14:26
TED2013

Andrew McAfee: What will future jobs look like?

Hvordan vil de fremtidige job se ud?

Filmed:

Økonom Andrew McAfee foreslår at, ja, sandsynligvis, vil robotter tage vores job -- eller i det mindste den slags jobs vi kender nu. I dette langsigtede foredrag, gennemtænker han hvordan fremtidige jobs kunne se ud, og hvordan vi uddanner de kommende generationer til at udføre dem.

- Management theorist
Andrew McAfee studies how information technology affects businesses and society. Full bio

The writer George Eliot cautioned us that,
Forfatteren George Eliot advarede os om,
00:12
among all forms of mistake,
at imellem alle former for fejltagelser,
00:15
prophesy is the most gratuitous.
er det at profetere det mest ufortjente.
00:17
The person that we would all acknowledge
Personen som vi alle ville anerkende
00:19
as her 20th-century counterpart, Yogi Berra, agreed.
som hendes modstykke fra det 20. århundrede,
Yogi Berra, var enig.
00:21
He said, "It's tough to make predictions,
Han sagde, "Det er hårdt at komme med forudsigelser,
00:25
especially about the future."
specielt om fremtiden."
00:27
I'm going to ignore their cautions
Jeg vil ignorere deres advarsler
00:30
and make one very specific forecast.
og komme med en meget specifik forudsigelse.
00:32
In the world that we are creating very quickly,
I den verden vi skaber meget hurtigt,
00:34
we're going to see more and more things
vil vi se flere og flere ting
00:36
that look like science fiction,
der ligner science fiction,
00:38
and fewer and fewer things that look like jobs.
og færre og færre ting der ligner jobs.
00:40
Our cars are very quickly going to start driving themselves,
Vores biler begynder meget snart at køre sig selv,
00:43
which means we're going to need fewer truck drivers.
hvilket betyder at vi har behov for færre lastbilchauffører.
00:46
We're going to hook Siri up to Watson
Vi forbinder Siri med Watson
00:48
and use that to automate a lot of the work
og bruge det til at automatisere meget arbejde
00:51
that's currently done by customer service reps
der for øjeblikket bliver udført af kundeservice repræsentanter
00:53
and troubleshooters and diagnosers,
og fejlsøgere og folk der diagnosticerer,
00:55
and we're already taking R2D2,
og vi tager allerede R2D2,
00:58
painting him orange, and putting him to work
og maler ham orange, og sætter ham i arbejde
01:00
carrying shelves around warehouses,
med at bære hylder rundt i magasiner,
01:04
which means we need a lot fewer people
hvilket betyder at vi har brug for færre mennesker
01:06
to be walking up and down those aisles.
de går frem og tilbage gennem de gange.
01:08
Now, for about 200 years,
Men, i cirka 200 år,
01:10
people have been saying exactly what I'm telling you --
har mennesker sagt præcis det jeg fortæller jer --
01:14
the age of technological unemployment is at hand —
alderen med teknologisk arbejdsløshed står for døren --
01:16
starting with the Luddites smashing looms in Britain
det begyndte med Ludditerne som knuste væve i Storbritannien
01:19
just about two centuries ago,
for omkring to århundreder siden,
01:22
and they have been wrong.
og de har taget fejl.
01:23
Our economies in the developed world have coasted along
Vores økonomier i den udviklede verden har kørt på frihjul
01:25
on something pretty close to full employment.
på noget der er tæt på fuld beskæftigelse.
01:28
Which brings up a critical question:
Hvilket bringer et kritisk spørgsmål med sig:
01:30
Why is this time different, if it really is?
Hvorfor er det anderledes denne gang,
hvis det virkelig er det?
01:32
The reason it's different is that, just in the past few years,
Grunden til det er anderledes er at,
bare i løbet af de sidste par år,
01:35
our machines have started demonstrating skills
er at vores maskiner er begyndt at udvise færdigheder
01:38
they have never, ever had before:
som de aldrig, nogensinde har haft før:
01:40
understanding, speaking, hearing, seeing,
forstår, taler, hører, ser,
01:43
answering, writing, and they're still acquiring new skills.
svarer, skriver, og de tilegner sig stadig nye færdigheder.
01:46
For example, mobile humanoid robots
For eksempel, bevægelige menneskelignende robotter
01:50
are still incredibly primitive,
er stadig utroligt primitive,
01:53
but the research arm of the Defense Department
men udviklingsdelen af forsvarsministeriet
01:55
just launched a competition
lancerede lige en konkurrence
01:57
to have them do things like this,
for at få dem til at gøre ting som dette,
01:58
and if the track record is any guide,
og hvis resultatlisten er nogen guide,
02:00
this competition is going to be successful.
vil denne konkurrence have stor succes.
02:02
So when I look around, I think the day is not too far off at all
Så når jeg kigger rundt, tror jeg den dag
ikke er så langt væk overhovedet,
02:05
when we're going to have androids
hvor vi har androider
02:08
doing a lot of the work that we are doing right now.
der udfører meget af det arbejde vi udfører nu.
02:10
And we're creating a world where there is going to be
Og vi skaber en verden hvor der vil være
02:13
more and more technology and fewer and fewer jobs.
mere og mere teknologi og færre og færre jobs.
02:17
It's a world that Erik Brynjolfsson and I are calling
Det er en verden som Erik Brynjolfsson og jeg kalder
02:21
"the new machine age."
"den nye maskinalder."
02:23
The thing to keep in mind is that
Det man skal huske på er at
02:24
this is absolutely great news.
dette absolut fantastisk nyt.
02:27
This is the best economic news on the planet these days.
Dette er den bedste økonomiske nyhed på planeten disse dage.
02:29
Not that there's a lot of competition, right?
Ikke at der er særlig stor konkurrence, vel?
02:32
This is the best economic news we have these days
Dette er den bedste økonomiske nyhed vi har i disse dage
02:36
for two main reasons.
på grund af to hovedårsager.
02:38
The first is, technological progress is what allows us
Den første er, den teknologiske process er det der tillader os
02:39
to continue this amazing recent run that we're on
at fortsætte dette fantastiske forløb vi har været på på det sidste
02:42
where output goes up over time,
hvor ydelsen stiger over tid,
02:46
while at the same time, prices go down,
mens på samme tid, priserne går ned,
02:49
and volume and quality just continue to explode.
og volumen og kvalitet bare fortsætter med at eksplodere.
02:52
Now, some people look at this and talk about
Nogle mennesker ser på dette og taler om
02:56
shallow materialism,
overfladisk materialisme,
02:58
but that's absolutely the wrong way to look at it.
men det er absolut den forkerte måde at se det på.
03:00
This is abundance, which is exactly
Dette er overflod, hvilket præcis er
03:02
what we want our economic system to provide.
det vi vil have at vores økonomiske system giver.
03:05
The second reason that the new machine age
En anden grund til at den nye maskinalder
03:08
is such great news is that, once the androids
er så fantastisk nyhed er at, når androiderne
03:11
start doing jobs, we don't have to do them anymore,
begynder at udføre jobs, behøver vi ikke at gøre dem mere,
03:14
and we get freed up from drudgery and toil.
og vi bliver frigjort fra slavearbejde, slid og slæb.
03:17
Now, when I talk about this with my friends
Når jeg taler om dette med mine venner
03:21
in Cambridge and Silicon Valley, they say,
i Cambridge og Silicon Valley, siger de,
03:23
"Fantastic. No more drudgery, no more toil.
"Fantastisk. Ikke mere slavearbejde, ikke mere slid og slæb.
03:25
This gives us the chance to imagine
Dette giver os chancen for at forestille os
03:27
an entirely different kind of society,
en helt anden slags samfund,
03:29
a society where the creators and the discoverers
et samfund hvor skaberne og de opdagende
03:32
and the performers and the innovators
og performerne og innovatørerne
03:35
come together with their patrons and their financiers
finder sammen med deres velgørere og deres finansmænd
03:36
to talk about issues, entertain, enlighten,
for at tale om problemer, underholde, oplyse,
03:40
provoke each other."
provokere hinanden."
03:43
It's a society really, that looks a lot like the TED Conference.
Det er i virkeligheden et samfund,
der ser meget ud som en TED konference.
03:45
And there's actually a huge amount of truth here.
Og der er faktisk en stor mængde sandhed her.
03:49
We are seeing an amazing flourishing taking place.
Vi ser en fantastisk opblomstring finde sted her.
03:52
In a world where it is just about as easy
I en verden hvor det er omtrent lige så sexet
03:55
to generate an object as it is to print a document,
at generere et objekt som det er at printe et dokument,
03:57
we have amazing new possibilities.
har vi fantastiske nye muligheder.
04:00
The people who used to be craftsmen and hobbyists
De mennesker der plejede at være håndværkere og hobbyister
04:02
are now makers, and they're responsible
er nu producenter, og de er ansvarlige
04:06
for massive amounts of innovation.
for en massiv mængde innovation.
04:08
And artists who were formerly constrained
Og kunstnere der tidligere var bundet
04:10
can now do things that were never, ever possible
kan nu gøre ting der aldrig, nogensinde var mulige
04:13
for them before.
for dem før.
04:16
So this is a time of great flourishing,
Dette er en tid med en fantastisk opblomstring,
04:18
and the more I look around, the more convinced I become
og jo mere jeg kigger rundt, jo mere overbevist er jeg blevet om
04:20
that this quote, from the physicist Freeman Dyson,
at dette citat, fra fysikeren Freeman Dyson,
04:23
is not hyperbole at all.
overhovedet ikke er en overdrivelse.
04:26
This is just a plain statement of the facts.
Dette er bare en almindelig udtalelse af fakta.
04:28
We are in the middle of an astonishing period.
Vi er midt i en forbløffende periode.
04:31
["Technology is a gift of God. After the gift of life it is perhaps the greatest of God's gifts. It is the mother of civilizations, of arts and of sciences." — Freeman Dyson]
["Teknologi er Guds gave. Efter livets gave, er det muligvis den største af Guds gaver. Det er moder til civilisationer, til kunst og til videnskab." -- Freeman Dyson]
04:32
Which brings up another great question:
Hvilket bringer et andet spørgsmål med sig:
04:33
What could possibly go wrong in this new machine age?
Hvad kunne der overhovedet gå galt i denne nye maskinalder?
04:36
Right? Great, hang up, flourish, go home.
Ikke? Fedt, læg på, opblomstre, gå hjem.
04:39
We're going to face two really thorny sets of challenges
Vi kommer til at stå overfor to virkelig vanskelige udfordringer
04:42
as we head deeper into the future that we're creating.
i takt med at vi går længere ind i den fremtid vi skaber.
04:45
The first are economic, and they're really nicely summarized
Det første er økonomi, og det er virkelig fint opsummeret
04:48
in an apocryphal story about a back-and-forth
af en apokryfisk historie om en frem og tilbage
04:51
between Henry Ford II and Walter Reuther,
mellem Henry Ford II og Walter Reuther,
04:54
who was the head of the auto workers union.
der var chef for fagforeningen for arbejdere i bilindustrien.
04:57
They were touring one of the new modern factories,
De gik rundt i en af de nye moderne fabrikker,
05:00
and Ford playfully turns to Reuther and says,
og Ford vender sig spøgefuldt mod Reuther og siger,
05:02
"Hey Walter, how are you going to get these robots
"Hey Walter, hvordan vil du få disse robotter
05:05
to pay union dues?"
til at betale fagforeningskontingent?"
05:07
And Reuther shoots back, "Hey Henry,
Og Reuther skyder tilbage, "Hey Henry,
05:09
how are you going to get them to buy cars?"
hvordan får du dem til at købe biler?"
05:11
Reuther's problem in that anecdote
Reuthers problem i den anekdote
05:15
is that it is tough to offer your labor to an economy
er at det er hårdt at sælge sin arbejdskraft i en økonomi
05:18
that's full of machines,
der er fuld af maskiner,
05:22
and we see this very clearly in the statistics.
og det ser vi meget tydeligt i statistikkerne.
05:24
If you look over the past couple decades
Hvis man ser tilbage over de sidste par årtier
05:26
at the returns to capital -- in other words, corporate profits --
på kapitalafkastet -- med andre ord, virksomheders overskud --
05:29
we see them going up,
ser vi en stigning,
05:32
and we see that they're now at an all-time high.
og vi ser at de nu er højere end nogensinde før.
05:34
If we look at the returns to labor, in other words
Hvis vi ser på afkastet til arbejderne , med andre ord
05:36
total wages paid out in the economy,
den totale løn der bliver betalt ud i økonomien,
05:39
we see them at an all-time low
ser vi at de nu er lavere end nogensinde før
05:41
and heading very quickly in the opposite direction.
og er meget hurtigt på vej i den anden retning.
05:43
So this is clearly bad news for Reuther.
Dette er tydeligvis virkelig dårlig nyt for Reuther.
05:46
It looks like it might be great news for Ford,
Det ser ud til at det måske er godt nyt for Ford,
05:48
but it's actually not. If you want to sell
men det er det faktisk ikke. Hvis man vil sælge
05:52
huge volumes of somewhat expensive goods to people,
store mængder af forholdsvis kostbare produkter til mennesker,
05:54
you really want a large, stable, prosperous middle class.
vil man virkelig gerne have en stor,
stabil, velstående middelklasse.
05:57
We have had one of those in America
Sådan en havde vi i USA
06:01
for just about the entire postwar period.
i cirka hele perioden efter krigen.
06:03
But the middle class is clearly under huge threat right now.
Men middelklassen står tydeligvis overfor
en kæmpestor trussel lige nu.
06:06
We all know a lot of the statistics,
Vi kender alle mange af statistikkerne,
06:10
but just to repeat one of them,
men bare for at gentage en af dem,
06:12
median income in America has actually gone down
er medianindkomsten i USA faktisk faldet
06:14
over the past 15 years,
i løbet af de sidste 15 år,
06:17
and we're in danger of getting trapped
og vi er i fare for at blive fanget
06:18
in some vicious cycle where inequality and polarization
i en ond cirkel hvor ulighed og polarisering
06:20
continue to go up over time.
fortsætter med at stige fremover.
06:24
The societal challenges that come along
De samfundsmæssige udfordringer der følger med
06:27
with that kind of inequality deserve some attention.
den slags ulighed fortjener opmærksomhed.
06:30
There are a set of societal challenges
Der er et sæt samfundsmæssige ændringer
06:32
that I'm actually not that worried about,
som jeg faktisk ikke er så bekymret for,
06:34
and they're captured by images like this.
og de er fanget af billeder som dette.
06:36
This is not the kind of societal problem
Dette er en den slags samfundsmæssige problem
06:38
that I am concerned about.
som jeg er bekymret for.
06:40
There is no shortage of dystopian visions
Der er ikke nogen mangel på dystopiske visioner
06:42
about what happens when our machines become self-aware,
om hvad der sker når vores maskiner bliver selvbevidste
06:45
and they decide to rise up and coordinate attacks against us.
og de beslutter sig for at gøre oprør imod os
og koordinere angreb mod os.
06:48
I'm going to start worrying about those
Jeg begynder at bekymre mig om dem
06:51
the day my computer becomes aware of my printer.
den dag mig computer bliver bevidst om min printer.
06:53
(Laughter) (Applause)
(Latter) (Bifald)
06:56
So this is not the set of challenges we really need to worry about.
Så dette er ikke udfordringer
som vi virkelig behøver at bekymre os om.
07:00
To tell you the kinds of societal challenges
For at fortælle jer hvilken slags samfundsmæssige udfordringer
07:03
that are going to come up in the new machine age,
der vil opstå i den nye maskinalder,
07:06
I want to tell a story about two stereotypical American workers.
vil jeg fortælle en historie om to
stereotypiske amerikanske arbejdere.
07:08
And to make them really stereotypical,
Og for at gøre dem virkelig stereotype,
07:12
let's make them both white guys.
så lad os begge gøre dem til hvide fyre.
07:13
And the first one is a college-educated
Og den første er en universitetsuddannet
07:15
professional, creative type, manager,
professionel, kreativ slags, manager,
07:19
engineer, doctor, lawyer, that kind of worker.
ingeniør, læge, advokat, den slags arbejder.
07:22
We're going to call him "Ted."
Vi kalder ham "Ted."
07:25
He's at the top of the American middle class.
Han er i toppen af den amerikanske middelklasse.
07:28
His counterpart is not college-educated
Hans modstykke er ikke universitetsuddannet
07:30
and works as a laborer, works as a clerk,
han arbejder som arbejder, arbejder som kontorfunktionær,
07:33
does low-level white collar or blue collar work in the economy.
udfører lav-niveau funktionærarbejde
eller arbejder arbejde i økonomien.
07:36
We're going to call that guy "Bill."
Vi kalder den fyr "Bill."
07:39
And if you go back about 50 years,
Og hvis man går cirka 50 år tilbage,
07:41
Bill and Ted were leading remarkably similar lives.
levede Bill og Ted påfaldende ens liv.
07:44
For example, in 1960 they were both very likely
For eksempel, i 1960 var der stor sandsynlighed for
07:47
to have full-time jobs, working at least 40 hours a week.
at de begge havde fuldtidsjobs,
arbejdede mindst 40 timer om ugen.
07:50
But as the social researcher Charles Murray has documented,
Men som den sociale forsker Charles Murray har dokumenteret,
07:53
as we started to automate the economy,
begyndte vi at automatisere økonomien,
07:57
and 1960 is just about when computers started to be used by businesses,
og 1960 er cirka den tid hvor computere
begyndte at blive anvendt i virksomheder,
07:59
as we started to progressively inject technology
i takt med at vi gradvist tilfører teknologi
08:04
and automation and digital stuff into the economy,
og automatisering og digitale ting ind i økonomien,
08:07
the fortunes of Bill and Ted diverged a lot.
afvigede Bills og Teds formue sig meget.
08:09
Over this time frame, Ted has continued
I løbet af denne tidsramme, har Ted fortsat
08:12
to hold a full-time job. Bill hasn't.
et fuldtidsjob. Det har Bill ikke.
08:14
In many cases, Bill has left the economy entirely,
I mange tilfælde, har Bill forladt økonomien fuldstændigt,
08:17
and Ted very rarely has.
og det har Ted sjældent.
08:21
Over time, Ted's marriage has stayed quite happy.
Over tid, er Teds ægteskab forblevet temmelig lykkeligt.
08:24
Bill's hasn't.
Det har Bills ikke.
08:27
And Ted's kids have grown up in a two-parent home,
Og Teds unger er vokset op i et to-forældre hjem,
08:29
while Bill's absolutely have not over time.
mens Bills absolut ikke har det over tid.
08:32
Other ways that Bill is dropping out of society?
Andre måder hvorpå Bill falder ud af samfundet?
08:35
He's decreased his voting in presidential elections,
Han stemmer mindre ofte ved præsidentvalg,
08:38
and he's started to go to prison a lot more often.
og han er begyndt at komme i fængsel meget oftere.
08:41
So I cannot tell a happy story about these social trends,
Så jeg kan ikke fortælle jer en lykkelig historie
om disse sociale tendenser,
08:45
and they don't show any signs of reversing themselves.
og de viser ikke nogen tegn på at ændre sig.
08:49
They're also true no matter which ethnic group
De er også sande, uanset hvilken etnisk gruppe
08:52
or demographic group we look at,
eller demografisk gruppe vi kigger på,
08:55
and they're actually getting so severe
og det bliver faktisk så alvorligt
08:57
that they're in danger of overwhelming
at de er i fare for at overrumple
08:59
even the amazing progress we made with the Civil Rights Movement.
selv de fantastiske fremskridt vi har gjort
med borgerrettighedsbevægelsen
09:00
And what my friends in Silicon Valley
Og det mine venner i Silicon Valley
09:04
and Cambridge are overlooking is that they're Ted.
og Cambridge ikke ser er at de er Ted.
09:07
They're living these amazingly busy, productive lives,
De lever disse utrolig travle, produktive liv,
09:12
and they've got all the benefits to show from that,
og de har alle fordelene de kan vise fra det,
09:15
while Bill is leading a very different life.
mens Bill lever et meget anderledes liv.
09:18
They're actually both proof of how right Voltaire was
De er faktisk begge bevis på hvor meget Voltaire havde ret
09:20
when he talked about the benefits of work,
da han talte om fordelene ved arbejde,
09:22
and the fact that it saves us from not one but three great evils.
og det faktum at det redder os fra, ikke en, men tre store onder.
09:25
["Work saves a man from three great evils: boredom, vice and need." — Voltaire]
["Arbejde redder en mand fra tre store onder: kedsommelighed, last og behov." -- Voltaire]
09:28
So with these challenges, what do we do about them?
Med disse udfordringer, hvad gør vi så ved dem?
09:29
The economic playbook is surprisingly clear,
Den økonomiske drejebog er overraskende tydelig,
09:32
surprisingly straightforward, in the short term especially.
overraskende ligetil, især på kort sigt.
09:35
The robots are not going to take all of our jobs in the next year or two,
Robotterne tager ikke alle vores job i løbet af det næste år eller to,
09:38
so the classic Econ 101 playbook is going to work just fine:
så den klassiske Økonomi for begyndere vil fortsat fungere helt fint:
09:41
Encourage entrepreneurship,
Tilskynd iværksætterånd,
09:46
double down on infrastructure,
fordobbel infrastruktur,
09:48
and make sure we're turning out people
og sikre at vi uddanner mennesker
09:50
from our educational system with the appropriate skills.
i vores uddannelsessystem med de nødvendige færdigheder.
09:52
But over the longer term, if we are moving into an economy
Men på lang sigt, hvis vi flytter til en økonomi
09:55
that's heavy on technology and light on labor,
der er tung på teknologi og let på arbejde,
09:58
and we are, then we have to consider
og det gør vi, så skal vi overveje
10:01
some more radical interventions,
nogle mere radikale opfindelser,
10:04
for example, something like a guaranteed minimum income.
for eksempel, noget som en garanteret minimumsindkomst.
10:05
Now, that's probably making some folk in this room uncomfortable,
Det gør sikkert nogle af menneskerne i dette lokale ilde til mode,
10:09
because that idea is associated with the extreme left wing
fordi den ide er associeret med den ekstreme venstrefløj
10:12
and with fairly radical schemes for redistributing wealth.
og med temmelig radikale planer for at omfordele velstanden.
10:16
I did a little bit of research on this notion,
Jeg lavede lidt forskning i denne ide,
10:19
and it might calm some folk down to know that
og det kan berolige nogle mennesker at vide at
10:21
the idea of a net guaranteed minimum income
ideen om en garanteret minimumsindkomst
10:24
has been championed by those frothing-at-the-mouth socialists
er anbefalet af de frådende socialister
10:26
Friedrich Hayek, Richard Nixon and Milton Friedman.
Friedrich Hayek, Richard Nixon og Milton Friedman.
10:30
And if you find yourself worried
Og hvis man føler sig bekymret
10:35
that something like a guaranteed income
over at noget som en garanteret indkomst
10:37
is going to stifle our drive to succeed
vil kvæle vores gåpåmod til at lykkedes
10:40
and make us kind of complacent,
og gøre os magelige,
10:42
you might be interested to know that social mobility,
vil man være interesseret i at vide at den sociale mobilitet,
10:44
one of the things we really pride ourselves on in the United States,
en af de ting vi virkelig er stolte over i USA,
10:47
is now lower than it is in the northern European countries
er nu lavere end i de Nordeuropæiske lande
10:50
that have these very generous social safety nets.
der har disse meget generøse sociale sikkerhedsnet.
10:53
So the economic playbook is actually pretty straightforward.
Så den økonomiske drejebog er faktisk temmelig ligetil.
10:56
The societal one is a lot more challenging.
Den samfundsmæssige er meget mere udfordrende.
10:59
I don't know what the playbook is
Jeg ved ikke hvad drejebogen er her
11:02
for getting Bill to engage and stay engaged throughout life.
for at få Bill engageret og forblive engageret igennem hele livet.
11:04
I do know that education is a huge part of it.
Jeg ved at uddannelse er en stor del af det.
11:08
I witnessed this firsthand.
Det har jeg set ved selvsyn.
11:11
I was a Montessori kid for the first few years of my education,
Jeg var et Montessori barn i de første år af min uddannelse,
11:12
and what that education taught me
og det uddannelse har lært mig
11:16
is that the world is an interesting place
er at verden er et interessant sted
11:18
and my job is to go explore it.
og mit job er at komme ud og udforske den.
11:20
The school stopped in third grade,
Skolen stoppede i tredje klasse,
11:22
so then I entered the public school system,
og så startede jeg i det offentlige skolesystem,
11:24
and it felt like I had been sent to the Gulag.
og jeg følte at jeg var blevet sendt i Gulaglejrene.
11:26
With the benefit of hindsight, I now know the job
Med bagklogskabens fordel, ved jeg nu at jobbet
11:30
was to prepare me for life as a clerk or a laborer,
var at forberede mig på livet som
kontorfunktionær eller arbejder,
11:33
but at the time it felt like the job was to kind of
men på det tidspunkt føltes det som om jobbet skulle
11:36
bore me into some submission with what was going on around me.
kede mig ind i underkastelse med det der skete omkring mig.
11:38
We have to do better than this.
Vi skal gøre det bedre end det.
11:42
We cannot keep turning out Bills.
Vi kan ikke forsætte med at uddanne til at blive Bill.
11:43
So we see some green shoots that things are getting better.
Vi ser nogle håbefulde tegn på at det bliver bedre.
11:47
We see technology deeply impacting education
Vi ser teknologi der dybt påvirker uddannelse
11:49
and engaging people, from our youngest learners
og engagerer folk, fra vores yngste elever
11:52
up to our oldest ones.
til de ældste.
11:55
We see very prominent business voices telling us
Vi ser meget prominente erhvervsstemmer der fortæller os
11:57
we need to rethink some of the things that we've been holding dear for a while.
at vi skal revurdere nogle af de ting
som vi har elsket på det seneste.
11:59
And we see very serious and sustained
Og vi ser meget alvorlige og vedvarende
12:02
and data-driven efforts to understand
og data-drevne anstrengelser til at forstå
12:05
how to intervene in some of the most troubled communities that we have.
hvordan man skal gribe ind hos nogle af de
mest urohærgede samfund vi har.
12:07
So the green shoots are out there.
Så de håbefulde tegn er derude.
12:11
I don't want to pretend for a minute
Jeg kunne aldrig finde på at lade som om
12:13
that what we have is going to be enough.
at de der sker nu vil være nok.
12:15
We're facing very tough challenges.
Vi står overfor meget svære udfordringer.
12:17
To give just one example, there are about five million Americans
For bare at give et eksempel,
der er omkring fem millioner amerikanere
12:19
who have been unemployed for at least six months.
der har været arbejdsløse i de sidste seks måneder.
12:22
We're not going to fix things for them
Vi løser ikke deres problemer
12:25
by sending them back to Montessori.
ved at sende dem tilbage til Montessori.
12:26
And my biggest worry is that we're creating a world
Og min største bekymring er at vi skaber en verden
12:28
where we're going to have glittering technologies
hvor vi vil have strålende teknologier
12:31
embedded in kind of a shabby society
indlagt i en slags usselt samfund
12:33
and supported by an economy that generates inequality
og støttet af en økonomi der skaber ulighed
12:36
instead of opportunity.
i stedet for muligheder.
12:39
But I actually don't think that's what we're going to do.
Men jeg tror faktisk ikke det er det vi kommer til at gøre.
12:40
I think we're going to do something a lot better
Jeg tror vi kommer til at gøre noget meget bedre
12:43
for one very straightforward reason:
på grund af en meget simpel årsag:
12:44
The facts are getting out there.
Kendsgerningerne kommer frem.
12:47
The realities of this new machine age
Realiteterne om denne nye maskinalder
12:49
and the change in the economy are becoming more widely known.
og ændringerne i økonomien bliver mere almen kendte.
12:51
If we wanted to accelerate that process, we could do things
Hvis vi ville accelerere den process, kunne vi gøre ting
12:54
like have our best economists and policymakers
som at få vores bedste økonomer og beslutningstagere
12:57
play "Jeopardy!" against Watson.
spille "Jeopardy!" imod Watson.
13:00
We could send Congress on an autonomous car road trip.
Vi kunne sende kongressen på en autonom bil road trip.
13:02
And if we do enough of these kinds of things,
Og hvis vi gør nok af den slags ting,
13:05
the awareness is going to sink in that things are going to be different.
vil bevidstheden gå op for at tingene vil ændre sig.
13:07
And then we're off to the races,
Og så er løbet sat i gang,
13:11
because I don't believe for a second
fordi jeg tror ikke et øjeblik på
13:12
that we have forgotten how to solve tough challenges
at vi har glemt hvordan man løser hårde udfordringer
13:15
or that we have become too apathetic or hard-hearted to even try.
eller at vi er blevet for apatiske eller
hårdhjertede til bare at prøve.
13:18
I started my talk with quotes from wordsmiths
Jeg startede mit foredrag med citatet fra ordsmede
13:22
who were separated by an ocean and a century.
der var adskilt af et hav og et århundrede.
13:24
Let me end it with words from politicians
Lad mig slutte af med ordene fra politikere
13:27
who were similarly distant.
der var lige så fjernt fra hinanden.
13:29
Winston Churchill came to my home of MIT in 1949,
Winston Churchill kom til mit hjem, MIT i 1949,
13:31
and he said, "If we are to bring the broad masses
og han sagde, "Hvis vi skal bringe store mængder
13:34
of the people in every land to the table of abundance,
af folket i hvert land til overflødighedens bord,
13:37
it can only be by the tireless improvement
kan det kun ske ved hjælpe af den utrættelige forbedring
13:40
of all of our means of technical production."
af alle vores metoder til teknisk produktion."
13:43
Abraham Lincoln realized there was one other ingredient.
Abraham Lincoln indså at der var en anden ingrediens.
13:46
He said, "I am a firm believer in the people.
Han sagde, "Jeg er tror fuldt og fast på folket.
13:49
If given the truth, they can be depended upon
Hvis de får sandheden at vide, kan de stoles på
13:52
to meet any national crisis.
til at imødekomme enhver national krise.
13:54
The great point is to give them the plain facts."
Den store pointe er at give dem de simple fakta."
13:57
So the optimistic note, great point that I want to leave you with
Altså den optimistiske bemærkning,
fantastiske pointe som jeg vil efterlade jer med
13:59
is that the plain facts of the machine age are becoming clear,
er at de simple fakta om maskinalderen bliver tydelige,
14:02
and I have every confidence that we're going to use them
og jeg har al tiltro til at vi kommer til at bruge dem
14:06
to chart a good course into the challenging,
til at udstikke en god kurs i den udfordrende
14:08
abundant economy that we're creating.
overdådige økonomi som vi skaber.
14:11
Thank you very much.
Mange tak.
14:14
(Applause)
(Bifald)
14:15

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About the Speaker:

Andrew McAfee - Management theorist
Andrew McAfee studies how information technology affects businesses and society.

Why you should listen

Andrew McAfee studies the ways that information technology (IT) affects businesses, business as a whole, and the larger society. His research investigates how IT changes the way companies perform, organize themselves and compete. At a higher level, his work also investigates how computerization affects competition, society, the economy and the workforce.

He's a principal research scientist at the Center for Digital Business at the MIT Sloan School of Management. His books include Enterprise 2.0 and Race Against the Machine (with Erik Brynjolfsson). Read more on his blog.

 

More profile about the speaker
Andrew McAfee | Speaker | TED.com