TED2010
Daniel Kahneman: The riddle of experience vs. memory
丹尼尔·卡纳曼：经验与记忆之谜
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通过使用休假和胃肠镜检查的例子，诺贝尔奖获得者及行为经济学创始者丹尼尔·卡纳曼向我们揭示了“经验自我”和“记忆自我”是如何使用不同角度来理解快乐。这一新见解将会对经济领域、公共政策领域以及我们的自我意识产生深远的影响。
Daniel Kahneman - Behavioral economics founder
Widely regarded as the world's most influential living psychologist, Daniel Kahneman won the Nobel in Economics for his pioneering work in behavioral economics -- exploring the irrational ways we make decisions about risk. Full bio
Widely regarded as the world's most influential living psychologist, Daniel Kahneman won the Nobel in Economics for his pioneering work in behavioral economics -- exploring the irrational ways we make decisions about risk. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Everybody talks about happiness these days.
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最近大家都在谈论着快乐。
00:18
I had somebody count the number of books
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在过去的五年里，我请人数了近年来有多本书的
00:21
with "happiness" in the title published in the last five years
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书名中提到“快乐”，
00:24
and they gave up after about 40, and there were many more.
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他们数到大约有40本，而且还有更多没数到的。
00:29
There is a huge wave of interest in happiness,
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现今越来越多研究者都开始对快乐
00:32
among researchers.
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这个议题产生兴趣。
00:34
There is a lot of happiness coaching.
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而且还有很多的“快乐教练”授课。
00:36
Everybody would like to make people happier.
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让其他人更快乐是他们的宗旨。
00:38
But in spite of all this flood of work,
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虽然此类工作多如牛毛，
00:42
there are several cognitive traps
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但现仍存在几个认知上的陷阱，
00:44
that sort of make it almost impossible to think straight
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这些陷阱将会增加使人领悟
00:47
about happiness.
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快乐本质的难度。
00:49
And my talk today will be mostly about these cognitive traps.
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我今天将主要谈论这些认知陷阱。
00:52
This applies to laypeople thinking about their own happiness,
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这些陷阱既会影响到一般人对自身快乐的观感，
00:55
and it applies to scholars thinking about happiness,
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而且也会影响到学者对快乐的判断，
00:58
because it turns out we're just as messed up as anybody else is.
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因为人无完人，我们皆会出错。
01:02
The first of these traps
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第一个陷阱是
01:04
is a reluctance to admit complexity.
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不愿意去承认快乐的复杂性。
01:07
It turns out that the word "happiness"
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事实证明快乐这个词
01:10
is just not a useful word anymore,
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已不再是常用词汇了，
01:13
because we apply it to too many different things.
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因为我们已用其来诠释太多的事物了。
01:16
I think there is one particular meaning to which we might restrict it,
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我想我们应该限定它的意思，
01:19
but by and large,
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不过，一般而言，
01:21
this is something that we'll have to give up
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我们得放弃这个想法
01:23
and we'll have to adopt the more complicated view
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并用更复杂的观点来看
01:27
of what well-being is.
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何谓快乐生活。
01:29
The second trap is a confusion between experience and memory;
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第二个陷阱是经验和记忆间的混淆：
01:33
basically, it's between being happy in your life,
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基本上这是在生活中体会快乐
01:36
and being happy about your life
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和觉得生活很快乐
01:38
or happy with your life.
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以及对于你的生活满意之间的差别。
01:40
And those are two very different concepts,
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这两者的意义相距甚远，
01:42
and they're both lumped in the notion of happiness.
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且在论及快乐时会混为一谈。
01:45
And the third is the focusing illusion,
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第三个陷阱则是聚焦错觉，
01:48
and it's the unfortunate fact that we can't think about any circumstance
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令人遗憾的是，任何情况下，当我们想到一些
01:51
that affects well-being
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关于快乐生活的情景时，
01:53
without distorting its importance.
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我们势必会觉得它特别重要。
01:55
I mean, this is a real cognitive trap.
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我的意思是，这是一个真正的认知陷阱。
01:58
There's just no way of getting it right.
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它避无可避。
02:01
Now, I'd like to start with an example
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现在，我想以一个例子来开头，
02:03
of somebody who had a question-and-answer session
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有个人上过我的课后
02:08
after one of my lectures reported a story,
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于答问之时向我讲述了一则故事。
02:12
and that was a story --
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[不清...]
02:13
He said he'd been listening to a symphony,
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他说他有次在听交响乐时
02:16
and it was absolutely glorious music
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觉得音乐真是动听极了，
02:19
and at the very end of the recording,
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但在演奏快结束之时，
02:22
there was a dreadful screeching sound.
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却冒出了尖锐刺耳的声音。
02:24
And then he added, really quite emotionally,
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接着他激动地表示
02:26
it ruined the whole experience.
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这就是一只老鼠坏了一锅粥。
02:30
But it hadn't.
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但事实并非如此。
02:32
What it had ruined were the memories of the experience.
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所发生的糟糕印象仅仅是对这段经验的记忆。
02:35
He had had the experience.
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他经历了这段经验。
02:37
He had had 20 minutes of glorious music.
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他也经历了20分钟的听觉盛会。
02:39
They counted for nothing
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但现在都已无足轻重了，
02:41
because he was left with a memory;
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因为他仅留下一段记忆；
02:44
the memory was ruined,
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就是那段糟糕的记忆，
02:46
and the memory was all that he had gotten to keep.
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而其它20分钟的盛会则被完全遗忘了。
02:49
What this is telling us, really,
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这告诉我们，
02:52
is that we might be thinking of ourselves and of other people
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我们在思考自己和别人时，
02:54
in terms of two selves.
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用了两种自我。
02:56
There is an experiencing self,
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第一种则为经验自我，
02:59
who lives in the present
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这种自我活在当下，
03:01
and knows the present,
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洞察当下，
03:03
is capable of re-living the past,
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同时也能回味过往，
03:05
but basically it has only the present.
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但基本上他只属于当下。
03:08
It's the experiencing self that the doctor approaches --
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一般医生接触的皆是经验自我--
03:11
you know, when the doctor asks,
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正如，当医生问你，
03:12
"Does it hurt now when I touch you here?"
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“我碰你这里时会疼么？”
03:16
And then there is a remembering self,
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另一个自我则是记忆自我，
03:19
and the remembering self is the one that keeps score,
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他负责记录生活，
03:23
and maintains the story of our life,
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抒写生活故事，
03:25
and it's the one that the doctor approaches
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医生要找他时
03:28
in asking the question,
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会这么问，
03:30
"How have you been feeling lately?"
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“最近感觉如何？”
03:33
or "How was your trip to Albania?" or something like that.
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或“去阿尔巴尼亚好玩么？”等类似的问题。
03:36
Those are two very different entities,
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经验自我和记忆自我
03:39
the experiencing self and the remembering self,
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是截然不同的，
03:42
and getting confused between them is part of the mess
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两者的混淆是导致我们不懂快乐的
03:46
about the notion of happiness.
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部分原因。
03:49
Now, the remembering self
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记忆自我
03:52
is a storyteller.
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负责讲述故事。
03:55
And that really starts with a basic response of our memories --
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故事从记忆中直接撷取--
03:59
it starts immediately.
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即时上传。
04:01
We don't only tell stories when we set out to tell stories.
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并不是我们在讲我们要讲的故事。
04:04
Our memory tells us stories,
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是我们的记忆在讲故事，
04:07
that is, what we get to keep from our experiences
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它是我们从经验中储存下来的
04:09
is a story.
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故事。
04:11
And let me begin with one example.
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让我用一个例子开始。
04:16
This is an old study.
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这是一个古老的研究。
04:18
Those are actual patients undergoing a painful procedure.
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一些真正的病人将会接受一种痛苦的治疗方法。
04:21
I won't go into detail. It's no longer painful these days,
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细节不再详述。现今的疗法已不再如此难受，
04:24
but it was painful when this study was run in the 1990s.
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但在研究进行的九十年代时，这种方法令人痛不欲生。
04:28
They were asked to report on their pain every 60 seconds.
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病人每隔六十秒则必须报告他们的痛苦指数。
04:31
Here are two patients,
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这边有两位病患。
04:34
those are their recordings.
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这是他们的记录。
04:36
And you are asked, "Who of them suffered more?"
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我问你：“在他们之中谁最痛苦？”
04:39
And it's a very easy question.
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这个问题很简单。
04:41
Clearly, Patient B suffered more --
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显然，是病人B。
04:43
his colonoscopy was longer,
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他的结肠镜检查时间较长，
04:45
and every minute of pain that Patient A had,
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病人A每分钟感觉的痛疼
04:48
Patient B had, and more.
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病人B也感觉到了，而且持续更久。
04:51
But now there is another question:
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但现在还有另一个问题：
04:54
"How much did these patients think they suffered?"
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这些患者认为他们受罪了吗？
04:57
And here is a surprise.
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这里有个小意外：
04:59
The surprise is that Patient A
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令人惊讶的是病人A
05:01
had a much worse memory of the colonoscopy
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对结肠镜检查的记忆比病人B
05:04
than Patient B.
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还糟糕。
05:06
The stories of the colonoscopies were different,
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两段结肠镜检查的故事不同，
05:09
and because a very critical part of the story is how it ends.
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这关键在于故事的结尾--
05:15
And neither of these stories is very inspiring or great --
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两个故事都不怎么启迪智慧--
05:18
but one of them is this distinct ... (Laughter)
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但两者显然是不同的...(笑声)
05:22
but one of them is distinctly worse than the other.
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显然其中之一的感受比另一个还差。
05:25
And the one that is worse
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感觉较糟的这一个
05:27
is the one where pain was at its peak at the very end;
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是在最后的时期里知晓什么是痛绝人寰。
05:30
it's a bad story.
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这不是个好故事。
05:32
How do we know that?
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我们是怎么知道的？
05:34
Because we asked these people after their colonoscopy,
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因为我们在检查结束后问他们，
05:37
and much later, too,
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以及在很久之后再问一次他们，
05:38
"How bad was the whole thing, in total?"
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“你们对结肠镜检查的整体印象如何？”
05:40
And it was much worse for A than for B, in memory.
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结果是A的记忆感觉明显要比B更糟糕。
05:44
Now this is a direct conflict
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现在这是经验自我和记忆自我
05:46
between the experiencing self and the remembering self.
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之间的直接冲突。
05:49
From the point of view of the experiencing self,
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从经验自我的角度来看，
05:52
clearly, B had a worse time.
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病人B显然是比较难受的。
05:54
Now, what you could do with Patient A,
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那么病人A的情况该如何解释，
05:57
and we actually ran clinical experiments,
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我们实际做了一个临床试验，
06:00
and it has been done, and it does work --
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当实验完成时，我们也得到了预期的结果，
06:02
you could actually extend the colonoscopy of Patient A
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事实上我们可以延长病人A的检查时间
06:07
by just keeping the tube in without jiggling it too much.
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从而减缓导管的震动程度。
06:10
That will cause the patient
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虽然病人还是会疼，
06:13
to suffer, but just a little
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但已减轻
06:16
and much less than before.
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许多了。
06:18
And if you do that for a couple of minutes,
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假如继续这样下去，
06:20
you have made the experiencing self
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你将会使病人A的经验自我的
06:22
of Patient A worse off,
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感觉更糟，
06:24
and you have the remembering self of Patient A
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但病人A的记忆自我
06:27
a lot better off,
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则会感觉好多了，
06:29
because now you have endowed Patient A
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因为你给了病人A
06:31
with a better story
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一个好一点的故事，
06:33
about his experience.
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一个好一点记忆他病痛经历的故事。
06:36
What defines a story?
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怎样给故事定义好坏？
06:39
And that is true of the stories
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并且记忆告诉我们的故事
06:41
that memory delivers for us,
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是真实的，
06:43
and it's also true of the stories that we make up.
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我们讲述的故事也是真的。
06:46
What defines a story are changes,
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故事的好坏取决于高潮时分
06:50
significant moments and endings.
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及结尾时刻。
06:53
Endings are very, very important
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结尾是非常重要的，
06:55
and, in this case, the ending dominated.
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上面的这个故事就是由结尾所主导的。
06:59
Now, the experiencing self
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现在，经验自我
07:01
lives its life continuously.
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延续这个生活经验。
07:04
It has moments of experience, one after the other.
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他也拥有片刻的经验，一个接一个。
07:07
And you can ask: What happens to these moments?
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你会问：“这些片刻怎么了？”
07:10
And the answer is really straightforward:
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答案很简单。
07:12
They are lost forever.
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他们永远消失了。
07:14
I mean, most of the moments of our life --
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我们生活中的大多片刻--
07:16
and I calculated, you know, the psychological present
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我算了算--从心理学角度来说
07:19
is said to be about three seconds long;
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仅仅只是三秒长。
07:21
that means that, you know,
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这意味着
07:23
in a life there are about 600 million of them;
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人一生中大约有六亿个片刻。
07:25
in a month, there are about 600,000 --
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一个月里则大约有六十万个片刻。
07:28
most of them don't leave a trace.
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它们大多不留痕迹。
07:32
Most of them are completely ignored
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大多数皆被记忆自我
07:34
by the remembering self.
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全然忽视了。
07:36
And yet, somehow you get the sense
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然而，你现在亦应发现
07:38
that they should count,
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一些感觉被储存，
07:40
that what happens during these moments of experience
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因为我们经验中的每分每秒合在一起
07:43
is our life.
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就构成了我们的人生。
07:45
It's the finite resource that we're spending
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只要我们活着，
07:47
while we're on this earth.
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我们就会消耗这些有限的资源。
07:49
And how to spend it
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该如何使用它们，
07:51
would seem to be relevant,
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似乎是很重要的，
07:53
but that is not the story
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但这不是记忆自我
07:55
that the remembering self keeps for us.
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所留给我们的故事。
07:57
So we have the remembering self
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因此记忆自我
07:59
and the experiencing self,
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和经验自我
08:01
and they're really quite distinct.
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是很好区别的。
08:03
The biggest difference between them
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他们之间的最大不同
08:05
is in the handling of time.
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是在于处理时间的方式。
08:08
From the point of view of the experiencing self,
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就经验自我而言，
08:11
if you have a vacation,
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如果你有一个假期，
08:13
and the second week is just as good as the first,
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第二周和第一周同等快乐，
08:16
then the two-week vacation
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那么两周下来
08:19
is twice as good as the one-week vacation.
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快乐的分量是一周假期的两倍多。
08:22
That's not the way it works at all for the remembering self.
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然而记忆自我则不是这样算的。
08:25
For the remembering self, a two-week vacation
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对记忆自我来说，两周假期
08:27
is barely better than the one-week vacation
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并不比一周假期多多少，
08:30
because there are no new memories added.
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因为期间没有任何新记忆的加入。
08:32
You have not changed the story.
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故事的剧情依然如旧。
08:35
And in this way,
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因此
08:37
time is actually the critical variable
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时间是区分
08:40
that distinguishes a remembering self
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记忆自我和经验自我的
08:43
from an experiencing self;
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关键因素。
08:45
time has very little impact on the story.
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时间对这个故事的影响不大。
08:49
Now, the remembering self does more
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记忆自我所做的
08:52
than remember and tell stories.
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不仅是记忆和讲述故事。
08:54
It is actually the one that makes decisions
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它也是真正做决定的因素，
08:58
because, if you have a patient who has had, say,
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因为，假若你的病人已经历
09:00
two colonoscopies with two different surgeons
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过两位不同的外科医生来做胃肠镜检查，
09:03
and is deciding which of them to choose,
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而现在决定从他们中选一位来再做检查时，
09:06
then the one that chooses
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病人选的将会是
09:09
is the one that has the memory that is less bad,
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记忆中感觉比较好的那位，
09:13
and that's the surgeon that will be chosen.
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这就是如何选定医生的。
09:15
The experiencing self
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经验自我
09:17
has no voice in this choice.
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在做选择是则无从置喙。
09:20
We actually don't choose between experiences,
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事实上，我们不会在两段经验中做选择。
09:23
we choose between memories of experiences.
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我们是在两种不同经验的记忆中做出选择。
09:26
And even when we think about the future,
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而且当我们设想未来时，
09:29
we don't think of our future normally as experiences.
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一般我们不会以经验的形式去思考。
09:32
We think of our future
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我们把未来
09:34
as anticipated memories.
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以预想的记忆形式呈现。
09:37
And basically you can look at this,
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大体上你可以看到，
09:39
you know, as a tyranny of the remembering self,
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记忆自我是专制的，
09:42
and you can think of the remembering self
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你可以想象记忆自我
09:44
sort of dragging the experiencing self
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在拽着经验自我，
09:46
through experiences that
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他是通过经验自我不要的经验
09:48
the experiencing self doesn't need.
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来拽着经验自我的。
09:50
I have that sense that
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我有个想法，
09:52
when we go on vacations
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当我们放假时
09:54
this is very frequently the case;
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往往
09:56
that is, we go on vacations,
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之所以放假，
09:58
to a very large extent,
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有很大一部分
10:00
in the service of our remembering self.
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是为了记忆自我。
10:03
And this is a bit hard to justify I think.
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我想这有点难来辩证。
10:06
I mean, how much do we consume our memories?
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我们使用了多少的记忆？
10:09
That is one of the explanations
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这可以解释
10:11
that is given for the dominance
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记忆自我
10:13
of the remembering self.
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为何能成为主导的自我。
10:15
And when I think about that, I think about a vacation
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这让我想起一次假期，
10:17
we had in Antarctica a few years ago,
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几年前在南极度过的假期，
10:20
which was clearly the best vacation I've ever had,
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这可以说是我最棒的一个假期，
10:23
and I think of it relatively often,
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与其它假期相比，
10:25
relative to how much I think of other vacations.
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我常常会想起这个假期。
10:27
And I probably have consumed
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这趟旅程大概让我用掉了
10:31
my memories of that three-week trip, I would say,
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三周的记忆量，
10:33
for about 25 minutes in the last four years.
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大概仅在过去四年中占了约25分钟。
10:36
Now, if I had ever opened the folder
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现在，如我打开资料夹
10:39
with the 600 pictures in it,
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里面大概有600张相片，
10:42
I would have spent another hour.
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我可能要花一个小时来回忆。
10:44
Now, that is three weeks,
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三周的旅程
10:46
and that is at most an hour and a half.
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最多只用一个半小时来回忆。
10:48
There seems to be a discrepancy.
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这似乎不成比例啊。
10:50
Now, I may be a bit extreme, you know,
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这让我有点不满，
10:52
in how little appetite I have for consuming memories,
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因为我记得真是太少了，
10:55
but even if you do more of this,
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不过就算你记得再多
10:58
there is a genuine question:
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这里也会有个实际的问题。
11:01
Why do we put so much weight on memory
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为什么我们用来记忆
11:05
relative to the weight that we put on experiences?
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比依赖经验还多？
11:08
So I want you to think
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所以我希望你能思考
11:10
about a thought experiment.
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一个有关思考的实验。
11:13
Imagine that for your next vacation,
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假使你的下一个假期，
11:15
you know that at the end of the vacation
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当你知道假期结束后
11:18
all your pictures will be destroyed,
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假期中所有的相片将被销毁时，
11:21
and you'll get an amnesic drug
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而你也会吞下一颗遗忘药
11:23
so that you won't remember anything.
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以使你遗忘一切。
11:25
Now, would you choose the same vacation? (Laughter)
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这样，你还会想过同样的假期么？(笑声)
11:29
And if you would choose a different vacation,
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如果你选了个不同的假期，
11:34
there is a conflict between your two selves,
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你的两个自我之间将会产生冲突，
11:36
and you need to think about how to adjudicate that conflict,
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你得想法来裁决这场冲突，
11:39
and it's actually not at all obvious, because
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这并不怎么容易，
11:42
if you think in terms of time,
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因为假若你仅考虑时间
11:45
then you get one answer,
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你会得到一个答案。
11:48
and if you think in terms of memories,
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但若仅考虑记忆
11:51
you might get another answer.
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你会得到另外一个答案。
11:53
Why do we pick the vacations we do
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我们为什么要选此而非彼，
11:56
is a problem that confronts us
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这个困扰我们的问题
11:59
with a choice between the two selves.
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是需要在两个自我之间作出选择。
12:01
Now, the two selves
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现在，两个自我
12:04
bring up two notions of happiness.
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带来对快乐的两种不同见解。
12:06
There are really two concepts of happiness
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这两种对快乐的见解
12:08
that we can apply, one per self.
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分别对应了两个自我。
12:11
So you can ask: How happy is the experiencing self?
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因此你会问：“经验自我是有多快乐？”
12:16
And then you would ask: How happy are the moments
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接着你会问：“经验自我的每一刻
12:18
in the experiencing self's life?
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有多快乐？”
12:21
And they're all -- happiness for moments
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这些快乐时刻的组成过程
12:23
is a fairly complicated process.
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是异常复杂的。
12:25
What are the emotions that can be measured?
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情感该如何测量？
12:28
And, by the way, now we are capable
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顺带一提，我们现在
12:30
of getting a pretty good idea
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对于经验自我会随着时间而感受快乐
12:32
of the happiness of the experiencing self over time.
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已经有了一个粗浅的概念了。
12:38
If you ask for the happiness of the remembering self,
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而记忆自我所指的快乐
12:41
it's a completely different thing.
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则是完全两码事。
12:43
This is not about how happily a person lives.
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这并不是一个人生活多快乐的问题。
12:46
It is about how satisfied or pleased the person is
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而是它对自己的人生
12:49
when that person thinks about her life.
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有多满意和多喜欢的问题。
12:53
Very different notion.
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迥然不同的见解。
12:55
Anyone who doesn't distinguish those notions
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若不能分辨这两种见解
12:58
is going to mess up the study of happiness,
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就无法参透快乐这门学问，
13:00
and I belong to a crowd of students of well-being,
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我和其他活得好的学生一样，
13:03
who've been messing up the study of happiness for a long time
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一直以来都研究不透快乐，
13:07
in precisely this way.
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就是因为这个原因。
13:09
The distinction between the
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近年来，
13:11
happiness of the experiencing self
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经验自我的快乐
13:13
and the satisfaction of the remembering self
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和记忆自我的满足的
13:16
has been recognized in recent years,
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差异性已能分清，
13:18
and there are now efforts to measure the two separately.
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目前正努力来分别测度两者，
13:21
The Gallup Organization has a world poll
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盖洛普公司最近在全世界举行了一场民意调查，
13:24
where more than half a million people
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其中逾五十万人
13:26
have been asked questions
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都被问及一个类似的问题，
13:28
about what they think of their life
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那就是他们如何看待他们的生活
13:30
and about their experiences,
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和如何看待他们的经验。
13:32
and there have been other efforts along those lines.
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除了这个问题，这个公司还做了其它的调查。
13:35
So in recent years, we have begun to learn
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近年来，我们逐渐得知
13:38
about the happiness of the two selves.
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关于两种快乐见解的信息。
13:41
And the main lesson I think that we have learned
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我认为我们主要学到的便是
13:44
is they are really different.
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两者是天壤之别的。
13:46
You can know how satisfied somebody is with their life,
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虽然你可以得知一个人对生活是否满意，
13:51
and that really doesn't teach you much
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但却无法告诉你
13:53
about how happily they're living their life,
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他们平常活的有多快乐，
13:56
and vice versa.
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而反之亦然。
13:58
Just to give you a sense of the correlation,
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只是为了让你对其中的关联性有个基本概念，
14:00
the correlation is about .5.
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它们之间大概只有50%关联。
14:02
What that means is if you met somebody,
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意思是当你见到某个人时，
14:05
and you were told, "Oh his father is six feet tall,"
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你被告知他的爸爸有六尺高，
14:09
how much would you know about his height?
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你能知道这个人有多高么？
14:11
Well, you would know something about his height,
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好吧，你可能有个基本概念，
14:13
but there's a lot of uncertainty.
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但非常不确定。
14:15
You have that much uncertainty.
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你无法下判定。
14:17
If I tell you that somebody ranked their life eight on a scale of ten,
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若我说有人给自己的生活质量打分，他打8/10分，
14:21
you have a lot of uncertainty
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你也不能把握
14:23
about how happy they are
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他们的经验自我
14:25
with their experiencing self.
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有多么快乐。
14:27
So the correlation is low.
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所以关联性很低。
14:29
We know something about what controls
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我们知道什么能够
14:32
satisfaction of the happiness self.
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让人的快乐得到满足。
14:34
We know that money is very important,
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我们知道钱是很重要的，
14:36
goals are very important.
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目标也非常重要。
14:38
We know that happiness is mainly
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我们知道要快乐是需要通过
14:42
being satisfied with people that we like,
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我们所喜爱的人来满足，
14:45
spending time with people that we like.
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是需要花时间和他们待在一起来满足。
14:48
There are other pleasures, but this is dominant.
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虽然还有其它因素，但这是主要因素。
14:50
So if you want to maximize the happiness of the two selves,
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所以假若你想让两个自我都快乐，
14:53
you are going to end up
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你必须抛弃旧习
14:55
doing very different things.
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且要做些与众不同的事。
14:57
The bottom line of what I've said here
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我说的是，我们至少
14:59
is that we really should not think of happiness
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不应把快乐当成活得好的
15:03
as a substitute for well-being.
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代名词。
15:05
It is a completely different notion.
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这两者是天壤之别的。
15:08
Now, very quickly,
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现在，很快地讨论下
15:11
another reason we cannot think straight about happiness
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另一个我们不能理解快乐本质的原因，
15:15
is that we do not attend to the same things
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那就是我们怎么看生活
15:22
when we think about life, and we actually live.
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和我们怎么过生活是不一样的。
15:25
So, if you ask the simple question of how happy people are in California,
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所以，当你问加州的人有多快乐时，
15:30
you are not going to get to the correct answer.
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你将无法得到正确答案。
15:33
When you ask that question,
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因为当你这样问时，
15:35
you think people must be happier in California
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你认为加州人一定过得比较快乐，
15:37
if, say, you live in Ohio.
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而你则住在俄亥俄州。
15:39
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
15:41
And what happens is
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当你在想
15:44
when you think about living in California,
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住在加州有多快乐时，
15:48
you are thinking of the contrast
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你会想到加州和其他州域
15:50
between California and other places,
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之间的差异性，
15:53
and that contrast, say, is in climate.
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譬如，气候。
15:55
Well, it turns out that climate
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事实证明气候条件
15:57
is not very important to the experiencing self
352
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对于经验自我并非很重要
16:00
and it's not even very important to the reflective self
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而且对于思考自我
16:03
that decides how happy people are.
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衡量自己有多快乐也不太重要。
16:06
But now, because the reflective self is in charge,
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不过，既然现实由思考自我主导，
16:10
you may end up -- some people may end up
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一些人可能会得到这样一种结论，
16:12
moving to California.
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那就是搬到加州。
16:14
And it's sort of interesting to trace what is going to happen
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他们搬去加州是为了过上更快乐的生活，
16:17
to people who move to California in the hope of getting happier.
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是而追踪观看他们的后续发展，将会是一件相当有趣的事。
16:20
Well, their experiencing self
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他们的经验自我
16:22
is not going to get happier.
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是不会变得更快乐。
16:24
We know that.
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这我们都知道。
16:27
But one thing will happen: They will think they are happier,
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不过当一件事发生后，他们会觉得自己快乐多了。
16:30
because, when they think about it,
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因为在他们思考时，
16:34
they'll be reminded of how horrible the weather was in Ohio,
365
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他们会回想起俄亥俄州的坏天气。
16:38
and they will feel they made the right decision.
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他们也因此觉得他们做出了正确的决定。
16:41
It is very difficult
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要理解快乐生活
16:43
to think straight about well-being,
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实在很难，
16:45
and I hope I have given you a sense
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我希望我已经让你们对此有个基本概念，
16:48
of how difficult it is.
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并且明白这个过程到底有多难。
16:50
Thank you.
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谢谢。
16:52
(Applause)
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(鼓掌)
16:55
Chris Anderson: Thank you. I've got a question for you.
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克里斯·安德森：谢谢您的演讲。我有个问题想请教您。
16:59
Thank you so much.
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非常感谢您的演说。
17:01
Now, when we were on the phone a few weeks ago,
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几星期前，我们有过一次电话通讯，
17:05
you mentioned to me that there was quite an interesting result
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当时您提到您从盖洛普的调查中
17:08
came out of that Gallup survey.
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发现了一个有趣的现象。
17:10
Is that something you can share
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请问您可以跟我们分享一下吗？
17:12
since you do have a few moments left now?
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我们还有几分钟的时间。
17:14
Daniel Kahneman: Sure.
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丹尼尔·卡纳曼：没问题。
17:16
I think the most interesting result that we found in the Gallup survey
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我从盖洛普调查中发现了一个极有趣的数字，
17:19
is a number, which we absolutely did not expect to find.
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能发现它实属意外。
17:22
We found that with respect to the happiness
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我们发现一个关于
17:24
of the experiencing self.
384
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经验自我的快乐的现象。
17:27
When we looked at how feelings,
385
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那就是人的感觉
17:32
vary with income.
386
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会随收入的多少而变化。
17:34
And it turns out that, below an income
387
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结果表明，对于年收入低于六万美元的
17:37
of 60,000 dollars a year, for Americans --
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3000
美国人而言，
17:40
and that's a very large sample of Americans, like 600,000,
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这占了样本中的很大一部分，
17:43
so it's a large representative sample --
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将近有六十万人，这些人是相当具有指标性的，
17:45
below an income of 600,000 dollars a year...
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这些年收入低于六十万美元......
17:47
CA: 60,000.
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安德森：是六万美元。
17:49
DK: 60,000.
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卡纳曼：六万美元。
17:51
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
17:53
60,000 dollars a year, people are unhappy,
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年收入六万美元的人是不快乐的，
17:57
and they get progressively unhappier the poorer they get.
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而且收入越低，他们则逾不快乐。
18:00
Above that, we get an absolutely flat line.
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而当收入逾六万时，我们则得到一条标准水平线。
18:03
I mean I've rarely seen lines so flat.
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难得看到这么平坦的线。
18:06
Clearly, what is happening is
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显然
18:08
money does not buy you experiential happiness,
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金钱是无法买到经验自我的快乐，
18:11
but lack of money certainly buys you misery,
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但没钱却的确能给你带来悲郁的境况，
18:14
and we can measure that misery
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而且我们清楚地测到痛苦的程度，
18:16
very, very clearly.
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非常清楚。
18:18
In terms of the other self, the remembering self,
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对于另一个自我，记忆自我而言。
18:21
you get a different story.
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你则有了一个大相迳庭的故事。
18:23
The more money you earn, the more satisfied you are.
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你赚的越多，你就越满意。
18:26
That does not hold for emotions.
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这跟情感没有任何关联。
18:28
CA: But Danny, the whole American endeavor is about
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安德森：可是丹尼，生命、自由和追求快乐
18:31
life, liberty, the pursuit of happiness.
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是所有美国人奋斗的目标。
18:34
If people took seriously that finding,
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假若大家都认真对待这一发现，
18:38
I mean, it seems to turn upside down
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那么，这将颠覆我们
18:41
everything we believe about, like for example,
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固有的观念，例如，
18:43
taxation policy and so forth.
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课税政策等。
18:45
Is there any chance that politicians, that the country generally,
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这个国家的政治人物有没有可能
18:48
would take a finding like that seriously
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会正视这样的发现
18:51
and run public policy based on it?
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并且依次施政？
18:53
DK: You know I think that there is recognition
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卡纳曼：我认为已有人认知到研究快乐
18:55
of the role of happiness research in public policy.
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于谋划政策中的地位。
18:58
The recognition is going to be slow in the United States,
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但这项认知于美国的传播速度颇慢，
19:00
no question about that,
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这是毋庸置疑的，
19:02
but in the U.K., it is happening,
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但在英国，它正持续发酵，
19:04
and in other countries it is happening.
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其他国家亦然。
19:06
People are recognizing that they ought
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一般人也开始认知到
19:09
to be thinking of happiness
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在谋划政策时
19:11
when they think of public policy.
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亦应将快乐纳入考量指标。
19:13
It's going to take a while,
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虽然这将花些时间，
19:15
and people are going to debate
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但人们也将开始思考。
19:18
whether they want to study experience happiness,
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他们要的是经验的快乐
19:20
or whether they want to study life evaluation,
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抑或是为生活打分，
19:22
so we need to have that debate fairly soon.
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因此很快，我们将要理解这个问题。
19:25
How to enhance happiness
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如何增进快乐，
19:27
goes very different ways depending on how you think,
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有好几种方式，但事关你是怎么想的，
19:30
and whether you think of the remembering self
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你想的是记忆自我
19:32
or you think of the experiencing self.
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还是在想经验自我。
19:34
This is going to influence policy, I think, in years to come.
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我想于几年之内，这将影响政策的实施。
19:37
In the United States, efforts are being made
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美国已经付出巨大的努力来衡量
19:40
to measure the experience happiness of the population.
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大众的经验的快乐。
19:43
This is going to be, I think, within the next decade or two,
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我想在十年或二十年内，
19:46
part of national statistics.
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这将会成为国家统计数据的一部分。
19:48
CA: Well, it seems to me that this issue will -- or at least should be --
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安德森：这个议题对于我来说
19:52
the most interesting policy discussion to track
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将会是未来几年里
19:54
over the next few years.
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最有的一个政策讨论议题。
19:56
Thank you so much for inventing behavioral economics.
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非常感谢您所创造的行为经济学。
19:58
Thank you, Danny Kahneman.
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非常感谢丹尼尔·卡纳曼。
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Daniel Kahneman - Behavioral economics founderWidely regarded as the world's most influential living psychologist, Daniel Kahneman won the Nobel in Economics for his pioneering work in behavioral economics -- exploring the irrational ways we make decisions about risk.
Why you should listen
Daniel Kahneman is an eminence grise for the Freakonomics crowd. In the mid-1970s, with his collaborator Amos Tversky, he was among the first academics to pick apart exactly why we make "wrong" decisions. In their 1979 paper on prospect theory, Kahneman and Tversky examined a simple problem of economic risk. And rather than stating the optimal, rational answer, as an economist of the time might have, they quantified how most real people, consistently, make a less-rational choice. Their work treated economics not as a perfect or self-correcting machine, but as a system prey to quirks of human perception. The field of behavioral economics was born.
Kahneman was awarded the Nobel Memorial prize in 2002 for his work with Tversky, who died before the award was bestowed. In a lovely passage in his Nobel biography, Kahneman looks back on his deep collaboration with Tversky and calls for a new form of academic cooperation, marked not by turf battles but by "adversarial collaboration," a good-faith effort by unlike minds to conduct joint research, critiquing each other in the service of an ideal of truth to which both can contribute.
Daniel Kahneman | Speaker | TED.com