TEDSummit
Michael Shellenberger: How fear of nuclear power is hurting the environment
邁克爾·謝倫伯格: 恐核如何對環境造成傷害
Filmed:
Readability: 4
1,636,529 views
“我們不是處於潔淨能源革命，而在是潔淨能源危機中”，氣候政策專家邁克爾·謝倫伯格說，他有令人驚訝的解決方法：核能。在此次充滿激情的演講中，他說此時正是克服技術上對核能長期疑憂的好時機，以及為什麼他與其他環保人士認為早應該擁抱核能作為可行及理想的潔淨能源。
Michael Shellenberger - Climate policy expert
Michael Shellenberger is a global thinker on energy, technology and the environment. Full bio
Michael Shellenberger is a global thinker on energy, technology and the environment. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Have you heard the news?
0
825
1639
你聽說了嗎？
00:14
We're in a clean energy revolution.
1
2488
2950
我們處於潔淨能源革命之中。
00:17
And where I live in Berkeley, California,
2
5462
1990
在我居住的加州柏克萊，
00:19
it seems like every day I see a new roof
with new solar panels going up,
with new solar panels going up,
3
7476
4284
我幾乎每一天都能看到
新鋪上太陽能板的屋頂，
新鋪上太陽能板的屋頂，
00:23
electric car in the driveway.
4
11784
1727
電動車在路上奔馳。
00:25
Germany sometimes gets
half its power from solar,
half its power from solar,
5
13812
3215
德國有時能有一半能源來自太陽能，
00:29
and India is now committed
to building 10 times more solar
to building 10 times more solar
6
17051
4493
印度現正籌備建設的
太陽能發電裝置數量，
太陽能發電裝置數量，
00:33
than we have in California,
7
21568
1328
比加州在2022年將建成的
00:34
by the year 2022.
8
22920
1522
還要多10倍。
00:36
Even nuclear seems to be
making a comeback.
making a comeback.
9
24896
2350
甚至核能似乎都捲土重來了。
00:39
Bill Gates is in China
working with engineers,
working with engineers,
10
27874
3045
比爾·蓋茨在中國與工程師們合作，
00:42
there's 40 different companies
that are working together
that are working together
11
30943
2797
40家公司一起合作
00:45
to try to race to build the first
reactor that runs on waste,
reactor that runs on waste,
12
33764
3325
試圖爭先建造第一個
依靠核廢料運行的反應堆，
依靠核廢料運行的反應堆，
00:49
that can't melt down
13
37113
1237
它的爐心不會熔化，
00:50
and is cheaper than coal.
14
38374
1318
而且比煤更便宜。
00:52
And so you might start to ask:
15
40492
2305
所以，你可能會想問：
00:55
Is this whole global warming problem
16
43430
1797
那麼全球暖化問題
00:57
going to be a lot easier to solve
than anybody imagined?
than anybody imagined?
17
45251
2950
真的比任何人想像中都要容易解決嗎？
01:00
That was the question we wanted to know,
18
48504
1951
這是我們想知道的問題，
01:02
so my colleagues and I decided
to take a deep dive into the data.
to take a deep dive into the data.
19
50479
3242
所以我和同事決定深入研究數據。
01:05
We were a little skeptical of some parts
20
53745
2027
我們對潔淨能源革命的故事
01:07
of the clean energy revolution story,
21
55796
2007
其中有某些地方有點疑問。
01:09
but what we found really surprised us.
22
57827
2760
但是研究的結果卻讓我們感到驚訝。
01:12
The first thing is that clean
energy has been increasing.
energy has been increasing.
23
60611
3910
第一件事就是
潔淨能源的使用一直在增加。
潔淨能源的使用一直在增加。
01:16
This is electricity from clean energy
sources over the last 20 years.
sources over the last 20 years.
24
64545
4121
這是潔淨能源過去的20年發電量
01:21
But when you look at
the percentage of global electricity
the percentage of global electricity
25
69023
3718
但是，當你看全球電力的百分比
01:24
from clean energy sources,
26
72765
1339
來自潔淨能源的部分，
01:26
it's actually been in decline
from 36 percent to 31 percent.
from 36 percent to 31 percent.
27
74128
4566
實際上一直在下降，
從36％到31％。
從36％到31％。
01:30
And if you care about climate change,
28
78718
2182
如果你在乎氣候變化，
01:32
you've got to go in the opposite direction
29
80924
2146
你會覺得我們需要逆轉這個趨勢，
01:35
to 100 percent of our electricity
from clean energy sources,
from clean energy sources,
30
83094
3550
我們需要盡快把清潔能源所佔的
01:38
as quickly as possible.
31
86668
1598
發電比例提升到100%
01:40
Now, you might wonder,
32
88290
1157
現在，你可能會問，
01:41
"Come on, how much could five percentage
points of global electricity be?"
points of global electricity be?"
33
89471
3869
“嘿！全球電力的5%能有多少嘛？“
01:45
Well, it turns out to be quite a bit.
34
93364
1767
事實上，這並不少。
01:47
It's the equivalent of 60 nuclear plants
35
95155
3143
而是相當於60座，加州最後的發電廠
01:50
the size of Diablo Canyon,
California's last nuclear plant,
California's last nuclear plant,
36
98322
3611
代阿布洛峽谷核電廠的發電量，
01:53
or 900 solar farms the size of Topaz,
37
101957
3669
或900座加州托帕石太陽能電廠的發電量，
01:57
which is one of the biggest
solar farms in the world,
solar farms in the world,
38
105650
2529
這可是世界上最大的太陽能電廠。
02:00
and certainly our biggest in California.
39
108203
2626
當然也是加州最大的。
02:03
A big part of this is simply
that fossil fuels are increasing
that fossil fuels are increasing
40
111587
3244
圖中大部分的區域顯示，
02:06
faster than clean energy.
41
114855
1253
化石燃料持續增加，
比潔淨能源還快。
比潔淨能源還快。
02:08
And that's understandable.
42
116132
1239
這是可以理解的，
02:09
There's just a lot of poor countries
43
117395
1715
還有很多貧窮國家
02:11
that are still using wood
and dung and charcoal
and dung and charcoal
44
119134
2453
仍在使用木材、糞便和木炭
02:13
as their main source of energy,
45
121611
1585
作為主要的能源要來源，
02:15
and they need modern fuels.
46
123220
1451
他們需要現代燃料。
02:16
But there's something else going on,
47
124695
1949
但還有別的事情，
02:18
which is that one of those clean energy
sources in particular
sources in particular
48
126668
4055
那就是，
有一項潔淨能源的數據
有一項潔淨能源的數據
02:22
has actually been on the decline
in absolute terms,
in absolute terms,
49
130747
3408
從絕對數值來看，其實一直在下降，
02:26
not just relatively.
50
134179
1501
不只是相對數值，
02:27
And that's nuclear.
51
135704
1214
這就是核能。
02:28
You can see its generation
has declined seven percent
has declined seven percent
52
136942
3649
你可以看到核電發電量
在過去的10年
在過去的10年
02:32
over the last 10 years.
53
140615
1837
下降了百分之七。
02:34
Now, solar and wind have been
making huge strides,
making huge strides,
54
142476
2608
現在，太陽能和風能
已經有了巨大的進步，
已經有了巨大的進步，
02:37
so you hear a lot of talk
about how it doesn't really matter,
about how it doesn't really matter,
55
145108
2908
所以你聽到了很多演講，
說核能其實並不重要，
說核能其實並不重要，
02:40
because solar and wind
is going to make up the difference.
is going to make up the difference.
56
148040
2738
因為太陽能和風能足以彌補差額。
02:42
But the data says something different.
57
150802
1856
但數據顯示並非如此。
02:44
When you combine all the electricity
from solar and wind,
from solar and wind,
58
152682
3045
當你把所有太陽和風能相加，
02:47
you see it actually barely makes up
half of the decline from nuclear.
half of the decline from nuclear.
59
155751
4799
你看它實際上只能勉強彌補
核能下降值的一半。
核能下降值的一半。
02:53
Let's take a closer look
in the United States.
in the United States.
60
161758
2318
讓我們來檢視美國的數據。
02:56
Over the last couple of years --
really 2013, 2014 --
really 2013, 2014 --
61
164100
3791
在過去的幾年： 2013--2014年，
02:59
we prematurely retired
four nuclear power plants.
four nuclear power plants.
62
167915
3469
我們提早除役了四座核電廠。
03:03
They were almost entirely
replaced with fossil fuels,
replaced with fossil fuels,
63
171408
2799
幾乎完全以
化石燃料發電取代，
化石燃料發電取代，
03:06
and so the consequence
was that we wiped out
was that we wiped out
64
174231
3506
等同我們減少了
03:09
almost as much clean energy
electricity that we get from solar.
electricity that we get from solar.
65
177761
4926
與太陽能發電量相同的電能
03:14
And it's not unique to us.
66
182711
3021
這不是特例
03:18
People think of California
as a clean energy and climate leader,
as a clean energy and climate leader,
67
186113
3071
人們認為加州是潔淨能源和
對抗氣候變遷的領導者，
對抗氣候變遷的領導者，
03:21
but when we looked at the data,
68
189208
2008
但是，當我們看了一下數據，
03:23
what we found is that, in fact,
69
191240
1501
我們發現的是：事實上，
03:24
California reduced emissions more slowly
than the national average,
than the national average,
70
192765
3203
在2000和2015年之間，
03:27
between 2000 and 2015.
71
195992
1843
加州減少碳排放量速度低於全國平均水準。
03:30
What about Germany?
72
198359
1235
至於德國呢？
03:31
They're doing a lot of clean energy.
73
199618
2033
他們有很多潔淨能源。
03:33
But when you look at the data,
74
201675
1731
但是，當你看一下數據，
03:35
German emissions have actually
been going up since 2009,
been going up since 2009,
75
203430
3278
德國的排放量居然自2009年以來一直往上走，
03:38
and there's really not anybody
who's going to tell you
who's going to tell you
76
206732
2575
有真的沒有任何人能告訴你
03:41
that they're going to meet
their climate commitments in 2020.
their climate commitments in 2020.
77
209331
3308
他們要怎麼達成
2020年的減碳承諾。
2020年的減碳承諾。
03:45
The reason isn't hard to understand.
78
213137
1752
究其原因不難理解。
03:46
Solar and wind provide power
about 10 to 20 percent of the time,
about 10 to 20 percent of the time,
79
214913
3303
太陽能和風能可提供電能時間
約佔一天中10％到20％，
約佔一天中10％到20％，
03:50
which means that when
the sun's not shining,
the sun's not shining,
80
218240
2048
這意味著當沒陽光照耀、風不吹拂，
03:52
the wind's not blowing,
81
220312
1352
03:53
you still need power for your hospitals,
82
221688
2151
但醫院、城市及工廠仍需要電力
03:55
your homes, your cities, your factories.
83
223863
2730
03:58
And while batteries have made
some really cool improvements lately,
some really cool improvements lately,
84
226617
3904
電池在最近已經取得不小進步
04:02
the truth is, they're just never
going to be as efficient
going to be as efficient
85
230545
2708
事實是，電池永遠不會像
電網一樣有效率。
電網一樣有效率。
04:05
as the electrical grid.
86
233277
1199
04:06
Every time you put electricity
into a battery and take it out,
into a battery and take it out,
87
234500
3127
每回你將電能以電池儲存後，
再次將它拿出來，
再次將它拿出來，
04:09
you lose about 20 to 40
percent of the power.
percent of the power.
88
237651
3256
就會損失約20%至40%電能。
04:13
That's why when, in California,
89
241470
2593
這就是為什麼在加州
04:16
we try to deal with all the solar
we've brought online --
we've brought online --
90
244087
2714
我們試圖將太陽能與電網相連
04:18
we now get about 10 percent
of electricity from solar --
of electricity from solar --
91
246825
2764
我們現在約10％電力
取自太陽能發電。
取自太陽能發電。
04:21
when the sun goes down,
and people come home from work
and people come home from work
92
249613
2642
當太陽下山、人們下班回家，
04:24
and turn on their air conditioners
and their TV sets,
and their TV sets,
93
252279
2490
打開他們的空調、電視機，
04:26
and every other appliance in the house,
94
254793
1898
及屋裡其他電器，
04:28
we need a lot of natural gas backup.
95
256715
2461
我們需要大量的天然氣備載電力。
04:31
So what we've been doing
96
259200
1165
因此，我們一直將
04:32
is stuffing a lot of natural gas
into the side of a mountain.
into the side of a mountain.
97
260389
2914
大量天然氣儲存於一座山中。
04:35
And that worked pretty well for a while,
98
263616
2249
這工作已持續好一陣子了，
04:37
but then late last year,
it sprung a leak.
it sprung a leak.
99
265889
2991
但去年年底，
它如雨後春筍般湧現洩漏。
它如雨後春筍般湧現洩漏。
04:40
This is Aliso Canyon.
100
268904
1840
這是加州阿利索峽谷。
04:42
So much methane gas was released,
101
270768
3014
這麼多的甲烷(天然氣)外洩，
04:45
it was the equivalent of putting
half a million cars on the road.
half a million cars on the road.
102
273806
3186
它是把相當於五千輛
汽車在道路行駛。
汽車在道路行駛。
04:49
It basically blew through all
of our climate commitments for the year.
of our climate commitments for the year.
103
277016
3897
它基本上已超出
我們全年的碳排放量承諾。
我們全年的碳排放量承諾。
04:53
Well, what about India?
104
281681
1324
那麼，看看印度的情形？
04:55
Sometimes you have to go places
to really get the right data,
to really get the right data,
105
283029
3251
有時你要得到正確的數據，
還不得不親自跑一趟。
還不得不親自跑一趟。
04:58
so we traveled to India a few months ago.
106
286304
1981
因此，我們在幾個月前到訪印度。
05:00
We met with all the top officials --
solar, nuclear, the rest --
solar, nuclear, the rest --
107
288309
3131
我們會見了所有的高級官員 --
管太陽能、核能及其他種種 …..
管太陽能、核能及其他種種 …..
05:03
and what they told us is,
108
291464
1541
他們告訴我們：
05:05
"We're actually having
more serious problems
more serious problems
109
293029
2054
“我們實際上還有比德國和加州
05:07
than both Germany and California.
110
295107
1675
更嚴重的問題。
05:08
We don't have backup;
we don't have all the natural gas.
we don't have all the natural gas.
111
296806
3533
我們沒有備載，沒有足量的天然氣。
05:12
And that's just the start of it.
112
300363
2532
而這只是開端，
05:14
Say we want to get
to 100 gigawatts by 2022.
to 100 gigawatts by 2022.
113
302919
2889
假設我們預計到2022年
達到100萬千瓦。
達到100萬千瓦。
05:17
But last year we did just five,
114
305832
1952
但去年我們只建了5萬千瓦，
05:19
and the year before that, we did five."
115
307808
2038
而在這之前一年，我們建了5萬千瓦。“
05:21
So, let's just take
a closer look at nuclear.
a closer look at nuclear.
116
309870
2876
所以，讓我們仔細審視核能。
05:24
The United Nations Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change
Panel on Climate Change
117
312770
3223
聯合國政府間氣候變遷專門委員會
05:28
has looked at the carbon content
of all these different fuels,
of all these different fuels,
118
316017
2971
一直關注所有不同燃料的排碳量，
05:31
and nuclear comes out really low --
it's actually lower even than solar.
it's actually lower even than solar.
119
319012
3933
核能真的很低 –
實際上甚至低於太陽能。
實際上甚至低於太陽能。
05:34
And nuclear obviously
provides a lot of power --
provides a lot of power --
120
322969
3895
而且明顯能提供了大量的電能 -
05:38
24 hours a day, seven days a week.
121
326888
2553
每天24小時，每週七天。
05:41
During a year, a single plant can provide
power 92 percent of the time.
power 92 percent of the time.
122
329465
3934
一座核電廠一年中有
92％的時間可以提供電力。
92％的時間可以提供電力。
05:45
What's interesting is that
when you look at countries
when you look at countries
123
333423
2572
有趣的是，當你看那些
05:48
that have deployed different
kinds of clean energies,
kinds of clean energies,
124
336019
2542
已經發展各式潔淨能源的國家，
05:50
there's only a few that have done so
125
338585
1900
只有幾個在處理環境危機上
05:52
at a pace consistent with dealing
with the climate crisis.
with the climate crisis.
126
340509
2855
採取與治理環境一致的步伐。
05:55
So nuclear seems like
a pretty good option,
a pretty good option,
127
343388
2051
因此，核能似乎是相當不錯的選擇，
05:57
but there's this big problem with it,
128
345463
2038
但是核能有個大問題，
05:59
which all of you, I'm sure, are aware of,
129
347525
2030
我敢肯定你們都知道的，
06:01
which is that people really don't like it.
130
349579
2828
就是人們真的不喜歡它。
06:04
There was a study, a survey done
of people around the world,
of people around the world,
131
352431
3191
大約一年半前有一項研究，
針對世界各地的人們，
針對世界各地的人們，
06:07
not just in the United States or Europe,
132
355646
2503
不只是在美國或歐洲，
06:10
about a year and a half ago.
133
358173
1531
所進行的調查。
06:11
And what they found
134
359728
1334
他們發現
06:13
is that nuclear is actually one
of the least popular forms of energy.
of the least popular forms of energy.
135
361086
3792
核能是最不受歡迎的
能源形式。
能源形式。
06:16
Even oil is more popular than nuclear.
136
364902
2430
甚至石油都比核能更受歡迎。
06:19
And while nuclear kind of
edges out coal, the thing is,
edges out coal, the thing is,
137
367356
3166
雖然核能替代了煤，但實情是，
06:22
people don't really fear coal
in the same way they fear nuclear,
in the same way they fear nuclear,
138
370546
3817
人並不像懼怕核能那樣害怕煤，
06:26
which really operates on our unconscious.
139
374387
2417
這確實在存在我們的潛意識中。
06:28
So what is it that we fear?
140
376828
1635
那麼，是什麼讓我們恐懼？
06:30
There's really three things.
141
378487
1550
有三件確定的事：
06:32
There's the safety
of the plants themselves --
of the plants themselves --
142
380061
2240
核電廠本身的安全 -
06:34
the fears that they're going
to melt down and cause damage;
to melt down and cause damage;
143
382325
2805
害怕爐心熔化，造成損壞。
06:37
there's the waste from them;
144
385154
1345
其次是核電廠的核廢料。
06:38
and there's the association with weapons.
145
386523
2507
最後還有與核武器的關聯。
06:41
And I think, understandably,
146
389562
1436
我認為，這是可以理解的，
06:43
engineers look at those concerns
and look for technological fixes.
and look for technological fixes.
147
391022
4042
工程師們專注於這些疑慮，
並在技術上加以修正。
並在技術上加以修正。
06:47
That's why Bill Gates is in China
developing advanced reactors.
developing advanced reactors.
148
395088
2983
這就是為什麼比爾·蓋茨
在中國開發先進的反應器。
在中國開發先進的反應器。
06:50
That's why 40 different entrepreneurs
are working on this problem.
are working on this problem.
149
398095
3124
這就是為什麼40個不同的企業家
正在研究這個問題。
正在研究這個問題。
06:53
And I, myself, have been
very excited about it.
very excited about it.
150
401243
2231
而我自己，一直對此非常興奮。
06:55
We did a report:
"How to Make Nuclear Cheap."
"How to Make Nuclear Cheap."
151
403498
2142
我們完成一份報告：
“如何使核能變便宜。”
“如何使核能變便宜。”
06:57
In particular, the thorium reactor
shows a lot of promise.
shows a lot of promise.
152
405664
2898
特別是，釷反應器
使很多事變得可行。
使很多事變得可行。
07:00
So when the climate
scientist, James Hansen,
scientist, James Hansen,
153
408586
2104
所以當氣候科學家詹姆斯·漢森
07:02
asked if I wanted to go to China with him
154
410714
2269
詢問我是否願意到與他到中國去，
07:05
and look at the Chinese
advanced nuclear program,
advanced nuclear program,
155
413007
2384
並瞧瞧中國的先進核能計劃，
07:07
I jumped at the chance.
156
415415
1250
我立刻躍躍欲試。
07:08
We were there with MIT
and UC Berkeley engineers.
and UC Berkeley engineers.
157
416689
3191
我們與MIT和加州大學柏克萊分校
的工程師到那裏。
的工程師到那裏。
07:11
And I had in my mind
158
419904
1676
我腦中相信
07:13
that the Chinese would be able
to do with nuclear
to do with nuclear
159
421604
2312
中國將能夠將核能做起來。
07:15
what they did with so many other things --
160
423940
2047
就像他們已經完成的其他許多事情 --
07:18
start to crank out small nuclear
reactors on assembly lines,
reactors on assembly lines,
161
426011
3929
開始在生產線上製出小型核反應器，
07:21
ship them up like iPhones or MacBooks
and send them around the world.
and send them around the world.
162
429964
4388
把它們裝船像iPhone或
MacBook筆電般運到世界各地。
MacBook筆電般運到世界各地。
07:26
I would get one at home in Berkeley.
163
434376
1983
我在柏克萊的家中也能弄到一個。
07:29
But what I found was somewhat different.
164
437120
1961
但我發現有些不同。
07:31
The presentations were all
very exciting and very promising;
very exciting and very promising;
165
439105
2904
這些介紹都非常令人興奮
且覺得前途似錦。
且覺得前途似錦。
07:34
they have multiple reactors
that they're working on.
that they're working on.
166
442033
2486
他們擁有多個反應器
且正在運行，
且正在運行，
07:36
The time came for the thorium reactor,
and a bunch of us were excited.
and a bunch of us were excited.
167
444543
3305
介紹釷反應器時，
我們一幫人都很興奮。
我們一幫人都很興奮。
07:39
They went through the whole presentation,
they got to the timeline,
they got to the timeline,
168
447872
3399
他們介紹完了，談到計畫時程時，
07:43
and they said,
169
451295
1257
他們說：
07:44
"We're going to have
a thorium molten salt reactor
a thorium molten salt reactor
170
452576
3518
“我們不得不將釷熔鹽反應器
07:48
ready for sale to the world
171
456118
2165
上市的時間訂於
07:50
by 2040."
172
458307
1562
2040年。"
07:52
And I was like, "What?"
173
460850
1613
我當時就像這樣--“啥？”
07:54
(Laughter)
174
462487
1015
（笑聲）
07:55
I looked at my colleagues and I was like,
175
463526
2008
我看了看我的同事，然後就像這樣，
07:57
"Excuse me --
176
465558
1468
“對不起 - “
07:59
can you guys speed that up a little bit?
177
467050
2330
你們可以稍微加速一點嗎？
08:01
Because we're in a little bit
of a climate crisis right now.
of a climate crisis right now.
178
469404
3074
因為我們現在有一點氣候危機，
08:04
And your cities are really
polluted, by the way."
polluted, by the way."
179
472502
2726
而同時你們的城市污染真的是嚴重。"
08:07
And they responded back, they were like,
180
475252
2318
他們回應道，他們也想，
08:09
"I'm not sure what you've heard
about our thorium program,
about our thorium program,
181
477594
2780
“我不知道你聽說過
我們的什麼釷計劃，
我們的什麼釷計劃，
08:12
but we don't have a third of our budget,
182
480398
1915
但我們連三分之一的預算都沒有，
08:14
and your department of energy
hasn't been particularly forthcoming
hasn't been particularly forthcoming
183
482337
3112
你們能源部好像也不是很主動
08:17
with all that data you guys
have on testing reactors."
have on testing reactors."
184
485473
3481
公開你們測試的反應器數據。“
08:21
And I said, "Well, I've got an idea.
185
489382
2358
我說：“嗯，我有一個想法。
08:23
You know how you've got 10 years
where you're demonstrating that reactor?
where you're demonstrating that reactor?
186
491764
3596
你知道10年
你們在哪裡展示這反應器？
你們在哪裡展示這反應器？
08:27
Let's just skip that part,
187
495384
1572
讓我們跳過這一部分，
08:28
and let's just go right
to commercializing it.
to commercializing it.
188
496980
2350
直接商業化。
08:31
That will save money and time."
189
499354
1646
這將節省時間和金錢。“
08:33
And the engineer just
looked at me and said,
looked at me and said,
190
501379
2592
工程師看著我，說：
08:35
"Let me ask you a question:
191
503995
1626
“讓我問你一個問題：
08:37
Would you buy a car that had never
been demonstrated before?"
been demonstrated before?"
192
505645
3518
你會買一輛從來沒有
展示過的汽車嗎？“
展示過的汽車嗎？“
08:41
So what about the other reactors?
193
509913
1597
那麼，關於其他的反應器呢？
08:43
There's a reactor that's coming online
now, they're starting to sell it.
now, they're starting to sell it.
194
511534
3452
也就說即將上線的反應器，
現在他們已經開始出售了。
現在他們已經開始出售了。
08:47
It's a high-temperature gas reactor.
195
515010
1786
這是一個高溫氣體反應器。
08:48
It can't melt down.
196
516820
1263
它不會熔毀。
08:50
But it's really big and bulky,
that's part of the safety,
that's part of the safety,
197
518845
2735
但它確實又大又笨重，
這是安全的一部分，
這是安全的一部分，
08:53
and nobody thinks
it's going to ever get cheaper
it's going to ever get cheaper
198
521604
2288
沒有人認為會有
08:55
than the reactors that we have.
199
523916
1940
比我們更便宜的反應器。
08:57
The ones that use waste as fuel
are really cool ideas, but the truth is,
are really cool ideas, but the truth is,
200
525880
4076
使用核廢料作為燃料
真的是很酷的想法，但事實是：
真的是很酷的想法，但事實是：
09:01
we don't actually know how to do that yet.
201
529980
2048
我們實際上並不知道該怎麼做。
09:04
There's some risk that you'll
actually make more waste,
actually make more waste,
202
532052
2595
你要冒著實際上製造
更多的核廢料的風險，
更多的核廢料的風險，
09:06
and most people think
that if you're including
that if you're including
203
534671
2794
大多數人認為如果你把
09:09
that waste part of the process,
204
537489
2082
處理廢料的部份加上去，
09:11
it's just going to make the whole
machine a lot more expensive,
machine a lot more expensive,
205
539595
2967
整個機器將更加而昂貴不少，
09:14
it's just adding another complicated step.
206
542586
2332
它只是增加另一個複雜的步驟。
09:17
The truth is,
207
545765
1294
事實是，
09:19
there's real questions about how much
of that we're going to do.
of that we're going to do.
208
547695
3150
有多少真正的問題是
我們要處理的。
我們要處理的。
09:22
I mean, we went to India and asked
about the nuclear program.
about the nuclear program.
209
550869
2886
我的意思是，我們去了印度，
並要求看核能計劃。
並要求看核能計劃。
09:25
The government said
before the Paris climate talks
before the Paris climate talks
210
553779
2398
政府表示，
巴黎的氣候談判之前
巴黎的氣候談判之前
09:28
that they were going to do something
like 30 new nuclear plants.
like 30 new nuclear plants.
211
556201
3056
他們打算做些什麼，
例如蓋30座新的核電廠。
例如蓋30座新的核電廠。
09:31
But when we got there
and interviewed people
and interviewed people
212
559281
2071
但是，當我們到了那裡
並採訪相關人士
並採訪相關人士
09:33
and even looked at the internal documents,
213
561376
2081
甚至看了看內部文件，
09:35
they're now saying
they're going to do about five.
they're going to do about five.
214
563481
2452
他們現在說大約要蓋5座。
09:37
And in most of the world,
especially the rich world,
especially the rich world,
215
565957
2546
而在世界上大多數國家，
尤其是有錢人的世界，
尤其是有錢人的世界，
09:40
they're not talking
about building new reactors.
about building new reactors.
216
568527
2286
他們不要建立新的核反應器。
09:42
We're actually talking
about taking reactors down
about taking reactors down
217
570837
2288
我們實際上是在談論
09:45
before their lifetimes are over.
218
573149
1666
關於在使用期限前將其除役。
09:46
Germany's actually pressuring
its neighbors to do that.
its neighbors to do that.
219
574839
2788
德國實際上施壓他的鄰居這樣做。
09:49
I mentioned the United States --
220
577651
1807
我提到美國 -
09:51
we could lose half of our reactors
over the next 15 years,
over the next 15 years,
221
579482
4343
在接下來的15年裡，我們可能
會關掉一半的反應器。
會關掉一半的反應器。
09:55
which would wipe out 40 percent
of the emissions reductions
of the emissions reductions
222
583849
2817
這將使碳排放減少40％。
09:58
we're supposed to get
under the Clean Power Plan.
under the Clean Power Plan.
223
586690
2344
前提是得全由潔淨能源取代才行。
10:01
Of course, in Japan, they took
all their nuclear plants offline,
all their nuclear plants offline,
224
589058
3067
當然，在日本，
他們將所有的核電廠下線，
他們將所有的核電廠下線，
10:04
replaced them with coal,
natural gas, oil burning,
natural gas, oil burning,
225
592149
2353
用煤、天然氣及石油取而代之，
10:06
and they're only expected to bring
online about a third to two-thirds.
online about a third to two-thirds.
226
594526
3562
而他們只預期將約三分之一
到三分之二的反應器再上線。
到三分之二的反應器再上線。
10:10
So when we went through the numbers,
227
598112
2545
所以，當我們核算一下數字，
10:12
and just added that up --
228
600681
1323
給它們算了算 -
10:14
how much nuclear do we see
China and India bringing online
China and India bringing online
229
602028
3121
接下來的15年裡，
10:17
over the next 15 years,
230
605173
1962
中國和印度將有多少核電廠上線，
10:19
how much do we see at risk
of being taken offline --
of being taken offline --
231
607159
3556
有多少是有被下線的風險 。
10:22
this was the most startling finding.
232
610739
2289
這是最令人吃驚的發現。
10:25
What we found is that
the world is actually at risk
the world is actually at risk
233
613052
3491
我們發現的是，
世界其實是有風險可能失去
世界其實是有風險可能失去
10:28
of losing four times more clean energy
than we lost over the last 10 years.
than we lost over the last 10 years.
234
616567
5464
4倍於過去10年減少量的潔淨能源。
10:34
In other words: we're not
in a clean energy revolution;
in a clean energy revolution;
235
622055
3350
換句話說：我們不處於潔淨能源革命，
10:37
we're in a clean energy crisis.
236
625429
2110
而是在潔淨能源危機中。
10:40
So it's understandable that engineers
would look for a technical fix
would look for a technical fix
237
628992
4172
所以工程師將尋求技術性修正
10:45
to the fears that people have of nuclear.
238
633188
1954
人們對核能的疑慮是可以理解的。
10:47
But when you consider
that these are big challenges to do,
that these are big challenges to do,
239
635166
2776
但是，當你考慮
這些都是巨大的挑戰，
這些都是巨大的挑戰，
10:49
that they're going to take
a long time to solve,
a long time to solve,
240
637966
2285
他們要花費很長的時間來解決，
10:52
there's this other issue, which is:
241
640275
1746
還有這另一個問題，這就是：
10:54
Are those technical fixes
really going to solve people's fears?
really going to solve people's fears?
242
642045
3307
那些技術性修正
真的能解決人們的恐慌、
真的能解決人們的恐慌、
10:57
Let's take safety.
243
645828
1558
使我們感到安全嗎？
10:59
You know, despite what people think,
244
647410
2485
要知道，儘管人們這樣想，
11:01
it's hard to figure out how
to make nuclear power much safer.
to make nuclear power much safer.
245
649919
3133
還是很難弄清楚如何
才能使核電更加安全。
才能使核電更加安全。
11:05
I mean, every medical
journal that looks at it --
journal that looks at it --
246
653076
2318
我的意思是，
每本探討這個問題的醫學期刊-
每本探討這個問題的醫學期刊-
11:07
this is the most recent study
from the British journal, "Lancet,"
from the British journal, "Lancet,"
247
655418
3108
這是英國醫學期刊“柳葉刀”最近的研究。
11:10
one of the most respected
journals in the world --
journals in the world --
248
658550
2453
世上最受尊敬的期刊之一 -
11:13
nuclear is the safest way
to make reliable power.
to make reliable power.
249
661027
2519
核能是最安全可靠的能源。
11:15
Everybody's scared of the accidents.
250
663570
1781
發生事故時，每個人都嚇壞了。
11:17
So you go look at the accident data --
251
665375
2294
所以，你去看看事故的數據 -
11:19
Fukushima, Chernobyl --
252
667693
1495
福島、車諾比爾 -
11:21
the World Health Organization
finds the same thing:
finds the same thing:
253
669212
2703
世界衛生組織發現同樣的事情：
11:23
the vast majority of harm
is caused by people panicking,
is caused by people panicking,
254
671939
3975
絕大多數的危害是人們恐慌造成的，
11:27
and they're panicking
because they're afraid.
because they're afraid.
255
675938
2320
他們恐慌，因為他們害怕。
11:30
In other words,
256
678282
1225
換一種說法，
11:31
the harm that's caused
isn't actually caused by the machines
isn't actually caused by the machines
257
679531
3533
造成損害的不是實際的機器
11:35
or the radiation.
258
683088
1381
或輻射。
11:36
It's caused by our fears.
259
684493
1729
它是恐懼。
11:38
And what about the waste?
260
686573
1445
那核廢料呢？
11:40
Everyone worries about the waste.
261
688042
1592
每個人都擔心核廢料。
11:41
Well, the interesting
thing about the waste
thing about the waste
262
689658
2183
好了，關於核廢料有趣的是：
11:43
is how little of it there is.
263
691865
1419
它有多麼小。
11:45
This is just from one plant.
264
693308
1377
這是從一個核電廠運出來的廢料。
11:46
If you take all the nuclear waste
we've ever made in the United States,
we've ever made in the United States,
265
694709
3377
如果你把所有的核廢料，
我們已經在美國做過，
我們已經在美國做過，
11:50
put it on a football field, stacked it up,
266
698110
2199
把它放在足球場上堆積起來，
11:52
it would only reach 20 feet high.
267
700333
2223
它只會達到20英尺 (6.1m) 高。 -
11:54
And people say it's poisoning
people or doing something --
people or doing something --
268
702580
3274
人們說這會使人中毒或造成一些事情。
11:57
it's not, it's just sitting
there, it's just being monitored.
there, it's just being monitored.
269
705878
2899
它不會，它只是放在那裡，被監控著，
12:00
There's not very much of it.
270
708801
1387
就只是這樣而已。
12:02
By contrast, the waste that we don't
control from energy production --
control from energy production --
271
710212
3823
相較之下，能源生產中
不受控制的廢料 -
不受控制的廢料 -
12:06
we call it "pollution," and it kills
seven million people a year,
seven million people a year,
272
714059
3124
我們稱之為“污染”，
一年殺死七百萬人。
一年殺死七百萬人。
12:09
and it's threatening very serious
levels of global warming.
levels of global warming.
273
717207
2829
並造成全球暖化的嚴重威脅。
12:12
And the truth is that even if we get
good at using that waste as fuel,
good at using that waste as fuel,
274
720060
3952
而事實是，即使我們能
善用核廢物作為燃料，
善用核廢物作為燃料，
12:16
there's always going to be
some fuel left over.
some fuel left over.
275
724036
2275
總是有一些核燃料遺留下來。
12:18
That means there's always going to be
people that think it's a big problem
people that think it's a big problem
276
726335
3871
這意味著有總是有人認為
這是一個大問題。
這是一個大問題。
12:22
for reasons that maybe don't have
as much to do with the actual waste
as much to do with the actual waste
277
730230
3304
他們的顧慮也許和真正產生了多少廢料
沒有我們想象的那麼大關係。
沒有我們想象的那麼大關係。
12:25
as we think.
278
733558
1269
12:26
Well, what about the weapons?
279
734851
1745
那麼，核電與核武的關聯呢？
也許最令人吃驚的事情是，
12:29
Maybe the most surprising thing
is that we can't find any examples
is that we can't find any examples
280
737052
3293
我們找不到任何的例子，
有擁有核電的國家表示，
有擁有核電的國家表示，
12:32
of countries that have nuclear power
281
740369
1953
“哦！”，決定把核廢料變核武。
12:34
and then, "Oh!" decide to go get a weapon.
282
742346
2428
事實上，它的工作原理是相反的。
12:36
In fact, it works the opposite.
283
744798
1702
12:38
What we find is the only way we know
284
746524
2166
我們發現就所知能
擺脫大量核武的唯一途徑，
擺脫大量核武的唯一途徑，
12:40
how to get rid large numbers
of nuclear weapons
of nuclear weapons
285
748714
2452
12:43
is by using the plutonium in the warheads
286
751190
2800
就是將核武中的鈽彈頭
做為核電廠的燃料。
12:46
as fuel in our nuclear power plants.
287
754014
2452
12:48
And so, if you are wanting to get
the world rid of nuclear weapons,
the world rid of nuclear weapons,
288
756490
3914
所以，如果你讓世界擺脫核武器，
12:52
then we're going to need
a lot more nuclear power.
a lot more nuclear power.
289
760428
2662
那麼我們會需要更大量的核電。
（掌聲）
12:55
(Applause)
290
763955
2873
當我要離開中國時，
13:01
As I was leaving China,
291
769515
1366
13:02
the engineer that brought Bill Gates there
kind of pulled me aside,
kind of pulled me aside,
292
770905
3189
帶比爾·蓋茨到那裡的
工程師把我拉到一邊，
工程師把我拉到一邊，
13:06
and he said, "You know, Michael,
I appreciate your interest
I appreciate your interest
293
774118
2781
他說："邁克爾我感謝你
關注所有不同的核能供應技術，
13:08
in all the different nuclear
supply technologies,
supply technologies,
294
776923
2707
13:11
but there's this more basic issue,
295
779654
2922
但眼前有更根本的問題，
我們的全球需求有限。
13:14
which is that there's just not
enough global demand.
enough global demand.
296
782600
2539
我的意思是，我們在
生產線組裝這些機器、
生產線組裝這些機器、
13:17
I mean, we can crank out
these machines on assembly lines,
these machines on assembly lines,
297
785163
2925
我們知道如何讓東西便宜，
13:20
we do know how to make things cheap,
298
788112
1744
13:21
but there's just not enough
people that want them."
people that want them."
299
789880
2398
但只是沒有足夠的買主。"
13:24
And so, let's do solar and wind
and efficiency and conservation.
and efficiency and conservation.
300
792302
4942
所以，讓我們先改進太陽能
和風能的效率和保存。
和風能的效率和保存。
我們要加快先進核能計劃。
13:29
Let's accelerate the advanced
nuclear programs.
nuclear programs.
301
797268
2284
我認為應該多花三倍錢就可以了。
13:31
I think we should triple the amount
of money we're spending on it.
of money we're spending on it.
302
799576
3153
但我認為當務之急是：
13:35
But I just think the most important thing,
303
803054
2389
13:37
if we're going to overcome
the climate crisis,
the climate crisis,
304
805467
2156
如果我們要克服氣候危機，
13:39
is to keep in mind that the cause
of the clean energy crisis
of the clean energy crisis
305
807647
4613
是要記住，引發潔淨能源危機的，
不是我們的機器，
13:44
isn't from within our machines,
306
812922
2259
這是我們內心的恐懼。
13:47
it's from within ourselves.
307
815205
1808
13:49
Thank you very much.
308
817557
1251
非常感謝你。
13:50
(Applause)
309
818832
6521
（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Michael Shellenberger - Climate policy expertMichael Shellenberger is a global thinker on energy, technology and the environment.
Why you should listen
Michael Shellenberger is co-founder and Senior Fellow at the Breakthrough Institute, where he was president from 2003 to 2015, and a co-author of the Ecomodernist Manifesto.
Over the last decade, Shellenberger and his colleagues have constructed a new paradigm that views prosperity, cheap energy and nuclear power as the keys to environmental progress. A book he co-wrote (with Ted Nordhaus) in 2007, Break Through: From the Death of Environmentalism to the Politics of Possibility, was called by Wired magazine "the best thing to happen to environmentalism since Rachel Carson's Silent Spring," while Time magazine called him a "hero of the environment." In the 1990s, he helped protect the last significant groves of old-growth redwoods still in private hands and bring about labor improvements to Nike factories in Asia.
Michael Shellenberger | Speaker | TED.com