TED2010
Daniel Kahneman: The riddle of experience vs. memory
Daniel Kahneman: Zagonetka iskustva nasuprot pamćenju
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Na primjerima od putovanja do kolonoskopije, nobelovac i osnivač bihevioralne ekonomije Daniel Kahneman otkriva kako naše "iskustveno jastvo" i naše "pamteće jastvo" percipiraju sreću na različit način. Takav novi uvid ima duboki utjecaj na ekonomiju, politiku - i našu svijest o sebi.
Daniel Kahneman - Behavioral economics founder
Widely regarded as the world's most influential living psychologist, Daniel Kahneman won the Nobel in Economics for his pioneering work in behavioral economics -- exploring the irrational ways we make decisions about risk. Full bio
Widely regarded as the world's most influential living psychologist, Daniel Kahneman won the Nobel in Economics for his pioneering work in behavioral economics -- exploring the irrational ways we make decisions about risk. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Everybody talks about happiness these days.
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Svi govore o sreći ovih dana.
00:18
I had somebody count the number of books
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Dao sam prebrojiti knjige
00:21
with "happiness" in the title published in the last five years
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s naslovom "sreća", izdanih u posljednjih pet godina;
00:24
and they gave up after about 40, and there were many more.
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odustali su nakon četrdesete - bilo ih je mnogo više.
00:29
There is a huge wave of interest in happiness,
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Postoji široki interes za temu "sreća",
00:32
among researchers.
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među istraživačima.
00:34
There is a lot of happiness coaching.
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Ima mnogo podučavanja sreće.
00:36
Everybody would like to make people happier.
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Svi bi zapravo htjeli učiniti ljude sretnijima.
00:38
But in spite of all this flood of work,
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No unatoč svom uloženom trudu,
00:42
there are several cognitive traps
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postoji nekoliko kognitivnih zamki
00:44
that sort of make it almost impossible to think straight
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koje gotovo onemogućuju donošenje jasnog suda
00:47
about happiness.
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o sreći.
00:49
And my talk today will be mostly about these cognitive traps.
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Moj govor danas biti će uglavnom o takvim kognitivnim zamkama.
00:52
This applies to laypeople thinking about their own happiness,
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To je primjenjivo i za laike koji razmišljaju o vlastitoj sreći,
00:55
and it applies to scholars thinking about happiness,
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ali i za učenjake koji razmišljaju o sreći općenito,
00:58
because it turns out we're just as messed up as anybody else is.
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jer se ispostavlja kako smo i mi u tome izgubljeni kao i svi ostali.
01:02
The first of these traps
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Prva od zamki jest
01:04
is a reluctance to admit complexity.
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nevoljkost za priznanjem kompleksnosti problema.
01:07
It turns out that the word "happiness"
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Ispostavilo se da riječ sreća
01:10
is just not a useful word anymore,
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jednostavno više nije praktična riječ
01:13
because we apply it to too many different things.
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jer ju koristimo za niz različitih značenja.
01:16
I think there is one particular meaning to which we might restrict it,
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Smatram kako postoji jedno određeno značenje na koje bismo ju mogli ograničiti
01:19
but by and large,
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ali,
01:21
this is something that we'll have to give up
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tu je nešto čega bismo se trebali odreći
01:23
and we'll have to adopt the more complicated view
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i usvojiti mnogo složeniji pogled
01:27
of what well-being is.
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oko toga što je blagostanje.
01:29
The second trap is a confusion between experience and memory;
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Druga zamka jest zbunjenost između iskustva i pamćenja:
01:33
basically, it's between being happy in your life,
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radi se o tome jeste li u životu sretni
01:36
and being happy about your life
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i sretni oko svog života
01:38
or happy with your life.
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ili sretni sa svojim životom.
01:40
And those are two very different concepts,
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To su dva vrlo različita koncepta,
01:42
and they're both lumped in the notion of happiness.
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koji su sjedinjeni u pojmu sreće.
01:45
And the third is the focusing illusion,
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A treća je zamka iluzija koncentracije
01:48
and it's the unfortunate fact that we can't think about any circumstance
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i podrazumjeva nesretnu činjenicu zbog koje ne možemo misliti niti o jednoj okolnosti
01:51
that affects well-being
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koja utječe na blagostanje
01:53
without distorting its importance.
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bez da iskrivimo samu njenu važnost.
01:55
I mean, this is a real cognitive trap.
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Tvrdim da je to prava kognitivna zamka.
01:58
There's just no way of getting it right.
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Jednostavno nema načina da ju se zaobiđe.
02:01
Now, I'd like to start with an example
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Sada bih želio početi s primjerom
02:03
of somebody who had a question-and-answer session
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jedne osobe koja je rješavala anketu
02:08
after one of my lectures reported a story,
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nakon jednog mojeg predavanja i ispričala mi slijedeću stvar.
02:12
and that was a story --
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(nejasno...)
02:13
He said he'd been listening to a symphony,
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Rekao je da je slušao simfoniju,
02:16
and it was absolutely glorious music
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glazba je bila zaista zanosna,
02:19
and at the very end of the recording,
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i na samom kraju snimke,
02:22
there was a dreadful screeching sound.
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začulo se strašno škripanje.
02:24
And then he added, really quite emotionally,
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Onda mi je rekao, poprilično emotivno,
02:26
it ruined the whole experience.
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da mu je to zapravo upropastilo cijeli doživljaj.
02:30
But it hadn't.
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Ali zapravo i nije.
02:32
What it had ruined were the memories of the experience.
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Ono što je upropašteno bilo je samo sjećanje na to iskustvo.
02:35
He had had the experience.
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Imao je to iskustvo.
02:37
He had had 20 minutes of glorious music.
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Odslušao je 20 minuta zanosne glazbe.
02:39
They counted for nothing
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Ali kao da i nije
02:41
because he was left with a memory;
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jer njemu je ostalo samo sjećanje,
02:44
the memory was ruined,
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upropašteno sjećanje,
02:46
and the memory was all that he had gotten to keep.
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i to je jedino što mu je zapravo ostalo od svega.
02:49
What this is telling us, really,
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To nam zapravo govori,
02:52
is that we might be thinking of ourselves and of other people
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da bismo o samima sebi i ostalim ljudima mogli misliti
02:54
in terms of two selves.
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kao o dvaju jastvima.
02:56
There is an experiencing self,
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Postoji iskustveno jastvo
02:59
who lives in the present
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koje živi u sadašnjosti
03:01
and knows the present,
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i poznaje sadašnjost,
03:03
is capable of re-living the past,
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sposobno je proživljavati prošlost,
03:05
but basically it has only the present.
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ali zapravo ima samo sadašnjost.
03:08
It's the experiencing self that the doctor approaches --
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Liječnik pristupa iskustvenom jastvu
03:11
you know, when the doctor asks,
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znate, kada liječnik upita,
03:12
"Does it hurt now when I touch you here?"
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"Boli li kada Vas ovdje dotaknem?"
03:16
And then there is a remembering self,
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A imamo i pamteće jastvo,
03:19
and the remembering self is the one that keeps score,
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i upravo je to ono koje za nas bilježi sve
03:23
and maintains the story of our life,
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i održava priču o našem životu,
03:25
and it's the one that the doctor approaches
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i to je jastvo kojem liječnik pristupa
03:28
in asking the question,
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s pitanjem,
03:30
"How have you been feeling lately?"
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"Kako se osjećate u zadnje vrijeme?"
03:33
or "How was your trip to Albania?" or something like that.
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ili "Kako je bilo vaše putovanje u Albaniju?" ili nešto slično.
03:36
Those are two very different entities,
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To su dva različita entiteta,
03:39
the experiencing self and the remembering self,
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iskustveno i pamteće jastvo
03:42
and getting confused between them is part of the mess
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i ako se oko njih zabunimo - to je dio frke
03:46
about the notion of happiness.
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oko pojma sreće.
03:49
Now, the remembering self
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Pamteće jastvo
03:52
is a storyteller.
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je pripovijedač.
03:55
And that really starts with a basic response of our memories --
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Sve to zapravo počinje sa jednostavnim odgovorom našeg pamćenja -
03:59
it starts immediately.
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počinje odmah.
04:01
We don't only tell stories when we set out to tell stories.
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Mi ne pričamo priče samo kada to želimo.
04:04
Our memory tells us stories,
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Naše pamćenje nam priča priče,
04:07
that is, what we get to keep from our experiences
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odnosno, ono što nam ostaje od naših iskustava
04:09
is a story.
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jest zapravo priča.
04:11
And let me begin with one example.
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Dozvolite da iznesem jedan primjer.
04:16
This is an old study.
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Radi se o starom istraživanju.
04:18
Those are actual patients undergoing a painful procedure.
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Ono su stvarni pacijenti koji su podvrgnuti bolnoj proceduri.
04:21
I won't go into detail. It's no longer painful these days,
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Neću ići u detalje. Danas, to više nije bolno,
04:24
but it was painful when this study was run in the 1990s.
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ali je bilo u vrijeme kada je istraživanje provedeno 1990-ih.
04:28
They were asked to report on their pain every 60 seconds.
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Ispitanici su skavih 60 sekundi trebali javljati o boli koju osjećaju.
04:31
Here are two patients,
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Evo priče dvaju pacijenata.
04:34
those are their recordings.
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Ovo su njihove snimke.
04:36
And you are asked, "Who of them suffered more?"
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I kada bi Vas se pitalo, "Tko je od njih više patio?"
04:39
And it's a very easy question.
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Pitanje je vrlo jednostavno.
04:41
Clearly, Patient B suffered more --
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Jasno je da je pacijent B patio više.
04:43
his colonoscopy was longer,
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Njegova je kolonoskopija trajala duže,
04:45
and every minute of pain that Patient A had,
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i za svaku minutu boli koje je patio pacijent A
04:48
Patient B had, and more.
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pacijent B patio je jednu više.
04:51
But now there is another question:
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Ali evo sada drugog pitanja:
04:54
"How much did these patients think they suffered?"
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"Koliko ovi pacijenti misle da su patili?"
04:57
And here is a surprise.
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I evo iznenađenja:
04:59
The surprise is that Patient A
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Iznenađenje je slijedeće, pacijent A
05:01
had a much worse memory of the colonoscopy
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imao je znatno lošije sjećanje na kolonoskopiju
05:04
than Patient B.
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u odnosu na pacijenta B.
05:06
The stories of the colonoscopies were different,
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Priče ovih kolonoskopija su različite
05:09
and because a very critical part of the story is how it ends.
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i zato što je krtičan dio priče upravo njen završetak -
05:15
And neither of these stories is very inspiring or great --
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a niti jedna priča sama po sebi nije inspirirajuća ili lijepa -
05:18
but one of them is this distinct ... (Laughter)
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ali jedna od njih je toliko izrazito...(smijeh)
05:22
but one of them is distinctly worse than the other.
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ali jedna od njih je izrazito lošija od druge.
05:25
And the one that is worse
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A ova koja je lošija
05:27
is the one where pain was at its peak at the very end;
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jest ona gdje je bol bila na svom vrhuncu na samom kraju priče.
05:30
it's a bad story.
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Strašna je to priča.
05:32
How do we know that?
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Kako mi to zapravo znamo?
05:34
Because we asked these people after their colonoscopy,
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Zato što smo ljude nakon kolonoskopije upitali,
05:37
and much later, too,
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i to mnogo kasnije,
05:38
"How bad was the whole thing, in total?"
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"Koliko je bila strašna cijela ta procedura?"
05:40
And it was much worse for A than for B, in memory.
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i bilo je mnogo teže pacijentu A nego pacijentu B u njihovom pamćenju.
05:44
Now this is a direct conflict
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Ovo predstavlja direktan sukob
05:46
between the experiencing self and the remembering self.
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između iskustvenog jastva i pamtećeg jastva.
05:49
From the point of view of the experiencing self,
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Iz perspektive iskustvenog jastva,
05:52
clearly, B had a worse time.
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jasno da je pacijent B lošije prošao.
05:54
Now, what you could do with Patient A,
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No, što se sada može sa pacijentom A,
05:57
and we actually ran clinical experiments,
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mi smo na tome proveli kliničko istraživanje,
06:00
and it has been done, and it does work --
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i to uspješno,
06:02
you could actually extend the colonoscopy of Patient A
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mogli biste odužiti kolonoskopiju pacijentu A
06:07
by just keeping the tube in without jiggling it too much.
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samo držeći cijev unutra bez da ju puno pomičete.
06:10
That will cause the patient
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Tako će pacijent
06:13
to suffer, but just a little
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patiti, ali samo lagano
06:16
and much less than before.
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i puno manje nego ranije.
06:18
And if you do that for a couple of minutes,
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I ako biste to radili nekoliko minuta,
06:20
you have made the experiencing self
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naštetili biste iskustvenom jastvu
06:22
of Patient A worse off,
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pacijenta A,
06:24
and you have the remembering self of Patient A
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a pamtećem jastvu pacijenta A
06:27
a lot better off,
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biste zapravo ugodili,
06:29
because now you have endowed Patient A
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jer ste pacijentu A upravo podarili
06:31
with a better story
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ljepšu priču
06:33
about his experience.
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o njegovom iskustvu.
06:36
What defines a story?
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Što određuje priču?
06:39
And that is true of the stories
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I to je slučaj s pričama
06:41
that memory delivers for us,
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koje nam pamćenje dostavlja;
06:43
and it's also true of the stories that we make up.
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i to je također istina za priče koje izmišljamo.
06:46
What defines a story are changes,
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Priču određuju promjene,
06:50
significant moments and endings.
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značajni trenuci i završetci.
06:53
Endings are very, very important
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Završetci su jako, jako važni
06:55
and, in this case, the ending dominated.
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i, u ovom slučaju, završetak priče prevladava.
06:59
Now, the experiencing self
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Iskustveno jastvo,
07:01
lives its life continuously.
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živi svoj život neprekinuto.
07:04
It has moments of experience, one after the other.
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Ono ima iskustvene trenutke, jedan za drugim.
07:07
And you can ask: What happens to these moments?
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I pitate se: Što se događa tim trenucima?
07:10
And the answer is really straightforward:
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Odgovor je doista izravan.
07:12
They are lost forever.
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Oni su izgubljeni zauvijek.
07:14
I mean, most of the moments of our life --
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Naime, većina trenutaka našeg života -
07:16
and I calculated, you know, the psychological present
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tako sam izračunao - znate, za psihološku sadašnjost
07:19
is said to be about three seconds long;
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kaže se da traje tri sekunde.
07:21
that means that, you know,
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A to znači da, kao što znate,
07:23
in a life there are about 600 million of them;
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u jednom životu, ima otprilike 600 milijuna trenutaka.
07:25
in a month, there are about 600,000 --
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U mjesec dana, ima ih oko 600,000.
07:28
most of them don't leave a trace.
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Većina ih ne ostavi niti traga.
07:32
Most of them are completely ignored
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Većinu potpuno ignorira
07:34
by the remembering self.
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pamteće jastvo.
07:36
And yet, somehow you get the sense
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Pa ipak, nekako osjećate
07:38
that they should count,
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kako bi svi oni trebali biti važni
07:40
that what happens during these moments of experience
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i da ono što se događa u tim trenucima iskustva
07:43
is our life.
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čini naš život.
07:45
It's the finite resource that we're spending
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To je ograničeno sredstvo koje trošimo
07:47
while we're on this earth.
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dok smo tu na zemlji.
07:49
And how to spend it
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Način kako ga trošiti
07:51
would seem to be relevant,
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trebalo bi biti relevantno
07:53
but that is not the story
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ali to nije priča
07:55
that the remembering self keeps for us.
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koju pamteće jastvo čuva za nas.
07:57
So we have the remembering self
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Imamo pamteće jastvo
07:59
and the experiencing self,
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i iskustveno jastvo,
08:01
and they're really quite distinct.
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i oni su poprilično različiti.
08:03
The biggest difference between them
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Najveća razlika među njima
08:05
is in the handling of time.
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jest rukovanje vremenom.
08:08
From the point of view of the experiencing self,
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Iz perspektive iskustvenog jastva,
08:11
if you have a vacation,
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ako ste na odmoru,
08:13
and the second week is just as good as the first,
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i ako je drugi tjedan odmora dobar kao i prvi,
08:16
then the two-week vacation
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onda dvotjedni odmor
08:19
is twice as good as the one-week vacation.
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jest dvaput bolji od tjednog odmora.
08:22
That's not the way it works at all for the remembering self.
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To uopće nije način na koji doživljava pamteće jastvo.
08:25
For the remembering self, a two-week vacation
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Za pamteće jastvo, dvotjedni odmor
08:27
is barely better than the one-week vacation
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je jedva bolji od tjednog
08:30
because there are no new memories added.
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jer nema novih sjećanja koja se stvaraju.
08:32
You have not changed the story.
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Niste promijenili priču.
08:35
And in this way,
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I na taj način,
08:37
time is actually the critical variable
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vrijeme jest zapravo kritična varijabla
08:40
that distinguishes a remembering self
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koja razlikuje pamteće jastvo
08:43
from an experiencing self;
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od iskustvenog.
08:45
time has very little impact on the story.
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Vrijeme ima jako malo utjecaja na ovu priču.
08:49
Now, the remembering self does more
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Pamteće jastvo čini više od pukog
08:52
than remember and tell stories.
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pamćenja i pripovjedanja priča.
08:54
It is actually the one that makes decisions
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Upravo ono donosi odluke
08:58
because, if you have a patient who has had, say,
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jer, ako imate pacijenta koji je imao, recimo
09:00
two colonoscopies with two different surgeons
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dvije kolonoskoije kod dva različita kirurga
09:03
and is deciding which of them to choose,
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i mora odabrati jednoga,
09:06
then the one that chooses
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tada će izabrati onoga
09:09
is the one that has the memory that is less bad,
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za kojega ima manje loše sjećanje
09:13
and that's the surgeon that will be chosen.
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i toga kiruga će odabrati.
09:15
The experiencing self
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Iskustveno jastvo
09:17
has no voice in this choice.
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nema pravo glasa pred ovim izborom.
09:20
We actually don't choose between experiences,
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Mi zapravo ne biramo među iskustvima.
09:23
we choose between memories of experiences.
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Mi biramo između sjećanja o iskustvima.
09:26
And even when we think about the future,
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Pa čak i kada mislimo o budućnosti,
09:29
we don't think of our future normally as experiences.
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mi obično ne razmišljamo o našoj budućnosti kao o iskustvu.
09:32
We think of our future
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O vlastitoj budućnosti razmišljamo
09:34
as anticipated memories.
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kao o očekivanim sjećanjima.
09:37
And basically you can look at this,
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Na to možete gledati,
09:39
you know, as a tyranny of the remembering self,
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kao na tiraniju pamtećeg jastva,
09:42
and you can think of the remembering self
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i misliti o pamtećem jastvu kako
09:44
sort of dragging the experiencing self
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na neki način povlači iskustveno jastvo
09:46
through experiences that
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kroz iskustva koja
09:48
the experiencing self doesn't need.
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iskustvenom jastvu nisu potrebna.
09:50
I have that sense that
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Imam taj osjećaj da
09:52
when we go on vacations
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kada idemo na odmor
09:54
this is very frequently the case;
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a to je vrlo često slučaj,
09:56
that is, we go on vacations,
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da idemo na odmor
09:58
to a very large extent,
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u velikom dijelu
10:00
in the service of our remembering self.
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u službi našeg pamtećeg jastva.
10:03
And this is a bit hard to justify I think.
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Vjerujem da je ovo teško opravdati.
10:06
I mean, how much do we consume our memories?
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Pitam se, koliko zapravo koristimo naša sjećanja?
10:09
That is one of the explanations
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To je jedno od objašnjenja
10:11
that is given for the dominance
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za dominaciju
10:13
of the remembering self.
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pamtećeg jastva.
10:15
And when I think about that, I think about a vacation
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I kada mislim o tome, mislim o odmoru
10:17
we had in Antarctica a few years ago,
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kojega sam proveo na Antartici prije nekoliko godina,
10:20
which was clearly the best vacation I've ever had,
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bio je to moj najbolji odmor ikada
10:23
and I think of it relatively often,
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i često o njemu mislim,
10:25
relative to how much I think of other vacations.
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u odnosu koliko mislim o ostalim odmorima.
10:27
And I probably have consumed
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I vjerojatno sam koristio
10:31
my memories of that three-week trip, I would say,
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svoja sjećanja o tom trotjednom putovanju, rekao bih,
10:33
for about 25 minutes in the last four years.
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otprilike 25 minuta tijekom posljednje četiri godine.
10:36
Now, if I had ever opened the folder
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Da sam kojim slučajem otvorio mapu
10:39
with the 600 pictures in it,
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sa 600 slika u njemu,
10:42
I would have spent another hour.
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potrošio bih sigurno još jedan sat.
10:44
Now, that is three weeks,
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Dakle to su tri tjedna,
10:46
and that is at most an hour and a half.
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na koja je utrošeno samo sat i pol.
10:48
There seems to be a discrepancy.
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Čini se da postoji određena nedosljednost.
10:50
Now, I may be a bit extreme, you know,
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Možda sam ja malo ekstreman,
10:52
in how little appetite I have for consuming memories,
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u tome koliko malo apetita imam za korištenje sjećanja,
10:55
but even if you do more of this,
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ali i kada biste ih češće koristili,
10:58
there is a genuine question:
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pojavljuje se opravdano pitanje.
11:01
Why do we put so much weight on memory
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Zašto pridajemo toliku važnost sjećanjima
11:05
relative to the weight that we put on experiences?
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u odnosu na važnost koju pridajemo iskustvu?
11:08
So I want you to think
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Želim da razmislite
11:10
about a thought experiment.
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o sljedećem misaonom eksperimentu.
11:13
Imagine that for your next vacation,
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Zamislite da za vaš slijedeći odmor
11:15
you know that at the end of the vacation
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znate kako će na kraju odmora
11:18
all your pictures will be destroyed,
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sve vaše slike biti uništene,
11:21
and you'll get an amnesic drug
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i da ćete dobiti amnezijski narkotik
11:23
so that you won't remember anything.
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pa se nećete ničega sjećati.
11:25
Now, would you choose the same vacation? (Laughter)
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Biste li odabrali taj odmor? (smijeh)
11:29
And if you would choose a different vacation,
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I kada biste izabrali drugačiji odmor,
11:34
there is a conflict between your two selves,
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javlja se sukob između vaših dvaju jastva
11:36
and you need to think about how to adjudicate that conflict,
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pa morate promisliti kako presuditi u tom sukobu,
11:39
and it's actually not at all obvious, because
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što nije uopće jednostavno,
11:42
if you think in terms of time,
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ako uzimate u obzir vrijeme,
11:45
then you get one answer,
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dobijete jedan odgovor.
11:48
and if you think in terms of memories,
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Ako pak uzimate u obzir sjećanja,
11:51
you might get another answer.
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mogli biste dobiti drugačiji odgovor.
11:53
Why do we pick the vacations we do
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Zašto odabiremo odmore koje odabiremo,
11:56
is a problem that confronts us
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jest problem koji nas suprotstavlja
11:59
with a choice between the two selves.
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s izborom između naših dvaju jastva.
12:01
Now, the two selves
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Dakle, ova dva jastva,
12:04
bring up two notions of happiness.
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povlače dva tumačenja pojma "sreća".
12:06
There are really two concepts of happiness
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Postoje dva koncepta sreće,
12:08
that we can apply, one per self.
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koja možemo primijeniti na po jedno jastvo.
12:11
So you can ask: How happy is the experiencing self?
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Kada pitate: Koliko je sretno iskustveno jastvo?
12:16
And then you would ask: How happy are the moments
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Tada pitate: Koliko su sretni trenuci
12:18
in the experiencing self's life?
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života iskustvenog jastva?
12:21
And they're all -- happiness for moments
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Svi su oni redom - sreća u trenucima
12:23
is a fairly complicated process.
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čineći ovo vrlo zamršenim procesom.
12:25
What are the emotions that can be measured?
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Koje su to emocije koje se mogu mjeriti?
12:28
And, by the way, now we are capable
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Usput, sada smo u mogućnosti
12:30
of getting a pretty good idea
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približno točno izmjeriti
12:32
of the happiness of the experiencing self over time.
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sreću iskustvenog jastva kroz vrijeme.
12:38
If you ask for the happiness of the remembering self,
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Ako ispitujete sreću pamtećeg jastva,
12:41
it's a completely different thing.
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to je sasvim druga stvar.
12:43
This is not about how happily a person lives.
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Tada nije važno koliko sretno osoba živi.
12:46
It is about how satisfied or pleased the person is
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Važno je koliko je osoba zadovoljna
12:49
when that person thinks about her life.
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kada razmišlja o vlastitom životu.
12:53
Very different notion.
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Poprilično različit koncept.
12:55
Anyone who doesn't distinguish those notions
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Tko god ne razlikuje te pojmove,
12:58
is going to mess up the study of happiness,
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pogriješiti će u istraživanju o sreći,
13:00
and I belong to a crowd of students of well-being,
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a ja pripadam družini studenata blagostanja,
13:03
who've been messing up the study of happiness for a long time
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koji su griješili u istraživanju sreće jako dugo
13:07
in precisely this way.
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upravo na taj način.
13:09
The distinction between the
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Ta razlika između
13:11
happiness of the experiencing self
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sreće iskustvenog jastva
13:13
and the satisfaction of the remembering self
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i zadovoljstva pamtećeg jastva
13:16
has been recognized in recent years,
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prepoznata je posljednjih godina
13:18
and there are now efforts to measure the two separately.
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i sada postoje napori za ispitivanje ovih dvoje odvojeno;
13:21
The Gallup Organization has a world poll
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Gallup organizacija ima anketu na svjetskoj razini
13:24
where more than half a million people
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s više od pola milijuna ljudi
13:26
have been asked questions
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kojima su postavljena pitanja
13:28
about what they think of their life
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o tome što misle o svom životu
13:30
and about their experiences,
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i svojim iskustvima.
13:32
and there have been other efforts along those lines.
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Bilo je još napora na tom pravcu.
13:35
So in recent years, we have begun to learn
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Posljednjih godina, počeli smo učiti
13:38
about the happiness of the two selves.
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o sreći dvaju jastva.
13:41
And the main lesson I think that we have learned
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Najvažnija lekcija koju smatram da smo naučili,
13:44
is they are really different.
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jest da su oni stvarno različiti.
13:46
You can know how satisfied somebody is with their life,
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Možete znati koliko je netko zadovoljan sa svojim životom,
13:51
and that really doesn't teach you much
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ali to vam zapravo ne govori mnogo
13:53
about how happily they're living their life,
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o tome koliko sretno netko živi svoj život,
13:56
and vice versa.
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i obrnuto.
13:58
Just to give you a sense of the correlation,
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Samo da vam pojasnim korelaciju,
14:00
the correlation is about .5.
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ona iznosi oko 0.5.
14:02
What that means is if you met somebody,
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A to znači da ako sretnete nekoga,
14:05
and you were told, "Oh his father is six feet tall,"
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i kažu vam, znaš njegov je tata 180 cm visok,
14:09
how much would you know about his height?
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koliko vam to govori o njegovoj visini?
14:11
Well, you would know something about his height,
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Pa, nešto biste mogli i pretpostaviti o njegovoj visini,
14:13
but there's a lot of uncertainty.
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ali ostaje prilično velika nesigurnost.
14:15
You have that much uncertainty.
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Toliko ste nesigurni.
14:17
If I tell you that somebody ranked their life eight on a scale of ten,
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Ako vam kažem da je netko rangirao svoj život 8 od 10,
14:21
you have a lot of uncertainty
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biti ćete nesigurni
14:23
about how happy they are
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o tome koliko je sretan
14:25
with their experiencing self.
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sa svojim iskustvenim jastvom.
14:27
So the correlation is low.
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Znači korelacija je mala.
14:29
We know something about what controls
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Znamo nešto o tome što kontrolira
14:32
satisfaction of the happiness self.
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zadovoljstvo sretnog jastva.
14:34
We know that money is very important,
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Znamo da je novac vrlo važan,
14:36
goals are very important.
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ciljevi su vrlo važni.
14:38
We know that happiness is mainly
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Znamo da se sreća uglavnom
14:42
being satisfied with people that we like,
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zadovoljava zajedno s ljudima koje volimo,
14:45
spending time with people that we like.
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provodeći vrijeme sa ljudima koje volimo.
14:48
There are other pleasures, but this is dominant.
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Postoje različiti načini zadovoljavanja, ali ovaj je dominantan.
14:50
So if you want to maximize the happiness of the two selves,
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Znači, ako biste htjeli maksimizirati sreću obaju jastva,
14:53
you are going to end up
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na kraju biste
14:55
doing very different things.
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radili dvije vrlo različite stvari.
14:57
The bottom line of what I've said here
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Suština onoga što sam rekao ovdje
14:59
is that we really should not think of happiness
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jest da ne bismo trebali razmišljati o sreći
15:03
as a substitute for well-being.
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kao zamjeni za blagostanje.
15:05
It is a completely different notion.
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To je sasvim drugačiji pojam.
15:08
Now, very quickly,
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Ukratko,
15:11
another reason we cannot think straight about happiness
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još jedan razlog zbog kojega ne možemo misliti jasno o sreći
15:15
is that we do not attend to the same things
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jest taj što ne obraćamo pažnju na iste stvari
15:22
when we think about life, and we actually live.
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kada mislimo o životu, i kada zapravo život živimo.
15:25
So, if you ask the simple question of how happy people are in California,
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I, ako postavite jednostavno pitanje, koliko sretno ljudi žive u Kaliforniji,
15:30
you are not going to get to the correct answer.
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nećete dobiti točan odgovor.
15:33
When you ask that question,
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Kada pitate to pitanje,
15:35
you think people must be happier in California
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mislite da ljudi moraju biti sretniji u Kaliforniji,
15:37
if, say, you live in Ohio.
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ako vi, recimo, živite u Ohiju.
15:39
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
15:41
And what happens is
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I ono što se događa jest
15:44
when you think about living in California,
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da kada mislite o životu u Kaliforniji
15:48
you are thinking of the contrast
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mislite zapravo na kontrast
15:50
between California and other places,
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između Kalifornije i ostalih mjesta
15:53
and that contrast, say, is in climate.
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i taj kontrast, recimo, postoji u klimatskim uvjetima.
15:55
Well, it turns out that climate
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Međutim, ispostavilo se kako klima
15:57
is not very important to the experiencing self
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i nije toliko bitna iskustvenom jastvu
16:00
and it's not even very important to the reflective self
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i nije čak jako bitna mislećem jastvu,
16:03
that decides how happy people are.
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koje odlučuje koliko su ljudi sretni.
16:06
But now, because the reflective self is in charge,
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Doduše, s obzirom da je misleće jastvo ono koje odlučuje,
16:10
you may end up -- some people may end up
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mogli biste se - neki ljudi bi se mogli
16:12
moving to California.
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preseliti u Kaliforniju.
16:14
And it's sort of interesting to trace what is going to happen
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Na neki način je zanimljivo pratiti što će se dogoditi
16:17
to people who move to California in the hope of getting happier.
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ljudima koji se presele u Kaliforniju u nadi da će biti sretniji.
16:20
Well, their experiencing self
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Naime, njihovo iskustveno jastvo
16:22
is not going to get happier.
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neće biti ništa sretnije.
16:24
We know that.
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I mi to znamo.
16:27
But one thing will happen: They will think they are happier,
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Ali jedna će se stvar dogoditi. Oni će misliti da su sretniji,
16:30
because, when they think about it,
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jer, kada o tome misle,
16:34
they'll be reminded of how horrible the weather was in Ohio,
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prisjetiti će se kako je ružno vrijeme bilo u Ohiju.
16:38
and they will feel they made the right decision.
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I osjećati će se da su ispravno postupili.
16:41
It is very difficult
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Vrlo je teško
16:43
to think straight about well-being,
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misliti jasno o blagostanju
16:45
and I hope I have given you a sense
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i nadam se da sam vam približio osjećaj
16:48
of how difficult it is.
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težine tog zadatka.
16:50
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
16:52
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
16:55
Chris Anderson: Thank you. I've got a question for you.
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Chris Anderson: Hvala vam. Imam pitanje za vas.
16:59
Thank you so much.
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Hvala vam puno.
17:01
Now, when we were on the phone a few weeks ago,
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Kada smo prošli tjedan razgovarali na telefonu,
17:05
you mentioned to me that there was quite an interesting result
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spomenuli ste da je jako zanimljiv rezultat
17:08
came out of that Gallup survey.
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proizašao iz Gallup ankete.
17:10
Is that something you can share
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Je li to nešto što biste mogli podijeliti
17:12
since you do have a few moments left now?
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s obzirom da imate još vremena?
17:14
Daniel Kahneman: Sure.
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Daniel Kahneman: Naravno.
17:16
I think the most interesting result that we found in the Gallup survey
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Smatram, kao je najzanimljiviji rezultat koji smo pronašli u Gallup anketi
17:19
is a number, which we absolutely did not expect to find.
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broj, za koji se nikako nismo nadali da ćemo otkriti.
17:22
We found that with respect to the happiness
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Otkrili smo to u odnosu na sreću
17:24
of the experiencing self.
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iskustvenog jastva.
17:27
When we looked at how feelings,
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Kada smo pogledali kako osjećaji
17:32
vary with income.
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mijenjaju s primanjima.
17:34
And it turns out that, below an income
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I ispostavilo se da, ispod određenog primanja
17:37
of 60,000 dollars a year, for Americans --
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od 60,000 dolara na godinu, za Amerikance,
17:40
and that's a very large sample of Americans, like 600,000,
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i to je vrlo veliki udio Amerikanaca, oko 600,000 njih,
17:43
so it's a large representative sample --
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dakle veliki reprezentativni uzorak,
17:45
below an income of 600,000 dollars a year...
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ispod primanja od 600,000 dolara godišnje...
17:47
CA: 60,000.
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CA: 60,000.
17:49
DK: 60,000.
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DK:60,000.
17:51
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
17:53
60,000 dollars a year, people are unhappy,
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60,000 dolara na godinu, ljudi su nesretni,
17:57
and they get progressively unhappier the poorer they get.
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i postaju progresivno nesretniji što su siromašniji.
18:00
Above that, we get an absolutely flat line.
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Iznad toga, imamo apsolutno ravnu liniju.
18:03
I mean I've rarely seen lines so flat.
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Stvarno, jako rijetko viđam tako ravne linije.
18:06
Clearly, what is happening is
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Jasno, što se događa jest
18:08
money does not buy you experiential happiness,
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da vam novac ne može kupiti iskustvenu sreću,
18:11
but lack of money certainly buys you misery,
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ali vam pomankanje novca sigurno može kupiti bijedu,
18:14
and we can measure that misery
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i mi tu bijedu možemo mjeriti
18:16
very, very clearly.
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vrlo, vrlo jasno.
18:18
In terms of the other self, the remembering self,
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U okvirima drugog jastva, pamtećeg jastva,
18:21
you get a different story.
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druga je priča.
18:23
The more money you earn, the more satisfied you are.
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Što više novaca zarađujete to ste zadovoljniji.
18:26
That does not hold for emotions.
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To se ne "drži vodu" kod emocija.
18:28
CA: But Danny, the whole American endeavor is about
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CA: Ali Danny, trud cijele Amerike je usmjeren ka
18:31
life, liberty, the pursuit of happiness.
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životu, slobodi, potrazi za srećom.
18:34
If people took seriously that finding,
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Ako bi ljudi ozbiljno shvatili to otkriće,
18:38
I mean, it seems to turn upside down
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mislim, izgleda malo naopako
18:41
everything we believe about, like for example,
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sve što vjerujemo, primjerice,
18:43
taxation policy and so forth.
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o poreznoj politici i tako dalje.
18:45
Is there any chance that politicians, that the country generally,
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Postoji li ikakva mogućnost da bi političari i zemlja općenito,
18:48
would take a finding like that seriously
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mogli uzeti to istraživanje za ozbiljno
18:51
and run public policy based on it?
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i voditi javnu politiku temeljenu na tome?
18:53
DK: You know I think that there is recognition
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DK: Znaš, mislim da postoji priznanje
18:55
of the role of happiness research in public policy.
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o ulozi istraživanja sreće u javnoj politici.
18:58
The recognition is going to be slow in the United States,
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Priznavanje će doći sporo u Sjedinjenim državama,
19:00
no question about that,
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bez ikakve sumnje,
19:02
but in the U.K., it is happening,
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ali u UK, već se događa,
19:04
and in other countries it is happening.
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a i u ostalim zemljama također.
19:06
People are recognizing that they ought
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Ljudi su prepoznali da bi trebali
19:09
to be thinking of happiness
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razmišljati o sreći
19:11
when they think of public policy.
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kada razmišljaju o javnoj politici.
19:13
It's going to take a while,
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Potrajati će,
19:15
and people are going to debate
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i ljudi će raspravljati
19:18
whether they want to study experience happiness,
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žele li proučavati iskustvenu sreću,
19:20
or whether they want to study life evaluation,
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ili žele proučavati ocijenjivanje života,
19:22
so we need to have that debate fairly soon.
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i stoga je potrebno ubrzo provesti takvu raspravu.
19:25
How to enhance happiness
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Kako povećati sreću,
19:27
goes very different ways depending on how you think,
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razlikovati će se o tome kako razmišljate,
19:30
and whether you think of the remembering self
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i je li mislite o pamtećem jastvu
19:32
or you think of the experiencing self.
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ili iskustvenom jastvu.
19:34
This is going to influence policy, I think, in years to come.
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To će utjecati na politiku, u godinama koje dolaze.
19:37
In the United States, efforts are being made
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U Sjedinjenim Američkim Državama, trud je uložen
19:40
to measure the experience happiness of the population.
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za mjerenje doživljaja sreće unutar stanovništva.
19:43
This is going to be, I think, within the next decade or two,
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Smatram da će to biti u slijedećem desetljeću ili dva
19:46
part of national statistics.
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dio nacionalne statistike.
19:48
CA: Well, it seems to me that this issue will -- or at least should be --
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CA: Dobro, čini mi se, ovaj će problem biti, ili bi barem trebao,
19:52
the most interesting policy discussion to track
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najzanimljivija politička rasprava za pratiti
19:54
over the next few years.
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u sljedećih nekoliko godina.
19:56
Thank you so much for inventing behavioral economics.
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Hvala vam puno što ste utemeljili bihevioralnu ekonomiju.
19:58
Thank you, Danny Kahneman.
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Hvala Vam, Danny Kahneman.
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Daniel Kahneman - Behavioral economics founderWidely regarded as the world's most influential living psychologist, Daniel Kahneman won the Nobel in Economics for his pioneering work in behavioral economics -- exploring the irrational ways we make decisions about risk.
Why you should listen
Daniel Kahneman is an eminence grise for the Freakonomics crowd. In the mid-1970s, with his collaborator Amos Tversky, he was among the first academics to pick apart exactly why we make "wrong" decisions. In their 1979 paper on prospect theory, Kahneman and Tversky examined a simple problem of economic risk. And rather than stating the optimal, rational answer, as an economist of the time might have, they quantified how most real people, consistently, make a less-rational choice. Their work treated economics not as a perfect or self-correcting machine, but as a system prey to quirks of human perception. The field of behavioral economics was born.
Kahneman was awarded the Nobel Memorial prize in 2002 for his work with Tversky, who died before the award was bestowed. In a lovely passage in his Nobel biography, Kahneman looks back on his deep collaboration with Tversky and calls for a new form of academic cooperation, marked not by turf battles but by "adversarial collaboration," a good-faith effort by unlike minds to conduct joint research, critiquing each other in the service of an ideal of truth to which both can contribute.
Daniel Kahneman | Speaker | TED.com