fact, he seemed
like such a pretty boy lightweight
like such a pretty boy lightweight
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事實上，他笑起來像
個天真無邪的小男孩，
個天真無邪的小男孩，
10:29
that women called him "bombón," sweetie,
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所以在競舉期間，
女人會叫他「小甜心」。
10:32
at campaign rallies.
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10:35
And yet this same bombón
soon surprised everyone
soon surprised everyone
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但是這個小甜心
很快就跌破了大家的眼鏡，
很快就跌破了大家的眼鏡，
10:39
by hammering out a truce
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因為他平息了這個國家
10:40
between the country's
three warring political parties.
three warring political parties.
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三個政黨的激烈鬥爭。
10:43
And over the next 18 months,
they together passed
they together passed
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而且在過去的18個月中，
他們一起通過了
他們一起通過了
10:45
an incredibly comprehensive
set of reforms.
set of reforms.
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一系列難以置信的
全面改革措施。
全面改革措施。
10:48
They busted open Mexico's
smothering monopolies.
smothering monopolies.
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他們開放了墨西哥
財團壟斷的事業。
財團壟斷的事業。
10:51
They liberalized
its rusting energy sector.
its rusting energy sector.
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他們把腐化的能源行業給自由化了。
10:55
They restructured
its failing schools, and much more.
its failing schools, and much more.
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他們重建了每況愈下的學校，
還有很多組織。
還有很多組織。
10:58
To appreciate the scale
of this accomplishment,
of this accomplishment,
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為了了解這些成就有多了不起，
11:00
try to imagine the US Congress
passing immigration reform,
passing immigration reform,
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試想一下，美國國會
正在修正的移民法案、
正在修正的移民法案、
11:04
campaign finance reform
and banking reform.
and banking reform.
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競選經費改革
和銀行系統改革法案。
和銀行系統改革法案。
11:07
Now, try to imagine Congress
doing it all at the same time.
doing it all at the same time.
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現在，試想一下，國會要在同一時間
將這些法案通過。
將這些法案通過。
11:11
That's what Mexico did.
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墨西哥辦到了。
11:14
Not long ago, I met with Peña
and asked how he managed it all.
and asked how he managed it all.
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不久前，我跟潘尼亞碰面，
我問他，他是如何做到的。
我問他，他是如何做到的。
11:18
The President flashed me
his famous twinkly smile --
his famous twinkly smile --
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總統給了我一個迷人的微笑——
11:21
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
11:24
and told me that the short answer
was "compromiso," compromise.
was "compromiso," compromise.
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然後告訴我一個
簡短的答案「妥協」。
簡短的答案「妥協」。
11:29
Of course, I pushed him for details,
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當然，我追問了更多的細節，
11:31
and the long answer
that came out was essentially
that came out was essentially
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最終得到的更長答案是
11:33
"compromise, compromise
and more compromise."
and more compromise."
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「妥協、妥協、再妥協」。
11:37
See, Peña knew that he needed
to build trust early,
to build trust early,
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潘尼亞知道他需要儘早建立信任，
11:40
so he started talking to the opposition
just days after his election.
just days after his election.
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所以他在選舉結束後
就開始和反對黨協商。
就開始和反對黨協商。
11:43
To ward off pressure
from special interests,
from special interests,
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為了避開特殊
利益群體的壓力，
利益群體的壓力，
11:46
he kept their meetings small and secret,
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他讓會議以小規模形式秘密舉行，
11:49
and many of the participants
later told me that it was this intimacy,
later told me that it was this intimacy,
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很多參與者之後告訴我
正是這種親密關係
正是這種親密關係
11:53
plus a lot of shared tequila,
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加上共享的龍舌蘭酒，
11:55
that helped build confidence.
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幫助建立了信心。
11:57
So did the fact that all decisions
had to be unanimous,
had to be unanimous,
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為了讓所有的決議一致通過，
12:00
and that Peña even agreed to pass
some of the other party's priorities
some of the other party's priorities
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潘尼亞甚至讓其它黨派的重大議題
比他自己黨派的議題先通過。
12:04
before his own.
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12:06
As Santiago Creel,
an opposition senator, put it to me,
an opposition senator, put it to me,
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正如聖地亞哥·克里爾，
一名反對黨的議員，對我說的，
一名反對黨的議員，對我說的，
12:09
"Look, I'm not saying that I'm special
or that anyone is special,
or that anyone is special,
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「你看，我不是說我很特別，
或者某個人很特別，
或者某個人很特別，
12:14
but that group, that was special."
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而是那個團隊，是那個團隊很特別。」
12:18
The proof?
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證據呢？
12:19
When Peña was sworn in, the pact held,
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潘尼亞就職之後，信守承諾，
12:22
and Mexico moved forward
for the first time in years.
for the first time in years.
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在經過多年內亂後，帶領墨西哥
第一次向前行。
第一次向前行。
12:27
Bueno.
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太棒了。
12:28
So now we've seen
how these three countries
how these three countries
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現在我們知道了
這三個國家是如何
這三個國家是如何
12:31
overcame three of their great challenges.
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克服它們遇到的
三個巨大挑戰。
三個巨大挑戰。
12:33
And that's very nice for them, right?
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這對它們來說很棒，
是不是？
是不是？
12:35
But what good does it do the rest of us?
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但，這對我們其他人
來說有什麼好處呢？
來說有什麼好處呢？
12:39
Well, in the course of studying these
and a bunch of other success stories,
and a bunch of other success stories,
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嗯，在研究這些國家和
一些其它國家成功經歷的過程中，
一些其它國家成功經歷的過程中，
12:42
like the way Rwanda pulled itself
back together after civil war
back together after civil war
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比如盧旺達如何在內戰結束後，
讓國家團結起來，
讓國家團結起來，
12:46
or Brazil has reduced inequality,
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或者是巴西如何縮小了貧富差距，
12:49
or South Korea has kept its economy
growing faster and for longer
growing faster and for longer
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或者是韓國如何在經濟上
比世界上其它國家
比世界上其它國家
12:53
than any other country on Earth,
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增長得更快、更久。
12:55
I've noticed a few common threads.
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我有注意到一些共同的現象。
12:57
Now, before describing them,
I need to add a caveat.
I need to add a caveat.
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在我說明這些現象之前，
我需要補充一個注意事項。
我需要補充一個注意事項。
13:00
I realize, of course,
that all countries are unique.
that all countries are unique.
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沒錯，我知道所有的國家
都有自己特殊的地方。
都有自己特殊的地方。
13:03
So you can't simply
take what worked in one,
take what worked in one,
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所以你不能單純地把
適用於某個國家的措施
適用於某個國家的措施
13:06
port it to another
and expect it to work there too.
and expect it to work there too.
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套用到另一個國家上，
然後期待這個措施會一樣有效。
然後期待這個措施會一樣有效。
13:08
Nor do specific solutions work forever.
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具體永久的解決方案
也一樣不可能。
也一樣不可能。
13:11
You've got to adapt them
as circumstances change.
as circumstances change.
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你需要根據環境，來調整這些方案。
13:14
That said, by stripping
these stories to their essence,
these stories to their essence,
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也就是說，藉由挖掘
這些故事的精髓，
這些故事的精髓，
13:18
you absolutely can distill
a few common tools for problem-solving
a few common tools for problem-solving
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你絕對可以提煉出
幾個解決問題的方法，
幾個解決問題的方法，
13:23
that will work in other countries
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來應用在其它國家、
13:26
and in boardrooms
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應用在董事會
13:27
and in all sorts of other contexts, too.
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應用在各種情況都行。
13:30
Number one, embrace the extreme.
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第一，擁抱極端。
13:33
In all the stories we've just looked at,
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我們觀察到在所有的故事中，
13:35
salvation came at a moment
of existential peril.
of existential peril.
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轉機總是在危機中產生的。
13:39
And that was no coincidence.
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那並不是巧合。
13:41
Take Canada: when Trudeau took office,
he faced two looming dangers.
he faced two looming dangers.
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以加拿大為例：當特魯多就職時，
他面臨了兩個危機。
他面臨了兩個危機。
13:46
First, though his vast,
underpopulated country
underpopulated country
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第一，雖然他那地廣、
人口稀少的國家
人口稀少的國家
13:49
badly needed more bodies,
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急需更多的人口，
13:50
its preferred source
for white workers, Europe,
for white workers, Europe,
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加拿大比較喜歡的
白色人種輸出地——歐洲，
白色人種輸出地——歐洲，
13:53
had just stopped exporting them
as it finally recovered from World War II.
as it finally recovered from World War II.
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才剛從二戰中復甦，
人口外移現象已經停止。
人口外移現象已經停止。
13:57
The other problem was
that Canada's long cold war
that Canada's long cold war
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另一個問題是，加拿大
14:00
between its French
and its English communities
and its English communities
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法語和英語社群之間的長期冷戰
14:03
had just become a hot one.
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當時是相當激烈的。
14:05
Quebec was threatening to secede,
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魁北克當時威脅
要退出加拿大，
要退出加拿大，
14:07
and Canadians were actually
killing other Canadians over politics.
killing other Canadians over politics.
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而且加拿大人實際上因
政治問題也在彼此殘殺。
政治問題也在彼此殘殺。
14:11
Now, countries face
crises all the time. Right?
crises all the time. Right?
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國家隨時都得面臨
這些危機，對吧？
這些危機，對吧？
14:14
That's nothing special.
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那沒什麼特別的。
14:16
But Trudeau's genius
was to realize that Canada's crisis
was to realize that Canada's crisis
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但是特魯多厲害的地方就是，
他明白加拿大如果要擺脫
他明白加拿大如果要擺脫
14:20
had swept away all the hurdles
that usually block reform.
that usually block reform.
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長久以來阻礙改革的危機。
14:24
Canada had to open up. It had no choice.
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加拿大必須打開國門，
因為它別無選擇。
因為它別無選擇。
14:29
And it had to rethink its identity.
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而且加拿大必須重新
定位它的國家認同。
定位它的國家認同。
14:30
Again, it had no choice.
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同樣，它也別無選擇。
14:32
And that gave Trudeau
a once-in-a-generation opportunity
a once-in-a-generation opportunity
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兒這給了特魯多一個
千載難逢的機會，
千載難逢的機會，
14:36
to break the old rules and write new ones.
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讓他可以打破陳規，制定新規。
14:39
And like all our other heroes,
he was smart enough to seize it.
he was smart enough to seize it.
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跟其他英雄一樣，
他相當聰明，所以抓住了這個機會。
他相當聰明，所以抓住了這個機會。
14:44
Number two, there's power
in promiscuous thinking.
in promiscuous thinking.
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第二，不設限的想法
有強大的力量。
有強大的力量。
14:48
Another striking similarity
among good problem-solvers
among good problem-solvers
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優秀的問題解決專家
都是實用主義者，
都是實用主義者，
14:51
is that they're all pragmatists.
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這是他們之間
另一個明顯的相似之處。
另一個明顯的相似之處。
14:53
They'll steal the best answers
from wherever they find them,
from wherever they find them,
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他們會從其他地方找到
並偷學最佳的解決方案。
並偷學最佳的解決方案。
14:56
and they don't let details
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而且他們不會讓細節
14:57
like party or ideology
or sentimentality get in their way.
or sentimentality get in their way.
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比如政黨、意識形態或是
多愁善感的情緒阻礙他們。
多愁善感的情緒阻礙他們。
15:03
As I mentioned earlier,
Indonesia's democrats were clever enough
Indonesia's democrats were clever enough
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正如我之前提到的，
印尼的民主人士相當聰明
印尼的民主人士相當聰明
15:06
to steal many of the Islamists'
best campaign promises for themselves.
best campaign promises for themselves.
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他們把伊斯蘭教徒最好的
競選承諾拿來自己用。
競選承諾拿來自己用。
15:11
They even invited some of the radicals
into their governing coalition.
into their governing coalition.
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他們甚至邀請一些激進人士
加入他們的管理團隊。
加入他們的管理團隊。
15:15
Now, that horrified
a lot of secular Indonesians.
a lot of secular Indonesians.
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那種作法嚇壞了很多
世俗的印尼人士。
世俗的印尼人士。
15:19
But by forcing the radicals
to actually help govern,
to actually help govern,
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但請激進人士來協助管理，
15:24
it quickly exposed the fact
that they weren't any good at the job,
that they weren't any good at the job,
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這些人不擅長管理的事實
很快就暴露了，
很快就暴露了，
15:28
and it got them mixed up
in all of the grubby compromises
in all of the grubby compromises
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而且這也讓他們參與了
政治的暗門協商
政治的暗門協商
15:31
and petty humiliations
that are part of everyday politics.
that are part of everyday politics.
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和每天無關緊要的政治謾罵。
15:34
And that hurt their image so badly
that they've never recovered.
that they've never recovered.
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他們的形象因此受損，
而且從未成功挽回。
而且從未成功挽回。
15:39
Number three,
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第三，
15:40
please all of the people some of the time.
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有時要取悅所有人。
15:44
I know I just mentioned how crises
can grant leaders extraordinary freedoms.
can grant leaders extraordinary freedoms.
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我知道我剛剛有提到，危機
賦予領導人超乎尋常的自由。
賦予領導人超乎尋常的自由。
15:49
And that's true, but problem-solving
often requires more than just boldness.
often requires more than just boldness.
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沒錯，但是解決問題需要的
不僅是只有大膽，
不僅是只有大膽，
15:53
It takes showing restraint, too,
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也需要表現出克制，
15:55
just when that's
the last thing you want to do.
the last thing you want to do.
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就像那是你當時
最想要做的一件事。
最想要做的一件事。
15:58
Take Trudeau: when he took office,
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以特魯多為例：
當他就職的時候，
當他就職的時候，
16:00
he could easily have put
his core constituency,
his core constituency,
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他完全可以優先
考慮他的核心選民，
考慮他的核心選民，
16:03
that is Canada's French community, first.
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也就是加拿大的法語社區，
16:05
He could have pleased
some of the people all of the time.
some of the people all of the time.
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他本來只需要取悅一部分人。
16:09
And Peña could have used his power
to keep attacking the opposition,
to keep attacking the opposition,
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同樣，佩尼亞本來也可以用
他的權利持續攻擊反對黨，
他的權利持續攻擊反對黨，
16:13
as was traditional in Mexico.
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就像墨西哥過去的傳統一樣。
16:15
Yet he chose to embrace
his enemies instead,
his enemies instead,
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但是他選擇接納他的敵人，
16:18
while forcing his own party to compromise.
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同時要求他自己的
政黨作出妥協。
政黨作出妥協。
16:20
And Trudeau pushed everyone
to stop thinking in tribal terms
to stop thinking in tribal terms
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特魯多要求每個人放下黨團意識，
16:25
and to see multiculturalism,
not language and not skin color,
not language and not skin color,
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放下語言與膚色的隔閡，
把多元文化視為他們
加拿大人典型的國家象徵。
加拿大人典型的國家象徵。
16:29
as what made them
quintessentially Canadian.
quintessentially Canadian.
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16:32
Nobody got everything they wanted,
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沒有人可以得到他們
想要的一切，
想要的一切，
16:35
but everyone got just enough
that the bargains held.
that the bargains held.
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但每個人都得到了
剛剛好的協商成果。
剛剛好的協商成果。
16:40
So at this point you may be thinking,
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在這一刻，你也許在想，
16:43
"OK, Tepperman,
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「好的，特普曼，
16:44
if the fixes really are out there
like you keep insisting,
like you keep insisting,
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如果這些方法
就如你所說的那麼好，
就如你所說的那麼好，
16:47
then why aren't more countries
already using them?"
already using them?"
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那麼為什麼沒有更多的
國家採用這些方法呢？」
國家採用這些方法呢？」
16:50
It's not like they require
special powers to pull off.
special powers to pull off.
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這些方法並不需要
特殊的能力才能取得。
特殊的能力才能取得。
16:53
I mean, none of the leaders
we've just looked at were superheroes.
we've just looked at were superheroes.
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我的意思是，我們剛才提到的
那些領導人也不是超級英雄，
那些領導人也不是超級英雄，
16:56
They didn't accomplish
anything on their own,
anything on their own,
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他們無法獨自完成事情，
16:59
and they all had plenty of flaws.
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而且他們都有很多缺陷。
17:01
Take Indonesia's
first democratic president,
first democratic president,
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以印尼第一個民主總統，
17:03
Abdurrahman Wahid.
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阿卜杜拉赫曼·瓦希德，為例。
17:05
This man was so powerfully uncharismatic
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這個人超瞎，
17:08
that he once fell asleep
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他曾經
在自己的演講中睡著了。
17:10
in the middle of his own speech.
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17:12
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
17:14
True story.
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這是真的。
17:19
So what this tells us
is that the real obstacle is not ability,
is that the real obstacle is not ability,
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這告訴我們，
真正的阻礙不是能力，
真正的阻礙不是能力，
17:23
and it's not circumstances.
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也不是環境。
17:25
It's something much simpler.
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而是更簡單的事情。
17:27
Making big changes
involves taking big risks,
involves taking big risks,
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做巨大的改變
需要承擔高風險，
需要承擔高風險，
17:31
and taking big risks is scary.
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而承擔高風險是令人害怕的。
17:34
Overcoming that fear requires guts,
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克服那種恐懼需要勇氣，
17:37
and as you all know,
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正如各位所知，
17:39
gutsy politicians are painfully rare.
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有勇氣的政治家特別少。
17:43
But that doesn't mean we voters
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但那並不是代表我們選民
17:45
can't demand courage
from our political leaders.
from our political leaders.
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不能要求我們的
政治領袖變得勇敢。
政治領袖變得勇敢。
17:48
I mean, that's why we put them
in office in the first place.
in office in the first place.
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我的意思是，那就是我們當初
選他們出來的原因，
選他們出來的原因，
17:51
And given the state of the world today,
there's really no other option.
there's really no other option.
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因為考量到目前世界的處境，
我們真的別無選擇。
我們真的別無選擇。
17:55
The answers are out there,
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解決問題的方法是存在的，
17:58
but now it's up to us
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但是現在需要由我們
18:01
to elect more women and men
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選出足夠勇敢的女性和男性
18:03
brave enough to find them,
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來找出那些解決方案，
18:06
to steal them
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偷學那些方法，
18:07
and to make them work.
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然後讓那些方法奏效。
18:09
Thank you.
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謝謝。
18:10
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Jonathan Tepperman - Global affairs thinkerJonathan Tepperman writes on the world's most pervasive and seemingly intractable challenges.
Why you should listen
Jonathan Tepperman is the managing editor of Foreign Affairs, the bimonthly journal published by the Council on Foreign Relations.
Tepperman started his career in international affairs as a speechwriter at the UN in Geneva, and he has written for publications including the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, The Atlantic and Newsweek. He has interviewed numerous world leaders including Syria's Bashar al-Assad, Japan’s Shinzo Abe, Brazil's Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Mexico's Enrique Peña Nieto, Indonesia's Joko Widodo and Rwanda’s Paul Kagame.
Tepperman's new book The Fix: How Nations Survive and Thrive in a World in Decline explores ten of the world's more pervasive and seemingly intractable challenges (such as economic stagnation, political gridlock, corruption and terrorism) and shows that, contrary to general consensus, each has a solution, one that has already been implemented somewhere in the world.
Jonathan Tepperman | Speaker | TED.com