TED2010
Bill Gates: Innovating to zero!
Bil Gejts o energiji: Inovacijama do nule!
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5,598,307 views
Na TED2010, Bil Gejts otkriva svoju viziju budućnosti svetske energije, opisujući da su neophodna "čuda" da bi se izbegla planetarna katastrofa i objašnjavajući zašto podržava ekstremno drugačiji tip nuklearnog reaktora. Cilj koji je neophodno postići? Svođenje emisije ugljenika na nulu do 2050. godine.
Bill Gates - Philanthropist
A passionate techie and a shrewd businessman, Bill Gates changed the world while leading Microsoft to dizzying success. Now he's doing it again with his own style of philanthropy and passion for innovation. Full bio
A passionate techie and a shrewd businessman, Bill Gates changed the world while leading Microsoft to dizzying success. Now he's doing it again with his own style of philanthropy and passion for innovation. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I'm going to talk today about energy and climate.
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Danas ću govoriti o energiji i klimatskim promenama.
00:20
And that might seem a bit surprising because
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To možda zvuči iznenađujuće od mene
00:22
my full-time work at the Foundation is mostly about vaccines and seeds,
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budući da moj posao u fondaciji podrazumeva većinom oblasti vezane za vakcine i semena,
00:27
about the things that we need to invent and deliver
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stvari koje je potrebno da osmišljavamo i isporučujemo
00:30
to help the poorest two billion live better lives.
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u cilju pomoći 2 milijarde najsiromašnijih na svetu.
00:35
But energy and climate are extremely important to these people --
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Ali energija i klimatske promene su izuzetno važne upravo ovim ljudima,
00:40
in fact, more important than to anyone else on the planet.
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zapravo, važnije nego bilo kome drugom na celoj planeti.
00:45
The climate getting worse means that many years, their crops won't grow:
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Pogoršanje klimatskih uslova znači loš rast i razvoj njihovih useva.
00:50
There will be too much rain, not enough rain,
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Ili će biti previše kiše, ili nedovoljno kiše za njihove potrebe.
00:53
things will change in ways
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Stvari će se menjati na način
00:55
that their fragile environment simply can't support.
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koji njihova osetljiva sredina jednostavno neće podneti.
00:59
And that leads to starvation, it leads to uncertainty, it leads to unrest.
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A to vodi do umiranja od gladi. To vodi do nesigurnosti. Do nestabilnosti i nemira.
01:04
So, the climate changes will be terrible for them.
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Tako će klimatske promene biti katastrofalne za njih.
01:08
Also, the price of energy is very important to them.
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Takođe, cena energije njima je veoma važna.
01:11
In fact, if you could pick just one thing to lower the price of,
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U principu, kada bi imali mogućnost da biramo da snizimo cenu samo jedne stvari,
01:14
to reduce poverty, by far you would pick energy.
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u cilju smanjenja siromaštva, to bi bila energija.
01:18
Now, the price of energy has come down over time.
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Cena energije je vremenom opala.
01:22
Really advanced civilization is based on advances in energy.
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Zaista, napredak civilizacije je baziran na napretku energije.
01:28
The coal revolution fueled the Industrial Revolution,
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Revolucija u proizvodnji uglja dovela je do industrijske revolucije,
01:32
and, even in the 1900s we've seen a very rapid decline in the price of electricity,
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čak smo videli drastičan pad cene električne energije početkom XX veka,
01:38
and that's why we have refrigerators, air-conditioning,
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i zbog toga danas imamo frižidere, klima uređaje,
01:41
we can make modern materials and do so many things.
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možemo stvarati savremene materijale i činiti mnogo stvari.
01:45
And so, we're in a wonderful situation with electricity in the rich world.
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I tako smo se našli u predivnoj situaciji sa električnom energijom u bogatom svetu.
01:52
But, as we make it cheaper -- and let's go for making it twice as cheap --
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Ali, kako je činimo jeftinijom - i dozvoljavamo da bude čak i duplo jeftinija -
01:59
we need to meet a new constraint,
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suočavamo se sa novim ograničenjima,
02:01
and that constraint has to do with CO2.
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a ta ograničenja su u vezi sa CO2.
02:05
CO2 is warming the planet,
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CO2 zagreva planetu,
02:08
and the equation on CO2 is actually a very straightforward one.
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a računica sa CO2 je izuzetno jednostavna.
02:14
If you sum up the CO2 that gets emitted,
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Ako sumirate CO2 koji se emituje,
02:18
that leads to a temperature increase,
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videćete da to dovodi do porasta temperature,
02:21
and that temperature increase leads to some very negative effects:
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a povećanje temperature dovodi do negativnih posledica.
02:25
the effects on the weather; perhaps worse, the indirect effects,
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Posledice se odnose na klimu i u još gorem slučaju, posledice mogu biti indirektne
02:28
in that the natural ecosystems can't adjust to these rapid changes,
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u tom smislu što se prirodni ekosistemi ne mogu prilagoditi rapidnim promenama,
02:33
and so you get ecosystem collapses.
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te tako dolazi do kolapsa ekosistema.
02:36
Now, the exact amount of how you map
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E sada, tačan podatak koji želite da dobijete
02:39
from a certain increase of CO2 to what temperature will be
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o tome koliko će sniženje temperature biti u zavisnosti od umanjenja emisije CO2
02:43
and where the positive feedbacks are,
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i kakve će biti pozitivne povratne reakcije,
02:45
there's some uncertainty there, but not very much.
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u tome postoji znatan stepen nesigurnosti, ali ne prevelik.
02:48
And there's certainly uncertainty about how bad those effects will be,
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I postoji izvesna neodređenost u pogledu toga koliko su loši efekti emisije,
02:51
but they will be extremely bad.
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ali sa sigurnošću se može reći da su ekstremno loši.
02:54
I asked the top scientists on this several times:
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Pitao sam vodeće stručnjake u ovoj oblasti više puta,
02:56
Do we really have to get down to near zero?
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da li je zaista potrebno svesti emisiju baš skoro do nule?
02:59
Can't we just cut it in half or a quarter?
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Možemo li je samo smanjiti na pola ili na četvrtinu?
03:02
And the answer is that until we get near to zero,
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Odgovor je bio da, sve dok ne svedemo emisiju skoro do nule,
03:06
the temperature will continue to rise.
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temperatura će nastaviti da raste.
03:08
And so that's a big challenge.
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A to je veliki izazov.
03:10
It's very different than saying "We're a twelve-foot-high truck trying to get under a ten-foot bridge,
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To je prilično drugačije od toga da pokušamo da uguramo 4m visok kamion ispod mosta visine 3m,
03:15
and we can just sort of squeeze under."
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gledaćemo samo da ga nekako provučemo ispod.
03:18
This is something that has to get to zero.
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Ovo je nešto što mora da se svede na nulu.
03:22
Now, we put out a lot of carbon dioxide every year,
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E sada, mi ispuštamo mnogo karbon dioksida svake godine,
03:26
over 26 billion tons.
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tačnije, preko 26 milijardi tona.
03:28
For each American, it's about 20 tons;
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Za svakog Amerikanca, to je oko 20 tona.
03:32
for people in poor countries, it's less than one ton.
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Za ljude u siromašnim zemljama, to je manje od jedne tone.
03:35
It's an average of about five tons for everyone on the planet.
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To je u proseku, oko pet tona po svakoj osobi na planeti.
03:39
And, somehow, we have to make changes
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I nekako, mi moramo da napravimo promene
03:41
that will bring that down to zero.
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da bi sveli to na nulu.
03:44
It's been constantly going up.
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To je proces koji je stalno u porastu.
03:46
It's only various economic changes that have even flattened it at all,
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To su samo različite ekonomske promene koje su doprinele tome,
03:51
so we have to go from rapidly rising
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tako da mi moramo da idemo od rapidnog povećenja
03:54
to falling, and falling all the way to zero.
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do naglog spuštanja skroz do nule.
03:57
This equation has four factors,
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Ova jednačina ima četiri faktora.
03:59
a little bit of multiplication:
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Malo množenja.
04:01
So, you've got a thing on the left, CO2, that you want to get to zero,
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Tako, imate CO2 na levoj strani koji želite da svedete na nulu,
04:04
and that's going to be based on the number of people,
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i to će biti zasnovano na broju ljudi,
04:08
the services each person's using on average,
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na njihovim različitim uslugama kojima se koriste u proseku,
04:11
the energy on average for each service,
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energiji koja se prosečno potroši pri svakoj usluzi,
04:14
and the CO2 being put out per unit of energy.
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i količini CO2 koja se potroši po jedinici te energije.
04:18
So, let's look at each one of these
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Tako, pogledajmo svaku od postojećih vrednosti,
04:20
and see how we can get this down to zero.
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i vidimo kako ćemo doći do nule.
04:24
Probably, one of these numbers is going to have to get pretty near to zero.
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Verovatno, jedan od ovih brojeva će morati da bude prilično blizu nule.
04:28
Now that's back from high school algebra,
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E sada, to bi bilo malo povratka školskoj algebri,
04:31
but let's take a look.
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ali hajde da pogledamo.
04:33
First, we've got population.
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Prvo, imamo populaciju.
04:35
The world today has 6.8 billion people.
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Svet danas ima 6.8 milijardi ljudi.
04:38
That's headed up to about nine billion.
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Ta cifra se kreće ka devet milijardi.
04:40
Now, if we do a really great job on new vaccines,
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E sad, ako odradimo zbilja dobar posao sa novim vakcinama,
04:44
health care, reproductive health services,
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zdravstvenom negom, servisima za reproduktivno zdravlje,
04:46
we could lower that by, perhaps, 10 or 15 percent,
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mogli bismo to sniziti za, recimo, 10 do 15 procenata,
04:50
but there we see an increase of about 1.3.
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ali i dalje vidimo porast od oko 1.3.
04:54
The second factor is the services we use.
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Drugi faktor su usluge koje koristimo.
04:57
This encompasses everything:
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To obuhvata baš sve,
04:59
the food we eat, clothing, TV, heating.
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hranu koju jedemo, odeću, TV, grejanje.
05:03
These are very good things:
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Ovo su sve jako dobre stvari,
05:06
getting rid of poverty means providing these services
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i rešavanje siromaštva znači obezbeđivanje ovih usluga
05:09
to almost everyone on the planet.
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skoro svima na planeti.
05:11
And it's a great thing for this number to go up.
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I sjajna je stvar ukoliko se vrednost ovog broja poveća.
05:15
In the rich world, perhaps the top one billion,
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U bogatom svetu, recimo jedna milijarda koja je na vrhu,
05:17
we probably could cut back and use less,
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verovatno bi mogla da smanji korišćenje ovih usluga,
05:19
but every year, this number, on average, is going to go up,
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ali svake godine, ovaj broj, u proseku će rasti,
05:23
and so, over all, that will more than double
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i tako, povrh svega, udvostručiće se
05:27
the services delivered per person.
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broj usluga po osobi.
05:30
Here we have a very basic service:
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Ovde imamo najosnovnije usluge.
05:32
Do you have lighting in your house to be able to read your homework?
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Da li palite svetlo u kući da biste mogli da čitate svoj domaći zadatak,
05:35
And, in fact, these kids don't, so they're going out
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ova deca to ne mogu, oni izlaze napolje,
05:37
and reading their school work under the street lamps.
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da bi čitali svoj zadatak pod svetlošću uličnih lampi.
05:42
Now, efficiency, E, the energy for each service,
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Sada, efikasnost, E, energija utrošena za svaku ovu uslugu,
05:46
here finally we have some good news.
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ovde, najzad imamo malo dobrih vesti.
05:48
We have something that's not going up.
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Ovde imamo nešto što nije u porastu.
05:50
Through various inventions and new ways of doing lighting,
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Kroz različite inovacije i nove načine dobijanja svetlosti,
05:53
through different types of cars, different ways of building buildings --
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kroz različite vrste automobila, različite načine izrade zgrada,
05:58
there are a lot of services where you can bring
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postoji mnogo usluga gde se može postići
06:01
the energy for that service down quite substantially.
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prilično značajno smanjenje energije,
06:05
Some individual services even bring it down by 90 percent.
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u nekim individualnim uslugama čak se može sniziti za 90 procenata.
06:08
There are other services like how we make fertilizer,
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Ali, postoje neke druge usluge kao na primer način na koji stvaramo đubrivo,
06:11
or how we do air transport,
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ili kako omogućavamo avionski saobraćaj
06:13
where the rooms for improvement are far, far less.
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gde je prostor za poboljšanje znatno, znatno manji.
06:17
And so, overall here, if we're optimistic,
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I tako, sve u svemu, ukoliko smo optismiti,
06:19
we may get a reduction of a factor of three to even, perhaps, a factor of six.
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mogli bismo da postignemo redukciju od faktora tri do čak, možda, faktora od šest.
06:26
But for these first three factors now,
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Ali za ova prva tri faktora,
06:29
we've gone from 26 billion to, at best, maybe 13 billion tons,
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uspeli smo da dobijemo umanjenje sa 26 milijardi, na, u najboljem slučaju, 13 milijardi tona,
06:34
and that just won't cut it.
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a to jednostavno nije dovoljno.
06:36
So let's look at this fourth factor --
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Stoga, pogledajmo ovaj četvrti faktor -
06:38
this is going to be a key one --
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ovaj će se ispostaviti kao ključni -
06:40
and this is the amount of CO2 put out per each unit of energy.
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a to je količina CO2 emitovanog po jedinici energije.
06:46
And so the question is: Can you actually get that to zero?
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A glavno pitanje je, da li je zaista moguće da bude sveden na nulu?
06:50
If you burn coal, no.
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Ako sagorevate ugalj, ne.
06:52
If you burn natural gas, no.
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Ako sagorevate prirodni gas, ne.
06:54
Almost every way we make electricity today,
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Skoro svi načini na koje danas stvaramo električnu energiju,
06:57
except for the emerging renewables and nuclear, puts out CO2.
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izuzev obnovljivih izvora energije koja je u razvoju i nuklearne, oslobađaju CO2.
07:03
And so, what we're going to have to do at a global scale,
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I tako, ono što ćemo mi morati da uradimo na globalnom nivou,
07:06
is create a new system.
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jeste da kreiramo novi sistem.
07:09
And so, we need energy miracles.
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Trebaju nam energetska čuda.
07:11
Now, when I use the term "miracle," I don't mean something that's impossible.
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Kada koristim termin "čudo", ja ne mislim na nešto što je nemoguće.
07:15
The microprocessor is a miracle. The personal computer is a miracle.
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Mikroprocesor je čudo. Personalni računar je čudo.
07:20
The Internet and its services are a miracle.
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Internet i njegove usluge su čudo.
07:23
So, the people here have participated in the creation of many miracles.
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Tako posmatrano, ljudi ovde su učestvovali u kreiranju mnogih čuda.
07:28
Usually, we don't have a deadline,
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Obično nemamo fiksiran rok,
07:30
where you have to get the miracle by a certain date.
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do kog bi morali da izmislimo to čudo.
07:32
Usually, you just kind of stand by, and some come along, some don't.
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Obično smo u nekakvom stanju pripravnosti i neki dodju na ideju, neki ne.
07:36
This is a case where we actually have to drive at full speed
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Ovo je situacija u kojoj ćemo morati da se ubrzamo
07:40
and get a miracle in a pretty tight timeline.
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i pronađemo to čudo u prilično brzom roku.
07:45
Now, I thought, "How could I really capture this?
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Sada razmišljam, kako bih zaista mogao učiniti to?
07:48
Is there some kind of natural illustration,
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Postoji li neka vrsta prirodne ilustracije,
07:50
some demonstration that would grab people's imagination here?"
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nekakva demonstracija koja bi usmerila ljudsku imaginaciju na ovaj put?
07:55
I thought back to a year ago when I brought mosquitos,
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Pomislio sam na prošlu godinu kad sam doneo komarce ovde,
07:59
and somehow people enjoyed that.
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i nekako su ljudi zbilja uživali u tome.
08:01
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
08:03
It really got them involved in the idea of,
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To ih je zbilja navelo da pomisle,
08:06
you know, there are people who live with mosquitos.
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da, znate, postoje ljudi koji žive sa komarcima.
08:09
So, with energy, all I could come up with is this.
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Sa energijom, sve što sam uspeo da smislim je ovo.
08:14
I decided that releasing fireflies
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Odlučio sam da je oslobađanje svitaca
08:17
would be my contribution to the environment here this year.
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moj ovogodišnji doprinos sredini.
08:21
So here we have some natural fireflies.
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I tako mi ovde imamo neke prirodne svice.
08:24
I'm told they don't bite; in fact, they might not even leave that jar.
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Rečeno mi je da oni ne ujedaju, zapravo, vrlo je moguće da uopšte i ne napuste teglu.
08:27
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
08:30
Now, there's all sorts of gimmicky solutions like that one,
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Postoji veliki broj raznovrsnih rešenja kao što je ovaj,
08:35
but they don't really add up to much.
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ali oni zapravo ne doprinose mnogo.
08:37
We need solutions -- either one or several --
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Potrebno nam je rešenje, jedno ili nekoliko njih,
08:41
that have unbelievable scale
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koje će imati nezamislive domete
08:45
and unbelievable reliability,
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i neverovatnu pouzdanost,
08:47
and, although there's many directions people are seeking,
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i iako postoji mnoštvo različitih direkcija po kojima se ljudi vode,
08:50
I really only see five that can achieve the big numbers.
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ja trenutno mogu da vidim pet pristupa.
08:54
I've left out tide, geothermal, fusion, biofuels.
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Izostavio sam plimu, geotermalne, fuziju, biogoriva.
08:59
Those may make some contribution,
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Oni mogu dati neki doprinos,
09:01
and if they can do better than I expect, so much the better,
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i ukoliko mogu više od onoga koliko ja mislim, tim bolje,
09:03
but my key point here
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ali moja ključna ideja ovde
09:05
is that we're going to have to work on each of these five,
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jeste da ćemo morati da radimo na svakoj od ovih pet,
09:09
and we can't give up any of them because they look daunting,
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i ne smemo odustati niti od jedne jer sve one deluju zastrašujuće,
09:13
because they all have significant challenges.
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jer imaju značajne izazove.
09:17
Let's look first at the burning fossil fuels,
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Hajde prvo da pogledamo sagorevanje fosilnih goriva,
09:19
either burning coal or burning natural gas.
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ili sagorevanje uglja ili prirodnog gasa.
09:23
What you need to do there, seems like it might be simple, but it's not,
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Ono što se tu treba uraditi i što deluje jednostavno, ali zapravo nije,
09:26
and that's to take all the CO2, after you've burned it, going out the flue,
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je ekstrahovanje kompletnog CO2, nakon što ga sagorite, izdvojite iz goriva,
09:32
pressurize it, create a liquid, put it somewhere,
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kompresujete ga, stvorite tečnost, uskladištite ga negde,
09:35
and hope it stays there.
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i potom se nadate da će tamo i ostati.
09:37
Now we have some pilot things that do this at the 60 to 80 percent level,
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Postoje neki pilot projekti koji rade upravo ovo sa uspešnošću od 60 do 80 procenata,
09:41
but getting up to that full percentage, that will be very tricky,
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ali dostizanje punog procenta će biti izuzetno nezgodno,
09:45
and agreeing on where these CO2 quantities should be put will be hard,
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i dogovor oko toga gde će se taj CO2 skladištiti će biti izuzetno težak,
09:51
but the toughest one here is this long-term issue.
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ali najteže od svega ovde jeste pitanje dugoročnosti.
09:54
Who's going to be sure?
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Ko će uopšte biti siguran u to?
09:56
Who's going to guarantee something that is literally billions of times larger
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Ko će garantovati nešto što bi bilo bukvalno milijardama puta veće
10:00
than any type of waste you think of in terms of nuclear or other things?
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od bilo kog tipa otpada koji vam padne na pamet, npr nuklearnog ili tome slično?
10:04
This is a lot of volume.
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To je ogromna količina.
10:07
So that's a tough one.
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Tako da je to pravi problem.
10:09
Next would be nuclear.
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Sledeće bi bila nuklearna.
10:11
It also has three big problems:
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To takođe ima tri velika problema.
10:14
Cost, particularly in highly regulated countries, is high;
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Troškovi, posebno u visoko razvijenim zemljama su jako visoki.
10:18
the issue of the safety, really feeling good about nothing could go wrong,
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Pitanje bezbednosti, stvarno dobar osećaj da ništa ne može krenuti loše,
10:22
that, even though you have these human operators,
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problematično je zbog postojanja mogućnosti
10:25
that the fuel doesn't get used for weapons.
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upotrebe toga za oružje.
10:28
And then what do you do with the waste?
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I onda, šta raditi sa otpadom?
10:30
And, although it's not very large, there are a lot of concerns about that.
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Iako nije prevelik, postoji mnogo brige oko toga.
10:33
People need to feel good about it.
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Ljudi moraju da se osećaju dobro povodom toga.
10:35
So three very tough problems that might be solvable,
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Znači, tri velika teška problema koja bi bila rešiva,
10:40
and so, should be worked on.
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i na kojima bi stoga trebalo raditi.
10:42
The last three of the five, I've grouped together.
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Preostala tri od pet, spojiću zajedno.
10:45
These are what people often refer to as the renewable sources.
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Oni se odnose na ono što ljudi najčešće nazivaju izvorima obnovljive energije.
10:49
And they actually -- although it's great they don't require fuel --
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A oni zapravo, iako je sjajno što ne zahtevaju goriva,
10:53
they have some disadvantages.
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imaju i neke nedostatke.
10:55
One is that the density of energy gathered in these technologies
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Jedna je ta da je gustina energije sakupljena pomoću ovih tehnologija
11:01
is dramatically less than a power plant.
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drastično manja od one dobijene iz elektrana.
11:03
This is energy farming, so you're talking about many square miles,
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To je energija dobijena iz poljoprivrede, gde se podrazumeva mnogo kvadratnih milja površine,
11:07
thousands of time more area than you think of as a normal energy plant.
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hiljadu puta više nego što bi pomislili kada je u pitanju obična elektrana.
11:12
Also, these are intermittent sources.
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Takođe, ovo su i izvori na koje ne možemo uvek računati.
11:15
The sun doesn't shine all day, it doesn't shine every day,
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Sunce ne sija ceo dan, ne sija ni svaki dan,
11:18
and, likewise, the wind doesn't blow all the time.
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i, slično, vetar ne duva stalno.
11:21
And so, if you depend on these sources,
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I tako, ukoliko zavisite od ovih izvora,
11:23
you have to have some way of getting the energy
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morate imati neki način za dobijanje energije
11:26
during those time periods that it's not available.
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u toku onih perioda kada ovi izvori nisu dostupni.
11:29
So, we've got big cost challenges here,
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Tako imamo poprilično skupe izazove ovde.
11:32
we have transmission challenges:
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Imamo izazove vezane za prenos.
11:34
for example, say this energy source is outside your country;
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Na primer, recimo da su ovi izvori energije izvan vaše zemlje,
11:37
you not only need the technology,
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ne samo da vam treba tehnologija,
11:39
but you have to deal with the risk of the energy coming from elsewhere.
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nego treba da se nosite i sa rizikom da dobijate energiju sa nepoznatih strana.
11:44
And, finally, this storage problem.
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I najzad, problem sa skladištenjem.
11:46
And, to dimensionalize this, I went through and looked at
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I da bih sagledao ovo sa svih strana, otišao sam i pogledao
11:49
all the types of batteries that get made --
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sve vrste baterija koje su napravljene,
11:52
for cars, for computers, for phones, for flashlights, for everything --
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za automobile, kompjutere, telefone, lampe, za sve,
11:56
and compared that to the amount of electrical energy the world uses,
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i uporedio ih sa ukupnom količinom električne energije koju svet koristi,
12:01
and what I found is that all the batteries we make now
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i ono što sam otkrio je to da sve baterije koje pravimo danas
12:05
could store less than 10 minutes of all the energy.
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mogu uskladištiti manje od 10 minuta celokupne energije.
12:09
And so, in fact, we need a big breakthrough here,
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I tako, zapravo, potreban nam je veliki prodor ovde,
12:12
something that's going to be a factor of 100 better
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nešto što će biti faktor otprilike sto puta bolji
12:16
than the approaches we have now.
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od pristupa koje imamo sada.
12:18
It's not impossible, but it's not a very easy thing.
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To nije nemoguće, ali nije ni lako postići.
12:22
Now, this shows up when you try to get the intermittent source
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E sada, ovo se dešava kada pokušavate da koristite promenljive izvore
12:26
to be above, say, 20 to 30 percent of what you're using.
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da biste postigli rast od 20 do 30 procenata u nečemu što koristite.
12:30
If you're counting on it for 100 percent,
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Ako ste računali na to za 100 procenata,
12:32
you need an incredible miracle battery.
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potrebna vam je čudesna magična baterija.
12:38
Now, how we're going to go forward on this -- what's the right approach?
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A kako sada da nastavimo napred sa ovim: koji je pravi pristup?
12:41
Is it a Manhattan Project? What's the thing that can get us there?
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Da li je to Menhetn projekat? Koja je to stvar koja nas može dovesti dotle?
12:45
Well, we need lots of companies working on this, hundreds.
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Potrebno nam je mnogo kompanija koje će raditi na tome, stotine.
12:50
In each of these five paths, we need at least a hundred people.
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I u svakom od ovih pet pristupa, potrebne su nam stotine ljudi.
12:53
And a lot of them, you'll look at and say, "They're crazy." That's good.
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I za veliki broj njih vi ćete reći da su ludi. A to je dobro.
12:57
And, I think, here in the TED group,
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I ja mislim, ovde u TED grupi,
13:00
we have many people who are already pursuing this.
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imamo mnogo ljudi koji su već na tom tragu.
13:04
Bill Gross has several companies, including one called eSolar
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Bil Gros ima nekoliko kompanija, uključujući jednu koja se zove eSolar
13:08
that has some great solar thermal technologies.
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koja ima neke sjajne solarno energetske tehnologije.
13:10
Vinod Khosla's investing in dozens of companies
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Vinod Kosla investira u desetine kompanija
13:14
that are doing great things and have interesting possibilities,
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koje rade neke sjajne stvari i istražuju neke zanimljive mogućnosti,
13:18
and I'm trying to help back that.
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i ja se trudim da im pomognem.
13:20
Nathan Myhrvold and I actually are backing a company
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Netan Mirvold i ja podržavamo kompaniju
13:24
that, perhaps surprisingly, is actually taking the nuclear approach.
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koja, možda malo iznenadjujuće, zapravo uzima nuklearni pristup.
13:28
There are some innovations in nuclear: modular, liquid.
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Ima nekih inovacija u nuklearnom pristupu: modularni, tečni.
13:32
And innovation really stopped in this industry quite some ago,
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Inovacije u ovim industrijama su već neko vreme zastale,
13:36
so the idea that there's some good ideas laying around is not all that surprising.
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tako da otkriće da neke jako dobre ideje leže svuda oko nas i nije tako iznenađujuće.
13:41
The idea of TerraPower is that, instead of burning a part of uranium --
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Ideja Terrapower organizacije jeste da, umesto sagorevanja dela uranijuma,
13:47
the one percent, which is the U235 --
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jednog procenta, koji je U235,
13:50
we decided, "Let's burn the 99 percent, the U238."
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odlučili smo da sagorimo 99 procenata U238.
13:55
It is kind of a crazy idea.
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To je zapravo jedna prilično luda ideja.
13:57
In fact, people had talked about it for a long time,
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Ustvari, ljudi su pričali o tome dugo,
14:00
but they could never simulate properly whether it would work or not,
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ali nikada nisu uspeli da naprave dobru simulaciju kako bi videli da li to radi ili ne,
14:04
and so it's through the advent of modern supercomputers
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i tako sa razvojem naprednih modernih superkompjutera,
14:07
that now you can simulate and see that, yes,
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sa kojima je danas moguća dobra simulacija,
14:09
with the right material's approach, this looks like it would work.
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zaključak je da sa dobrim pristupom, takva ideja bi mogla da radi.
14:15
And, because you're burning that 99 percent,
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I iz razloga što sagorevate 99 procenata,
14:18
you have greatly improved cost profile.
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izuzetno ste poboljšali troškove.
14:22
You actually burn up the waste, and you can actually use as fuel
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Vi zapravo spaljujete i otpad, i možete koristiti kao gorivo
14:26
all the leftover waste from today's reactors.
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kompletan otpad od današnjih reaktora.
14:29
So, instead of worrying about them, you just take that. It's a great thing.
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I tako, umesto da brinete o tome, vi ga jednostavno iskoristite. To je sjajna stvar.
14:34
It breathes this uranium as it goes along, so it's kind of like a candle.
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Iskorišćavate uranijum u toku samog procesa. To je nalik sagorevanju sveće.
14:38
You can see it's a log there, often referred to as a traveling wave reactor.
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Kao što i vidite, najčešće se spominje kao putujući talasni reaktor.
14:42
In terms of fuel, this really solves the problem.
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Ukoliko govorimo o gorivu, ovo rešava problem.
14:46
I've got a picture here of a place in Kentucky.
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Imam sliku ovde jednog mesta u Kentakiju.
14:49
This is the leftover, the 99 percent,
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Ovo je ostatak, 99 procenata,
14:51
where they've taken out the part they burn now,
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gde su oni odneli deo koji sada sagorevaju,
14:53
so it's called depleted uranium.
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i to se zove istrošeni uranijum.
14:55
That would power the U.S. for hundreds of years.
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To bi obezbedilo Americi energiju narednih nekoliko stotina godina.
14:58
And, simply by filtering seawater in an inexpensive process,
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Jednostavnom filtracijom morske vode putem jeftinih procesa,
15:01
you'd have enough fuel for the entire lifetime of the rest of the planet.
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imali bismo dovoljno goriva do kraja životnog ciklusa naše planete.
15:06
So, you know, it's got lots of challenges ahead,
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I tako, postoje mnogi izazovi pred nama,
15:10
but it is an example of the many hundreds and hundreds of ideas
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ali ovo je primer nekih od stotina i stotina ideja
15:15
that we need to move forward.
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koje je potrebno da pokrenemo napred.
15:18
So let's think: How should we measure ourselves?
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Hajde da razmislimo, kako bi trebalo da ocenjujemo nas same?
15:21
What should our report card look like?
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Kako bi trebalo da izgledaju naši izveštaji?
15:24
Well, let's go out to where we really need to get,
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Hajde da izađemo napolje gde zbilja treba da odemo,
15:27
and then look at the intermediate.
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i pogledajmo brojke.
15:29
For 2050, you've heard many people talk about this 80 percent reduction.
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Do 2050, čuli ste da mnogi pričaju o redukciji od 80 procenata.
15:34
That really is very important, that we get there.
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To je zaista veoma važno, da postignemo to.
15:38
And that 20 percent will be used up by things going on in poor countries,
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A tih preostalih 20 procenata će biti iskorišćeno u neke svrhe u siromašnim zemljama,
15:42
still some agriculture,
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verovatno poljoprivrednim.
15:44
hopefully we will have cleaned up forestry, cement.
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Nadamo se da ćemo očistiti šume, cementare...
15:48
So, to get to that 80 percent,
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Tako, da bismo stigli do tih 80 procenata,
15:51
the developed countries, including countries like China,
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razvijene zemlje, uključujući i one poput Kine,
15:55
will have had to switch their electricity generation altogether.
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bi morale sve zajedno da zamene svoje električne generatore.
16:00
So, the other grade is: Are we deploying this zero-emission technology,
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Sledeće pitanje je vezano za primenu ove nula-emisija tehnologije,
16:06
have we deployed it in all the developed countries
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da li je primenjivati u svim razvijenim zemljama
16:08
and we're in the process of getting it elsewhere?
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i jesmo li u procesu njene primene i u ostalim zemljama.
16:11
That's super important.
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To je izuzetno važno.
16:13
That's a key element of making that report card.
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To je ključni element našeg konačnog izveštaja.
16:17
So, backing up from there, what should the 2020 report card look like?
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Krenuvši od toga, kako bi izveštaj trebalo da izgleda 2020?
16:22
Well, again, it should have the two elements.
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I ponovo, trebalo bi da ima dva elementa.
16:24
We should go through these efficiency measures to start getting reductions:
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Trebalo bi da se krećemo putem ovih efikasnih mera kako bi počeli postizati redukciju.
16:28
The less we emit, the less that sum will be of CO2,
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Što manje emitujemo, manja će biti količina emitovane CO2,
16:31
and, therefore, the less the temperature.
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i analogno, temperatura će biti niža.
16:33
But in some ways, the grade we get there,
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Ali u neku ruku, stepen u kome stignemo do tamo,
16:36
doing things that don't get us all the way to the big reductions,
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radeći stvari koje nas neće odvesti skroz do kraja, tj do konačne redukcije,
16:40
is only equally, or maybe even slightly less, important than the other,
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su jednako, ili samo nešto manje važne od drugih,
16:44
which is the piece of innovation on these breakthroughs.
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koje se odnose na deo inovacije ključnih prodora.
16:48
These breakthroughs, we need to move those at full speed,
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Ovi prodori, moramo ih pokretati punom brzinom,
16:51
and we can measure that in terms of companies,
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a to možemo meriti kroz postojanje kompanija,
16:54
pilot projects, regulatory things that have been changed.
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pilot projekata, regulatornim merama koje su promenjene.
16:57
There's a lot of great books that have been written about this.
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Postoje mnoge odlične knjige koje su napisane o ovome.
17:00
The Al Gore book, "Our Choice"
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Tu je knjiga Al Gora, "Naš izbor"
17:03
and the David McKay book, "Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air."
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kao i knjiga Dejvida MekKeja, "Održiva energija bez toplog vazduha".
17:06
They really go through it and create a framework
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Oni zbilja dotiču suštinu i stvaraju okvir
17:09
that this can be discussed broadly,
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da bi se o ovoj temi široko raspravljalo,
17:11
because we need broad backing for this.
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jer nam je zbilja i potrebna široka i obuhvatna pozadina za ovaj problem.
17:14
There's a lot that has to come together.
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Mnogo je toga što mora ići zajedno.
17:16
So this is a wish.
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Ovo je želja.
17:18
It's a very concrete wish that we invent this technology.
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Veoma konkretna želja da unapredimo ovu tehnologiju.
17:22
If you gave me only one wish for the next 50 years --
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Ukoliko bih mogao da poželim želju koja bi mi bila ispunjena u narednih 50 godina,
17:25
I could pick who's president,
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mogao bih da izaberem ko će biti predsednik,
17:27
I could pick a vaccine, which is something I love,
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mogao bih da izaberem neku novu vakcinu, a to je nešto što zbilja volim,
17:30
or I could pick that this thing
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ili bih mogao da izaberem ovo o čemu sam pričao
17:32
that's half the cost with no CO2 gets invented --
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a to je smanjenje emisije CO2,
17:36
this is the wish I would pick.
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upravo bih tu želju izabrao.
17:38
This is the one with the greatest impact.
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To je ona koja ima najviše uticaja.
17:40
If we don't get this wish,
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Ukoliko ne dobijemo ovu želju,
17:42
the division between the people who think short term and long term will be terrible,
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raskol između onih koji razmišljaju kratkoročno i onih koji razmišljaju dugoročno će biti strašan,
17:46
between the U.S. and China, between poor countries and rich,
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između Amerike i Kine, između siromašnih i bogatih zemalja,
17:49
and most of all the lives of those two billion will be far worse.
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i što je najznačajnije životi one 2 milijarde ljudi će biti mnogo mnogo gori.
17:54
So, what do we have to do?
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Pa šta moramo da uradimo?
17:56
What am I appealing to you to step forward and drive?
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Šta ja zapravo od vas tražim?
18:01
We need to go for more research funding.
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Potrebno nam je više finansiranja u istraživačke projekte.
18:04
When countries get together in places like Copenhagen,
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Kada se zemlje nađu sve zajedno na mestu kao što je Kopenhagen,
18:06
they shouldn't just discuss the CO2.
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ne treba da raspravljaju samo o CO2.
18:09
They should discuss this innovation agenda,
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Trebalo bi da raspravlju o kreiranju agende koja će se odnositi na neke inovacije,
18:11
and you'd be stunned at the ridiculously low levels of spending
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i bili biste zapanjeni koliko je smešno nizak nivo ulaganja
18:16
on these innovative approaches.
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u ove inovativne pristupe.
18:18
We do need the market incentives -- CO2 tax, cap and trade --
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Moramo da podstičemo tržište, CO2 takse, trgovinu,
18:22
something that gets that price signal out there.
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nešto što će proširiti ideju svuda.
18:25
We need to get the message out.
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Moramo da prenesemo poruku.
18:27
We need to have this dialogue be a more rational, more understandable dialogue,
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Moramo da vodimo jedan racionalniji dijalog, razumljiviji dijalog,
18:30
including the steps that the government takes.
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uključujući tu i korake koje vlada čini.
18:33
This is an important wish, but it is one I think we can achieve.
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Ovo je važna želja, ali mislim da je moguće ostvariti je.
18:37
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
18:39
(Applause)
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Aplauz
18:50
Thank you.
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Hvala.
18:52
Chris Anderson: Thank you. Thank you.
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Kris Anderson: Hvala. Hvala.
18:54
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
18:59
Thank you. So to understand more about TerraPower, right --
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Hvala. Da bih razumeo malo više o projektu Terrapower,
19:05
I mean, first of all, can you give a sense of what scale of investment this is?
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pre svega, možete li dati nagoveštaj o tome kolikih bi razmera bila ta investicija?
19:10
Bil Gates: To actually do the software, buy the supercomputer,
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Bil Gejts: Da bi se napravio softver, kupio super-kompjuter,
19:14
hire all the great scientists, which we've done,
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angažovali svi vrhunski naučnici, što smo mi učinili,
19:16
that's only tens of millions,
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to je svega desetak miliona,
19:19
and even once we test our materials out in a Russian reactor
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i kada budemo testirali naš materijal u ruskom reaktoru
19:22
to make sure that our materials work properly,
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da bi se uverili da naš materijal ispravno funkcioniše,
19:26
then you'll only be up in the hundreds of millions.
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tada će biti potrebno nekoliko stotina miliona.
19:28
The tough thing is building the pilot reactor;
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Teža stvar je napraviti pilot reaktor,
19:31
finding the several billion, finding the regulator, the location
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naći nekoliko milijardi, naći regulator, lokaciju
19:36
that will actually build the first one of these.
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kako bi se napravo prvi ovog tipa.
19:38
Once you get the first one built, if it works as advertised,
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Kada se napravi prvi i ukoliko se pokaže da funkcioniše prema predviđanjima,
19:42
then it's just clear as day, because the economics, the energy density,
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onda će biti jasno kao dan, jer je ekonomija, gustina energije,
19:46
are so different than nuclear as we know it.
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toliko drugačija od nuklearne, koliko je nama poznato.
19:48
CA: And so, to understand it right, this involves building deep into the ground
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KA: Znači, ukoliko sam dobro razumeo, to uključuje gradnju duboko u zemlju
19:52
almost like a vertical kind of column of nuclear fuel,
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skoro kao neka vrsta vertikalnog stuba nuklearnog goriva,
19:56
of this sort of spent uranium,
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u ovom slučaju utrošenog uranijuma,
19:58
and then the process starts at the top and kind of works down?
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i tako proces započinje na vrhu i ide ka dole?
20:01
BG: That's right. Today, you're always refueling the reactor,
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BG: Tako je. Danas se uvek reaktor dopunjava gorivom,
20:04
so you have lots of people and lots of controls that can go wrong:
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tako da imate mnogo ljudi i mnogo kontrola koje mogu načiniti grešku,
20:07
that thing where you're opening it up and moving things in and out,
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na mestu gde se otvara i gde se stvari ubacuju i izbacuju.
20:10
that's not good.
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A to nije dobro.
20:12
So, if you have very cheap fuel that you can put 60 years in --
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E pa, ako imate veoma jeftino gorivo koje možete usuti za narednih 60 godina -
20:17
just think of it as a log --
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zamislite to kao deblo -
20:19
put it down and not have those same complexities.
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ubacite unutra i nemate više tih problema.
20:22
And it just sits there and burns for the 60 years, and then it's done.
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To samo postoji unutra i sagoreva narednih 60 godina, dok ne završi.
20:27
CA: It's a nuclear power plant that is its own waste disposal solution.
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KA: To su nuklearne elektrane koje koriste svoj sopstveni otpad kao gorivo.
20:31
BG: Yeah. Well, what happens with the waste,
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BG: Da. Ono što se dešava sa otpadom,
20:33
you can let it sit there -- there's a lot less waste under this approach --
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možete ga ostaviti tamo - ima mnogo manje otpada ovakvim pristupom -
20:38
then you can actually take that,
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onda, možete ga jednostavno uzeti,
20:40
and put it into another one and burn that.
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i staviti u drugi reaktor i sagorevati.
20:43
And we start off actually by taking the waste that exists today,
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A počinjemo tako što uzimamo postojeći današnji otpad,
20:47
that's sitting in these cooling pools or dry casking by reactors --
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koji se nalazi u rashladnim bazenima ili u skladištima u reaktorima.
20:51
that's our fuel to begin with.
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To je naše gorivo sa kojim počinjemo.
20:53
So, the thing that's been a problem from those reactors
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I sada, ono što je bio problem kod tih reaktora
20:56
is actually what gets fed into ours,
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se sada ubacuje u naše
20:58
and you're reducing the volume of the waste quite dramatically
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i na taj način se dramatično redukuje nivo otpada
21:01
as you're going through this process.
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kako se ide kroz ovaj proces.
21:03
CA: I mean, you're talking to different people around the world
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KA: U Vašim govorima pred različitim ljudima po celom svetu
21:05
about the possibilities here.
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vezanim za mogućnosti o kojima govorimo,
21:07
Where is there most interest in actually doing something with this?
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gde je najveće interesovanje za stvarnu realizaciju ovoga?
21:10
BG: Well, we haven't picked a particular place,
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BG: Pa, nismo izabrali konkretno mesto,
21:13
and there's all these interesting disclosure rules about anything that's called "nuclear,"
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i svuda postoje razna interesantna pravila kad god se pomene nešto što sadrži reč "nuklearno",
21:21
so we've got a lot of interest,
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tako imamo mnogo interesenata,
21:23
that people from the company have been in Russia, India, China --
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ljudi iz tih kompanija su bili u Rusiji, Indiji, Kini.
21:27
I've been back seeing the secretary of energy here,
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Ja sam se video sa sekretarom za energetiku ovde,
21:29
talking about how this fits into the energy agenda.
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razgovarali smo o tome kako se to uklapa u postojeći energetski program.
21:33
So I'm optimistic. You know, the French and Japanese have done some work.
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I ja sam optimističan. Znate da su Francuzi i Japanci uradili već nešto.
21:36
This is a variant on something that has been done.
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Ovo je varijanta nečega što se već radilo.
21:40
It's an important advance, but it's like a fast reactor,
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Ovo je značajan napredak, ali je slično brzom reaktoru,
21:44
and a lot of countries have built them,
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i dosta zemalja ih je već gradilo,
21:46
so anybody who's done a fast reactor is a candidate to be where the first one gets built.
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tako da svako ko je napravio brzi reaktor je kandidat da bude prvi koji će graditi ovaj tip.
21:51
CA: So, in your mind, timescale and likelihood
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KA: I po Vašem mišljenju, vreme i verovatnoća
21:56
of actually taking something like this live?
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da će ovako nešto zbilja zaživeti?
21:59
BG: Well, we need -- for one of these high-scale, electro-generation things
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BG: Pa, potrebni su nam elektro-generatori
22:04
that's very cheap,
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što je izuzetno jeftino,
22:06
we have 20 years to invent and then 20 years to deploy.
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i imamo 20 godina da osmislimo i 20 godina da implementiramo.
22:10
That's sort of the deadline that the environmental models
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To je neka vrsta roka koju nam je dala prirodna sredina
22:15
have shown us that we have to meet.
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i koji moramo da ostvarimo.
22:17
And, you know, TerraPower, if things go well -- which is wishing for a lot --
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I ako stvari budu tekle kako treba, i čemu se nadamo, Terrapower
22:22
could easily meet that.
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bi mogla ostvariti to.
22:24
And there are, fortunately now, dozens of companies --
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I postoje, na sreću, desetine kompanija,
22:27
we need it to be hundreds --
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potrebno je da ih bude stotine,
22:29
who, likewise, if their science goes well,
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koje će se, ukoliko njihova nauka bude napredovala,
22:31
if the funding for their pilot plants goes well,
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ukoliko fondacije budu finansirale njihove pilot projekte,
22:34
that they can compete for this.
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takmičiti oko ovoga.
22:36
And it's best if multiple succeed,
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I najbolje je ako više njih uspe,
22:38
because then you could use a mix of these things.
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jer ćete onda koristiti kombinaciju ovih stvari.
22:41
We certainly need one to succeed.
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Definitivno nam je potrebna makar jedna da bismo uspeli.
22:43
CA: In terms of big-scale possible game changes,
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KA: U terminima mogućih promena velikih razmera koje su u igri,
22:46
is this the biggest that you're aware of out there?
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da li je ovo najveća po Vašem mišljenju?
22:49
BG: An energy breakthrough is the most important thing.
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BG: Prodor u energiji je najvažnija stvar.
22:53
It would have been, even without the environmental constraint,
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Bio bi čak i da ne postoje problemi u prirodnoj sredini,
22:55
but the environmental constraint just makes it so much greater.
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ali s obzirom da postoje, oni čine ovaj problem još značajnijim.
23:00
In the nuclear space, there are other innovators.
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U nuklearnom prostoru, postoje drugi inovatori.
23:03
You know, we don't know their work as well as we know this one,
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Mi ne poznajemo toliko dobro njihov rad kao što poznajemo naš,
23:06
but the modular people, that's a different approach.
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ali recimo modulacija, to je drugačiji pristup.
23:09
There's a liquid-type reactor, which seems a little hard,
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Tu je i reaktor na bazi vode, koji deluje dosta komplikovano,
23:13
but maybe they say that about us.
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ali možda i oni to kažu za nas.
23:15
And so, there are different ones,
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I tako, postoje različiti pristupi,
23:18
but the beauty of this is a molecule of uranium
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ali lepota ovoga je ta da molekul uranijuma
23:21
has a million times as much energy as a molecule of, say, coal,
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ima milion puta više energije od recimo, molekula uglja,
23:25
and so -- if you can deal with the negatives,
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i tako, ukoliko se možete nositi sa negativnim stranama,
23:28
which are essentially the radiation --
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kao što je pre svega radijacija,
23:31
the footprint and cost, the potential,
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a onda i troškovi,
23:34
in terms of effect on land and various things,
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potencijalni uticaji na zemlju i druge različite stvari,
23:36
is almost in a class of its own.
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onda je ovo zaista posebna vrednost za sebe.
23:40
CA: If this doesn't work, then what?
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KA: A ako to ne uspe, šta onda?
23:44
Do we have to start taking emergency measures
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Da li ćemo morati da počnemo sa nekim vanrednim merama
23:48
to try and keep the temperature of the earth stable?
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da bi zadržali stabilnu temperaturu na zemlji?
23:51
BG: If you get into that situation,
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BG: Ukoliko dođete u takvu situaciju,
23:53
it's like if you've been over-eating, and you're about to have a heart attack:
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to je kao da ste se prejeli, i samo što niste dobili srčani udar.
23:58
Then where do you go? You may need heart surgery or something.
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Gde onda idete? Biće vam potrebna operacija na srcu ili tako nešto.
24:02
There is a line of research on what's called geoengineering,
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Postoji vrsta istraživanja koja se zove geoinženjering,
24:06
which are various techniques that would delay the heating
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koja se bazira na različitim tehnikama koje bi odložile pregrejavanje
24:09
to buy us 20 or 30 years to get our act together.
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i na taj način nam kupile 20 do 30 godina da se saberemo.
24:12
Now, that's just an insurance policy.
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E sada, to je samo neka vrsta polise osiguranja.
24:14
You hope you don't need to do that.
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Nadamo se da neće biti potrebe za njom.
24:16
Some people say you shouldn't even work on the insurance policy
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Neki ljudi kažu da uopšte ne treba raditi na takvoj polisi osiguranja
24:18
because it might make you lazy,
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jer se možete ulenjiti,
24:20
that you'll keep eating because you know heart surgery will be there to save you.
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jer ćete nastaviti da jedete znajući da će vas hirurška intervencija na srcu spasiti.
24:24
I'm not sure that's wise, given the importance of the problem,
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Nisam siguran da je to mudro, imajući u vidu važnost problema,
24:27
but there's now the geoengineering discussion
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ali postoji diskusija na nivou geoinženjeringa
24:31
about -- should that be in the back pocket in case things happen faster,
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o tome da li to treba imati u rezervi u slučaju da se stvari odviju brže,
24:35
or this innovation goes a lot slower than we expect?
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ili ova inovacija ide dosta sporije nego što očekujemo.
24:40
CA: Climate skeptics: If you had a sentence or two to say to them,
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KA: Skepticima o klimatskim problemima: ukoliko bi imali rečenicu ili dve da im uputite,
24:45
how might you persuade them that they're wrong?
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kako biste ih ubedili da nisu u pravu?
24:50
BG: Well, unfortunately, the skeptics come in different camps.
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BG: Na žalost, skeptici dolaze sa različitih strana.
24:54
The ones who make scientific arguments are very few.
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Oni koji imaju prave naučne argumente su malobrojni.
24:58
Are they saying that there's negative feedback effects
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Da li oni govore o negativnim povratnim efektima
25:01
that have to do with clouds that offset things?
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koji imaju veze sa oblacima koji neutralizuju stvari?
25:03
There are very, very few things that they can even say
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Postoji jako, jako malo stvari koje oni mogu i pomenuti
25:06
there's a chance in a million of those things.
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šansa je jedan u milion za takvu neku stvar.
25:09
The main problem we have here, it's kind of like AIDS.
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Glavni problem koji mi ovde imamo je nekako sličan AIDS-u.
25:12
You make the mistake now, and you pay for it a lot later.
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Napraviš grešku sada, a plaćaš je mnogo kasnije.
25:16
And so, when you have all sorts of urgent problems,
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Tako kada imate mnogo različitih hitnih problema,
25:20
the idea of taking pain now that has to do with a gain later,
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ideja da sada snosite bol koja će se tek kasnije pokazati kao dobit -
25:23
and a somewhat uncertain pain thing --
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pomalo postajete nesigurni u to.
25:26
in fact, the IPCC report, that's not necessarily the worst case,
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Zapravo, IPCC (Izveštaj o klimatskim promenama), ne pokazuje da je to nužno najteži slučaj,
25:32
and there are people in the rich world who look at IPCC
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i postoje ljudi u bogatim zemljama koji su pogledali taj izveštaj
25:34
and say, "OK, that isn't that big of a deal."
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i rekli da to nije toliko važna stvar.
25:38
The fact is it's that uncertain part that should move us towards this.
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Činjenica je da je to taj nesiguran deo koji bi trebao da nas pokreće.
25:42
But my dream here is that, if you can make it economic,
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Ali moj san je, ukoliko se ovo može učiniti ekonomičnim,
25:45
and meet the CO2 constraints,
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i suočiti sa CO2 ograničenjima,
25:47
then the skeptics say, "OK,
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onda će skeptici reći, u redu,
25:49
I don't care that it doesn't put out CO2,
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nije mi važno to što se ne emituje CO2,
25:51
I kind of wish it did put out CO2,
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nekako bih ipak želeo da se emituje,
25:53
but I guess I'll accept it because it's cheaper than what's come before."
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ali prihvatiću to jer je jeftinije od onoga prethodnog.
25:57
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
26:01
CA: And so, that would be your response to the Bjorn Lomborg argument,
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KA: Znači, to bi bio Vaš odgovor argumentima Bjorna Lomborga,
26:05
that basically if you spend all this energy trying to solve the CO2 problem,
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koji se odnose na to da ukoliko svu energiju utrošite na rešavanje problema sa CO2,
26:09
it's going to take away all your other goals
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to će ugroziti ostvarivanje drugih važnih ciljeva
26:11
of trying to rid the world of poverty and malaria and so forth,
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kao što su pokušaji smanjenja siromaštva i malarije i tako redom,
26:14
it's a stupid waste of the Earth's resources to put money towards that
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i da je to glupo trošenje resursa
26:18
when there are better things we can do.
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kada postoje pametnije stvari koje bi trebalo raditi.
26:20
BG: Well, the actual spending on the R&D piece --
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BG: Stvarni troškovi dela novca od fonda za razvoj i istraživanje (R&D) -
26:23
say the U.S. should spend 10 billion a year more than it is right now --
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recimo SAD treba da potroši 10 milijardi godišnje više nego što trenutno troši --
26:27
it's not that dramatic.
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to nije toliko dramatična promena.
26:29
It shouldn't take away from other things.
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Ne bi se trebalo oduzeti od drugih stvari.
26:31
The thing you get into big money on, and this, reasonable people can disagree,
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Radi se o tome da kada investirate velike pare, razumni ljudi se možda neće složiti,
26:34
is when you have something that's non-economic and you're trying to fund that --
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na nešto što je ekonomski neisplativo i pokušavate da to finansirate.
26:37
that, to me, mostly is a waste.
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To je, po meni, bacanje para.
26:40
Unless you're very close and you're just funding the learning curve
473
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Osim ako je to nešto na samoj prekretnici
26:43
and it's going to get very cheap,
474
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da postane veoma jeftino (isplativo).
26:45
I believe we should try more things that have a potential
475
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Mislim da bi trebalo da isprobamo više stvari koje imaju potencijal
26:49
to be far less expensive.
476
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da postanu jeftinije.
26:51
If the trade-off you get into is, "Let's make energy super expensive,"
477
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Ako se svetska ekonomija kreće u tom smeru da će energija biti super-skupa,
26:56
then the rich can afford that.
478
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bogati će moći da to sebi priušte.
26:58
I mean, all of us here could pay five times as much for our energy
479
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Svi mi ovde bismo mogli plaćati pet puta više našu energiju
27:01
and not change our lifestyle.
480
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a da to ne utiče na promenu našeg životnog stila.
27:03
The disaster is for that two billion.
481
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Ali to bi bila katastrofa za one dve milijarde.
27:05
And even Lomborg has changed.
482
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Čak se i Lomborg promenio.
27:07
His shtick now is, "Why isn't the R&D getting more discussed?"
483
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Njegov glavni adut sada je: zašto se u R&D ne diskutuje malo više o tome?
27:12
He's still, because of his earlier stuff,
484
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On je još uvek, zbog ranijih stvari,
27:14
still associated with the skeptic camp,
485
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povezan sa skepticima,
27:16
but he's realized that's a pretty lonely camp,
486
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ali shvata da su postali prilično usamljeni,
27:19
and so, he's making the R&D point.
487
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i stoga on ističe ovo što je u vezi sa R&D.
27:22
And so there is a thread of something that I think is appropriate.
488
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I tako tu postoji samo mala nit onoga što ja smatram da je prihvatljivo.
27:27
The R&D piece, it's crazy how little it's funded.
489
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Deo R&D-a, smešno je koliko malo investira.
27:30
CA: Well Bill, I suspect I speak on the behalf of most people here
490
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KA: Bil, verujem da govorim u ime većine ljudi ovde
27:33
to say I really hope your wish comes true. Thank you so much.
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kada kažem da se zaista nadam da će Vaša želja biti ispunjena. Mnogo hvala.
27:36
BG: Thank you.
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Hvala.
27:38
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bill Gates - PhilanthropistA passionate techie and a shrewd businessman, Bill Gates changed the world while leading Microsoft to dizzying success. Now he's doing it again with his own style of philanthropy and passion for innovation.
Why you should listen
Bill Gates is the founder and former CEO of Microsoft. A geek icon, tech visionary and business trailblazer, Gates' leadership -- fueled by his long-held dream that millions might realize their potential through great software -- made Microsoft a personal computing powerhouse and a trendsetter in the Internet dawn. Whether you're a suit, chef, quant, artist, media maven, nurse or gamer, you've probably used a Microsoft product today.
In summer of 2008, Gates left his day-to-day role with Microsoft to focus on philanthropy. Holding that all lives have equal value (no matter where they're being lived), the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has now donated staggering sums to HIV/AIDS programs, libraries, agriculture research and disaster relief -- and offered vital guidance and creative funding to programs in global health and education. Gates believes his tech-centric strategy for giving will prove the killer app of planet Earth's next big upgrade.
Read a collection of Bill and Melinda Gates' annual letters, where they take stock of the Gates Foundation and the world. And follow his ongoing thinking on his personal website, The Gates Notes. His new paper, "The Next Epidemic," is published by the New England Journal of Medicine.
Bill Gates | Speaker | TED.com