TEDGlobal 2011
Rory Stewart: Time to end the war in Afghanistan
罗伊.斯图尔特: 阿富汗战争该结束了
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9/11后，现英国国会议员罗伊.斯图尔特徒步穿越了阿富汗，广会当地居民和军阀。十年后的今天，他问道：为什么西方的联军还在阿富汗参战？他在演讲中回顾了近代军事干预有益的经验 —— 例如波斯尼亚 —— 告诫唯有谦逊态度和因地制宜才是成功的关键。
Rory Stewart - Politician
Rory Stewart -- a perpetual pedestrian, a diplomat, an adventurer and an author -- is the member of British Parliament for Penrith and the Border. Full bio
Rory Stewart -- a perpetual pedestrian, a diplomat, an adventurer and an author -- is the member of British Parliament for Penrith and the Border. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
The question today is not:
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今天的问题不是：
00:18
Why did we invade Afghanistan?
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我们为什么进军阿富汗？
00:20
The question is:
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问题是：
00:22
why are we still in Afghanistan
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我们为什么在十年后的今天
00:25
one decade later?
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还在阿富汗？
00:28
Why are we spending
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为什么我们花费
00:30
$135 billion?
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1350亿美元？
00:34
Why have we got 130,000 troops on the ground?
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为什么我们在那里还有13万驻军？
00:38
Why were more people killed
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为什么被杀害的人数，在上个月
00:40
last month
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要多出
00:42
than in any preceding month
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自从战争开始后的
00:44
of this conflict?
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前面任何一个月
00:46
How has this happened?
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这是怎么搞的？
00:48
The last 20 years
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过去的20年
00:51
has been the age of intervention,
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是军事干预的时代，
00:54
and Afghanistan is simply one act
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阿富汗只是这个五章悲剧中的
00:57
in a five-act tragedy.
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一个章节。
00:59
We came out of the end of the Cold War
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我们走出冷战后处于一种
01:02
in despair.
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绝望境地。
01:04
We faced Rwanda;
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我们面对卢旺达；
01:06
we faced Bosnia,
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我们面对波斯尼亚；
01:08
and then we rediscovered our confidence.
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之后我们重新找回了自信。
01:11
In the third act, we went into Bosnia and Kosovo
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在第三章中，我们进入了波斯尼亚和科索沃
01:14
and we seemed to succeed.
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并且看起来成功了。
01:17
In the fourth act, with our hubris,
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在第四章中，傲慢，
01:19
our overconfidence developing,
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助长了过度自信。
01:21
we invaded Iraq and Afghanistan,
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我们入侵了伊拉克和阿富汗。
01:24
and in the fifth act,
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在第五章中，
01:26
we plunged into a humiliating mess.
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我们跌入了让人羞耻的混乱。
01:30
So the question is: What are we doing?
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所以，问题是：我们在干什么？
01:33
Why are we still stuck in Afghanistan?
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为什么我们还困在阿富汗？
01:36
And the answer, of course,
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答案，当然，
01:38
that we keep being given
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我们被一再告知的
01:40
is as follows:
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答案如下。
01:42
we're told that we went into Afghanistan
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我们被告知我们进入阿富汗
01:44
because of 9/11,
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是因为9／11
01:46
and that we remain there
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至于我们仍驻军在那里
01:48
because the Taliban poses an existential threat
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是因为塔利班的存在对世界安全
01:50
to global security.
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构成极大威胁。
01:52
In the words of President Obama,
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用奥巴马总统的话，
01:55
"If the Taliban take over again,
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“若塔利班再一次掌握控制，
01:57
they will invite back Al-Qaeda,
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基地组织将被招回，
01:59
who will try to kill as many of our people
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然后他们将试图杀害
02:02
as they possibly can."
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尽可能多的人们。”
02:05
The story that we're told
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我们被告知的故事如下，
02:07
is that there was a "light footprint" initially --
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在一开始留下的足迹太轻了 ——
02:09
in other words, that we ended up in a situation
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换句话说，当时的情况
02:11
where we didn't have enough troops,
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没有足够的驻军，
02:13
we didn't have enough resources,
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没有足够的资源，
02:15
that Afghans were frustrated --
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我们让阿富汗人失望了。
02:17
they felt there wasn't enough progress
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他们觉得经济发展和安保方面
02:19
and economic development and security,
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均进展缓慢，
02:22
and therefore the Taliban came back --
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所以塔利班回来了。
02:24
that we responded in 2005 and 2006
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于是我们于2005和2006年的回应是
02:27
with troop deployments,
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部署步队，
02:29
but we still didn't put enough troops on the ground.
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但我们在地面上的部队仍旧不够。
02:33
And that it wasn't until 2009,
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之后直到2009年，
02:36
when President Obama signed off on a surge,
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奥巴马总统同意并签署了增兵的建议，
02:39
that we finally had,
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我们终于有了，
02:41
in the words of Secretary Clinton,
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用(美)国务卿希拉里的话说，
02:43
"the strategy, the leadership and the resources."
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“正确的战略，合适的领袖，充足资源”
02:46
So, as the president now reassures us,
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于是，有了总统先生的承诺，
02:49
we are on track to achieve our goals.
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我们驶向我们的目标。
02:54
All of this is wrong.
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所有这些都错了。
02:57
Every one of those statements is wrong.
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故事中的每一句话都错了。
03:01
Afghanistan does not
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阿富汗并没有
03:03
pose an existential threat
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对全球安全构成
03:05
to global security.
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存在主义的威胁。
03:07
It is extremely unlikely
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而塔利班
03:09
the Taliban would ever be able to take over the country --
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主掌权力的可能性是微乎其微的 ——
03:12
extremely unlikely they'd be able to seize Kabul.
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他们没有能力，也没有可能掌控喀布尔（Kabul）。
03:14
They simply don't have a conventional military option.
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说白了，他们没有能掌权的军队，
03:17
And even if they were able to do so, even if I'm wrong,
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退一步说，即使我错了，即使他们有能力掌权，
03:20
it's extremely unlikely
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塔利班也绝不可能
03:22
the Taliban would invite back Al-Qaeda.
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请回“基地”组织。
03:24
From the Taliban's point of view,
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因为在塔利班看来，
03:26
that was their number one mistake last time.
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这正是他们上次犯下的最大错误。
03:29
If they hadn't invited back Al-Qaeda,
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若他们上次没有请回“基地”组织，
03:31
they would still be in power today.
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他们现在应该还在当权。
03:34
And even if I'm wrong about those two things,
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再退一步说，即使上面两点我都错说了，
03:36
even if they were able to take back the country,
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即使塔利班能再一次当权，
03:38
even if they were to invite back Al-Qaeda,
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即使他们请回“基地”组织，
03:41
it's extremely unlikely
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“基地”组织也没有可能
03:43
that Al-Qaeda would significantly enhance
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东山再起
03:45
its ability to harm the United States
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危害美国
03:47
or harm Europe.
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或是欧洲。
03:50
Because this isn't the 1990s anymore.
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因为现在已经不是 90 年代了。
03:52
If the Al-Qaeda base
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如果“基地”组织的大本营
03:54
was to be established near Ghazni,
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设在加兹尼（Ghazni）
03:56
we would hit them very hard,
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我们有能力给予他们极大的打击，
03:58
and it would be very, very difficult
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塔利班将很难
04:00
for the Taliban to protect them.
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庇护他们。
04:02
Furthermore, it's simply not true
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再提一点有悖事实之处，
04:05
that what went wrong in Afghanistan
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那就是说到阿富汗的困境
04:07
is the light footprint.
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并将此归罪于“过轻的足迹”。
04:09
In my experience, in fact,
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在我经验看来，事实上，
04:11
the light footprint was extremely helpful.
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留下“轻轻的足迹”是非常有帮助的。
04:15
And these troops that we brought in --
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而我们带入的这些军队——
04:18
it's a great picture of David Beckham
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一张贝克汉姆的靓照
04:20
there on the sub-machine gun --
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和这些冲锋枪——
04:22
made the situation worse, not better.
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使得情况恶化，而非缓解。
04:25
When I walked across Afghanistan
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2001到2002年的冬天
04:27
in the winter of 2001-2002,
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我徒步穿越阿富汗，
04:30
what I saw was scenes like this.
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我看到的是这样一副景象。
04:32
A girl, if you're lucky,
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一个女孩，如果她幸运的话，
04:34
in the corner of a dark room --
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坐在阴暗房间的角落——
04:36
lucky to be able to look at the Koran.
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幸运地能看到古兰经。
04:39
But in those early days
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但就在这早几年
04:41
when we're told we didn't have enough troops and enough resources,
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我们被告知我们没有足够的军队和资源时，
04:43
we made a lot of progress in Afghanistan.
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我们在阿富汗工作的进展是可人的。
04:45
Within a few months,
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仅用几个月的时间，
04:47
there were two and a half million more girls in school.
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250万女童走进了学校。
04:50
In Sangin where I was sick in 2002,
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我2002年时生病在 Sangin，
04:53
the nearest health clinic
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离我最近的诊所
04:55
was within three days walk.
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要走三天才到。
04:57
Today, there are 14 health clinics
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今天，仅在那一个地区
05:00
in that area alone.
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就有14个诊所。
05:02
There was amazing improvements.
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进展是可观的。
05:04
We went from almost no Afghans
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阿富汗人从塔利班时代的
05:06
having mobile telephones during the Taliban
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几乎没有人拥有移动电话
05:08
to a situation where, almost overnight,
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到突然一夜间，
05:10
three million Afghans had mobile telephones.
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300万阿富汗人拥有手机。
05:14
And we had progress in the free media.
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我们在媒体自由反面也有进展。
05:16
We had progress in elections --
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还有竞选的进展——
05:18
all of this with the so-called light footprint.
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所有的这些成就于所谓“轻轻的足迹”。
05:21
But when we began to bring more money,
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但是当我们开始投入资金，
05:24
when we began to invest more resources,
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当我们注入了资源，
05:27
things got worse, not better. How?
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情况开始变糟糕了，而非转好。怎么回事？
05:30
Well first see, if you put 125 billion dollars a year
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首先你看，如果你每年给阿富汗这样的国家
05:33
into a country like Afghanistan
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注入 1250 亿
05:35
where the entire revenue of the Afghan state
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阿富汗这个国家全年的收入是
05:38
is one billion dollars a year,
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10亿每年，
05:40
you drown everything.
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你把所有都淹没了。
05:43
It's not simply corruption and waste
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这造成的不单单是腐败
05:45
that you create;
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和浪费
05:47
you essentially replace the priorities of the Afghan government,
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你在根本上混淆了阿富汗政府的主要任务，
05:50
the elected Afghan government,
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被选举出的阿富汗政府，
05:52
with the micromanaging tendencies
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面对的是这些有微观管理倾向的
05:54
of foreigners on short tours
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只在这里做短期停留的
05:57
with their own priorities.
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有自己目的的外国人。
05:59
And the same is true for the troops.
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同理适用于军队。
06:01
When I walked across Afghanistan,
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我穿越阿富汗时，
06:03
I stayed with people like this.
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我借住在这样的一些人那里。
06:05
This is Commandant Haji Malem Mohsin Khan of Kamenj.
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这是指挥官（名）Haji Malem Mohsin Khan of Kamenj。
06:08
Commandant Haji Malem Mohsin Khan of Kamenj was a great host.
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指挥官（名）Haji Malem Mohsin Khan of Kamenj是很好的主人。
06:11
He was very generous,
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他很慷慨
06:13
like many of the Afghans I stayed with.
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就像许多我呆过的阿富汗人家一样。
06:15
But he was also considerably more conservative,
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但他相比下要保守的多，
06:18
considerably more anti-foreign,
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更加排斥外国人，
06:20
considerably more Islamist
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更加伊斯兰主义
06:22
than we'd like to acknowledge.
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我们有时不愿承认这点。
06:25
This man, for example, Mullah Mustafa,
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例如这位，Mullah Mustafa，
06:27
tried to shoot me.
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曾试图射杀我。
06:29
And the reason I'm looking a little bit perplexed in this photograph
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我在这张相片中看起来有些困惑的原因
06:32
is I was somewhat frightened,
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是因为我有点儿吓着了，
06:34
and I was too afraid on this occasion
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而且那天我刚在沙漠里
06:36
to ask him, having run for an hour through the desert
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跑了一个小时，到这家避难
06:38
and taken refuge in this house,
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我没敢问他为什么
06:40
why he had turned up and wanted to have his photograph taken with me.
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他突然出现，还想和我一起照照片。
06:44
But 18 months later, I asked him
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但18月后，我问他
06:46
why he had tried to shoot me.
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为什么曾试图射杀我。
06:48
And Mullah Mustafa -- he's the man with the pen and paper --
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然后Mullah Mustafa——他是拿着纸笔的那位——
06:50
explained that the man sitting immediately to the left as you look at the photograph,
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解释给我说，用你的角度看坐我在紧左边的这位，
06:53
Nadir Shah
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（名）Nadir Shah
06:55
had bet him that he couldn't hit me.
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和他打赌，他打不着我。
06:58
Now this is not to say
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我的意思不是说
07:00
Afghanistan is a place full of people like Mullah Mustafa.
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阿富汗的人都跟Mullah Mustafa似的。
07:03
It's not; it's a wonderful place
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不是的；那是一个很好的地方
07:06
full of incredible energy and intelligence.
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充满了活力和智慧。
07:09
But it is a place
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但同是此地
07:11
where the putting-in of the troops
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被注入了部队
07:13
has increased the violence rather than decreased it.
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暴力增加了，而非减少。
07:16
2005, Anthony Fitzherbert,
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2005年，（名） Anthony Fitzherbert，
07:18
an agricultural engineer,
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农业工程师，
07:20
could travel through Helmand,
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能通过 Helmand，
07:22
could stay in Nad Ali, Sangin and Ghoresh,
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能在 Nad Ali, Sangin 和 Ghoresh 停留歇脚，
07:24
which are now the names of villages where fighting is taking place.
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这些村庄现而今都是战地。
07:27
Today, he could never do that.
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今天，他不可能再这样旅行了。
07:30
So the idea that we deployed the troops
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所以，若说我们是回应塔利班的崛起
07:32
to respond to the Taliban insurgency
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而部署部队
07:34
is mistaken.
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此说法是错误的。
07:36
Rather than preceding the insurgency,
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塔利班的崛起不是在部队之前，
07:38
the Taliban followed the troop deployment,
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而是随部队的部署而来。
07:41
and as far as I'm concerned,
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依我看，
07:43
the troop deployment caused their return.
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部队的部署导致了塔利班的归来。
07:46
Now is this a new idea?
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这是个新说法吗？
07:48
No, there have been any number of people
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不是，在过去的七年里，
07:50
saying this over the last seven years.
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已经有许多人提出过此观点。
07:53
I ran a center at Harvard
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我于2008到2010年在哈佛
07:55
from 2008 to 2010,
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主持一个学术中心。
07:57
and there were people like Michael Semple there
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在那儿的人，像 Michael Semple
07:59
who speak Afghan languages fluently,
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能说流利的阿富汗语，
08:01
who've traveled to almost every district in the country.
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他游遍了阿富汗几乎所有地方。
08:04
Andrew Wilder, for example,
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又例如 Andrew Wilder，
08:07
born on the Pakistan-Iranian border,
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出生在巴基斯坦和伊朗的边境线上，
08:10
served his whole life
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一生都工作在
08:12
in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
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巴基斯坦和阿富汗。
08:14
Paul Fishstein who began working there in 1978 --
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Paul Fishstein 从1978年起就开始在那工作——
08:16
worked for Save the Children,
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在“拯救儿童”（慈善机构——译者注），
08:18
ran the Afghan research and evaluation unit.
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负责阿富汗的研究和评估小组。
08:22
These are people
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这些人，他们有这个资格
08:24
who were able to say consistently
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而且他们从始至终都说
08:26
that the increase in development aid
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增加发展援助
08:28
was making Afghanistan less secure, not more secure --
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只会使阿富汗变危险，而非安全——
08:31
that the counter-insurgency strategy
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而平息反叛的战略
08:33
was not working and would not work.
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起不了作用也将不会起作用。
08:36
And yet, nobody listened to them.
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但是，没人听他们的。
08:39
Instead,
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反之，
08:41
there was a litany of astonishing optimism.
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一连串令人惊讶的乐观。
08:43
Beginning in 2004,
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从2004年开始，
08:46
every general came in saying,
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每一位将军上位后都说，
08:49
"I've inherited a dismal situation,
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“尽管我继承下来的是一幅惨淡局面，
08:51
but finally I have the right resources and the correct strategy,
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但终于我有了合适的资源和正确的战略，
08:54
which will deliver,"
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将创造，“
08:56
in General Barno's word in 2004,
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用 Barno 将军2004年的原话，
08:58
the "decisive year."
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那“具有决定性的一年”
09:00
Well guess what? It didn't.
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你猜怎么着？他食言了。
09:02
But it wasn't sufficient to prevent General Abuzaid saying
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但这并不足以阻止 Abuzaid 将军说
09:05
that he had the strategy and the resources
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他拥有战略和资源
09:07
to deliver, in 2005,
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来创造， 在2005年，
09:09
the "decisive year."
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那“具有决定性的一年”；
09:11
Or General David Richards to come in 2006
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或 David Richards 将军2006年上任时
09:14
and say he had the strategy and the resources
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说他有合适的战略和资源
09:16
to deliver the "crunch year."
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可带来“关键的一年”。
09:18
Or in 2007,
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或是2007年，
09:20
the Norwegian deputy foreign minister, Espen Eide,
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挪威外交部副部长 Espen Eide,
09:23
to say that that would deliver the "decisive year."
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说那将创造 “具有决定性的一年”。
09:26
Or in 2008, Major General Champoux
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或2008年，Champoux 少将
09:28
to come in and say he would deliver the "decisive year."
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上任后说他将带来 “具有决定性的一年”。
09:31
Or in 2009, my great friend,
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或是2009年，我的好友，
09:33
General Stanley McChrystal,
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Stanley McChrystal 将军，
09:35
who said that he was "knee-deep in the decisive year."
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说他已经 “坚定地迈入这决定性的一年中了。”
09:38
Or in 2010,
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或是2010年，
09:40
the U.K. foreign secretary, David Miliband,
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英国外交秘书，David Miliband,
09:43
who said that at last we would deliver the "decisive year."
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说我们至少创造了 “具有决定性的一年”。
09:46
And you'll be delighted to hear in 2011, today,
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2001年的今天，你一定会高兴地听到，
09:49
that Guido Westerwelle, the German foreign minister,
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德国外交部长，Guido Westerwelle，
09:52
assures us that we are in the "decisive year."
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说让我们放心，因为我们处在了 “具有决定性的一年”。
09:57
(Applause)
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（鼓掌声）
10:03
How do we allow
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我们是怎么
10:05
any of this to happen?
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让这一切发生的？
10:07
Well the answer, of course, is,
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答案，当然，是因为，
10:09
if you spend 125 billion or 130 billion
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如果你在一个国家每年
10:11
dollars a year in a country,
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花 1250 亿或 1300亿美元，
10:14
you co-opt almost everybody.
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你得和几乎所有人合作，
10:16
Even the aid agencies,
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甚至连援助机构
10:18
who begin to receive an enormous amount of money
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由于他们从美国和欧洲政府
10:20
from the U.S. and the European governments
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那里收到巨资
10:22
to build schools and clinics,
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建设学校和诊所
10:24
are somewhat disinclined
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他们也开始不愿意
10:26
to challenge the idea
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挑战和面对现存的说法
10:28
that Afghanistan is an existential threat
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说阿富汗对全球安全
10:30
to global security.
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存在极大威胁。
10:32
They're worried, in other words,
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换句话说，他们担心，
10:34
that if anybody believes that it wasn't such a threat --
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如果人们相信那里没有那么大的威胁，
10:36
Oxfam, Save the Children
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像乐施会和拯救儿童这样的慈善机构
10:38
wouldn't get the money
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将失去这些资金
10:40
to build their hospitals and schools.
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也就建不成他们的医院和学校。
10:42
It's also very difficult to confront a general
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另外你很难在一位胸前挂满勋章
10:44
with medals on his chest.
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的将军面前提出异议。
10:46
It's very difficult for a politician,
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对政客来说这很难，
10:49
because you're afraid that many lives have been lost in vain.
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你怕或许这么多人白白浪费了生命。
10:52
You feel deep, deep guilt.
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你深深感到愧疚。
10:54
You exaggerate your fears,
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你夸大你的恐惧
10:57
and you're terrified about the humiliation
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然后你被竞选失败的屈辱前景
11:00
of defeat.
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吓倒了。
11:02
What is the solution to this?
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如何解决这局面？
11:04
Well the solution to this
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解决的办法是
11:06
is we need to find a way
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我们需要
11:08
that people like Michael Semple, or those other people,
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像 Michael Semple 他们这样的人，
11:11
who are telling the truth, who know the country,
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了解国家的情况，讲述当地的实情，
11:14
who've spent 30 years on the ground --
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在当地有30年的经验——
11:16
and most importantly of all,
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更重要的是，
11:18
the missing component of this --
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这之中缺失的成分——
11:20
Afghans themselves,
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阿富汗的人们，
11:22
who understand what is going on.
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他们明白发生在自己国家的事。
11:25
We need to somehow get their message
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我们需要找到一条渠道，把他们的声音
11:28
to the policymakers.
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传递给决策者。
11:30
And this is very difficult to do
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由于我们的体制
11:32
because of our structures.
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这点很难做到。
11:34
The first thing we need to change
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首先我们需要改变的
11:36
is the structures of our government.
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是我们政府的结构。
11:38
Very, very sadly,
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非常悲哀的是，
11:40
our foreign services, the United Nations,
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2000
我们的使馆，联合国
11:42
the military in these countries
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驻扎在这些国家的军队
11:44
have very little idea of what's going on.
285
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2000
不了解当地情况。
11:46
The average British soldier is on a tour of only six months;
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3000
英国军人驻扎的平均任期只有六个月；
11:49
Italian soldiers, on tours of four months;
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意大利军人，驻扎任期四个月；
11:52
the American military, on tours of 12 months.
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3000
美国军队，驻扎任期十二个月。
11:55
Diplomats are locked in embassy compounds.
289
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3000
驻地的外交人员不让出使馆。
11:58
When they go out, they travel in these curious armored vehicles
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即使出行，也是在戒备森严的车辆中
12:01
with these somewhat threatening security teams
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3000
并有吓人的保镖陪伴
12:04
who ready 24 hours in advance
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2000
你还要提前24小时预定这些保镖
12:06
who say you can only stay on the ground for an hour.
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他们只准许你在外边停留一个小时。
12:08
In the British embassy in Afghanistan
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在阿富汗的英国使馆
12:10
in 2008,
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2000
2008年，
12:12
an embassy of 350 people,
296
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2000
整个使馆的350名工作人员，
12:14
there were only three people who could speak Dari,
297
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3000
只有三个人会把阿富汗的主要语言
12:17
the main language of Afghanistan, at a decent level.
298
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3000
波斯语，说到流利的程度。
12:20
And there was not a single Pashto speaker.
299
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3000
没有一个人会讲普什图语的。（阿富汗另一主要语言——译者注）
12:23
In the Afghan section in London
300
728000
3000
在伦敦的阿富汗部
12:26
responsible for governing Afghan policy on the ground,
301
731000
3000
负责制定阿富汗当地政策的部门，
12:29
I was told last year
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2000
去年我被告知
12:31
that there was not a single staff member
303
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2000
在那个部门的对外办公室
12:33
of the foreign office in that section
304
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3000
没有一个成员
12:36
who had ever served
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2000
曾经在
12:38
on a posting in Afghanistan.
306
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2000
阿富汗任过职。
12:40
So we need to change that institutional culture.
307
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2000
所以我们需要改变这种体制文化。
12:42
And I could make the same points about the United States
308
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3000
我可以指出美国有同样的问题
12:45
and the United Nations.
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2000
还有联合国也是。
12:47
Secondly, we need to aim off of the optimism of the generals.
310
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3000
第二，我们需要小心对待将军们的乐观。
12:50
We need to make sure that we're a little bit suspicious,
311
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3000
我们需要一些怀疑态度，
12:53
that we understand that optimism
312
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2000
建立在我们对军队的了解
12:55
is in the DNA of the military,
313
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2000
乐观态度是融在军队的基因中的，
12:57
that we don't respond to it
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我们对这点
12:59
with quite as much alacrity.
315
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2000
不够敏感。
13:01
And thirdly, we need to have some humility.
316
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3000
第三点，我们应该有谦逊的态度。
13:04
We need to begin from the position
317
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2000
我们需要对自己有一个正确的定位
13:06
that our knowledge, our power,
318
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我们的知识，我们的权力，
13:08
our legitimacy
319
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2000
我们的合法性
13:10
is limited.
320
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2000
都时有限的。
13:12
This doesn't mean
321
777000
2000
这并不是说
13:14
that intervention around the world is a disaster.
322
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2000
在世界上的干预都是无益的。
13:16
It isn't.
323
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不是的。
13:18
Bosnia and Kosovo
324
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2000
波斯尼亚和科索沃
13:20
were signal successes,
325
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2000
都是成功的实例，
13:22
great successes.
326
787000
3000
了不起的成功。
13:25
Today when you go to Bosnia
327
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2000
今天你若去波斯尼亚
13:27
it is almost impossible to believe
328
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你是不会相信
13:29
that what we saw in the early 1990s happened.
329
794000
4000
90年代我们看到的那些情景，真正发生过。
13:33
It's almost impossible to believe the progress we've made
330
798000
3000
自从1994年，在我们的帮助下，那里的进展
13:36
since 1994.
331
801000
3000
简直让人无法相信
13:39
Refugee return,
332
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2000
难民回归家园，
13:41
which the United Nations High Commission for Refugees
333
806000
2000
有悖于联合国难民署的预测
13:43
thought would be extremely unlikely,
334
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2000
认为十分不可能发生的事情，
13:45
has largely happened.
335
810000
2000
在那里大规模的发生了。
13:47
A million properties have been returned.
336
812000
2000
一百万份地产被退还。
13:49
Borders between the Bosniak territory
337
814000
2000
波什尼亚克
13:51
and the Bosnian-Serb territory have calmed down.
338
816000
3000
和波斯尼亚塞族之间的边界停止了争端。
13:54
The national army has shrunk.
339
819000
3000
国家的军队缩减了。
13:57
The crime rates in Bosnia today
340
822000
2000
波斯尼亚今天的犯罪率
13:59
are lower than they are in Sweden.
341
824000
3000
比瑞典还要低。
14:03
This has been done
342
828000
2000
成就于此
14:05
by an incredible, principled effort
343
830000
3000
是源于国际社会
14:08
by the international community,
344
833000
2000
了不起的，有原则的努力
14:10
and, of course, above all,
345
835000
2000
当然，最主要的是
14:12
by Bosnians themselves.
346
837000
2000
波斯尼亚人自己的努力。
14:14
But you need to look at context.
347
839000
2000
另外你需要看事发的背景。
14:16
And this is what we've lost in Afghanistan and Iraq.
348
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这是我们在对待阿富汗和伊拉克中缺失的。
14:19
You need to understand that in those places
349
844000
2000
在那里我们要明白
14:21
what really mattered
350
846000
2000
要素是
14:23
was, firstly, the role of Tudman and Milosevic
351
848000
2000
首先，图季曼和米洛舍维奇
14:25
in coming to the agreement,
352
850000
2000
在达成协议中的角色，
14:27
and then the fact those men went,
353
852000
3000
他们的下台，
14:30
that the regional situation improved,
354
855000
2000
当地局势的改善，
14:32
that the European Union could offer Bosnia
355
857000
3000
欧盟能给波斯尼亚
14:35
something extraordinary:
356
860000
2000
带来的是新的开始；
14:37
the chance to be part
357
862000
2000
一个机会
14:39
of a new thing, a new club,
358
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2000
能加入一个新生的俱乐部，
14:41
a chance to join something bigger.
359
866000
3000
一个加入美好前景的机会。
14:44
And finally, we need to understand that in Bosnia and Kosovo,
360
869000
3000
然后，我们需要看明白在波斯尼亚和科索沃，
14:47
a lot of the secret of what we did,
361
872000
2000
我们成就的秘密，
14:49
a lot of the secret of our success,
362
874000
2000
我们成功的秘密，
14:51
was our humility --
363
876000
2000
是我们的谦逊——
14:53
was the tentative nature of our engagement.
364
878000
3000
是我们在干预时小心谨慎。
14:56
We criticized people a lot in Bosnia
365
881000
2000
我们批评了很多波斯尼亚的人
14:58
for being quite slow to take on war criminals.
366
883000
2000
他们对战犯迟迟采取不了行动。
15:00
We criticized them
367
885000
2000
我们批评他们
15:02
for being quite slow to return refugees.
368
887000
2000
在接受难民时行动缓慢。
15:04
But that slowness, that caution,
369
889000
2000
想起克林顿总统开始时说
15:06
the fact that President Clinton initially said
370
891000
3000
美国军队只需驻扎一年，
15:09
that American troops would only be deployed for a year,
371
894000
2000
但正是这缓慢的行动，这谨慎，
15:11
turned out to be a strength,
372
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2000
现在看来是优势，
15:13
and it helped us to put our priorities right.
373
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3000
这帮助了我们搞清重点。
15:16
One of the saddest things
374
901000
2000
在我们对阿富汗的干预中
15:18
about our involvement in Afghanistan
375
903000
2000
最悲哀的莫过于
15:20
is that we've got our priorities out of sync.
376
905000
2000
所有人的重点不一致。
15:22
We're not matching our resources to our priorities.
377
907000
3000
我们的资源配置也不在重点上。
15:25
Because if what we're interested in is terrorism,
378
910000
3000
你看若我们是在反恐，
15:28
Pakistan is far more important than Afghanistan.
379
913000
3000
巴基斯坦远比阿富汗重要。
15:31
If what we're interested in is regional stability,
380
916000
2000
若我们是保卫区域局势稳定，
15:33
Egypt is far more important.
381
918000
2000
埃及相比更加重要。
15:35
If what we're worried about is poverty and development,
382
920000
3000
若我们是在为贫困和发展而担忧，
15:38
sub-Saharan Africa is far more important.
383
923000
3000
撒哈拉以南的非洲应是重点。
15:41
This doesn't mean that Afghanistan doesn't matter,
384
926000
3000
这并不是说阿富汗不重要，
15:44
but that it's one of 40 countries in the world
385
929000
2000
但这只是世界上我们需要
15:46
with which we need to engage.
386
931000
2000
照顾的40个国家之一。
15:48
So if I can finish with a metaphor for intervention,
387
933000
4000
那么如果我可以用一个比喻来形容国际干预，
15:52
what we need to think of
388
937000
3000
我们可以把它
15:55
is something like mountain rescue.
389
940000
3000
想象成山地救援。
15:58
Why mountain rescue?
390
943000
2000
为什么用山地救援比喻？
16:00
Because when people talk about intervention,
391
945000
3000
因为当人们说起国际干预，
16:03
they imagine that some scientific theory --
392
948000
2000
他们脑子里出现的是科学理论——
16:05
the Rand Corporation goes around
393
950000
2000
兰德公司出去
16:07
counting 43 previous insurgencies
394
952000
3000
搜集43个叛乱先例的资料
16:10
producing mathematical formula
395
955000
2000
制出一个数学方程式
16:12
saying you need one trained counter-insurgent
396
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得出的答案告诉你，每20个居民
16:14
for every 20 members of the population.
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需要一个专业反叛部队成员保护。
16:17
This is the wrong way of looking at it.
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这是错误的方法。
16:19
You need to look at it in the way that you look at mountain rescue.
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应该用山地救援的方法看待此任务。
16:22
When you're doing mountain rescue,
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山地救援中，
16:24
you don't take a doctorate in mountain rescue,
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你绝不会套用公式来用于山地救援，
16:27
you look for somebody who knows the terrain.
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你会找个熟悉地形的人。
16:30
It's about context.
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一切因情况而定。
16:32
You understand that you can prepare,
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你可以提前准备，
16:34
but the amount of preparation you can do
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但可准备的程度
16:36
is limited --
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是有限的。
16:38
you can take some water, you can have a map,
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你可以带点些水，带张地图，
16:40
you can have a pack.
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背个包。
16:42
But what really matters
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但真正起确定性因素的问题
16:44
is two kinds of problems --
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是两种困难——
16:46
problems that occur on the mountain
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在山间出现的
16:48
which you couldn't anticipate,
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不可预料的困难，
16:50
such as, for example, ice on a slope,
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例如，山斜坡上结的冰，
16:53
but which you can get around,
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这个还可以避开，
16:55
and problems which you couldn't anticipate
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另外就是你无法预料
16:58
and which you can't get around,
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也没办法避开的困难，
17:00
like a sudden blizzard or an avalanche
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像突发的暴风雪或是雪崩
17:02
or a change in the weather.
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甚至仅是天气的变化。
17:04
And the key to this
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这里的关键
17:06
is a guide who has been on that mountain,
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就是找一个到过此山的向导，
17:09
in every temperature,
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了解在每个温度下
17:11
at every period --
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每季每时此山的状况——
17:13
a guide who, above all,
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最关键的是，这个向导，
17:15
knows when to turn back,
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知道该在何时放弃返回，
17:17
who doesn't press on relentlessly
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在骤然恶化的环境下他不会
17:19
when conditions turn against them.
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一而再，再而三地尝试。
17:21
What we look for
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我们挑选消防员，
17:23
in firemen, in climbers, in policemen,
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警察和登山者时用的条件，
17:26
and what we should look for in intervention,
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也适用于国际干预人员的选择，
17:28
is intelligent risk takers --
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那就是智能的冒险者——
17:30
not people who plunge blind off a cliff,
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不是那些跳入深崖的人，
17:33
not people who jump into a burning room,
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不是冲进熊熊燃烧的房间的人，
17:36
but who weigh their risks,
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而是会判断风险，
17:38
weigh their responsibilities.
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并承担责任的人。
17:40
Because the worst thing we have done in Afghanistan
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因为我们在阿富汗最坏的行动是
17:43
is this idea
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给出了一个理念
17:45
that failure is not an option.
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那就是不准失败。
17:48
It makes failure invisible,
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这使得失败变成了透明的，
17:51
inconceivable and inevitable.
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不可思议的，然后不可避免的。
17:54
And if we can resist
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我们若抵抗住了这
17:56
this crazy slogan,
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疯狂口号的诱惑，
17:58
we shall discover --
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我们就会发现——
18:00
in Egypt, in Syria, in Libya,
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在埃及，叙利亚，利比亚，
18:02
and anywhere else we go in the world --
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还有我们干预的世界各处——
18:05
that if we can often do much less than we pretend,
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若我们能比我们假装出来的，能做到的，要少做一些，
18:08
we can do much more than we fear.
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我们将会做到我们担忧中的，做不到的，要多很多。
18:12
Thank you very much.
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十分感谢。
18:14
(Applause)
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（鼓掌声）
18:16
Thank you. Thank you very much.
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谢谢。十分感谢。
18:19
Thank you. Thank you very much.
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谢谢。十分感谢。
18:22
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
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谢谢。谢谢。谢谢。
18:26
(Applause)
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（鼓掌声）
18:34
Thank you.
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谢谢。
18:36
Thank you. Thank you.
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谢谢。谢谢。
18:38
Thank you.
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谢谢。
18:40
(Applause)
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（鼓掌声）
18:42
Bruno Giussani: Rory, you mentioned Libya at the end.
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Bruno Giussani: 罗伊，你在最后提到利比亚。
18:45
Just briefly, what's your take on the current events there
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简单的，你对那里现状是什么的看法
18:48
and the intervention?
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还有在那里的干预？
18:50
Rory Stewart: Okay, I think Libya poses the classic problem.
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罗伊：好，我认为利比亚是一个经典的问题。
18:53
The problem in Libya
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利比亚的问题是
18:55
is that we are always pushing for the black or white.
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我们总是要非黑既白。
18:57
We imagine there are only two choices:
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我们总想象只有两种选择：
18:59
either full engagement and troop deployment
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或者是完全投入部署部队
19:02
or total isolation.
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或是孤立对方。
19:04
And we are always being tempted up to our neck.
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我们总是忍不住深深的陷进去。
19:07
We put our toes in and we go up to our neck.
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我们刚把脚趾放进去，整个人就陷进去了。
19:09
What we should have done in Libya
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我们在利比亚应该
19:11
is we should have stuck to the U.N. resolution.
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严格遵守联合国决议。
19:13
We should have limited ourselves very, very strictly
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我们应该非常严格把自己的参与限制于
19:16
to the protection of the civilian population in Benghazi.
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保护班加西的平民。
19:19
We could have done that.
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我们本可以做到这点。
19:21
We set up a no-fly zone within 48 hours
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我们在48小时内制定了禁飞区
19:24
because Gaddafi had no planes
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因为卡扎菲在48小时内
19:26
within 48 hours.
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没有飞机。
19:28
Instead of which, we've allowed ourselves to be tempted
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反之，我们没能承受住
19:31
towards regime change.
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改朝换代的诱惑。
19:33
In doing so, we've destroyed our credibility with the Security Council,
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这使得我们在安理会面前失去了信誉，
19:37
which means it's very difficult
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也给叙利亚决议的达成
19:39
to get a resolution on Syria,
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难上加难，
19:41
and we're setting ourselves up again for failure.
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我们再一次为自己埋下了失败的种子。
19:44
Once more, humility,
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再次重申，谦逊态度，
19:46
limits, honesty,
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自限，诚实，
19:48
realistic expectations
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切合实际的期望
19:50
and we could have achieved something to be proud of.
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我们是可以有所成就，并为之自豪的。
19:52
BG: Rory, thank you very much.
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罗伊，非常感谢你。
19:54
RS: Thank you. (BG: Thank you.)
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谢谢。
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Rory Stewart - PoliticianRory Stewart -- a perpetual pedestrian, a diplomat, an adventurer and an author -- is the member of British Parliament for Penrith and the Border.
Why you should listen
Now the member of British Parliament for Penrith and the Border, in rural northwest England, Rory Stewart has led a fascinatingly broad life of public service. He joined the Foreign Office after school, then left to begin a years-long series of walks across the Muslim world. In 2002, his extraordinary walk across post-9/11 Afghanistan resulted in his first book, The Places in Between. After the invasion of Iraq in 2003, he served as a Deputy Governorate Co-Ordinator in Southern Iraq for the coalition forces, and later founded a charity in Kabul.
To secure his Conservative seat in Parliament, he went on a walking tour of Penrith, covering the entire county as he talked to voters. In 2008, Esquire called him one of the 75 most influential people of the 21st century.
He says: "The world isn't one way or another. Things can be changed very, very rapidly by someone with sufficient confidence, sufficient knowledge and sufficient authority."
Rory Stewart | Speaker | TED.com