TEDGlobal 2009
Ian Goldin: Navigating our global future
Ian Goldin: Navigacija kroz našu globalnu budućnost
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Dok nas globalizacija i tehnološki napredak vrtoglavo vuku k integriranoj budućnosti, Ian Goldin upozorava da možda neće svi ljudi imati jednaku korist. Ali, kaže, ako prepoznamo tu opasnost, još možemo ostvariti mogućnost boljega života za svakoga.
Ian Goldin - Economist, development visionary
Ian Goldin is director of the Oxford Martin School. Through the school's program of research, collaboration and education, he's powering new, cross-disciplinary thinking about global problems from the near and far future. Full bio
Ian Goldin is director of the Oxford Martin School. Through the school's program of research, collaboration and education, he's powering new, cross-disciplinary thinking about global problems from the near and far future. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
The future, as we know it, is very unpredictable.
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Budućnost je, kao što znamo, vrlo nepredvidiva.
00:19
The best minds in the best institutions
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Najbolji umovi u najboljim institucijama
00:21
generally get it wrong.
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obično pogriješe.
00:23
This is in technology. This is in the area of politics,
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Događa se u tehnologiji. Događa se u politici,
00:27
where pundits, the CIA, MI6 always get it wrong.
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gdje autoriteti, CIA, MI6 uvijek pogriješe.
00:30
And it's clearly in the area of finance.
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A isto je očigledno i na području financija.
00:33
With institutions established to think about the future,
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Ni s institucijama uspostavljenim da razmišljaju o budućnosti,
00:35
the IMF, the BIS, the Financial Stability Forum, couldn't see what was coming.
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MMF, BIS, Forum za financijsku stabilnost nisu predvidjeli što dolazi.
00:39
Over 20,000 economists
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Preko 20.000 ekonomista
00:41
whose job it is, competitive entry to get there,
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kojima je to posao, a velika je konkurencija među njima,
00:43
couldn't see what was happening.
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nisu vidjeli što se događa.
00:45
Globalization is getting more complex.
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Globalizacija postaje sve složenija.
00:47
And this change is getting more rapid.
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I ta promjena postaje brža.
00:49
The future will be more unpredictable.
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Budućnost će biti još nepredvidivija.
00:51
Urbanization, integration,
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Urbanizacija, integracija,
00:53
coming together, leads to a new renaissance.
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združivanje, vode k novoj renesansi.
00:56
It did this a thousand years ago.
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To se dogodilo prije tisuću godina.
00:58
The last 40 years have been extraordinary times.
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Posljednjih 40 godina su bile izuzetno vrijeme.
01:01
Life expectancy has gone up by about 25 years.
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Očekivano trajanje života poraslo je za oko 25 godina.
01:04
It took from the Stone Age to achieve that.
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Za takav porast trebalo je čekati od kamenog doba.
01:07
Income has gone up for a majority of the world's population,
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Prihod se povećao za većinu svjetskog stanovništva,
01:09
despite the population going up by about two billion people over this period.
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usprkos rastu stanovništva za neke dvije milijarde ljudi tijekom tog razdoblja.
01:14
And illiteracy has gone down, from a half to about a quarter of the people on Earth.
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Nepismenost se smanjila, s polovice na otprilike četvrtinu svjetskog stanovništva.
01:17
A huge opportunity, unleashing of new potential
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Ogromna prilika koja oslobađa novi potencijal
01:20
for innovation, for development.
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za inovacije, za razvoj.
01:22
But there is an underbelly.
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Ali postoji i naličje.
01:24
There are two Achilles' heels of globalization.
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Globalizacija ima dvije ahilove pete.
01:27
There is the Achilles' heel of growing inequality --
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Jedna je ahilova peta rastuća nejednakost.
01:29
those that are left out, those that feel angry,
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Oni koji su isključeni, oni koji su ljutiti,
01:32
those that are not participating. Globalization
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oni koji ne sudjeluju. Globalizacija
01:34
has not been inclusive.
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ne uključuje svakoga.
01:36
The second Achilles' heel is complexity --
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Druga ahilova peta je složenost.
01:39
a growing fragility, a growing brittleness.
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Rastuća lomljivost, rastuća krhkost.
01:43
What happens in one place very quickly affects everything else.
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Ono što se događa na jednom mjestu vrlo brzo utječe na sve drugo.
01:46
This is a systemic risk, systemic shock.
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Ovo je sistemski rizik, sistemski šok.
01:49
We've seen it in the financial crisis. We've seen it in the pandemic flu.
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To smo vidjeli kod financijske krize. I kod pandemijske gripe.
01:52
It will become virulent and it's something we have to build resilience against.
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Ovo će se raširiti i na to moramo izgraditi otpornost.
01:56
A lot of this is driven by what's happening in technology.
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Mnogo toga je potaknuto događajima u tehnologiji.
01:59
There have been huge leaps. There will be a million-fold improvement
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Imamo ogromne skokove. Poboljšanje onoga što ćete moći
02:02
in what you can get for the same price
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dobiti za istu cijenu kad je riječ o računalima
02:04
in computing by 2030.
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porast će milijun puta do 2030.
02:06
That's what the experience of the last 20 years has been.
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To nam kaže iskustvo proteklih 20 godina.
02:08
It will continue.
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To će se nastaviti.
02:10
Our computers, our systems will be as primitive
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Naša računala, naši sustavi će biti jednako primitivni
02:13
as the Apollo's are for today.
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kako Apollo izgleda danas.
02:15
Our mobile phones are more powerful than the total Apollo space engine.
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Naši mobiteli su moćniji nego cjelokupni Apollov svemirski pogon.
02:18
Our mobile phones are more powerful than
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Naši mobiteli su moćniji
02:20
some of the strongest computers of 20 years ago.
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od nekih od najjačih računala otprije 20 godina.
02:22
So what will this do?
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Pa što će to prouzročiti?
02:24
It will create huge opportunities in technology.
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Stvorit će ogromne prilike u tehnologiji.
02:27
Miniaturization as well.
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I minijaturizaciji.
02:29
There will be invisible capacity. Invisible capacity in our bodies,
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Postojat će nevidljivi kapaciteti. Nevidljivi kapaciteti u našem tijelu,
02:32
in our brains, and in the air.
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u našem mozgu, u zraku.
02:34
This is a dust mite on a nanoreplica.
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To je uš nanoreplike.
02:37
This sort of ability to do everything in new ways unleashes potential,
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Sposobnost da sve radimo na novi način oslobađa potencijal,
02:41
not least in the area of medicine.
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u medicini ne manje nego drugdje.
02:43
This is a stem cell that we've developed here in Oxford,
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Ovo je matična stanica koju smo razvili u Oxfordu,
02:46
from an embryonic stem cell.
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od matične stanice zametka.
02:48
We can develop any part of the body.
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Možemo razviti bilo koji dio tijela.
02:50
Increasingly, over time, this will be possible from our own skin --
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Sve više, tijekom vremena, ovo će biti moguće od naše vlastite kože --
02:53
able to replicate parts of the body.
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moći ćemo stvoriti replike dijelova tijela.
02:55
Fantastic potential for regenerative medicine.
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Fantastični potencijal za regenerativnu medicinu.
02:57
I don't think there will be a Special Olympics long after 2030,
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Ne mislim da će specijalne Olimpijske igre postojati dugo nakon 2030.,
03:01
because of this capacity to regenerate parts of the body.
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zbog tog kapaciteta za regeneriranje dijelova tijela.
03:04
But the question is, "Who will have it?"
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No pitanje je, „Tko će ih dobiti?“
03:06
The other major development is going to be
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Drugi veliki napredak će biti
03:08
in the area of what can happen in genetics.
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na području genetike.
03:10
The capacity to create, as this mouse has been genetically modified,
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Sposobnost da stvorimo, kao ovaj genetski modificirani miš,
03:16
something which goes three times faster,
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nešto što se kreće tri puta brže,
03:18
lasts for three times longer, we could produce,
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traje tri puta dulje, mogli bismo smanjiti,
03:20
as this mouse can, to the age of our equivalent of 80 years,
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poput ovog miša, na dob u našem ekvivalentu od 80 godina,
03:24
using about the same amount of food.
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trošeći otprilike jednaku količinu hrane.
03:27
But will this only be available for the super rich,
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Ali hoće li to biti dostupno jedino super bogatima,
03:29
for those that can afford it? Are we headed for a new eugenics?
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onima koji si to mogu priuštiti? Idemo li prema novoj eugenici?
03:32
Will only those that are able to afford it
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Hoće li samo oni koji si to mogu priuštiti
03:35
be able to be this super race of the future?
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moći biti ta super rasa budućnosti?
03:38
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
03:39
So the big question for us is,
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Dakle, veliko je pitanje za nas,
03:41
"How do we manage this technological change?"
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"Kako upravljati ovom tehnološkom promjenom?"
03:43
How do we ensure that it creates
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Kako osigurati da donese
03:45
a more inclusive technology,
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tehnologiju koja uključuje više ljudi,
03:47
a technology which means
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tehnologiju koja znači
03:50
that not only as we grow older,
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ne samo da starimo,
03:52
that we can also grow wiser, and that we're able to support
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već i da postajemo mudriji i da smo u stanju uzdržavati
03:54
the populations of the future?
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stanovništvo budućnosti?
03:56
One of the most dramatic manifestations of these improvements
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Jedna od najdramatičnijih manifestacija ovih poboljšanja
03:59
will be moving from population pyramids
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će biti pomicanje od populacijskih piramida,
04:01
to what we might term population coffins.
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do nečega što možemo nazvati populacijskim lijesovima.
04:04
There is unlikely to be a pension
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Nije vjerojatno da će postojati mirovina
04:06
or a retirement age in 2030.
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ili dob za mirovinu u godini 2030.
04:09
These will be redundant concepts. And this isn't only something of the West.
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To će biti zastarjeli koncepti. I to nije nešto samo na Zapadu.
04:12
The most dramatic changes will be the skyscraper
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Najdramatičnije promjene će biti
04:15
type of new pyramids
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nove piramide tipa nebodera,
04:17
that will take place in China and in many other countries.
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koji će se pojaviti u Kini i mnogim drugim zemljama.
04:20
So forget about retirements if you're young.
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Pa zaboravite na umirovljenje ako ste mladi.
04:22
Forget about pensions. Think about life and where it's going to be going.
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Zaboravite mirovine. Razmišljajte o životu i o tome kamo će ići.
04:25
Of course, migration will become even more important.
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Naravno, migracije će postati još važnije.
04:28
The war on talent, the need to attract people
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Rat za nadarene, potreba za privlačenjem ljudi
04:30
at all skill ranges,
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s vještinama svih razina,
04:32
to push us around in our wheelchairs,
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neki da nas guraju u invalidskim kolicima,
04:34
but also to drive our economies. Our innovation will be vital.
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a neki da vode naše ekonomije. Inovacije će biti vitalne.
04:37
The employment in the rich countries
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Zaposlenost u bogatim zemljama
04:39
will go down from about 800
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će pasti s oko 800
04:41
to about 700 million of these people.
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na oko 700 milijuna ljudi.
04:43
This would imply a massive leap in migration.
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To implicira ogromni porast migracija.
04:45
So the concerns, the xenophobic concerns of today,
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Pa će se brige, ksenofobna zabrinutost današnjice,
04:48
of migration, will be turned on their head,
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brige oko migracija, okrenuti naglavačke,
04:50
as we search for people to help us sort out
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dok budemo u potrazi za ljudima koji će nam pomoći
04:53
our pensions and our economies in the future.
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urediti naše mirovine i naša gospodarstva u budućnosti.
04:55
And then, the systemic risks.
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A zatim, sistemski rizici.
04:57
We understand that these will become much more virulent,
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Razumijemo da će oni biti mnogo ozbiljniji,
05:00
that what we see today
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od ovih koje vidimo danas,
05:02
is this interweaving of societies, of systems,
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u ovom spletu društava, sustava,
05:05
fastened by technologies and hastened by just-in-time management systems.
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učvršćeni tehnologijom i uzbrzani just-in-time upravljačkim sustavima.
05:10
Small levels of stock push resilience into other people's responsibility.
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Niske razine zaliha prebacit će izdržljivost u odgovornost drugih ljudi.
05:15
The collapse in biodiversity,
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Slom bioraznolikosti,
05:17
climate change, pandemics, financial crises:
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klimatske promjene, pandemija, financijska kriza:
05:20
these will be the currency that we will think about.
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to će biti valuta o kojoj ćemo razmišljati.
05:23
And so a new awareness will have to arise,
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Pa će morati nastati nova svjesnost
05:25
of how we deal with these, how we mobilize ourselves,
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o tome kako ćemo se nositi s time, kako ćemo se mobilizirati,
05:28
in a new way, and come together as a community
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na nov način i okupiti se kao zajednica
05:31
to manage systemic risk.
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da bismo upravljali sistemskim rizikom.
05:33
It's going to require innovation.
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Trebat će inovacije.
05:35
It's going to require an understanding that the glory of globalization
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Trebat će razumijevanje da slava globalizacije
05:39
could also be its downfall.
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može značiti i njezin pad.
05:41
This could be our best century ever because of the achievements,
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Ovo bi moglo biti naše najbolje stoljeće ikada u smislu postignuća.
05:44
or it could be our worst.
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A moglo bi biti i naše najgore.
05:46
And of course we need to worry about the individuals,
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Naravno, moramo voditi brigu i o pojedincima.
05:48
particularly the individuals that feel that they've
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Naročito o pojednicima koji osjećaju
05:50
been left out in one way or another.
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da su zapostavljeni, na ovaj ili onaj način.
05:52
An individual, for the first time in the history of humanity,
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Pojedinac će prvi puta u povijesti čovječanstva
05:55
will have the capacity, by 2030,
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do 2030. imati kapacitet,
05:57
to destroy the planet, to wreck everything,
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razoriti planet, uništiti sve,
06:00
through the creation, for example, of a biopathogen.
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na primjer, stvarajući biopatogen.
06:03
How do we begin to weave these tapestries together?
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Kako uopće početi tkati ove tapiserije zajedno?
06:05
How do we think about complex systems in new ways?
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Kako razmišljati o složenim sustavima na nove načine?
06:08
That will be the challenge of the scholars,
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To će biti izazov za učenjake,
06:10
and of all of us engaged in thinking about the future.
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i za sve nas koji se bavimo razmišljanjem o budućnosti.
06:13
The rest of our lives will be in the future. We need to prepare for it now.
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Ostatak naših života će biti u budućnosti. Moramo se sada za to pripremiti.
06:16
We need to understand that the governance structure in the world is fossilized.
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Moramo razumjeti da je upravljačka struktura svijeta fosilizirana.
06:19
It cannot begin to cope with the challenges that this will bring.
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Nema se šanse nositi s izazovima koje će budućnost donijeti.
06:23
We have to develop a new way of managing the planet,
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Moramo razviti novi način upravljanja planetom,
06:26
collectively, through collective wisdom.
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zajednički, zajedničkom mudrošću.
06:28
We know, and I know from my own experience,
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Znamo, i ja znam, iz vlastitog iskustva,
06:30
that amazing things can happen,
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da se mogu dogoditi zapanjujuće stvari,
06:32
when individuals and societies come together
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kad se pojedinci i društva ujedine
06:34
to change their future.
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u promjeni njihove budućnosti.
06:36
I left South Africa, and 15 years later,
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Otišao sam iz Južne Afrike. I, 15 godina kasnije,
06:38
after thinking I would never go back,
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nakon što sam mislio da se nikada neću vratiti,
06:40
I had the privilege and the honor to work in the government of Nelson Mandela.
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imao sam privilegiju i čast raditi u vladi Nelsona Mandele.
06:43
This was a miracle. We can create miracles,
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To je bilo čudo. Možemo stvoriti čuda,
06:45
collectively, in our lifetime.
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zajednički, u našem životnom vijeku.
06:47
It is vital that we do so.
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Vitalno je važno da to učinimo.
06:49
It is vital that the ideas that are nurtured in TED,
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Vitalno je da ideje koje se njeguju na TED-u
06:51
that the ideas that we think about
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ideje o kojima razmišljamo,
06:53
look forward, and make sure that this will be the most glorious century,
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gledaju prema naprijed, i osiguraju da ovo bude najslavnije stoljeće,
06:56
and not one of eco-disaster and eco-collapse.
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a ne stoljeće eko-katastrofe, eko-sloma.
06:59
Thank you. (Applause)
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Hvala vam. (Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Ian Goldin - Economist, development visionaryIan Goldin is director of the Oxford Martin School. Through the school's program of research, collaboration and education, he's powering new, cross-disciplinary thinking about global problems from the near and far future.
Why you should listen
Take a look at Ian Goldin's jam-packed CV and you'll see why he was appointed the first Director of Oxford University's new think tank-cum-research center, the 21st Century School, later renamed the Oxford Martin School: Goldin battled apartheid in his native South Africa, served as a development adviser to Nelson Mandela and, as the VP of the World Bank, led collaborations with the UN on global development strategy. He is the author of 19 books, including Exceptional People: How Migration Shaped our World and Will Define our Future (Princeton University Press, 2011), Divided Nations: Why global governance is failing and what we can do about it (Oxford University Press, 2013) and The Butterfly Defect: How globalization creates systemic risks, and what to do about it (Princeton University Press, 2014).
At Oxford Martin School, with a diverse brigade of over 200 top researchers from the hard and social sciences, Goldin is bringing fresh thinking to bear on the big, looming issues of the next 100 years: climate change, disruptive technological advancements, aging, bio-ethics, infectious disease, poverty, political conflict.
Ian Goldin | Speaker | TED.com