TEDGlobal 2010
Matt Ridley: When ideas have sex
马特-瑞德里：让思想彼此交配
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在TEDGlobal2010的演讲中，作家马特-瑞德里认为，纵观人类的历史，人类进步的引擎是如何运转？不同想法是如何碰撞出新的想法？他认为，个人有多聪明不是很重要，协同合作的大脑能发挥多少才是至关重要的。
Matt Ridley - Rational optimist
Matt Ridley argues that, through history, the engine of human progress and prosperity has been, and is, "ideas having sex with each other." Full bio
Matt Ridley argues that, through history, the engine of human progress and prosperity has been, and is, "ideas having sex with each other." Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
When I was a student here in Oxford in the 1970s,
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1970年代，当我在牛津大学上学时，
00:19
the future of the world was bleak.
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全世界的未来是暗淡无光的。
00:22
The population explosion was unstoppable.
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“人口爆炸”危机是无法阻止的。
00:24
Global famine was inevitable.
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全球饥荒也无法避免。
00:26
A cancer epidemic caused by chemicals in the environment
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由化学物质引发的癌症蔓延下，
00:29
was going to shorten our lives.
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我们的寿命缩短了。
00:32
The acid rain was falling on the forests.
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酸雨侵蚀森林。
00:35
The desert was advancing by a mile or two a year.
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每年沙漠以1到2英里的速度扩张。
00:37
The oil was running out,
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我们也快用完了石油。
00:39
and a nuclear winter would finish us off.
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核冬天将终结我们人类。
00:42
None of those things happened,
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不过上面所说的其实都没有发生。
00:44
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
00:46
and astonishingly, if you look at what actually happened in my lifetime,
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令人惊奇的是，看看我有生之年到底发生了什么事，
00:49
the average per-capita income
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目前地球上，每个人的
00:52
of the average person on the planet,
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人均收入
00:54
in real terms, adjusted for inflation,
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以实质计算，经过通货膨胀的调整，
00:56
has tripled.
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已经增加了3倍。
00:58
Lifespan is up by 30 percent in my lifetime.
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我的寿命延长了30%。
01:01
Child mortality is down by two-thirds.
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幼儿死亡率下降了三分之二。
01:04
Per-capita food production
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人均食物生产
01:06
is up by a third.
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增加了三分之一。
01:08
And all this at a time when the population has doubled.
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所有这一切都发生在人口增加到两倍的时候。
01:11
How did we achieve that, whether you think it's a good thing or not?
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我们是如何做到的呢？你可曾想过这是好事或者是坏事？
01:13
How did we achieve that?
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我们到底怎样做到的呢？
01:15
How did we become
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人类是如何变成
01:17
the only species
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仅有的一个物种因人口众多
01:19
that becomes more prosperous
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反而变得更加
01:21
as it becomes more populous?
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繁荣昌盛？
01:23
The size of the blob in this graph represents the size of the population,
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这图表中有颜色线的粗细变化说明了人口的增长变化。
01:26
and the level of the graph
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图标水平坐标
01:28
represents GDP per capita.
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代表了人均国内生产总值。
01:30
I think to answer that question
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要回答上面的问题，
01:32
you need to understand
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各位得明白
01:34
how human beings bring together their brains
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人类是如何集思广益，
01:37
and enable their ideas to combine and recombine,
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使他们的思想相融合，再融合，
01:40
to meet and, indeed, to mate.
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彼此碰撞，甚至是相交配。
01:43
In other words, you need to understand
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换句话说，各位必须明白
01:45
how ideas have sex.
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思想是怎样交配的。
01:48
I want you to imagine
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大家来想象一下
01:50
how we got from making objects like this
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我们是怎样从制作这个物体手斧
01:53
to making objects like this.
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到制作了右边这个鼠标的东西。
01:56
These are both real objects.
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它们都是实物。
01:58
One is an Acheulean hand axe from half a million years ago
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一个是五十万年前直立人
02:00
of the kind made by Homo erectus.
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制作的阿舍利手斧。
02:03
The other is obviously a computer mouse.
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另一个明显是一个鼠标。
02:05
They're both exactly the same size and shape to an uncanny degree.
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两者完全一样的大小，真是不可思议的构造。
02:08
I've tried to work out which is bigger,
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我试着弄明白哪一个是比较大的，
02:11
and it's almost impossible.
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这基本上没什么区别。
02:13
And that's because they're both designed to fit the human hand.
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因为它们两者设计都是适用于人手。
02:15
They're both technologies. In the end, their similarity is not that interesting.
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两者都体现了科技。最后，他们的相似性不是很有趣。
02:18
It just tells you they were both designed to fit the human hand.
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这说明他们两者都适用于人手。
02:20
The differences are what interest me,
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让我感兴趣的是差异性。
02:22
because the one on the left was made to a pretty unvarying design
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因为大约1百万年--
02:25
for about a million years --
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从150万年前到
02:27
from one-and-a-half million years ago to half a million years ago.
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50万年前，左边的手斧基本没有做任何改变的设计。
02:30
Homo erectus made the same tool
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直立人为3万后代
02:33
for 30,000 generations.
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制造了这样的工具。
02:35
Of course there were a few changes,
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当然会稍有改变，
02:37
but tools changed slower than skeletons in those days.
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但在那时工具变化速度比骨骼进化要慢。
02:40
There was no progress, no innovation.
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所谓没有进步，没有创新。
02:42
It's an extraordinary phenomenon, but it's true.
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这是个特别的现象，但这是事实。
02:44
Whereas the object on the right is obsolete after five years.
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相反右边的鼠标五年后就会过时。
02:47
And there's another difference too,
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还有另一个区别是，
02:49
which is the object on the left is made from one substance.
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左边手斧是从一种物质制作出来的。
02:51
The object on the right is made from
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右边的鼠标是从
02:53
a confection of different substances,
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不同物质，
02:55
from silicon and metal and plastic and so on.
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从硅，金属到塑料等等制成的精美用品。
02:58
And more than that, it's a confection of different ideas,
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更重要的是，它是不同思想，
03:01
the idea of plastic, the idea of a laser,
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塑料的，激光的，
03:03
the idea of transistors.
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电晶体的碰撞想法后的创新。
03:05
They've all been combined together in this technology.
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所有思想相互结合的科技。
03:08
And it's this combination,
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这种结合
03:10
this cumulative technology, that intrigues me,
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和科技累积令我着迷。
03:13
because I think it's the secret to understanding
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我认为这其中的奥妙
03:16
what's happening in the world.
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可以了解这世界上要发生的事情。
03:18
My body's an accumulation of ideas too:
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我身体也是不同思想的聚焦，
03:21
the idea of skin cells, the idea of brain cells, the idea of liver cells.
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皮肤细胞的，脑细胞的，肝细胞的想法聚焦。
03:24
They've come together.
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它们协同作用。
03:26
How does evolution do cumulative, combinatorial things?
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进化是怎样累积和组合的呢？
03:29
Well, it uses sexual reproduction.
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通过有性生殖来进化的。
03:32
In an asexual species, if you get two different mutations in different creatures,
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在无形物种，如果用不同物种的不同突变，
03:35
a green one and a red one,
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一个绿的和一个红的，
03:37
then one has to be better than the other.
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那么一个要比另一个更能适应。
03:39
One goes extinct for the other to survive.
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1个会灭绝，另一个则生存下来。
03:41
But if you have a sexual species,
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但有性物种相交配，
03:43
then it's possible for an individual
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那么一个个体可以
03:45
to inherit both mutations
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从不同干系物种
03:47
from different lineages.
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两种突变。
03:49
So what sex does is it enables the individual
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所以性交配使得个体
03:52
to draw upon
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拥有
03:54
the genetic innovations of the whole species.
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整个物种的遗传基因。
03:57
It's not confined to its own lineage.
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不仅仅限于自己的支系。
03:59
What's the process that's having the same effect
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正如同性交配在生物进化上的作用一样，
04:01
in cultural evolution
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那么文化演变上起相同作用，
04:03
as sex is having in biological evolution?
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这种作用的过程是什么？
04:06
And I think the answer is exchange,
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我想答案是交换，
04:08
the habit of exchanging one thing for another.
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从一个物体交换另一个物体的习惯。
04:11
It's a unique human feature.
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这是人类独一无二的特点。
04:13
No other animal does it.
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其他的动物不这样。
04:15
You can teach them in the laboratory to do a little bit of exchange --
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我们可以教实验室的动物做一点点交换实验。
04:17
and indeed there's reciprocity in other animals --
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的确其他动物也有互惠关系。
04:19
But the exchange of one object for another never happens.
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但从一个物体到另一个物体的交换从没有发生过。
04:22
As Adam Smith said, "No man ever saw a dog
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正如亚当-斯密说过：“从没见过一条狗
04:24
make a fair exchange of a bone with another dog."
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与另一条狗公平交换骨头。”
04:27
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
04:30
You can have culture without exchange.
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没有交换的文化也存在。
04:32
You can have, as it were, asexual culture.
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换言之，无性文化。
04:34
Chimpanzees, killer whales, these kinds of creatures, they have culture.
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黑猩猩，逆戟鲸，像这些生物，它们都有自己的文化。
04:37
They teach each other traditions
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它们互相传授
04:39
which are handed down from parent to offspring.
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从父母到其子女幼儿流传下来的传统。
04:41
In this case, chimpanzees teaching each other
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在这种情况下，黑猩猩互相教
04:43
how to crack nuts with rocks.
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怎样用岩石砸碎坚果。
04:45
But the difference is
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但有所区别的是
04:47
that these cultures never expand, never grow,
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这些文化从来没有扩张，没有增强，
04:49
never accumulate, never become combinatorial,
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没有积累，也从来没有相结合过。
04:51
and the reason is because
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原因是因为
04:53
there is no sex, as it were,
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没有相交配文化，所谓，
04:55
there is no exchange of ideas.
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没有交换的思想文化。
04:57
Chimpanzee troops have different cultures in different troops.
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在不同的黑猩猩族群有不同的文化。
05:00
There's no exchange of ideas between them.
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在它们之间没有交换思想。
05:03
And why does exchange raise living standards?
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那么为什么交换会提高生活水准？
05:05
Well, the answer came from David Ricardo in 1817.
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正如1817年戴维-里卡多的答案。
05:08
And here is a Stone Age version of his story,
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尽管这是他的石器时代的版本故事，
05:10
although he told it in terms of trade between countries.
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但他用它来说明国家之间的贸易。
05:13
Adam takes four hours to make a spear and three hours to make an axe.
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亚当做一只矛用四小时，一个斧头用三个小时。
05:16
Oz takes one hour to make a spear and two hours to make an axe.
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奥兹做一只矛用一小时，一个斧头用两个小时。
05:19
So Oz is better at both spears and axes than Adam.
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所以奥兹比起亚当制造矛和斧头都要好。
05:22
He doesn't need Adam.
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他不需要亚当的帮忙。
05:24
He can make his own spears and axes.
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奥兹可以自己制造更多的矛和斧头。
05:26
Well no, because if you think about it,
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但不应该这样，假如你想想看，
05:28
if Oz makes two spears and Adam make two axes,
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如果奥兹制作2个矛，而亚当制作2个斧头，
05:30
and then they trade,
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然后他们交换做贸易，
05:32
then they will each have saved an hour of work.
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他们每一个都节约了1小时工时。
05:35
And the more they do this, the more true it's going to be,
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他们做得越熟练，这交换就越来越有意思。
05:38
because the more they do this, the better Adam is going to get at making axes
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因为做得越熟练，熟练工亚当更擅长做斧头，
05:41
and the better Oz is going to get at making spears.
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熟练工奥兹更擅长做矛。
05:43
So the gains from trade are only going to grow.
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这种贸易互惠变得更实质。
05:45
And this is one of the beauties of exchange,
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这是交换益处之一，
05:47
is it actually creates the momentum
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它实际上创造了
05:49
for more specialization,
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更加专业的契机，
05:51
which creates the momentum for more exchange and so on.
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也创造了更多交换等等类似的契机。
05:54
Adam and Oz both saved an hour of time.
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亚当和奥兹两者都节约了1小时工时。
05:56
That is prosperity, the saving of time
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节约时间
05:58
in satisfying your needs.
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来满足人们的需要，这就是成功。
06:01
Ask yourself how long you would have to work
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问问大家你们要工作多久，
06:03
to provide for yourself
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在晚上
06:06
an hour of reading light this evening to read a book by.
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才能点亮阅读灯1小时来读书。
06:09
If you had to start from scratch, let's say you go out into the countryside.
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如果你要从头开始，你到郊外去进行。
06:12
You find a sheep. You kill it. You get the fat out of it.
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你找到一只羊。你杀了它，得到羊脂肪。
06:14
You render it down. You make a candle, etc. etc.
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然后把羊脂肪熬成油，你制成了蜡烛，等等。
06:17
How long is it going to take you? Quite a long time.
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你要花费多久才能制成光？相当长的时间。
06:19
How long do you actually have to work
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如果按时下英国的平均工资计算，能有1小时的阅读灯光，
06:21
to earn an hour of reading light
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你到底要
06:23
if you're on the average wage in Britain today?
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工作多久呢？
06:25
And the answer is about half a second.
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答案是大约半秒钟。
06:28
Back in 1950,
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追溯到1950年，
06:30
you would have had to work for eight seconds on the average wage
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按平均工资算，你得工作8秒钟
06:32
to acquire that much light.
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得到1小时的光。
06:34
And that's seven and a half seconds of prosperity that you've gained
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你得多付出7秒半的工作时间。
06:37
since 1950, as it were,
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换言之，1950年以来，
06:39
because that's seven and a half seconds in which you can do something else,
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7秒半钟的时间，你可以做别的一些事。
06:42
or you can acquire another good or service.
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或者你可以换取别的产品或服务。
06:44
And back in 1880,
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再追溯到1880年，
06:46
it would have been 15 minutes
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平均工资算，人们要工作15分钟
06:48
to earn that amount of light on the average wage.
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才能挣得1小时的光。
06:50
Back in 1800,
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追溯到1800年，
06:52
you'd have had to work six hours
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你必须工作6小时，
06:54
to earn a candle that could burn for an hour.
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你才会有1个蜡烛，它能燃烧1小时。
06:57
In other words, the average person on the average wage
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换言之，在1800年，人均平均工资
06:59
could not afford a candle in 1800.
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负担不起1个蜡烛。
07:02
Go back to this image of the axe and the mouse,
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回到这幅手斧和鼠标的图片，
07:05
and ask yourself: "Who made them and for who?"
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大家曾问过自己：“谁制作了他们，为了谁制作的？”
07:08
The stone axe was made by someone for himself.
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某人为自己制作了石斧。
07:10
It was self-sufficiency.
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这是自备用的。
07:12
We call that poverty these days.
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我们称那些日子还很贫穷。
07:14
But the object on the right
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但是右边的鼠标
07:16
was made for me by other people.
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是其他人为了我而生产的。
07:19
How many other people?
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有多少人呢？
07:21
Tens? Hundreds? Thousands?
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十个？一百个？一千个？
07:23
You know, I think it's probably millions.
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我知道大概有数百万个。
07:25
Because you've got to include the man who grew the coffee,
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因为你得包括生产咖啡的人们，
07:27
which was brewed for the man who was on the oil rig,
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他们给那些在石油钻台工作的人们提供咖啡，
07:30
who was drilling for oil, which was going to be made into the plastic, etc.
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石油钻台人们提取石油，使之生产出塑料等等。
07:33
They were all working for me,
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这些人都为我工作，
07:35
to make a mouse for me.
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才生产出这鼠标。
07:37
And that's the way society works.
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这是社会运转的方式。
07:40
That's what we've achieved as a species.
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也是我们人类进步的方式。
07:44
In the old days, if you were rich,
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在过去的日子，假如你是个富人，
07:46
you literally had people working for you.
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你的确拥有很多人来伺候你。
07:48
That's how you got to be rich; you employed them.
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你变得如何富有；你就能雇佣很多人。
07:50
Louis XIV had a lot of people working for him.
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路易十四世拥有很多侍从。
07:52
They made his silly outfits, like this,
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他们制作路易十四愚蠢的服饰，就如这个。
07:54
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
07:56
and they did his silly hairstyles, or whatever.
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他们也做路易十四愚蠢的发型，或者类似的事。
07:59
He had 498 people
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每晚，路易十四有498侍从
08:01
to prepare his dinner every night.
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为他做宫廷御膳。
08:03
But a modern tourist going around the palace of Versailles
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但现代旅客在凡尔赛宫参观，
08:05
and looking at Louis XIV's pictures,
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看着路易十四的画，
08:08
he has 498 people doing his dinner tonight too.
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他晚上也可以享受498人为他做的晚餐。
08:10
They're in bistros and cafes and restaurants
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这些人遍布巴黎的酒馆，咖啡馆，餐馆
08:12
and shops all over Paris,
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和商店。
08:14
and they're all ready to serve you at an hour's notice with an excellent meal
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这些人随时服务于你，只要你提前1小时预约一顿丰盛的美餐，
08:17
that's probably got higher quality
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恐怕你享受的美餐要远远好于
08:19
than Louis XIV even had.
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路易斯十四的御膳。
08:21
And that's what we've done, because we're all working for each other.
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因为我们相互协同工作，我们才能做好。
08:24
We're able to draw upon specialization and exchange
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我们能够变得专业，并交换技能，
08:27
to raise each other's living standards.
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来提高每个人生活水准。
08:30
Now, you do get other animals working for each other too.
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现在，其他动物也彼此协同工作。
08:33
Ants are a classic example; workers work for queens and queens work for workers.
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蚂蚁就是个经典例子；工蚁为蚁后工作，反之亦然。
08:36
But there's a big difference,
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但是一个大区别是，
08:38
which is that it only happens within the colony.
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这种协同合作仅发生在一个蚁群里。
08:40
There's no working for each other across the colonies.
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在这蚁群之外就没有彼此的协同合作。
08:42
And the reason for that is because there's a reproductive division of labor.
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缘由是生殖的劳动分工。
08:45
That is to say, they specialize with respect to reproduction.
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也可以说，它们分工取决于繁殖力。
08:48
The queen does it all.
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蚁后全权负责繁殖。
08:50
In our species, we don't like doing that.
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在我们人类物种，我们不可以像那样做。
08:52
It's the one thing we insist on doing for ourselves, is reproduction.
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我们坚持一定要自己做的一件事就是繁殖。
08:55
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
08:58
Even in England, we don't leave reproduction to the Queen.
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甚至在英国，我们不会让女王带我们去生殖繁衍后代。
09:01
(Applause)
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（掌声）
09:05
So when did this habit start?
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这个习惯何时形成的？
09:07
And how long has it been going on? And what does it mean?
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要多久能形成？这有什么意义？
09:09
Well, I think, probably, the oldest version of this
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我认为，这最古老的人类版本
09:12
is probably the sexual division of labor.
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可能是性别分工。
09:14
But I've got no evidence for that.
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但我还没有例证加以说明。
09:16
It just looks like the first thing we did
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这就好比我们起初的那样，
09:18
was work male for female and female for male.
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男人为女人而工作，女人为男人而劳作。
09:21
In all hunter-gatherer societies today,
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在当代所有狩猎采集社会，
09:23
there's a foraging division of labor
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整体上看，在狩猎男性和采集女性之间
09:25
between, on the whole, hunting males and gathering females.
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是以觅食分工。
09:27
It isn't always quite that simple,
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这种觅食分工也是很复杂的。
09:29
but there's a distinction between
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在男女之间的专业分工角色
09:31
specialized roles for males and females.
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是有区别的。
09:33
And the beauty of this system
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这分工体系的妙处
09:35
is that it benefits both sides.
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是它有利于男女两者。
09:38
The woman knows
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在哈扎人(Hadzas坦桑尼亚原住民)的这个案例，
09:40
that, in the Hadzas' case here --
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女人知道
09:42
digging roots to share with men in exchange for meat --
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挖根茎，并与男人交换肉类，
09:44
she knows that all she has to do to get access to protein
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她知道要想得到脂肪
09:47
is to dig some extra roots and trade them for meat.
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就要去挖更多的根茎，并与男人交换后得到肉。
09:50
And she doesn't have to go on an exhausting hunt
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女人不需要参与一次耗力的狩猎，
09:52
and try and kill a warthog.
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去尝试猎杀一头疣猪。
09:54
And the man knows that he doesn't have to do any digging
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男人知道他用不着挖根茎
09:56
to get roots.
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来得到想要的。
09:58
All he has to do is make sure that when he kills a warthog
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他要做的就是猎杀到一头
10:00
it's big enough to share some.
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足够大的疣猪，并用来分享。
10:02
And so both sides raise each other's standards of living
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男女双方通过性别分工
10:05
through the sexual division of labor.
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相互提高生活水准。
10:07
When did this happen? We don't know, but it's possible
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这何时发生的呢？我们不得而知，但是
10:10
that Neanderthals didn't do this.
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尼安德特人可能没有这样做。
10:12
They were a highly cooperative species.
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他们是高度合作的物种。
10:14
They were a highly intelligent species.
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他们是高智商的物种。
10:16
Their brains on average, by the end, were bigger than yours and mine
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说到底，平均他们的大脑比今天
10:18
in this room today.
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在座各位的和我的大脑要大得多。
10:20
They were imaginative. They buried their dead.
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他们富有想像力。他们掩埋他们中的死者。
10:22
They had language, probably,
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他们可能用语言交流，
10:24
because we know they had the FOXP2 gene of the same kind as us,
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因为我们所知他们有和我们人类一样的FOXP2基因，
10:26
which was discovered here in Oxford.
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这是在牛津大学研究发现的。
10:28
And so it looks like they probably had linguistic skills.
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尼安德特人可能有语言技能。
10:31
They were brilliant people. I'm not dissing the Neanderthals.
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他们是很聪明的人。我不是说尼安德特人的不好。
10:35
But there's no evidence
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但是没有证据显示
10:37
of a sexual division of labor.
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他们有性别分工。
10:39
There's no evidence of gathering behavior by females.
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没有女性的采集行为，
10:42
It looks like the females were cooperative hunters with the men.
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这就好比女性和男性一起协同狩猎。
10:46
And the other thing there's no evidence for
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另一件事是没有证据显示
10:48
is exchange between groups,
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在不同族群之间的交换。
10:51
because the objects that you find in Neanderthal remains,
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因为你在尼安德特人遗址发现的那些物件，
10:54
the tools they made,
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他们制造的工具，
10:56
are always made from local materials.
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多数是当地材料制成的。
10:58
For example, in the Caucasus
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例如，在高加索遗址，
11:00
there's a site where you find local Neanderthal tools.
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你可以发现当地尼安德特人制造的工具。
11:03
They're always made from local chert.
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它们都是当地黑燧石制成的。
11:05
In the same valley there are modern human remains
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在这同样的山谷，大约在3万年前同一日期，
11:07
from about the same date, 30,000 years ago,
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那有现代人类遗址。
11:09
and some of those are from local chert,
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现代人的一些燧石是当地制成的，
11:11
but more -- but many of them are made
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但更多，多数是
11:13
from obsidian from a long way away.
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从很远的地方的黑曜石制成的。
11:15
And when human beings began
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当人们开始
11:17
moving objects around like this,
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移动像这个类似的东西时，
11:19
it was evidence that they were exchanging between groups.
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这就证明他们开始在不同族群交换东西。
11:22
Trade is 10 times as old as farming.
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交换贸易比农业有10倍多长远历史。
11:25
People forget that. People think of trade as a modern thing.
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人们忘了这个。人们认为贸易是现代产物。
11:28
Exchange between groups has been going on
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不同族群交换已经延伸
11:30
for a hundred thousand years.
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了十万年之久。
11:33
And the earliest evidence for it crops up
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早期证明贸易开始于
11:35
somewhere between 80 and 120,000 years ago in Africa,
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8万年到12万年以前的非洲某地，
11:38
when you see obsidian and jasper and other things
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你看到黑曜石和碧玉和其他东西
11:41
moving long distances in Ethiopia.
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是通过埃塞俄比亚的长距离交换贸易而来的。
11:44
You also see seashells --
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你也看到海贝，
11:46
as discovered by a team here in Oxford --
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经牛津大学的团队证明，
11:48
moving 125 miles inland
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这海贝沿地中海的阿尔及利亚
11:50
from the Mediterranean in Algeria.
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向内陆移动125英里。
11:53
And that's evidence that people
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这就是人们开始在
11:55
have started exchanging between groups.
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不同族群交换的证明。
11:57
And that will have led to specialization.
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这将导致专业分工。
11:59
How do you know that long-distance movement
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为什么认为长距离移动是指贸易
12:01
means trade rather than migration?
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而不是指移民？
12:04
Well, you look at modern hunter gatherers like aboriginals,
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你观察现代狩猎采集者像澳洲土著人，
12:06
who quarried for stone axes at a place called Mount Isa,
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他们在伊萨山区（位于澳洲东北）用石斧工作，
12:09
which was a quarry owned by the Kalkadoon tribe.
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那是Kalkadoon卡卡度部落拥有一个开采区。
12:12
They traded them with their neighbors
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他们与他们的邻居
12:14
for things like stingray barbs,
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交换类似魟刺的东西。
12:16
and the consequence was that stone axes
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结果是这配有魟刺的石斧在
12:18
ended up over a large part of Australia.
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澳大利亚的大部分地区都能见到。
12:20
So long-distance movement of tools
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所以长距离移动的工具
12:22
is a sign of trade, not migration.
305
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是贸易的标志，而不是移民。
12:25
What happens when you cut people off from exchange,
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当你切断人们之间交换，阻止人们交换和专业分工能力，
12:28
from the ability to exchange and specialize?
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会发生什么呢？
12:31
And the answer is that
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结论是
12:33
not only do you slow down technological progress,
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你不仅仅延缓科技进步，
12:35
you can actually throw it into reverse.
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实际上使科技退步。
12:38
An example is Tasmania.
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塔斯马尼亚岛就是个例子。
12:40
When the sea level rose and Tasmania became an island 10,000 years ago,
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1万年前，当海平面上升，塔斯马尼亚岛变成个孤岛，
12:43
the people on it not only experienced
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在那的人们比起澳大利亚的人们经历了
12:45
slower progress than people on the mainland,
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更慢的进步，
12:48
they actually experienced regress.
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他们实际上在倒退。
12:50
They gave up the ability to make stone tools
316
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他们放弃了生产骨制品，
12:52
and fishing equipment and clothing
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钓鱼工具和制衣技能，
12:54
because the population of about 4,000 people
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缘于四千人口
12:57
was simply not large enough
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不是足够庞大
12:59
to maintain the specialized skills
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到需要专业分工技能，
13:01
necessary to keep the technology they had.
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才能维护他们拥有的科技。
13:04
It's as if the people in this room were plonked on a desert island.
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这就好比今天在座的人们被空投到一个荒岛。
13:06
How many of the things in our pockets
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在1万年后，我们口袋中有多少物品
13:08
could we continue to make after 10,000 years?
324
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会继续使用生产？
13:12
It didn't happen in Tierra del Fuego --
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在火地岛（智力和阿根廷分而治之的岛屿），同样的岛屿，同样的人们
13:14
similar island, similar people.
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身上却不会发生这种事。
13:16
The reason: because Tierra del Fuego
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因为火地岛与
13:18
is separated from South America by a much narrower straight,
328
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南美洲大陆仅隔一个非常狭窄的海峡。（麦哲伦海峡）
13:21
and there was trading contact across that straight
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整个一万年来，贯穿海峡有往来
13:23
throughout 10,000 years.
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贸易合同。
13:25
The Tasmanians were isolated.
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而塔斯马尼亚岛却是隔绝的。
13:28
Go back to this image again
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再回到这幅图片
13:30
and ask yourself, not only who made it and for who,
333
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不仅仅试问，谁制造了它，为谁造的，
13:33
but who knew how to make it.
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也要知道是谁怎样生产出来的。
13:36
In the case of the stone axe, the man who made it knew how to make it.
335
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石斧的例子，人们生产它出来就知道怎样制作的。
13:39
But who knows how to make a computer mouse?
336
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但是谁知道怎样生产出鼠标吗？
13:42
Nobody, literally nobody.
337
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没人，没人完全知道。
13:45
There is nobody on the planet who knows how to make a computer mouse.
338
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地球上没人知道怎样生产出鼠标。
13:48
I mean this quite seriously.
339
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我真的很严肃。
13:50
The president of the computer mouse company doesn't know.
340
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鼠标公司的总裁不知道。
13:52
He just knows how to run a company.
341
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他仅知道怎样运作一个公司。
13:55
The person on the assembly line doesn't know
342
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安装线上工人也不知道，
13:57
because he doesn't know how to drill an oil well
343
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2000
缘于他不知道怎样钻探油井，
13:59
to get oil out to make plastic, and so on.
344
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通过提炼石油生产出塑料等等。
14:02
We all know little bits, but none of us knows the whole.
345
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我们所有人只知道一点点，没有谁能全部知晓。
14:05
I am of course quoting from a famous essay
346
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的确我要引用1950年代的经济学家，
14:07
by Leonard Read, the economist in the 1950s,
347
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3000
伦纳德·里德Leonard Read的著名作品里的话，
14:10
called "I, Pencil"
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“我，铅笔”（I, Pencil）。
14:12
in which he wrote about how a pencil came to be made,
349
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他写道铅笔是怎样被制做的，
14:15
and how nobody knows even how to make a pencil,
350
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竟然没人知道铅笔怎样被制成的，
14:18
because the people who assemble it don't know how to mine graphite,
351
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缘于人们生产铅笔，却不知道怎样开采石墨。
14:21
and they don't know how to fell trees and that kind of thing.
352
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人们也不知道怎样砍伐树木等等类似的事情。
14:24
And what we've done in human society,
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人类社会通过交换和专业分工，我们
14:26
through exchange and specialization,
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做过的事
14:28
is we've created
355
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使我们有创新
14:30
the ability to do things that we don't even understand.
356
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能力去做我们完全不理解的事情。
14:33
It's not the same with language.
357
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这不等同于语言。
14:35
With language we have to transfer ideas
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我们用语言来传达思想，
14:37
that we understand with each other.
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然后我们彼此理解。
14:40
But with technology,
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但是用科技，
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we can actually do things that are beyond our capabilities.
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我们的确可以用科技做超出我们能力的事情。
14:44
We've gone beyond the capacity of the human mind
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我们已经超越了人类能力的范围到了
14:47
to an extraordinary degree.
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一个非凡的程度。
14:49
And by the way,
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顺便说一下，
14:51
that's one of the reasons that I'm not interested
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我对其中一个原因关于智商的辩论
14:54
in the debate about I.Q.,
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不感兴趣，
14:56
about whether some groups have higher I.Q.s than other groups.
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这辩论是关于一族群的智商高于另一族群的智商。
14:59
It's completely irrelevant.
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它是完全不相干的。
15:01
What's relevant to a society
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与此社会相关的
15:04
is how well people are communicating their ideas,
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是人们怎样交流他们彼此的思想，
15:07
and how well they're cooperating,
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怎样互动合作得更好，
15:09
not how clever the individuals are.
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而不是独立个体怎样聪明。
15:11
So we've created something called the collective brain.
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所以我们创造了协同合作的大脑（collective brain）。
15:13
We're just the nodes in the network.
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我们只是这脑网络上的交点。
15:15
We're the neurons in this brain.
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我们就好比这个脑里的神经元。
15:18
It's the interchange of ideas,
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正是思想的交融，
15:20
the meeting and mating of ideas between them,
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人们之间思想碰撞和交配，
15:22
that is causing technological progress,
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导致技术正逐步，一点一滴地
15:25
incrementally, bit by bit.
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进步。
15:27
However, bad things happen.
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尽管如此，坏事情也会发生。
15:29
And in the future, as we go forward,
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在未来，随着我们社会进步，
15:32
we will, of course, experience terrible things.
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我们当然会遇到可怕的事情。
15:35
There will be wars; there will be depressions;
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例如战争， 经济萧条，
15:37
there will be natural disasters.
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自然灾难。
15:39
Awful things will happen in this century, I'm absolutely sure.
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我的确肯定本世纪会有糟糕的事情发生。
15:42
But I'm also sure that, because of the connections people are making,
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但是我也确信由于人们彼此的联系结合，
15:45
and the ability of ideas
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思想能力
15:47
to meet and to mate
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相碰撞和交配
15:49
as never before,
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都是前所未有的。
15:51
I'm also sure
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我也也确信
15:53
that technology will advance,
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科技会进步，
15:55
and therefore living standards will advance.
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从而改善人们生活水准。
15:57
Because through the cloud,
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因为通过云计算，
15:59
through crowd sourcing,
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通过外包集成采购服务，
16:01
through the bottom-up world that we've created,
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通过我们已经创建的自下而上世界，
16:03
where not just the elites but everybody
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在那里不仅仅是精英，而是每个人
16:06
is able to have their ideas
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都能有自己的想法，
16:08
and make them meet and mate,
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让彼此想法碰撞和交配，
16:10
we are surely accelerating the rate of innovation.
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我们一定会加快创新速度。
16:13
Thank you.
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谢谢大家。
16:15
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Matt Ridley - Rational optimistMatt Ridley argues that, through history, the engine of human progress and prosperity has been, and is, "ideas having sex with each other."
Why you should listen
British author Matt Ridley knows one thing: Through history, the engine of human progress and prosperity has been, and is, the mating of ideas. The sophistication of the modern world, says Ridley, lies not in individual intelligence or imagination; it is a collective enterprise. In his book The Rational Optimist, Ridley (whose previous works include Genome and Nature via Nurture) sweeps the entire arc of human history to powerfully argue that "prosperity comes from everybody working for everybody else."
It is our habit of trade, idea-sharing and specialization that has created the collective brain which set human living standards on a rising trend. This, he says, "holds out hope that the human race will prosper mightily in the years ahead -- because ideas are having sex with each other as never before."
Watch his 2010 TEDTalk, "When Ideas Have Sex."
Matt Ridley | Speaker | TED.com