TEDGlobal 2009
Steven Cowley: Fusion is energy's future
Steven Cowley: Fyusyon ang enerhiya sa hinaharap
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Ang pisisistang si Steven Cowley ay nakatitiyak na ang fyusyon ang tanging pangmatagalang solusyon sa krisis sa enerhiya. Ipinaliwanag nya kung bakit ang fyusyon ay mangyayari – at ang mga detalye ng mga proyekto na pinagtuunan nya at ng iba pa nyang kasamahan ng halos buong buhay upang maisaganap sa mas medaling panahon ang paglikha ng bagong pagkukunan ng enerhiya.
Steven Cowley - Physicist
Steven Cowley directs the UK's leading fusion research center. Soon he'll helm new experiments that may make cheap fusion energy real on a commercial scale. Full bio
Steven Cowley directs the UK's leading fusion research center. Soon he'll helm new experiments that may make cheap fusion energy real on a commercial scale. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
The key question is, "When are we going to get fusion?"
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Ang pangunahing tanong ay “Kailan natin makukuha ang enerhiya mula sa fyusyon?”
00:20
It's really been a long time since we've known about fusion.
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Matagal na rin ang panahon magmula ng ito ay madiskubre.
00:23
We've known about fusion since 1920,
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Alam na natin ito mula pa noong 1920,
00:25
when Sir Arthur Stanley Eddington
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noong si Sir Arthur Stanley Eddington
00:27
and the British Association for the Advancement of Science
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at ang British Association for the Advancement of Science
00:30
conjectured that that's why the sun shines.
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ay nagpanukala na ito ang dahilan kung bakit sumisikat ang haring araw.
00:33
I've always been very worried about resource.
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Ako’y laging nagaalala tungkol sa pagkukunan ng enerhiya.
00:36
I don't know about you, but
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Hindi ko alam kung ano nasa isip nyo, pero
00:38
when my mother gave me food,
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pag ako ay binigyan ng pagkain ng nanay ko
00:40
I always sorted the ones I disliked
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lagi kong pinipili ang mga hindi ko gusto
00:43
from the ones I liked.
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sa mga gusto ko.
00:45
And I ate the disliked ones first,
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at una kong kinakain ang mga hindi ko gusto,
00:47
because the ones you like, you want to save.
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dahil ang mga gusto mo ay nais mong tipirin.
00:51
And as a child you're always worried about resource.
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At sa pagiging bata nagaalala ka na sa pagkukunan ng enerhiya.
00:54
And once it was sort of explained to me
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At ng maipaliwanag sa akin
00:57
how fast we were using up the world's resources,
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kung gaano kabilis gamitin ng tao ang energhiya ng daigdig,
01:01
I got very upset,
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Ako ay nagalala,
01:03
about as upset as I did when I realized
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katulad din ng aking pagaalala ng maisip ko
01:05
that the Earth will only last about five billion years
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na ang mundo ay tatagal lamang ng limang bilyong taon
01:07
before it's swallowed by the sun.
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bago ito lamunin ng araw.
01:10
Big events in my life,
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Mga mahahalagang pangyayari sa buhay ko,
01:13
a strange child.
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ng inosenteng bata.
01:15
(Laughter)
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(Tawanan)
01:16
Energy, at the moment, is dominated by resource.
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Halos lahat ng enerhiya sa ngayon ay nagmumula sa minahan.
01:19
The countries that make a lot of money out of energy
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Ang mga bansa na kumikita ng maraming pera sa energhiya
01:22
have something underneath them.
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ay mayroong nakabaong energhiya sa ilalim ng kanilang lupa.
01:25
Coal-powered industrial revolution in this country --
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Na may maunlad na industriya na pinatatakbo ng panggatong na karbon
01:29
oil, gas, sorry.
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Langis at gas, paumanhin po.
01:33
(Laughter)
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(Tawanan)
01:36
Gas, I'm probably the only person
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Gas, ako lang siguro ang tao
01:38
who really enjoys it when Mister Putin
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na masaya ng ipinasara ni Mister Putin
01:40
turns off the gas tap, because my budget goes up.
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ang linya ng tubo ng gas, dahil tumaas ang badyet ko.
01:43
We're really dominated now
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Nadodominahan tayo ngayon
01:48
by those things that we're using up faster and faster and faster.
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ng mga ginagamit nating bagay na mabilis maubos
01:53
And as we try to lift billions of people out of poverty
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At habang pinipilit nating hanguin ang bilyong tao sa kahirapan
01:56
in the Third World, in the developing world,
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sa ikatlong mundo, ng mga umuunlad na bansa,
02:00
we're using energy faster and faster.
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gumagamit tayo ng napakaraming enerhiya.
02:02
And those resources are going away.
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At ang mga pinagkukunan ng enerhiya ay nauubos.
02:04
And the way we'll make energy in the future
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At ang pagkukunan ng energhiya sa hinaharap
02:06
is not from resource,
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ay hindi sa tradisyonal na pagmimina,
02:09
it's really from knowledge.
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ito ay manggagaling sa tunay na kaalman sa agham.
02:11
If you look 50 years into the future,
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Kung titingin tayo ng mga 50 taon sa hinaharap,
02:14
the way we probably will be making energy
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Ang maaaring pagkunan ng enerhiya
02:16
is probably one of these three,
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ay maaaring isa dito sa tatlo,
02:19
with some wind, with some other things,
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maaaring sa hangin, kasama ng iba pang mga bagay,
02:21
but these are going to be the base load energy drivers.
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ngunit ito ay dapat na pangunahing pagmumulan ng enerhiya.
02:24
Solar can do it, and we certainly have to develop solar.
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Maari ding mula sa enerhiya ng araw, at dapat natin itong isaalang alang.
02:29
But we have a lot of knowledge to gain before we can make solar
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Ngunit marami pa tayong dapat pagaralan bago natin magamit ang enerhiya ng araw
02:32
the base load energy supply for the world.
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bilang pangunahing pagkukunan ng enerhiya ng mundo.
02:36
Fission.
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Paghihiwalay ng atomika o fisyon.
02:39
Our government is going to put in six new nuclear power stations.
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Ang ating gobyerno ay magtatayo ng anim na bagong nuklear na planta ng kuryente.
02:43
They're going to put in six new nuclear power stations,
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Sila ay maglalagay ng anim na nuklear na planta ng kuryente,
02:45
and probably more after that.
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at maaaring mahigit pa sa anim.
02:47
China is building nuclear power stations. Everybody is.
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Ang tsina ay magtatayo din ng nuklear na planta ng kuryente. Lahat na yata.
02:49
Because they know that that is one sure way
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Dahil alam nila na ito ay isang tamang paraan
02:52
to do carbon-free energy.
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upang maiwasan ang karbon sa paggamit ng enerhiya.
02:56
But if you wanted to know what the perfect energy source is,
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Pero kung gusto nyong malaman, ang perpektong pagmumulan ng enerhiya ay,
02:59
the perfect energy source is one
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ang perpektong pagmumulan ng enerhiya ay yung
03:01
that doesn't take up much space,
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hindi gagamit ng malaking ispasiyo sa pagtatayo ng planta,
03:04
has a virtually inexhaustible supply,
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tunay na hindi mauubos na enerhiya,
03:07
is safe, doesn't put any carbon into the atmosphere,
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ligtas, at hindi magkakalat ng karbon sa hangin,
03:11
doesn't leave any long-lived radioactive waste:
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walang pangmatagalang basurang radyaktibo:
03:15
it's fusion.
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ito ay pagsasanib ng atomika o fyusyon.
03:17
But there is a catch. Of course there is always a catch in these cases.
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Pero may dapat makuha. At laging may dapat isaalang alang sa nga kasong ito.
03:19
Fusion is very hard to do.
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Napakahirap gawin ng fyusyon.
03:22
We've been trying for 50 years.
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50 taon na naming pinipilit gawin ito.
03:25
Okay. What is fusion? Here comes the nuclear physics.
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Okey. Ano ang fyusyon? Eto na ang nuklear pisika.
03:28
And sorry about that, but this is what turns me on.
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Pasensya na kayo, pero ito ang bumubuhay sa akin.
03:31
(Laughter)
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(Tawanan)
03:33
I was a strange child.
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Ako nga ay inosenteng bata.
03:37
Nuclear energy comes for a simple reason.
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Ang enerhiyang nuklear ay galing sa simpleng dahilan.
03:41
The most stable nucleus is iron, right in the middle of the periodic table.
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Bakal ang pinakamatatag na elemento, na nakalagay sa gitna ng periodic table.
03:45
It's a medium-sized nucleus.
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Ang nukleyus nito ay may katamtamang sukat.
03:47
And you want to go towards iron if you want to get energy.
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At kailangan maging bakal kung gusto mong makakuha ng enerhiya.
03:51
So, uranium, which is very big, wants to split.
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Ang yureyniyum, may napakalaking atomika, ay naghihiwalay.
03:54
But small atoms want to join together,
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Pero ang maliliit na atomika ay nagsasanib,
03:57
small nuclei want to join together
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ang maliit na mga nukleyus ay nagsasanib
03:59
to make bigger ones to go towards iron.
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upang makagawa ng mas malaking atomika upang maging bakal.
04:01
And you can get energy out this way.
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At makakakuha ka ng enerhiya sa paraang ito.
04:03
And indeed that's exactly what stars do.
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At ito nga ang eksaktong nagaganap sa bituin.
04:05
In the middle of stars, you're joining hydrogen together to make helium
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Sa gitna ng mga bituin, nagsasanib ang haydrodyen para maging helium
04:09
and then helium together to make carbon,
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at ang pagsasanib ng helium para gumawa ng karbon,
04:11
to make oxygen, all the things that you're made of
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para gumawa ng oksiheno, lahat ng mga ginagawa mo
04:13
are made in the middle of stars.
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ay ginagawa sa gitna ng mga bituin.
04:16
But it's a hard process to do
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Pero ito ay proseso na mahirap gawin
04:18
because, as you know, the middle of a star is quite hot,
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Dahil alam mo na ang gitna ng bituin ay masyadong mainit,
04:21
almost by definition.
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halos sa kanyang kahulugan.
04:25
And there is one reaction
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At may isang reaksyon
04:28
that's probably the easiest fusion reaction to do.
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na maaaring pinakamadaling gawing reaksyon ng fyusyon.
04:33
It's between two isotopes of hydrogen, two kinds of hydrogen:
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Ito ay sa gitna ng dalawang isotopya ng haydrodyen, dalawang uri ng haydrodyen:
04:37
deuterium, which is heavy hydrogen,
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deyuteryum, ang may mabigat na haydrodyen,
04:40
which you can get from seawater,
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na pwedeng makuha sa tubig dagat,
04:42
and tritium which is super-heavy hydrogen.
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at trityum na may pinakamabigat na haydrodyen.
04:46
These two nuclei, when they're far apart, are charged.
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Itong dalawang nukleyus, kapag magkalayo ay nagkakarga.
04:50
And you push them together and they repel.
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At kapag tinulak mo sila para magsama ay umuurong pahiwalay.
04:53
But when you get them close enough,
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Pero kapag napaglapit sila ng husto,
04:55
something called the strong force starts to act
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ang bagay na tinatawag na malakas na pwersa ay nagsisimulang umaksyon
04:57
and pulls them together.
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at humihila sa kanila para magsanib.
04:59
So, most of the time they repel.
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Mas madalas silang umuurong pahiwalay.
05:01
You get them closer and closer and closer and then at some point
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Kapag napaglapit mo sila ng malapit na malapit sa puntong iyon
05:03
the strong force grips them together.
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ang malakas na pwersa ang magbubuklod sa kanila.
05:06
For a moment they become helium 5,
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Sa pagkakataong iyon sila ay magiging helyum 5,
05:08
because they've got five particles inside them.
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dahil may limang elemento na sa loob nila.
05:10
So, that's that process there. Deuterium and tritium goes together
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Yan ang nangyayaring proseso. Ang deyuteryum at trityum ay nagsasanib
05:12
makes helium 5.
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upang makagawa ng helyum 5.
05:14
Helium splits out, and a neutron comes out
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Ang helyum ay humihiwalay, at lumalabas ang nyutron
05:17
and lots of energy comes out.
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at napakaraming lumalabas na enerhiya dito.
05:19
If you can get something to about 150 million degrees,
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kapag nakuha mo ang mga 150 milyong temperatura,
05:22
things will be rattling around so fast
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ito ay dumadagundong sa kabilisan
05:24
that every time they collide in just the right configuration,
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sa kada oras na sila ay nagbabangga sa tamang kaayusan,
05:28
this will happen, and it will release energy.
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ito ang nangyayari, ang enerhiya ay lumalabas.
05:30
And that energy is what powers fusion.
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At iyan ang enerhiya ng fyusyon.
05:34
And it's this reaction that we want to do.
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At ito ang reaksyon na gusto nating gawin.
05:37
There is one trickiness about this reaction.
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May isang hindi karaniwan sa reaksyong ito.
05:40
Well, there is a trickiness that you have to make it 150 million degrees,
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Ang di nga karaniwan dito ay kailangang maabot mo ang 150 milyong temperatura,
05:43
but there is a trickiness about the reaction yet.
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pero may hindi nga karaniwan tungkol sa reaksyon.
05:46
It's pretty hot.
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Ito ay sobrang init.
05:48
The trickiness about the reaction is that
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Ang hindi karaniwan tungkol sa reaksyon ay
05:50
tritium doesn't exist in nature.
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wala pa talagang trityum.
05:52
You have to make it from something else.
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Kailangan mo pa itong gawin mula sa ibang bagay.
05:54
And you make if from lithium. That reaction at the bottom,
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At magagawa mo ito mula sa lityum. Ang reaksyon sa may ilalim,
05:57
that's lithium 6, plus a neutron,
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ito ang lityum 6, kasama ng nyutron,
06:01
will give you more helium, plus tritium.
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na magbibigay ng maraming helyum, kasama ang trityum.
06:03
And that's the way you make your tritium.
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At yan ang paraan upang makagawa ng trityum.
06:05
But fortunately, if you can do this fusion reaction,
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Pero kung magagawa mo itong reaksyon ng fyusyon,
06:08
you've got a neutron, so you can make that happen.
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may nyutron ka na, kaya nagawa mo na ang dapat gawin.
06:12
Now, why the hell would we bother to do this?
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Ngayon bakit kailangang gawin ang lintik na ito?
06:15
This is basically why we would bother to do it.
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Ito ang pangunahing dahilan kung bakit dapat nating gawin ito.
06:18
If you just plot how much fuel
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Kung ibabalangkas mo kung gaano karaming gasolina
06:22
we've got left, in units of
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ang bahaging natitira sa atin sa
06:24
present world consumption.
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pandaigdigang konsumo ngayon.
06:26
And as you go across there you see
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At kung titingnan mo ang kabuuan
06:29
a few tens of years of oil -- the blue line, by the way,
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ang ilang sampung taon ng langis—ang asul na linyang ito,
06:31
is the lowest estimate of existing resources.
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ay ang pinakamababang kalkula sa natitirang pagkukunan.
06:34
And the yellow line is the most optimistic estimate.
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At ang dilaw na linya ay ang pinaka optimistang kalkula.
06:38
And as you go across there you will see
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At kung titingnan mo pa ang kabuuan nito mapapansin mo
06:40
that we've got a few tens of years, and perhaps 100 years
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may ilang sampung taon na lang tayo, at maaaring isang daang taon
06:42
of fossil fuels left.
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ang natitirang namimina tulad ng langis, karbon at gas,
06:45
And god knows we don't really want to burn all of it,
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At alam ng diyos ayaw nating sunugin ang lahat ng ito,
06:47
because it will make an awful lot of carbon in the air.
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dahil ito ang gagawa ng napakaraming karbon sa hangin.
06:49
And then we get to uranium.
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At tayo ay gagamit ng yureyniyum.
06:52
And with current reactor technology
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At sa teknolohiyang reaktor ngayon
06:54
we really don't have very much uranium.
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wala tayong napakaraming yureyniyum.
06:57
And we will have to extract uranium from sea water,
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At kukunin natin ang yureyniyum sa tubig dagat,
06:59
which is the yellow line,
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Ito ngang dilaw na linya,
07:01
to make conventional nuclear power stations
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upang gumawa ng karaniwang nuklear na planta ng kuryente
07:04
actually do very much for us.
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na tunay na kailangan natin.
07:06
This is a bit shocking, because in fact our government
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Ito ay nakakagulat dahil sa katunayan ang ating gobyerno
07:08
is relying on that for us to meet Kyoto,
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ay umaasa dito para matugunan ang usaping Kyoto,
07:11
and do all those kind of things.
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at para gawin ang lahat ng bagay na ito.
07:13
To go any further you would have to have breeder technology.
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Higit pa dyan kailangan mong magkaroon ng teknolohiyang reaktor.
07:15
And breeder technology is fast breeders. And that's pretty dangerous.
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Ang teknolohiyang reaktor ay napakalakas na reaktor. At ito ay mapanganib din.
07:19
The big thing, on the right,
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At itong malaking bagay sa kanan,
07:21
is the lithium we have in the world.
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ay ang lityum na mayroon sa mundo.
07:23
And lithium is in sea water. That's the yellow line.
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Ang lityum ay nasa tubig dagat. Itong dilaw na linya.
07:26
And we have 30 million years worth of fusion fuel in sea water.
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At mayroon tayong 30 milyong taong dami ng enerhiyang fyusyon sa tubig dagat.
07:30
Everybody can get it. That's why we want to do fusion.
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Ang lahat ay pwedeng kumuha nito. Kaya gusto nating gamitin ang fyusyon.
07:33
Is it cost-competitive?
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Ang halaga ba nito upang magamit ay maaabot?
07:36
We make estimates of what we think it would cost
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Natantya na namin ang maaaring gastos nito
07:38
to actually make a fusion power plant.
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upang gumawa ng fyusyon na planta ng kuryente.
07:40
And we get within about the same price
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At nakalkula namin na halos pareho din ang presyo nito
07:43
as current electricity.
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kumpara sa presyo ng kuryente ngayon.
07:45
So, how would we make it?
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Ngayon, paano nating gagawin ito?
07:47
We have to hold something at 150 million degrees.
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Dapat nating makontrol ang 150 milyong temperatura.
07:50
And, in fact, we've done this.
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At katunayan, nagawa na namin ito.
07:53
We hold it with a magnetic field.
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Nakontrol namin ito gamit ang magnetismong patlang.
07:55
And inside it, right in the middle of this toroidal shape, doughnut shape,
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Sa loob nito, sa may gitna ng pabilog na hugis, katulad ng hugis ng donat,
08:00
right in the middle is 150 million degrees.
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Sa gitna ay may 150 milyong temperatura.
08:02
It boils away in the middle at 150 million degrees.
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Ito ay kumukulo sa gitna ng 150 milyong temperatura.
08:06
And in fact we can make fusion happen.
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At katunayan nagawa na naming mangyari ang fyusyon.
08:08
And just down the road, this is JET.
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Ito ay sa pamamagitan ng kung tawagin ay JET.
08:10
It's the only machine in the world that's actually done fusion.
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Ito lamang ang makina sa mundo na nakagawa ng fyusyon.
08:12
When people say fusion is 30 years away, and always will be,
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Kapag sinabi ng tao na sa 30 taon pa ito magagawa, at ito nga lagi,
08:15
I say, "Yeah, but we've actually done it." Right?
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Sabi ko, “tama, pero ang totoo nagawa na namin ito.”
08:18
We can do fusion. In the center of this device
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Nakagawa na kami ng fyusyon. Sa gitna ng aparatong ito
08:20
we made 16 megawatts of fusion power in 1997.
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nakagawa kami ng 16 megawatts mula sa lakas ng fyusyon noong 1997.
08:23
And in 2013 we're going to fire it up again
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At sa 2013 gagamitin uli namin ito
08:26
and break all those records.
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upang mahigitan pa ang natala na nagawa namin noon.
08:28
But that's not really fusion power. That's just making some fusion happen.
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Pero di pa ito ang kuryente mula sa fyusyon. Ito ay para lang maganap ang fyusyon.
08:31
We've got to take that, we've got to make that into a fusion reactor.
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Kailangan pa naming makuha ito at gawin sa reaktor ng fyusyon.
08:34
Because we want 30 million years worth of fusion power for the Earth.
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Nais naming magbigay ng 30 milyong taong dami ng kuryente mula sa fyusyon sa mundo.
08:39
This is the device we're building now.
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Ito ang aparatong ginagawa naming ngayon.
08:41
It gets very expensive to do this research.
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Mahal ang inaabot upang gawin ang pagsasaliksik na ito.
08:43
It turns out you can't do fusion on a table top
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At lumilitaw na di mo magagawa ang fyusyon sa ibabaw ng mesa lamang.
08:45
despite all that cold fusion nonsense. Right?
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sa kabila ng kalokohang malamig na fyusyon. Tama?
08:48
You can't. You have to do it in a very big device.
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Di mo kaya. Kailangan gawin mo ito sa malaking aparato.
08:51
More than half the world's population is involved in building this device
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Mahigit kalahati ng populasyon sa mundo ang kasama sa paggawa ng aparato nito
08:54
in southern France, which is a nice place to put an experiment.
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sa timog ng Pransiya, ang mainam na lugar para gawin ang pagsasaliksik na ito.
08:57
Seven nations are involved in building this.
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Pitong bansa ang kasama sa paggawa nito.
09:01
It's going to cost us 10 billion. And we'll produce half a gigawatt of fusion power.
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Aabot ng 10 bilyong ang gastos. At gagawa kami ng kalahating gigawatt ng lakas fyusyon.
09:05
But that's not electricity yet.
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Pero hindi pa kuryente ito.
09:08
We have to get to this.
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Kailangan pa naming kunin ito.
09:10
We have to get to a power plant.
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Kailangan naming dalhin ito sa planta ng kuryente.
09:12
We have to start putting electricity on the grid
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Kailangang simulan naming ilagay ang kuryente sa kawad
09:14
in this very complex technology.
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dito sa di pangkarinawang teknolohiya.
09:16
And I'd really like it to happen a lot faster than it is.
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At gusto ko itong mangyari mas mabilis sa inaasahan.
09:19
But at the moment, all we can imagine is sometime in the 2030s.
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Pero sa ngayon, nakikita naming ito ay maaaring mangyari pa sa 2030.
09:24
I wish this were different. We really need it now.
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Sana mali ito. Dahil kailangan na natin ito ngayon.
09:26
We're going to have a problem with power
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Magkakaroon tayo ng problema sa kuryente
09:28
in the next five years in this country.
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sa susunod na limang taon.
09:30
So 2030 looks like an infinity away.
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Sa 2030 na pananaw ito ay napakalayo pa.
09:34
But we can't abandon it now; we have to push forward,
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Pero di dapat iwanan ito ngayon; kailangan nating isulong,
09:36
get fusion to happen.
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Gawin nating mangyari ang fyusyon.
09:38
I wish we had more money, I wish we had more resources.
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Sana marami tayong pera, sana marami tayong pagkukunan.
09:40
But this is what we're aiming at,
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Pero ito ang ating pinupuntirya,
09:42
sometime in the 2030s --
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Sa loob ng taong 2030-
09:44
real electric power from fusion. Thank you very much.
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Tunay na elektrisidad mula sa fusyon. Maraming salamat.
09:46
(Applause)
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(Palakpakan)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Steven Cowley - PhysicistSteven Cowley directs the UK's leading fusion research center. Soon he'll helm new experiments that may make cheap fusion energy real on a commercial scale.
Why you should listen
The promise of fusion seems to have inspired more science-fiction novels than it has real developments in renewable energy, but Steven Cowley has begun to upset that balance. As director of the Culham Fusion Science Center, he's collaborating with the UK Atomic Energy Authority and researchers on the France-based ITER fusion device on projects that may lead to cheap, nearly limitless carbon-free energy.
Fusion (the process by which lightweight atoms under pressure are fused to form heavier atoms, releasing energy) has long been the Holy Grail of renewable energy, but at the moment it only occurs in the cores of stars. Yet Cowley isn't too shy to proclaim that harnessing its power on an Earthly scale is now inevitable. At UCLA, he made observations on some of the most violent phenomena in the local universe -- solar flares, storms in the Earth's magnetosphere -- and now his research is coming directly into play as he plans devices that, theoretically, would contain 100-million-degree gas using powerful magnetic fields.
Steven Cowley | Speaker | TED.com