TEDSummit
Jonathan Tepperman: The risky politics of progress
乔纳森·特普曼: 在危机中前行的政治
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全球性问题如恐怖主义、不平等和政治失能等都不容易解決，但并不代表我们要停止尝试。事实上，记者乔纳森·特普曼建议，我匀们也许可以从更冒险的角度去思考。他周游世界请教教各地的领导人，问他们是如何克服难题的—— 并且发现了出人意料的希望故事，而他从这些故事中提取出了三个解決问题的工具。
Jonathan Tepperman - Global affairs thinker
Jonathan Tepperman writes on the world's most pervasive and seemingly intractable challenges. Full bio
Jonathan Tepperman writes on the world's most pervasive and seemingly intractable challenges. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
The conventional wisdom
about our world today
about our world today
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关于当今世界的传统观点认为：
00:15
is that this is a time
of terrible decline.
of terrible decline.
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这是一个急剧衰退的时代
00:19
And that's not surprising,
given the bad news all around us,
given the bad news all around us,
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而这也并不令人奇怪，考虑到我们身边无处不在的坏消息
00:23
from ISIS to inequality,
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从伊斯兰国到不平等
00:25
political dysfunction, climate change,
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政治机能失调、气候变化
00:28
Brexit, and on and on.
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英国脱欧等等等等
00:31
But here's the thing,
and this may sound a little weird.
and this may sound a little weird.
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但我是这么想的，而我的想法可能听起来有些奇怪
00:35
I actually don't buy
this gloomy narrative,
this gloomy narrative,
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我对那些沮丧的观点并不买帐
00:38
and I don't think you should either.
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并且我希望你们也一样
00:40
Look, it's not that
I don't see the problems.
I don't see the problems.
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并不是说我没有看到那些问题
00:43
I read the same headlines that you do.
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我也跟你们看一样的头条
00:46
What I dispute is the conclusion
that so many people draw from them,
that so many people draw from them,
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我所质疑的是很多人从这些头条中得出的结论
00:49
namely that we're all screwed
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即我们把一切都搞砸了
00:51
because the problems are unsolvable
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因为这些问题都无解
00:54
and our governments are useless.
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而我们的政府又没有用
00:57
Now, why do I say this?
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那么我为什么要说些呢？
00:58
It's not like I'm particularly
optimistic by nature.
optimistic by nature.
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并不是说我生性特别的乐观
01:02
But something about the media's
constant doom-mongering
constant doom-mongering
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而是媒体的那种不断地执拗于问题
01:06
with its fixation on problems
and not on answers
and not on answers
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而不是解决之道的悲观论调
01:09
has always really bugged me.
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一直困扰着我
01:11
So a few years ago I decided,
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因此几年前我决定
01:14
well, I'm a journalist,
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嗯，既然我是一名记者
01:16
I should see if I can do any better
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那么我应该看看是否可以通过
01:18
by going around the world
and actually asking folks
and actually asking folks
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周游世界并问问各地的人们
01:21
if and how they've tackled
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他们是否并且是如何解决他们所面临的大的经济
01:22
their big economic
and political challenges.
and political challenges.
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和政治挑战的来做得更好
01:26
And what I found astonished me.
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而我的发现震惊了我
01:29
It turns out that there are remarkable
signs of progress out there,
signs of progress out there,
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原来已经有了很多显著的进步的迹象
01:33
often in the most unexpected places,
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并且经常是在那些出人意料的地方
01:36
and they've convinced me
that our great global challenges
that our great global challenges
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而这也使我确信我们面临的那些重大全球挑战
01:40
may not be so unsolvable after all.
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也许并不是那么的完全无解
01:43
Not only are there theoretical fixes;
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这里不仅仅有理论上的修复
01:45
those fixes have been tried.
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这些修复已经被投入试验
01:47
They've worked.
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并且是起作用的
01:49
And they offer hope for the rest of us.
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这也为我们其他人提供了希望
01:52
I'm going to show you what I mean
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接下来我将会展示我所要表达的意思
01:54
by telling you about
how three of the countries I visited --
how three of the countries I visited --
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通过讲述这三个我访问过的国家——
01:56
Canada, Indonesia and Mexico --
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加拿大、印度尼西亚和墨西哥——
01:58
overcame three supposedly
impossible problems.
impossible problems.
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是如何战胜那些理应无法解决的问题的
02:02
Their stories matter because they contain
tools the rest of us can use,
tools the rest of us can use,
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他们的故事很重要，因为中间包含着可以为我们所用的工具
02:06
and not just for those
particular problems,
particular problems,
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不仅仅是对于那些特定的问题
02:09
but for many others, too.
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而且对于多数的其它问题也一样
02:13
When most people think
about my homeland, Canada, today,
about my homeland, Canada, today,
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如今当大多数人想到我的祖国加拿大
02:17
if they think about Canada at all,
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如果他们真的想到加拿大的话
02:19
they think cold, they think boring,
they think polite.
they think polite.
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他们会想到寒冷、会想到无聊、会想到礼貌
02:22
They think we say "sorry" too much
in our funny accents.
in our funny accents.
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他们还会想到我们用滑稽的口音不停的说“不好意思”
02:26
And that's all true.
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而这些也都是真的
02:28
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
02:29
Sorry.
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不好意思
02:30
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
02:32
But Canada's also important
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但是加拿大也是很重要的
02:35
because of its triumph over a problem
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因为它战胜了一个目前
02:37
currently tearing
many other countries apart:
many other countries apart:
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正在撕裂其它许多国家的问题：
02:39
immigration.
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移民
02:41
Consider, Canada today is among
the world's most welcoming nations,
the world's most welcoming nations,
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想想看，当今的加拿大是世界上最热情好客的国家之一
02:45
even compared to other
immigration-friendly countries.
immigration-friendly countries.
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即使跟其它的移民友好型国家相比也毫不逊色
02:49
Its per capita immigration rate
is four times higher than France's,
is four times higher than France's,
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它的人均移民率比法国要高四倍
02:53
and its percentage
of foreign-born residents
of foreign-born residents
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而它的外国出生居民的比例
02:56
is double that of Sweden.
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是瑞典的两倍
02:58
Meanwhile, Canada admitted
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同时，加拿大去年接收的
02:59
10 times more Syrian refugees
in the last year
in the last year
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叙利亚难民
03:03
than did the United States.
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比美国要多十倍
03:05
(Applause)
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（掌声）
03:12
And now Canada is taking even more.
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并且现在加拿大正在接收更多的难民
03:14
And yet, if you ask Canadians
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如果你问加拿大人
03:16
what makes them proudest of their country,
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他们的国家最让他们感到骄傲的是什么
03:19
they rank "multiculturalism,"
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他们会将“多元文化”这个
03:22
a dirty word in most places,
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在很多地方都带有贬义的词语
03:24
second,
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排在第二位
03:25
ahead of hockey.
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领先于曲棍球
03:27
Hockey.
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曲棍球
03:28
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
03:31
In other words,
at a time when other countries
at a time when other countries
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换句话说，当其它国家都在
03:34
are now frantically building
new barriers to keep foreigners out,
new barriers to keep foreigners out,
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疯狂地建造新的障碍阻挡外国人时
03:37
Canadians want even more of them in.
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加拿大人却想要引进更多的外国人
03:41
Now, here's the really interesting part.
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然而真正有趣的是
03:43
Canada wasn't always like this.
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加拿大也不是一开始就这样的
03:45
Until the mid-1960s, Canada followed
an explicitly racist immigration policy.
an explicitly racist immigration policy.
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直到1960年代中期，加拿大都奉行着一个明显带有种族歧视的移民政策
03:52
They called it "White Canada,"
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他们叫称之为“白色加拿大”
03:54
and as you can see, they were not
just talking about the snow.
just talking about the snow.
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而如你所知，他们并不是在谈论冰雪
03:59
So how did that Canada
become today's Canada?
become today's Canada?
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那么彼时的加拿大是如何变成今日的加拿大的呢？
04:05
Well, despite what my mom
in Ontario will tell you,
in Ontario will tell you,
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嗯，不管我住在安大略省的妈妈会如何跟你说
04:07
the answer had nothing to do with virtue.
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但我想说的是这个答案跟美德没有半点关系
04:09
Canadians are not inherently
better than anyone else.
better than anyone else.
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加拿大人并不是天生的就比其他人心要好
04:13
The real explanation involves the man
who became Canada's leader in 1968,
who became Canada's leader in 1968,
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真正的答案涉及到那个在1968年成为加拿大领导人的男人
04:17
Pierre Trudeau, who is also
the father of the current prime minister.
the father of the current prime minister.
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皮埃尔·特鲁多，他也是加拿大现任总理的父亲
04:21
(Applause)
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（掌声）
04:25
The thing to know about that first Trudeau
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关于老特鲁多我们需要了解的是
04:27
is that he was very different
from Canada's previous leaders.
from Canada's previous leaders.
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他跟加拿大之前的领导都不一样
04:29
He was a French speaker in a country
long-dominated by its English elite.
long-dominated by its English elite.
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在一个长期被说英语的精英统治的国家，他却是说法语的
04:34
He was an intellectual.
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他是一个知识分子
04:36
He was even kind of groovy.
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他也是那种时髦的人
04:38
I mean, seriously, the guy did yoga.
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我是说真的，他还练瑜伽
04:41
He hung out with the Beatles.
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他跟披头士们一起玩
04:42
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
04:44
And like all hipsters,
he could be infuriating at times.
he could be infuriating at times.
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跟所有的潮人一样，他有时候也会愤怒
04:48
But he nevertheless pulled off
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然而他却开启了
04:50
one of the most progressive
transformations any country has ever seen.
transformations any country has ever seen.
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一个在任何国家都没见过的激进的转变
04:56
His formula, I've learned,
involved two parts.
involved two parts.
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他的公式，我了解到，包含两个方面
04:58
First, Canada threw out
its old race-based immigration rules,
its old race-based immigration rules,
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首先，加拿大抛弃原有的基于种族的移民法规
05:02
and it replaced them
with new color-blind ones
with new color-blind ones
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代之以新的无肤色歧视的法规
05:05
that emphasized education,
experience and language skills instead.
experience and language skills instead.
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转而强调教育、经验和语言技能
05:10
And what that did
was greatly increase the odds
was greatly increase the odds
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而这就极大的提高了
05:13
that newcomers would
contribute to the economy.
contribute to the economy.
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新移民对经济做出贡献的可能性
05:16
Then part two, Trudeau
created the world's first policy
created the world's first policy
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另一方面，特鲁多创造出了世界上
05:20
of official multiculturalism
to promote integration
to promote integration
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第一个官方的多元文化主义政策以促进融合
05:24
and the idea that diversity
was the key to Canada's identity.
was the key to Canada's identity.
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并且多样性是加拿大形象的关键部分
05:29
Now, in the years that followed,
Ottawa kept pushing this message,
Ottawa kept pushing this message,
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从那以后到现在，渥太华一直在传递这个信息
05:33
but at the same time, ordinary Canadians
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与此同时，普通的加拿大人
05:35
soon started to see the economic,
the material benefits of multiculturalism
the material benefits of multiculturalism
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很快开始见到多元文化主义带来的经济上和
05:40
all around them.
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物质上的利益无处不在
05:41
And these two influences soon combined
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而这两方面的影响很快结合在一起
05:44
to create the passionately
open-minded Canada of today.
open-minded Canada of today.
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创造出了今天这个非常开明的加拿大
05:49
Let's now turn to another country
and an even tougher problem,
and an even tougher problem,
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现在我们转向另一个国家和一个更困难的问题
05:53
Islamic extremism.
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伊斯兰极端主义
05:55
In 1998, the people of Indonesia
took to the streets
took to the streets
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1998年，印度尼西亚人民走上街头
05:58
and overthrew
their longtime dictator, Suharto.
their longtime dictator, Suharto.
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推翻了长期的独裁者苏哈托
06:02
It was an amazing moment,
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那是一个令人激动的时刻
06:04
but it was also a scary one.
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但也是一个可怕的时刻
06:06
With 250 million people,
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拥有2.5亿人口的印尼
06:08
Indonesia is the largest
Muslim-majority country on Earth.
Muslim-majority country on Earth.
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是地球上最大的以穆斯林为主的国家
06:12
It's also hot, huge and unruly,
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它还很热、很大并且难以管理
06:15
made up of 17,000 islands,
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由17000个岛屿组成
06:17
where people speak
close to a thousand languages.
close to a thousand languages.
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全国人民说着将近1000种不同的语言
06:20
Now, Suharto had been a dictator,
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苏哈托是一个独裁者
06:23
and a nasty one.
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并且是一个很令人厌恶的独裁者
06:24
But he'd also been
a pretty effective tyrant,
a pretty effective tyrant,
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但他也是一个很实在的暴君
06:27
and he'd always been careful
to keep religion out of politics.
to keep religion out of politics.
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他一直小心的不让宗教渗入到政治中来
06:31
So experts feared that without
him keeping a lid on things,
him keeping a lid on things,
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因此专家还担心如果没有他控制局面
06:34
the country would explode,
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这个国家有可能分崩离析
06:36
or religious extremists would take over
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或者宗教极端主义者可能掌管这个国家
06:38
and turn Indonesia
into a tropical version of Iran.
into a tropical version of Iran.
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并将印尼变成热带地区的伊朗
06:43
And that's just what seemed
to happen at first.
to happen at first.
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一开始事情似乎是朝着那个方向发展的
06:46
In the country's
first free elections, in 1999,
first free elections, in 1999,
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1999年，在这个国家举行的第一次自由选举中
06:49
Islamist parties scored
36 percent of the vote,
36 percent of the vote,
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伊斯兰政党得到了36%的选票
06:52
and the islands burned
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这些岛屿开始战火不断
06:54
as riots and terror attacks
killed thousands.
killed thousands.
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骚乱和恐怖袭击导致数以千计的民众死亡
06:58
Since then, however,
Indonesia has taken a surprising turn.
Indonesia has taken a surprising turn.
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然而，从那以后，印尼却发生了出人意料的转变
07:03
While ordinary folks have grown
more pious on a personal level --
more pious on a personal level --
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从个人层面上来说普通民众变得更加虔诚了——
07:07
I saw a lot more headscarves
on a recent visit
on a recent visit
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我最近一次访问见到的戴头巾的民众
07:09
than I would have a decade ago --
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要比十年前更多了——
07:11
the country's politics
have moved in the opposite direction.
have moved in the opposite direction.
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这个国家的政治却走向了一个相反的方向
07:15
Indonesia is now
a pretty decent democracy.
a pretty decent democracy.
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印尼现在是一个相当民主的国家
07:20
And yet, its Islamist parties
have steadily lost support,
have steadily lost support,
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而它的伊斯兰政党正在持续地失去支持
07:23
from a high of about 38 percent in 2004
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从2004年高达38%的支持率
07:26
down to 25 percent in 2014.
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降至2014年的25%
07:30
As for terrorism, it's now extremely rare.
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而恐怖主义现在也非常之少了
07:34
And while a few Indonesians
have recently joined ISIS,
have recently joined ISIS,
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虽然最近还是有些印尼人加入伊斯兰国
07:37
their number is tiny,
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但他们的数量是非常少的
07:39
far fewer in per capita terms
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按人均来计算
07:42
than the number of Belgians.
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比比利时要少得多
07:46
Try to think of one other
Muslim-majority country
Muslim-majority country
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想想看还有哪个以穆斯林为主的国家
07:48
that can say all those same things.
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能够做到这些
07:51
In 2014, I went to Indonesia
to ask its current president,
to ask its current president,
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2014年，我到印尼去采访了现任总统
07:54
a soft-spoken technocrat
named Joko Widodo,
named Joko Widodo,
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一个说话温柔的专家型官员，叫做佐科·维多多
07:57
"Why is Indonesia thriving when
so many other Muslim states are dying?"
so many other Muslim states are dying?"
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“为什么在其它众多穆斯林国家走向衰退时印尼却能保持繁荣？”
08:03
"Well, what we realized," he told me,
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“嗯，我们意识到，”他告诉我
08:04
"is that to deal with extremism,
we needed to deal with inequality first."
we needed to deal with inequality first."
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“要想打击恐怖主义，我们首先需要消除不平等。”
08:09
See, Indonesia's religious parties,
like similar parties elsewhere,
like similar parties elsewhere,
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瞧，印尼的宗教政党像其它类似的政党一样
08:13
had tended to focus on things like
reducing poverty and cutting corruption.
reducing poverty and cutting corruption.
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趋向于聚焦在减少贫困和腐败的问题上
08:18
So that's what Joko
and his predecessors did too,
and his predecessors did too,
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佐科和他的前任们做的另一件事
08:20
thereby stealing the Islamists' thunder.
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就是降低伊斯兰主义的影响
08:23
They also cracked down hard on terrorism,
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他们还强力打击了恐怖主义
08:26
but Indonesia's democrats
have learned a key lesson
have learned a key lesson
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但是印尼的民主人士从独裁统治的
08:28
from the dark years of dictatorship,
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黑暗岁月里也学到了一个很重要的教训
08:30
namely that repression
only creates more extremism.
only creates more extremism.
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即压制只会造就更多的恐怖主义
08:36
So they waged their war
with extraordinary delicacy.
with extraordinary delicacy.
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因此他们非常精密地发动了他们的战争
08:40
They used the police instead of the army.
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他们使用警察而不是军队
08:42
They only detained suspects
if they had enough evidence.
if they had enough evidence.
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他们只在有足够证据的情况下才拘留嫌犯
08:45
They held public trials.
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他们实行公开审判
08:46
They even sent
liberal imams into the jails
liberal imams into the jails
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他们甚至还派开明的阿訇去监狱
08:49
to persuade the jihadists
that terror is un-Islamic.
that terror is un-Islamic.
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劝说圣战主义者，告诉他们恐怖活动是反伊斯兰的
08:52
And all of this paid off
in spectacular fashion,
in spectacular fashion,
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所有的这些获得了巨大的回报
08:55
creating the kind of country
that was unimaginable 20 years ago.
that was unimaginable 20 years ago.
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创造了一个20年前无法想象得到的国家
09:00
So at this point,
my optimism should, I hope,
my optimism should, I hope,
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因此在这一点上，我的乐观应该，我希望
09:03
be starting to make a bit more sense.
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开始变得更加有意义了
09:05
Neither immigration nor Islamic extremism
are impossible to deal with.
are impossible to deal with.
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移民问题和伊斯兰恐怖主义都不是不可能解决的
09:10
Join me now on one last trip,
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现在跟我来看看最后的这个例子
09:12
this time to Mexico.
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这一次我们转向墨西哥
09:14
Now, of our three stories,
this one probably surprised me the most,
this one probably surprised me the most,
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在所有三个故事中，这一个可能是最令我惊讶的
09:18
since as you all know,
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正如你们所知
09:19
the country is still struggling
with so many problems.
with so many problems.
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这个国家仍然在跟很多问题做斗争
09:22
And yet, a few years ago,
Mexico did something
Mexico did something
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然而，几年前墨西哥做了一件
09:25
that many other countries
from France to India to the United States
from France to India to the United States
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很多其它国家，从法国、印度到美国
09:30
can still only dream of.
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现在仍然只能梦想的事情
09:32
It shattered the political paralysis
that had gripped it for years.
that had gripped it for years.
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那是它打破了困扰了好多年的政治僵局
09:37
To understand how,
we need to rewind to the year 2000,
we need to rewind to the year 2000,
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要想理解的它是怎样做到的，我们需要倒回到2000年
09:40
when Mexico finally became a democracy.
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那时墨西哥终于成为了一个民主国家
09:42
Rather than use their new freedoms
to fight for reform,
to fight for reform,
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墨西哥的政客们不是利用新获得的自由去推动改革
09:47
Mexico's politicians used them
to fight one another.
to fight one another.
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而是利用它们去互相攻击
09:50
Congress deadlocked,
and the country's problems --
and the country's problems --
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国会陷入僵持，而这个国家面临的问题——
09:53
drugs, poverty, crime, corruption --
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毒品、贫困、犯罪、腐败——
09:56
spun out of control.
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都失去了控制
09:58
Things got so bad that in 2008,
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到了2008年，情况已经变得非常糟糕了
10:00
the Pentagon warned
that Mexico risked collapse.
that Mexico risked collapse.
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五角大楼警告说墨西哥有崩溃的风险
10:04
Then in 2012, this guy
named Enrique Peña Nieto
named Enrique Peña Nieto
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然后到了2012的年，这个叫做恩里克·培尼亚·涅托的家伙
10:09
somehow got himself elected president.
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不知怎么的选上了总统
10:11
Now, this Peña hardly inspired
much confidence at first.
much confidence at first.
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这个培尼亚一开始就艰难地激发了人们的自信心
10:16
Sure, he was handsome,
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当然，他很帅
10:18
but he came from Mexico's
corrupt old ruling party, the PRI,
corrupt old ruling party, the PRI,
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他来自墨西哥腐败的旧执政党，革命制度党
10:22
and he was a notorious womanizer.
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并且是一个臭名昭著的花花公子
10:26
In fact, he seemed
like such a pretty boy lightweight
like such a pretty boy lightweight
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事实上，他看起来完全像是一个无足轻重的小人物
10:29
that women called him "bombón," sweetie,
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在竞选集会上
10:32
at campaign rallies.
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妇女们叫他夹心巧克力，亲爱的
10:35
And yet this same bombón
soon surprised everyone
soon surprised everyone
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而就是这个夹心巧克力很快就
10:39
by hammering out a truce
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通过让这个国家三个互相争斗的政党
10:40
between the country's
three warring political parties.
three warring political parties.
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达成休战协议而令人刮目相看
10:43
And over the next 18 months,
they together passed
they together passed
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接下来的18个月，他们一起通过了
10:45
an incredibly comprehensive
set of reforms.
set of reforms.
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一系列令人难以置信的全面的改革方案
10:48
They busted open Mexico's
smothering monopolies.
smothering monopolies.
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他们破除了墨西哥令人窒息的垄断
10:51
They liberalized
its rusting energy sector.
its rusting energy sector.
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他们放宽了对已经生锈的能源领域的限制
10:55
They restructured
its failing schools, and much more.
its failing schools, and much more.
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他们重整了那些不合格的学校等等
10:58
To appreciate the scale
of this accomplishment,
of this accomplishment,
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要想领会这些成就的份量
11:00
try to imagine the US Congress
passing immigration reform,
passing immigration reform,
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那么试着去想像一下美国国会通过移民改革方案
11:04
campaign finance reform
and banking reform.
and banking reform.
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竞选经费改革以及银行改革方案
11:07
Now, try to imagine Congress
doing it all at the same time.
doing it all at the same time.
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现在，再想像一下国会同时讨论并通过这三个方案
11:11
That's what Mexico did.
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这就是墨西哥所做到的
11:14
Not long ago, I met with Peña
and asked how he managed it all.
and asked how he managed it all.
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不久前，我见到了培尼亚并问他是如何做到的
11:18
The President flashed me
his famous twinkly smile --
his famous twinkly smile --
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这位总统用他那有名的微笑回应了我
11:21
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
11:24
and told me that the short answer
was "compromiso," compromise.
was "compromiso," compromise.
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并且跟我说简单地回答呢，是妥协
11:29
Of course, I pushed him for details,
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当然，我追问了细节
11:31
and the long answer
that came out was essentially
that came out was essentially
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然后长一点的答案基本上就是
11:33
"compromise, compromise
and more compromise."
and more compromise."
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妥协、妥协、更多的妥协
11:37
See, Peña knew that he needed
to build trust early,
to build trust early,
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培尼亚知道他需要尽早建立起信任
11:40
so he started talking to the opposition
just days after his election.
just days after his election.
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所以当选几天后他就开始与反对派对话
11:43
To ward off pressure
from special interests,
from special interests,
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为了避免来自特殊利益集团的压力
11:46
he kept their meetings small and secret,
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他们举行小型和秘密的会谈
11:49
and many of the participants
later told me that it was this intimacy,
later told me that it was this intimacy,
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许多参会者后来告诉我这些会谈显得很亲密
11:53
plus a lot of shared tequila,
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再加上大家共享了很多龙舌兰酒
11:55
that helped build confidence.
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使得大家都建立起了信心
11:57
So did the fact that all decisions
had to be unanimous,
had to be unanimous,
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事实上所有的决定都要达成一致意见
12:00
and that Peña even agreed to pass
some of the other party's priorities
some of the other party's priorities
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培亚尼甚至同意让一些其它政党想要优先
12:04
before his own.
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达成的议案先于自己的议案通过
12:06
As Santiago Creel,
an opposition senator, put it to me,
an opposition senator, put it to me,
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正如反对派议会圣地亚哥·克里尔所说
12:09
"Look, I'm not saying that I'm special
or that anyone is special,
or that anyone is special,
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“我不是说我很特别或者其他作何人很特别，
12:14
but that group, that was special."
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而是这个团队很特别。”
12:18
The proof?
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证据呢？
12:19
When Peña was sworn in, the pact held,
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当培尼亚宣誓就职时，协议也签订了
12:22
and Mexico moved forward
for the first time in years.
for the first time in years.
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而墨西哥也在这么多年来第一次朝前发展
12:27
Bueno.
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非常好
12:28
So now we've seen
how these three countries
how these three countries
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现在我们看过了这三个国家
12:31
overcame three of their great challenges.
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是如何克服他们面临的三个巨大挑战的
12:33
And that's very nice for them, right?
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很为他们感到高兴，是吗？
12:35
But what good does it do the rest of us?
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那么这对我们来说又有什么好处呢？
12:39
Well, in the course of studying these
and a bunch of other success stories,
and a bunch of other success stories,
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在研究这些故事以及其它成功的故事的过程中
12:42
like the way Rwanda pulled itself
back together after civil war
back together after civil war
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比如说卢旺达如何在内战后重新团结起来
12:46
or Brazil has reduced inequality,
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或者巴西是怎样减少不平等的
12:49
or South Korea has kept its economy
growing faster and for longer
growing faster and for longer
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又或者韩国如何保持经济长期高速地增长
12:53
than any other country on Earth,
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还有其它一些国家的故事
12:55
I've noticed a few common threads.
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我注意到了一些共同点
12:57
Now, before describing them,
I need to add a caveat.
I need to add a caveat.
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在我讲述它们之前，我想先说明一下
13:00
I realize, of course,
that all countries are unique.
that all countries are unique.
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我注意到，当然，每个国家都是独一无二的
13:03
So you can't simply
take what worked in one,
take what worked in one,
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所以你不能简单地把对某个国家有用的东西
13:06
port it to another
and expect it to work there too.
and expect it to work there too.
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放到另一个国家然后期待它也能产生效果
13:08
Nor do specific solutions work forever.
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没有哪个特定的方案是一直有效的
13:11
You've got to adapt them
as circumstances change.
as circumstances change.
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你得根据环境去调配它们
13:14
That said, by stripping
these stories to their essence,
these stories to their essence,
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也就是说，只要剥开故事的表象看到本质
13:18
you absolutely can distill
a few common tools for problem-solving
a few common tools for problem-solving
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你就能从中提取一些解决问题的通用工具
13:23
that will work in other countries
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并且可以使用在其它的国家
13:26
and in boardrooms
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使用在会议当中
13:27
and in all sorts of other contexts, too.
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以及其它的方方面面
13:30
Number one, embrace the extreme.
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首先，接受极端
13:33
In all the stories we've just looked at,
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在所有我们刚刚看到的故事中
13:35
salvation came at a moment
of existential peril.
of existential peril.
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拯救都发生在危机中的某一时刻
13:39
And that was no coincidence.
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这绝非巧合
13:41
Take Canada: when Trudeau took office,
he faced two looming dangers.
he faced two looming dangers.
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就加拿大而言，当特鲁多就任时，面临两大潜在的危险
13:46
First, though his vast,
underpopulated country
underpopulated country
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首先，尽管他这个地广人稀的国家
13:49
badly needed more bodies,
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非常需要更多的劳动力
13:50
its preferred source
for white workers, Europe,
for white workers, Europe,
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但它首选的白人劳动力来源地欧洲
13:53
had just stopped exporting them
as it finally recovered from World War II.
as it finally recovered from World War II.
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却随着自身从二战中恢复过来而停止了劳动力的出口
13:57
The other problem was
that Canada's long cold war
that Canada's long cold war
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另一个问题是加拿大国内的法语群体
14:00
between its French
and its English communities
and its English communities
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和英语群体之间的长期冷战
14:03
had just become a hot one.
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也变成了热战
14:05
Quebec was threatening to secede,
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魁北克威胁着要独立
14:07
and Canadians were actually
killing other Canadians over politics.
killing other Canadians over politics.
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并且加拿大人在政治上互相伤害
14:11
Now, countries face
crises all the time. Right?
crises all the time. Right?
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国家总是面临危机，对吧？
14:14
That's nothing special.
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这没什么特别的
14:16
But Trudeau's genius
was to realize that Canada's crisis
was to realize that Canada's crisis
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但是特鲁多的天才之处是意识到加拿大的危机
14:20
had swept away all the hurdles
that usually block reform.
that usually block reform.
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正好扫清了阻碍改革的所有障碍
14:24
Canada had to open up. It had no choice.
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加拿大需要开放，对此它别无选择
14:29
And it had to rethink its identity.
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并且它需要重新思考自己的国家形象
14:30
Again, it had no choice.
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而这也是别无选择的
14:32
And that gave Trudeau
a once-in-a-generation opportunity
a once-in-a-generation opportunity
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这就给了特鲁多一个千载难逢的机会
14:36
to break the old rules and write new ones.
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去打破旧规则并书写新规则
14:39
And like all our other heroes,
he was smart enough to seize it.
he was smart enough to seize it.
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像所有其他的英雄一样，他聪明地抓住了机会
14:44
Number two, there's power
in promiscuous thinking.
in promiscuous thinking.
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第二，胡思乱想的力量
14:48
Another striking similarity
among good problem-solvers
among good problem-solvers
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另一个好的问题解决者的显著相似点
14:51
is that they're all pragmatists.
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是他们都是实用主义者
14:53
They'll steal the best answers
from wherever they find them,
from wherever they find them,
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他们会窃取最好的答案，不管这答案来自哪里
14:56
and they don't let details
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并且他们不会让诸如政党
14:57
like party or ideology
or sentimentality get in their way.
or sentimentality get in their way.
291
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意识形态或情感之类的细节来挡道
15:03
As I mentioned earlier,
Indonesia's democrats were clever enough
Indonesia's democrats were clever enough
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正如我之前提到的，印尼的民主主义者非常聪明地
15:06
to steal many of the Islamists'
best campaign promises for themselves.
best campaign promises for themselves.
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窃取了很多伊斯兰主义的竞选承诺来为已所用
15:11
They even invited some of the radicals
into their governing coalition.
into their governing coalition.
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他们甚至邀请了一些激进派进入到执政联盟
15:15
Now, that horrified
a lot of secular Indonesians.
a lot of secular Indonesians.
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这一举动吓坏了很多世俗的印尼人
15:19
But by forcing the radicals
to actually help govern,
to actually help govern,
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但是通过迫使这些激进派去真正的帮助治理国家
15:24
it quickly exposed the fact
that they weren't any good at the job,
that they weren't any good at the job,
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迅速地暴露出他们根本不能胜任这些工作的事实
15:28
and it got them mixed up
in all of the grubby compromises
in all of the grubby compromises
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并且他们与那些肮脏的妥协混淆不清
15:31
and petty humiliations
that are part of everyday politics.
that are part of everyday politics.
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而卑微是日常政治生活的一部分
15:34
And that hurt their image so badly
that they've never recovered.
that they've never recovered.
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这些使得他们的形象遭受重创，直到现在都没翻过身来
15:39
Number three,
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第三
15:40
please all of the people some of the time.
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有时候需要取悦所有的人
15:44
I know I just mentioned how crises
can grant leaders extraordinary freedoms.
can grant leaders extraordinary freedoms.
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我知道我刚刚提到过危机能够给领导人提供非凡的自由
15:49
And that's true, but problem-solving
often requires more than just boldness.
often requires more than just boldness.
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那是事实，但是解决问题通常不仅仅需要勇敢
15:53
It takes showing restraint, too,
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当碰到你不愿意去做的事时
15:55
just when that's
the last thing you want to do.
the last thing you want to do.
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还要表现出克制
15:58
Take Trudeau: when he took office,
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以特鲁多为例：当他就任时
16:00
he could easily have put
his core constituency,
his core constituency,
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他可以轻易地把自己的核心支持者
16:03
that is Canada's French community, first.
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也就是加拿大的法语群体放在优先的位置
16:05
He could have pleased
some of the people all of the time.
some of the people all of the time.
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他可以一直取悦这一部分人
16:09
And Peña could have used his power
to keep attacking the opposition,
to keep attacking the opposition,
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而培尼亚也可以用他的权力去继续攻击反对派
16:13
as was traditional in Mexico.
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就像之前的墨西哥传统政坛一样
16:15
Yet he chose to embrace
his enemies instead,
his enemies instead,
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但是他选择了拥抱自己的敌人
16:18
while forcing his own party to compromise.
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同进迫使他所在的政党去妥协
16:20
And Trudeau pushed everyone
to stop thinking in tribal terms
to stop thinking in tribal terms
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特鲁多促使大家都不再去想部落
16:25
and to see multiculturalism,
not language and not skin color,
not language and not skin color,
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并且去考虑用多元文化主义，而不是语言和肤色
16:29
as what made them
quintessentially Canadian.
quintessentially Canadian.
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去作为典型加拿大人的标志
16:32
Nobody got everything they wanted,
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没有人得到了自己想要的一切
16:35
but everyone got just enough
that the bargains held.
that the bargains held.
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但每一个人通过讨价还价都得到了满足
16:40
So at this point you may be thinking,
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所以此时此刻你可能在想
16:43
"OK, Tepperman,
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“好吧，特普曼
16:44
if the fixes really are out there
like you keep insisting,
like you keep insisting,
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如果这些修复像你所坚持的那样真的存在
16:47
then why aren't more countries
already using them?"
already using them?"
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那么为什么没有更多的国家使用它们？”
16:50
It's not like they require
special powers to pull off.
special powers to pull off.
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不是说它们需要什么特别的力量去实现
16:53
I mean, none of the leaders
we've just looked at were superheroes.
we've just looked at were superheroes.
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我是说，我们刚才所说的几位领导人没有一个是超级英雄
16:56
They didn't accomplish
anything on their own,
anything on their own,
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他们个人并没有达成什么成就
16:59
and they all had plenty of flaws.
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他们都有一大堆的缺点
17:01
Take Indonesia's
first democratic president,
first democratic president,
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就说印尼的第一位民选总统
17:03
Abdurrahman Wahid.
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阿卜杜勒拉赫曼·瓦希德
17:05
This man was so powerfully uncharismatic
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这么一个魅力强大的人
17:08
that he once fell asleep
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有一次竟然
17:10
in the middle of his own speech.
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在自己的演讲中睡着了
17:12
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
17:14
True story.
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这是真事
17:19
So what this tells us
is that the real obstacle is not ability,
is that the real obstacle is not ability,
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这个故事告诉我们真正的障碍不是能力
17:23
and it's not circumstances.
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不是环境
17:25
It's something much simpler.
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而是一些更简单的东西
17:27
Making big changes
involves taking big risks,
involves taking big risks,
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要做大的改变就要承担大的风险
17:31
and taking big risks is scary.
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而承担大的风险是很可怕的
17:34
Overcoming that fear requires guts,
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克服那种恐惧需要勇气
17:37
and as you all know,
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而正如你所知
17:39
gutsy politicians are painfully rare.
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勇敢的政治家少之又少
17:43
But that doesn't mean we voters
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但那并不意味着我们这些选民
17:45
can't demand courage
from our political leaders.
from our political leaders.
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不能要求我们的政治领导人拿出勇气来
17:48
I mean, that's why we put them
in office in the first place.
in office in the first place.
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我的意思是，那正是当初我们选他们的原因
17:51
And given the state of the world today,
there's really no other option.
there's really no other option.
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考虑到当今世界的现状，我们真的没有其它的选择
17:55
The answers are out there,
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答案就在那
17:58
but now it's up to us
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现在就靠我们
18:01
to elect more women and men
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去选出更多有足够勇气的
18:03
brave enough to find them,
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女人和男人去找到它们
18:06
to steal them
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窃取它们
18:07
and to make them work.
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并使它们为我所用
18:09
Thank you.
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谢谢
18:10
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Jonathan Tepperman - Global affairs thinkerJonathan Tepperman writes on the world's most pervasive and seemingly intractable challenges.
Why you should listen
Jonathan Tepperman is the managing editor of Foreign Affairs, the bimonthly journal published by the Council on Foreign Relations.
Tepperman started his career in international affairs as a speechwriter at the UN in Geneva, and he has written for publications including the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, The Atlantic and Newsweek. He has interviewed numerous world leaders including Syria's Bashar al-Assad, Japan’s Shinzo Abe, Brazil's Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Mexico's Enrique Peña Nieto, Indonesia's Joko Widodo and Rwanda’s Paul Kagame.
Tepperman's new book The Fix: How Nations Survive and Thrive in a World in Decline explores ten of the world's more pervasive and seemingly intractable challenges (such as economic stagnation, political gridlock, corruption and terrorism) and shows that, contrary to general consensus, each has a solution, one that has already been implemented somewhere in the world.
Jonathan Tepperman | Speaker | TED.com