TEDGlobal 2011
Rory Stewart: Time to end the war in Afghanistan
羅瑞 史都華: 結束阿富汗戰爭的時間到了
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英國國會議員，羅瑞 史都華在911過後赴阿富汗，與人民和軍閥進行對話。十年過後的現在，他質問: 為什麼西方聯軍還在那裏打仗?他分享過去軍隊介入經驗的成功案例--例如: 波士尼亞--並告訴我們謙虛和對當地的了解才是成功的關鍵。
Rory Stewart - Politician
Rory Stewart -- a perpetual pedestrian, a diplomat, an adventurer and an author -- is the member of British Parliament for Penrith and the Border. Full bio
Rory Stewart -- a perpetual pedestrian, a diplomat, an adventurer and an author -- is the member of British Parliament for Penrith and the Border. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
The question today is not:
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今天的問題不是:
00:18
Why did we invade Afghanistan?
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我們為什麼侵略阿富汗?
00:20
The question is:
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而是
00:22
why are we still in Afghanistan
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我們為什麼還待在那裡?
00:25
one decade later?
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十年之後?
00:28
Why are we spending
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我們為什麼要花
00:30
$135 billion?
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135億美元
00:34
Why have we got 130,000 troops on the ground?
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我們為什麼要有13萬軍隊部屬在戰爭現場
00:38
Why were more people killed
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為什麼有更多人死去
00:40
last month
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上個月
00:42
than in any preceding month
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比之前任何一個月都多
00:44
of this conflict?
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因為這個戰爭?
00:46
How has this happened?
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為什麼會這樣?
00:48
The last 20 years
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最後20年
00:51
has been the age of intervention,
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是干預的年代
00:54
and Afghanistan is simply one act
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而阿富汗只是其中一個行動
00:57
in a five-act tragedy.
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在一個接連5個行動的悲劇
00:59
We came out of the end of the Cold War
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我們絕望地從冷戰末期
01:02
in despair.
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走出
01:04
We faced Rwanda;
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我們面對過盧安達(種族)大屠殺
01:06
we faced Bosnia,
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我們面對波士尼亞(瑟布雷尼卡)屠殺事件
01:08
and then we rediscovered our confidence.
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然後我們重拾信心
01:11
In the third act, we went into Bosnia and Kosovo
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在第三個行動中，我們進入波士尼亞和科索沃
01:14
and we seemed to succeed.
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最終我們似乎成功了
01:17
In the fourth act, with our hubris,
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在第四個行動中，我們以驕傲的心態，
01:19
our overconfidence developing,
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變得越來越過度自信
01:21
we invaded Iraq and Afghanistan,
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我們侵略了伊拉克和阿富汗
01:24
and in the fifth act,
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在第五個行動中
01:26
we plunged into a humiliating mess.
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我們慘陷令人不堪的泥诏
01:30
So the question is: What are we doing?
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所以，我們在幹嘛?
01:33
Why are we still stuck in Afghanistan?
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為什麼我們還陷在阿富汗?
01:36
And the answer, of course,
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當然這個答案
01:38
that we keep being given
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提供我們的一直是
01:40
is as follows:
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如下
01:42
we're told that we went into Afghanistan
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我們被告知去阿富汗
01:44
because of 9/11,
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是因為911恐怖攻擊
01:46
and that we remain there
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而我們之所以還待在這裡
01:48
because the Taliban poses an existential threat
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是因為塔利班的存在
01:50
to global security.
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對全球安全帶來了威脅
01:52
In the words of President Obama,
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歐巴馬總統多次談到
01:55
"If the Taliban take over again,
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如果塔利班捲土重來
01:57
they will invite back Al-Qaeda,
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他們將會迎回蓋達組織
01:59
who will try to kill as many of our people
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這組織將盡他們所能
02:02
as they possibly can."
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試著殺死我們的人民
02:05
The story that we're told
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我們被告知的說法
02:07
is that there was a "light footprint" initially --
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是我們最初只是輕輕地踏上那土地
02:09
in other words, that we ended up in a situation
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換句話說，我們的結局反而造成了
02:11
where we didn't have enough troops,
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我們並沒有足夠的軍力
02:13
we didn't have enough resources,
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我們沒有足夠的資源
02:15
that Afghans were frustrated --
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使阿富汗人民很沮喪
02:17
they felt there wasn't enough progress
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他們感覺不到足夠的進展
02:19
and economic development and security,
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經濟發展和安全
02:22
and therefore the Taliban came back --
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因此塔利班才會回來
02:24
that we responded in 2005 and 2006
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2005年和2006年之間
02:27
with troop deployments,
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我們部屬了軍隊
02:29
but we still didn't put enough troops on the ground.
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但數量依然不足夠
02:33
And that it wasn't until 2009,
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一直到2009年
02:36
when President Obama signed off on a surge,
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當歐巴馬總統在波濤洶湧的情勢下批准後
02:39
that we finally had,
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我們才終於有了
02:41
in the words of Secretary Clinton,
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套句美國國務卿希拉克林頓的話
02:43
"the strategy, the leadership and the resources."
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策略，領導精神和資源
02:46
So, as the president now reassures us,
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所以，當總統又再次向我們保證
02:49
we are on track to achieve our goals.
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我們正走在實現目標的正軌上時
02:54
All of this is wrong.
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這些都是錯的
02:57
Every one of those statements is wrong.
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那些陳素也都是錯的
03:01
Afghanistan does not
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阿富汗並不是
03:03
pose an existential threat
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對全球安全來說
03:05
to global security.
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並不是個威脅
03:07
It is extremely unlikely
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根本不可能
03:09
the Taliban would ever be able to take over the country --
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塔利班能夠再次接管這個國家
03:12
extremely unlikely they'd be able to seize Kabul.
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他們更不可能能夠佔領喀布爾
03:14
They simply don't have a conventional military option.
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她們就是沒有一個傳統的軍隊選擇
03:17
And even if they were able to do so, even if I'm wrong,
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即使她們能夠這樣做，即使我錯了
03:20
it's extremely unlikely
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依然不太可能
03:22
the Taliban would invite back Al-Qaeda.
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塔利班會迎回蓋達組織
03:24
From the Taliban's point of view,
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從塔利班的角度來看，
03:26
that was their number one mistake last time.
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上次是他們犯過最大的錯誤
03:29
If they hadn't invited back Al-Qaeda,
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如果他們沒有贏回蓋達組織
03:31
they would still be in power today.
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他們今天就應該還會掌權
03:34
And even if I'm wrong about those two things,
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即使我對這兩件事的看法都錯了
03:36
even if they were able to take back the country,
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即使她們可以奪回國家
03:38
even if they were to invite back Al-Qaeda,
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即使他們會迎回蓋達組織
03:41
it's extremely unlikely
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還是非常不可能
03:43
that Al-Qaeda would significantly enhance
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蓋達組織會顯著地強大
03:45
its ability to harm the United States
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傷害美國的能力
03:47
or harm Europe.
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或傷害英國
03:50
Because this isn't the 1990s anymore.
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因為現在已經不是1990年代了
03:52
If the Al-Qaeda base
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如果蓋達組織基地
03:54
was to be established near Ghazni,
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會蓋在加茲尼附近
03:56
we would hit them very hard,
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我們會猛烈攻擊他們
03:58
and it would be very, very difficult
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那將會非常困難
04:00
for the Taliban to protect them.
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要保護他們的話
04:02
Furthermore, it's simply not true
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那完全不是事實
04:05
that what went wrong in Afghanistan
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在阿富汗造成的錯誤
04:07
is the light footprint.
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只是輕微的影響
04:09
In my experience, in fact,
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事實上，就我經驗談
04:11
the light footprint was extremely helpful.
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這個輕微影響其實很有幫助
04:15
And these troops that we brought in --
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而那些我們帶進去的軍隊
04:18
it's a great picture of David Beckham
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這是一張貝克漢的照片
04:20
there on the sub-machine gun --
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拿著衝鋒槍
04:22
made the situation worse, not better.
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這使情況更糟，沒有更好
04:25
When I walked across Afghanistan
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當我行走阿富汗時
04:27
in the winter of 2001-2002,
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在2001和2002年間的冬天
04:30
what I saw was scenes like this.
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我看到的是像這樣的場景
04:32
A girl, if you're lucky,
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如果你夠幸運，一個女孩
04:34
in the corner of a dark room --
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在昏暗房間的角落裡
04:36
lucky to be able to look at the Koran.
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幸運地能夠看著可蘭經
04:39
But in those early days
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但是在早些日子那時
04:41
when we're told we didn't have enough troops and enough resources,
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我們被告知沒有足夠的軍隊和資源
04:43
we made a lot of progress in Afghanistan.
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我們其實在阿富汗有很大的進展
04:45
Within a few months,
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在幾個月內
04:47
there were two and a half million more girls in school.
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學校裡有超過250萬的女孩們就讀
04:50
In Sangin where I was sick in 2002,
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2002年時我在Sangin病倒了
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the nearest health clinic
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最近的衛生診所
04:55
was within three days walk.
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還要走三天的路
04:57
Today, there are 14 health clinics
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今天，有14個衛生珍所
05:00
in that area alone.
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單單在那個區域
05:02
There was amazing improvements.
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那時其實有驚人的改善
05:04
We went from almost no Afghans
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我們從幾乎沒有阿富汗人
05:06
having mobile telephones during the Taliban
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在塔利班時期擁有電話
05:08
to a situation where, almost overnight,
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進展到一個現象，幾乎一夜之間
05:10
three million Afghans had mobile telephones.
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三百萬阿富汗人擁有手機
05:14
And we had progress in the free media.
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我們在媒體自由上也有進展
05:16
We had progress in elections --
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我們在選舉上也有進展
05:18
all of this with the so-called light footprint.
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這些都是所謂的輕輕踏過
05:21
But when we began to bring more money,
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但是當我們開始帶來更多金錢
05:24
when we began to invest more resources,
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開始投資更多資源時
05:27
things got worse, not better. How?
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事情沒變好卻更糟。 怎麼這樣?
05:30
Well first see, if you put 125 billion dollars a year
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嗯 首先 如果你一年投入125億元
05:33
into a country like Afghanistan
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在像阿富汗這樣的國家上
05:35
where the entire revenue of the Afghan state
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整個國家財政收入
05:38
is one billion dollars a year,
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一年才一億元
05:40
you drown everything.
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那就是像石沉大海
05:43
It's not simply corruption and waste
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你造成的不只是
05:45
that you create;
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貪汙和浪費
05:47
you essentially replace the priorities of the Afghan government,
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你根本上替換了阿富汗政府的執政重點
05:50
the elected Afghan government,
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那個被選出來的政府
05:52
with the micromanaging tendencies
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而傾向由短期旅居的外國人
05:54
of foreigners on short tours
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隨著他們的喜好
05:57
with their own priorities.
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管東管西
05:59
And the same is true for the troops.
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對軍隊來說也是這樣
06:01
When I walked across Afghanistan,
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當我行走阿富汗時
06:03
I stayed with people like this.
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我借住在這樣的人家裡
06:05
This is Commandant Haji Malem Mohsin Khan of Kamenj.
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這位是指揮官 Haji Malem Mohsin Khan of Kamenj
06:08
Commandant Haji Malem Mohsin Khan of Kamenj was a great host.
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他是一位很讚的東家
06:11
He was very generous,
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非常大方
06:13
like many of the Afghans I stayed with.
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就像我借住過的很多阿富汗人一樣
06:15
But he was also considerably more conservative,
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但他相對來說也比較保守
06:18
considerably more anti-foreign,
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比較仇外
06:20
considerably more Islamist
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比較伊斯蘭基本教義派
06:22
than we'd like to acknowledge.
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比起我們認為的
06:25
This man, for example, Mullah Mustafa,
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譬如說 這個人Mullah Mustafa
06:27
tried to shoot me.
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想要射殺我
06:29
And the reason I'm looking a little bit perplexed in this photograph
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我之所以在照片裡看來有點迷茫
06:32
is I was somewhat frightened,
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是因為我有點被嚇到
06:34
and I was too afraid on this occasion
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而且我在這樣的場合下太害怕
06:36
to ask him, having run for an hour through the desert
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問他 在我在沙漠中跑了一小時後
06:38
and taken refuge in this house,
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終於在這屋裡可以避難後
06:40
why he had turned up and wanted to have his photograph taken with me.
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為什麼他突然要和我合照
06:44
But 18 months later, I asked him
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但18個月後，我問他
06:46
why he had tried to shoot me.
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為什麼他要射殺我
06:48
And Mullah Mustafa -- he's the man with the pen and paper --
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Mullah Mustafa 拿著筆和紙的那個人
06:50
explained that the man sitting immediately to the left as you look at the photograph,
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解釋坐在照片左邊的那個人
06:53
Nadir Shah
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Nadir Shah
06:55
had bet him that he couldn't hit me.
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和他打賭他不敢打我
06:58
Now this is not to say
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我的意思不是說
07:00
Afghanistan is a place full of people like Mullah Mustafa.
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在阿富汗都是像Nadir Shah這樣的人
07:03
It's not; it's a wonderful place
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不是 它是一個好地方
07:06
full of incredible energy and intelligence.
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充滿著難以置信的能量和智慧
07:09
But it is a place
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但是這個地方
07:11
where the putting-in of the troops
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部屬軍隊
07:13
has increased the violence rather than decreased it.
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只會增加暴力而不是減少
07:16
2005, Anthony Fitzherbert,
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2005年時 Anthony Fitzherbert
07:18
an agricultural engineer,
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一個農業工程師
07:20
could travel through Helmand,
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可以旅經爾曼德
07:22
could stay in Nad Ali, Sangin and Ghoresh,
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可以待在奈德阿里Sangin 和Ghoresh
07:24
which are now the names of villages where fighting is taking place.
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但現在那些村莊戰爭正在進行
07:27
Today, he could never do that.
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現在他再也不能這樣做了
07:30
So the idea that we deployed the troops
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所以我們想部屬軍隊
07:32
to respond to the Taliban insurgency
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來回應塔利班的暴亂
07:34
is mistaken.
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是錯的
07:36
Rather than preceding the insurgency,
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不但沒有早於暴亂發生之前
07:38
the Taliban followed the troop deployment,
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塔利班還接著軍隊部屬後而來
07:41
and as far as I'm concerned,
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就我所知
07:43
the troop deployment caused their return.
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軍對部屬導致他們重返
07:46
Now is this a new idea?
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難道這是個新的想法嗎?
07:48
No, there have been any number of people
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不，在過去七年裡
07:50
saying this over the last seven years.
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很多人一直提出這個想法
07:53
I ran a center at Harvard
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我在哈佛主持一個中心
07:55
from 2008 to 2010,
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從2008到2010年間
07:57
and there were people like Michael Semple there
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那裡有像Michael Semple
07:59
who speak Afghan languages fluently,
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會一口流利阿富汗語的人
08:01
who've traveled to almost every district in the country.
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幾乎去過整個國家的每一區
08:04
Andrew Wilder, for example,
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比如說Andrew Wilder
08:07
born on the Pakistan-Iranian border,
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他出生在巴基斯坦和伊朗的邊界
08:10
served his whole life
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把他的一生都奉獻
08:12
in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
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於巴基斯坦和阿富汗
08:14
Paul Fishstein who began working there in 1978 --
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像從1978年就在那裡工作的Paul Fishstein
08:16
worked for Save the Children,
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是為了拯救孩童
08:18
ran the Afghan research and evaluation unit.
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他主持阿富汗研究和評估單位
08:22
These are people
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這些人
08:24
who were able to say consistently
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可以肯定一貫地說
08:26
that the increase in development aid
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發展援助的增加
08:28
was making Afghanistan less secure, not more secure --
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讓阿富汗更不安全而不是更安全
08:31
that the counter-insurgency strategy
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而且反暴動策略
08:33
was not working and would not work.
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不但過去無效也不可能有效
08:36
And yet, nobody listened to them.
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但是卻沒人聽得進去
08:39
Instead,
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反之
08:41
there was a litany of astonishing optimism.
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卻有一連串驚人的樂觀主義出現
08:43
Beginning in 2004,
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從膽2004開始
08:46
every general came in saying,
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每個將軍都說
08:49
"I've inherited a dismal situation,
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我承接著了一個慘淡的局勢
08:51
but finally I have the right resources and the correct strategy,
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但終於有了對的資源和正確的策略
08:54
which will deliver,"
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將帶來
08:56
in General Barno's word in 2004,
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套一句Barno將軍在2004年的話
08:58
the "decisive year."
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決定性的一 年
09:00
Well guess what? It didn't.
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你猜怎麼著? 那並沒有發生。
09:02
But it wasn't sufficient to prevent General Abuzaid saying
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但這並足夠阻止General Abuzaid說
09:05
that he had the strategy and the resources
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他有策略和資源
09:07
to deliver, in 2005,
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在2005年帶來
09:09
the "decisive year."
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決定性的一年
09:11
Or General David Richards to come in 2006
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或在2006年 阻止General David Richards
09:14
and say he had the strategy and the resources
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說他有策略和資源
09:16
to deliver the "crunch year."
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帶來緊縮的一年
09:18
Or in 2007,
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或是2007時
09:20
the Norwegian deputy foreign minister, Espen Eide,
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挪威外交部長代表Espen Eide
09:23
to say that that would deliver the "decisive year."
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說的即將帶來決定性的一年
09:26
Or in 2008, Major General Champoux
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或是2008年時 少將 Champoux
09:28
to come in and say he would deliver the "decisive year."
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說他會帶來決定性的一年
09:31
Or in 2009, my great friend,
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或2009年 我的好朋友
09:33
General Stanley McChrystal,
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Stanley McChrystal將軍
09:35
who said that he was "knee-deep in the decisive year."
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他身處決定性的一年裡
09:38
Or in 2010,
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或2010年
09:40
the U.K. foreign secretary, David Miliband,
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英國外交部長David Miliband
09:43
who said that at last we would deliver the "decisive year."
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說我們終於將帶來決定性的一年
09:46
And you'll be delighted to hear in 2011, today,
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你會很開心聽到2011年的今天
09:49
that Guido Westerwelle, the German foreign minister,
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德國的外交部長 Guido Westerwelle
09:52
assures us that we are in the "decisive year."
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向我們保證今年是決定性的一年
09:57
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
10:03
How do we allow
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我們怎能容許
10:05
any of this to happen?
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這些發生
10:07
Well the answer, of course, is,
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答案當然是
10:09
if you spend 125 billion or 130 billion
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如果你每年花125億或130億美元
10:11
dollars a year in a country,
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在一個國家上
10:14
you co-opt almost everybody.
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你幾乎吸收了每個人
10:16
Even the aid agencies,
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甚至援助機構
10:18
who begin to receive an enormous amount of money
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他們開始收到一大筆錢
10:20
from the U.S. and the European governments
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來自美國和英國政府
10:22
to build schools and clinics,
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用來蓋學校和診所
10:24
are somewhat disinclined
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他們不太願意
10:26
to challenge the idea
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挑戰這個阿富汗是
10:28
that Afghanistan is an existential threat
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是對全球安全的一個存在威脅
10:30
to global security.
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的想法
10:32
They're worried, in other words,
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換句話說 他們擔心
10:34
that if anybody believes that it wasn't such a threat --
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如果有人相信其實阿富汗不具有如此威脅性
10:36
Oxfam, Save the Children
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樂施會，拯救孩童
10:38
wouldn't get the money
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就不能得到錢
10:40
to build their hospitals and schools.
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來建造醫院和學校
10:42
It's also very difficult to confront a general
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要對抗一個胸上有獎牌的上將
10:44
with medals on his chest.
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也是非常難的
10:46
It's very difficult for a politician,
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對一個政治人物來說非常困難
10:49
because you're afraid that many lives have been lost in vain.
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因為你害怕太多生命已經徒勞犧牲
10:52
You feel deep, deep guilt.
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你感到愧疚萬分
10:54
You exaggerate your fears,
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你誇大了恐懼
10:57
and you're terrified about the humiliation
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而且你被失敗的羞辱嚇死了
11:00
of defeat.
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嚇死了
11:02
What is the solution to this?
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這個解決方法是什麼呢?
11:04
Well the solution to this
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解決方法就是
11:06
is we need to find a way
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我們需要找到一個方法
11:08
that people like Michael Semple, or those other people,
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讓像Michael Semple的人或其它那些人
11:11
who are telling the truth, who know the country,
270
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那些說真話，了解這個國家
11:14
who've spent 30 years on the ground --
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那些花了30年在現場
11:16
and most importantly of all,
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最重要的是
11:18
the missing component of this --
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這件事情少了的部分
11:20
Afghans themselves,
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阿富汗人他們自己
11:22
who understand what is going on.
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他們才了解正在發生什麼
11:25
We need to somehow get their message
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我們必須想辦法讓他們的訊息
11:28
to the policymakers.
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傳給立法者知道
11:30
And this is very difficult to do
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因為我們的結構
11:32
because of our structures.
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這很難辦到
11:34
The first thing we need to change
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2000
首要改變的是
11:36
is the structures of our government.
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我們政府的結構
11:38
Very, very sadly,
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令人很難過的是
11:40
our foreign services, the United Nations,
283
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2000
我們的外國服務，聯合國
11:42
the military in these countries
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這些國家的軍隊
11:44
have very little idea of what's going on.
285
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2000
不甚了解發生了甚麼事
11:46
The average British soldier is on a tour of only six months;
286
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3000
英國軍人平均巡迴阿富汗六個月
11:49
Italian soldiers, on tours of four months;
287
694000
3000
義大利軍人四個月
11:52
the American military, on tours of 12 months.
288
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3000
美國軍人12個月
11:55
Diplomats are locked in embassy compounds.
289
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3000
外交官被關在大使館圍牆裡
11:58
When they go out, they travel in these curious armored vehicles
290
703000
3000
就算他們出去，也是躲在奇怪的裝甲車裡
12:01
with these somewhat threatening security teams
291
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3000
帶著這些有些嚇人的安防隊伍
12:04
who ready 24 hours in advance
292
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2000
每天24小時前就準備好
12:06
who say you can only stay on the ground for an hour.
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說你只能現場待一小時
12:08
In the British embassy in Afghanistan
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阿富汗的英國大使館裡
12:10
in 2008,
295
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2000
2008年時
12:12
an embassy of 350 people,
296
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2000
在350個人的大使管理
12:14
there were only three people who could speak Dari,
297
719000
3000
只有3個人可以說像樣程度的Dari語
12:17
the main language of Afghanistan, at a decent level.
298
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3000
阿富汗的主要語言
12:20
And there was not a single Pashto speaker.
299
725000
3000
沒有一個說Pashto語的人
12:23
In the Afghan section in London
300
728000
3000
在倫敦的阿富汗區
12:26
responsible for governing Afghan policy on the ground,
301
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3000
負責治理阿富汗現場的政策
12:29
I was told last year
302
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2000
去年我被告知
12:31
that there was not a single staff member
303
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2000
在那一個外交辦公室的組別裡
12:33
of the foreign office in that section
304
738000
3000
沒有任何一個組員
12:36
who had ever served
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2000
曾經用阿富汗語
12:38
on a posting in Afghanistan.
306
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2000
張貼過任何消息
12:40
So we need to change that institutional culture.
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2000
所以我們必須改變那個體制文化
12:42
And I could make the same points about the United States
308
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3000
對美國和聯合國來說
12:45
and the United Nations.
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2000
我講得也是有道理的
12:47
Secondly, we need to aim off of the optimism of the generals.
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第二，我們必須把目標從那些上將的樂觀主義上轉移
12:50
We need to make sure that we're a little bit suspicious,
311
755000
3000
我們必須確定我們有些多疑
12:53
that we understand that optimism
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2000
我們知道樂觀
12:55
is in the DNA of the military,
313
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是軍人基因中與生俱來的
12:57
that we don't respond to it
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我們不能太敏捷
12:59
with quite as much alacrity.
315
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2000
地回應它
13:01
And thirdly, we need to have some humility.
316
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3000
第三，我們必須謙虛一點
13:04
We need to begin from the position
317
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2000
我們必須從了解到
13:06
that our knowledge, our power,
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我們的知識，力量
13:08
our legitimacy
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2000
和合法性
13:10
is limited.
320
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2000
是有限的定位出發
13:12
This doesn't mean
321
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2000
這並不是指
13:14
that intervention around the world is a disaster.
322
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2000
干預國際事務是個災難
13:16
It isn't.
323
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2000
不是
13:18
Bosnia and Kosovo
324
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2000
波士尼亞和科索沃
13:20
were signal successes,
325
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2000
是成功的信號
13:22
great successes.
326
787000
3000
偉大的成功
13:25
Today when you go to Bosnia
327
790000
2000
如果你現在去波士尼亞
13:27
it is almost impossible to believe
328
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2000
你幾乎不會相信
13:29
that what we saw in the early 1990s happened.
329
794000
4000
我們在1990年代看到
13:33
It's almost impossible to believe the progress we've made
330
798000
3000
以及自從1994年來我們促進的發展
13:36
since 1994.
331
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3000
發生過
13:39
Refugee return,
332
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2000
難民回來了
13:41
which the United Nations High Commission for Refugees
333
806000
2000
這是聯合國難民屬
13:43
thought would be extremely unlikely,
334
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2000
覺得極不可能發生的
13:45
has largely happened.
335
810000
2000
竟然大大的發生了
13:47
A million properties have been returned.
336
812000
2000
一百萬個檔案資料已經被送回
13:49
Borders between the Bosniak territory
337
814000
2000
在波士尼亞領土附近的邊界
13:51
and the Bosnian-Serb territory have calmed down.
338
816000
3000
以及波士尼亞和賽爾維亞邊界的情勢已經安定下來
13:54
The national army has shrunk.
339
819000
3000
播士尼亞國軍已經縮減
13:57
The crime rates in Bosnia today
340
822000
2000
現在波士尼亞的犯罪率
13:59
are lower than they are in Sweden.
341
824000
3000
比瑞典還低
14:03
This has been done
342
828000
2000
這全靠
14:05
by an incredible, principled effort
343
830000
3000
驚人 有紀律的努力
14:08
by the international community,
344
833000
2000
以及國際社會
14:10
and, of course, above all,
345
835000
2000
當然最重要的是
14:12
by Bosnians themselves.
346
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2000
波士尼亞人們自己才能辦到
14:14
But you need to look at context.
347
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2000
但是必須要知道事情前後脈絡
14:16
And this is what we've lost in Afghanistan and Iraq.
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這是我們在阿富汗和伊拉克所喪失的
14:19
You need to understand that in those places
349
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你必須知道在那些地方
14:21
what really mattered
350
846000
2000
真正重要的
14:23
was, firstly, the role of Tudman and Milosevic
351
848000
2000
首先是圖季曼和米洛舍維奇的角色
14:25
in coming to the agreement,
352
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2000
能夠達成協議
14:27
and then the fact those men went,
353
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3000
以及那些人真的去了
14:30
that the regional situation improved,
354
855000
2000
區域的情勢改善了
14:32
that the European Union could offer Bosnia
355
857000
3000
歐盟也提供波士尼亞
14:35
something extraordinary:
356
860000
2000
很棒的東西
14:37
the chance to be part
357
862000
2000
那個可以成為
14:39
of a new thing, a new club,
358
864000
2000
一個新東西，一個新社團
14:41
a chance to join something bigger.
359
866000
3000
可以加入一個更大的團體的機會
14:44
And finally, we need to understand that in Bosnia and Kosovo,
360
869000
3000
最後，我們必須了解在波士尼亞和科索沃
14:47
a lot of the secret of what we did,
361
872000
2000
我們所做得絕大秘密
14:49
a lot of the secret of our success,
362
874000
2000
我們成功的絕大秘密
14:51
was our humility --
363
876000
2000
都功歸於我們的謙虛
14:53
was the tentative nature of our engagement.
364
878000
3000
和我們試驗性的參與天性
14:56
We criticized people a lot in Bosnia
365
881000
2000
我們在波士尼亞批評了很多人
14:58
for being quite slow to take on war criminals.
366
883000
2000
太慢與戰爭罪人對抗
15:00
We criticized them
367
885000
2000
批評他們
15:02
for being quite slow to return refugees.
368
887000
2000
太慢送回難民
15:04
But that slowness, that caution,
369
889000
2000
但是那個慢速度，那個慎重
15:06
the fact that President Clinton initially said
370
891000
3000
柯林頓總統最初說的事實
15:09
that American troops would only be deployed for a year,
371
894000
2000
美國軍隊只會部屬一年
15:11
turned out to be a strength,
372
896000
2000
結果變成我們的強處
15:13
and it helped us to put our priorities right.
373
898000
3000
幫助我們放對重點
15:16
One of the saddest things
374
901000
2000
在我們涉入阿富汗事件中
15:18
about our involvement in Afghanistan
375
903000
2000
最可悲的事情
15:20
is that we've got our priorities out of sync.
376
905000
2000
就是我們的重點沒做到同步
15:22
We're not matching our resources to our priorities.
377
907000
3000
我們並沒有把資源運用在我們的重點上
15:25
Because if what we're interested in is terrorism,
378
910000
3000
因為如果我們關心恐怖主義
15:28
Pakistan is far more important than Afghanistan.
379
913000
3000
巴基斯坦比阿富汗重要得多了
15:31
If what we're interested in is regional stability,
380
916000
2000
如果我們關心的是區域性的穩定
15:33
Egypt is far more important.
381
918000
2000
埃及重要得多了
15:35
If what we're worried about is poverty and development,
382
920000
3000
如果我們擔心的是貧窮和發展
15:38
sub-Saharan Africa is far more important.
383
923000
3000
次撒哈拉非洲地區重要得多了
15:41
This doesn't mean that Afghanistan doesn't matter,
384
926000
3000
這並不是說阿富汗不重要
15:44
but that it's one of 40 countries in the world
385
929000
2000
但只是世界上40個國家中
15:46
with which we need to engage.
386
931000
2000
我們需要參與其中的其中之一
15:48
So if I can finish with a metaphor for intervention,
387
933000
4000
所以如果用一個比喻來說干預這件事
15:52
what we need to think of
388
937000
3000
我們需要想到的是
15:55
is something like mountain rescue.
389
940000
3000
像山區救援這樣的事情
15:58
Why mountain rescue?
390
943000
2000
為什麼呢
16:00
Because when people talk about intervention,
391
945000
3000
因為當人們談到干預
16:03
they imagine that some scientific theory --
392
948000
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他們認為某些蘭德公司
16:05
the Rand Corporation goes around
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做的科學理論
16:07
counting 43 previous insurgencies
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把之前43起叛亂
16:10
producing mathematical formula
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算出一個公式
16:12
saying you need one trained counter-insurgent
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告訴你你需要一個訓練好的反叛亂行動
16:14
for every 20 members of the population.
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給人口中每20個人一個
16:17
This is the wrong way of looking at it.
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這是錯誤的看法
16:19
You need to look at it in the way that you look at mountain rescue.
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你需要像看山區救援那樣看待它
16:22
When you're doing mountain rescue,
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當你進行山區救援時
16:24
you don't take a doctorate in mountain rescue,
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你不需要博士學位才行
16:27
you look for somebody who knows the terrain.
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你要找一個瞭解地勢的人
16:30
It's about context.
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這和背景有關
16:32
You understand that you can prepare,
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你知道可以準備
16:34
but the amount of preparation you can do
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但你能做的準備
16:36
is limited --
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有限
16:38
you can take some water, you can have a map,
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你可以帶些水，帶個地圖
16:40
you can have a pack.
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你可以準備一個包包
16:42
But what really matters
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但真的重要的是
16:44
is two kinds of problems --
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兩種問題
16:46
problems that occur on the mountain
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山裡會發生的問題
16:48
which you couldn't anticipate,
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而你預料不到
16:50
such as, for example, ice on a slope,
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例如像是坡上的冰
16:53
but which you can get around,
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但你還可以逃開
16:55
and problems which you couldn't anticipate
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以及預料不到
16:58
and which you can't get around,
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又逃不開的問題
17:00
like a sudden blizzard or an avalanche
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像突然的暴風雪和雪崩
17:02
or a change in the weather.
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或是天氣驟變
17:04
And the key to this
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對此的解決之道
17:06
is a guide who has been on that mountain,
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就是一個曾經在山上
17:09
in every temperature,
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待過各種氣候
17:11
at every period --
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任何時間的嚮導
17:13
a guide who, above all,
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最重要的是， 一個
17:15
knows when to turn back,
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知道什麼時候該回頭
17:17
who doesn't press on relentlessly
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當情勢轉劣時不會堅持前進
17:19
when conditions turn against them.
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的嚮導
17:21
What we look for
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我們從
17:23
in firemen, in climbers, in policemen,
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消防員，登山員和警察
17:26
and what we should look for in intervention,
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以及應該從干預中找的
17:28
is intelligent risk takers --
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是聰明的冒險者
17:30
not people who plunge blind off a cliff,
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不是盲目跳下懸崖的人
17:33
not people who jump into a burning room,
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不是跳進火坑的人
17:36
but who weigh their risks,
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而是會衡量風險
17:38
weigh their responsibilities.
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衡量她們的責任
17:40
Because the worst thing we have done in Afghanistan
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因為我們在阿富汗做過最糟的事
17:43
is this idea
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就是抱著
17:45
that failure is not an option.
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沒有失敗的選擇的想法
17:48
It makes failure invisible,
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這使失敗隱形了
17:51
inconceivable and inevitable.
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無法想像且無可避免
17:54
And if we can resist
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如果我們能抵抗
17:56
this crazy slogan,
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這個瘋狂口號
17:58
we shall discover --
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我們會發現
18:00
in Egypt, in Syria, in Libya,
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在埃及 敘利亞 利比亞
18:02
and anywhere else we go in the world --
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以及世界上任何其他國家
18:05
that if we can often do much less than we pretend,
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如果我們能卸去偽裝
18:08
we can do much more than we fear.
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我們就能無畏地做得更多
18:12
Thank you very much.
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非常感謝你們
18:14
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
18:16
Thank you. Thank you very much.
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謝謝。謝謝你們。
18:19
Thank you. Thank you very much.
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謝謝，謝謝你們。
18:22
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
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謝謝你們謝謝你們謝謝你們
18:26
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
18:34
Thank you.
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2000
謝謝你們
18:36
Thank you. Thank you.
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謝謝你們謝謝你們
18:38
Thank you.
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2000
謝謝你們
18:40
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
18:42
Bruno Giussani: Rory, you mentioned Libya at the end.
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Bruno Giussani: Rory你最後提到利比亞
18:45
Just briefly, what's your take on the current events there
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簡短說一下，你對現今在那裏發生的事情的想法
18:48
and the intervention?
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還有那邊的干預
18:50
Rory Stewart: Okay, I think Libya poses the classic problem.
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好 我認為利比亞構成一個經典的問題
18:53
The problem in Libya
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利比亞的問題
18:55
is that we are always pushing for the black or white.
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是我們總是在推動黑人或白人
18:57
We imagine there are only two choices:
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我們以為只有兩個選擇
18:59
either full engagement and troop deployment
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不是全心投入部屬軍隊
19:02
or total isolation.
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就是完全與之隔離
19:04
And we are always being tempted up to our neck.
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我們總是對誘惑動心萬分
19:07
We put our toes in and we go up to our neck.
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我們踏進泥诏然後滿身泥濘出來
19:09
What we should have done in Libya
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我們在利比亞應該做的是
19:11
is we should have stuck to the U.N. resolution.
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我們應該謹守聯合國的決議
19:13
We should have limited ourselves very, very strictly
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我們應該嚴格限制自己
19:16
to the protection of the civilian population in Benghazi.
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只要保護班加西的平民
19:19
We could have done that.
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我們應該早就做得到
19:21
We set up a no-fly zone within 48 hours
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我們設立一個48小時內無飛機的區域
19:24
because Gaddafi had no planes
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因為格達費48小時內
19:26
within 48 hours.
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沒有飛機
19:28
Instead of which, we've allowed ourselves to be tempted
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反之，我們允許自己被誘惑
19:31
towards regime change.
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想改變政權
19:33
In doing so, we've destroyed our credibility with the Security Council,
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因為這樣，我們已經摧毀安全理事會對我們的信任
19:37
which means it's very difficult
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這使得
19:39
to get a resolution on Syria,
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對敘利亞的決議非常困難
19:41
and we're setting ourselves up again for failure.
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而且我們又再次邁向自己設好的失敗
19:44
Once more, humility,
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我再重申一次 謙虛
19:46
limits, honesty,
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限制 誠實
19:48
realistic expectations
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實際的期望
19:50
and we could have achieved something to be proud of.
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那我們就能做到值得驕傲的事情
19:52
BG: Rory, thank you very much.
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Rory非常謝謝你
19:54
RS: Thank you. (BG: Thank you.)
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謝謝 謝謝
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Rory Stewart - PoliticianRory Stewart -- a perpetual pedestrian, a diplomat, an adventurer and an author -- is the member of British Parliament for Penrith and the Border.
Why you should listen
Now the member of British Parliament for Penrith and the Border, in rural northwest England, Rory Stewart has led a fascinatingly broad life of public service. He joined the Foreign Office after school, then left to begin a years-long series of walks across the Muslim world. In 2002, his extraordinary walk across post-9/11 Afghanistan resulted in his first book, The Places in Between. After the invasion of Iraq in 2003, he served as a Deputy Governorate Co-Ordinator in Southern Iraq for the coalition forces, and later founded a charity in Kabul.
To secure his Conservative seat in Parliament, he went on a walking tour of Penrith, covering the entire county as he talked to voters. In 2008, Esquire called him one of the 75 most influential people of the 21st century.
He says: "The world isn't one way or another. Things can be changed very, very rapidly by someone with sufficient confidence, sufficient knowledge and sufficient authority."
Rory Stewart | Speaker | TED.com