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TEDGlobal 2009

Ian Goldin: Navigating our global future

伊恩‧戈爾丁:航向未來

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當全球化和技術的進步讓我們航向一個整合的未來的同時,伊恩•戈爾丁 警告大家可能得到不平均的利益。不過,他表示,如果我們能意識到這個危險,我們也許還可以改善大家的生活。

- Economist, development visionary
Ian Goldin is director of the Oxford Martin School. Through the school's program of research, collaboration and education, he's powering new, cross-disciplinary thinking about global problems from the near and far future. Full bio

The future, as we know it, is very unpredictable.
眾所皆知 未來難以預測
00:15
The best minds in the best institutions
頂尖研究機構中的佼佼者
00:19
generally get it wrong.
還常會犯錯
00:21
This is in technology. This is in the area of politics,
技術領域有過前例 (1958年IBM總裁:電腦根本沒有市場) 政治領域亦然
00:23
where pundits, the CIA, MI6 always get it wrong.
連智者、中情局、軍情六處 都會出錯 (07年政論名嘴:歐巴馬總統夢無望)
00:27
And it's clearly in the area of finance.
財經領域更是前科累累 (07年IMF: 整體風險前景似乎比過去半年低)
00:30
With institutions established to think about the future,
有些機構的工作是預測未來
00:33
the IMF, the BIS, the Financial Stability Forum, couldn't see what was coming.
但IMF,BIS或金融穩定論壇 都做不到
00:35
Over 20,000 economists
超過兩萬名經濟學家一起動腦
00:39
whose job it is, competitive entry to get there,
應該想得出辦法脫離困境
00:41
couldn't see what was happening.
卻看不清前路
00:43
Globalization is getting more complex.
全球化愈來愈複雜
00:45
And this change is getting more rapid.
越來越迅速
00:47
The future will be more unpredictable.
未來會變得更難以預料
00:49
Urbanization, integration,
都市化 區域整合 (全球化)
00:51
coming together, leads to a new renaissance.
將一起型塑新的文藝復興時代
00:53
It did this a thousand years ago.
就像一千多年前發生過的一樣
00:56
The last 40 years have been extraordinary times.
過去40年意義非凡
00:58
Life expectancy has gone up by about 25 years.
平均壽命提升了大約25年
01:01
It took from the Stone Age to achieve that.
這是從石器時代累積至今的成果
01:04
Income has gone up for a majority of the world's population,
收入提升 大部分人口生活改善
01:07
despite the population going up by about two billion people over this period.
但人口數同時也增加了20億
01:09
And illiteracy has gone down, from a half to about a quarter of the people on Earth.
文盲人數 從全人口的1/2下降至1/4
01:14
A huge opportunity, unleashing of new potential
這是難得的機會 充滿無限可能
01:17
for innovation, for development.
創新與發展皆大有可為
01:20
But there is an underbelly.
但全球化也有罩門
01:22
There are two Achilles' heels of globalization.
兩個致命的弱點
01:24
There is the Achilles' heel of growing inequality --
一個是日益嚴重的不平等 (國家間的不平等)
01:27
those that are left out, those that feel angry,
那些沒有享受到全球化益處的人
01:29
those that are not participating. Globalization
憤怒漸增 因為
01:32
has not been inclusive.
全球化的果實不是人人有份
01:34
The second Achilles' heel is complexity --
第二個是複雜性
01:36
a growing fragility, a growing brittleness.
全球體制越來越脆弱易碎
01:39
What happens in one place very quickly affects everything else.
遷一髮而動全局
01:43
This is a systemic risk, systemic shock.
這是系統性的風險
01:46
We've seen it in the financial crisis. We've seen it in the pandemic flu.
金融風暴席捲、流感蔓延 都是明證
01:49
It will become virulent and it's something we have to build resilience against.
唯有堅強的韌性才能讓我們生存
01:52
A lot of this is driven by what's happening in technology.
這樣的發展大部分起因於科技
01:56
There have been huge leaps. There will be a million-fold improvement
科技日新月異 以後只會發展更快
01:59
in what you can get for the same price
付出同樣的成本 資訊處裡的速度
02:02
in computing by 2030.
在2030年會快100萬倍
02:04
That's what the experience of the last 20 years has been.
這是過去20年的經驗
02:06
It will continue.
這種趨勢還會持續下去
02:08
Our computers, our systems will be as primitive
未來 今天的電腦系統 會顯得粗糙
02:10
as the Apollo's are for today.
會像今天看阿波羅太空梭一樣
02:13
Our mobile phones are more powerful than the total Apollo space engine.
現在的手機已經超越太空梭引擎
02:15
Our mobile phones are more powerful than
還不只如此 現在的手機
02:18
some of the strongest computers of 20 years ago.
比20年前某些最強的電腦還強大
02:20
So what will this do?
這代表什麼?
02:22
It will create huge opportunities in technology.
無數機會有待科技業者開發
02:24
Miniaturization as well.
微型化也是一樣
02:27
There will be invisible capacity. Invisible capacity in our bodies,
看不見的東西現在也充滿機會
02:29
in our brains, and in the air.
遍佈在人體、人腦和空氣中
02:32
This is a dust mite on a nanoreplica.
這隻塵蟎 是奈米科技的複製品
02:34
This sort of ability to do everything in new ways unleashes potential,
老調新唱的能力 可以激發潛能
02:37
not least in the area of medicine.
在醫學或任何其他領域都是如此
02:41
This is a stem cell that we've developed here in Oxford,
這個幹細胞 是在牛津發展而成的
02:43
from an embryonic stem cell.
利用胚胎幹細胞
02:46
We can develop any part of the body.
可以培育出身體的任何部位
02:48
Increasingly, over time, this will be possible from our own skin --
以後 我們可以用自己的皮膚
02:50
able to replicate parts of the body.
來複製身體其他的部位
02:53
Fantastic potential for regenerative medicine.
這是再生醫學亟待開發的領域
02:55
I don't think there will be a Special Olympics long after 2030,
身障奧運會2030年之後可能停辦
02:57
because of this capacity to regenerate parts of the body.
因為任何生理上的損傷都能修復
03:01
But the question is, "Who will have it?"
但問題是「誰能享有這一切?」
03:04
The other major development is going to be
另一個重要發展
03:06
in the area of what can happen in genetics.
是基因領域的發展
03:08
The capacity to create, as this mouse has been genetically modified,
我們有能力把老鼠的基因改造 (比火車頭還厲害?超級鼠 vs 一般鼠)
03:10
something which goes three times faster,
讓牠跑得比一般老鼠快三倍 (後面:一般鼠 前面:超級鼠) (時速:20公尺/分鐘)
03:16
lasts for three times longer, we could produce,
壽命比一般老鼠長三倍
03:18
as this mouse can, to the age of our equivalent of 80 years,
活到相當於人類80歲的年齡
03:20
using about the same amount of food.
卻只要用同樣份量的食物餵養 (一般鼠出局)
03:24
But will this only be available for the super rich,
(總距離:0.2公里) 但是 能享受這些益處的
03:27
for those that can afford it? Are we headed for a new eugenics?
只有富人嗎? 這是新的優生學嗎?
03:29
Will only those that are able to afford it
只有那些負擔得起的人
03:32
be able to be this super race of the future?
能在未來成為超級種族嗎?(一小時後 超級鼠耐力依舊...)
03:35
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
03:38
So the big question for us is,
所以當前最大的問題是
03:39
"How do we manage this technological change?"
「我們如何因應科技上的改變?」
03:41
How do we ensure that it creates
我們如何確保 在未來
03:43
a more inclusive technology,
能有人人可利用的科技
03:45
a technology which means
這樣的科技
03:47
that not only as we grow older,
不只在我們年歲漸長時 (人口老化是歐洲的最大問題)
03:50
that we can also grow wiser, and that we're able to support
讓我們更有智慧 也讓我們有能力
03:52
the populations of the future?
扶養未來的人口
03:54
One of the most dramatic manifestations of these improvements
眾多進步中 最顯著的例子
03:56
will be moving from population pyramids
就是人口金字塔 (1950到2030年義大利人口結構圖)
03:59
to what we might term population coffins.
可能會變成所謂的人口棺材
04:01
There is unlikely to be a pension
退休金或是退休年齡
04:04
or a retirement age in 2030.
在2030年都可能不復存在
04:06
These will be redundant concepts. And this isn't only something of the West.
這些觀念 東西方都覺得不合時宜
04:09
The most dramatic changes will be the skyscraper
最戲劇的改變是 (1970至2030年 中國人口結構圖)
04:12
type of new pyramids
摩天大樓式的新金字塔
04:15
that will take place in China and in many other countries.
在中國跟其他許多國家出現
04:17
So forget about retirements if you're young.
因此別期待退休了 年輕人
04:20
Forget about pensions. Think about life and where it's going to be going.
別指望退休金 多想想人生的方向
04:22
Of course, migration will become even more important.
當然 移民會變得更重要
04:25
The war on talent, the need to attract people
人才爭奪戰中 網羅的對象
04:28
at all skill ranges,
各種專長的人才都包括
04:30
to push us around in our wheelchairs,
需要推輪椅的看護
04:32
but also to drive our economies. Our innovation will be vital.
也需要經濟導航者。創意將是關鍵
04:34
The employment in the rich countries
就業狀況 在富裕國家 (就業人口預測)
04:37
will go down from about 800
會從8億人
04:39
to about 700 million of these people.
降到7億人
04:41
This would imply a massive leap in migration.
這表示移民人數會大增
04:43
So the concerns, the xenophobic concerns of today,
所以排外人士
04:45
of migration, will be turned on their head,
對移民的擔憂 必須改變
04:48
as we search for people to help us sort out
因為我們需要人力 來解決
04:50
our pensions and our economies in the future.
退休金以及未來經濟的問題
04:53
And then, the systemic risks.
再來 是系統性風險
04:55
We understand that these will become much more virulent,
我們了解 這些風險將會日益嚴重
04:57
that what we see today
今天看到的
05:00
is this interweaving of societies, of systems,
是息息相關的社會體系
05:02
fastened by technologies and hastened by just-in-time management systems.
透過科技相連 經由管理加強整合
05:05
Small levels of stock push resilience into other people's responsibility.
自掃門前雪 只會讓大局無人主持
05:10
The collapse in biodiversity,
生物多樣性遭破壞
05:15
climate change, pandemics, financial crises:
氣候變遷、流行疾病與金融風暴
05:17
these will be the currency that we will think about.
都是大局中不容小覷的影響因素
05:20
And so a new awareness will have to arise,
因此我們要有全新的體悟
05:23
of how we deal with these, how we mobilize ourselves,
學習如何處理問題 如何動員人力
05:25
in a new way, and come together as a community
用新方法 而且要通力合作
05:28
to manage systemic risk.
來管理系統性風險
05:31
It's going to require innovation.
這需要創意
05:33
It's going to require an understanding that the glory of globalization
需要理解 全球化的成果
05:35
could also be its downfall.
也可能使它垮臺
05:39
This could be our best century ever because of the achievements,
21世紀可以是盛世 因為成就輝煌
05:41
or it could be our worst.
也可能是最糟糕的世紀
05:44
And of course we need to worry about the individuals,
當然 我們不能忽略個人
05:46
particularly the individuals that feel that they've
尤其是那些
05:48
been left out in one way or another.
覺得被遺棄的人
05:50
An individual, for the first time in the history of humanity,
在人類歷史上 (生物性危險物品)
05:52
will have the capacity, by 2030,
2030年 個人將首度有能力
05:55
to destroy the planet, to wreck everything,
毀滅地球 破壞一切
05:57
through the creation, for example, of a biopathogen.
比如說 利用新創造的生物病原
06:00
How do we begin to weave these tapestries together?
我們要如何把這些片段連接起來?
06:03
How do we think about complex systems in new ways?
如何用新思維檢視複雜的系统?
06:05
That will be the challenge of the scholars,
這個挑戰 不只學者們首當其衝
06:08
and of all of us engaged in thinking about the future.
也是所有關心未來的人要思考的
06:10
The rest of our lives will be in the future. We need to prepare for it now.
面對未來 我們要及早準備
06:13
We need to understand that the governance structure in the world is fossilized.
世界的治理架構已經陳腐過時 (誰來治理?)
06:16
It cannot begin to cope with the challenges that this will bring.
無法應付全球化帶來的挑戰
06:19
We have to develop a new way of managing the planet,
我們必須找出新方法來管理地球
06:23
collectively, through collective wisdom.
同心協力 集思廣益
06:26
We know, and I know from my own experience,
你我都明白 經驗告訴我們
06:28
that amazing things can happen,
奇蹟會發生
06:30
when individuals and societies come together
如果個人和社會都決心
06:32
to change their future.
改變他們的未來
06:34
I left South Africa, and 15 years later,
我離開南非15年後 (認為非洲民族議會將接管南非的是癡人說夢)
06:36
after thinking I would never go back,
改變原本絕不再回去的決定 (1987年柴契爾夫人發言)
06:38
I had the privilege and the honor to work in the government of Nelson Mandela.
很榮幸地成為曼德拉政府的一員
06:40
This was a miracle. We can create miracles,
這就是奇蹟 我們可以創造奇蹟
06:43
collectively, in our lifetime.
同心協力 在有生之年親見成果
06:45
It is vital that we do so.
這樣的努力是改變未來的關鍵 (2030年必知的六大議題)
06:47
It is vital that the ideas that are nurtured in TED,
眾多講者在TED分享的想法
06:49
that the ideas that we think about
我們自己腦袋裡的想法
06:51
look forward, and make sure that this will be the most glorious century,
都是期盼 盼望21世紀是光榮盛世
06:53
and not one of eco-disaster and eco-collapse.
而不是生靈塗炭的黑暗世紀
06:56
Thank you. (Applause)
謝謝各位 (掌聲)
06:59
Translated by Dariush Robertson
Reviewed by Michelle Fan

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About the speaker:

Ian Goldin - Economist, development visionary
Ian Goldin is director of the Oxford Martin School. Through the school's program of research, collaboration and education, he's powering new, cross-disciplinary thinking about global problems from the near and far future.

Why you should listen

Take a look at Ian Goldin's jam-packed CV and you'll see why he was appointed the first Director of Oxford University's new think tank-cum-research center, the 21st Century School, later renamed the Oxford Martin School: Goldin battled apartheid in his native South Africa, served as a development adviser to Nelson Mandela and, as the VP of the World Bank, led collaborations with the UN on global development strategy. He is the author of 19 books, including Exceptional People: How Migration Shaped our World and Will Define our Future (Princeton University Press, 2011), Divided Nations: Why global governance is failing and what we can do about it (Oxford University Press, 2013) and The Butterfly Defect: How globalization creates systemic risks, and what to do about it (Princeton University Press, 2014).

At Oxford Martin School, with a diverse brigade of over 200 top researchers from the hard and social sciences, Goldin is bringing fresh thinking to bear on the big, looming issues of the next 100 years: climate change, disruptive technological advancements, aging, bio-ethics, infectious disease, poverty, political conflict.

More profile about the speaker
Ian Goldin | Speaker | TED.com