TED2010
Bill Gates: Innovating to zero!
Bill Gates o energiji: Inovacijama do nule!
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Na TED2010 Bill Gates otkriva svoju viziju za energetsku budućnost svijeta, opisujući potrebu za "čudima" da bi izbjegli planetarnu katastrofu, i objašnjavajući zašto podržava drastično drugačiji tip nuklearnog reaktora. Traženi cilj? Nulta stopa globalne emisije ugljika do 2050.
Bill Gates - Philanthropist
A passionate techie and a shrewd businessman, Bill Gates changed the world while leading Microsoft to dizzying success. Now he's doing it again with his own style of philanthropy and passion for innovation. Full bio
A passionate techie and a shrewd businessman, Bill Gates changed the world while leading Microsoft to dizzying success. Now he's doing it again with his own style of philanthropy and passion for innovation. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I'm going to talk today about energy and climate.
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Danas ću govoriti o energiji i klimi.
00:20
And that might seem a bit surprising because
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To se može činiti malo iznenađujuće jer se
00:22
my full-time work at the Foundation is mostly about vaccines and seeds,
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moj glavni posao u fondaciji uglavnom vrti oko cjepiva i sjemena,
00:27
about the things that we need to invent and deliver
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oko stvari koje trebamo izmisliti i dostaviti
00:30
to help the poorest two billion live better lives.
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da bismo pomogli da dvije najsiromašnije milijarde žive bolje živote.
00:35
But energy and climate are extremely important to these people --
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Ali energija i klima su izuzetno važni tim ljudima,
00:40
in fact, more important than to anyone else on the planet.
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u stvari, važniji su njima nego ikome drugome na planetu.
00:45
The climate getting worse means that many years, their crops won't grow:
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Klima se pogoršava, to znači da mnogo godina njihovi usjevi neće roditi.
00:50
There will be too much rain, not enough rain,
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Biti će previše kiše, ili premalo kiše.
00:53
things will change in ways
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Stvari će se promijeniti na načine
00:55
that their fragile environment simply can't support.
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kakve njihov krhki okoliš jednostavno neće moći podnijeti.
00:59
And that leads to starvation, it leads to uncertainty, it leads to unrest.
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I to vodi ka gladovanju. To vodi u nesigurnost. To vodi u nemire.
01:04
So, the climate changes will be terrible for them.
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Znači, klimatske promjene za njih će biti strašne.
01:08
Also, the price of energy is very important to them.
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Također, za njih je jako važna cijena energije.
01:11
In fact, if you could pick just one thing to lower the price of,
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U stvari, ako biste mogli izabrati samo jednu stvar kojoj ćete sniziti cijenu
01:14
to reduce poverty, by far you would pick energy.
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da bi smanjili siromaštvo, to je uvjerljivo energija.
01:18
Now, the price of energy has come down over time.
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Ipak, cijena energije se snizila tijekom vremena.
01:22
Really advanced civilization is based on advances in energy.
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Zaista, napredna civilizacija je bazirana na napredku u energetici.
01:28
The coal revolution fueled the Industrial Revolution,
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Parna revolucija temeljena na ugljenu pokrenula je industrijsku revoluciju,
01:32
and, even in the 1900s we've seen a very rapid decline in the price of electricity,
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i, čak i u 1900-tima vidjeli smo veoma nagli pad u cijeni električne energije,
01:38
and that's why we have refrigerators, air-conditioning,
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i zbog toga mi imamo hladnjake, klima uređaje,
01:41
we can make modern materials and do so many things.
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možemo stvarati moderne materijale i činiti toliko mnogo stvari.
01:45
And so, we're in a wonderful situation with electricity in the rich world.
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I tako, imamo predivnu situaciju sa električnom energijom u bogatom svijetu.
01:52
But, as we make it cheaper -- and let's go for making it twice as cheap --
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Ali, kako ona postaje jeftinija, recimo da postane dvaput jeftinija,
01:59
we need to meet a new constraint,
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trebamo upoznati novo ograničenje,
02:01
and that constraint has to do with CO2.
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a to ograničenje ima veze sa CO2.
02:05
CO2 is warming the planet,
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CO2 zagrijava planet,
02:08
and the equation on CO2 is actually a very straightforward one.
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a jednadžba o CO2 je zapravo prilično jednostavna.
02:14
If you sum up the CO2 that gets emitted,
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Ako zbrojite sav CO2 koji se ispušta,
02:18
that leads to a temperature increase,
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to vodi do porasta temperature,
02:21
and that temperature increase leads to some very negative effects:
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a taj porast temperature vodi do nekih veoma negativnih učinaka.
02:25
the effects on the weather; perhaps worse, the indirect effects,
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Učinaka na vrijeme i, možda još i gore, neizravnih učinaka,
02:28
in that the natural ecosystems can't adjust to these rapid changes,
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u tome da se prirodni ekosustavi ne mogu prilagoditi ovim naglim promjenama,
02:33
and so you get ecosystem collapses.
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i tako dolazi do kolapsa ekosustava.
02:36
Now, the exact amount of how you map
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Sada, točan način kako doći
02:39
from a certain increase of CO2 to what temperature will be
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od određenog porasta koncentracije CO2 do koje temperature će to voditi
02:43
and where the positive feedbacks are,
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i gdje će biti pozitivni učinci,
02:45
there's some uncertainty there, but not very much.
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postoji neka nesigurnost oko toga, ali ne prevelika.
02:48
And there's certainly uncertainty about how bad those effects will be,
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Sigurno da postoji i nesigurnost o tome koliko loši će biti ovi učinci,
02:51
but they will be extremely bad.
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ali biti će ekstremno loši.
02:54
I asked the top scientists on this several times:
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Nekoliko puta sam pitao vrhunske znanstvenike,
02:56
Do we really have to get down to near zero?
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trebamo li zbilja ići dolje do oko nulte emisije?
02:59
Can't we just cut it in half or a quarter?
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Ne možemo li ju samo smanjiti na polovicu ili na četvrtinu?
03:02
And the answer is that until we get near to zero,
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A odgovor je bio, dok ne dođemo oko nule,
03:06
the temperature will continue to rise.
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temperature će nastaviti rasti.
03:08
And so that's a big challenge.
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I to je taj veliki izazov.
03:10
It's very different than saying "We're a twelve-foot-high truck trying to get under a ten-foot bridge,
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Nije da smo 4 m visok kamion koji pokušava proći ispod 3.5 m visokog mosta
03:15
and we can just sort of squeeze under."
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pa se možemo takoreći provući ispod.
03:18
This is something that has to get to zero.
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Ovo je nešto što mora doći do nule.
03:22
Now, we put out a lot of carbon dioxide every year,
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E sad, mi svake godine ispuštamo mnogo ugljičnog dioksida,
03:26
over 26 billion tons.
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preko 26 milijardi tona.
03:28
For each American, it's about 20 tons;
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To je oko 20 tona po svakom Amerikancu.
03:32
for people in poor countries, it's less than one ton.
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Za ljude u siromašnim zemljama taj broj iznosi manje od 1 tone.
03:35
It's an average of about five tons for everyone on the planet.
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U prosjeku to iznosi oko 5 tona po svakoj osobi na planetu.
03:39
And, somehow, we have to make changes
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Nekako moramo napraviti promjene
03:41
that will bring that down to zero.
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koje će to smanjiti na nulu.
03:44
It's been constantly going up.
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Emisija danas stalno raste.
03:46
It's only various economic changes that have even flattened it at all,
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Samo su ju razne ekonomske promjene uspjele malo usporiti,
03:51
so we have to go from rapidly rising
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tako da moramo doći od naglog rasta
03:54
to falling, and falling all the way to zero.
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do pada, i to pada sve do nule.
03:57
This equation has four factors,
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Ta jednadžba ima četiri faktora.
03:59
a little bit of multiplication:
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I malo množenja.
04:01
So, you've got a thing on the left, CO2, that you want to get to zero,
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Znači, na lijevoj strani imamo CO2 kojeg želimo dovesti do nule
04:04
and that's going to be based on the number of people,
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i koji ovisi o broju ljudi,
04:08
the services each person's using on average,
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uslugama koje svaka osoba prosječno koristi,
04:11
the energy on average for each service,
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prosječnoj energiji po usluzi,
04:14
and the CO2 being put out per unit of energy.
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i količini CO2 koja se ispušta po jedinici energije.
04:18
So, let's look at each one of these
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Idemo pogledati svaki od ovih faktora
04:20
and see how we can get this down to zero.
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da vidimo kako ih možemo dovesti do nule.
04:24
Probably, one of these numbers is going to have to get pretty near to zero.
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Vjerojatno će jedan od ovih brojeva trebati doći poprilično blizu nuli.
04:28
Now that's back from high school algebra,
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Znam da je to matematika još iz srednje škole,
04:31
but let's take a look.
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ali pogledajmo.
04:33
First, we've got population.
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Za početak imamo stanovništvo
04:35
The world today has 6.8 billion people.
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Danas svijet ima 6.8 milijardi ljudi.
04:38
That's headed up to about nine billion.
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Predviđa se da će taj broj rasti do negdje oko 9 milijardi.
04:40
Now, if we do a really great job on new vaccines,
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E sad, ako napravimo dobar posao sa novim cjepivima,
04:44
health care, reproductive health services,
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zdravstvenom skrbi, poboljšanjem reproduktivnog zdravlja,
04:46
we could lower that by, perhaps, 10 or 15 percent,
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mogli bi smanjiti taj broj za možda 10 ili 15 posto,
04:50
but there we see an increase of about 1.3.
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ali ipak vidimo porast od oko 1.3.
04:54
The second factor is the services we use.
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Drugi faktor su usluge koje koristimo.
04:57
This encompasses everything:
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Ovo obuhvaća sve,
04:59
the food we eat, clothing, TV, heating.
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hranu koju jedemo, odjeću, televiziju, grijanje.
05:03
These are very good things:
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To su sve jako dobre stvari,
05:06
getting rid of poverty means providing these services
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a rješiti se siromaštva znači omogućiti ove usluge
05:09
to almost everyone on the planet.
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gotovo svima na planetu.
05:11
And it's a great thing for this number to go up.
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Zato je odlična stvar podizanje ove vrijednosti.
05:15
In the rich world, perhaps the top one billion,
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U bogatom svijetu, možda u najvišoj milijardi,
05:17
we probably could cut back and use less,
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vjerovatno možemo nešto srezati i koristiti manje,
05:19
but every year, this number, on average, is going to go up,
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ali svake godine će ovaj broj, u prosjeku, rasti,
05:23
and so, over all, that will more than double
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i tako će se, na kraju svega više nego udvostručiti
05:27
the services delivered per person.
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usluge dostupne po osobi.
05:30
Here we have a very basic service:
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Ovdje imamo jednu osnovnu uslugu.
05:32
Do you have lighting in your house to be able to read your homework?
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Imate li struju u Vašoj kući da možete raditi svoju domaću zadaću,
05:35
And, in fact, these kids don't, so they're going out
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ova djeca je nemaju, pa idu vani
05:37
and reading their school work under the street lamps.
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i pišu svoje školske zadaće pod uličnim lampama.
05:42
Now, efficiency, E, the energy for each service,
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Znači učinkovitost, E, energija po svakoj usluzi,
05:46
here finally we have some good news.
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ovdje napokon imamo neke dobre vijesti.
05:48
We have something that's not going up.
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Ovdje imamo nešto što neće rasti.
05:50
Through various inventions and new ways of doing lighting,
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Kroz razne izume i druge načine za poboljšanje rasvjete,
05:53
through different types of cars, different ways of building buildings --
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kroz drugačije tipove automobila, druge načine gradnje zgrada.
05:58
there are a lot of services where you can bring
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Postoje mnoge usluge gdje se može
06:01
the energy for that service down quite substantially.
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prilično smanjiti energija za nju,
06:05
Some individual services even bring it down by 90 percent.
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u nekim slučajevima je čak spustiti za 90 posto.
06:08
There are other services like how we make fertilizer,
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Postoje druge stvari, na primjer način na koji radimo gnojivo,
06:11
or how we do air transport,
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ili kako provodimo zračni transport,
06:13
where the rooms for improvement are far, far less.
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gdje je prostor za poboljšanje puno, puno manji.
06:17
And so, overall here, if we're optimistic,
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I tako, ukupno gledajući, ako smo optimistični
06:19
we may get a reduction of a factor of three to even, perhaps, a factor of six.
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možemo postići smanjenje tri do čak šest puta.
06:26
But for these first three factors now,
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Ali za ova tri prva čimbenika,
06:29
we've gone from 26 billion to, at best, maybe 13 billion tons,
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otišli smo od 26 milijardi do, u najboljem slučaju, 13 milijardi tona,
06:34
and that just won't cut it.
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i to jednostavno neće proći.
06:36
So let's look at this fourth factor --
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Pogledajmo, znači, ovaj četvrti čimbenik-
06:38
this is going to be a key one --
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on će biti ključan-
06:40
and this is the amount of CO2 put out per each unit of energy.
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a to je količina CO2 ispuštena po svakoj jedinici energije.
06:46
And so the question is: Can you actually get that to zero?
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Pitanje je, na kraju, možemo li zaista spustiti to na nulu?
06:50
If you burn coal, no.
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Ako izgaramo ugljen, ne.
06:52
If you burn natural gas, no.
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Ako izgaramo prirodni plin, ne.
06:54
Almost every way we make electricity today,
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Gotovo svaki način na koji danas proizvodimo električnu energiju,
06:57
except for the emerging renewables and nuclear, puts out CO2.
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izuzev nuklearnih i rastućih obnovljivih izvora, ispušta CO2.
07:03
And so, what we're going to have to do at a global scale,
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Znači da ćemo na globalnoj razini
07:06
is create a new system.
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morati stvoriti novi sustav.
07:09
And so, we need energy miracles.
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I tako, trebaju nam energetska čuda.
07:11
Now, when I use the term "miracle," I don't mean something that's impossible.
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Ipak, kada koristim izraz "čudo", ne mislim na nešto nemoguće.
07:15
The microprocessor is a miracle. The personal computer is a miracle.
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Mikroprocesor je čudo. Osobno računalo je čudo.
07:20
The Internet and its services are a miracle.
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Internet i njegovi servisi su čudo.
07:23
So, the people here have participated in the creation of many miracles.
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Ljudi ovdje sudjelovali su u stvaranju mnogih čuda.
07:28
Usually, we don't have a deadline,
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Obično nemamo rok
07:30
where you have to get the miracle by a certain date.
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na način da moramo smisliti čudo do nekog određenog datuma.
07:32
Usually, you just kind of stand by, and some come along, some don't.
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Obično samo čekate i neka dođu, a neka ne.
07:36
This is a case where we actually have to drive at full speed
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Ovo je slučaj kada zapravo moramo ići punom brzinom
07:40
and get a miracle in a pretty tight timeline.
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i doći do čuda u prilično kratkom vremenskom roku.
07:45
Now, I thought, "How could I really capture this?
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I tako sam pomislio, kako to zbilja možemo postići?
07:48
Is there some kind of natural illustration,
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Postoji li neka vrsta prirodne slike,
07:50
some demonstration that would grab people's imagination here?"
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neka demonstracija koja bi zaokupila ljudsku maštu?
07:55
I thought back to a year ago when I brought mosquitos,
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Otišao sam u mislima prije godinu dana, kada sam donio komarce,
07:59
and somehow people enjoyed that.
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i ljudi su na neki način uživali u tome.
08:01
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
08:03
It really got them involved in the idea of,
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To ih je zbilja unijelo u ideju da,
08:06
you know, there are people who live with mosquitos.
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znate, zbilja postoje ljudi koji žive s komarcima.
08:09
So, with energy, all I could come up with is this.
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Što se tiče energije, sve što sam mogao smisliti je ovo.
08:14
I decided that releasing fireflies
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Odlučio sam da će puštanje krijesnica
08:17
would be my contribution to the environment here this year.
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biti moj doprinos okolišu ove godine.
08:21
So here we have some natural fireflies.
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Ovdje imamo prirodne krijesnice
08:24
I'm told they don't bite; in fact, they might not even leave that jar.
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Rečeno mi je da ne grizu, u stvari mogle bi čak i ostati u staklenci.
08:27
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
08:30
Now, there's all sorts of gimmicky solutions like that one,
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Danas postoji velik broj ovakvih varljivih rješenja,
08:35
but they don't really add up to much.
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ali oni zbilja ne pomažu puno.
08:37
We need solutions -- either one or several --
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Nama trebaju rješenja, jedno ili više njih,
08:41
that have unbelievable scale
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koja imaju nevjerovatnu veličinu
08:45
and unbelievable reliability,
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i nevjerovatnu pouzdanost.
08:47
and, although there's many directions people are seeking,
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i, unatoč tome što ljudi tragaju u mnogim smjerovima,
08:50
I really only see five that can achieve the big numbers.
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ja vidim samo pet smjerova koji mogu postići ovako velike brojeve.
08:54
I've left out tide, geothermal, fusion, biofuels.
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Izostavio sam energiju plime, geotermalnu energiju, fuziju i biogoriva.
08:59
Those may make some contribution,
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Oni možda mogu dati neki doprinos,
09:01
and if they can do better than I expect, so much the better,
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i ako budu bolji od mojih očekivanja, tim bolje,
09:03
but my key point here
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ali moja je poanta
09:05
is that we're going to have to work on each of these five,
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u tome da ćemo morati raditi na svakom od ovih pet,
09:09
and we can't give up any of them because they look daunting,
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i ne možemo odustati od bilo kojeg od njih jer izgleda obeshrabrujuće,
09:13
because they all have significant challenges.
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jer svi oni imaju značajne izazove.
09:17
Let's look first at the burning fossil fuels,
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Pogledajmo prvo izgaranje fosilnih goriva,
09:19
either burning coal or burning natural gas.
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bilo da ložimo ugljen ili prirodni plin.
09:23
What you need to do there, seems like it might be simple, but it's not,
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Ono što trebate učiniti ovdje, čini se jednostavno, ali nije,
09:26
and that's to take all the CO2, after you've burned it, going out the flue,
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je uzeti sav CO2 ispusten nakon izgaranja,
09:32
pressurize it, create a liquid, put it somewhere,
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stlačiti ga, pretvoriti u tekućinu, spremiti ga negdje
09:35
and hope it stays there.
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i nadati se da će ostati ondje.
09:37
Now we have some pilot things that do this at the 60 to 80 percent level,
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Danas imamo neke pilot projekte koji čine ovo do 60 ili 80 posto,
09:41
but getting up to that full percentage, that will be very tricky,
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ali podizanje toga na puni postotak, to će biti jako zeznuto,
09:45
and agreeing on where these CO2 quantities should be put will be hard,
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i dogovaranje o tome gdje bi te količine CO2 trebale biti smještene biti će teško,
09:51
but the toughest one here is this long-term issue.
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ali najteži dio ovdje je dugoročni problem.
09:54
Who's going to be sure?
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Tko će biti siguran?
09:56
Who's going to guarantee something that is literally billions of times larger
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Tko će garantirati za nešto što je doslovno milijardu puta veće
10:00
than any type of waste you think of in terms of nuclear or other things?
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nego bilo koji tip otpada na koji mislite kad govorite o nuklearnom i drugom otpadu?
10:04
This is a lot of volume.
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To je veliki obujam.
10:07
So that's a tough one.
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Znači to je težak problem.
10:09
Next would be nuclear.
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Sljedeća bi bila nuklearna energija.
10:11
It also has three big problems:
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Ona također ima tri velika problema.
10:14
Cost, particularly in highly regulated countries, is high;
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Cijena, osobito u zemljama sa strogo uređenim pravilima, je velika.
10:18
the issue of the safety, really feeling good about nothing could go wrong,
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Pitanje sigurnosti, da se zbilja osjećamo dobro i da ništa ne može poći krivo,
10:22
that, even though you have these human operators,
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da, čak i ako imamo ove ljudske operatore,
10:25
that the fuel doesn't get used for weapons.
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da gorivo ne bude iskorišteno kao oružje.
10:28
And then what do you do with the waste?
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I na kraju, što uraditi sa otpadom?
10:30
And, although it's not very large, there are a lot of concerns about that.
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i, iako to nisu velike količine, postoji velika zabrinutost oko toga.
10:33
People need to feel good about it.
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Ljudi se trebaju osjećati dobro u vezi toga.
10:35
So three very tough problems that might be solvable,
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Znači tri veoma teška problema koja mogu biti rješiva,
10:40
and so, should be worked on.
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i zato bi se trebalo raditi na njima.
10:42
The last three of the five, I've grouped together.
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Grupirao sam zajedno, ovo zadnje troje od pet.
10:45
These are what people often refer to as the renewable sources.
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Ovo je ono što ljudi često spominju kao obnovljive izvore.
10:49
And they actually -- although it's great they don't require fuel --
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A oni zapravo-iako je odlično to što ne trebaju gorivo-
10:53
they have some disadvantages.
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oni imaju neke nedostatke.
10:55
One is that the density of energy gathered in these technologies
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Jedan je da je gustoća energije prikupljene ovim tehnologijama
11:01
is dramatically less than a power plant.
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dramatično manja nego ona elektrane.
11:03
This is energy farming, so you're talking about many square miles,
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Ovo je tzv."energy farming", govorimo o mnogo četvornih milja,
11:07
thousands of time more area than you think of as a normal energy plant.
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područja tisuću puta većem od onoga o čemu mislite kao o normalnoj elektrani.
11:12
Also, these are intermittent sources.
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Također, ovi izvori su nepredvidivi.
11:15
The sun doesn't shine all day, it doesn't shine every day,
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Sunce ne sjaji cijeli dan, i ne sjaji svaki dan,
11:18
and, likewise, the wind doesn't blow all the time.
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i, slično, vjetar ne puše cijelo vrijeme.
11:21
And so, if you depend on these sources,
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I tako, ako ovisite o ovim izvorima,
11:23
you have to have some way of getting the energy
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morate imati neki način dobivanja energije
11:26
during those time periods that it's not available.
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tijekom tih perioda u kojima nije dostupna.
11:29
So, we've got big cost challenges here,
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Znači, ovdje imamo velike izazove glede cijene.
11:32
we have transmission challenges:
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Imamo izazove u prijenosu energije.
11:34
for example, say this energy source is outside your country;
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Na primjer, recimo da je taj izvor energije izvan vaše zemlje,
11:37
you not only need the technology,
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onda vam ne treba samo tehnologija,
11:39
but you have to deal with the risk of the energy coming from elsewhere.
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nego se morate nositi sa rizikom zbog energije koja dolazi izvana.
11:44
And, finally, this storage problem.
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I na kraju, problem skladištenja.
11:46
And, to dimensionalize this, I went through and looked at
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Da vam prikažem ovo, prošao sam i pogledao
11:49
all the types of batteries that get made --
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sve vrste baterija koje proizvodimo,
11:52
for cars, for computers, for phones, for flashlights, for everything --
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za automobile, za računala, za mobitele, za baterijske svjetiljke, za sve;
11:56
and compared that to the amount of electrical energy the world uses,
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usporedio sam to sa količinom električne energije koju svijet koristi
12:01
and what I found is that all the batteries we make now
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i shvatio sam da sve baterije koje sada proizvodimo
12:05
could store less than 10 minutes of all the energy.
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mogu spremiti manje od 10 minuta te energije.
12:09
And so, in fact, we need a big breakthrough here,
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I tako, zapravo, trebamo veliko otkriće u ovom području,
12:12
something that's going to be a factor of 100 better
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nešto što će biti sto puta bolje
12:16
than the approaches we have now.
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nego pristup koji danas imamo.
12:18
It's not impossible, but it's not a very easy thing.
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To nije nemoguće, ali nije tako jednostavno.
12:22
Now, this shows up when you try to get the intermittent source
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Ovo se javlja kad probate upotrijebiti nepredvidive izore
12:26
to be above, say, 20 to 30 percent of what you're using.
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da budu, recimo, 20 ili 30 posto onoga što koristite.
12:30
If you're counting on it for 100 percent,
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Ako računate na njih za sto posto,
12:32
you need an incredible miracle battery.
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trebate nevjerojatnu čudesnu bateriju.
12:38
Now, how we're going to go forward on this -- what's the right approach?
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Znači, kako ćemo ići dalje; koji je pravi pristup?
12:41
Is it a Manhattan Project? What's the thing that can get us there?
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Je li to Manhattan project? Što je to što nas može odvesti tamo?
12:45
Well, we need lots of companies working on this, hundreds.
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Pa, trebamo mnogo kompanija koje će raditi na ovome, stotine.
12:50
In each of these five paths, we need at least a hundred people.
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Za svaki od ovih pet pristupa trebamo barem sto ljudi.
12:53
And a lot of them, you'll look at and say, "They're crazy." That's good.
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I za mnogo njih, pogledat ćete ih i reći da su ludi. To je dobro.
12:57
And, I think, here in the TED group,
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Ja mislim da, ovdje u TED grupi,
13:00
we have many people who are already pursuing this.
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imamo mnogo ljudi koji veće teže ovome.
13:04
Bill Gross has several companies, including one called eSolar
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Bill Gross ima nekoliko tvrtki, uključujući jednu zvanu eSolar
13:08
that has some great solar thermal technologies.
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koja ima odlične solarno-termalne tehnologije.
13:10
Vinod Khosla's investing in dozens of companies
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Vinod Khosla ulaže u desetke kompanija
13:14
that are doing great things and have interesting possibilities,
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koje rade velike stvari i imaju zanimljive mogućnosti,
13:18
and I'm trying to help back that.
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i pokušavam podržati to.
13:20
Nathan Myhrvold and I actually are backing a company
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Nathan Myhrvold i ja zapravo podržavamo kompaniju
13:24
that, perhaps surprisingly, is actually taking the nuclear approach.
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koja, možda iznenađujuće, ide na nuklearni pristup.
13:28
There are some innovations in nuclear: modular, liquid.
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Postoje neke inovacije na polju nuklearne energije: na primjer modularna, tekuća .
13:32
And innovation really stopped in this industry quite some ago,
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A inovacije u ovoj industriji stale su prije dosta vremena,
13:36
so the idea that there's some good ideas laying around is not all that surprising.
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tako da ideja da neke dobre ideje leže okolo i nije toliko iznenađujuća.
13:41
The idea of TerraPower is that, instead of burning a part of uranium --
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Ideja iz Terrapower-a je da, umjesto da izgaramo dio urana,
13:47
the one percent, which is the U235 --
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onaj jedan posto koji je U235,
13:50
we decided, "Let's burn the 99 percent, the U238."
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odlučili smo, idemo izgarati 99 posto, uran 238.
13:55
It is kind of a crazy idea.
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To je pomalo luda ideja.
13:57
In fact, people had talked about it for a long time,
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U stvari, ljudi pričaju o tome već dugo vremena,
14:00
but they could never simulate properly whether it would work or not,
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ali nikad nisu mogli točno simulirati bi li to radilo ili ne,
14:04
and so it's through the advent of modern supercomputers
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i tako se kroz uspon modernih superračunala
14:07
that now you can simulate and see that, yes,
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sada to može simulirati i vidjeti da bi,
14:09
with the right material's approach, this looks like it would work.
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sa pravim materijalima i pristupom, ova ideja izgleda radila.
14:15
And, because you're burning that 99 percent,
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I zbog toga što izgarate tih 99 posto,
14:18
you have greatly improved cost profile.
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značajno ste poboljšali cijenu.
14:22
You actually burn up the waste, and you can actually use as fuel
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Zapravo izgarate otpad, i možete koristiti kao gorivo
14:26
all the leftover waste from today's reactors.
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sve ostatke iz današnjih reaktora.
14:29
So, instead of worrying about them, you just take that. It's a great thing.
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I tako, umjesto da se brinete zbog toga, koristite ga. To je odlična stvar.
14:34
It breathes this uranium as it goes along, so it's kind of like a candle.
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Udiše ovaj uran dok djeluje. Kao neka vrsta svijeće.
14:38
You can see it's a log there, often referred to as a traveling wave reactor.
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Možete vidjeti ovaj valjak ovdje, često se spominje kao reaktor putujućih valova.
14:42
In terms of fuel, this really solves the problem.
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Ako govorimo o gorivu, ovo zbilja rješava problem.
14:46
I've got a picture here of a place in Kentucky.
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Ovdje imam sliku mjesta u Kentuckyu.
14:49
This is the leftover, the 99 percent,
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Ovo je ostatak goriva, 99 posto,
14:51
where they've taken out the part they burn now,
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iz kojeg su izvukli dio koji danas troše,
14:53
so it's called depleted uranium.
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pa se zove osiromašeni uran.
14:55
That would power the U.S. for hundreds of years.
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Ovo bi pokretalo SAD stotinama godina.
14:58
And, simply by filtering seawater in an inexpensive process,
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I samo kroz filtriranje morske vode u jeftinom postupku,
15:01
you'd have enough fuel for the entire lifetime of the rest of the planet.
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dobili biste dovoljno goriva za cijeli preostali vijek planeta.
15:06
So, you know, it's got lots of challenges ahead,
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Znate, ovo ima mnoge izazove pred sobom,
15:10
but it is an example of the many hundreds and hundreds of ideas
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ali je primjer mnogih stotina i stotina ideja
15:15
that we need to move forward.
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koje trebamo da krenemo naprijed.
15:18
So let's think: How should we measure ourselves?
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Razmislimo, kako da se ocjenimo?
15:21
What should our report card look like?
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Kako bi naš izvještaj trebao izgledati?
15:24
Well, let's go out to where we really need to get,
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Dođimo do te točke do koje trebamo doći
15:27
and then look at the intermediate.
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i onda pogledajmo sredinu.
15:29
For 2050, you've heard many people talk about this 80 percent reduction.
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Čuli ste mnoge ljude kako govore o tom 80% smanjenju do 2050.
15:34
That really is very important, that we get there.
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To je zbilja važno, da dođemo do toga.
15:38
And that 20 percent will be used up by things going on in poor countries,
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A onih 20 posto biti će korišteno za zbivanja u siromašnim zemljama
15:42
still some agriculture,
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i nešto zemljoradnje.
15:44
hopefully we will have cleaned up forestry, cement.
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Nadamo se da ćemo do tada rješiti problem šumarstva, cementa.
15:48
So, to get to that 80 percent,
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Znači, da bi došli do tih 80 posto,
15:51
the developed countries, including countries like China,
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razvijene zemlje, uključujući i zemlje poput Kine,
15:55
will have had to switch their electricity generation altogether.
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će morati promijeniti svoju cjelokupnu električnu generaciju.
16:00
So, the other grade is: Are we deploying this zero-emission technology,
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Druga stvar je razvijamo li mi tu tehnologiju nulte emisije,
16:06
have we deployed it in all the developed countries
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jesmo li je razvili u svim razvijenim zemljama
16:08
and we're in the process of getting it elsewhere?
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i jesmo li u procesu širenja te tehnologije.
16:11
That's super important.
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To je jako važno.
16:13
That's a key element of making that report card.
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To je ključni element u izradi tog izvještaja.
16:17
So, backing up from there, what should the 2020 report card look like?
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Znači, da se vratimo natrag, kako bi izvještaj iz 2020. trebao izgledati?
16:22
Well, again, it should have the two elements.
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On bi, također, trebao imati dva elementa.
16:24
We should go through these efficiency measures to start getting reductions:
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Trebali bismo proći kroz mjere učinkovitosti da dođemo do ušteda.
16:28
The less we emit, the less that sum will be of CO2,
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Što manje ispuštamo, manja će biti količina CO2,
16:31
and, therefore, the less the temperature.
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i, uslijed toga, temperatura će biti niža.
16:33
But in some ways, the grade we get there,
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Ali na neki način, ocjena koju dobijemo ovdje,
16:36
doing things that don't get us all the way to the big reductions,
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čineći stvari koje nas ne dovode do konačne velike uštede,
16:40
is only equally, or maybe even slightly less, important than the other,
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je jednako, ili čak i malo manje važna, od druge ocjene,
16:44
which is the piece of innovation on these breakthroughs.
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one za inovacije koje će postići napredak.
16:48
These breakthroughs, we need to move those at full speed,
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Trebamo taj napredak da krenemo punom brzinom,
16:51
and we can measure that in terms of companies,
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a to možemo mjeriti u broju kompanija,
16:54
pilot projects, regulatory things that have been changed.
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novih projekata, regulacija koje su se promjenile.
16:57
There's a lot of great books that have been written about this.
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Mnoge su sjajne knjige napisane o ovome.
17:00
The Al Gore book, "Our Choice"
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Al Gore - "Our choice" ("Naš izbor")
17:03
and the David McKay book, "Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air."
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knjiga Davida McKaya "Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air" ("Održiva energija - bez brbljanja")
17:06
They really go through it and create a framework
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One zbilja ulaze u taj problem i kreiraju okvir
17:09
that this can be discussed broadly,
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o tome da možemo govoriti o ovome u širokim krugovima,
17:11
because we need broad backing for this.
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jer nam za ovo treba velika potpora.
17:14
There's a lot that has to come together.
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Mnoge se stvari moraju posložiti.
17:16
So this is a wish.
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Tako da je ovo želja.
17:18
It's a very concrete wish that we invent this technology.
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Veome stvarna želja je da izumimo ovu tehnologiju.
17:22
If you gave me only one wish for the next 50 years --
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Da imam samo jednu želju za sljedećih 50 godina,
17:25
I could pick who's president,
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mogu izabrati tko će biti predsjednik,
17:27
I could pick a vaccine, which is something I love,
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mogu izabrati cjepiva, a to je nešto što volim,
17:30
or I could pick that this thing
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ili mogu izabrati da ova stvar,
17:32
that's half the cost with no CO2 gets invented --
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a to je smanjenje cijene energije za pola bez izbacivanja CO2, bude izmišljena,
17:36
this is the wish I would pick.
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to je želja koju bih odabrao.
17:38
This is the one with the greatest impact.
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To je želja sa najvećim utjecajem.
17:40
If we don't get this wish,
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Ako ne dobijemo ovu želju
17:42
the division between the people who think short term and long term will be terrible,
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rascjep između ljudi koji misle na duge i kratke staze biti će strašan,
17:46
between the U.S. and China, between poor countries and rich,
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između SAD-a i Kine, između bogatih i siromašnih zemalja,
17:49
and most of all the lives of those two billion will be far worse.
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a najgore je da će život one najsiromašnije dvije milijarde biti značajno lošiji.
17:54
So, what do we have to do?
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Onda, što trebamo učiniti?
17:56
What am I appealing to you to step forward and drive?
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Što vam nudim da istupite i pokrenete se?
18:01
We need to go for more research funding.
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Treba nam više novca za financiranje istraživanja.
18:04
When countries get together in places like Copenhagen,
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Kada se zemlje skupe na skupovima poput Kopenhagena
18:06
they shouldn't just discuss the CO2.
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ne bi trebali raspravljati samo o CO2.
18:09
They should discuss this innovation agenda,
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Trebali bi raspravljati o ovom inovativnom pokretu,
18:11
and you'd be stunned at the ridiculously low levels of spending
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a bili biste zapanjeni koliko je smješno mala potrošnja
18:16
on these innovative approaches.
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na ove inovativne pristupe.
18:18
We do need the market incentives -- CO2 tax, cap and trade --
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Trebamo burzovne poticaje, poreze na CO2, ograničenja i trgovinu,
18:22
something that gets that price signal out there.
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nešto što će pokazati tu cijenu uspjeha.
18:25
We need to get the message out.
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Trebamo proširiti poruku.
18:27
We need to have this dialogue be a more rational, more understandable dialogue,
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Potreban nam je racionalniji dijalog, dijalog koji se lakše razumije,
18:30
including the steps that the government takes.
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uključujući i korake koje poduzima vlada.
18:33
This is an important wish, but it is one I think we can achieve.
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To je važna želja, ali mislim da je to želja koju možemo ispuniti.
18:37
Thank you.
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Hvala Vam.
18:39
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
18:50
Thank you.
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Hvala Vam.
18:52
Chris Anderson: Thank you. Thank you.
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Chris Anderson: Hvala. Hvala.
18:54
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
18:59
Thank you. So to understand more about TerraPower, right --
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Hvala ti. Samo da malo bolje shvatim ovaj Terrapower projekt, znači -
19:05
I mean, first of all, can you give a sense of what scale of investment this is?
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Mislim, za početak, možeš li nam dati neku procjenu o veličini ove investicije?
19:10
Bil Gates: To actually do the software, buy the supercomputer,
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Bill Gates: Sam program, kupnja superračunala,
19:14
hire all the great scientists, which we've done,
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zapošljavanje svih sjajnih znanstvenika, što smo već učinili,
19:16
that's only tens of millions,
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to je samo desetak milijuna,
19:19
and even once we test our materials out in a Russian reactor
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i čak kad testiramo naš materijal u ruskom reaktoru
19:22
to make sure that our materials work properly,
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da se uvjerimo da radi ispravno,
19:26
then you'll only be up in the hundreds of millions.
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onda ćemo govoriti samo o stotinama milijuna.
19:28
The tough thing is building the pilot reactor;
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Težak dio je gradnja probnog reaktora,
19:31
finding the several billion, finding the regulator, the location
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prikupljanje nekoliko milijardi, traženje pravila, lokacije
19:36
that will actually build the first one of these.
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na kojoj će se zapravo izgraditi prvi takav reaktor
19:38
Once you get the first one built, if it works as advertised,
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Jednom kad se taj prvi izgradi, ako bude radio kao što je planirano,
19:42
then it's just clear as day, because the economics, the energy density,
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onda je sve jasno kao dan, jer su ekonomičnost i gustoća energije
19:46
are so different than nuclear as we know it.
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znatno drugačiji od onih nuklearki koje znamo.
19:48
CA: And so, to understand it right, this involves building deep into the ground
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CA: Znači, da vidim jesam li shvatio, to uključuje kopanje duboko u zemlju,
19:52
almost like a vertical kind of column of nuclear fuel,
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gotovo nešto kao okomiti stupac nuklearnog goriva,
19:56
of this sort of spent uranium,
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tog potrošenog i osiromašenog urana,
19:58
and then the process starts at the top and kind of works down?
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a potom postupak počinje na vrhu i napreduje prema dnu?
20:01
BG: That's right. Today, you're always refueling the reactor,
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BG: To je točno. Danas stalno punite reaktore,
20:04
so you have lots of people and lots of controls that can go wrong:
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tako da imate mnogo ljudi i mnogo stvari koje mogu poći krivo,
20:07
that thing where you're opening it up and moving things in and out,
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to kada otvarate reaktor i mičete stvari van i unutra.
20:10
that's not good.
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To nije dobro.
20:12
So, if you have very cheap fuel that you can put 60 years in --
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Tako da ako imate veoma jeftino gorivo koje možete staviti unutra na 60 godina -
20:17
just think of it as a log --
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mislite o tome kao o cjepanici -
20:19
put it down and not have those same complexities.
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stavite ga dolje i nemate svu tu složenost.
20:22
And it just sits there and burns for the 60 years, and then it's done.
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I ono samo tamo stoji i izgara šezdeset godina dok nije gotovo.
20:27
CA: It's a nuclear power plant that is its own waste disposal solution.
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CA: To je nukleana elektrana koja je svoje vlastitio rješenje za zbrinjavanje otpada.
20:31
BG: Yeah. Well, what happens with the waste,
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BG: Da. Mislim, što se događa s otpadom,
20:33
you can let it sit there -- there's a lot less waste under this approach --
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možete ga pustiti da stoji tamo - mnogo je manje otpada na ovakav način -
20:38
then you can actually take that,
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onda zapravo možete uzeti to
20:40
and put it into another one and burn that.
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i staviti ga u drugi reaktor i iskoristiti.
20:43
And we start off actually by taking the waste that exists today,
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A počinjemo zapravo uzimajući otpad koji postoji danas,
20:47
that's sitting in these cooling pools or dry casking by reactors --
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koji je u tim bazenima za hlađenje ili suhim skladištima uz reaktore.
20:51
that's our fuel to begin with.
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To je gorivo s kojim počinjemo.
20:53
So, the thing that's been a problem from those reactors
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Znači stvar koja je bila problem tih reaktora
20:56
is actually what gets fed into ours,
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je ono što zapravo pogoni naše,
20:58
and you're reducing the volume of the waste quite dramatically
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i prilično dramatično smanjujete količinu otpada
21:01
as you're going through this process.
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kako prolazite kroz ovaj postupak.
21:03
CA: I mean, you're talking to different people around the world
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CA: U svojim razgovorima sa raznim ljudima diljem svijeta
21:05
about the possibilities here.
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o mogućnostima ovog postupka,
21:07
Where is there most interest in actually doing something with this?
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gdje su najviše zainteresirani da stvarno naprave nešto ovakvo?
21:10
BG: Well, we haven't picked a particular place,
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BG: Pa, nismo izabrali određeno mjesto,
21:13
and there's all these interesting disclosure rules about anything that's called "nuclear,"
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a tu su i sva ta zanimljiva pravila o razotkrivanju svega što se naziva nuklearnim,
21:21
so we've got a lot of interest,
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tako da imamo mnogo interesa,
21:23
that people from the company have been in Russia, India, China --
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ljudi iz tvrtke bili su u Rusiji, Indiji i Kini.
21:27
I've been back seeing the secretary of energy here,
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Bio sam kod ovdašnjeg tajnika za energiju,
21:29
talking about how this fits into the energy agenda.
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govoreći o tome kako se ovo uklapa u energetsku politiku.
21:33
So I'm optimistic. You know, the French and Japanese have done some work.
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Tako da sam optimističan. Znate da su Francuzi i Japanci napravili nešto posla.
21:36
This is a variant on something that has been done.
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To je varijanta za nešto što je već napravljeno.
21:40
It's an important advance, but it's like a fast reactor,
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To je važan napredak, ali je poput brzog reaktora,
21:44
and a lot of countries have built them,
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a mnoge zemlje su ih izgradile,
21:46
so anybody who's done a fast reactor is a candidate to be where the first one gets built.
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tako da je svatko tko je napravio brzi reaktor kandidat za gradnju prvog reaktora.
21:51
CA: So, in your mind, timescale and likelihood
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CA: Znači, po tvom mišljenju, vremenska skala i vjerojatnost
21:56
of actually taking something like this live?
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da se nešto ovakvo zbilja poduzme su dobre?
21:59
BG: Well, we need -- for one of these high-scale, electro-generation things
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BG: Pa, recimo, za jednog od tih naprednih elektro-generatora
22:04
that's very cheap,
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koji moraju biti veoma jeftini,
22:06
we have 20 years to invent and then 20 years to deploy.
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imamo 20 godina da ih izumimo i onda 20 godina da ih stavimo u upotrebu.
22:10
That's sort of the deadline that the environmental models
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To je neka vrsta krajnjeg roka koji su nam modeli okoliša
22:15
have shown us that we have to meet.
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pokazali da ih se moramo držati.
22:17
And, you know, TerraPower, if things go well -- which is wishing for a lot --
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I, znate, Terrapower, ako stvari prođu u najboljem redu, što svi jako želimo,
22:22
could easily meet that.
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bi lako mogao zadovoljiti taj rok.
22:24
And there are, fortunately now, dozens of companies --
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Danas, srećom, postoje deseci kompanija,
22:27
we need it to be hundreds --
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ali nama trebaju stotine kompanija,
22:29
who, likewise, if their science goes well,
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koje će se, također, ako njihove ideje prođu dobro,
22:31
if the funding for their pilot plants goes well,
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ako bude uspješnog financiranja njihovih probnih projekata,
22:34
that they can compete for this.
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moći natjecati u postizanju tog cilja.
22:36
And it's best if multiple succeed,
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Najbolje bi bilo ako više njih uspije,
22:38
because then you could use a mix of these things.
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zato jer onda možete koristiti mješavinu svih tih stvari.
22:41
We certainly need one to succeed.
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Definitivno nam treba jedna koja će uspjeti.
22:43
CA: In terms of big-scale possible game changes,
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CA: Ako govorimo o velikoj promjeni u "načinu igre",
22:46
is this the biggest that you're aware of out there?
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je li ovo najveća moguća koja postoji, a za koju Vi znate?
22:49
BG: An energy breakthrough is the most important thing.
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BG: Veliki napredak u energetici je najvažnija stvar.
22:53
It would have been, even without the environmental constraint,
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Bilo bi tako i bez ekoloških problema,
22:55
but the environmental constraint just makes it so much greater.
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ali ekološki problemi samo uvećavaju njegov značaj.
23:00
In the nuclear space, there are other innovators.
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Postoje i druge inovacije, ako govorimo o nuklearnoj energiji.
23:03
You know, we don't know their work as well as we know this one,
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Znate, ne znamo njihov rad tako dobro kao ovaj ovdje,
23:06
but the modular people, that's a different approach.
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ali modularni tip reaktora, to je drugačiji pristup.
23:09
There's a liquid-type reactor, which seems a little hard,
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Postoji i tekući tip reaktora, koji se čini malo teži,
23:13
but maybe they say that about us.
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ali možda to oni govore za nas.
23:15
And so, there are different ones,
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I tako, postoje mnogi pristupi,
23:18
but the beauty of this is a molecule of uranium
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ali ljepota svega je u tome da molekula urana
23:21
has a million times as much energy as a molecule of, say, coal,
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ima milijun puta više energije nego recimo molekula ugljena,
23:25
and so -- if you can deal with the negatives,
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i na taj način, ako se možemo nositi sa negativnim stranama,
23:28
which are essentially the radiation --
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koje su u osnovi zračenje,
23:31
the footprint and cost, the potential,
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utjecaj na okoliš i cijena; potencijal
23:34
in terms of effect on land and various things,
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na razini učinka na okoliš i ostalim stvarima
23:36
is almost in a class of its own.
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jest gotovo klasa za sebe.
23:40
CA: If this doesn't work, then what?
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CA: A ako ovo ne bude radilo, što tada?
23:44
Do we have to start taking emergency measures
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Trebamo li početi sa izvanrednim mjerama
23:48
to try and keep the temperature of the earth stable?
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da pokušamo održati temperaturu Zemlje stabilnom?
23:51
BG: If you get into that situation,
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BG: Ako dođe do te situacije,
23:53
it's like if you've been over-eating, and you're about to have a heart attack:
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to je kao da ste se prežderavali i sada vam prijeti srčani udar.
23:58
Then where do you go? You may need heart surgery or something.
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Gdje onda idete? Tada trebate operaciju srca ili nešto drugo.
24:02
There is a line of research on what's called geoengineering,
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Postolji polje koje se zove geoinžinjering
24:06
which are various techniques that would delay the heating
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koje se sastoji od raznih tehnika koje bi odgodile zagrijavanje
24:09
to buy us 20 or 30 years to get our act together.
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te nam kupile 20 ili 30 godina da se saberemo.
24:12
Now, that's just an insurance policy.
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Ipak, to je tu samo za osiguranje.
24:14
You hope you don't need to do that.
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Nadamo se da to nećemo trebati koristiti.
24:16
Some people say you shouldn't even work on the insurance policy
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Neki ljudi govore da ne bi trebali uopće raditi na tom osiguranju
24:18
because it might make you lazy,
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jer nas može učiniti lijenima,
24:20
that you'll keep eating because you know heart surgery will be there to save you.
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na način da ćete nastaviti jesti jer znate da će vas operacija spasiti.
24:24
I'm not sure that's wise, given the importance of the problem,
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Nisam siguran koliko je to mudro ako uvidimo važnost problema,
24:27
but there's now the geoengineering discussion
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ali danas postoji rasprava među geoinžinjerima
24:31
about -- should that be in the back pocket in case things happen faster,
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o tome treba li ovaj pristup biti u pričuvi za slučaj da se stvari ubrzaju,
24:35
or this innovation goes a lot slower than we expect?
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ili će taj pristup ići mnogo sporije nego što mi očekujemo.
24:40
CA: Climate skeptics: If you had a sentence or two to say to them,
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CA: Skeptici u vezi klimatskih promjena: ako im možete reći rečenicu ili dvije,
24:45
how might you persuade them that they're wrong?
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kako bi ih mogli uvjeriti da su u krivu?
24:50
BG: Well, unfortunately, the skeptics come in different camps.
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BG: Nažalost, skeptici dolaze sa različitih strana.
24:54
The ones who make scientific arguments are very few.
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Vrlo je malo onih koji daju znanstvene argumente.
24:58
Are they saying that there's negative feedback effects
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Govore li oni da postoje negativni povratni efekti
25:01
that have to do with clouds that offset things?
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koji utječu na oblake i remete stvari?
25:03
There are very, very few things that they can even say
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Postoji malo, jako malo stvari za koje oni mogu uopće reći
25:06
there's a chance in a million of those things.
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da postoji jedan u milijun šansa da se dogode.
25:09
The main problem we have here, it's kind of like AIDS.
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Glavni problem koji imamo je nešto poput AIDS-a.
25:12
You make the mistake now, and you pay for it a lot later.
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Pogriješite danas i platite za to mnogo kasnije.
25:16
And so, when you have all sorts of urgent problems,
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I tako, kada govorimo o svim oblicima hitnih problema,
25:20
the idea of taking pain now that has to do with a gain later,
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ideja je prihvaćanje žrtve danas koja vodi do dobitka kasnije -
25:23
and a somewhat uncertain pain thing --
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još k tome i nesigurne žrtve.
25:26
in fact, the IPCC report, that's not necessarily the worst case,
449
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U stvari, u izvještaju Međuvladinog panela o klimatskim promjenama (IPCC) to nije najgora stvar,
25:32
and there are people in the rich world who look at IPCC
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i postoje ljudi u bogatom svijetu koji gledaju IPCC
25:34
and say, "OK, that isn't that big of a deal."
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i kažu, dobro, to nije tako velik problem.
25:38
The fact is it's that uncertain part that should move us towards this.
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Stvar je u tome da nas je ovaj nesigurni dio trebao gurati naprijed.
25:42
But my dream here is that, if you can make it economic,
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Ali moj san je da, ako ga možemo učiniti ekonomičnim,
25:45
and meet the CO2 constraints,
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i biti unutar ograničenja CO2,
25:47
then the skeptics say, "OK,
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skeptici će reći, u redu,
25:49
I don't care that it doesn't put out CO2,
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nije me briga što ne ispušta CO2,
25:51
I kind of wish it did put out CO2,
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čak bi i htio da ispušta CO2,
25:53
but I guess I'll accept it because it's cheaper than what's come before."
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ali mislim da ću ga prihvatiti jer je jeftiniji nego ono što je bilo prije.
25:57
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
26:01
CA: And so, that would be your response to the Bjorn Lomborg argument,
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CA: Znači to bi bio Vaš odgovor na izjavu Bjorna Lomborga
26:05
that basically if you spend all this energy trying to solve the CO2 problem,
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da ćete, ako ulažete sve svoje napore u pokušaje rješavanja poblema sa CO2,
26:09
it's going to take away all your other goals
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zaboraviti sve druge ciljeve
26:11
of trying to rid the world of poverty and malaria and so forth,
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poput iskorjenjivanja siromaštva, malarije i tako dalje;
26:14
it's a stupid waste of the Earth's resources to put money towards that
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te da je glup gubitak Zemljinih resursa ulagati novac u to
26:18
when there are better things we can do.
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kad postoje bolje stvari koje možemo učiniti.
26:20
BG: Well, the actual spending on the R&D piece --
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BG: Zapravo, trošak na istraživanje i razvoj -
26:23
say the U.S. should spend 10 billion a year more than it is right now --
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recimo da bi SAD trebale trošiti 10 milijardi na godinu više nego danas -
26:27
it's not that dramatic.
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to nije toliko dramatično.
26:29
It shouldn't take away from other things.
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Ne bi trebalo uzimati drugim stvarima.
26:31
The thing you get into big money on, and this, reasonable people can disagree,
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Stvar u koju ulažete mnogo novca, razumni ljudi se ne moraju složiti,
26:34
is when you have something that's non-economic and you're trying to fund that --
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je kada imate nešto što nije ekonomski isplativo i vi to pokušavate financirati.
26:37
that, to me, mostly is a waste.
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Po meni to je, ugalvnom, besmisleno.
26:40
Unless you're very close and you're just funding the learning curve
473
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Osim ako niste jako blizu rezultatu i financirate samo razvoj znanja
26:43
and it's going to get very cheap,
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koje će postati jeftinije.
26:45
I believe we should try more things that have a potential
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Vjerujem da trebamo iskušavati više stvari koje imaju potencijal
26:49
to be far less expensive.
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da budu daleko jeftinije.
26:51
If the trade-off you get into is, "Let's make energy super expensive,"
477
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Ako je razmjena u koju uđete - učinimo energiju super skupom,
26:56
then the rich can afford that.
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onda bogati to mogu priuštiti.
26:58
I mean, all of us here could pay five times as much for our energy
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To što želim reći je, svi mi mogli bi platiti pet puta više za našu energiju
27:01
and not change our lifestyle.
480
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i ne promijeniti naš stil života.
27:03
The disaster is for that two billion.
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Katastrofa je za one dvije milijarde.
27:05
And even Lomborg has changed.
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Čak se je i Lomborg promjenio.
27:07
His shtick now is, "Why isn't the R&D getting more discussed?"
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Sada je njegovo razmišljanje zašto se ne raspravlja više o istraživanju i razvoju.
27:12
He's still, because of his earlier stuff,
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Još je uvijek, zbog ranijih stvari,
27:14
still associated with the skeptic camp,
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povezan sa taborom skeptika,
27:16
but he's realized that's a pretty lonely camp,
486
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ali je shvatio da je to prilično osamljen kamp,
27:19
and so, he's making the R&D point.
487
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i zato govori o istraživanju i razvoju.
27:22
And so there is a thread of something that I think is appropriate.
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Mislim da tu ima nečega prikladnog.
27:27
The R&D piece, it's crazy how little it's funded.
489
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Istraživanje i razvoj, ludo je kako malo novca dobiva.
27:30
CA: Well Bill, I suspect I speak on the behalf of most people here
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CA: Bill, mislim da govorim u ime većine ljudi ovdje
27:33
to say I really hope your wish comes true. Thank you so much.
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kad kažem da se zbilja nadam da će se tvoja želja ostvariti. Hvala ti puno.
27:36
BG: Thank you.
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BG: Hvala vama.
27:38
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bill Gates - PhilanthropistA passionate techie and a shrewd businessman, Bill Gates changed the world while leading Microsoft to dizzying success. Now he's doing it again with his own style of philanthropy and passion for innovation.
Why you should listen
Bill Gates is the founder and former CEO of Microsoft. A geek icon, tech visionary and business trailblazer, Gates' leadership -- fueled by his long-held dream that millions might realize their potential through great software -- made Microsoft a personal computing powerhouse and a trendsetter in the Internet dawn. Whether you're a suit, chef, quant, artist, media maven, nurse or gamer, you've probably used a Microsoft product today.
In summer of 2008, Gates left his day-to-day role with Microsoft to focus on philanthropy. Holding that all lives have equal value (no matter where they're being lived), the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has now donated staggering sums to HIV/AIDS programs, libraries, agriculture research and disaster relief -- and offered vital guidance and creative funding to programs in global health and education. Gates believes his tech-centric strategy for giving will prove the killer app of planet Earth's next big upgrade.
Read a collection of Bill and Melinda Gates' annual letters, where they take stock of the Gates Foundation and the world. And follow his ongoing thinking on his personal website, The Gates Notes. His new paper, "The Next Epidemic," is published by the New England Journal of Medicine.
Bill Gates | Speaker | TED.com