TEDGlobal 2010
Stefan Wolff: The path to ending ethnic conflicts
史帝凡．沃爾夫：邁向終結種族衝突之路
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內戰與種族衝突為全世界帶來令人難以置信的苦難，但是史帝凡．沃爾夫向我們提出統計數字，在過去二十年內，這類衝突的數量以穩定的趨勢減少。他從北愛爾蘭、利比亞、帝汶以及其它衝突之中，萃取出最關鍵的教訓：領導能力、外交手腕、憲政設計三種因素，是我們捍衛和平的最佳武器。
Stefan Wolff - Ethnic conflicts scholar
Stefan Wolff studies contemporary conflicts, focusing on the prevention and settlement of ethnic conflicts and in postconflict reconstruction in deeply divided and war-torn societies. Full bio
Stefan Wolff studies contemporary conflicts, focusing on the prevention and settlement of ethnic conflicts and in postconflict reconstruction in deeply divided and war-torn societies. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Today I want to talk to you
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今天向各位演講的內容是
00:17
about ethnic conflict
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「種族衝突
00:19
and civil war.
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以及內戰」
00:21
These are not normally the most cheerful of topics,
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一般說來，這種主題不會振奮人心
00:24
nor do they generally generate
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通常也不會傳達
00:26
the kind of good news
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令人欣慰的好消息
00:28
that this conference is about.
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這就是今天研討會的議題
00:31
Yet, not only is there at least some good news
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然而，我們至少還有一些好消息：
00:34
to be told about fewer such conflicts now
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比起二十年前的情況
00:37
than two decades ago,
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這類衝突已經日趨減少
00:39
but what is perhaps more important
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也許更重要的是
00:41
is that we also have come
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現在我們已經更加瞭解
00:43
to a much better understanding of what can be done
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必須採取什麼方法
00:46
to further reduce the number
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才能減少
00:48
of ethnic conflicts and civil wars
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種族衝突與內戰
00:51
and the suffering that they inflict.
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以及隨之而來的苦難
00:54
Three things stand out:
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其中包括三個顯著的因素：
00:56
leadership, diplomacy
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領導能力、外交手腕
00:59
and institutional design.
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以及憲政設計
01:02
What I will focus on in my talk
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今天的演講，我會著重在：
01:04
is why they matter, how they matter,
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這三者為什麼重要、有多重要
01:07
and what we can all do
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以及我們能夠作些什麼
01:09
to make sure that they continue to matter
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以確保這三個重要的因素
01:11
in the right ways,
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繼續發揮正面的影響力
01:13
that is, how all of us can contribute
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也就是，我們全人類如何貢獻心力
01:16
to developing and honing the skills
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以培養、琢磨
01:19
of local and global leaders
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當地與國際領袖
01:22
to make peace
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締結休戰
01:24
and to make it last.
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並長久維護和平的技巧
01:26
But let's start at the beginning.
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現在，我們先回到原點
01:29
Civil wars have made news headlines
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幾十年來
01:31
for many decades now,
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內戰一直是新聞標題的常客
01:33
and ethnic conflicts in particular
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特別是種族衝突
01:35
have been a near constant presence
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已經是持續不斷的
01:38
as a major international security threat.
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重大國際安全威脅
01:41
For nearly two decades now,
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過去二十年來
01:44
the news has been bad
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壞消息不斷
01:46
and the images have been haunting.
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境況也令人憂心
01:49
In Georgia, after years of stalemate,
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在喬治亞，經過多年的對峙
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we saw a full-scale resurgence of violence
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於 2008 年八月
01:55
in August, 2008.
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再度爆發全面的暴力衝突
01:57
This quickly escalated into a five-day war
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迅速惡化為俄羅斯與喬治亞之間的
02:00
between Russia and Georgia,
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五日戰爭
02:02
leaving Georgia ever more divided.
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導致喬治亞更為分崩離析
02:05
In Kenya, contested presidential elections in 2007 --
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在肯亞，2007 年備受爭議的總統選舉
02:08
we just heard about them --
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——我們才剛聼到這件事的演講——
02:11
quickly led to high levels
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立刻轉變為嚴重的
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of inter-ethnic violence
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種族之間的暴力衝突
02:15
and the killing and displacement
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成千上萬的人
02:17
of thousands of people.
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遭受殺害、流離失所
02:19
In Sri Lanka,
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在斯里蘭卡
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a decades-long civil war
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少數族群泰米爾人
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between the Tamil minority
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與多數族群僧伽羅人之間
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and the Sinhala majority
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數十年漫長的內戰
02:27
led to a bloody climax in 2009,
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於 2009 年演變為恐怖的血腥衝突
02:30
after perhaps as many as 100,000
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在此之前，自 1983 年以來
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people had been killed
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已經有將近
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since 1983.
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十萬人死於內戰
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In Kyrgyzstan, just over the last few weeks,
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在吉爾吉斯，僅在前幾個星期之中
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unprecedented levels of violence occurred
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吉爾吉斯族人
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between ethnic Kyrgyz
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與烏茲別克族人之間
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and ethnic Uzbeks.
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爆發了史無前例的暴力衝突
02:46
Hundreds have been killed,
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數百人遭到殺害
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and more than 100,000 displaced,
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超過十萬人無家可歸
02:51
including many ethnic Uzbeks
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其中包括許多逃到鄰國烏茲別克的
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who fled to neighboring Uzbekistan.
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烏茲別克族人
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In the Middle East,
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在中東地區
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conflict between Israelis and Palestinians
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以色列人與巴勒斯坦人之間的衝突
03:01
continues unabated,
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持續不斷
03:03
and it becomes ever more difficult
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而我們愈來愈難以預見
03:05
to see how, just how
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該如何達成
03:08
a possible, sustainable solution
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可以令兩方接受、長久維持
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can be achieved.
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的和平方案
03:13
Darfur may have slipped from the news headlines,
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達佛地區也許沒有出現在新聞標題上
03:16
but the killing and displacement there
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但是當地的殺戮與人民的流離失所
03:18
continues as well,
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從未間斷
03:20
and the sheer human misery that it creates
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該地所製造的人間悲劇
03:23
is very hard to fathom.
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遠超過你我的想像
03:25
And in Iraq, finally,
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在伊拉克
03:27
violence is on the rise again,
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終於再度面臨暴力衝突
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and the country has yet to form a government
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而伊拉克於四個月前
03:33
four months after
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進行的國會選舉
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its last parliamentary elections.
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直到目前仍無法籌組政府
03:40
But hang on, this talk is to be about the good news.
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但是，我的演講帶來的是好消息
03:43
So are these now the images of the past?
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所以剛提到的都是過去的境況了嗎？
03:47
Well, notwithstanding the gloomy pictures
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雖然我們看到了悲慘灰暗的現狀
03:50
from the Middle East, Darfur,
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存在於中東、達佛
03:52
Iraq, elsewhere,
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伊拉克、以及其他地區。
03:54
there is a longer-term trend
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以長期的趨勢來看
03:56
that does represent some good news.
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我們確實有好消息
03:59
Over the past two decades, since the end of the Cold War,
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自從冷戰結束以來的二十年間
04:02
there has been an overall decline
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內戰的數量
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in the number of civil wars.
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呈現下降的趨勢
04:07
Since the high in the early 1990s,
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從 1990 年代早期的高峰期
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with about 50 such civil wars ongoing,
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大約有 50 場內戰
04:13
we now have 30 percent fewer
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而至今天，這種衝突的數量
04:15
such conflicts today.
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減少了百分之三十
04:17
The number of people killed in civil wars
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今日在內戰之中遭到殺害的人數
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also is much lower today
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也遠低於
04:22
than it was a decade ago or two.
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十年前或二十年前的數字
04:25
But this trend is less unambiguous.
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但是，這個趨勢並不明顯
04:28
The highest level of deaths on the battlefield
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戰場上最多的死亡人數
04:31
was recorded between 1998 and 2001,
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紀錄於 1998 年到 2001 年之間
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with about 80,000 soldiers, policemen and rebels
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大約是每年八萬名軍人、警察、叛軍
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killed every year.
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死於戰場
04:39
The lowest number of combatant casualties
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最低的戰鬥人員死亡人數
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occurred in 2003,
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紀錄於 2003 年
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with just 20,000 killed.
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只有兩萬人死亡
04:47
Despite the up and down since then,
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雖然數字上下起伏不定
04:50
the overall trend --
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總體的趨勢
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and this is the important bit --
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——也是最重要的關鍵——
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clearly points downward
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明顯下降
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for the past two decades.
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過去二十年來
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The news about civilian casualties
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有關平民死亡的新聞
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is also less bad than it used to be.
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與往昔比較亦相對減輕
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From over 12,000 civilians
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在 1997 年與 1998 年間
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deliberately killed in civil wars
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超過一萬兩千位平民
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in 1997 and 1998,
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遭到蓄意屠殺
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a decade later,
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十年之後
05:12
this figure stands at 4,000.
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遭到殺害的平民降低為四千人
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This is a decrease by two-thirds.
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數字減少了三分之二
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This decline would be even more obvious
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如果我們列入 1994 年
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if we factored in the genocide in Rwanda
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盧安達的種族屠殺
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in 1994.
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下降的趨勢就更為明顯
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But then 800,000 civilians were slaughtered
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那時在短短的幾個月之內
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in a matter of just a few months.
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就有八十萬平民遭到屠殺
05:30
This certainly is an accomplishment
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這是我們後人永遠不可超越的
05:32
that must never be surpassed.
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殘暴罪行
05:35
What is also important is to note
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我們也應該同樣謹記
05:37
that these figures only tell part of the story.
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這些數字只代表著冰山的一角
05:40
They exclude people
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這些數字沒有列入
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that died as a consequence of civil war,
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因為內戰造成的飢荒、疾病
05:44
from hunger or disease, for example.
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種種惡果之下死亡的人數
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And they also do not properly account
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這些數字也無法真實地反映
05:48
for civilian suffering more generally.
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遭受各種苦難的平民百姓
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Torture, rape and ethnic cleansing
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酷刑、強暴、種族淨化
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have become highly effective,
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已經成為內戰之中極為有效
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if often non-lethal, weapons in civil war.
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令人生不如死的非致命性武器
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To put it differently,
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換句話說
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for the civilians that suffer the consequences
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對於遭受種族衝突、內戰苦果的
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of ethnic conflict and civil war,
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平民百姓來說
06:10
there is no good war
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戰爭永遠是邪惡的
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and there is no bad peace.
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和平永遠是良善
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Thus, even though every civilian killed,
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任何一位平民遭到殺害、傷殘、強暴、酷刑
06:19
maimed, raped, or tortured is one too many,
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都不能輕視
06:22
the fact that the number
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然而平民死亡的數字
06:24
of civilian casualties
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比起十年前
06:26
is clearly lower today
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已經明顯降低
06:28
than it was a decade ago,
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這項事實
06:30
is good news.
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確實是好消息
06:33
So, we have fewer conflicts today
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今日的衝突數量減少
06:35
in which fewer people get killed.
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遭受殺害的人數下降
06:38
And the big question, of course,
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我們當然要問一個核心問題：
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is why?
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「為什麼減少？」
06:42
In some cases,
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某些案例之中
06:44
there is a military victory of one side.
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是一方獲得了軍事勝利
06:46
This is a solution of sorts,
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這是一種解決方法
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but rarely is it one
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但是這種解決方法
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that comes without human costs
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很少是在沒有人員傷亡
06:52
or humanitarian consequences.
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或是沒有人道代價之下達成的
06:55
The defeat of the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka
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斯里蘭卡的塔米爾之虎的戰敗
06:58
is perhaps the most recent example of this,
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我想是最近的一個血腥例子
07:00
but we have seen similar
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但是我們也在巴爾幹半島、南高加索
07:02
so-called military solutions
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以及非洲的大部分區域
07:05
in the Balkans, in the South Caucasus
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見過類似的
07:07
and across most of Africa.
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所謂的血腥「軍事手段」
07:10
At times, they are complimented
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在其他的情況之中
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by negotiated settlements,
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衝突者因為談判解決而接受讚揚
07:14
or at least cease-fire agreements,
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或是至少達成停火協議
07:16
and peacekeepers are deployed.
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接受和平部隊派駐
07:18
But hardly ever do they represent
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但是這些情況並不表示
07:20
a resounding success --
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成功獲得的和平
07:22
Bosnia and Herzegovina
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波士尼亞與黑塞哥維那
07:24
perhaps more so than Georgia.
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與喬治亞相比，更接近此種狀況
07:26
But for many parts of Africa,
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但對於非洲的多數區域
07:28
a colleague of mine once put it this way,
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我的同事曾經如此形容：
07:31
"The cease-fire on Tuesday night
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「星期二晚上的停火協議
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was reached just in time
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及時阻止了
07:36
for the genocide to start on Wednesday morning."
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星期三早上正要開始的種族屠殺」
07:41
But let's look at the good news again.
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我們回頭再看看好的消息
07:43
If there's no solution on the battlefield,
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如果戰場之上無法獲得解決方案
07:45
three factors can account
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有三個因素
07:47
for the prevention of ethnic conflict and civil war,
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可以阻止種族衝突與內戰
07:51
or for sustainable peace afterwards:
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或取得日後足以令人接受的和平
07:54
leadership, diplomacy
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領導能力、外交手腕
07:56
and institutional design.
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以及憲政設計
07:59
Take the example of Northern Ireland.
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以北愛爾蘭為例
08:02
Despite centuries of animosity,
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即使有著橫跨幾個世紀的仇恨
08:04
decades of violence
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數十年的暴力衝突
08:06
and thousands of people killed,
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數千人遭受殺害
08:09
1998 saw the conclusion
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仍於 1998 年達成了
08:11
of an historic agreement.
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歷史性的協議
08:14
Its initial version was skillfully mediated
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喬治．米切爾參議員十分有技巧地中介了
08:17
by Senator George Mitchell.
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雙方最初的協議版本
08:19
Crucially, for the long-term success
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讓北愛爾蘭的和平進程
08:21
of the peace process in Northern Ireland,
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能夠長久維持的關鍵
08:24
he imposed very clear conditions
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是他為了雙方參與和談判
08:26
for the participation and negotiations.
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加上了十分明確的條件
08:29
Central among them,
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在這些條件之中
08:31
a commitment
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最重要的是只能使用
08:33
to exclusively peaceful means.
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和平手段的承諾
08:36
Subsequent revisions of the agreement
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隨後的修訂協議
08:38
were facilitated by the British and Irish governments,
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因為英國與愛爾蘭政府
08:41
who never wavered in their determination
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從未動搖的和平決心
08:44
to bring peace and stability to Northern Ireland.
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迅速帶來了北愛爾蘭的和平與穩定
08:47
The core institutions
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於 1998 年起草的
08:49
that were put in place in 1998
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核心憲法
08:51
and their modifications
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以及 2006 與 2008 年
08:53
in 2006 and 2008
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對憲法的修訂
08:55
were highly innovative
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具有十足創新的精神
08:57
and allowed all conflict parties
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並讓所有互相衝突的黨派
09:00
to see their core concerns and demands addressed.
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見到他們所關注的核心問題、需求獲得處理
09:04
The agreement combines a power-sharing arrangement
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此份協議結合了北愛爾蘭
09:06
in Northern Ireland
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分享權力的安排
09:08
with cross-border institutions
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與超越國境的憲法
09:10
that link Belfast and Dublin
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連接了貝爾法斯特與都柏林
09:12
and thus recognizes
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以此承認了
09:14
the so-called Irish dimension of the conflict.
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所謂的愛爾蘭地區的衝突
09:17
And significantly,
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顯而易見
09:19
there's also a clear focus
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這份憲法同時明確地保障了
09:21
on both the rights of individuals
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個人的權利
09:23
and the rights of communities.
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與當地社群的權利
09:27
The provisions in the agreement may be complex,
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也許這份協議的條款非常複雜
09:30
but so is the underlying conflict.
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但是在它背後的衝突也是同樣複雜
09:34
Perhaps most importantly,
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最重要的是
09:36
local leaders repeatedly rose to the challenge of compromise,
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當地領袖不斷地回應對於妥協讓步的反對意見
09:40
not always fast
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不見得每次都迅速反應
09:42
and not always enthusiastically,
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也不見得每次都充滿熱情
09:45
but rise in the end they did.
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但是最終證明他們締造了和平
09:47
Who ever could have imagined
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又有誰想像得到
09:50
Ian Paisley and Martin McGuinness
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依安．佩斯利與馬丁．麥吉尼斯
09:53
jointly governing Northern Ireland
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以首相與副首相的身份
09:55
as First and Deputy First Minister?
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攜手共同領導北愛爾蘭政府
09:58
But then, is Northern Ireland a unique example,
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然而，北愛爾蘭究竟是個特例？
10:01
or does this kind of explanation
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還是這種解釋
10:03
only hold more generally
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一般只能套用在
10:05
in democratic and developed countries?
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民主與已發展國家上？
10:08
By no means.
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絕非如此
10:10
The ending of Liberia's long-lasting civil war
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2003 年所結束
10:13
in 2003
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利比亞漫長的內戰
10:15
illustrates the importance
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描繪了
10:17
of leadership, diplomacy
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領導能力、外交手腕
10:19
and institutional design
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以及憲法設計的重要性
10:21
as much as the successful prevention
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這三個因素也成功阻止了
10:23
of a full-scale civil war
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2001 年馬其頓
10:25
in Macedonia in 2001,
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即將爆發的全面內戰
10:28
or the successful ending
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以及成功結束了
10:30
of the conflict in Aceh in Indonesia in 2005.
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2005 年發生於印尼亞齊地區的衝突
10:34
In all three cases,
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在這三個案例之中
10:36
local leaders were willing and able
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當地領袖皆願意、亦有能力
10:38
to make peace,
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締造和平
10:40
the international community stood ready
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國際社會也準備好
10:43
to help them negotiate and implement an agreement,
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協助他們談判與制定協議
10:46
and the institutions have lived up
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憲法制度則實踐了
10:49
to the promise that they held
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自從點頭同意那天開始
10:51
on the day they were agreed.
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各方黨派所許下的承諾
10:53
Focusing on leadership, diplomacy
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注重領導能力、外交手腕
10:55
and institutional design
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與憲法設計
10:57
also helps explain failures to achieve peace,
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也解釋了無法得到和平或是
11:00
or to make it last.
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和平無法長久維持的原因
11:02
The hopes that were vested in the Oslo Accords
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人們對於奧斯陸協定所賦予的希望
11:04
did not lead to an end
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並沒有終結
11:06
of the Israeli/Palestinian conflict.
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以色列人與巴勒斯坦人的衝突
11:08
Not all the issues that needed to be resolved
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雙方需要解決的問題
11:11
were actually covered in the agreements.
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並沒有全部達成協議
11:13
Rather, local leaders committed
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結果，當地領袖承諾
11:16
to revisiting them later on.
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稍後重審協議
11:19
Yet instead of grasping this opportunity,
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他們並沒有抓住和平的機會
11:21
local and international leaders
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當地與國際領袖
11:23
soon disengaged
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不久之後即分崩離析
11:25
and became distracted
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並且因為隨後的
11:27
by the second Intifada, the events of 9/11
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第二次巴勒斯坦大起義、9/11 事件
11:30
and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
272
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阿富汗與伊拉克的戰爭而分心
11:34
The comprehensive peace agreement for Sudan
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蘇丹於 2005 年所簽署
11:36
signed in 2005
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詳盡的和平協議
11:38
turned out to be less comprehensive than envisaged,
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最後證明它不如預期
11:41
and its provisions may yet bear the seeds
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而且它的條款很可能埋下
11:44
of a full-scale return to war
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南北之間
11:46
between north and south.
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再次引發全面戰爭的種子
11:48
Changes and shortcomings in leadership,
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領袖的更迭與缺乏領導能力
11:51
more off than on international diplomacy
280
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以及國際外交
11:54
and institutional failures
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無效的憲政
11:56
account for this
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三者同時
11:58
in almost equal measure.
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導致了失敗的結局
12:00
Unresolved boundary issues, squabbles over oil revenues,
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尚未解決的國界問題、原油收益的爭議
12:03
the ongoing conflict in Darfur,
285
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2000
達佛正在進行的衝突
12:05
escalating tribal violence in the south
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都加劇了南蘇丹的部落暴力衝突
12:08
and generally weak state capacity
287
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2000
也削弱了蘇丹對於
12:10
across all of Sudan
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全國的控制能力
12:12
complete a very depressing picture
289
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這些都為非洲最大的國家
12:15
of the state of affairs
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未來的前景
12:17
in Africa's largest country.
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2000
繪製了一幅令人沮喪的畫像
12:19
A final example: Kosovo.
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最後一個例子：科索沃
12:21
The failure to achieve
293
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2000
科索沃談判
12:23
a negotiated solution for Kosovo
294
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2000
以失敗收場
12:25
and the violence, tension
295
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當地的暴力衝突、緊張情勢
12:27
and de facto partition that resulted from it
296
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以及所導致的實質分裂
12:30
have their reasons
297
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都牽涉到
12:32
in many, many different factors.
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眾多不同的因素
12:35
Central among them are three.
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其中最關鍵的因素有三：
12:38
First, the intransigence of local leaders
300
743000
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第一，各個當地領袖
12:41
to settle for nothing less
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貪求自己的最高利益
12:43
than their maximum demands.
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而不願妥協讓步
12:46
Second, an international diplomatic effort
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第二，國際外交所做的努力
12:49
that was hampered from the beginning
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從一開始就因為西方國家支持科索沃獨立
12:52
by Western support for Kosovo's independence.
305
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3000
而遭到莫大的阻礙
12:56
And third, a lack of imagination
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第三，制定足以同時
12:59
when it came to designing institutions
307
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保障塞爾維亞人與阿爾巴尼亞
13:02
that could have addressed the concerns
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2000
的憲法之時
13:04
of Serbs and Albanians alike.
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3000
缺乏對於未來的想像力
13:07
By the same token --
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同樣地
13:09
and here we have some good news again --
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——我們在此也有些好消息
13:11
the very fact that there is a high-level,
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從 2008 開始至今兩年
13:14
well-resourced international presence
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2000
科索沃目前
13:16
in Kosovo
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已有高階層、資源充足的
13:18
and the Balkans region more generally
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3000
國際勢力介入調停
13:21
and the fact that local leaders on both sides
316
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2000
而且巴爾幹地區已經普遍地展現出
13:23
have showed relative restraint,
317
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雙方的當地領袖
13:25
explains why things have not been worse
318
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擁有相當的自制力
13:28
over the past two years since 2008.
319
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讓事態不再繼續惡化
13:31
So even in situations
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796000
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所以，即使是
13:33
where outcomes are less than optimal,
321
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情勢不甚樂觀的局面
13:36
local leaders
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當地領袖
13:38
and international leaders have a choice,
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與國際領袖仍有抉擇的空間
13:41
and they can make a difference for the better.
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他們擁有能力打造更好的未來
13:44
A cold war
325
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冷戰
13:46
is not as good
326
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2000
不會比冷和平
13:48
as a cold peace,
327
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2000
來的更好
13:50
but a cold peace
328
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2000
但是冷和平
13:52
is still better than a hot war.
329
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3000
總比戰爭爆發好得多
13:56
Good news is also about learning the right lesson.
330
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好消息也包括學習正確的教訓
13:59
So what then distinguishes
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是什麼原因造成
14:01
the Israeli/Palestinian conflict
332
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以色列人／巴勒斯坦人的衝突
14:03
from that in Northern Ireland,
333
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3000
與北愛爾蘭不同的結局？
14:06
or the civil war in Sudan
334
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導致蘇丹內戰
14:08
from that in Liberia?
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與賴比瑞亞不同的結果？
14:10
Both successes and failures
336
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成功與失敗
14:13
teach us several critically important things
337
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都會給予我們必須
14:16
that we need to bear in mind
338
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謹記在心的教訓
14:18
if we want the good news to continue.
339
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如果我們希望好消息持續下去。
14:20
First, leadership.
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第一，領導能力
14:23
In the same way in which ethnic conflict and civil war
341
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無論是種族衝突還是內戰
14:27
are not natural
342
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都不是天災
14:29
but man-made disasters,
343
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2000
而是人禍
14:31
their prevention and settlement
344
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阻止與解決紛爭
14:33
does not happen automatically either.
345
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3000
不會如同天災結束一般水到渠成
14:37
Leadership needs to be capable,
346
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領導者必須有能力
14:40
determined and visionary
347
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2000
擁有決心與願景
14:42
in its commitment to peace.
348
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致力於締造和平
14:44
Leaders need to connect to each other
349
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領導者之間必須合作
14:47
and to their followers,
350
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團結彼此的追隨者
14:49
and they need to bring them along
351
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以帶領他們
14:51
on what is an often arduous journey
352
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3000
踏上艱鉅的旅程
14:54
into a peaceful future.
353
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2000
一起走向和平的未來
14:56
Second, diplomacy.
354
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3000
第二，外交手腕
14:59
Diplomacy needs to be well resourced,
355
884000
3000
外交必須擁有充足的資源
15:02
sustained,
356
887000
2000
持續不斷努力
15:04
and apply the right mix of incentives and pressures
357
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2000
以及施加於領袖與追隨者之上
15:06
on leaders and followers.
358
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2000
恰到好處的誘因與壓力
15:08
It needs to help them reach an equitable compromise,
359
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外交必須協助他們達成彼此公平的妥協讓步
15:11
and it needs to ensure
360
896000
2000
也必須確保
15:13
that a broad coalition
361
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2000
當地、區域
15:15
of local, regional
362
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2000
與國際支持者之間
15:17
and international supporters
363
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2000
廣大的聯盟
15:19
help them implement their agreement.
364
904000
3000
以協助他們制定協議
15:22
Third, institutional design.
365
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3000
第三，憲政設計
15:25
Institutional design requires
366
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2000
憲政設計需要
15:27
a keen focus on issues,
367
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2000
對於問題的敏銳專注
15:29
innovative thinking
368
914000
2000
創新的思考
15:31
and flexible and well-funded implementation.
369
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3000
以及具有彈性與資金充足的實施方法
15:35
Conflict parties need to move away
370
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3000
衝突的黨派必須從彼此的最高利益之下
15:38
from maximum demands
371
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2000
各讓一步
15:40
and towards a compromise
372
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2000
以達成承認彼此需求的
15:42
that recognizes each other's needs.
373
927000
3000
妥協結果
15:45
And they need to think
374
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2000
而且他們必須思考
15:47
about the substance of their agreement
375
932000
2000
協議的實質意義
15:49
much more than about
376
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2000
而不是
15:51
the labels they want to attach to them.
377
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2000
他們想加諸其上的膚淺標籤
15:53
Conflict parties also need to be prepared
378
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2000
衝突的黨派也必須在
15:55
to return to the negotiation table
379
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3000
協議實行停滯不前的時候
15:58
if the agreement implementation stalls.
380
943000
3000
作好回到談判桌旁的準備
16:02
For me personally,
381
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2000
以我個人的意見
16:04
the most critical lesson of all is this:
382
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3000
從這些例子得到最重要的教訓是：
16:07
Local commitment to peace
383
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2000
當地是否致力於和平
16:09
is all-important,
384
954000
2000
至為重要
16:11
but it is often not enough
385
956000
3000
光是這樣還不夠
16:14
to prevent or end violence.
386
959000
3000
為了阻止或終結暴力衝突
16:17
Yet, no amount of diplomacy
387
962000
3000
再多的外交手段
16:20
or institutional design
388
965000
2000
再多的憲法設計
16:22
can make up for local failures
389
967000
3000
都不足以彌補當地的失敗
16:25
and the consequences that they have.
390
970000
3000
和其後果
16:28
Therefore, we must invest
391
973000
3000
所以，我們必須協助
16:31
in developing leaders,
392
976000
3000
具有潛力的領導者
16:34
leaders that have the skills,
393
979000
3000
以及擁有能力、願景、決心的
16:37
vision and determination
394
982000
2000
領導者
16:39
to make peace.
395
984000
2000
以創造和平
16:41
Leaders, in other words,
396
986000
2000
領導者，換句話說
16:43
that people will trust
397
988000
2000
就是人民願意信任
16:45
and that they will want to follow
398
990000
3000
願意追隨的人
16:48
even if that means
399
993000
2000
即使意味著
16:50
making hard choices.
400
995000
3000
他必須做出艱難的抉擇
16:53
A final thought:
401
998000
2000
最後的想法：
16:55
Ending civil wars
402
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2000
終結內戰
16:57
is a process that is fraught with dangers,
403
1002000
3000
是一個充滿危險、挫敗
17:00
frustrations and setbacks.
404
1005000
3000
與逆境的過程
17:03
It often takes a generation to accomplish,
405
1008000
3000
經常需要一整個世代的時間才能達成
17:06
but it also requires us, today's generation,
406
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也需要我們今日的世代
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to take responsibility
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負起責任
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and to learn the right lessons
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學習正確的教訓
17:13
about leadership, diplomacy
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瞭解領導能力、外交手腕
17:16
and institutional design,
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以及憲政設計
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so that the child soldiers of today
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讓今日戰火摧殘之下的兒童兵
17:22
can become the children of tomorrow.
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成為明日享有安祥和平的孩子
17:24
Thank you.
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謝謝各位
17:26
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Stefan Wolff - Ethnic conflicts scholarStefan Wolff studies contemporary conflicts, focusing on the prevention and settlement of ethnic conflicts and in postconflict reconstruction in deeply divided and war-torn societies.
Why you should listen
German political scientist Stefan Wolff is professor of international security at the University of Birmingham, England, and one of the world's leading experts on ethnic conflicts. He consults with governments and international organizations on issues such as the development and stability of post-conflict areas, the institutional design of solutions for self-determination conflicts, and ethnopolitics and minority questions. Bridging the divide between academia and policy-making, he has been involved in various phases of conflict settlement processes in Sudan, Moldova, Sri Lanka and Kosovo. He has also worked on a wide range of conflicts in places such as Northern Ireland, the Balkans, Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, the Middle East and Asia. He is currently advising on the settlement of the status of Kirkuk, Iraq, and Transnistria, Moldova. He's written a dozen books, including Ethnic Conflict: A Global Perspective, the first major treatment of the subject aimed at a broad general audience. He's the founding editor of Ethnopolitics, a quarterly, peer-reviewed journal dedicated to the study of ethnic conflicts and their management around the globe.
Stefan Wolff | Speaker | TED.com