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TEDGlobal 2009

Ian Goldin: Navigating our global future

伊恩·高登 (Ian Goldin): 世界未来发展的方向

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眼下全球化和科技进步把我们飞速带往一个全新的,大同的世界。而伊恩·高登提醒我们,并不是人人都能公平地从中受益。但是他也提到,如果我们能够对这一潜伏的危险有所觉察,迟早我们还是会意识到我们可以利用全球化来为人人谋福祉。

- Economist, development visionary
Ian Goldin is director of the Oxford Martin School. Through the school's program of research, collaboration and education, he's powering new, cross-disciplinary thinking about global problems from the near and far future. Full bio

The future, as we know it, is very unpredictable.
众所周知,未来是变幻莫测的。
00:15
The best minds in the best institutions
那些供职于顶级科研机构的各个领域的专家
00:19
generally get it wrong.
基本上在曲解未来。
00:21
This is in technology. This is in the area of politics,
这种情况在科技,政治领域很常见,
00:23
where pundits, the CIA, MI6 always get it wrong.
美国CIA,英国MI6(与CIA性质类似)的专家们就是很好的例子。
00:27
And it's clearly in the area of finance.
在金融领域十分明显。
00:30
With institutions established to think about the future,
他们建立相关机构来思考未来,
00:33
the IMF, the BIS, the Financial Stability Forum, couldn't see what was coming.
比如:IMF (国际货币基金组织),BIS (国际清算银行),金融稳定论坛,但是他们也没能找到答案。
00:35
Over 20,000 economists
超过2万名经济学家,
00:39
whose job it is, competitive entry to get there,
他们比谁都更迫切地想找到答案,
00:41
couldn't see what was happening.
而面对现在发生的一切,他们也没什么头绪。
00:43
Globalization is getting more complex.
全球化正变得愈加复杂。
00:45
And this change is getting more rapid.
而且这种变化的速度越来越快。
00:47
The future will be more unpredictable.
未来将会更加难以预料。
00:49
Urbanization, integration,
城市化,一体化,
00:51
coming together, leads to a new renaissance.
交织在一起,方向是新一轮的复兴。
00:53
It did this a thousand years ago.
同样的事情在1000年前就发生过。
00:56
The last 40 years have been extraordinary times.
过去的40年是非比寻常的40年。
00:58
Life expectancy has gone up by about 25 years.
世界人均寿命增长了25岁。
01:01
It took from the Stone Age to achieve that.
人类平均寿命从石器时代发展到现在才达到这个水平。
01:04
Income has gone up for a majority of the world's population,
世界大多数人口的收入都得到增长,
01:07
despite the population going up by about two billion people over this period.
尽管在此期间世界人口总数增长了20亿。
01:09
And illiteracy has gone down, from a half to about a quarter of the people on Earth.
此外,世界人口中,文盲的比例从50%降至约25%。
01:14
A huge opportunity, unleashing of new potential
这是巨大的机遇,
01:17
for innovation, for development.
为创新与发展带来前所未有的可能性。
01:20
But there is an underbelly.
可是,全球化并不是完美无缺的。
01:22
There are two Achilles' heels of globalization.
它有两处软肋。
01:24
There is the Achilles' heel of growing inequality --
首先就是不平等现象。
01:27
those that are left out, those that feel angry,
对那些感到自己被排除在全球化之外,心怀不满,
01:29
those that are not participating. Globalization
不愿参与全球化的人,
01:32
has not been inclusive.
全球化没有做到一视同仁。
01:34
The second Achilles' heel is complexity --
全球化的第二处软肋就是它过于复杂。
01:36
a growing fragility, a growing brittleness.
它愈发地脆弱,经不起打击。
01:39
What happens in one place very quickly affects everything else.
某地如果发生了什么会很快地波及一切。
01:43
This is a systemic risk, systemic shock.
这就是我们所说的:系统性风险,系统性冲击。
01:46
We've seen it in the financial crisis. We've seen it in the pandemic flu.
我们在金融危机,大规模流感中,已经见识到它的厉害了。
01:49
It will become virulent and it's something we have to build resilience against.
情况会变得更加要命,建立弹性机制加以应对势在必行。
01:52
A lot of this is driven by what's happening in technology.
这一切很大程度上是被科技进步所驱使的。
01:56
There have been huge leaps. There will be a million-fold improvement
科技领域发生着翻天覆地的变化。到2030年的时候,
01:59
in what you can get for the same price
花一样的钱,
02:02
in computing by 2030.
你能买到比现在的电脑先进无数倍的产品。
02:04
That's what the experience of the last 20 years has been.
我们在过去20年中经历的就是如此。
02:06
It will continue.
将来也会是如此。
02:08
Our computers, our systems will be as primitive
我们现在用的电脑和系统以后都会变成老古董
02:10
as the Apollo's are for today.
就像我们现在回头看阿波罗飞船上的电脑一样。
02:13
Our mobile phones are more powerful than the total Apollo space engine.
现在我们用的手机都比阿波罗飞船的引擎功能更强大
02:15
Our mobile phones are more powerful than
我们的手机,
02:18
some of the strongest computers of 20 years ago.
甚至比20年前有些最高端计算机还要强大
02:20
So what will this do?
那么,这意味着什么呢?
02:22
It will create huge opportunities in technology.
这将给科技领域带来无限的机遇。
02:24
Miniaturization as well.
在小型化领域也是如此。
02:27
There will be invisible capacity. Invisible capacity in our bodies,
将来我们可以在人体,
02:29
in our brains, and in the air.
大脑,空气等肉眼无法看到的地方展开作业
02:32
This is a dust mite on a nanoreplica.
尘螨下面是一台纳米自我复制机。
02:34
This sort of ability to do everything in new ways unleashes potential,
这种变革能力带来的就是潜能的爆发,
02:37
not least in the area of medicine.
而这不仅陷于医学领域。
02:41
This is a stem cell that we've developed here in Oxford,
这是牛津大学从胚胎干细胞里
02:43
from an embryonic stem cell.
培育出来的干细胞。
02:46
We can develop any part of the body.
我们可以培植人体各个部位。
02:48
Increasingly, over time, this will be possible from our own skin --
随着时间的推移,从我们自己的皮肤里复制培植人体器官,
02:50
able to replicate parts of the body.
将不再是空想。
02:53
Fantastic potential for regenerative medicine.
再造医学潜力巨大。
02:55
I don't think there will be a Special Olympics long after 2030,
我觉得2030年之后就不会再有残奥会了,
02:57
because of this capacity to regenerate parts of the body.
因为我们可以再造人体各部位。
03:01
But the question is, "Who will have it?"
但问题是:”谁会拥有这种能力呢?“
03:04
The other major development is going to be
另一重要的发展将会发生在
03:06
in the area of what can happen in genetics.
遗传学领域。
03:08
The capacity to create, as this mouse has been genetically modified,
这就是创造的能力。就像这只转基因老鼠一样,
03:10
something which goes three times faster,
它的速度,
03:16
lasts for three times longer, we could produce,
耐力都超出普通老鼠3倍,
03:18
as this mouse can, to the age of our equivalent of 80 years,
换算成人类的年龄的话,80岁老人也能像青年人一样充满活力,
03:20
using about the same amount of food.
而消耗食物却与常人无异。
03:24
But will this only be available for the super rich,
但是,这会不会仅供那些富豪,
03:27
for those that can afford it? Are we headed for a new eugenics?
那些能消费得起的人的专用?我们的下一站是哪里?新的优生学吗?
03:29
Will only those that are able to afford it
难道只有那些有钱人
03:32
be able to be this super race of the future?
才能做将来的超人类吗?
03:35
(Laughter)
(笑声)
03:38
So the big question for us is,
所以我们面对的最重要的问题就是,
03:39
"How do we manage this technological change?"
”我们该如何掌控这一科技变革?“
03:41
How do we ensure that it creates
如何才能确保,
03:43
a more inclusive technology,
这一变革将使科技更加一视同仁,造福所有人?
03:45
a technology which means
也就是说,
03:47
that not only as we grow older,
科技让我们能够在变老的同时
03:50
that we can also grow wiser, and that we're able to support
智慧也随之增长,继而很好地应对
03:52
the populations of the future?
未来的人口问题。
03:54
One of the most dramatic manifestations of these improvements
能够凸显这一系列进步的
03:56
will be moving from population pyramids
将会是人口结构从金字塔形(年轻型)
03:59
to what we might term population coffins.
开始向所谓的”棺材“形(老年型)转变。
04:01
There is unlikely to be a pension
到了2030年,可能就不会看到诸如”养老金“,
04:04
or a retirement age in 2030.
”适龄退休“这类的字眼了。
04:06
These will be redundant concepts. And this isn't only something of the West.
这些概念将不再适用。不仅在西方社会
04:09
The most dramatic changes will be the skyscraper
人口结构会出现巨大变化
04:12
type of new pyramids
像这种”摩天大楼“形,(成年型)
04:15
that will take place in China and in many other countries.
将会出现在中国以及其他很多国家。
04:17
So forget about retirements if you're young.
好了,台下的年轻人还不需去想退休这个问题。
04:20
Forget about pensions. Think about life and where it's going to be going.
我们不谈养老金话题。想想生活,以后的生活。
04:22
Of course, migration will become even more important.
显而易见,移民问题将会变得越加重要。
04:25
The war on talent, the need to attract people
人才之战即将打响,吸引人才的需求
04:28
at all skill ranges,
涉及到各行各业,
04:30
to push us around in our wheelchairs,
人才在承担赡养老龄人口的责任的同时
04:32
but also to drive our economies. Our innovation will be vital.
也是经济增长的动力。我们的创新能力将是至关重要的因素。
04:34
The employment in the rich countries
在富裕国家,
04:37
will go down from about 800
工作人口的数量将从8亿
04:39
to about 700 million of these people.
降至7亿人。
04:41
This would imply a massive leap in migration.
这意味着一轮移民潮的到来。
04:43
So the concerns, the xenophobic concerns of today,
所以现在对移民的恐惧、仇视情绪
04:45
of migration, will be turned on their head,
将来会被逆转。
04:48
as we search for people to help us sort out
因为将来我们需要他们的帮助
04:50
our pensions and our economies in the future.
来解决养老金问题,经济问题。
04:53
And then, the systemic risks.
那么接着就是-系统性风险。
04:55
We understand that these will become much more virulent,
我们深知,这些风险的致命性会大大增加。
04:57
that what we see today
目前,
05:00
is this interweaving of societies, of systems,
各种科学门类,制度体系之间相辅相成,
05:02
fastened by technologies and hastened by just-in-time management systems.
而科技、"准时生产管理理念"(JIT理念)加速了它们的融合。
05:05
Small levels of stock push resilience into other people's responsibility.
少量的库存可以让生产者免受适应市场之苦(JIT理念的基本要义)
05:10
The collapse in biodiversity,
我们在维持生物多样化,对应气候变化
05:15
climate change, pandemics, financial crises:
大规模疾病爆发,金融危机等问题上屡屡受挫
05:17
these will be the currency that we will think about.
这些都是我们将来要考虑的课题。
05:20
And so a new awareness will have to arise,
因此,我们必须要用全新的意识,
05:23
of how we deal with these, how we mobilize ourselves,
思考如何应对这些问题,如何以全新的方式全体动员起来,
05:25
in a new way, and come together as a community
团结一致,
05:28
to manage systemic risk.
掌控系统性风险。
05:31
It's going to require innovation.
创新是必须的。
05:33
It's going to require an understanding that the glory of globalization
要知道,全球化如日中天的时刻
05:35
could also be its downfall.
也可能成为它衰落的起点。
05:39
This could be our best century ever because of the achievements,
因为有了许多的成就,本世纪可能是金色世纪。
05:41
or it could be our worst.
也有可能是灰色世纪。
05:44
And of course we need to worry about the individuals,
毫无疑问,“个人”会是未来的隐患。
05:46
particularly the individuals that feel that they've
尤其是那些感到自己被这样或那样的方式
05:48
been left out in one way or another.
排挤在全球化之外的人。
05:50
An individual, for the first time in the history of humanity,
到2030年,个人,
05:52
will have the capacity, by 2030,
将史无前例地拥有
05:55
to destroy the planet, to wreck everything,
毁灭地球,摧毁一切的能力。
05:57
through the creation, for example, of a biopathogen.
比如,利用制造生物病原体的方法。
06:00
How do we begin to weave these tapestries together?
这盘”大杂烩“我们该如何炒呢?
06:03
How do we think about complex systems in new ways?
我们怎样才能用新的方法思考错综复杂的系统、机制呢?
06:05
That will be the challenge of the scholars,
这对学者来说是挑战,
06:08
and of all of us engaged in thinking about the future.
对所有思考未来的人来说都是挑战。
06:10
The rest of our lives will be in the future. We need to prepare for it now.
我们要未雨绸缪。
06:13
We need to understand that the governance structure in the world is fossilized.
要知道,世界现有的执政结构已经陈腐僵化。
06:16
It cannot begin to cope with the challenges that this will bring.
难以应对未来的挑战。
06:19
We have to develop a new way of managing the planet,
我们管理地球的方式需要
06:23
collectively, through collective wisdom.
通过群策群力来革新。
06:26
We know, and I know from my own experience,
从我的亲身经历中,我明白
06:28
that amazing things can happen,
只要个人和社会为了改变未来
06:30
when individuals and societies come together
团结一致
06:32
to change their future.
什么事都有可能发生。
06:34
I left South Africa, and 15 years later,
15年前我离开了南非。
06:36
after thinking I would never go back,
我曾告诉自己”我再也不会回去。“
06:38
I had the privilege and the honor to work in the government of Nelson Mandela.
但我后来竟有幸为尼尔森·曼德拉的政府效力。
06:40
This was a miracle. We can create miracles,
这是奇迹。在我们有生之年,
06:43
collectively, in our lifetime.
我们可以团结一致,创造奇迹。
06:45
It is vital that we do so.
这势在必行。
06:47
It is vital that the ideas that are nurtured in TED,
能够在TED形成这些
06:49
that the ideas that we think about
思考,展望未来的想法很重要。
06:51
look forward, and make sure that this will be the most glorious century,
同样重要的是我们要确保这个世纪成为最美好的世纪,
06:53
and not one of eco-disaster and eco-collapse.
而不是一个生态遭到严重破坏,灾难重重的世纪。
06:56
Thank you. (Applause)
谢谢。(掌声)
06:59
Translated by Maoge Hou
Reviewed by Zachary Lin Zhao

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About the speaker:

Ian Goldin - Economist, development visionary
Ian Goldin is director of the Oxford Martin School. Through the school's program of research, collaboration and education, he's powering new, cross-disciplinary thinking about global problems from the near and far future.

Why you should listen

Take a look at Ian Goldin's jam-packed CV and you'll see why he was appointed the first Director of Oxford University's new think tank-cum-research center, the 21st Century School, later renamed the Oxford Martin School: Goldin battled apartheid in his native South Africa, served as a development adviser to Nelson Mandela and, as the VP of the World Bank, led collaborations with the UN on global development strategy. He is the author of 19 books, including Exceptional People: How Migration Shaped our World and Will Define our Future (Princeton University Press, 2011), Divided Nations: Why global governance is failing and what we can do about it (Oxford University Press, 2013) and The Butterfly Defect: How globalization creates systemic risks, and what to do about it (Princeton University Press, 2014).

At Oxford Martin School, with a diverse brigade of over 200 top researchers from the hard and social sciences, Goldin is bringing fresh thinking to bear on the big, looming issues of the next 100 years: climate change, disruptive technological advancements, aging, bio-ethics, infectious disease, poverty, political conflict.

More profile about the speaker
Ian Goldin | Speaker | TED.com