TED2013
Allan Savory: How to fight desertification and reverse climate change
艾伦·萨弗瑞（Allan Savory）： 如何绿化沙漠并扭转气候变化
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“荒漠化是个华丽的词，用来描述正在变成沙漠的土地，”艾伦·萨弗瑞（Allan Savory）用这句话开始了这个强有力的演讲。可怕的是，世界上三分之二的草地正在变成沙漠，加快了气候变化并导致传统放牧社会陷入混乱。萨弗瑞奉献一生的时间来制止它。现在他相信——他的工作也显示了——一个惊人的因素能保护草原并恢复退化成沙漠的土地。
Allan Savory - Grassland ecosystem pioneer
Allan Savory works to promote holistic management in the grasslands of the world. Full bio
Allan Savory works to promote holistic management in the grasslands of the world. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:17
The most massive
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这场最强大的
00:20
tsunami perfect storm
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完美海啸风暴
00:25
is bearing down upon us.
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正在击垮我们。
00:29
This perfect storm
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这场完美风暴
（指独立发生时没有危险性，但同时发生时
会带来灾难性后果的事件组合）
（指独立发生时没有危险性，但同时发生时
会带来灾难性后果的事件组合）
00:33
is mounting a grim reality, increasingly grim reality,
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正在加剧一个严峻的现实，日趋严峻的现实，
00:38
and we are facing that reality
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我们满怀着一种信念
00:43
with the full belief
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来面对这个现实
00:44
that we can solve our problems with technology,
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就是我们能够用技术来解决这些问题，
00:47
and that's very understandable.
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这是非常可以理解的。
00:49
Now, this perfect storm that we are facing
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现在，我们面临的完美风暴
00:53
is the result of our rising population,
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是我们人口增长的结果，
00:57
rising towards 10 billion people,
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增长到100亿的人，
00:59
land that is turning to desert,
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土地在变成沙漠，
01:02
and, of course, climate change.
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当然，气候变化了。
01:05
Now there's no question about it at all:
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对这些，毫无疑问：
01:08
we will only solve the problem
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我们只会用技术来取代化石燃料
01:10
of replacing fossil fuels with technology.
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来解决问题。
01:13
But fossil fuels, carbon -- coal and gas --
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化石燃料，碳元素——煤和天然气——
01:16
are by no means the only thing
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绝不是唯一
01:18
that is causing climate change.
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导致气候变化的东西。
01:22
Desertification
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荒漠化，一个华丽大词
01:24
is a fancy word for land that is turning to desert,
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是来描述正在变成荒漠的土地，
01:30
and this happens only when
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这种情形的产生是因为
01:32
we create too much bare ground.
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我们制造了太多的荒地。
01:34
There's no other cause.
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没有别的原因。
01:36
And I intend to focus
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我打算把重点放在
01:38
on most of the world's land that is turning to desert.
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世界上大部分正在变成沙漠的土地。
01:43
But I have for you a very simple message
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我有一个非常简单的信息给你们
01:48
that offers more hope than you can imagine.
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它提供了比你们想象的更多的希望。
01:52
We have environments
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我们有些环境
01:54
where humidity is guaranteed throughout the year.
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那儿的湿度全年有保证。
01:58
On those, it is almost impossible
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这些地方，几乎不可能
02:00
to create vast areas of bare ground.
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形成大面积的裸露的地面。
02:03
No matter what you do, nature covers it up so quickly.
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不管你做什么，大自然会很快盖住这些土地。
02:07
And we have environments
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我们有些环境
02:08
where we have months of humidity
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那里有几个月有雨水
02:11
followed by months of dryness,
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接着有几个月的干旱期，
02:13
and that is where desertification is occurring.
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在这里就在发生荒漠化。
02:16
Fortunately, with space technology now,
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幸运的是，借助航天技术的发展，
02:18
we can look at it from space,
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我们能从太空看到地球全貌，
02:20
and when we do, you can see the proportions fairly well.
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你们能很清楚的看到不同地貌的比例。
02:24
Generally, what you see in green
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总体上，你们看到的绿色
02:26
is not desertifying,
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是不会荒漠化的，
02:28
and what you see in brown is,
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而你们看到的棕色区域会荒漠化，
02:30
and these are by far the greatest areas of the Earth.
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这些区域目前是地球上最大的区域。
02:35
About two thirds, I would guess, of the world is desertifying.
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我猜想，世界有三分之二在荒漠化。
02:39
I took this picture in the Tihamah Desert
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这张照片是我在提哈迈沙漠拍的
02:42
while 25 millimeters -- that's an inch of rain -- was falling.
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下着25毫米（一英寸）的雨。
02:46
Think of it in terms of drums of water,
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把它想成是装在桶里，
02:49
each containing 200 liters.
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每桶装200升。
02:51
Over 1,000 drums of water fell on every hectare
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那天每公顷的土地上
02:56
of that land that day.
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下了1000桶水。
02:59
The next day, the land looked like this.
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第二天，土地是这个样子。
03:01
Where had that water gone?
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那些水去哪里了？
03:04
Some of it ran off as flooding,
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一部分流走了，
03:06
but most of the water that soaked into the soil
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大部分水渗进了土壤
03:09
simply evaporated out again,
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又蒸发掉了，
03:12
exactly as it does in your garden
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这跟你的花园里发生的过程一样，
03:14
if you leave the soil uncovered.
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裸露的地方很快就会变干。
03:17
Now, because the fate of water and carbon
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现在，因为水和碳元素
03:20
are tied to soil organic matter,
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都是被保存在土壤有机质中的，
03:24
when we damage soils, you give off carbon.
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当我们破坏了土壤，我们就释放出了碳元素
（以二氧化碳 CO2 或甲烷 CH4 的形式）。
（以二氧化碳 CO2 或甲烷 CH4 的形式）。
03:28
Carbon goes back to the atmosphere.
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碳元素回到大气层。
03:31
Now you're told over and over, repeatedly,
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这些话你们现在已经听了很多遍，
03:35
that desertification is only occurring
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荒漠化只出现在
03:38
in arid and semi-arid areas of the world,
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世界的干旱和半干旱地区，
03:42
and that tall grasslands like this one
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像这样的高原
03:45
in high rainfall are of no consequence.
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降雨量再高也没有结果。
03:49
But if you do not look at grasslands but look down into them,
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但如果你不是远远的看，而是看草地的土壤表面，
03:54
you find that most of the soil in that grassland
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你会发现草地里大部分的土壤表面
03:56
that you've just seen is bare and covered with a crust of algae,
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都是光秃秃的，只有很少的藻类覆盖在上面，
04:01
leading to increased runoff and evaporation.
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这导致了水分的流失和蒸发。
04:04
That is the cancer of desertification
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这是导致荒漠化的致命原因
04:08
that we do not recognize till its terminal form.
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而我们直到荒漠化的末期才会察觉。
04:12
Now we know that desertification is caused by livestock,
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现在我们知道沙漠化是由家畜
04:18
mostly cattle, sheep and goats,
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多数是牛、绵羊和山羊等
04:20
overgrazing the plants,
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过度放牧，吃光了植被，
04:23
leaving the soil bare and giving off methane.
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使得土壤表面裸露出来并释放甲烷。
04:27
Almost everybody knows this,
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几乎人人都知道这点，
04:30
from nobel laureates to golf caddies,
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从诺贝尔奖获得者到高尔夫球童，
04:32
or was taught it, as I was.
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都和我一样都这么教育过。
04:35
Now, the environments like you see here,
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你们看到的这些环境，
04:39
dusty environments in Africa where I grew up,
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尘土飞扬的非洲，是我成长的地方。
04:41
and I loved wildlife,
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我喜欢野生动物，
04:44
and so I grew up hating livestock
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我从小不喜欢牲畜
04:48
because of the damage they were doing.
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因为家畜造成了生态破坏。
04:50
And then my university education as an ecologist
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我在大学读生态学的经历
04:53
reinforced my beliefs.
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也增强了我的信念。
04:56
Well, I have news for you.
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现在，我要告诉你们一些新的东西。
05:01
We were once just as certain
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我们曾相信
05:05
that the world was flat.
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世界是平坦的。
05:07
We were wrong then, and we are wrong again.
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我们那时错了，现在又错了。
05:11
And I want to invite you now
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我想邀请你们
05:13
to come along on my journey of reeducation and discovery.
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来加入我的再教育和探索之旅。
05:19
When I was a young man,
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我年轻的时候，
05:22
a young biologist in Africa,
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是非洲的一个年轻生物学家，
05:25
I was involved in setting aside marvelous areas
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我参与了一个项目，为国家公园规划
05:29
as future national parks.
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未来的野生区域。
05:32
Now no sooner — this was in the 1950s —
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不久后——这是1950年
05:35
and no sooner did we remove the hunting,
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我们刚取消打猎，
05:38
drum-beating people to protect the animals,
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鼓动人们保护动物，
05:42
than the land began to deteriorate,
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接着土地开始恶化，
05:44
as you see in this park that we formed.
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这是我们建立的公园。
05:48
Now, no livestock were involved,
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这里并没有牲畜（破坏植被），
05:50
but suspecting that we had too many elephants now,
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于是我们怀疑是大象的数量太多了，
05:54
I did the research and I proved we had too many,
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我做过调查，并得出了大象数量过多的结论，
05:58
and I recommended that we would have to reduce their numbers
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我建议应该减少它们的数量
06:02
and bring them down to a level that the land could sustain.
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把数量降到土地能承受的水平。
06:06
Now, that was a terrible decision for me to have to make,
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对我来说，我不得不承认这个可怕的结论，
06:10
and it was political dynamite, frankly.
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而坦率地说，这是个政治炸弹。
06:12
So our government formed a team of experts
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所以政府组了一个专家团
06:16
to evaluate my research.
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来评估我的调查结果。
06:18
They did. They agreed with me,
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他们评估之后，也同意我的观点，
06:21
and over the following years,
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在接下来的那些年，
06:23
we shot 40,000 elephants to try to stop the damage.
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我们射杀了4万头大象来停止土地退化。
06:28
And it got worse, not better.
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情形变得更坏了，而不是更好。
06:32
Loving elephants as I do,
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我很喜欢大象的，
06:35
that was the saddest and greatest blunder of my life,
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这是我人生中最悲哀的、最大的错误，
06:38
and I will carry that to my grave.
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我会带进坟墓。
06:41
One good thing did come out of it.
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也有一件好事。
06:43
It made me absolutely determined
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它使我下定决心
06:47
to devote my life to finding solutions.
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奉献我的一生去寻找解决方案。
06:52
When I came to the United States, I got a shock,
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我来到美国，我大吃一惊，
06:56
to find national parks like this one
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发现美国国家公园竟然是这个样子
06:59
desertifying as badly as anything in Africa.
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荒漠化的程度跟非洲一样糟糕。
07:03
And there'd been no livestock on this land
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在这片土地上已经70多年
07:05
for over 70 years.
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没有牲畜的。
07:08
And I found that American scientists
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我发现美国科学家
07:10
had no explanation for this
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对此的解释没有什么特别
07:13
except that it is arid and natural.
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认为无非是干旱和自然条件导致。
07:16
So I then began looking
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于是我开始收集和分析
07:19
at all the research plots I could
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我能找到的整个美国西部
07:22
over the whole of the Western United States
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所有的（野外）研究站的数据
07:25
where cattle had been removed
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那些地方的牛群都被移走了
07:27
to prove that it would stop desertification,
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来证明这样会停止荒漠化，
07:30
but I found the opposite,
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可是我发现的却相反，
07:32
as we see on this research station,
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看这个研究站，
07:35
where this grassland that was green in 1961,
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在1961年这片草地是绿的，
07:38
by 2002 had changed to that situation.
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到2002年变成这种状况。
07:43
And the authors of the position paper on climate change
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这些图片来自于研究气候变化的研究人员的论文
07:48
from which I obtained these pictures
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他们在观点论文中
07:51
attribute this change to "unknown processes."
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这种变化归因为“未知进程”。
07:57
Clearly, we have never understood
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显然，我们从未明白
08:01
what is causing desertification,
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什么导致了荒漠化，
08:03
which has destroyed many civilizations
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这种荒漠化已经毁掉了很多的文明社会
08:06
and now threatens us globally.
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而现在对我们的威胁是全球性的。
08:09
We have never understood it.
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我们从来都没有搞清楚过。
08:11
Take one square meter of soil
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像这样一平方米的土壤表面
08:14
and make it bare like this is down here,
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像下面这样程度的裸露着，
08:16
and I promise you, you will find it much colder at dawn
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我敢说，它会比被植被覆盖的地方，
08:19
and much hotter at midday
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同样的大的地方，
08:22
than that same piece of ground if it's just covered with litter,
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黎明的时候会冷得多，
08:26
plant litter.
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中午时会热得多。
08:27
You have changed the microclimate.
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你已经改变了这个地方的微气候。
08:31
Now, by the time you are doing that
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现在，就像你刚才做的那样
08:33
and increasing greatly the percentage of bare ground
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如果世界上裸露的土地的面积快速的增长到
08:38
on more than half the world's land,
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超过了世界土地一半以上的面积，
08:42
you are changing macroclimate.
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大气候就被我们改变了。
08:45
But we have just simply not understood
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但是我们还是无法理解
08:48
why was it beginning to happen 10,000 years ago?
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为什么这个过程一万年前就开始了？
08:52
Why has it accelerated lately?
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又为什么最近加快了？
08:55
We had no understanding of that.
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我们对此无法理解。
08:57
What we had failed to understand
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我们过去不了解的是
09:00
was that these seasonal humidity environments of the world,
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世界上这些季节性雨水充沛的环境中
09:04
the soil and the vegetation
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伴随着植被的蓬勃生长
09:07
developed with very large numbers of grazing animals,
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数量可观的游牧食草动物也随之而来，
09:13
and that these grazing animals
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而这些游牧的动物
09:15
developed with ferocious pack-hunting predators.
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又引来了凶猛的猎食者。
09:21
Now, the main defense against pack-hunting predators
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游牧动物防御捕食者的主要方法
09:24
is to get into herds,
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是群居生活，
09:27
and the larger the herd, the safer the individuals.
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兽群越大，个体就越安全。
09:31
Now, large herds dung and urinate all over their own food,
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大量的兽群在自己的食物上大小便，
09:36
and they have to keep moving,
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而它们又必须不断的迁移，
09:39
and it was that movement
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这些迁移过程
09:41
that prevented the overgrazing of plants,
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防止了过渡放牧的现象，
09:43
while the periodic trampling
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同时定期的踩踏土壤
09:46
ensured good cover of the soil,
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正如这群动物路过时发生的那样
09:48
as we see where a herd has passed.
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确保了土壤表面得到了很好的覆盖。
09:51
This picture is a typical seasonal grassland.
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这张图是典型的季节性草原。
09:58
It has just come through four months of rain,
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刚刚经历了4个月的雨季，
10:00
and it's now going into eight months of dry season.
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将要进入8个月的旱季。
10:04
And watch the change as it goes into this long dry season.
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注意看草原进入漫长的旱季后的变化。
10:08
Now, all of that grass you see aboveground
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你们看到的所有地表上的草
10:11
has to decay biologically
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在下个生长季节到来之前
10:14
before the next growing season, and if it doesn't,
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都会腐烂掉，否则的话，
10:18
the grassland and the soil begin to die.
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草地和土壤就会开始死亡。
10:22
Now, if it does not decay biologically,
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如果它不是生物性的腐烂，
10:25
it shifts to oxidation, which is a very slow process,
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而是以氧化的形式腐烂，这是一个非常缓慢的过程，
10:30
and this smothers and kills grasses,
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并且会消耗氧气，杀死草本植物，
10:33
leading to a shift to woody vegetation
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只有木本的植物才能生存，导致了
10:37
and bare soil, releasing carbon.
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地表被裸露，碳元素释放到大气层。
10:40
To prevent that, we have traditionally used fire.
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为了防止这种情况，传统上我们是用火烧。
10:45
But fire also leaves the soil bare, releasing carbon,
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可是火也会让地表被裸露，碳元素释放到大气层，
10:51
and worse than that,
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更糟糕的是，
10:53
burning one hectare of grassland
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烧掉一公顷的草地
10:56
gives off more, and more damaging, pollutants
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所释放的有害污染物，要比6000辆汽车
10:59
than 6,000 cars.
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排放的总和还要多。
11:02
And we are burning in Africa, every single year,
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每年在非洲我们都会烧掉
11:06
more than one billion hectares of grasslands,
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十亿公顷以上的草地，
11:11
and almost nobody is talking about it.
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几乎没人关心过这个。
11:15
We justify the burning, as scientists,
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作为科学家，我们理解
11:19
because it does remove the dead material
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烧草可以除掉死植物
11:22
and it allows the plants to grow.
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允许植物成长。
11:25
Now, looking at this grassland of ours that has gone dry,
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看看这片草地已经枯干，
11:28
what could we do to keep that healthy?
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我们做什么才能保持健康？
11:31
And bear in mind, I'm talking of most of the world's land now.
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记住，我讲的是世界上大部分的土地。
11:34
Okay? We cannot reduce animal numbers to rest it more
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明白么？我们不能用减少动物数量的方式让植被休养
11:39
without causing desertification and climate change.
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因为这会引发土地荒漠化和气候变化。
11:42
We cannot burn it without causing
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我们不能用焚烧的方法
11:46
desertification and climate change.
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这也会引发荒漠化和气候变化。
11:48
What are we going to do?
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那我们能怎么办？
11:54
There is only one option,
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只有一种方案，
11:56
I'll repeat to you, only one option
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我再重复一遍，唯一的一种方法
11:59
left to climatologists and scientists,
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摆在气候学家和科学家的面前，
12:02
and that is to do the unthinkable,
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这个方案非常的不可思议，
12:05
and to use livestock,
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就是使用牲畜，
12:07
bunched and moving,
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成群结队地迁移，
12:10
as a proxy for former herds and predators,
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把它们看作从前的游牧动物和捕食动物，
12:14
and mimic nature.
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模拟大自然的行为。
12:16
There is no other alternative left to mankind.
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这种方法是人类唯一的选择了。
12:20
So let's do that.
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那就做吧。
12:22
So on this bit of grassland, we'll do it, but just in the foreground.
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我们将在这块小草地上实验这种方式。这只是一开始的样子。
12:26
We'll impact it very heavily with cattle to mimic nature,
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我们将会在上面用大量的家畜来模拟大自然的行为，
12:29
and we've done so, and look at that.
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现在来看下模拟之后草地的样子。
12:32
All of that grass is now covering the soil
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现在土壤已经被野草完全的覆盖，
12:35
as dung, urine and litter or mulch,
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上面还有家畜的粪便、尿液、以及其它的覆盖物，
12:39
as every one of the gardeners amongst you would understand,
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在座的观众如果做过园艺就会明白
12:43
and that soil is ready to absorb and hold the rain,
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这样的土壤已经可以吸收并保存雨水，
12:47
to store carbon, and to break down methane.
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可以保留住碳元素，并能够分解甲烷。
12:52
And we did that,
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我们做到了这一点，
12:54
without using fire to damage the soil,
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在没有用火去破坏土壤的前提下，
12:57
and the plants are free to grow.
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植被也可以自由生长。
13:00
When I first realized
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当我第一次意识到
13:02
that we had no option as scientists
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我们作为科学家没有别的选择
13:05
but to use much-vilified livestock
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只有用破坏性强的牲畜
13:08
to address climate change and desertification,
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来应对气候变化和荒漠化，
13:13
I was faced with a real dilemma.
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我面临着真正的困境。
13:15
How were we to do it?
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我们应该怎么去实现这个目标？
13:17
We'd had 10,000 years of extremely knowledgeable pastoralists
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牧民们已经积累了一万年丰富的畜牧经验，
13:21
bunching and moving their animals,
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知道如何群养和迁徙他们的动物，
13:23
but they had created the great manmade deserts of the world.
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但是，他们创造了世界上最大的人造沙漠。
13:27
Then we'd had 100 years of modern rain science,
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现代的降雨研究也持续了一百年以上，
13:31
and that had accelerated desertification,
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而这些研究反而加快了荒漠化，
13:34
as we first discovered in Africa
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正如我在非洲首先发现
13:36
and then confirmed in the United States,
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在美国得到证实的那样，
13:39
and as you see in this picture
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你们现在看到的图片
13:41
of land managed by the federal government.
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是联邦政府管理的土地。
13:44
Clearly more was needed
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这些土地需要的
13:46
than bunching and moving the animals,
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显然比起群牧和迁徙更多，
13:48
and humans, over thousands of years,
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几千年来，我们人类
13:52
had never been able to deal with nature's complexity.
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始终无法完全理解大自然的复杂性。
13:56
But we biologists and ecologists
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而我们的生物学家和生态学家
13:59
had never tackled anything as complex as this.
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从来没有尝试解决过这么复杂的事。
14:02
So rather than reinvent the wheel,
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我没有尝试重新发明车轮，
14:04
I began studying other professions to see if anybody had.
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而是转向别的科学领域，看看是否有成果可以借鉴。
14:08
And I found there were planning techniques
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我找到了任务规划方面的一些技术，
14:11
that I could take and adapt to our biological need,
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能够满足我们生物学领域的需求，
14:15
and from those I developed what we call
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在将这些技术引入生物学的过程中
14:17
holistic management and planned grazing,
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我们开发了一种称为“整体管理和计划放牧”方法，
14:21
a planning process,
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是一个规划过程，
14:23
and that does address all of nature's complexity
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这个方法设法了解并解决自然的复杂性
14:26
and our social, environmental, economic complexity.
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和我们社会的、环境的、经济的复杂性。
14:31
Today, we have young women like this one
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今天，我们有像这样的年轻女性
14:34
teaching villages in Africa
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在非洲的村庄里传授技术
14:36
how to put their animals together into larger herds,
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如何把他们的动物集合成一大群，
14:39
plan their grazing to mimic nature,
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如何安排计划达到模拟大自然的效果
14:42
and where we have them hold their animals overnight --
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在哪里让他们的动物过夜--
14:46
we run them in a predator-friendly manner,
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我们用一种对捕食者友好的方法
14:48
because we have a lot of lands, and so on --
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因为我们有很多土地，
14:51
and where they do this and hold them overnight
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它们在哪里模拟大自然，在哪里过夜，
14:53
to prepare the crop fields,
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我们就在哪里准备庄稼地，
14:55
we are getting very great increases in crop yield as well.
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我们的庄稼收成也会很好。
14:59
Let's look at some results.
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看看这些结果。
15:00
This is land close to land that we manage in Zimbabwe.
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这块地靠近我们在津巴布韦的土地。
15:05
It has just come through four months of very good rains
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刚刚过了四个月的雨水充沛的季节
15:08
it got that year, and it's going into the long dry season.
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即将进入漫长的旱季。
15:12
But as you can see, all of that rain, almost of all it,
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可是你们也会看到，几乎所有的雨水，
15:15
has evaporated from the soil surface.
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从土壤表面蒸发掉了。
15:18
Their river is dry despite the rain just having ended,
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尽管雨停了，河还是干的，
15:22
and we have 150,000 people
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我们有15万人口
15:25
on almost permanent food aid.
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几乎长期依靠食物援助。
15:29
Now let's go to our land nearby on the same day,
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看看同一天我们的土地，
15:33
with the same rainfall, and look at that.
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同样的雨量，看吧。
15:36
Our river is flowing and healthy and clean.
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我们的河水流淌，健康而干净。
15:39
It's fine.
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很好的。
15:41
The production of grass, shrubs, trees, wildlife,
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草、 灌木、 树木、 野生动物等的
15:47
everything is now more productive,
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一切都很高产，
15:50
and we have virtually no fear of dry years.
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我们一点都不怕干旱年头。
15:54
And we did that by increasing the cattle and goats
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这样做是通过增加了400%的
15:59
400 percent,
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牛和羊，
16:01
planning the grazing to mimic nature
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有计划的放牧，模拟大自然的过程
16:04
and integrate them with all the elephants, buffalo,
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跟大象，水牛，长颈鹿
16:07
giraffe and other animals that we have.
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以及其它的动物融合一体。
16:10
But before we began, our land looked like that.
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但在我们开始前，我们的土地是这个样子。
16:16
This site was bare and eroding for over 30 years
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这块地裸露和侵蚀了30多年
16:21
regardless of what rain we got.
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不管下多少雨。
16:24
Okay? Watch the marked tree and see the change
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看看这棵做了标记的树，
16:28
as we use livestock to mimic nature.
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看看我们用牲畜去模仿自然后的变化。
16:31
This was another site
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这是另一块地
16:33
where it had been bare and eroding,
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这里也曾裸露和侵蚀，
16:35
and at the base of the marked small tree,
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在这棵做了标记的小树底下，
16:38
we had lost over 30 centimeters of soil. Okay?
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我们流失了30厘米的土壤。对吧？
16:42
And again, watch the change
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再看一下这个变化
16:44
just using livestock to mimic nature.
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只是使用牲畜去模仿自然。
16:47
And there are fallen trees in there now,
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这里有些倒下的树，
16:49
because the better land is now attracting elephants, etc.
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因为土地变好更吸引大象。
16:54
This land in Mexico was in terrible condition,
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在墨西哥的这块土地情形很糟，
16:57
and I've had to mark the hill
307
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我在这个小山上做了标记
16:59
because the change is so profound.
308
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因为变化太大了。
17:04
(Applause)
309
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5725
（掌声）
17:11
I began helping a family in the Karoo Desert in the 1970s
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20世纪70年代我开始帮助一个在卡鲁沙漠的家庭
17:16
turn the desert that you see on the right there
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你们看到在右边
17:19
back to grassland,
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沙漠变回了草地，
17:21
and thankfully, now their grandchildren are on the land
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值得庆幸的是，现在他们的子孙在这片土地上
17:24
with hope for the future.
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对未来充满希望。
17:26
And look at the amazing change in this one,
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看看这个喜人的变化，
17:29
where that gully has completely healed
316
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2712
那里的沟壑已完全愈合
17:32
using nothing but livestock mimicking nature,
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只是用了牧群模仿大自然的过程，
17:36
and once more, we have the third generation of that family
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更可喜的是，第三代人生活在那里
17:41
on that land with their flag still flying.
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他们的旗帜依旧飞扬。
17:44
The vast grasslands of Patagonia
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巴塔哥尼亚这片辽阔的草原
17:46
are turning to desert as you see here.
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正在变成沙漠。
17:49
The man in the middle is an Argentinian researcher,
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在中间的那个人是一位阿根廷研究员，
17:52
and he has documented the steady decline of that land
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他已经记录了这片土地的持续衰落
17:55
over the years as they kept reducing sheep numbers.
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多年来羊群数目持续减少。
17:59
They put 25,000 sheep in one flock,
325
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4848
他们把2万5千只羊作为一群，
18:04
really mimicking nature now with planned grazing,
326
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3949
真正模仿大自然的过程并有规划的放牧，
18:08
and they have documented a 50-percent increase
327
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4343
他们的记录显示，第一年土地的产量
18:12
in the production of the land in the first year.
328
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有50%的增长。
18:15
We now have in the violent Horn of Africa
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现在在冲突不断的非洲之角（非洲大陆最东的地区）
18:18
pastoralists planning their grazing to mimic nature
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3456
牧民们通过规牧群游牧活动模仿大自然
18:22
and openly saying it is the only hope they have
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并公开的表示这是他们唯一的希望
18:25
of saving their families and saving their culture.
332
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来哺育他们的家人，挽救他们的文化。
18:29
Ninety-five percent of that land
333
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2076
这块地的95%的人
18:31
can only feed people from animals.
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依靠动物为生。
18:34
I remind you that I am talking about
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我要提醒大家，世界上大部分的土地
18:36
most of the world's land here that controls our fate,
336
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4441
都是如此，它们掌握着人类的命运，
18:41
including the most violent region of the world,
337
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3056
包括世界最暴力的地区，
18:44
where only animals can feed people
338
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2952
这些土地上有95%的人
18:47
from about 95 percent of the land.
339
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3304
以动物作为唯一的食物来源。
18:50
What we are doing globally is causing climate change
340
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5134
这种全球范围的人类行为导致了气候变化，
18:55
as much as, I believe, fossil fuels,
341
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3296
我相信这种原因的重要性至少和化石燃料一样，
18:59
and maybe more than fossil fuels.
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3536
可能比化石燃料还多。
19:02
But worse than that, it is causing hunger, poverty,
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3675
更糟的是，它引起饥饿，贫困
19:06
violence, social breakdown and war,
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暴力，社会崩溃和战争，
19:09
and as I am talking to you,
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正如我刚才告诉你们的，
19:11
millions of men, women and children
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数以百万计的男人，女人和孩子
19:14
are suffering and dying.
347
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正在遭受痛苦和死亡。
19:17
And if this continues,
348
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2712
如果这种情况持续下去，
19:19
we are unlikely to be able to stop the climate changing,
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3794
即使我们停止使用了化石燃料
19:23
even after we have eliminated the use of fossil fuels.
350
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5047
我们可能也无法阻止气候的改变了。
19:28
I believe I've shown you how we can work with nature
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我相信我已经向你们展示了我们如何与大自然共处
19:32
at very low cost
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用很低的成本
19:35
to reverse all this.
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来扭转这一切。
19:37
We are already doing so
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我们正在全球五大洲
19:40
on about 15 million hectares
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大约1500万公顷的土地上
19:44
on five continents,
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实施这一计划，
19:47
and people who understand
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为了说明这个计划的效果
19:48
far more about carbon than I do
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一些远远比我更了解碳元素的人
19:50
calculate that, for illustrative purposes,
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计算得到了一些结论，
19:53
if we do what I am showing you here,
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如果我们按照这样去做，
19:56
we can take enough carbon out of the atmosphere
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我们就能减少大气层中足够多的碳（CO2）
20:00
and safely store it in the grassland soils
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将它们安全的储存于草地土壤中
20:04
for thousands of years,
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达千年之久，
20:05
and if we just do that on about half the world's grasslands
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如果全球一半的草地都实施
20:10
that I've shown you,
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我刚才说的方法，
20:12
we can take us back to pre-industrial levels,
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我们就能（把CO2）控制到工业化之前的水平，
20:15
while feeding people.
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并能养活全球的人口。
20:17
I can think of almost nothing
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我几乎想不出任何事
20:20
that offers more hope for our planet,
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能给我们的地球，你们的孩子
20:23
for your children,
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和孩子们的孩子，以及整个人类
20:25
and their children, and all of humanity.
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提供更大的希望，
20:28
Thank you.
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谢谢！
20:31
(Applause)
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（掌声）
20:40
Thank you. (Applause)
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谢谢！（掌声）
20:53
Thank you, Chris.
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（掌声）, Chris.
20:55
Chris Anderson: Thank you. I have,
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Chris Anderson(CA):谢谢！
20:58
and I'm sure everyone here has,
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我相信这里的每个人，包括我在内
21:00
A) a hundred questions, B) wants to hug you.
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都有好多问题想问，并且想要拥抱你一下。
21:04
I'm just going to ask you one quick question.
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我只问个简单问题。
21:06
When you first start this and you bring in a flock of animals,
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当你开始这个实验的时候，把一大群动物引进来，
21:09
it's desert. What do they eat? How does that part work?
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但这是沙漠，他们吃什么？这个问题怎么解决的？
21:13
How do you start?
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你如何开始？
21:14
Allan Savory: Well, we have done this for a long time,
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Allan Savory(AS): 我们已经做了很长时间，
21:15
and the only time we have ever had to provide any feed
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只有一次我们必须提供吃的
21:19
is during mine reclamation,
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是矿山复垦期间，
21:21
where it's 100 percent bare.
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那里是百分之百的没有任何植被。
21:23
But many years ago, we took the worst land in Zimbabwe,
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很多年前，我们得到一块津巴布韦最差的土地，
21:27
where I offered a £5 note
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当时我出5英镑打赌
21:30
in a hundred-mile drive
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没人能在一百英里的
21:32
if somebody could find one grass
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驾程范围内找到一根草
21:35
in a hundred-mile drive,
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在一百英里的驾程范围，
21:37
and on that, we trebled the stocking rate,
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我们把动物的数量增加了三倍，
21:39
the number of animals, in the first year with no feeding,
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第一年没有提供食物，
21:43
just by the movement, mimicking nature,
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只靠迁徙，模仿自然，
21:46
and using a sigmoid curve, that principle.
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使用（统计学上的）S型曲线的原理。
21:51
It's a little bit technical to explain here, but just that.
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要解释清楚就要一些技术基础，总之就是这个样子。
21:53
CA: Well, I would love to -- I mean, this such an interesting and important idea.
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CA: 这是个有趣和重要的想法。
21:57
The best people on our blog are going to come and talk to you
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接下来我们最好博客记者会继续采访你
21:59
and try and -- I want to get more on this
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我想知道更多一点
22:01
that we could share along with the talk.AS: Wonderful.
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CA: 我们可以一起分享。
AS：太好了。
AS：太好了。
22:04
CA: That is an astonishing talk, truly an astonishing talk,
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CA: 这真是一个令人吃惊的演讲，真的令人吃惊，
22:08
and I think you heard that we all are cheering you on your way.
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你听到了我们的喝彩。
22:11
Thank you so much.AS: Well, thank you. Thank you. Thank you, Chris.
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CA: 非常感谢。
AS: 谢谢，谢谢，谢谢，Chris！
AS: 谢谢，谢谢，谢谢，Chris！
22:14
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Allan Savory - Grassland ecosystem pioneerAllan Savory works to promote holistic management in the grasslands of the world.
Why you should listen
Desertification of the world's grasslands, Allan Savory suggests, is the immediate cause of poverty, social breakdown, violence, cultural genocide -- and a significent contribution to climate change. In the 1960s, while working in Africa on the interrelated problems of increasing poverty and disappearing wildlife, Savory made a significant breakthrough in understanding the degradation and desertification of grassland ecosystems. After decades of study and collaboration, thousands of managers of land, livestock and wildlife on five continents today follow the methodology he calls "Holistic Management."
In 1992, Savory and his wife, Jody Butterfield, formed the Africa Centre for Holistic Management in Zimbabwe, a learning site for people all over Africa. In 2010, the Centre won the Buckminster Fuller Challenge for its work in reversing desertification. In that same year he and his wife, with others, founded the Savory Institute in Boulder, Colorado, to promote large-scale restoration of the world's grasslands.
Intrigued by this talk? Read Savory's papers and other publications »
Allan Savory | Speaker | TED.com