TEDSummit
Michael Shellenberger: How fear of nuclear power is hurting the environment
迈克尔・塞伦博格: 恐惧核能是怎样伤害环境的
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1,636,529 views
“我们并不是在清洁能源革命之中，我们正处在一个清洁能源危机中。”气候政策专家迈克尔・塞伦博格说。他令人惊讶的解决方式是：核能。在这个充满激情的演讲中，他表明了现在是时候解决长期对核能的恐惧了，他和其他环境科学家相信现在是时候把核能当成可用和重要的清洁能源了。
Michael Shellenberger - Climate policy expert
Michael Shellenberger is a global thinker on energy, technology and the environment. Full bio
Michael Shellenberger is a global thinker on energy, technology and the environment. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Have you heard the news?
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你们看新闻了吗？
00:14
We're in a clean energy revolution.
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我们正在进行
清洁能源革命。
清洁能源革命。
00:17
And where I live in Berkeley, California,
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我住在加利福尼亚州伯克利市，
00:19
it seems like every day I see a new roof
with new solar panels going up,
with new solar panels going up,
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几乎每天我都会看到新的
太阳能板被装在屋顶上，
太阳能板被装在屋顶上，
00:23
electric car in the driveway.
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电动汽车停在车道上。
00:25
Germany sometimes gets
half its power from solar,
half its power from solar,
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德国一半的电力
来自于太阳能，
来自于太阳能，
00:29
and India is now committed
to building 10 times more solar
to building 10 times more solar
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印度计划在2022年完成
00:33
than we have in California,
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的太阳能板数量，
00:34
by the year 2022.
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是加州的十倍。
00:36
Even nuclear seems to be
making a comeback.
making a comeback.
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甚至连核电
都重返舞台了。
都重返舞台了。
00:39
Bill Gates is in China
working with engineers,
working with engineers,
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比尔·盖茨正在中国
和工程师们合作，
和工程师们合作，
00:42
there's 40 different companies
that are working together
that are working together
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他们来自超过
40家不同的公司，
40家不同的公司，
00:45
to try to race to build the first
reactor that runs on waste,
reactor that runs on waste,
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互相竞争，尝试建造第一个
以废材为原料的反应堆，
以废材为原料的反应堆，
00:49
that can't melt down
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永不融化，
00:50
and is cheaper than coal.
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比烧煤还便宜。
00:52
And so you might start to ask:
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所以，你可能会问：
00:55
Is this whole global warming problem
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“全球变暖问题
00:57
going to be a lot easier to solve
than anybody imagined?
than anybody imagined?
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是不是比大家想象中
要更容易解决？”
要更容易解决？”
01:00
That was the question we wanted to know,
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这也是我们想知道的，
01:02
so my colleagues and I decided
to take a deep dive into the data.
to take a deep dive into the data.
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所以我和我的同事们
开始调查数据。
开始调查数据。
01:05
We were a little skeptical of some parts
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之前我们对能源革命
中的一部分故事
中的一部分故事
01:07
of the clean energy revolution story,
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有所怀疑，
01:09
but what we found really surprised us.
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但是最终的发现
却让我们大吃一惊。
却让我们大吃一惊。
01:12
The first thing is that clean
energy has been increasing.
energy has been increasing.
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首先，清洁能源的
使用率一直在升高。
使用率一直在升高。
01:16
This is electricity from clean energy
sources over the last 20 years.
sources over the last 20 years.
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这是过去20年间，
清洁能源的总发电量。
清洁能源的总发电量。
01:21
But when you look at
the percentage of global electricity
the percentage of global electricity
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但是当你看到
全球范围内
全球范围内
01:24
from clean energy sources,
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清洁能源总
发电量占比时，
发电量占比时，
01:26
it's actually been in decline
from 36 percent to 31 percent.
from 36 percent to 31 percent.
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事实上，这个比例
从36%下降到了31%。
从36%下降到了31%。
01:30
And if you care about climate change,
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如果你在意气候变化，
01:32
you've got to go in the opposite direction
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你一定要尽快做出改变，
01:35
to 100 percent of our electricity
from clean energy sources,
from clean energy sources,
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使用纯清洁能源电力
01:38
as quickly as possible.
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越快越好。
01:40
Now, you might wonder,
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现在，你可能会问，
01:41
"Come on, how much could five percentage
points of global electricity be?"
points of global electricity be?"
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“拜托，全球5%的
电力能有多少？”
电力能有多少？”
01:45
Well, it turns out to be quite a bit.
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事实证明还蛮多的。
01:47
It's the equivalent of 60 nuclear plants
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这些电力等价于
60个核电站的产量，
60个核电站的产量，
01:50
the size of Diablo Canyon,
California's last nuclear plant,
California's last nuclear plant,
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每个都有加州核电站
“ 代阿布洛”的大小，
“ 代阿布洛”的大小，
01:53
or 900 solar farms the size of Topaz,
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或900个“托帕石”大小
的 太阳能发电厂，
的 太阳能发电厂，
01:57
which is one of the biggest
solar farms in the world,
solar farms in the world,
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“托帕石”是世界上最大
的 太阳能发电厂之一，
的 太阳能发电厂之一，
02:00
and certainly our biggest in California.
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当然也是加州最大的。
02:03
A big part of this is simply
that fossil fuels are increasing
that fossil fuels are increasing
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主要原因仅是
化石燃料
的使用率在逐年增加，
的使用率在逐年增加，
02:06
faster than clean energy.
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要比清洁能源的速度快。
02:08
And that's understandable.
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这是可以理解的。
02:09
There's just a lot of poor countries
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因为还有很多贫困国家，
02:11
that are still using wood
and dung and charcoal
and dung and charcoal
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它们还在把木材、粪便和木炭
02:13
as their main source of energy,
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作为
主要的能源材料，
02:15
and they need modern fuels.
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他们需要现代燃料。
02:16
But there's something else going on,
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但是，还有另一件
事情正在发生，
事情正在发生，
02:18
which is that one of those clean energy
sources in particular
sources in particular
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那就是有一种
特定的清洁能源
特定的清洁能源
02:22
has actually been on the decline
in absolute terms,
in absolute terms,
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的使用量的
绝对值正在下降，
绝对值正在下降，
02:26
not just relatively.
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而非仅仅是相对占比。
02:27
And that's nuclear.
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那就是核能。
02:28
You can see its generation
has declined seven percent
has declined seven percent
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你会发现，
在过去的10年里，
在过去的10年里，
02:32
over the last 10 years.
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核能的发电量
已经下降了7%。
已经下降了7%。
02:34
Now, solar and wind have been
making huge strides,
making huge strides,
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当前，太阳能和
风能正在飞速发展。
风能正在飞速发展。
02:37
so you hear a lot of talk
about how it doesn't really matter,
about how it doesn't really matter,
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所以你听到了很多言论，
表示核能下降不是问题，
表示核能下降不是问题，
02:40
because solar and wind
is going to make up the difference.
is going to make up the difference.
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因为太阳能和风能
会弥补这一缺失。
会弥补这一缺失。
02:42
But the data says something different.
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但数据却告诉我们
事实不是这样的。
事实不是这样的。
02:44
When you combine all the electricity
from solar and wind,
from solar and wind,
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当你把所有由太阳和风
创造的电力总量相加时，
创造的电力总量相加时，
02:47
you see it actually barely makes up
half of the decline from nuclear.
half of the decline from nuclear.
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你会发现这仅弥补了
核能发电缺失的一半。
核能发电缺失的一半。
02:53
Let's take a closer look
in the United States.
in the United States.
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让我们来看看美国，
02:56
Over the last couple of years --
really 2013, 2014 --
really 2013, 2014 --
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在过去的几年里，
尤其是2013，14年，
尤其是2013，14年，
02:59
we prematurely retired
four nuclear power plants.
four nuclear power plants.
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我们过早报废了
四个核电站。
四个核电站。
03:03
They were almost entirely
replaced with fossil fuels,
replaced with fossil fuels,
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它们的发电量几乎全部
被化石燃料发电取代了，
被化石燃料发电取代了，
03:06
and so the consequence
was that we wiped out
was that we wiped out
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所以结果就是
我们放弃了
我们放弃了
03:09
almost as much clean energy
electricity that we get from solar.
electricity that we get from solar.
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几乎和太阳能发电量
相当的清洁能源。
相当的清洁能源。
03:14
And it's not unique to us.
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而且，我们在
这件事上并不唯一。
这件事上并不唯一。
03:18
People think of California
as a clean energy and climate leader,
as a clean energy and climate leader,
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人们认为加州是使用清洁能源
和保护环境的先锋州，
和保护环境的先锋州，
03:21
but when we looked at the data,
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但是当我们查看数据，
03:23
what we found is that, in fact,
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我们发现，事实上，
03:24
California reduced emissions more slowly
than the national average,
than the national average,
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在2000到2015年间，
03:27
between 2000 and 2015.
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加州的减排速度
是低于全国速度的。
是低于全国速度的。
03:30
What about Germany?
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德国的情况又怎样呢？
03:31
They're doing a lot of clean energy.
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德国人在使用
很多清洁能源。
很多清洁能源。
03:33
But when you look at the data,
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但是当你查看数据时，
03:35
German emissions have actually
been going up since 2009,
been going up since 2009,
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会发现德国的排放量，
自09年 开始就持续升高，
自09年 开始就持续升高，
03:38
and there's really not anybody
who's going to tell you
who's going to tell you
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而且一定没有人会告诉你，
03:41
that they're going to meet
their climate commitments in 2020.
their climate commitments in 2020.
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他们计划在2020年
实现他们的气候承诺。
实现他们的气候承诺。
03:45
The reason isn't hard to understand.
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原因并不难理解。
03:46
Solar and wind provide power
about 10 to 20 percent of the time,
about 10 to 20 percent of the time,
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现在太阳能和风能提供了
大概10%到20%的电力，
大概10%到20%的电力，
03:50
which means that when
the sun's not shining,
the sun's not shining,
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这意味着当阴雨连绵，
03:52
the wind's not blowing,
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风平浪静的时候，
03:53
you still need power for your hospitals,
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你依旧需要给医院、家庭、
03:55
your homes, your cities, your factories.
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城市、工厂提供电力。
03:58
And while batteries have made
some really cool improvements lately,
some really cool improvements lately,
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虽然近来电池领域
有了些巨大发展，
有了些巨大发展，
04:02
the truth is, they're just never
going to be as efficient
going to be as efficient
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但真相是，
它们永远做不到
它们永远做不到
04:05
as the electrical grid.
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输电网那样的高效率。
04:06
Every time you put electricity
into a battery and take it out,
into a battery and take it out,
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每当你把电输入
电池并使用它，
电池并使用它，
04:09
you lose about 20 to 40
percent of the power.
percent of the power.
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你都会丢失20%
到40%的电量。
到40%的电量。
04:13
That's why when, in California,
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这就是为什么在加州，
04:16
we try to deal with all the solar
we've brought online --
we've brought online --
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我们正在尝试
太阳能的完全使用－
太阳能的完全使用－
04:18
we now get about 10 percent
of electricity from solar --
of electricity from solar --
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我们现在能够从太阳能
获得大约10%的电力－
获得大约10%的电力－
04:21
when the sun goes down,
and people come home from work
and people come home from work
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当太阳下山时，
人们下班回家，
人们下班回家，
04:24
and turn on their air conditioners
and their TV sets,
and their TV sets,
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打开空调和电视，
04:26
and every other appliance in the house,
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和其他家中电器时，
04:28
we need a lot of natural gas backup.
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我们仍需要大量
天然气储备。
天然气储备。
04:31
So what we've been doing
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所以我们一直以来做的，
04:32
is stuffing a lot of natural gas
into the side of a mountain.
into the side of a mountain.
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就是把天然气贮存在山脊里。
04:35
And that worked pretty well for a while,
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这个计划的确在
一段时间里成功了，
一段时间里成功了，
04:37
but then late last year,
it sprung a leak.
it sprung a leak.
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直至去年它发生了泄漏。
04:40
This is Aliso Canyon.
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这是阿灵所峡谷。
04:42
So much methane gas was released,
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大量的甲烷被释放，
04:45
it was the equivalent of putting
half a million cars on the road.
half a million cars on the road.
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相当于五十万辆
行驶汽车的排放量。
行驶汽车的排放量。
04:49
It basically blew through all
of our climate commitments for the year.
of our climate commitments for the year.
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就这样，它就轻松
打破了那年排放预算。
打破了那年排放预算。
04:53
Well, what about India?
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好吧，印度的情况又怎样呢？
04:55
Sometimes you have to go places
to really get the right data,
to really get the right data,
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有时，你是需要实地
收集真实数据的，
收集真实数据的，
04:58
so we traveled to India a few months ago.
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所以我们几个月前去了印度。
05:00
We met with all the top officials --
solar, nuclear, the rest --
solar, nuclear, the rest --
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我们会见了政府中
所有跟太阳能、
核能及其他能源有关的高级官员，
核能及其他能源有关的高级官员，
05:03
and what they told us is,
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他们告诉我：
05:05
"We're actually having
more serious problems
more serious problems
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“我们这儿的
问题，
05:07
than both Germany and California.
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比德国和加州更严峻。
05:08
We don't have backup;
we don't have all the natural gas.
we don't have all the natural gas.
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我们没有后备贮藏，
也没有那么多天然气。
也没有那么多天然气。
05:12
And that's just the start of it.
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然而这只是问题
的一小部分。
的一小部分。
05:14
Say we want to get
to 100 gigawatts by 2022.
to 100 gigawatts by 2022.
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举个例子，我们想在2022年，
产生一千亿瓦特的电量。
产生一千亿瓦特的电量。
05:17
But last year we did just five,
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但是去年我们却只
产生了五十亿瓦特，
产生了五十亿瓦特，
05:19
and the year before that, we did five."
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前年，我们也只
产生了五十亿瓦特。”
产生了五十亿瓦特。”
05:21
So, let's just take
a closer look at nuclear.
a closer look at nuclear.
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所以，让我们好好
研究一下核能。
研究一下核能。
05:24
The United Nations Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change
Panel on Climate Change
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联合国气候变化政府间协商组织
05:28
has looked at the carbon content
of all these different fuels,
of all these different fuels,
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调查了不同燃料的碳含量，
05:31
and nuclear comes out really low --
it's actually lower even than solar.
it's actually lower even than solar.
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结果表明：核能有比
太阳能还要低的碳含量。
太阳能还要低的碳含量。
05:34
And nuclear obviously
provides a lot of power --
provides a lot of power --
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而且核能明显
有更高电产量。
有更高电产量。
05:38
24 hours a day, seven days a week.
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一天24小时，一周7天。
05:41
During a year, a single plant can provide
power 92 percent of the time.
power 92 percent of the time.
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一年间，核电厂有
92%的时间都在工作。
92%的时间都在工作。
05:45
What's interesting is that
when you look at countries
when you look at countries
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有趣的是，当你关注那些
05:48
that have deployed different
kinds of clean energies,
kinds of clean energies,
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使用着各种
清洁能源的国家时，
清洁能源的国家时，
05:50
there's only a few that have done so
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只有一小部分跟得上
05:52
at a pace consistent with dealing
with the climate crisis.
with the climate crisis.
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解决能源危机的步伐。
05:55
So nuclear seems like
a pretty good option,
a pretty good option,
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核能发电看起来
是个很好的选择，
是个很好的选择，
05:57
but there's this big problem with it,
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但是潜藏一个巨大的问题，
05:59
which all of you, I'm sure, are aware of,
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我保证你们都知道，
06:01
which is that people really don't like it.
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2828
那就是人们并不欢迎核电。
06:04
There was a study, a survey done
of people around the world,
of people around the world,
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3191
在一年半以前，
06:07
not just in the United States or Europe,
132
355646
2503
有一项不仅仅
针对美国或欧洲，
针对美国或欧洲，
06:10
about a year and a half ago.
133
358173
1531
的世界范围民调。
06:11
And what they found
134
359728
1334
他们发现
06:13
is that nuclear is actually one
of the least popular forms of energy.
of the least popular forms of energy.
135
361086
3792
核能发电是最不受
欢迎的 发电方式之一。
欢迎的 发电方式之一。
06:16
Even oil is more popular than nuclear.
136
364902
2430
甚至石油都比
核能发电更受欢迎。
核能发电更受欢迎。
06:19
And while nuclear kind of
edges out coal, the thing is,
edges out coal, the thing is,
137
367356
3166
相比煤炭只是
更受欢迎一点点。
更受欢迎一点点。
06:22
people don't really fear coal
in the same way they fear nuclear,
in the same way they fear nuclear,
138
370546
3817
人们害怕核能和害怕
煤炭本质上是不同，
煤炭本质上是不同，
06:26
which really operates on our unconscious.
139
374387
2417
但正是这种害怕在
不知不觉中 影响我们。
不知不觉中 影响我们。
06:28
So what is it that we fear?
140
376828
1635
那我们究竟
是害怕什么呢？
是害怕什么呢？
06:30
There's really three things.
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1550
其实有三个原因，
06:32
There's the safety
of the plants themselves --
of the plants themselves --
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关于担心核电站的安全性：
06:34
the fears that they're going
to melt down and cause damage;
to melt down and cause damage;
143
382325
2805
害怕它会融化并伤害人体；
06:37
there's the waste from them;
144
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1345
害怕伴随而来的废料；
06:38
and there's the association with weapons.
145
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2507
以及核电和军事武器的联系。
06:41
And I think, understandably,
146
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1436
由此，我认为，
06:43
engineers look at those concerns
and look for technological fixes.
and look for technological fixes.
147
391022
4042
工程师已经了解这些疑虑
并在
尝试寻找技术上的解决方式。
尝试寻找技术上的解决方式。
06:47
That's why Bill Gates is in China
developing advanced reactors.
developing advanced reactors.
148
395088
2983
这就是为什么比尔盖茨在
中国 研发更先进的反应堆。
中国 研发更先进的反应堆。
06:50
That's why 40 different entrepreneurs
are working on this problem.
are working on this problem.
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398095
3124
这就是为什么40个企业家
在着手 研究这个问题。
在着手 研究这个问题。
06:53
And I, myself, have been
very excited about it.
very excited about it.
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401243
2231
对于我来说，这是
一件令人激动的事。
一件令人激动的事。
06:55
We did a report:
"How to Make Nuclear Cheap."
"How to Make Nuclear Cheap."
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403498
2142
我们做了一个报告
《如何降低核能价格》。
《如何降低核能价格》。
06:57
In particular, the thorium reactor
shows a lot of promise.
shows a lot of promise.
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405664
2898
具体来说，钍反应堆
带来了光明的前景。
带来了光明的前景。
07:00
So when the climate
scientist, James Hansen,
scientist, James Hansen,
153
408586
2104
所以当环境科学家
詹姆斯・汉森
詹姆斯・汉森
07:02
asked if I wanted to go to China with him
154
410714
2269
问我想不想跟他去中国，
07:05
and look at the Chinese
advanced nuclear program,
advanced nuclear program,
155
413007
2384
去看中国先进的
核能发电项目时。
核能发电项目时。
07:07
I jumped at the chance.
156
415415
1250
我就欣然接受了邀请，
07:08
We were there with MIT
and UC Berkeley engineers.
and UC Berkeley engineers.
157
416689
3191
我们和麻省理工，还有
加州伯克利的工程师一起。
加州伯克利的工程师一起。
07:11
And I had in my mind
158
419904
1676
我的想法是：
07:13
that the Chinese would be able
to do with nuclear
to do with nuclear
159
421604
2312
中国人能够改良核电，
07:15
what they did with so many other things --
160
423940
2047
就像他们改良
其他东西一样，
其他东西一样，
07:18
start to crank out small nuclear
reactors on assembly lines,
reactors on assembly lines,
161
426011
3929
先开始在流水线上
拆分小型核能反应堆，
拆分小型核能反应堆，
07:21
ship them up like iPhones or MacBooks
and send them around the world.
and send them around the world.
162
429964
4388
然后把它们像iPhone和Macbook
一样装上船并运到世界各地。
一样装上船并运到世界各地。
07:26
I would get one at home in Berkeley.
163
434376
1983
我可以在伯克利
的家里放置一台，
的家里放置一台，
07:29
But what I found was somewhat different.
164
437120
1961
但是事实上却是不同的。
07:31
The presentations were all
very exciting and very promising;
very exciting and very promising;
165
439105
2904
演说令人激动，
鼓舞人心，
鼓舞人心，
07:34
they have multiple reactors
that they're working on.
that they're working on.
166
442033
2486
他们正在研究
复合反应堆。
复合反应堆。
07:36
The time came for the thorium reactor,
and a bunch of us were excited.
and a bunch of us were excited.
167
444543
3305
当讲到钍反应堆的时候，
我们中很多人都十分激动。
我们中很多人都十分激动。
07:39
They went through the whole presentation,
they got to the timeline,
they got to the timeline,
168
447872
3399
演讲快结束的时候，
他们讲到了时间线。
他们讲到了时间线。
07:43
and they said,
169
451295
1257
他们说：
07:44
"We're going to have
a thorium molten salt reactor
a thorium molten salt reactor
170
452576
3518
"我们的钍盐熔融反应堆，
07:48
ready for sale to the world
171
456118
2165
将在2040年
07:50
by 2040."
172
458307
1562
准备好走向世界"。
07:52
And I was like, "What?"
173
460850
1613
我的反应是 “啥？”
07:54
(Laughter)
174
462487
1015
（笑声）
07:55
I looked at my colleagues and I was like,
175
463526
2008
我看向我的同事们，
07:57
"Excuse me --
176
465558
1468
“抱歉，
07:59
can you guys speed that up a little bit?
177
467050
2330
你们能加快一点速度吗？
08:01
Because we're in a little bit
of a climate crisis right now.
of a climate crisis right now.
178
469404
3074
因为我们现在好像
正面临着气候危机，
正面临着气候危机，
08:04
And your cities are really
polluted, by the way."
polluted, by the way."
179
472502
2726
而且，你们的城市污染
貌似也很严重啊。”
貌似也很严重啊。”
08:07
And they responded back, they were like,
180
475252
2318
然后，他们回答我，
类似说：
类似说：
08:09
"I'm not sure what you've heard
about our thorium program,
about our thorium program,
181
477594
2780
“我不知道你之前是否听说过
我们 钍反应堆的项目，
我们 钍反应堆的项目，
08:12
but we don't have a third of our budget,
182
480398
1915
但是我们缺少三分之一的经费，
08:14
and your department of energy
hasn't been particularly forthcoming
hasn't been particularly forthcoming
183
482337
3112
而且你们的能源局
似乎不是很愿意
似乎不是很愿意
08:17
with all that data you guys
have on testing reactors."
have on testing reactors."
184
485473
3481
把你们测试反应堆
的数据全部给我们。"
的数据全部给我们。"
08:21
And I said, "Well, I've got an idea.
185
489382
2358
我说：“好吧，
我有一个主意。”
我有一个主意。”
08:23
You know how you've got 10 years
where you're demonstrating that reactor?
where you're demonstrating that reactor?
186
491764
3596
你们不是有十年时间
用于展示反应堆吗？
用于展示反应堆吗？
08:27
Let's just skip that part,
187
495384
1572
让我们直接跳过那部分，
08:28
and let's just go right
to commercializing it.
to commercializing it.
188
496980
2350
然后我们直接市场化。
08:31
That will save money and time."
189
499354
1646
这样能够节约我们
的时间和金钱。
的时间和金钱。
08:33
And the engineer just
looked at me and said,
looked at me and said,
190
501379
2592
然后那个工程师
就看着我说道：
就看着我说道：
08:35
"Let me ask you a question:
191
503995
1626
“让我问你一个问题，
08:37
Would you buy a car that had never
been demonstrated before?"
been demonstrated before?"
192
505645
3518
你会在没有看过产品展示
的情况下买一辆车吗？”
的情况下买一辆车吗？”
08:41
So what about the other reactors?
193
509913
1597
换作反应堆呢？
08:43
There's a reactor that's coming online
now, they're starting to sell it.
now, they're starting to sell it.
194
511534
3452
有一款即将完成的反应堆，
现在，它即将开始售卖。
现在，它即将开始售卖。
08:47
It's a high-temperature gas reactor.
195
515010
1786
这是一个高温气体反应堆。
08:48
It can't melt down.
196
516820
1263
它不会融化。
08:50
But it's really big and bulky,
that's part of the safety,
that's part of the safety,
197
518845
2735
但是为了安全性考虑，
它的体积巨大且笨重。
它的体积巨大且笨重。
08:53
and nobody thinks
it's going to ever get cheaper
it's going to ever get cheaper
198
521604
2288
而且没有人认为它会变得
08:55
than the reactors that we have.
199
523916
1940
比其他反应堆更便宜。
08:57
The ones that use waste as fuel
are really cool ideas, but the truth is,
are really cool ideas, but the truth is,
200
525880
4076
那个把废物当燃料的反应堆
是 挺炫酷的，但真相是，
是 挺炫酷的，但真相是，
09:01
we don't actually know how to do that yet.
201
529980
2048
我们还不确定要怎样实现。
09:04
There's some risk that you'll
actually make more waste,
actually make more waste,
202
532052
2595
有风险还会产生更多的废料，
09:06
and most people think
that if you're including
that if you're including
203
534671
2794
大多数人认为，如果算上
09:09
that waste part of the process,
204
537489
2082
反应过程中的废物的话，
09:11
it's just going to make the whole
machine a lot more expensive,
machine a lot more expensive,
205
539595
2967
这台机器其实相当昂贵，
09:14
it's just adding another complicated step.
206
542586
2332
过程反而变得更加复杂。
09:17
The truth is,
207
545765
1294
事实上，
09:19
there's real questions about how much
of that we're going to do.
of that we're going to do.
208
547695
3150
真正的问题是我们应该
在 核能问题上走多远。
在 核能问题上走多远。
09:22
I mean, we went to India and asked
about the nuclear program.
about the nuclear program.
209
550869
2886
我的意思是，我们去了印度
并问了他们核电项目的相关问题。
并问了他们核电项目的相关问题。
09:25
The government said
before the Paris climate talks
before the Paris climate talks
210
553779
2398
政府说在巴黎气候会议之前，
09:28
that they were going to do something
like 30 new nuclear plants.
like 30 new nuclear plants.
211
556201
3056
他们打算建造
30个新的核电站。
30个新的核电站。
09:31
But when we got there
and interviewed people
and interviewed people
212
559281
2071
但是当我们到印度，
采访当地人，
采访当地人，
09:33
and even looked at the internal documents,
213
561376
2081
甚至查看了内部文件，
09:35
they're now saying
they're going to do about five.
they're going to do about five.
214
563481
2452
他们说现在只建造了5个。
09:37
And in most of the world,
especially the rich world,
especially the rich world,
215
565957
2546
而且世界上绝大部分，
特别是那些富裕国家，
特别是那些富裕国家，
09:40
they're not talking
about building new reactors.
about building new reactors.
216
568527
2286
他们没有建造新
核电站的想法，
核电站的想法，
09:42
We're actually talking
about taking reactors down
about taking reactors down
217
570837
2288
反而在谈论拆毁
09:45
before their lifetimes are over.
218
573149
1666
那些还未达到
使用年限的核电站。
使用年限的核电站。
09:46
Germany's actually pressuring
its neighbors to do that.
its neighbors to do that.
219
574839
2788
德国正在给邻国施压，
让他们拆毁核电站，
让他们拆毁核电站，
09:49
I mentioned the United States --
220
577651
1807
当我们谈到美国，
09:51
we could lose half of our reactors
over the next 15 years,
over the next 15 years,
221
579482
4343
我们可能在未来15年间
失去一半的核反应堆，
失去一半的核反应堆，
09:55
which would wipe out 40 percent
of the emissions reductions
of the emissions reductions
222
583849
2817
这可能增加40%的排放量
09:58
we're supposed to get
under the Clean Power Plan.
under the Clean Power Plan.
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586690
2344
那些本应由清洁能源计划
承担的减排量。
承担的减排量。
10:01
Of course, in Japan, they took
all their nuclear plants offline,
all their nuclear plants offline,
224
589058
3067
当然在日本，它们把
所有的 核电站都报废了，
所有的 核电站都报废了，
10:04
replaced them with coal,
natural gas, oil burning,
natural gas, oil burning,
225
592149
2353
并全部由煤炭，
天然气和石油代替，
天然气和石油代替，
10:06
and they're only expected to bring
online about a third to two-thirds.
online about a third to two-thirds.
226
594526
3562
而且他们只计划重新使用
其中的三分之一到三分之二，
其中的三分之一到三分之二，
10:10
So when we went through the numbers,
227
598112
2545
当我们查看
这些数据的时候，
这些数据的时候，
10:12
and just added that up --
228
600681
1323
把它们加起来，
10:14
how much nuclear do we see
China and India bringing online
China and India bringing online
229
602028
3121
未来15年内，
10:17
over the next 15 years,
230
605173
1962
中国和印度会建
多少核电站呢？
多少核电站呢？
10:19
how much do we see at risk
of being taken offline --
of being taken offline --
231
607159
3556
又有多少面临
被报废的风险呢？
被报废的风险呢？
10:22
this was the most startling finding.
232
610739
2289
答案令人震惊。
10:25
What we found is that
the world is actually at risk
the world is actually at risk
233
613052
3491
我们发现世界正面临着
10:28
of losing four times more clean energy
than we lost over the last 10 years.
than we lost over the last 10 years.
234
616567
5464
失去四倍于过去十年
清洁能源丧失量的危机。
清洁能源丧失量的危机。
10:34
In other words: we're not
in a clean energy revolution;
in a clean energy revolution;
235
622055
3350
换句话说，我们并不在
进行清洁能源革命，
进行清洁能源革命，
10:37
we're in a clean energy crisis.
236
625429
2110
我们正处在清洁能源危机中，
10:40
So it's understandable that engineers
would look for a technical fix
would look for a technical fix
237
628992
4172
所以考虑到人们对核能的恐惧，
10:45
to the fears that people have of nuclear.
238
633188
1954
工程师们
正在寻找技术
修复是完全可以理解的。
修复是完全可以理解的。
10:47
But when you consider
that these are big challenges to do,
that these are big challenges to do,
239
635166
2776
但当考虑到
这些巨大的挑战，
这些巨大的挑战，
10:49
that they're going to take
a long time to solve,
a long time to solve,
240
637966
2285
解决是需要
花费很长时间的。
花费很长时间的。
10:52
there's this other issue, which is:
241
640275
1746
另一个问题是：
10:54
Are those technical fixes
really going to solve people's fears?
really going to solve people's fears?
242
642045
3307
这些技术修复真的能够
解决人们对核能的恐惧吗？
解决人们对核能的恐惧吗？
10:57
Let's take safety.
243
645828
1558
拿安全问题来说吧。
10:59
You know, despite what people think,
244
647410
2485
尽管人们是这么想的，
11:01
it's hard to figure out how
to make nuclear power much safer.
to make nuclear power much safer.
245
649919
3133
但是真正让核能
听起来安全是很困难的。
听起来安全是很困难的。
11:05
I mean, every medical
journal that looks at it --
journal that looks at it --
246
653076
2318
我的意思是，看看那些
有关 核能的医药杂志，
有关 核能的医药杂志，
11:07
this is the most recent study
from the British journal, "Lancet,"
from the British journal, "Lancet,"
247
655418
3108
这是英国《柳叶刀》
杂志的最新研究，
杂志的最新研究，
11:10
one of the most respected
journals in the world --
journals in the world --
248
658550
2453
《柳叶刀》是世界上
最受认可 的杂志之一，
最受认可 的杂志之一，
11:13
nuclear is the safest way
to make reliable power.
to make reliable power.
249
661027
2519
核能是最安全的发电方式。
11:15
Everybody's scared of the accidents.
250
663570
1781
每个人都害怕事故。
11:17
So you go look at the accident data --
251
665375
2294
所以你去查看事故数据－
11:19
Fukushima, Chernobyl --
252
667693
1495
福岛和切尔诺贝利－
11:21
the World Health Organization
finds the same thing:
finds the same thing:
253
669212
2703
世界卫生组织在两次事故
中 总结出了同样的结论：
中 总结出了同样的结论：
11:23
the vast majority of harm
is caused by people panicking,
is caused by people panicking,
254
671939
3975
大部分的伤害是由
人民的恐慌造成的，
人民的恐慌造成的，
11:27
and they're panicking
because they're afraid.
because they're afraid.
255
675938
2320
然而他们的恐慌
来源于他们的恐惧。
来源于他们的恐惧。
11:30
In other words,
256
678282
1225
换句话说，
11:31
the harm that's caused
isn't actually caused by the machines
isn't actually caused by the machines
257
679531
3533
伤害并不是由机器
11:35
or the radiation.
258
683088
1381
或是辐射造成的，
11:36
It's caused by our fears.
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而是由我们的恐惧造成的。
11:38
And what about the waste?
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那来自核能的废物呢？
11:40
Everyone worries about the waste.
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每个人都在担心废料。
11:41
Well, the interesting
thing about the waste
thing about the waste
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但是，有趣的是，
11:43
is how little of it there is.
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产生的废物，
其实只有一点儿。
其实只有一点儿。
11:45
This is just from one plant.
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这就是由一个
核电站产生的废料。
核电站产生的废料。
11:46
If you take all the nuclear waste
we've ever made in the United States,
we've ever made in the United States,
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如果你把美国核电站
产生的 所有废物加起来，
产生的 所有废物加起来，
11:50
put it on a football field, stacked it up,
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放到一个橄榄球场地，
堆积起来，
堆积起来，
11:52
it would only reach 20 feet high.
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只有6.1米高。
11:54
And people say it's poisoning
people or doing something --
people or doing something --
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人们说废物会对人体
或其他事物产生伤害－
或其他事物产生伤害－
11:57
it's not, it's just sitting
there, it's just being monitored.
there, it's just being monitored.
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但它并不会，只是被堆积
在那里， 并有人监管着。
在那里， 并有人监管着。
12:00
There's not very much of it.
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而且量并不大。
12:02
By contrast, the waste that we don't
control from energy production --
control from energy production --
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相反，我们没有控制
的发电产生的废物，
的发电产生的废物，
12:06
we call it "pollution," and it kills
seven million people a year,
seven million people a year,
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我们称之为“污染”，
一年内七百万人死于此，
一年内七百万人死于此，
12:09
and it's threatening very serious
levels of global warming.
levels of global warming.
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而且它威胁着世界，
大大加重气候变暖。
大大加重气候变暖。
12:12
And the truth is that even if we get
good at using that waste as fuel,
good at using that waste as fuel,
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事实上，如果我们能够
很好地把废物当成燃料，
很好地把废物当成燃料，
12:16
there's always going to be
some fuel left over.
some fuel left over.
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世界上总会有剩余的燃料。
12:18
That means there's always going to be
people that think it's a big problem
people that think it's a big problem
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这就意味着总会有人
认为这是一个大问题，
认为这是一个大问题，
12:22
for reasons that maybe don't have
as much to do with the actual waste
as much to do with the actual waste
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因为我们可能没有能够
12:25
as we think.
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在预期之内
很好
的利用废物。
的利用废物。
12:26
Well, what about the weapons?
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好，那武器呢？
12:29
Maybe the most surprising thing
is that we can't find any examples
is that we can't find any examples
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可能最令人惊讶的
是 我们找不到任何例子，
是 我们找不到任何例子，
12:32
of countries that have nuclear power
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没有哪个拥有核能的国家，
12:34
and then, "Oh!" decide to go get a weapon.
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突然说，“哦”，然后
决定要制造一个武器。
决定要制造一个武器。
12:36
In fact, it works the opposite.
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事实正相反，
12:38
What we find is the only way we know
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我们发现，
唯一能使我们
唯一能使我们
12:40
how to get rid large numbers
of nuclear weapons
of nuclear weapons
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摆脱大量核武器的途径，
12:43
is by using the plutonium in the warheads
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就是把弹头中的钚，
12:46
as fuel in our nuclear power plants.
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当成反应堆中的燃料。
12:48
And so, if you are wanting to get
the world rid of nuclear weapons,
the world rid of nuclear weapons,
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因此，如果你想让
世界没有核武器，
世界没有核武器，
12:52
then we're going to need
a lot more nuclear power.
a lot more nuclear power.
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就要使用更多的核电。
12:55
(Applause)
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（掌声）
13:01
As I was leaving China,
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当我离开中国的时候，
13:02
the engineer that brought Bill Gates there
kind of pulled me aside,
kind of pulled me aside,
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那个请来比尔盖茨的
工程师曾把我拉到一边，
工程师曾把我拉到一边，
13:06
and he said, "You know, Michael,
I appreciate your interest
I appreciate your interest
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然后他说，“你知道吗，
迈克尔，我很欣赏
迈克尔，我很欣赏
13:08
in all the different nuclear
supply technologies,
supply technologies,
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你能对不同
核电技术感兴趣。
核电技术感兴趣。
13:11
but there's this more basic issue,
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但是有一个更基本的问题，
13:14
which is that there's just not
enough global demand.
enough global demand.
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世界并没有足够大的需求，
13:17
I mean, we can crank out
these machines on assembly lines,
these machines on assembly lines,
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我的意思是，我能在
流水线上 组装这些机器，
流水线上 组装这些机器，
13:20
we do know how to make things cheap,
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我们也知道怎样让它变便宜，
13:21
but there's just not enough
people that want them."
people that want them."
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但是没有人愿意购买它们。
13:24
And so, let's do solar and wind
and efficiency and conservation.
and efficiency and conservation.
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因此，我们还是使用太阳能
和风能发电，保证效率。
和风能发电，保证效率。
13:29
Let's accelerate the advanced
nuclear programs.
nuclear programs.
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我们需要加速先进的核项目。
13:31
I think we should triple the amount
of money we're spending on it.
of money we're spending on it.
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我认为我们应该将
对核项目的投资翻倍。
对核项目的投资翻倍。
13:35
But I just think the most important thing,
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但是我认为最重要的是，
13:37
if we're going to overcome
the climate crisis,
the climate crisis,
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如果想要解决气候危机，
13:39
is to keep in mind that the cause
of the clean energy crisis
of the clean energy crisis
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就必须记住清洁能源
危机产生的原因，
危机产生的原因，
13:44
isn't from within our machines,
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那并不是由机器产生的，
13:47
it's from within ourselves.
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而是由我们自己。
13:49
Thank you very much.
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非常感谢。
13:50
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Michael Shellenberger - Climate policy expertMichael Shellenberger is a global thinker on energy, technology and the environment.
Why you should listen
Michael Shellenberger is co-founder and Senior Fellow at the Breakthrough Institute, where he was president from 2003 to 2015, and a co-author of the Ecomodernist Manifesto.
Over the last decade, Shellenberger and his colleagues have constructed a new paradigm that views prosperity, cheap energy and nuclear power as the keys to environmental progress. A book he co-wrote (with Ted Nordhaus) in 2007, Break Through: From the Death of Environmentalism to the Politics of Possibility, was called by Wired magazine "the best thing to happen to environmentalism since Rachel Carson's Silent Spring," while Time magazine called him a "hero of the environment." In the 1990s, he helped protect the last significant groves of old-growth redwoods still in private hands and bring about labor improvements to Nike factories in Asia.
Michael Shellenberger | Speaker | TED.com