TEDGlobal 2009
Rachel Pike: The science behind a climate headline
Rachel Pike: Znanost iza naslova o klimi
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U 4 minute, atmosferska kemičarka Rachel Pike pruža uvid u ogroman znanstveni trud koji se nalazi iza hrabrih naslova o promjeni klime. Sa svojim timom - koji je jedan od tisuću sudionika - sudjelovala je u rizičnom letu iznad tropskih šuma u potrazi za podacima o najvažnijoj molekuli.
Rachel Pike - Atmospheric chemist
Rachel Pike studies climate change at the molecular level -- tracking how emissions from biofuel crops react with the air to shape weather trends globally. Full bio
Rachel Pike studies climate change at the molecular level -- tracking how emissions from biofuel crops react with the air to shape weather trends globally. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
I'd like to talk to you today about the scale
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Danas bih željela govoriti vam o skali
00:18
of the scientific effort that goes into making
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znanstvenog truda posvećenom stvaranju
00:20
the headlines you see in the paper.
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naslova koje vidite u novinama.
00:22
Headlines that look like this when they have to do with climate change,
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Naslovi o promjeni klime,
00:24
and headlines that look like this when they have to do with air quality or smog.
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koji izgledaju kao ovaj i naslovi o kvaliteti zraka i smogu, kao ovaj ovdje.
00:28
They are both two branches of the same field of atmospheric science.
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To su dvije branše istog polja - znanosti o atmosferi.
00:31
Recently the headlines looked like this when the Intergovernmental
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Nedavno su naslovi izgledali ovako kada je Internacionalni
00:33
Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC,
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odbor za ispitivanje promjene klime, ili "IPCC",
00:35
put out their report on the state of understanding of the atmospheric system.
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izbacio izvješće o stanju atmosferskog sustava.
00:39
That report was written by 620 scientists
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Izvješće je napisalo 620 znanstvenika
00:41
from 40 countries.
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iz 40 zemalja.
00:43
They wrote almost a thousand pages on the topic.
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Na tu temu napisali su skoro 1000 stranica.
00:45
And all of those pages were reviewed by another 400-plus
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A sve te stranice je pregledalo još preko 400
00:48
scientists and reviewers, from 113 countries.
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znanstvenika iz 113 zemalja.
00:51
It's a big community. It's such a big community, in fact,
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To je, zapravo, ogromna zajednica,
00:54
that our annual gathering is the largest scientific meeting in the world.
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naše godišnje okupljanje je najveće znanstveno okupljanje na svijetu.
00:57
Over 15,000 scientists go to San Francisco every year for that.
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Preko 15.000 znanstvenika ide u San Francisco svake godine zbog toga.
01:00
And every one of those scientists is in a research group,
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Svaki od tih znanstvenika je dio istraživačke grupe,
01:02
and every research group studies a wide variety of topics.
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a svaka istraživačka grupa ispituje raznovrsne teme.
01:05
For us at Cambridge, it's as varied as the El Niño oscillation,
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Za nas na Cambridgeu teme variraju kao i oscilacije El Ninoa,
01:08
which affects weather and climate,
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koji utječe na vremensku prognozu i klimu,
01:10
to the assimilation of satellite data,
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do asimilacija satelitskih podataka,
01:12
to emissions from crops that produce biofuels, which is what I happen to study.
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do ispušnih plinova iz proizvodnje bio-goriva, koji su ono što ja ispitujem.
01:15
And in each one of these research areas, of which there are even more,
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U svakom od ovih istraživačkih područja kojih je dosta,
01:18
there are PhD students, like me,
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ima doktoranata, kao što sam ja,
01:20
and we study incredibly narrow topics,
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i mi proučavamo nevjerojatno uske teme,
01:22
things as narrow as a few processes or a few molecules.
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toliko uske stvari da se nekad svode na nekoliko procesa ili nekoliko molekula.
01:24
And one of the molecules I study is called isoprene,
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Jedna od molekula koje ja ispitujem zove se isopren,
01:27
which is here. It's a small organic molecule. You've probably never heard of it.
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evo ga ovdje. To je mala organska molekula. Vjerojatno nikada niste čuli za nju.
01:31
The weight of a paper clip is approximately equal to
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Težina spajalice je vjerojatno jednaka
01:33
900 zeta-illion -- 10 to the 21st -- molecules of isoprene.
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900 zeta-ilijuna - 10 na 21 - molekula isoprena.
01:37
But despite its very small weight,
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Ali unatoč njegovoj tako maloj težini,
01:39
enough of it is emitted into the atmosphere
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dovoljno je emitiran u atmosferu
01:41
every year to equal the weight of all the people on the planet.
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svake godine, toliko da je ta količina jednaka težini svih ljudi na planeti.
01:44
It's a huge amount of stuff. It's equal to the weight of methane.
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To je ogromna količina. Jednaka je težini metana.
01:47
And because it's so much stuff, it's really important for the atmospheric system.
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I pošto ga ima toliko, veoma je važan za atmosferski sustav.
01:50
Because it's important to the atmospheric system,
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A pošto je važan za atmosferski sustav,
01:53
we go to all lengths to study this thing.
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mi se zaista trudimo to ispitati.
01:55
We blow it up and look at the pieces.
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Uvećamo ga i gledamo u dijelove.
01:57
This is the EUPHORE Smog Chamber in Spain.
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Ovo je "EUPHORE" komora za smog u Španjolskoj.
01:59
Atmospheric explosions, or full combustion,
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Atmosferske eksplozije, potpuno sagorijevanje,
02:01
takes about 15,000 times longer than what happens in your car.
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kome je potrebno 15.000 puta duže nego onome što se događa u vašem automobilu.
02:04
But still, we look at the pieces.
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Ali ipak, mi gledamo te dijelove.
02:06
We run enormous models on supercomputers;
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Koristimo ogromne modele na superračunalima;
02:08
this is what I happen to do.
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to je upravo ono što ja radim.
02:10
Our models have hundreds of thousands of grid boxes
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Naši modeli imaju stotine tisuća mrežnih kutija
02:12
calculating hundreds of variables each, on minute timescales.
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koje računaju tisuće varijabli odjednom, na minutnim vremenskim skalama.
02:15
And it takes weeks to perform our integrations.
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Potrebni su tjedni kako bismo izveli naše integracije.
02:17
And we perform dozens of integrations
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Izvodimo na desetke integracija
02:19
in order to understand what's happening.
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kako bismo razumjeli što se događa.
02:21
We also fly all over the world looking for this thing.
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Također letimo preko cijelog svijeta u potrazi za ovim elementom.
02:24
I recently joined a field campaign in Malaysia. There are others.
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Nedavno sam se pridružila kampanji u Maleziji u kojoj je još ljudi.
02:27
We found a global atmospheric watchtower there,
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Tamo smo usred tropske šume zasnovali toranj
02:29
in the middle of the rainforest, and hung hundreds of thousands
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za kontrolu globalne atmosfere, na koji smo okačili opremu vrijednu stotine tisuća
02:31
of dollars worth of scientific equipment
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dolara.
02:33
off this tower, to look for isoprene,
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Sa tom opremom tražimo isopren i
02:35
and of course, other things while we were there.
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usput naravno, ostale stvari.
02:37
This is the tower in the middle of the rainforest, from above.
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Ovo je toranj viđen odozgo usred tropske šume.
02:39
And this is the tower from below.
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A ovo je isti toranj viđen odozdo.
02:41
And on part of that field campaign we even brought an aircraft with us.
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Na taj smo dio kampanje sa nama donijeli i avion
02:44
And this plane, the model, BA146, which was run by FAAM,
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modela BA146, kojeg posjeduje britanska organizacija za mjerenje atmosfere.
02:47
normally flies 120 to 130 people.
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Njegov uobičajeni kapacitet je između 120 i 130 ljudi.
02:50
So maybe you took a similar aircraft to get here today.
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Možda ste i vi ovdje došli sličnim zrakoplovom.
02:53
But we didn't just fly it. We were flying at 100 meters above the top of the canopy
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Ali mi nismo samo letjeli, već smo letjeli 100 metara iznad krošnji drveća
02:56
to measure this molecule -- incredibly dangerous stuff.
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kako bismo izmjerili tu molekulu - jako opasna stvar.
02:59
We have to fly at a special incline in order to make the measurements.
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Zbog toga smo morali letjeti pod posebnim nagibom.
03:02
We hire military and test pilots to do the maneuvering.
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Unajmljujemo vojsku i test pilote da bi manevrirali avionom.
03:04
We have to get special flight clearance.
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Moramo dobiti i posebnu dozvolu za takav let.
03:06
And as you come around the banks in these valleys, the forces can get up to two Gs.
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I kada dođete do riječnih obala i dolina, ubrzanje može dostići i 2 G.
03:09
And the scientists have to be completely harnessed in
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Znanstvenici moraju biti potpuno vezani tijekom leta
03:11
in order to make measurements while they're on board.
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kako bi izvršili mjerenja.
03:13
So, as you can imagine,
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Kao što možete zamisliti,
03:15
the inside of this aircraft doesn't look like any plane you would take on vacation.
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unutrašnjost aviona ne izgleda kao običan avion kojim idete na odmor.
03:18
It's a flying laboratory that we took to make measurements in the region of this molecule.
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To je leteći laboratorij kojim mjerimo ovu molekulu u ovom području.
03:23
We do all of this to understand the chemistry of one molecule.
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Sve ovo radimo kako bismo razumjeli kemiju jedne molekule.
03:26
And when one student like me has some sort of inclination
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A kada student kao ja ima neku sklonost
03:28
or understanding about that molecule,
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ili razumijevanje o toj molekuli,
03:30
they write one scientific paper on the subject.
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on o tome piše znanstvene radove.
03:32
And out of that field campaign we'll probably get
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Iz ove terenske kampanje vjerojatno ćemo dobiti
03:34
a few dozen papers on a few dozen processes or molecules.
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nekoliko desetina radova o nekoliko desetina procesa ove molekule.
03:37
And as a body of knowledge builds up,
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I kako se korpus znanja povećava,
03:39
it will form one subsection, or one sub-subsection
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stvaraju se sekcije i podsekcije
03:42
of an assessment like the IPCC, although we have others.
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u okviru izvješća poput onog koji izdaje Međunarodni odbor za ispitivanje promjene klime, mada on nije jedini.
03:45
And each one of the 11 chapters of the IPCC
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Svaki od njihovih 11 poglavlja
03:48
has six to ten subsections.
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ima od 6 do 10 podsekcija.
03:50
So you can imagine the scale of the effort.
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Dakle, možete zamisliti veličinu ovog napora.
03:52
In each one of those assessments that we write,
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Za svako izvješće koje napišemo,
03:54
we always tag on a summary,
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sastavimo i njegov kratak pregled
03:56
and the summary is written for a non-scientific audience.
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koji napišemo na jeziku za široku publiku.
03:59
And we hand that summary to journalists and policy makers,
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Taj sažetak dajemo novinarima i urednicima
04:01
in order to make headlines like these.
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kako bismo dobili naslove poput ovih.
04:03
Thank you very much.
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Hvala vam puno.
04:05
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Rachel Pike - Atmospheric chemistRachel Pike studies climate change at the molecular level -- tracking how emissions from biofuel crops react with the air to shape weather trends globally.
Why you should listen
Rachel Pike knows the intricacies of climate research -- the laborious, exacting and subtle techniques behind findings that end up in IPCC reports and, later, news headlines.
As a Ph.D candidate at Cambridge, Pike's research on isoprene, a major biofuel crop emission, and other molecules has taken her soaring over rainforest canopies in multi-ton labs-on-wings, into the cooled-down sub-levels of supercomputer grids, and into massive experimental atmospheric chambers. Her exhaustive work represents a major step toward a complete picture of how human activity affects the global ecosystem.
Rachel Pike | Speaker | TED.com