TEDGlobal 2010
Stefan Wolff: The path to ending ethnic conflicts
斯蒂芬·沃尔夫：通向结束种族冲突的道路
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内战和种族纷争已经给全世界带来令人难以置信的苦难，而斯蒂芬·沃尔夫的研究表明，在过去的20年内，这类冲突发生的数量在稳步减少。他从北爱尔兰，利比亚，帝汶岛的冲突中得到：领导力，外交手腕和制度上的设计是三种最有效的捍卫和平的武器。
Stefan Wolff - Ethnic conflicts scholar
Stefan Wolff studies contemporary conflicts, focusing on the prevention and settlement of ethnic conflicts and in postconflict reconstruction in deeply divided and war-torn societies. Full bio
Stefan Wolff studies contemporary conflicts, focusing on the prevention and settlement of ethnic conflicts and in postconflict reconstruction in deeply divided and war-torn societies. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Today I want to talk to you
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今天我想同你们谈谈
00:17
about ethnic conflict
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种族冲突
00:19
and civil war.
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与内战
00:21
These are not normally the most cheerful of topics,
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它们大多不是让人开心的话题
00:24
nor do they generally generate
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也很少带来
00:26
the kind of good news
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令人高兴的好消息
00:28
that this conference is about.
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这就是今天的议题
00:31
Yet, not only is there at least some good news
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尽管如此，我们至少还有一些好消息
00:34
to be told about fewer such conflicts now
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和20年前相比
00:37
than two decades ago,
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这类冲突已经日趋减少
00:39
but what is perhaps more important
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但也许更重要的是
00:41
is that we also have come
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我们已经开始
00:43
to a much better understanding of what can be done
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更好的理解了可以做些什么
00:46
to further reduce the number
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来进一步减少
00:48
of ethnic conflicts and civil wars
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种族冲突和内战
00:51
and the suffering that they inflict.
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以及伴随而来的痛苦。
00:54
Three things stand out:
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主要有三点：
00:56
leadership, diplomacy
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领导力，外交手腕
00:59
and institutional design.
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和制度设计。
01:02
What I will focus on in my talk
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今天的演讲，我会重点谈谈
01:04
is why they matter, how they matter,
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这三点为什么重要，如何重要
01:07
and what we can all do
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已经我们可以做些什么
01:09
to make sure that they continue to matter
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来确保这三个重要因素
01:11
in the right ways,
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继续发挥真面影响力
01:13
that is, how all of us can contribute
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也就是谈谈，我们每一个人都可以怎样贡献
01:16
to developing and honing the skills
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来培育和打磨
01:19
of local and global leaders
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本地与世界领导人
01:22
to make peace
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和解并保持长治久安
01:24
and to make it last.
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的能力和技巧。
01:26
But let's start at the beginning.
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首先，让我们从头开始
01:29
Civil wars have made news headlines
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几十年里来
01:31
for many decades now,
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内战一直占据新闻头条的位置
01:33
and ethnic conflicts in particular
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尤其是种族冲突，
01:35
have been a near constant presence
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近期不断地作为
01:38
as a major international security threat.
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危害世界安全的主要威胁出现。
01:41
For nearly two decades now,
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过去20年来，
01:44
the news has been bad
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负面新闻不断
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and the images have been haunting.
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境况是令人困扰的。
01:49
In Georgia, after years of stalemate,
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在格鲁吉亚，经过多年的对峙之后，
01:52
we saw a full-scale resurgence of violence
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在2008年8月
01:55
in August, 2008.
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再度爆发全面的暴力冲突
01:57
This quickly escalated into a five-day war
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而且很快恶化为俄罗斯和格鲁吉亚之间的
02:00
between Russia and Georgia,
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五日战争
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leaving Georgia ever more divided.
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这令格鲁吉亚更加分崩离析
02:05
In Kenya, contested presidential elections in 2007 --
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在肯尼亚，2007年有争议的总统选举
02:08
we just heard about them --
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我们最近才听到这件事
02:11
quickly led to high levels
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立刻转变为严重的
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of inter-ethnic violence
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种族间的暴力冲突
02:15
and the killing and displacement
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成千上万的人
02:17
of thousands of people.
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遭到杀害，流离失所
02:19
In Sri Lanka,
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在斯里兰卡
02:21
a decades-long civil war
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持续了十年的
02:23
between the Tamil minority
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泰米尔少数民族与主要民族僧伽罗之间的
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and the Sinhala majority
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内战
02:27
led to a bloody climax in 2009,
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在2009年到达了血腥的顶点
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after perhaps as many as 100,000
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自1983年以来
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people had been killed
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已近有将近
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since 1983.
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十万人死于内战
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In Kyrgyzstan, just over the last few weeks,
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在吉尔吉斯斯坦，仅几个星期的功夫，
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unprecedented levels of violence occurred
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史无前例的暴力冲突发生
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between ethnic Kyrgyz
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于吉尔吉斯族
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and ethnic Uzbeks.
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和乌兹别克族之间。
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Hundreds have been killed,
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成百上千人死去
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and more than 100,000 displaced,
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十万余人流离失所，
02:51
including many ethnic Uzbeks
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其中包括诸多逃亡邻国乌兹别克斯坦的
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who fled to neighboring Uzbekistan.
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乌孜别克族人
02:56
In the Middle East,
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在中东地区
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conflict between Israelis and Palestinians
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以色列和巴勒斯坦间的冲突
03:01
continues unabated,
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持续不断
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and it becomes ever more difficult
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越来越难让人预见
03:05
to see how, just how
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怎么达成
03:08
a possible, sustainable solution
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一个两方接受，持续可行的
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can be achieved.
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和平解决方案。
03:13
Darfur may have slipped from the news headlines,
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达尔富尔可能已经从新闻头条中淡出了，
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but the killing and displacement there
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但那里的杀戮和流离失所
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continues as well,
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依然继续着
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and the sheer human misery that it creates
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而且这带给当地人的苦难
03:23
is very hard to fathom.
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远超你我的想象
03:25
And in Iraq, finally,
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最后，看看伊拉克，
03:27
violence is on the rise again,
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暴力又重新抬头
03:30
and the country has yet to form a government
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伊拉克四个月前
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four months after
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进行的国会选举
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its last parliamentary elections.
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直到目前仍未能形成执政政府。
03:40
But hang on, this talk is to be about the good news.
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但等等，这个演讲应该带来好消息的
03:43
So are these now the images of the past?
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所以说，以上提到的情形已经过去了吗？
03:47
Well, notwithstanding the gloomy pictures
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嗯，虽然悲惨的现状
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from the Middle East, Darfur,
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存在于中东，达尔富尔
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Iraq, elsewhere,
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伊拉克及其他地区
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there is a longer-term trend
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从长期来看
03:56
that does represent some good news.
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我们的确有好消息
03:59
Over the past two decades, since the end of the Cold War,
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自冷战后的20年来
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there has been an overall decline
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战争的次数
04:05
in the number of civil wars.
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总体来说是在减少的
04:07
Since the high in the early 1990s,
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在九十年代早期最高峰时
04:10
with about 50 such civil wars ongoing,
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大约有50场的内战
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we now have 30 percent fewer
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现在，冲突已经减少
04:15
such conflicts today.
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百分之三十
04:17
The number of people killed in civil wars
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如今在内战中惨遭杀害的人
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also is much lower today
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也远低于
04:22
than it was a decade ago or two.
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十年前或二十年前的数字
04:25
But this trend is less unambiguous.
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但是，这个趋势也不完全清晰
04:28
The highest level of deaths on the battlefield
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战场上最多的死亡人数
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was recorded between 1998 and 2001,
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记录在1998和2001年之间，
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with about 80,000 soldiers, policemen and rebels
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大约每年有八万左右的士兵，警察和反抗者
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killed every year.
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被杀害
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The lowest number of combatant casualties
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战争中死亡人人数的最低数量
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occurred in 2003,
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出现在2003年
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with just 20,000 killed.
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大约两万人遇害
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Despite the up and down since then,
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尽管后来有数字上的起伏，上上下下，
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the overall trend --
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总体的趋势
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and this is the important bit --
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也是最重要的关键
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clearly points downward
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在过去20年
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for the past two decades.
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下降很明显
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The news about civilian casualties
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有关平民遇害的新闻报道
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is also less bad than it used to be.
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与以前相比相对减少
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From over 12,000 civilians
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在1997与1998年间
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deliberately killed in civil wars
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超过一万两千平民
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in 1997 and 1998,
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在内战中遭到屠杀
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a decade later,
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十年之后
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this figure stands at 4,000.
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这个数目仅为4000
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This is a decrease by two-thirds.
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数字减少了三分之二
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This decline would be even more obvious
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如果我们算上卢旺达1994年的种族清洗
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if we factored in the genocide in Rwanda
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减少趋势就更明显了
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in 1994.
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在1994
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But then 800,000 civilians were slaughtered
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在短短几个月内
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in a matter of just a few months.
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就有八十万平民遭到屠杀
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This certainly is an accomplishment
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这肯定是个
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that must never be surpassed.
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无法超越的进步。
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What is also important is to note
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重要的是要知道
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that these figures only tell part of the story.
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这些数字仅告诉我们事实的冰山一角
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They exclude people
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这些数字没有包括
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that died as a consequence of civil war,
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由于内战而死的人
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from hunger or disease, for example.
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例如：死于饥饿和疾病的人
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And they also do not properly account
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这些数字也无法真实地反映
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for civilian suffering more generally.
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遭受各种苦难的平民百姓
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Torture, rape and ethnic cleansing
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折磨，强奸和种族清洗
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have become highly effective,
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已经成为内战中极为有效
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if often non-lethal, weapons in civil war.
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令人生不如死的非致命武器
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To put it differently,
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换句话说
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for the civilians that suffer the consequences
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对于由于种族冲突和内战而遭受伤害
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of ethnic conflict and civil war,
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平民百姓来说
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there is no good war
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没有好战争，
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and there is no bad peace.
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也没有坏和平。
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Thus, even though every civilian killed,
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任何一位平民遭到杀害、致残，抢劫，或折磨
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maimed, raped, or tortured is one too many,
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都不能轻视
06:22
the fact that the number
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然而平民死亡的数字
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of civilian casualties
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比起十年前
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is clearly lower today
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已无疑减少
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than it was a decade ago,
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这个事实
06:30
is good news.
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的确是好消息
06:33
So, we have fewer conflicts today
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今日冲突数量的减少
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in which fewer people get killed.
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遭到杀害的人数下降
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And the big question, of course,
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我们当然要问这样一个核心问题：
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is why?
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为什么减少？
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In some cases,
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在某些案例之中
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there is a military victory of one side.
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是一方获得了军事胜利
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This is a solution of sorts,
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这是一种解决方法
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but rarely is it one
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但是这种解决方法
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that comes without human costs
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很少是在没有人员伤亡
06:52
or humanitarian consequences.
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或是没有人道代价之下达成的
06:55
The defeat of the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka
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斯里兰卡的塔米尔之虎的战败
06:58
is perhaps the most recent example of this,
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我想是最近的一个血腥例子
07:00
but we have seen similar
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但是我们也在巴尔干半岛、南高加索
07:02
so-called military solutions
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以及非洲的大部分地区
07:05
in the Balkans, in the South Caucasus
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见过类似的
07:07
and across most of Africa.
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所谓的血腥
07:10
At times, they are complimented
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在其他情况下
07:12
by negotiated settlements,
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冲突者因为谈判解决而接受赞扬
07:14
or at least cease-fire agreements,
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或是至少达成停火协议
07:16
and peacekeepers are deployed.
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接受和平部队派驻
07:18
But hardly ever do they represent
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但这些情况并不表示
07:20
a resounding success --
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成功获得的和平
07:22
Bosnia and Herzegovina
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波斯利亚和黑赛格威那
07:24
perhaps more so than Georgia.
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与乔治亚相比，更接近这种状况
07:26
But for many parts of Africa,
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但对于非洲的多数区域
07:28
a colleague of mine once put it this way,
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我的同事曾经如此形容：
07:31
"The cease-fire on Tuesday night
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“星期二晚上的停火协议
07:34
was reached just in time
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及时阻止了
07:36
for the genocide to start on Wednesday morning."
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星期三早上开始的种族屠杀”
07:41
But let's look at the good news again.
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我们再回头看看好消息
07:43
If there's no solution on the battlefield,
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如果战场上无法获得解决方案
07:45
three factors can account
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有三个因素
07:47
for the prevention of ethnic conflict and civil war,
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可以阻止种族冲突与内战
07:51
or for sustainable peace afterwards:
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获取得日后足以令人接受的和平
07:54
leadership, diplomacy
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领导能力、外交手腕
07:56
and institutional design.
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以及制度设计
07:59
Take the example of Northern Ireland.
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以北爱尔兰为例
08:02
Despite centuries of animosity,
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即使有着几个世纪的仇恨
08:04
decades of violence
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数十年的暴力冲突
08:06
and thousands of people killed,
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数千人遭受杀害
08:09
1998 saw the conclusion
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仍与1998年达成了
08:11
of an historic agreement.
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历史性的协议
08:14
Its initial version was skillfully mediated
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乔治.米切尔参议员十分有技巧性的斡旋了
08:17
by Senator George Mitchell.
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双方最初的协议版本
08:19
Crucially, for the long-term success
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让北爱尔兰的和平进程
08:21
of the peace process in Northern Ireland,
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能够长久维持的关键
08:24
he imposed very clear conditions
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是他为参与和谈的双方
08:26
for the participation and negotiations.
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加上了十分明确的条件
08:29
Central among them,
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在这些条件之中
08:31
a commitment
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最重要的是只能使用
08:33
to exclusively peaceful means.
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和平手段的承诺
08:36
Subsequent revisions of the agreement
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随后的修订协议
08:38
were facilitated by the British and Irish governments,
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因为英国与爱尔兰
08:41
who never wavered in their determination
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没有动摇的和平决心
08:44
to bring peace and stability to Northern Ireland.
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迅速带来了北爱尔兰的和平与稳定
08:47
The core institutions
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在1998年起草的
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that were put in place in 1998
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核心宪法
08:51
and their modifications
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以及2006与2008年
08:53
in 2006 and 2008
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对宪法的修订
08:55
were highly innovative
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都具有十足创新的精神
08:57
and allowed all conflict parties
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并让所有互相冲突的党派
09:00
to see their core concerns and demands addressed.
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见到他们所关注的核心问题、需求获得解决
09:04
The agreement combines a power-sharing arrangement
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这份协议结合了北爱尔兰
09:06
in Northern Ireland
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权利分享的安排
09:08
with cross-border institutions
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与超越国境的宪法
09:10
that link Belfast and Dublin
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连接了贝尔法特与都柏林
09:12
and thus recognizes
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以此承认了
09:14
the so-called Irish dimension of the conflict.
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所谓的爱尔兰地区的冲突
09:17
And significantly,
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显而易见
09:19
there's also a clear focus
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这份宪法同时明确地保障了
09:21
on both the rights of individuals
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个人的权利
09:23
and the rights of communities.
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与当地社群的权利
09:27
The provisions in the agreement may be complex,
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也许这份协议的条款非常复杂
09:30
but so is the underlying conflict.
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但是在它背后冲突也是同样复杂
09:34
Perhaps most importantly,
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最重要的是
09:36
local leaders repeatedly rose to the challenge of compromise,
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当地领袖不断地回应对于妥协让步的反对意见
09:40
not always fast
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不见得每次都反映迅速
09:42
and not always enthusiastically,
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也不见得每次都充满热情
09:45
but rise in the end they did.
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但是最终证明他们缔造了和平
09:47
Who ever could have imagined
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又有谁想象得到
09:50
Ian Paisley and Martin McGuinness
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易安·佩斯里与马丁·麦吉尼斯
09:53
jointly governing Northern Ireland
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以首相和副首相的身份
09:55
as First and Deputy First Minister?
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携手共同领导北爱尔兰政府
09:58
But then, is Northern Ireland a unique example,
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然而，北爱尔兰究竟是个特例？
10:01
or does this kind of explanation
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还是这种解释
10:03
only hold more generally
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一般只能套用在
10:05
in democratic and developed countries?
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民主与已发展国家上？
10:08
By no means.
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绝非如此
10:10
The ending of Liberia's long-lasting civil war
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2003年所结束的
10:13
in 2003
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利比亚漫长的内战
10:15
illustrates the importance
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描绘了
10:17
of leadership, diplomacy
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领导力、外交手腕
10:19
and institutional design
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以及宪法设计的重要性
10:21
as much as the successful prevention
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这三个因素也成功阻止了
10:23
of a full-scale civil war
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2001年马其顿
10:25
in Macedonia in 2001,
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即将爆发的全面内战
10:28
or the successful ending
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以及成功结束了
10:30
of the conflict in Aceh in Indonesia in 2005.
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2005年发生在印尼亚齐地区的冲突
10:34
In all three cases,
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在这三个案例之中
10:36
local leaders were willing and able
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当地领袖都愿意，也都有能力
10:38
to make peace,
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缔造和平
10:40
the international community stood ready
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国际社会也准备好
10:43
to help them negotiate and implement an agreement,
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协助他们谈判与制定协议
10:46
and the institutions have lived up
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宪法制度则实践了
10:49
to the promise that they held
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自点头同意那天开始
10:51
on the day they were agreed.
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各党派许诺下的承诺
10:53
Focusing on leadership, diplomacy
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注重领导力、外交手腕
10:55
and institutional design
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与制度设计
10:57
also helps explain failures to achieve peace,
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也选择了无法得到和平或是
11:00
or to make it last.
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和平无法长久维持的原因
11:02
The hopes that were vested in the Oslo Accords
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人们对于奥斯陆协议所赋予的希望
11:04
did not lead to an end
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并没有终结
11:06
of the Israeli/Palestinian conflict.
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以色列人于巴勒斯坦人的冲突
11:08
Not all the issues that needed to be resolved
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双方需要解决的问题
11:11
were actually covered in the agreements.
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并没有全部达成协议
11:13
Rather, local leaders committed
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结果，当地领袖承诺
11:16
to revisiting them later on.
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稍后重新协议
11:19
Yet instead of grasping this opportunity,
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他们并没有抓住和平的机会
11:21
local and international leaders
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本地领袖与国际领袖
11:23
soon disengaged
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不久之后就分道扬镳
11:25
and became distracted
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并且因为随后的
11:27
by the second Intifada, the events of 9/11
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第二次巴勒斯坦起义、911事件
11:30
and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
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阿富汗与伊拉克的战争而心烦意乱
11:34
The comprehensive peace agreement for Sudan
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苏丹在2005年所签署
11:36
signed in 2005
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详尽的和平协议
11:38
turned out to be less comprehensive than envisaged,
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最终证明不如预期
11:41
and its provisions may yet bear the seeds
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而且它的条款很可能埋下
11:44
of a full-scale return to war
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南北之间
11:46
between north and south.
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再次引发全面战争的种子
11:48
Changes and shortcomings in leadership,
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领导人的更迭与领导能力的缺乏
11:51
more off than on international diplomacy
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以及国际外交
11:54
and institutional failures
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无效的制度
11:56
account for this
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三者同时
11:58
in almost equal measure.
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导致了失败
12:00
Unresolved boundary issues, squabbles over oil revenues,
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尚未解决的国界问题、原油收益的争议
12:03
the ongoing conflict in Darfur,
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达尔富尔正在进行的冲突
12:05
escalating tribal violence in the south
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都加剧了南苏丹的部落暴力冲突
12:08
and generally weak state capacity
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也削弱了苏丹对于
12:10
across all of Sudan
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全国的控制能力
12:12
complete a very depressing picture
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这些都为非洲最大的国家
12:15
of the state of affairs
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未来的前景
12:17
in Africa's largest country.
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绘制了一幅令人沮丧的画像
12:19
A final example: Kosovo.
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最后一个例子：科索沃
12:21
The failure to achieve
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科索沃谈判
12:23
a negotiated solution for Kosovo
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以失败收场
12:25
and the violence, tension
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当地的暴力冲突、紧张情势
12:27
and de facto partition that resulted from it
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以及所导致的实质分裂
12:30
have their reasons
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都牵涉到
12:32
in many, many different factors.
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众多不同的因素
12:35
Central among them are three.
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其中最关键的因素有三：
12:38
First, the intransigence of local leaders
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第一，每位当地的领袖
12:41
to settle for nothing less
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贪求自己的最高利益
12:43
than their maximum demands.
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不愿妥协让步
12:46
Second, an international diplomatic effort
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第二，国际外交所作的努力
12:49
that was hampered from the beginning
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从一开始就因为西方国家支持科索沃独立
12:52
by Western support for Kosovo's independence.
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而遭到莫大的阻碍
12:56
And third, a lack of imagination
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第三，制定足以同时
12:59
when it came to designing institutions
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保障塞尔维亚人与阿尔巴利亚人
13:02
that could have addressed the concerns
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的制度之时
13:04
of Serbs and Albanians alike.
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缺乏对于未来的前瞻性
13:07
By the same token --
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同样的
13:09
and here we have some good news again --
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我们在此也有些好消息
13:11
the very fact that there is a high-level,
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从2008开始至今两年
13:14
well-resourced international presence
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科索沃目前
13:16
in Kosovo
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已有高层次、资源充足的
13:18
and the Balkans region more generally
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3000
国际势力介入调停
13:21
and the fact that local leaders on both sides
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2000
而且巴尔干地区已经普遍地展示出
13:23
have showed relative restraint,
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双方的当地领袖
13:25
explains why things have not been worse
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拥有相当的自制力
13:28
over the past two years since 2008.
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让事态不再继续恶化
13:31
So even in situations
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所以，即使是
13:33
where outcomes are less than optimal,
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情势不甚乐观的局面
13:36
local leaders
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当地领袖
13:38
and international leaders have a choice,
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与国际领袖仍有抉择的空间
13:41
and they can make a difference for the better.
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他们拥有能力打造更好的未来
13:44
A cold war
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冷战
13:46
is not as good
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不会比冷和平
13:48
as a cold peace,
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来的更好
13:50
but a cold peace
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但是冷和平
13:52
is still better than a hot war.
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总比战争爆发的好得多
13:56
Good news is also about learning the right lesson.
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好消息也包括学习正确的教训
13:59
So what then distinguishes
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是什么原因造成
14:01
the Israeli/Palestinian conflict
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以色列人与巴勒斯坦人的冲突
14:03
from that in Northern Ireland,
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与北爱尔兰不同的结局？
14:06
or the civil war in Sudan
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导致苏丹内战
14:08
from that in Liberia?
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与利比亚不同的结果？
14:10
Both successes and failures
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成功与失败
14:13
teach us several critically important things
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都会给予我们必须
14:16
that we need to bear in mind
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谨记在心的教训
14:18
if we want the good news to continue.
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如果我们希望好消息持续下去
14:20
First, leadership.
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第一，领导能力
14:23
In the same way in which ethnic conflict and civil war
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无论是种族冲突还是内战
14:27
are not natural
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不是天灾
14:29
but man-made disasters,
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而是人祸
14:31
their prevention and settlement
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组织与解决纷争
14:33
does not happen automatically either.
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不会如同天灾结束一般水到渠成
14:37
Leadership needs to be capable,
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领导者必须有能力
14:40
determined and visionary
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拥有决心与愿景
14:42
in its commitment to peace.
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致力于缔造和平
14:44
Leaders need to connect to each other
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领导者之间必须合作
14:47
and to their followers,
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团结彼此的追随者
14:49
and they need to bring them along
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以带领他们
14:51
on what is an often arduous journey
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踏上艰巨的旅程
14:54
into a peaceful future.
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一起走向和平的未来
14:56
Second, diplomacy.
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第二，外交手腕
14:59
Diplomacy needs to be well resourced,
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外交必须拥有充足的资源
15:02
sustained,
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持续不断努力
15:04
and apply the right mix of incentives and pressures
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以及施加与领袖与追随者之上
15:06
on leaders and followers.
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恰到好处的诱因与压力
15:08
It needs to help them reach an equitable compromise,
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外交必须协助他们达成彼此公平的妥协让步
15:11
and it needs to ensure
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896000
2000
也必须确保
15:13
that a broad coalition
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2000
当地
15:15
of local, regional
362
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2000
与国际支持者之间
15:17
and international supporters
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广大的联盟
15:19
help them implement their agreement.
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3000
以协助他们制定协议
15:22
Third, institutional design.
365
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第三，制度设计
15:25
Institutional design requires
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2000
制度设计需要
15:27
a keen focus on issues,
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对于问题的敏锐专注
15:29
innovative thinking
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创新的思考
15:31
and flexible and well-funded implementation.
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以及具有弹性与资金充足的实施方法
15:35
Conflict parties need to move away
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冲突的党派必须从彼此的最高利益之下
15:38
from maximum demands
371
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各让一步
15:40
and towards a compromise
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已达成承认彼此需求的
15:42
that recognizes each other's needs.
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妥协结果
15:45
And they need to think
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而且他们必须思考
15:47
about the substance of their agreement
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协议的实质意义
15:49
much more than about
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2000
而不是
15:51
the labels they want to attach to them.
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他们想加在其上的标签
15:53
Conflict parties also need to be prepared
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冲突的党派也必须在
15:55
to return to the negotiation table
379
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协议实行停滞不前的时候
15:58
if the agreement implementation stalls.
380
943000
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做好回到谈判桌旁的准备
16:02
For me personally,
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我个人而言
16:04
the most critical lesson of all is this:
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从这些例子中得到的最重要的教训是：
16:07
Local commitment to peace
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当地是否致力于和平
16:09
is all-important,
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954000
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非常重要
16:11
but it is often not enough
385
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3000
光是这样不够
16:14
to prevent or end violence.
386
959000
3000
为了阻止或终结暴力冲突
16:17
Yet, no amount of diplomacy
387
962000
3000
再多的外交技巧
16:20
or institutional design
388
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2000
和制度设计
16:22
can make up for local failures
389
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都不能弥补当地的失败
16:25
and the consequences that they have.
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和其后果
16:28
Therefore, we must invest
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所以，我们必须为了
16:31
in developing leaders,
392
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3000
培养领导人而投资
16:34
leaders that have the skills,
393
979000
3000
培养有本领
16:37
vision and determination
394
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2000
有远见和决心
16:39
to make peace.
395
984000
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制造和平的领导人
16:41
Leaders, in other words,
396
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也就是说要培养
16:43
that people will trust
397
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2000
人民会信任
16:45
and that they will want to follow
398
990000
3000
并且愿意追随的领导人
16:48
even if that means
399
993000
2000
即使这意味着
16:50
making hard choices.
400
995000
3000
要做出艰难的决定
16:53
A final thought:
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最后一点：
16:55
Ending civil wars
402
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结束内战
16:57
is a process that is fraught with dangers,
403
1002000
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是充满危险
17:00
frustrations and setbacks.
404
1005000
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挫败和挫折的过程。
17:03
It often takes a generation to accomplish,
405
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往往几代人才能做到，
17:06
but it also requires us, today's generation,
406
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但是我们这代人也必须要这样去做
17:09
to take responsibility
407
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去承担起责任
17:11
and to learn the right lessons
408
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去正确地学习
17:13
about leadership, diplomacy
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领导力，外交才能
17:16
and institutional design,
410
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和制度设计
17:19
so that the child soldiers of today
411
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这样，今天的童子军
17:22
can become the children of tomorrow.
412
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才能称为明天享有和平的儿童
17:24
Thank you.
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谢谢
17:26
(Applause)
414
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Stefan Wolff - Ethnic conflicts scholarStefan Wolff studies contemporary conflicts, focusing on the prevention and settlement of ethnic conflicts and in postconflict reconstruction in deeply divided and war-torn societies.
Why you should listen
German political scientist Stefan Wolff is professor of international security at the University of Birmingham, England, and one of the world's leading experts on ethnic conflicts. He consults with governments and international organizations on issues such as the development and stability of post-conflict areas, the institutional design of solutions for self-determination conflicts, and ethnopolitics and minority questions. Bridging the divide between academia and policy-making, he has been involved in various phases of conflict settlement processes in Sudan, Moldova, Sri Lanka and Kosovo. He has also worked on a wide range of conflicts in places such as Northern Ireland, the Balkans, Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, the Middle East and Asia. He is currently advising on the settlement of the status of Kirkuk, Iraq, and Transnistria, Moldova. He's written a dozen books, including Ethnic Conflict: A Global Perspective, the first major treatment of the subject aimed at a broad general audience. He's the founding editor of Ethnopolitics, a quarterly, peer-reviewed journal dedicated to the study of ethnic conflicts and their management around the globe.
Stefan Wolff | Speaker | TED.com