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Michael Shellenberger: How fear of nuclear power is hurting the environment
Majkl Šelenberger (Michael Shellenberger): Kako strah od nuklearne energije škodi prirodi
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"Mi nismo u revoluciji čiste energije, mi smo u krizi čiste energije", kaže stručnjak za pitanja klimatskih promena, Majkl Šelenberger. Njegovo iznenađujuće rešenje: nuklearna energija. U ovom strastvenom govoru, on objašnjava zašto je vreme da se prevaziđe dugotrajni strah od tehnologije, i zašto on i drugi stručnjaci za zaštitu životne sredine veruju da je krajnje vreme da se prihvati nuklearna energija kao održiv i poželjan izvor čiste energije.
Michael Shellenberger - Climate policy expert
Michael Shellenberger is a global thinker on energy, technology and the environment. Full bio
Michael Shellenberger is a global thinker on energy, technology and the environment. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Have you heard the news?
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Da li ste čuli vesti?
00:14
We're in a clean energy revolution.
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Nalazimo se u revoluciji čiste energije?
00:17
And where I live in Berkeley, California,
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U Berkliju u Kaliforniji, gde živim,
00:19
it seems like every day I see a new roof
with new solar panels going up,
with new solar panels going up,
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čini se kao da svakog dana
vidim da se pojavljuje
vidim da se pojavljuje
novi krov sa solarnim pločama,
00:23
electric car in the driveway.
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električni auto na prilazu kući.
00:25
Germany sometimes gets
half its power from solar,
half its power from solar,
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Nemačka ponekad dobija
pola svoje energije od sunca,
pola svoje energije od sunca,
00:29
and India is now committed
to building 10 times more solar
to building 10 times more solar
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a Indija je trenutno posvećena građenju
10 puta više solarnih postrojenja
10 puta više solarnih postrojenja
nego ih mi imamo u Kaliforniji,
00:33
than we have in California,
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00:34
by the year 2022.
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do 2022.
00:36
Even nuclear seems to be
making a comeback.
making a comeback.
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Čini se da se čak
i nuklearna energija vraća.
i nuklearna energija vraća.
00:39
Bill Gates is in China
working with engineers,
working with engineers,
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Bil Gejts u Kini radi sa inženjerima,
00:42
there's 40 different companies
that are working together
that are working together
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40 različitih kompanija koje rade zajedno
00:45
to try to race to build the first
reactor that runs on waste,
reactor that runs on waste,
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u trci da naprave prvi reaktor
kojeg pokreće otpad,
kojeg pokreće otpad,
00:49
that can't melt down
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koji ne može da se istopi,
00:50
and is cheaper than coal.
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a koji je jeftiniji od uglja.
00:52
And so you might start to ask:
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Možda ćete pitati:
da li će ceo ovaj problem
sa globalnim zagrevanjem
sa globalnim zagrevanjem
00:55
Is this whole global warming problem
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00:57
going to be a lot easier to solve
than anybody imagined?
than anybody imagined?
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biti mnogo lakše rešiv
nego što su svi mislili?
nego što su svi mislili?
01:00
That was the question we wanted to know,
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To smo želeli da saznamo,
01:02
so my colleagues and I decided
to take a deep dive into the data.
to take a deep dive into the data.
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pa smo moje kolege i ja odlučili
da zaronimo u podatke.
da zaronimo u podatke.
01:05
We were a little skeptical of some parts
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Bili smo malo skeptični kod nekih delova
01:07
of the clean energy revolution story,
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revolucije čiste energije,
01:09
but what we found really surprised us.
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ali ono što smo otkrili
zaista nas je iznenadilo.
zaista nas je iznenadilo.
01:12
The first thing is that clean
energy has been increasing.
energy has been increasing.
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Prva stvar je da se povećava
količina čiste energije.
količina čiste energije.
01:16
This is electricity from clean energy
sources over the last 20 years.
sources over the last 20 years.
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Ovo je električna energija iz izvora
čiste energije tokom proteklih 20 godina.
čiste energije tokom proteklih 20 godina.
01:21
But when you look at
the percentage of global electricity
the percentage of global electricity
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Ali kada pogledate procente
globalne električne energije
globalne električne energije
01:24
from clean energy sources,
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iz izvora čiste energije,
01:26
it's actually been in decline
from 36 percent to 31 percent.
from 36 percent to 31 percent.
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to je zapravo opalo sa 36% na 31%.
01:30
And if you care about climate change,
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A ukoliko vam je stalo
do klimatskih promena,
do klimatskih promena,
01:32
you've got to go in the opposite direction
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morate ići u suprotnom pravcu
01:35
to 100 percent of our electricity
from clean energy sources,
from clean energy sources,
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tako da 100% naše električne energije
ide iz čistih izvora energije,
ide iz čistih izvora energije,
01:38
as quickly as possible.
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što je brže moguće.
01:40
Now, you might wonder,
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Sada se možda pitate:
01:41
"Come on, how much could five percentage
points of global electricity be?"
points of global electricity be?"
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"Hajde, koliko može da bude pet procenata
svetske električne energije?"
svetske električne energije?"
01:45
Well, it turns out to be quite a bit.
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Ispostavlja se da je to mnogo.
01:47
It's the equivalent of 60 nuclear plants
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To je jednako 60 nuklearnih elektrana
01:50
the size of Diablo Canyon,
California's last nuclear plant,
California's last nuclear plant,
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veličine Kanjona Diablo, poslednje
nuklearne elektrane u Kaliforniji,
nuklearne elektrane u Kaliforniji,
01:53
or 900 solar farms the size of Topaz,
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ili 900 solarnih farmi veličine Topaza,
01:57
which is one of the biggest
solar farms in the world,
solar farms in the world,
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koja je jedna od najvećih
solarnih farmi na svetu
solarnih farmi na svetu
02:00
and certainly our biggest in California.
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i svakako najveća u Kaliforniji.
02:03
A big part of this is simply
that fossil fuels are increasing
that fossil fuels are increasing
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Veliki deo ovoga je prosto činjenica
da se fosilna goriva šire
da se fosilna goriva šire
02:06
faster than clean energy.
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brže od čiste energije.
02:08
And that's understandable.
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I to je razumljivo.
02:09
There's just a lot of poor countries
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Prosto je mnogo siromašnih zemalja
02:11
that are still using wood
and dung and charcoal
and dung and charcoal
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koje još uvek koriste drvo
i balegu i ugalj
i balegu i ugalj
02:13
as their main source of energy,
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kao glavni izvor energije
i njima su potrebna moderna goriva.
02:15
and they need modern fuels.
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02:16
But there's something else going on,
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Ali dešava se još nešto,
02:18
which is that one of those clean energy
sources in particular
sources in particular
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a to je da je jedan od ovih izvora
čiste energije naročito
čiste energije naročito
02:22
has actually been on the decline
in absolute terms,
in absolute terms,
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u opadanju u apsolutnom smislu,
02:26
not just relatively.
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ne samo relativno.
02:27
And that's nuclear.
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A to je nuklearna energija.
02:28
You can see its generation
has declined seven percent
has declined seven percent
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Možete videti da je njeno stvaranje
opalo za sedam procenata
opalo za sedam procenata
02:32
over the last 10 years.
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tokom proteklih 10 godina.
02:34
Now, solar and wind have been
making huge strides,
making huge strides,
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Solarna energija i energija vetra
napravile su značajne pomake,
napravile su značajne pomake,
02:37
so you hear a lot of talk
about how it doesn't really matter,
about how it doesn't really matter,
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tako da se čuje dosta
o tome kako to zaista nije bitno,
o tome kako to zaista nije bitno,
02:40
because solar and wind
is going to make up the difference.
is going to make up the difference.
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jer će solarna i energija vetra
nadoknaditi razliku.
nadoknaditi razliku.
Ali iz podataka se zaključuje
nešto drugačije.
nešto drugačije.
02:42
But the data says something different.
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02:44
When you combine all the electricity
from solar and wind,
from solar and wind,
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Kada se kombinuje sva električna energija
od solarne energije i energije vetra,
od solarne energije i energije vetra,
02:47
you see it actually barely makes up
half of the decline from nuclear.
half of the decline from nuclear.
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videćete da ona zapravo nadoknađuje
jedva pola opadanja od nuklearne energije.
jedva pola opadanja od nuklearne energije.
02:53
Let's take a closer look
in the United States.
in the United States.
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Pogledajmo SAD bliže.
02:56
Over the last couple of years --
really 2013, 2014 --
really 2013, 2014 --
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Tokom proteklih nekoliko godina -
zapravo 2013, 2014 -
zapravo 2013, 2014 -
02:59
we prematurely retired
four nuclear power plants.
four nuclear power plants.
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ishitreno smo zatvorili
četiri nuklearne elektrane.
četiri nuklearne elektrane.
03:03
They were almost entirely
replaced with fossil fuels,
replaced with fossil fuels,
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Skoro potpuno su zamenjene
fosilnim gorivima,
fosilnim gorivima,
03:06
and so the consequence
was that we wiped out
was that we wiped out
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a posledica je da smo izbrisali
03:09
almost as much clean energy
electricity that we get from solar.
electricity that we get from solar.
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skoro jednaku količinu eletkrične energije
koju dobijamo iz solarnih izvora.
koju dobijamo iz solarnih izvora.
03:14
And it's not unique to us.
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To nije jedinstveno za nas.
Ljudi misle za Kaliforniju da vodi u
čistoj energiji i klimatskim standardima,
čistoj energiji i klimatskim standardima,
03:18
People think of California
as a clean energy and climate leader,
as a clean energy and climate leader,
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03:21
but when we looked at the data,
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ali kada smo pogledali podatke,
03:23
what we found is that, in fact,
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zapravo smo otkrili
03:24
California reduced emissions more slowly
than the national average,
than the national average,
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da je Kalifornija smanjivala emisije
sporije od nacionalnog proseka,
sporije od nacionalnog proseka,
03:27
between 2000 and 2015.
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između 2000 i 2015.
03:30
What about Germany?
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Šta je sa Nemačkom?
03:31
They're doing a lot of clean energy.
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Oni imaju dosta čiste energije.
03:33
But when you look at the data,
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Ali kada pogledate podatke,
03:35
German emissions have actually
been going up since 2009,
been going up since 2009,
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emisije Nemačke zapravo rastu od 2009.
03:38
and there's really not anybody
who's going to tell you
who's going to tell you
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i nema skoro nikoga ko će vam reći
03:41
that they're going to meet
their climate commitments in 2020.
their climate commitments in 2020.
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da će oni ispuniti svoja obećanja,
koja se tiču klimatskih promena, do 2020.
koja se tiču klimatskih promena, do 2020.
03:45
The reason isn't hard to understand.
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Nije teško razumeti razlog.
03:46
Solar and wind provide power
about 10 to 20 percent of the time,
about 10 to 20 percent of the time,
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Solarna i energija vetra daju pogon
oko 10 do 20% vremena,
oko 10 do 20% vremena,
03:50
which means that when
the sun's not shining,
the sun's not shining,
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što znači da kada ne sija sunce
03:52
the wind's not blowing,
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i ne duva vetar,
03:53
you still need power for your hospitals,
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još uvek vam je potrebna
energija za bolnice,
energija za bolnice,
03:55
your homes, your cities, your factories.
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domaćinstva, gradove, fabrike.
03:58
And while batteries have made
some really cool improvements lately,
some really cool improvements lately,
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I iako su akumulatori napredovali
poprilično u poslednje vreme,
poprilično u poslednje vreme,
04:02
the truth is, they're just never
going to be as efficient
going to be as efficient
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zapravo nikada neće biti
jednako efikasni
jednako efikasni
04:05
as the electrical grid.
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kao električna mreža.
04:06
Every time you put electricity
into a battery and take it out,
into a battery and take it out,
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Svaki put kada stavite električnu energiju
u akumulator i izvučete je,
u akumulator i izvučete je,
04:09
you lose about 20 to 40
percent of the power.
percent of the power.
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izgubite oko 20 do 40% snage.
Zato, kada u Kaliforniji
04:13
That's why when, in California,
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pokušavamo da se nosimo sa svom
solarnom energijom koju smo doneli -
solarnom energijom koju smo doneli -
04:16
we try to deal with all the solar
we've brought online --
we've brought online --
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04:18
we now get about 10 percent
of electricity from solar --
of electricity from solar --
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sada dobijamo oko 10% električne energjie
iz solarnih izvora -
iz solarnih izvora -
04:21
when the sun goes down,
and people come home from work
and people come home from work
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kada sunce zađe,
i ljudi se vrate kućama s posla
i ljudi se vrate kućama s posla
04:24
and turn on their air conditioners
and their TV sets,
and their TV sets,
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i uključe svoje klime i TV-ove
04:26
and every other appliance in the house,
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i svaki drugi aparat u kući,
04:28
we need a lot of natural gas backup.
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potrebno nam je mnogo rezervi
u vidu prirodnog gasa.
u vidu prirodnog gasa.
04:31
So what we've been doing
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Mi smo zapravo stavljali
04:32
is stuffing a lot of natural gas
into the side of a mountain.
into the side of a mountain.
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dosta prirodnog gasa u padine planine.
04:35
And that worked pretty well for a while,
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To je funkcionisalo dobro jedno vreme,
04:37
but then late last year,
it sprung a leak.
it sprung a leak.
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ali krajem prošle godine,
došlo je do curenja.
došlo je do curenja.
04:40
This is Aliso Canyon.
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Ovo je Kanjon Aliso.
04:42
So much methane gas was released,
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Iscurelo je toliko metana
04:45
it was the equivalent of putting
half a million cars on the road.
half a million cars on the road.
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da je to bilo jednako stavljanju
pola miliona automobila na puteve.
pola miliona automobila na puteve.
04:49
It basically blew through all
of our climate commitments for the year.
of our climate commitments for the year.
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Prešli smo sva ograničenja
koja se tiču klimatskih promena za godinu.
koja se tiču klimatskih promena za godinu.
04:53
Well, what about India?
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Šta je sa Indijom?
04:55
Sometimes you have to go places
to really get the right data,
to really get the right data,
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Ponekad zaista morate da putujete
da biste dobili prave podatke,
da biste dobili prave podatke,
tako da smo otputovali
u Indiju pre par meseci.
u Indiju pre par meseci.
04:58
so we traveled to India a few months ago.
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05:00
We met with all the top officials --
solar, nuclear, the rest --
solar, nuclear, the rest --
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Upoznali smo sve bitne zvaničnike -
za solarnu, nuklearnu i druge energije -
za solarnu, nuklearnu i druge energije -
05:03
and what they told us is,
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i rekli su nam:
05:05
"We're actually having
more serious problems
more serious problems
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"Zapravo imamo ozbiljnije probleme
05:07
than both Germany and California.
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od Nemačke i Kalifornije.
05:08
We don't have backup;
we don't have all the natural gas.
we don't have all the natural gas.
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Nemamo rezerve;
nemamo sav taj prirodni gas.
nemamo sav taj prirodni gas.
05:12
And that's just the start of it.
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A to je samo početak.
05:14
Say we want to get
to 100 gigawatts by 2022.
to 100 gigawatts by 2022.
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Recimo da želimo da dođemo
do 100 gigavata do 2022.
do 100 gigavata do 2022.
05:17
But last year we did just five,
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Ali prošle godine smo imali samo pet
05:19
and the year before that, we did five."
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a godine pre toga, imali smo pet."
05:21
So, let's just take
a closer look at nuclear.
a closer look at nuclear.
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Hajde da bliže pogledamo
nuklearnu energiju.
nuklearnu energiju.
05:24
The United Nations Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change
Panel on Climate Change
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Međuvladin panel za klimatske promene
Ujedinjenih nacija
Ujedinjenih nacija
05:28
has looked at the carbon content
of all these different fuels,
of all these different fuels,
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pregledao je sadržaj ugljenika
svih ovih različitih goriva
svih ovih različitih goriva
05:31
and nuclear comes out really low --
it's actually lower even than solar.
it's actually lower even than solar.
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i nuklearna energija ima
jako niske vrednosti - niže od solarne.
jako niske vrednosti - niže od solarne.
05:34
And nuclear obviously
provides a lot of power --
provides a lot of power --
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Jasno je da nuklearna energija
daje mnogo pogonske energije -
daje mnogo pogonske energije -
05:38
24 hours a day, seven days a week.
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24 časa dnevno, sedam dana nedeljno.
05:41
During a year, a single plant can provide
power 92 percent of the time.
power 92 percent of the time.
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Tokom jedne godine, jedna elektrana
može davati energiju 92% vremena.
može davati energiju 92% vremena.
05:45
What's interesting is that
when you look at countries
when you look at countries
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Zanimljivo je to da kada pogledate zemlje
05:48
that have deployed different
kinds of clean energies,
kinds of clean energies,
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koje su koristile razne vrste
čistih energija,
čistih energija,
postoji samo nekoliko njih
koje su to radile
koje su to radile
05:50
there's only a few that have done so
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05:52
at a pace consistent with dealing
with the climate crisis.
with the climate crisis.
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tempom koji je bio jednak
nošenju sa krizom klimatskih promena.
nošenju sa krizom klimatskih promena.
05:55
So nuclear seems like
a pretty good option,
a pretty good option,
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Nuklearna energija se čini
prilično dobrim rešenjem,
prilično dobrim rešenjem,
05:57
but there's this big problem with it,
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ali postoji velik problem
05:59
which all of you, I'm sure, are aware of,
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a siguran sam da ste ga svi svesni,
06:01
which is that people really don't like it.
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a to je da je ljudi zaista ne vole.
06:04
There was a study, a survey done
of people around the world,
of people around the world,
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Rađeno je istraživanje
sa ljudima širom sveta,
sa ljudima širom sveta,
06:07
not just in the United States or Europe,
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ne samo u SAD ili Evropi,
06:10
about a year and a half ago.
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preko oko godinu i po dana.
06:11
And what they found
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359728
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Otkrili su to
06:13
is that nuclear is actually one
of the least popular forms of energy.
of the least popular forms of energy.
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3792
da je nuklearna energija zapravo jedan
od najnepopularnijih oblika energije.
od najnepopularnijih oblika energije.
06:16
Even oil is more popular than nuclear.
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364902
2430
Čak je i nafta popularnija
od nuklearne energije.
od nuklearne energije.
06:19
And while nuclear kind of
edges out coal, the thing is,
edges out coal, the thing is,
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367356
3166
Iako je nuklearna pomalo
bolja od uglja, stvar je u tome
bolja od uglja, stvar je u tome
06:22
people don't really fear coal
in the same way they fear nuclear,
in the same way they fear nuclear,
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3817
da se ljudi zaista ne boje uglja
na isti način
na isti način
na koji se boje nuklearne energije,
što je zaista podsvesna stvar.
što je zaista podsvesna stvar.
06:26
which really operates on our unconscious.
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2417
06:28
So what is it that we fear?
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376828
1635
Čega se onda bojimo?
06:30
There's really three things.
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1550
Postoje tri stvari.
06:32
There's the safety
of the plants themselves --
of the plants themselves --
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2240
Bezbednost samih elektrana -
06:34
the fears that they're going
to melt down and cause damage;
to melt down and cause damage;
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2805
strah da će se istopiti i napraviti štetu;
06:37
there's the waste from them;
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385154
1345
otpad iz elektrana;
06:38
and there's the association with weapons.
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2507
i asocijacija na oružje.
06:41
And I think, understandably,
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Mislim da je razumljivo
06:43
engineers look at those concerns
and look for technological fixes.
and look for technological fixes.
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da inženjeri gledaju na te probleme
i traže tehnološka rešenja.
i traže tehnološka rešenja.
06:47
That's why Bill Gates is in China
developing advanced reactors.
developing advanced reactors.
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Zbog toga Bil Gejts u Kini
razvija napredne reaktore.
razvija napredne reaktore.
06:50
That's why 40 different entrepreneurs
are working on this problem.
are working on this problem.
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Zato 40 različitih preduzetnika
radi na ovom problemu.
radi na ovom problemu.
06:53
And I, myself, have been
very excited about it.
very excited about it.
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401243
2231
I ja sam lično veoma uzbuđen zbog ovoga.
Uradili smo izveštaj "Kako napraviti
nuklearnu energiju jeftinom".
nuklearnu energiju jeftinom".
06:55
We did a report:
"How to Make Nuclear Cheap."
"How to Make Nuclear Cheap."
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403498
2142
06:57
In particular, the thorium reactor
shows a lot of promise.
shows a lot of promise.
152
405664
2898
Torijumski reaktor je
naročito obećavajuće rešenje.
naročito obećavajuće rešenje.
07:00
So when the climate
scientist, James Hansen,
scientist, James Hansen,
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2104
Kada me je naučnik za klimatske promene,
Džejms Hansen,
Džejms Hansen,
07:02
asked if I wanted to go to China with him
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410714
2269
upitao da li želim da idem u Kinu
07:05
and look at the Chinese
advanced nuclear program,
advanced nuclear program,
155
413007
2384
i pogledam kineski program
za nuklearnu energiju,
za nuklearnu energiju,
jedva sam dočekao priliku.
07:07
I jumped at the chance.
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1250
07:08
We were there with MIT
and UC Berkeley engineers.
and UC Berkeley engineers.
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416689
3191
Tamo smo bili sa inženjerima sa MIT-a
i Univerziteta u Berkliju.
i Univerziteta u Berkliju.
07:11
And I had in my mind
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419904
1676
U sebi sam mislio
da će Kinezi sa nuklearnom energijom
moći da urade
moći da urade
07:13
that the Chinese would be able
to do with nuclear
to do with nuclear
159
421604
2312
07:15
what they did with so many other things --
160
423940
2047
ono što su uradili sa mnogo toga drugog -
07:18
start to crank out small nuclear
reactors on assembly lines,
reactors on assembly lines,
161
426011
3929
početi da izbacuju
male nuklerarne reaktore
male nuklerarne reaktore
na proizvodnim trakama,
07:21
ship them up like iPhones or MacBooks
and send them around the world.
and send them around the world.
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429964
4388
pakovati ih kao ajfone ili mekbukove
i slati ih širom sveta.
i slati ih širom sveta.
07:26
I would get one at home in Berkeley.
163
434376
1983
Uzeo bih jedan sebi u Berkliju.
07:29
But what I found was somewhat different.
164
437120
1961
Ali otkrio sam nešto drugačije.
07:31
The presentations were all
very exciting and very promising;
very exciting and very promising;
165
439105
2904
Prezentacije su sve bile uzbudljive
i veoma obećavajuće;
i veoma obećavajuće;
07:34
they have multiple reactors
that they're working on.
that they're working on.
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2486
trenutno rade na više reaktora.
07:36
The time came for the thorium reactor,
and a bunch of us were excited.
and a bunch of us were excited.
167
444543
3305
Došlo je vreme za torijumski reaktor
i dosta nas se uzbudilo.
i dosta nas se uzbudilo.
07:39
They went through the whole presentation,
they got to the timeline,
they got to the timeline,
168
447872
3399
Prošli su kroz celu prezentaciju,
došli su do vremenske linije
došli su do vremenske linije
07:43
and they said,
169
451295
1257
i rekli su:
07:44
"We're going to have
a thorium molten salt reactor
a thorium molten salt reactor
170
452576
3518
"Imaćemo torijumski reaktor na topljenu so
07:48
ready for sale to the world
171
456118
2165
spreman za prodaju šriom sveta
07:50
by 2040."
172
458307
1562
do 2040."
07:52
And I was like, "What?"
173
460850
1613
A ja sam rekao: "Šta?"
07:54
(Laughter)
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462487
1015
(Smeh)
07:55
I looked at my colleagues and I was like,
175
463526
2008
Pogledao sam kolege i rekao:
07:57
"Excuse me --
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465558
1468
"Oprostite -
07:59
can you guys speed that up a little bit?
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2330
možete li vi momci da to malo ubrzate?
08:01
Because we're in a little bit
of a climate crisis right now.
of a climate crisis right now.
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469404
3074
Pošto smo pomalo
u klimatskoj krizi trenutno.
u klimatskoj krizi trenutno.
08:04
And your cities are really
polluted, by the way."
polluted, by the way."
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472502
2726
I da, vaši gradovi su zaista zagađeni."
08:07
And they responded back, they were like,
180
475252
2318
Odgovorili su sa:
08:09
"I'm not sure what you've heard
about our thorium program,
about our thorium program,
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477594
2780
"Nisam siguran šta ste čuli
o našem torijumskom programu,
o našem torijumskom programu,
08:12
but we don't have a third of our budget,
182
480398
1915
ali nemamo trećinu budžeta
08:14
and your department of energy
hasn't been particularly forthcoming
hasn't been particularly forthcoming
183
482337
3112
i vaše ministarstvo energetike
nije bilo baš predusretljivo
nije bilo baš predusretljivo
08:17
with all that data you guys
have on testing reactors."
have on testing reactors."
184
485473
3481
sa svim podacima koje imate
u vezi sa testiranjem reaktora."
u vezi sa testiranjem reaktora."
08:21
And I said, "Well, I've got an idea.
185
489382
2358
Onda sam rekao: "Pa, imam ideju.
08:23
You know how you've got 10 years
where you're demonstrating that reactor?
where you're demonstrating that reactor?
186
491764
3596
Znate kako imate 10 godina
za demonstraciju tog reaktora?
za demonstraciju tog reaktora?
08:27
Let's just skip that part,
187
495384
1572
Hajde da preskočimo to
08:28
and let's just go right
to commercializing it.
to commercializing it.
188
496980
2350
i da odmah krenemo na komercijalizaciju.
08:31
That will save money and time."
189
499354
1646
To će uštedeti novac i vreme."
08:33
And the engineer just
looked at me and said,
looked at me and said,
190
501379
2592
Inženjer me je samo pogledao i rekao:
08:35
"Let me ask you a question:
191
503995
1626
"Da vas pitam nešto:
08:37
Would you buy a car that had never
been demonstrated before?"
been demonstrated before?"
192
505645
3518
Da li biste kupili automobil
koji nikad pre toga nije bio isproban?"
koji nikad pre toga nije bio isproban?"
08:41
So what about the other reactors?
193
509913
1597
Šta onda sa drugim reaktorima?
08:43
There's a reactor that's coming online
now, they're starting to sell it.
now, they're starting to sell it.
194
511534
3452
Imaju reaktor koji je sada na internetu,
počinju da ga prodaju.
počinju da ga prodaju.
08:47
It's a high-temperature gas reactor.
195
515010
1786
To je reaktor na gas koji radi
na visokim temperaturama.
na visokim temperaturama.
08:48
It can't melt down.
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516820
1263
Ne može da se istopi.
08:50
But it's really big and bulky,
that's part of the safety,
that's part of the safety,
197
518845
2735
Ali je veoma velik i nezgrapan,
to je deo bezbednosti
to je deo bezbednosti
08:53
and nobody thinks
it's going to ever get cheaper
it's going to ever get cheaper
198
521604
2288
i niko ne misli da će ikad biti jeftiniji
08:55
than the reactors that we have.
199
523916
1940
od reaktora koje imamo.
08:57
The ones that use waste as fuel
are really cool ideas, but the truth is,
are really cool ideas, but the truth is,
200
525880
4076
Oni koji koriste otpad kao gorivo
su zaista super kao ideje, ali je istina
su zaista super kao ideje, ali je istina
da još uvek zapravo ne znamo
kako da to izvedemo.
kako da to izvedemo.
09:01
we don't actually know how to do that yet.
201
529980
2048
09:04
There's some risk that you'll
actually make more waste,
actually make more waste,
202
532052
2595
Postoji rizik da ćete zapravo
napraviti više otpada
napraviti više otpada
09:06
and most people think
that if you're including
that if you're including
203
534671
2794
i većina ljudi misli da ako uključite
09:09
that waste part of the process,
204
537489
2082
taj deo procesa sa otpadom,
09:11
it's just going to make the whole
machine a lot more expensive,
machine a lot more expensive,
205
539595
2967
da će sve to napraviti celu mašinu
mnogo skupljom,
mnogo skupljom,
09:14
it's just adding another complicated step.
206
542586
2332
da se samo dodaje
još jedan komplikovan korak.
još jedan komplikovan korak.
09:17
The truth is,
207
545765
1294
Istina je da postoje
09:19
there's real questions about how much
of that we're going to do.
of that we're going to do.
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547695
3150
prava pitanja o tome koliko toga
ćemo zapravo uraditi.
ćemo zapravo uraditi.
09:22
I mean, we went to India and asked
about the nuclear program.
about the nuclear program.
209
550869
2886
Otišli smo u Indiju i pitali
za nuklearni program.
za nuklearni program.
09:25
The government said
before the Paris climate talks
before the Paris climate talks
210
553779
2398
Pre Pariskog klimatskog dovora,
iz vlade su rekli
iz vlade su rekli
09:28
that they were going to do something
like 30 new nuclear plants.
like 30 new nuclear plants.
211
556201
3056
da će uraditi nešto poput
30 novih nuklearnih elektrana.
30 novih nuklearnih elektrana.
09:31
But when we got there
and interviewed people
and interviewed people
212
559281
2071
Ali kada smo došli tamo i ispitali ljude
09:33
and even looked at the internal documents,
213
561376
2081
i čak pogledali unutrašnje dokumente,
09:35
they're now saying
they're going to do about five.
they're going to do about five.
214
563481
2452
oni sada kažu da će ih napraviti oko pet.
09:37
And in most of the world,
especially the rich world,
especially the rich world,
215
565957
2546
U većini sveta, naročito bogatog sveta,
09:40
they're not talking
about building new reactors.
about building new reactors.
216
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2286
ne pričaju o građenju novih reaktora.
09:42
We're actually talking
about taking reactors down
about taking reactors down
217
570837
2288
Mi zapravo pričamo o rušenju reaktora
09:45
before their lifetimes are over.
218
573149
1666
pre nego im istekne radni vek.
09:46
Germany's actually pressuring
its neighbors to do that.
its neighbors to do that.
219
574839
2788
Nemačka zapravo vrši pritisak
na svoje susede da urade to.
na svoje susede da urade to.
Spomenuo sam SAD -
mogli bismo da izgubimo
mogli bismo da izgubimo
09:49
I mentioned the United States --
220
577651
1807
09:51
we could lose half of our reactors
over the next 15 years,
over the next 15 years,
221
579482
4343
polovinu svojih reaktora
tokom narednih 15 godina,
tokom narednih 15 godina,
09:55
which would wipe out 40 percent
of the emissions reductions
of the emissions reductions
222
583849
2817
što bi zbrisalo oko 40% smanjenja emisija
koje treba da dobijemo
u okviru Plana za čistu energiju.
u okviru Plana za čistu energiju.
09:58
we're supposed to get
under the Clean Power Plan.
under the Clean Power Plan.
223
586690
2344
10:01
Of course, in Japan, they took
all their nuclear plants offline,
all their nuclear plants offline,
224
589058
3067
U Japanu su, naravno, onesposobili
sve svoje nuklearne elektrane,
sve svoje nuklearne elektrane,
10:04
replaced them with coal,
natural gas, oil burning,
natural gas, oil burning,
225
592149
2353
zamenili su ih ugljem, prirodnim gasom,
sagorevanjem nafte
sagorevanjem nafte
10:06
and they're only expected to bring
online about a third to two-thirds.
online about a third to two-thirds.
226
594526
3562
i očekuje se da će aktivirati
samo trećinu do dve trećine.
samo trećinu do dve trećine.
10:10
So when we went through the numbers,
227
598112
2545
Kada smo prošli kroz brojeve
10:12
and just added that up --
228
600681
1323
i dodali sve to -
10:14
how much nuclear do we see
China and India bringing online
China and India bringing online
229
602028
3121
koliko vidimo da će nuklearne energije
Kina i Indija aktivirati
Kina i Indija aktivirati
10:17
over the next 15 years,
230
605173
1962
tokom narednih 15 godina,
10:19
how much do we see at risk
of being taken offline --
of being taken offline --
231
607159
3556
koliko rizikujemo da se ugasi -
10:22
this was the most startling finding.
232
610739
2289
ovo je bilo najstrašnjije otkriće.
10:25
What we found is that
the world is actually at risk
the world is actually at risk
233
613052
3491
Otkrili smo da je svet
zapravo pod rizikom da izgubi
zapravo pod rizikom da izgubi
10:28
of losing four times more clean energy
than we lost over the last 10 years.
than we lost over the last 10 years.
234
616567
5464
četiri puta više čiste energije nego što
smo izgubili tokom proteklih 10 godina.
smo izgubili tokom proteklih 10 godina.
10:34
In other words: we're not
in a clean energy revolution;
in a clean energy revolution;
235
622055
3350
Drugim rečima, nismo
u revoluciji čiste energije,
u revoluciji čiste energije,
10:37
we're in a clean energy crisis.
236
625429
2110
nego u krizi čiste energije.
10:40
So it's understandable that engineers
would look for a technical fix
would look for a technical fix
237
628992
4172
Razumljivo je onda da će inženjeri
tražiti tehničko rešenje
tražiti tehničko rešenje
za strah koji ljudi imaju
od nuklearne energije.
od nuklearne energije.
10:45
to the fears that people have of nuclear.
238
633188
1954
10:47
But when you consider
that these are big challenges to do,
that these are big challenges to do,
239
635166
2776
Ali kada uzmete u obzir
da su ovo veliki izazovi,
da su ovo veliki izazovi,
10:49
that they're going to take
a long time to solve,
a long time to solve,
240
637966
2285
da će biti potrebno dosta vremena
da se oni reše,
da se oni reše,
10:52
there's this other issue, which is:
241
640275
1746
a postoji i drugi problem:
10:54
Are those technical fixes
really going to solve people's fears?
really going to solve people's fears?
242
642045
3307
da li će ta tehnička rešenja
zaista rešiti strah kod ljudi?
zaista rešiti strah kod ljudi?
10:57
Let's take safety.
243
645828
1558
Uzmimo u obzir bezbednost.
10:59
You know, despite what people think,
244
647410
2485
Znate, uprkos tome šta ljudi misle,
11:01
it's hard to figure out how
to make nuclear power much safer.
to make nuclear power much safer.
245
649919
3133
teško je otkriti kako napraviti
nuklearnu energiju mnogo bezbednijom.
nuklearnu energiju mnogo bezbednijom.
11:05
I mean, every medical
journal that looks at it --
journal that looks at it --
246
653076
2318
Svaki medicinski časopis
koji se toga dotakne -
koji se toga dotakne -
11:07
this is the most recent study
from the British journal, "Lancet,"
from the British journal, "Lancet,"
247
655418
3108
ovo je najskorije istraživanje
britanskog časopisa "Lanset",
britanskog časopisa "Lanset",
11:10
one of the most respected
journals in the world --
journals in the world --
248
658550
2453
jednog od najuvaženijih
časopisa na svetu -
časopisa na svetu -
nuklearna energija je najbezbedniji način
da se proizvodi pouzdana energija.
da se proizvodi pouzdana energija.
11:13
nuclear is the safest way
to make reliable power.
to make reliable power.
249
661027
2519
11:15
Everybody's scared of the accidents.
250
663570
1781
Svako se boji nesrećnih slučajeva.
11:17
So you go look at the accident data --
251
665375
2294
Pogledajte podatke o nesrećama -
11:19
Fukushima, Chernobyl --
252
667693
1495
Fukušima, Černobil -
11:21
the World Health Organization
finds the same thing:
finds the same thing:
253
669212
2703
Svetska zdravstvena organizacija
dolazi do istog zaključka -
dolazi do istog zaključka -
11:23
the vast majority of harm
is caused by people panicking,
is caused by people panicking,
254
671939
3975
najveći deo štete nastaje
zbog toga što ljudi paniče,
zbog toga što ljudi paniče,
11:27
and they're panicking
because they're afraid.
because they're afraid.
255
675938
2320
a paniče jer se plaše.
11:30
In other words,
256
678282
1225
Drugim rečima,
11:31
the harm that's caused
isn't actually caused by the machines
isn't actually caused by the machines
257
679531
3533
šteta koja nastaje
zapravo ne nastaje zbog mašina
zapravo ne nastaje zbog mašina
11:35
or the radiation.
258
683088
1381
ili radijacije.
11:36
It's caused by our fears.
259
684493
1729
Ona nastaje zbog naših strahova.
11:38
And what about the waste?
260
686573
1445
A šta je sa otpadom?
11:40
Everyone worries about the waste.
261
688042
1592
Svi brinu zbog otpada.
11:41
Well, the interesting
thing about the waste
thing about the waste
262
689658
2183
Kod otpada je zanimljivo to
11:43
is how little of it there is.
263
691865
1419
koliko malo ga ima.
11:45
This is just from one plant.
264
693308
1377
Ovo je samo iz jedne elektrane.
11:46
If you take all the nuclear waste
we've ever made in the United States,
we've ever made in the United States,
265
694709
3377
Ukoliko uzmete sav nuklearni otpad
koji smo ikad proizveli u SAD-u
koji smo ikad proizveli u SAD-u
i stavite ga na teren
za američki fudbal, složite ga,
za američki fudbal, složite ga,
11:50
put it on a football field, stacked it up,
266
698110
2199
11:52
it would only reach 20 feet high.
267
700333
2223
dostigao bi samo 6 metara visine.
11:54
And people say it's poisoning
people or doing something --
people or doing something --
268
702580
3274
A ljudi kažu da on truje ljude
ili radi nešto -
ili radi nešto -
11:57
it's not, it's just sitting
there, it's just being monitored.
there, it's just being monitored.
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to se ne dešava, on samo stoji tu
i neko ga posmatra.
i neko ga posmatra.
12:00
There's not very much of it.
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Nema ga mnogo.
12:02
By contrast, the waste that we don't
control from energy production --
control from energy production --
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Nasuprot tome, otpad koji ne kontrolišemo
iz proizvodnje energije -
iz proizvodnje energije -
12:06
we call it "pollution," and it kills
seven million people a year,
seven million people a year,
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nazivamo ga "zagađenjem"
i on ubija sedam miliona ljudi godišnje
i on ubija sedam miliona ljudi godišnje
12:09
and it's threatening very serious
levels of global warming.
levels of global warming.
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i on predstavlja ozbiljnu pretnju
za globalno zagrevanje.
za globalno zagrevanje.
12:12
And the truth is that even if we get
good at using that waste as fuel,
good at using that waste as fuel,
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Istina je da čak i kada bismo postali
dobri u korišćenju otpada kao goriva,
dobri u korišćenju otpada kao goriva,
12:16
there's always going to be
some fuel left over.
some fuel left over.
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uvek će ostati nešto goriva.
12:18
That means there's always going to be
people that think it's a big problem
people that think it's a big problem
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To znači da će uvek biti ljudi
koji će misliti da je to velik problem
koji će misliti da je to velik problem
12:22
for reasons that maybe don't have
as much to do with the actual waste
as much to do with the actual waste
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iz razloga koji se možda ne tiču toliko
samog otpada
samog otpada
12:25
as we think.
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koliko mislimo.
12:26
Well, what about the weapons?
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A šta je sa oružjem?
12:29
Maybe the most surprising thing
is that we can't find any examples
is that we can't find any examples
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Možda najviše iznenađuje to
što ne možemo naći nikakve primere
što ne možemo naći nikakve primere
12:32
of countries that have nuclear power
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zemalja koje imaju nuklearnu energiju
12:34
and then, "Oh!" decide to go get a weapon.
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i onda odjednom odluče da nabave oružje.
12:36
In fact, it works the opposite.
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Zapravo funkcioniše potpuno obrnuto.
12:38
What we find is the only way we know
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Otkrili smo da je jedini način koji znamo
12:40
how to get rid large numbers
of nuclear weapons
of nuclear weapons
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da se rešimo velike količine
nuklearnog oružja
nuklearnog oružja
12:43
is by using the plutonium in the warheads
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taj da koristimo
plutonijum iz bojevih glava
plutonijum iz bojevih glava
12:46
as fuel in our nuclear power plants.
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kao gorivo u našim nuklearnim elektranama.
12:48
And so, if you are wanting to get
the world rid of nuclear weapons,
the world rid of nuclear weapons,
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I tako, ako želite da se rešite
nuklearnog oružja u svetu,
nuklearnog oružja u svetu,
12:52
then we're going to need
a lot more nuclear power.
a lot more nuclear power.
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onda će nam biti potrebno
mnogo više nuklearne energije.
mnogo više nuklearne energije.
12:55
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
13:01
As I was leaving China,
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Dok sam napuštao Kinu,
13:02
the engineer that brought Bill Gates there
kind of pulled me aside,
kind of pulled me aside,
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inženjer koji je tamo doveo Bila Gejtsa
povukao me je na stranu
povukao me je na stranu
13:06
and he said, "You know, Michael,
I appreciate your interest
I appreciate your interest
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i rekao: "Znaš, Majkl,
cenim tvoje interesovanje
cenim tvoje interesovanje
13:08
in all the different nuclear
supply technologies,
supply technologies,
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za različite tehnologije dopremanja
nuklearne energije,
nuklearne energije,
13:11
but there's this more basic issue,
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ali postoji osnovniji problem,
a to je da prosto ne postoji
dovoljno globalne potražnje.
dovoljno globalne potražnje.
13:14
which is that there's just not
enough global demand.
enough global demand.
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13:17
I mean, we can crank out
these machines on assembly lines,
these machines on assembly lines,
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Možemo da napravimo ove mašine
na proizvodnim trakama,
na proizvodnim trakama,
znamo kako da stvari pravimo jeftino,
13:20
we do know how to make things cheap,
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13:21
but there's just not enough
people that want them."
people that want them."
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ali prosto ne postoji dovoljno ljudi
koji ih žele."
koji ih žele."
13:24
And so, let's do solar and wind
and efficiency and conservation.
and efficiency and conservation.
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Hajde onda da se bavimo solarnom
i energijom vetra i očuvanjem.
i energijom vetra i očuvanjem.
13:29
Let's accelerate the advanced
nuclear programs.
nuclear programs.
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Ubrzajmo napredne nuklearne programe.
13:31
I think we should triple the amount
of money we're spending on it.
of money we're spending on it.
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Mislim da treba da utrostručimo
količinu novca koji na to trošimo.
količinu novca koji na to trošimo.
13:35
But I just think the most important thing,
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Ali mislim da je najbitnija stvar,
13:37
if we're going to overcome
the climate crisis,
the climate crisis,
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ukoliko želimo da prevaziđemo
klimatsku krizu,
klimatsku krizu,
13:39
is to keep in mind that the cause
of the clean energy crisis
of the clean energy crisis
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je da imamo na umu da izvor
krize čiste energije
krize čiste energije
13:44
isn't from within our machines,
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ne potiče od mašina,
13:47
it's from within ourselves.
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već od nas samih.
13:49
Thank you very much.
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Mnogo vam hvala.
13:50
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Michael Shellenberger - Climate policy expertMichael Shellenberger is a global thinker on energy, technology and the environment.
Why you should listen
Michael Shellenberger is co-founder and Senior Fellow at the Breakthrough Institute, where he was president from 2003 to 2015, and a co-author of the Ecomodernist Manifesto.
Over the last decade, Shellenberger and his colleagues have constructed a new paradigm that views prosperity, cheap energy and nuclear power as the keys to environmental progress. A book he co-wrote (with Ted Nordhaus) in 2007, Break Through: From the Death of Environmentalism to the Politics of Possibility, was called by Wired magazine "the best thing to happen to environmentalism since Rachel Carson's Silent Spring," while Time magazine called him a "hero of the environment." In the 1990s, he helped protect the last significant groves of old-growth redwoods still in private hands and bring about labor improvements to Nike factories in Asia.
Michael Shellenberger | Speaker | TED.com