ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Ian Goldin - Economist, development visionary
Ian Goldin is director of the Oxford Martin School. Through the school's program of research, collaboration and education, he's powering new, cross-disciplinary thinking about global problems from the near and far future.

Why you should listen

Take a look at Ian Goldin's jam-packed CV and you'll see why he was appointed the first Director of Oxford University's new think tank-cum-research center, the 21st Century School, later renamed the Oxford Martin School: Goldin battled apartheid in his native South Africa, served as a development adviser to Nelson Mandela and, as the VP of the World Bank, led collaborations with the UN on global development strategy. He is the author of 19 books, including Exceptional People: How Migration Shaped our World and Will Define our Future (Princeton University Press, 2011), Divided Nations: Why global governance is failing and what we can do about it (Oxford University Press, 2013) and The Butterfly Defect: How globalization creates systemic risks, and what to do about it (Princeton University Press, 2014).

At Oxford Martin School, with a diverse brigade of over 200 top researchers from the hard and social sciences, Goldin is bringing fresh thinking to bear on the big, looming issues of the next 100 years: climate change, disruptive technological advancements, aging, bio-ethics, infectious disease, poverty, political conflict.

More profile about the speaker
Ian Goldin | Speaker | TED.com
TEDGlobal 2009

Ian Goldin: Navigating our global future

伊恩‧戈爾丁:航向未來

Filmed:
1,197,823 views

當全球化和技術的進步讓我們航向一個整合的未來的同時,伊恩•戈爾丁 警告大家可能得到不平均的利益。不過,他表示,如果我們能意識到這個危險,我們也許還可以改善大家的生活。
- Economist, development visionary
Ian Goldin is director of the Oxford Martin School. Through the school's program of research, collaboration and education, he's powering new, cross-disciplinary thinking about global problems from the near and far future. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:15
The future未來, as we know it, is very unpredictable不可預料的.
0
0
4000
眾所皆知 未來難以預測
00:19
The best最好 minds頭腦 in the best最好 institutions機構
1
4000
2000
頂尖研究機構中的佼佼者
00:21
generally通常 get it wrong錯誤.
2
6000
2000
還常會犯錯
00:23
This is in technology技術. This is in the area of politics政治,
3
8000
4000
技術領域有過前例 (1958年IBM總裁:電腦根本沒有市場) 政治領域亦然
00:27
where pundits專家, the CIA中央情報局, MIMI6 always get it wrong錯誤.
4
12000
3000
連智者、中情局、軍情六處 都會出錯 (07年政論名嘴:歐巴馬總統夢無望)
00:30
And it's clearly明確地 in the area of finance金融.
5
15000
3000
財經領域更是前科累累 (07年IMF: 整體風險前景似乎比過去半年低)
00:33
With institutions機構 established既定 to think about the future未來,
6
18000
2000
有些機構的工作是預測未來
00:35
the IMF國際貨幣基金組織, the BISBIS, the Financial金融 Stability穩定性 Forum論壇, couldn't不能 see what was coming未來.
7
20000
4000
但IMF,BIS或金融穩定論壇 都做不到
00:39
Over 20,000 economists經濟學家
8
24000
2000
超過兩萬名經濟學家一起動腦
00:41
whose誰的 job工作 it is, competitive競爭的 entry條目 to get there,
9
26000
2000
應該想得出辦法脫離困境
00:43
couldn't不能 see what was happening事件.
10
28000
2000
卻看不清前路
00:45
Globalization全球化 is getting得到 more complex複雜.
11
30000
2000
全球化愈來愈複雜
00:47
And this change更改 is getting得到 more rapid快速.
12
32000
2000
越來越迅速
00:49
The future未來 will be more unpredictable不可預料的.
13
34000
2000
未來會變得更難以預料
00:51
Urbanization城市化, integration積分,
14
36000
2000
都市化 區域整合 (全球化)
00:53
coming未來 together一起, leads引線 to a new renaissance再生.
15
38000
3000
將一起型塑新的文藝復興時代
00:56
It did this a thousand years年份 ago.
16
41000
2000
就像一千多年前發生過的一樣
00:58
The last 40 years年份 have been extraordinary非凡 times.
17
43000
3000
過去40年意義非凡
01:01
Life expectancy期待 has gone走了 up by about 25 years年份.
18
46000
3000
平均壽命提升了大約25年
01:04
It took from the Stone Age年齡 to achieve實現 that.
19
49000
3000
這是從石器時代累積至今的成果
01:07
Income收入 has gone走了 up for a majority多數 of the world's世界 population人口,
20
52000
2000
收入提升 大部分人口生活改善
01:09
despite儘管 the population人口 going up by about two billion十億 people over this period.
21
54000
5000
但人口數同時也增加了20億
01:14
And illiteracy文盲 has gone走了 down, from a half to about a quarter25美分硬幣 of the people on Earth地球.
22
59000
3000
文盲人數 從全人口的1/2下降至1/4
01:17
A huge巨大 opportunity機會, unleashing肆行 of new potential潛在
23
62000
3000
這是難得的機會 充滿無限可能
01:20
for innovation革新, for development發展.
24
65000
2000
創新與發展皆大有可為
01:22
But there is an underbelly軟肋.
25
67000
2000
但全球化也有罩門
01:24
There are two Achilles'阿基里斯 heels腳跟 of globalization全球化.
26
69000
3000
兩個致命的弱點
01:27
There is the Achilles'阿基里斯 heel腳跟 of growing生長 inequality不等式 --
27
72000
2000
一個是日益嚴重的不平等 (國家間的不平等)
01:29
those that are left out, those that feel angry憤怒,
28
74000
3000
那些沒有享受到全球化益處的人
01:32
those that are not participating參與. Globalization全球化
29
77000
2000
憤怒漸增 因為
01:34
has not been inclusive包括的.
30
79000
2000
全球化的果實不是人人有份
01:36
The second第二 Achilles'阿基里斯 heel腳跟 is complexity複雜 --
31
81000
3000
第二個是複雜性
01:39
a growing生長 fragility脆弱性, a growing生長 brittleness脆性.
32
84000
4000
全球體制越來越脆弱易碎
01:43
What happens發生 in one place地點 very quickly很快 affects影響 everything else其他.
33
88000
3000
遷一髮而動全局
01:46
This is a systemic系統的 risk風險, systemic系統的 shock休克.
34
91000
3000
這是系統性的風險
01:49
We've我們已經 seen看到 it in the financial金融 crisis危機. We've我們已經 seen看到 it in the pandemic流感大流行 flu流感.
35
94000
3000
金融風暴席捲、流感蔓延 都是明證
01:52
It will become成為 virulent有毒 and it's something we have to build建立 resilience彈性 against反對.
36
97000
4000
唯有堅強的韌性才能讓我們生存
01:56
A lot of this is driven驅動 by what's happening事件 in technology技術.
37
101000
3000
這樣的發展大部分起因於科技
01:59
There have been huge巨大 leaps飛躍. There will be a million-fold百萬倍 improvement起色
38
104000
3000
科技日新月異 以後只會發展更快
02:02
in what you can get for the same相同 price價錢
39
107000
2000
付出同樣的成本 資訊處裡的速度
02:04
in computing計算 by 2030.
40
109000
2000
在2030年會快100萬倍
02:06
That's what the experience經驗 of the last 20 years年份 has been.
41
111000
2000
這是過去20年的經驗
02:08
It will continue繼續.
42
113000
2000
這種趨勢還會持續下去
02:10
Our computers電腦, our systems系統 will be as primitive原始
43
115000
3000
未來 今天的電腦系統 會顯得粗糙
02:13
as the Apollo's阿波羅的 are for today今天.
44
118000
2000
會像今天看阿波羅太空梭一樣
02:15
Our mobile移動 phones手機 are more powerful強大 than the total Apollo阿波羅 space空間 engine發動機.
45
120000
3000
現在的手機已經超越太空梭引擎
02:18
Our mobile移動 phones手機 are more powerful強大 than
46
123000
2000
還不只如此 現在的手機
02:20
some of the strongest最強 computers電腦 of 20 years年份 ago.
47
125000
2000
比20年前某些最強的電腦還強大
02:22
So what will this do?
48
127000
2000
這代表什麼?
02:24
It will create創建 huge巨大 opportunities機會 in technology技術.
49
129000
3000
無數機會有待科技業者開發
02:27
Miniaturization微型化 as well.
50
132000
2000
微型化也是一樣
02:29
There will be invisible無形 capacity容量. Invisible無形 capacity容量 in our bodies身體,
51
134000
3000
看不見的東西現在也充滿機會
02:32
in our brains大腦, and in the air空氣.
52
137000
2000
遍佈在人體、人腦和空氣中
02:34
This is a dust灰塵 mite on a nanoreplicananoreplica.
53
139000
3000
這隻塵蟎 是奈米科技的複製品
02:37
This sort分類 of ability能力 to do everything in new ways方法 unleashes解開 potential潛在,
54
142000
4000
老調新唱的能力 可以激發潛能
02:41
not least最小 in the area of medicine醫學.
55
146000
2000
在醫學或任何其他領域都是如此
02:43
This is a stem cell細胞 that we've我們已經 developed發達 here in Oxford牛津,
56
148000
3000
這個幹細胞 是在牛津發展而成的
02:46
from an embryonic胚胎 stem cell細胞.
57
151000
2000
利用胚胎幹細胞
02:48
We can develop發展 any part部分 of the body身體.
58
153000
2000
可以培育出身體的任何部位
02:50
Increasingly日益, over time, this will be possible可能 from our own擁有 skin皮膚 --
59
155000
3000
以後 我們可以用自己的皮膚
02:53
able能夠 to replicate複製 parts部分 of the body身體.
60
158000
2000
來複製身體其他的部位
02:55
Fantastic奇妙 potential潛在 for regenerative再生 medicine醫學.
61
160000
2000
這是再生醫學亟待開發的領域
02:57
I don't think there will be a Special特別 Olympics奧運會 long after 2030,
62
162000
4000
身障奧運會2030年之後可能停辦
03:01
because of this capacity容量 to regenerate再生 parts部分 of the body身體.
63
166000
3000
因為任何生理上的損傷都能修復
03:04
But the question is, "Who will have it?"
64
169000
2000
但問題是「誰能享有這一切?」
03:06
The other major重大的 development發展 is going to be
65
171000
2000
另一個重要發展
03:08
in the area of what can happen發生 in genetics遺傳學.
66
173000
2000
是基因領域的發展
03:10
The capacity容量 to create創建, as this mouse老鼠 has been genetically基因 modified改性,
67
175000
6000
我們有能力把老鼠的基因改造 (比火車頭還厲害?超級鼠 vs 一般鼠)
03:16
something which哪一個 goes three times faster更快,
68
181000
2000
讓牠跑得比一般老鼠快三倍 (後面:一般鼠 前面:超級鼠) (時速:20公尺/分鐘)
03:18
lasts持續 for three times longer, we could produce生產,
69
183000
2000
壽命比一般老鼠長三倍
03:20
as this mouse老鼠 can, to the age年齡 of our equivalent當量 of 80 years年份,
70
185000
4000
活到相當於人類80歲的年齡
03:24
using運用 about the same相同 amount of food餐飲.
71
189000
3000
卻只要用同樣份量的食物餵養 (一般鼠出局)
03:27
But will this only be available可得到 for the super rich豐富,
72
192000
2000
(總距離:0.2公里) 但是 能享受這些益處的
03:29
for those that can afford給予 it? Are we headed當家 for a new eugenics優生學?
73
194000
3000
只有富人嗎? 這是新的優生學嗎?
03:32
Will only those that are able能夠 to afford給予 it
74
197000
3000
只有那些負擔得起的人
03:35
be able能夠 to be this super race種族 of the future未來?
75
200000
3000
能在未來成為超級種族嗎?(一小時後 超級鼠耐力依舊...)
03:38
(Laughter笑聲)
76
203000
1000
(笑聲)
03:39
So the big question for us is,
77
204000
2000
所以當前最大的問題是
03:41
"How do we manage管理 this technological技術性 change更改?"
78
206000
2000
「我們如何因應科技上的改變?」
03:43
How do we ensure確保 that it creates創建
79
208000
2000
我們如何確保 在未來
03:45
a more inclusive包括的 technology技術,
80
210000
2000
能有人人可利用的科技
03:47
a technology技術 which哪一個 means手段
81
212000
3000
這樣的科技
03:50
that not only as we grow增長 older舊的,
82
215000
2000
不只在我們年歲漸長時 (人口老化是歐洲的最大問題)
03:52
that we can also grow增長 wiser聰明, and that we're able能夠 to support支持
83
217000
2000
讓我們更有智慧 也讓我們有能力
03:54
the populations人群 of the future未來?
84
219000
2000
扶養未來的人口
03:56
One of the most dramatic戲劇性 manifestations表現 of these improvements改進
85
221000
3000
眾多進步中 最顯著的例子
03:59
will be moving移動 from population人口 pyramids金字塔
86
224000
2000
就是人口金字塔 (1950到2030年義大利人口結構圖)
04:01
to what we might威力 term術語 population人口 coffins棺材.
87
226000
3000
可能會變成所謂的人口棺材
04:04
There is unlikely不會 to be a pension養老金
88
229000
2000
退休金或是退休年齡
04:06
or a retirement退休 age年齡 in 2030.
89
231000
3000
在2030年都可能不復存在
04:09
These will be redundant concepts概念. And this isn't only something of the West西.
90
234000
3000
這些觀念 東西方都覺得不合時宜
04:12
The most dramatic戲劇性 changes變化 will be the skyscraper摩天大樓
91
237000
3000
最戲劇的改變是 (1970至2030年 中國人口結構圖)
04:15
type類型 of new pyramids金字塔
92
240000
2000
摩天大樓式的新金字塔
04:17
that will take place地點 in China中國 and in many許多 other countries國家.
93
242000
3000
在中國跟其他許多國家出現
04:20
So forget忘記 about retirements退休 if you're young年輕.
94
245000
2000
因此別期待退休了 年輕人
04:22
Forget忘記 about pensions養老金. Think about life and where it's going to be going.
95
247000
3000
別指望退休金 多想想人生的方向
04:25
Of course課程, migration移民 will become成為 even more important重要.
96
250000
3000
當然 移民會變得更重要
04:28
The war戰爭 on talent天賦, the need to attract吸引 people
97
253000
2000
人才爭奪戰中 網羅的對象
04:30
at all skill技能 ranges範圍,
98
255000
2000
各種專長的人才都包括
04:32
to push us around in our wheelchairs輪椅,
99
257000
2000
需要推輪椅的看護
04:34
but also to drive駕駛 our economies經濟. Our innovation革新 will be vital重要.
100
259000
3000
也需要經濟導航者。創意將是關鍵
04:37
The employment僱用 in the rich豐富 countries國家
101
262000
2000
就業狀況 在富裕國家 (就業人口預測)
04:39
will go down from about 800
102
264000
2000
會從8億人
04:41
to about 700 million百萬 of these people.
103
266000
2000
降到7億人
04:43
This would imply意味著 a massive大規模的 leap飛躍 in migration移民.
104
268000
2000
這表示移民人數會大增
04:45
So the concerns關注, the xenophobic排外 concerns關注 of today今天,
105
270000
3000
所以排外人士
04:48
of migration移民, will be turned轉身 on their head,
106
273000
2000
對移民的擔憂 必須改變
04:50
as we search搜索 for people to help us sort分類 out
107
275000
3000
因為我們需要人力 來解決
04:53
our pensions養老金 and our economies經濟 in the future未來.
108
278000
2000
退休金以及未來經濟的問題
04:55
And then, the systemic系統的 risks風險.
109
280000
2000
再來 是系統性風險
04:57
We understand理解 that these will become成為 much more virulent有毒,
110
282000
3000
我們了解 這些風險將會日益嚴重
05:00
that what we see today今天
111
285000
2000
今天看到的
05:02
is this interweaving交織 of societies社會, of systems系統,
112
287000
3000
是息息相關的社會體系
05:05
fastened固定 by technologies技術 and hastened趕緊 by just-in-time剛剛在時間 management管理 systems系統.
113
290000
5000
透過科技相連 經由管理加強整合
05:10
Small levels水平 of stock股票 push resilience彈性 into other people's人們 responsibility責任.
114
295000
5000
自掃門前雪 只會讓大局無人主持
05:15
The collapse坍方 in biodiversity生物多樣性,
115
300000
2000
生物多樣性遭破壞
05:17
climate氣候 change更改, pandemics流行病, financial金融 crises危機:
116
302000
3000
氣候變遷、流行疾病與金融風暴
05:20
these will be the currency貨幣 that we will think about.
117
305000
3000
都是大局中不容小覷的影響因素
05:23
And so a new awareness意識 will have to arise出現,
118
308000
2000
因此我們要有全新的體悟
05:25
of how we deal合同 with these, how we mobilize動員 ourselves我們自己,
119
310000
3000
學習如何處理問題 如何動員人力
05:28
in a new way, and come together一起 as a community社區
120
313000
3000
用新方法 而且要通力合作
05:31
to manage管理 systemic系統的 risk風險.
121
316000
2000
來管理系統性風險
05:33
It's going to require要求 innovation革新.
122
318000
2000
這需要創意
05:35
It's going to require要求 an understanding理解 that the glory榮耀 of globalization全球化
123
320000
4000
需要理解 全球化的成果
05:39
could also be its downfall倒台.
124
324000
2000
也可能使它垮臺
05:41
This could be our best最好 century世紀 ever because of the achievements成就,
125
326000
3000
21世紀可以是盛世 因為成就輝煌
05:44
or it could be our worst最差.
126
329000
2000
也可能是最糟糕的世紀
05:46
And of course課程 we need to worry擔心 about the individuals個人,
127
331000
2000
當然 我們不能忽略個人
05:48
particularly尤其 the individuals個人 that feel that they've他們已經
128
333000
2000
尤其是那些
05:50
been left out in one way or another另一個.
129
335000
2000
覺得被遺棄的人
05:52
An individual個人, for the first time in the history歷史 of humanity人性,
130
337000
3000
在人類歷史上 (生物性危險物品)
05:55
will have the capacity容量, by 2030,
131
340000
2000
2030年 個人將首度有能力
05:57
to destroy破壞 the planet行星, to wreck破壞 everything,
132
342000
3000
毀滅地球 破壞一切
06:00
through通過 the creation創建, for example, of a biopathogenbiopathogen.
133
345000
3000
比如說 利用新創造的生物病原
06:03
How do we begin開始 to weave編織 these tapestries掛毯 together一起?
134
348000
2000
我們要如何把這些片段連接起來?
06:05
How do we think about complex複雜 systems系統 in new ways方法?
135
350000
3000
如何用新思維檢視複雜的系统?
06:08
That will be the challenge挑戰 of the scholars學者,
136
353000
2000
這個挑戰 不只學者們首當其衝
06:10
and of all of us engaged訂婚 in thinking思維 about the future未來.
137
355000
3000
也是所有關心未來的人要思考的
06:13
The rest休息 of our lives生活 will be in the future未來. We need to prepare準備 for it now.
138
358000
3000
面對未來 我們要及早準備
06:16
We need to understand理解 that the governance治理 structure結構體 in the world世界 is fossilized化石.
139
361000
3000
世界的治理架構已經陳腐過時 (誰來治理?)
06:19
It cannot不能 begin開始 to cope應付 with the challenges挑戰 that this will bring帶來.
140
364000
4000
無法應付全球化帶來的挑戰
06:23
We have to develop發展 a new way of managing管理的 the planet行星,
141
368000
3000
我們必須找出新方法來管理地球
06:26
collectively, through通過 collective集體 wisdom智慧.
142
371000
2000
同心協力 集思廣益
06:28
We know, and I know from my own擁有 experience經驗,
143
373000
2000
你我都明白 經驗告訴我們
06:30
that amazing驚人 things can happen發生,
144
375000
2000
奇蹟會發生
06:32
when individuals個人 and societies社會 come together一起
145
377000
2000
如果個人和社會都決心
06:34
to change更改 their future未來.
146
379000
2000
改變他們的未來
06:36
I left South Africa非洲, and 15 years年份 later後來,
147
381000
2000
我離開南非15年後 (認為非洲民族議會將接管南非的是癡人說夢)
06:38
after thinking思維 I would never go back,
148
383000
2000
改變原本絕不再回去的決定 (1987年柴契爾夫人發言)
06:40
I had the privilege特權 and the honor榮譽 to work in the government政府 of Nelson納爾遜 Mandela曼德拉.
149
385000
3000
很榮幸地成為曼德拉政府的一員
06:43
This was a miracle奇蹟. We can create創建 miracles奇蹟,
150
388000
2000
這就是奇蹟 我們可以創造奇蹟
06:45
collectively, in our lifetime一生.
151
390000
2000
同心協力 在有生之年親見成果
06:47
It is vital重要 that we do so.
152
392000
2000
這樣的努力是改變未來的關鍵 (2030年必知的六大議題)
06:49
It is vital重要 that the ideas思路 that are nurtured培育 in TEDTED,
153
394000
2000
眾多講者在TED分享的想法
06:51
that the ideas思路 that we think about
154
396000
2000
我們自己腦袋裡的想法
06:53
look forward前鋒, and make sure that this will be the most glorious輝煌 century世紀,
155
398000
3000
都是期盼 盼望21世紀是光榮盛世
06:56
and not one of eco-disaster生態災難 and eco-collapse生態崩潰.
156
401000
3000
而不是生靈塗炭的黑暗世紀
06:59
Thank you. (Applause掌聲)
157
404000
2000
謝謝各位 (掌聲)
Translated by Dariush Robertson
Reviewed by Michelle Fan

▲Back to top

ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Ian Goldin - Economist, development visionary
Ian Goldin is director of the Oxford Martin School. Through the school's program of research, collaboration and education, he's powering new, cross-disciplinary thinking about global problems from the near and far future.

Why you should listen

Take a look at Ian Goldin's jam-packed CV and you'll see why he was appointed the first Director of Oxford University's new think tank-cum-research center, the 21st Century School, later renamed the Oxford Martin School: Goldin battled apartheid in his native South Africa, served as a development adviser to Nelson Mandela and, as the VP of the World Bank, led collaborations with the UN on global development strategy. He is the author of 19 books, including Exceptional People: How Migration Shaped our World and Will Define our Future (Princeton University Press, 2011), Divided Nations: Why global governance is failing and what we can do about it (Oxford University Press, 2013) and The Butterfly Defect: How globalization creates systemic risks, and what to do about it (Princeton University Press, 2014).

At Oxford Martin School, with a diverse brigade of over 200 top researchers from the hard and social sciences, Goldin is bringing fresh thinking to bear on the big, looming issues of the next 100 years: climate change, disruptive technological advancements, aging, bio-ethics, infectious disease, poverty, political conflict.

More profile about the speaker
Ian Goldin | Speaker | TED.com