TEDGlobalLondon
Alice Bows-Larkin: Climate change is happening. Here's how we adapt
艾莉絲‧鲍爾-拉金: 氣候正在變遷，這是我們的因應之道
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想像你身處這輩子最熱的一天，接著把溫度再提高6度、10度到12度。氣候學家艾莉絲‧鲍爾-拉金說，如果現在不大刀闊斧降低溫室氣體排放，那麼未來等著我們的，就是如此酷熱的氣候。她認為改變就是現在－亦即改變整個制度，並認真思考用經濟成長換來穩定的氣候。
Alice Bows-Larkin - Climate scholar
Climate researcher Alice Bows-Larkin connects her academic research to the broader policy context, helping create policies to deal with our changing planet. Full bio
Climate researcher Alice Bows-Larkin connects her academic research to the broader policy context, helping create policies to deal with our changing planet. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Over our lifetimes,
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我們的一生中
00:14
we've all contributed to climate change.
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都在促進氣候變遷
00:17
Actions, choices and behaviors
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我們的行動, 選擇和作為
00:21
will have led to an increase
in greenhouse gas emissions.
in greenhouse gas emissions.
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都將助長溫室氣體排放
00:26
And I think that that's
quite a powerful thought.
quite a powerful thought.
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我認為這個想法很震撼
00:29
But it does have the potential
to make us feel guilty
to make us feel guilty
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但也可能令人感到罪惡
00:32
when we think about decisions
we might have made
we might have made
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只要一想起做過的決定
00:35
around where to travel to,
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想去旅行的地方
00:37
how often and how,
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多常去、如何去
00:40
about the energy that we choose to use
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還有在居家和工作環境
00:43
in our homes or in our workplaces,
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所使用的能源
00:46
or quite simply the lifestyles
that we lead and enjoy.
that we lead and enjoy.
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或者僅僅是習慣的生活模式
00:51
But we can also turn
that thought on its head,
that thought on its head,
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然而我們可以
翻轉這個想法
翻轉這個想法
00:55
and think that if we've had
such a profound
such a profound
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既然我們已經對氣候
00:57
but a negative impact
on our climate already,
on our climate already,
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造成如此劇烈
而負面的影響
而負面的影響
01:01
then we have an opportunity to influence
the amount of future climate change
the amount of future climate change
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我們也有機會影氣候變遷幅度
01:06
that we will need to adapt to.
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也是我們得適應的氣候變遷幅度
01:09
So we have a choice.
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因此, 我們可以抉擇
01:10
We can either choose to start
to take climate change seriously,
to take climate change seriously,
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一者, 開始正視氣候變遷
01:15
and significantly cut and mitigate
our greenhouse gas emissions,
our greenhouse gas emissions,
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大幅降低溫室氣體排放
01:19
and then we will have to adapt to less
of the climate change impacts in future.
of the climate change impacts in future.
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未來我們只需因應
較緩和的氣候變遷
較緩和的氣候變遷
01:25
Alternatively, we can continue to really
ignore the climate change problem.
ignore the climate change problem.
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反過來說, 若我們繼續
無視氣候變遷
無視氣候變遷
01:30
But if we do that, we are also choosing
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這一來, 我們選擇面對的
01:33
to adapt to very much more powerful
climate impacts in future.
climate impacts in future.
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將會是以後更強烈的氣候衝擊
01:38
And not only that.
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不只這樣
01:39
As people who live in countries
with high per capita emissions,
with high per capita emissions,
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由於我國人均排放量高
01:42
we're making that choice
on behalf of others as well.
on behalf of others as well.
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我們也代表其他人做決定
01:47
But the choice that we don't have
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而我們的選項裡
01:49
is a no climate change future.
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並沒有不遭受氣候變遷的未來
01:53
Over the last two decades,
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過去20年來
01:55
our government negotiators
and policymakers have been coming together
and policymakers have been coming together
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我們的政府協商人及政策決定者不斷會面
01:59
to discuss climate change,
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商討氣候變化問題
02:01
and they've been focused on
avoiding a two-degree centigrade warming
avoiding a two-degree centigrade warming
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努力避免地球氣溫
比工業革命以前
比工業革命以前
02:05
above pre-industrial levels.
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上升2℃
02:08
That's the temperature that's associated
with dangerous impacts
with dangerous impacts
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不同指標都顯示
超過這個溫度
超過這個溫度
02:12
across a range of different indicators,
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將對人類和環境
02:15
to humans and to the environment.
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帶來危險後果
02:17
So two degrees centigrade
constitutes dangerous climate change.
constitutes dangerous climate change.
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這2℃代表危險的氣候改變
02:22
But dangerous climate change
can be subjective.
can be subjective.
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然而變遷的危險程度
可能很主觀
可能很主觀
02:24
So if we think about
an extreme weather event
an extreme weather event
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例如有些地方
02:27
that might happen
in some part of the world,
in some part of the world,
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會發生劇烈天災
02:29
and if that happens in a part of the world
where there is good infrastructure,
where there is good infrastructure,
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如果那裡公共建設完善
02:33
where there are people
that are well-insured and so on,
that are well-insured and so on,
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人民都有保險
02:36
then that impact can be disruptive.
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天災可能只影響正常生活
02:40
It can cause upset, it could cause cost.
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使人心情低落, 損失財物
02:43
It could even cause some deaths.
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或者一些人員傷亡
02:45
But if that exact same weather event
happens in a part of the world
happens in a part of the world
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但如果同樣天災
發生在其他地方
發生在其他地方
02:49
where there is poor infrastructure,
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那裡基礎建設落後
02:51
or where people are not well-insured,
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人們沒有保險
02:53
or they're not having
good support networks,
good support networks,
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又缺乏好的支援網絡
02:55
then that same climate change impact
could be devastating.
could be devastating.
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那麼相同的氣候變遷
就可能造成毀滅
就可能造成毀滅
03:00
It could cause a significant loss of home,
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成千上萬人流離失所
03:03
but it could also cause
significant amounts of death.
significant amounts of death.
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罹難者不計其數
03:07
So this is a graph of the CO2 emissions
at the left-hand side
at the left-hand side
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這張圖, 左邊是
石油燃料和工業的
石油燃料和工業的
03:11
from fossil fuel and industry,
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二氧化碳排放量
03:13
and time from before
the Industrial Revolution
the Industrial Revolution
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時間軸則從工業革命前
03:16
out towards the present day.
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延伸到今日
03:18
And what's immediately striking about this
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最令人一眼震驚的是
03:21
is that emissions
have been growing exponentially.
have been growing exponentially.
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排放量呈指數成長
03:25
If we focus in on a shorter
period of time from 1950,
period of time from 1950,
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如果縮短時間
至1950年以來
至1950年以來
03:29
we have established in 1988
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1988年, 各國成立
03:32
the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change,
on Climate Change,
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政府間氣候變化專門委員會
03:35
the Rio Earth Summit in 1992,
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1992年召開了
里約地球高峰會
里約地球高峰會
03:39
then rolling on a few years,
in 2009 we had the Copenhagen Accord,
in 2009 we had the Copenhagen Accord,
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數年後, 2009年各國
簽署哥本哈根協議
簽署哥本哈根協議
03:44
where it established avoiding
a two-degree temperature rise
a two-degree temperature rise
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同意根據科學方法和平等原則
03:48
in keeping with the science
and on the basis of equity.
and on the basis of equity.
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避免氣溫升幅超過2℃
03:52
And then in 2012, we had the Rio+20 event.
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接著, 2012年召開了
Rio+20世界永續發展高峰會
Rio+20世界永續發展高峰會
03:56
And all the way through,
during all of these meetings
during all of these meetings
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然而這些會議一路下來
03:59
and many others as well,
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還有許多其他會議
04:01
emissions have continued to rise.
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排放量仍持續攀升
04:04
And if we focus on our historical
emission trend in recent years,
emission trend in recent years,
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我們如果看
近年的排放量走向
近年的排放量走向
04:10
and we put that together
with our understanding
with our understanding
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加上對全球經濟
04:12
of the direction of travel
in our global economy,
in our global economy,
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發展方向的了解
04:15
then we are much more on track
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便發現, 我們更可能走上
04:17
for a four-degree centigrade
global warming
global warming
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全球暖化4℃的道路
04:20
than we are for the two-degree centigrade.
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而非2℃
04:24
Now, let's just pause for a moment
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現在, 讓我們暫且想像
04:26
and think about this four-degree
global average temperature.
global average temperature.
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全球平均升溫4℃的情況
04:30
Most of our planet
is actually made up of the sea.
is actually made up of the sea.
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我們的地球
大部分是海洋
大部分是海洋
04:34
Now, because the sea has a greater
thermal inertia than the land,
thermal inertia than the land,
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由於海洋的熱慣性比陸地高
04:38
the average temperatures over land
are actually going to be higher
are actually going to be higher
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因此陸地的平均溫度
04:41
than they are over the sea.
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實際上比較海洋高
04:43
The second thing is that we
as human beings don't experience
as human beings don't experience
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再者, 人類從未經歷過
04:47
global average temperatures.
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全球平均溫度
04:49
We experience hot days, cold days,
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我們有熱天、冷天
04:52
rainy days, especially if you live
in Manchester like me.
in Manchester like me.
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雨天，尤其像我住曼徹斯特
04:55
So now put yourself in a city center.
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現在想像你在世界上
04:58
Imagine somewhere in the world:
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某大都會市中心
05:00
Mumbai, Beijing, New York, London.
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如孟買, 北京, 紐約或倫敦
05:03
It's the hottest day
that you've ever experienced.
that you've ever experienced.
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今天是你這輩子
最熱的一天
最熱的一天
05:07
There's sun beating down,
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太陽光毒辣直射
05:08
there's concrete and glass all around you.
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身旁全是
水泥建築和玻璃帷幕
水泥建築和玻璃帷幕
05:11
Now imagine that same day --
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想像同樣這天
05:13
but it's six, eight,
maybe 10 to 12 degrees warmer
maybe 10 to 12 degrees warmer
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溫度升高6, 8, 10或12度
05:18
on that day during that heat wave.
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熱浪襲擊
05:20
That's the kind of thing
we're going to experience
we're going to experience
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這是未來全球平均溫升4℃後
05:23
under a four-degree global
average temperature scenario.
average temperature scenario.
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我們所要面對的情形
05:27
And the problem with these extremes,
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這個問題伴隨著極端狀況
05:29
and not just the temperature extremes,
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不只有極端溫度
05:31
but also the extremes in terms of storms
and other climate impacts,
and other climate impacts,
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還有超級暴風雨
和其他氣候衝擊
和其他氣候衝擊
05:35
is our infrastructure is just not set up
to deal with these sorts of events.
to deal with these sorts of events.
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我們的公共建設
並非為因應這些情形而建
並非為因應這些情形而建
05:40
So our roads and our rail networks
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因此我們的公路、鐵路網
05:42
have been designed to last for a long time
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設計上只能承受
05:44
and withstand only
certain amounts of impacts
certain amounts of impacts
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世界上不同地方的
特殊天災衝擊
特殊天災衝擊
05:47
in different parts of the world.
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以長久使用
05:48
And this is going to be
extremely challenged.
extremely challenged.
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因此這將是嚴峻考驗
05:51
Our power stations
are expected to be cooled by water
are expected to be cooled by water
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發電廠本來就用水
降溫至特定溫度
降溫至特定溫度
05:54
to a certain temperature
to remain effective and resilient.
to remain effective and resilient.
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以保持效能並重新發電
05:58
And our buildings
are designed to be comfortable
are designed to be comfortable
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建築物也設計在
特定溫度範圍
特定溫度範圍
06:01
within a particular temperature range.
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才能運作良好
06:03
And this is all going to be
significantly challenged
significantly challenged
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溫升4℃情況下
06:06
under a four-degree-type scenario.
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這些設施都將備受挑戰
06:08
Our infrastructure has not been
designed to cope with this.
designed to cope with this.
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公共建設不是設計來
處理這些狀況
處理這些狀況
06:14
So if we go back, also thinking
about four degrees,
about four degrees,
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讓我們再回到溫升4℃
06:18
it's not just the direct impacts,
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就算沒有直接影響
06:20
but also some indirect impacts.
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也有間接衝擊
06:22
So if we take food security, for example.
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以糧食安全為例
06:25
Maize and wheat yields
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在某些地區
06:28
in some parts of the world
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受溫度上升4℃影響
06:29
are expected to be up to 40 percent lower
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玉米和小麥產量
06:33
under a four-degree scenario,
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可能銳減40％
06:35
rice up to 30 percent lower.
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或減少30％
06:38
This will be absolutely devastating
for global food security.
for global food security.
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這必將拖垮全球糧食安全
06:42
So all in all, the kinds
of impacts anticipated
of impacts anticipated
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因此溫升4℃
06:45
under this four-degree centigrade scenario
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帶來的整體衝擊
06:49
are going to be incompatible
with global organized living.
with global organized living.
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將無法與全人類的
生存秩序共存
生存秩序共存
06:55
So back to our trajectories and our graphs
of four degrees and two degrees.
of four degrees and two degrees.
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再回到圖上
4℃和2℃的路徑
4℃和2℃的路徑
07:00
Is it reasonable still
to focus on the two-degree path?
to focus on the two-degree path?
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只關注2℃路徑
還有道理嗎?
還有道理嗎?
07:04
There are quite a lot of my colleagues
and other scientists
and other scientists
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我許多同事和科學家會說
07:07
who would say that it's now too late
to avoid a two-degree warming.
to avoid a two-degree warming.
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避免溫升2℃為時不晚
07:11
But I would just like
to draw on my own research
to draw on my own research
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但我想引用我對
07:14
on energy systems, on food systems,
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能源體系、糧食體系
07:17
aviation and also shipping,
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航空與貨運的研究
07:19
just to say that I think there is still
a small fighting chance
a small fighting chance
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我認為仍有一點機會
07:23
of avoiding this two-degree
dangerous climate change.
dangerous climate change.
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逆轉危險的2℃氣候變遷
07:27
But we really need
to get to grips with the numbers
to get to grips with the numbers
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但我們非得從統計數字
07:29
to work out how to do it.
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才知道該怎麼做
07:31
So if you focus in on this trajectory
and these graphs,
and these graphs,
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如果你留意這圖和曲線
07:35
the yellow circle there
highlights that the departure
highlights that the departure
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黃圈位置凸顯出
07:38
from the red four-degree pathway
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紅色4℃路徑與
綠色2℃路徑
綠色2℃路徑
07:40
to the two-degree
green pathway is immediate.
green pathway is immediate.
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快速分道揚鑣
07:45
And that's because
of cumulative emissions,
of cumulative emissions,
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這因為累積排放量
07:48
or the carbon budget.
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或碳預算的關係
07:49
So in other words, because
of the lights and the projectors
of the lights and the projectors
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換句話說,
由於目前現場正使用
由於目前現場正使用
07:53
that are on in this room right now,
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燈光和投影器材
07:55
the CO2 that is going into our atmosphere
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二氧化碳持續進入大氣
07:57
as a result of that
electricity consumption
electricity consumption
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造成長時間
07:59
lasts a very long time.
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持續用電
08:01
Some of it will be in our atmosphere
for a century, maybe much longer.
for a century, maybe much longer.
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有些氣體會在大氣中
存留一世紀, 或者更久
存留一世紀, 或者更久
08:05
It will accumulate, and greenhouse gases
tend to be cumulative.
tend to be cumulative.
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因此不斷增加
溫室氣體也逐漸累積
溫室氣體也逐漸累積
08:09
And that tells us something
about these trajectories.
about these trajectories.
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於是從中我們了解
這兩條路徑
這兩條路徑
08:12
First of all, it tells us that it's
the area under these curves that matter,
the area under these curves that matter,
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首先, 曲線下的區域才是重點
08:16
not where we reach
at a particular date in future.
at a particular date in future.
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而非在哪一天達成目標
08:19
And that's important,
because it doesn't matter
because it doesn't matter
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因為問題不在於
08:21
if we come up with some amazing
whiz-bang technology
whiz-bang technology
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我們是否發展出
驚人的先進科技
驚人的先進科技
08:24
to sort out our energy problem
on the last day of 2049,
on the last day of 2049,
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好在2049年底
解決能源問題
解決能源問題
08:28
just in the nick of time
to sort things out.
to sort things out.
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及時化解危機
08:30
Because in the meantime,
emissions will have accumulated.
emissions will have accumulated.
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因為在此同時
排放量仍不斷增加
排放量仍不斷增加
08:34
So if we continue on this red,
four-degree centigrade scenario pathway,
four-degree centigrade scenario pathway,
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如果我們走
紅色4℃路徑
紅色4℃路徑
08:40
the longer we continue on it,
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走得越久
08:42
that will need to be
made up for in later years
made up for in later years
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就必須在之後幾年
進行補救
進行補救
08:45
to keep the same carbon budget,
to keep the same area under the curve,
to keep the same area under the curve,
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以維持等量碳預算
並保持在曲線下方
並保持在曲線下方
08:49
which means that that trajectory,
the red one there, becomes steeper.
the red one there, becomes steeper.
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如此一來, 紅曲線
就變得更陡峭
就變得更陡峭
08:54
So in other words, if we don't reduce
emissions in the short to medium term,
emissions in the short to medium term,
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也就是, 如果短中期內
無法降低排放
無法降低排放
08:57
then we'll have to make more significant
year-on-year emission reductions.
year-on-year emission reductions.
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之後每年都得大幅減量
09:02
We also know that we have
to decarbonize our energy system.
to decarbonize our energy system.
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同時, 我們也必須
讓能源系統去碳化
讓能源系統去碳化
09:06
But if we don't start to cut
emissions in the short to medium term,
emissions in the short to medium term,
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然而如果短中期內無法減排
09:10
then we will have to do that even sooner.
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我們就得減量得更快
09:13
So this poses really big
challenges for us.
challenges for us.
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這是個重大挑戰
09:18
The other thing it does is tells us
something about energy policy.
something about energy policy.
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另外, 這也顯示了能源政策
09:21
If you live in a part of the world where
per capita emissions are already high,
per capita emissions are already high,
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如果你身在
人均排放量高的地方
人均排放量高的地方
09:25
it points us towards
reducing energy demand.
reducing energy demand.
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代表必須降低能源需求
09:29
And that's because
with all the will in the world,
with all the will in the world,
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這是因為
即便全球同心協力
即便全球同心協力
09:32
the large-scale engineering infrastructure
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要讓短期內新建的
09:34
that we need to roll out rapidly
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大型能源設施
09:36
to decarbonize the supply side
of our energy system
of our energy system
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供應去碳化的能源
09:40
is just simply not going
to happen in time.
to happen in time.
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是不可能限期內實現的
09:42
So it doesn't matter
whether we choose nuclear power
whether we choose nuclear power
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所以問題不在於
該選擇核能
該選擇核能
09:45
or carbon capture and storage,
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或捕獲、封存碳排
09:47
upscale our biofuel production,
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或提高生物燃料產品的水平
09:49
or go for a much bigger roll-out
of wind turbines and wave turbines.
of wind turbines and wave turbines.
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或增加風力和潮汐發電產能
09:53
All of that will take time.
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達成這些都得花時間
09:55
So because it's the area
under the curve that matters,
under the curve that matters,
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由於重點在於曲線下面積
09:58
we need to focus on energy efficiency,
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我們需著重能源效率
10:00
but also on energy conservation --
in other words, using less energy.
in other words, using less energy.
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以及能源保護
也就是減少能源使用
也就是減少能源使用
10:05
And if we do that, that also means
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如果做到了, 這代表
10:07
that as we continue to roll out
the supply-side technology,
the supply-side technology,
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我們可以持續供應能源
10:11
we will have less of a job to do
if we've actually managed
if we've actually managed
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負擔也將減輕
只要我們確實
只要我們確實
10:14
to reduce our energy consumption,
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達成降低能源消耗
10:16
because we will then need
less infrastructure on the supply side.
less infrastructure on the supply side.
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因為我們已不需
那麼多能源建設
那麼多能源建設
10:21
Another issue that we really
need to grapple with
need to grapple with
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另一需要努力解決的問題是
10:24
is the issue of well-being and equity.
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人類安居樂業和平等問題
10:27
There are many parts of the world where
the standard of living needs to rise.
the standard of living needs to rise.
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在很多地方
生活水平極需提升
生活水平極需提升
10:33
Bbut with energy systems
currently reliant on fossil fuel,
currently reliant on fossil fuel,
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但由於目前仍靠石油為能源
10:38
as those economies grow
so will emissions.
so will emissions.
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因此只要經濟成長
排放量也將增加
排放量也將增加
10:41
And now, if we're all constrained
by the same amount of carbon budget,
by the same amount of carbon budget,
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現在, 如果全世界
遵守碳預算限制
遵守碳預算限制
10:44
that means that if some parts of
the world's emissions are needing to rise,
the world's emissions are needing to rise,
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代表如果有地方
將增加碳排放
將增加碳排放
10:48
then other parts of the world's
emissions need to reduce.
emissions need to reduce.
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那麼其他地方就得減少
10:53
So that poses very significant challenges
for wealthy nations.
for wealthy nations.
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這對富國是一大挑戰
10:57
Because according to our research,
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因為根據我們的研究
11:00
if you're in a country where per capita
emissions are really high --
emissions are really high --
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人均排放量非常高的國家
11:03
so North America, Europe, Australia --
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如北美, 歐洲, 澳洲
11:07
emissions reductions of the order
of 10 percent per year,
of 10 percent per year,
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現在開始每年減排10%
11:11
and starting immediately,
will be required for a good chance
will be required for a good chance
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那麼就很有機會
11:15
of avoiding the two-degree target.
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避免2℃問題
11:18
Let me just put that into context.
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以具體脈絡來說
11:19
The economist Nicholas Stern
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經濟學家斯特恩曾說
11:21
said that emission reductions
of more than one percent per year
of more than one percent per year
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每年減排高於1%
11:25
had only ever been associated
with economic recession or upheaval.
with economic recession or upheaval.
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會造成經濟衰退和動盪
11:31
So this poses huge challenges
for the issue of economic growth,
for the issue of economic growth,
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這嚴重挑戰了經濟成長
11:37
because if we have our
high carbon infrastructure in place,
high carbon infrastructure in place,
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因為如果我們
仍使用高碳排設施
仍使用高碳排設施
11:41
it means that if our economies grow,
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意味著經濟若成長
11:44
then so do our emissions.
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碳排放也跟著成長
11:46
So I'd just like to take
a quote from a paper
a quote from a paper
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我想引用我和安德森
11:48
by myself and Kevin Anderson back in 2011
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2011年提出的研究報告
11:52
where we said that to avoid the two-degree
framing of dangerous climate change,
framing of dangerous climate change,
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為了避免2℃溫升
導致危險的氣候變化
導致危險的氣候變化
11:58
economic growth needs to be exchanged
at least temporarily
at least temporarily
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至少短期內
經濟成長必須互換
經濟成長必須互換
12:02
for a period of planned austerity
in wealthy nations.
in wealthy nations.
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富國要實行撙節計畫
12:08
This is a really difficult
message to take,
message to take,
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這很難說服人
12:12
because what it suggests is that
we really need to do things differently.
we really need to do things differently.
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因為這建議要求改變做法
12:17
This is not about just incremental change.
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不只增加變革
12:21
This is about doing things differently,
about whole system change,
about whole system change,
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而是改變方法
完全扭轉體系
完全扭轉體系
12:26
and sometimes
it's about doing less things.
it's about doing less things.
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有時, 這代表少做一點
12:30
And this applies to all of us,
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這適用於所有人
12:32
whatever sphere of influence we have.
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不論你我的影響層面為何
12:35
So it could be from writing
to our local politician
to our local politician
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可以寫信給選區議員
12:38
to talking to our boss at work
or being the boss at work,
or being the boss at work,
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跟老闆聊聊
或當老闆實地做
或當老闆實地做
12:41
or talking with our friends and family,
or, quite simply, changing our lifestyles.
or, quite simply, changing our lifestyles.
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跟親友談談
或單純改變生活模式
或單純改變生活模式
12:47
Because we really need
to make significant change.
to make significant change.
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因為, 我們真的需要大幅改變
12:50
At the moment, we're choosing
a four-degree scenario.
a four-degree scenario.
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目前, 我們選了4℃道路
12:55
If we really want to avoid
the two-degree scenario,
the two-degree scenario,
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如果想避免2℃處境
12:58
there really is no time
like the present to act.
like the present to act.
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現在就要行動
13:02
Thank you.
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謝謝大家
13:03
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
13:12
Bruno Giussani: Alice,
basically what you're saying,
basically what you're saying,
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(吉薩尼)艾莉絲, 你演講提到
13:15
the talk is, unless wealthy nations
start cutting 10 percent per year
start cutting 10 percent per year
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除非富國每年減排10%
13:18
the emissions now, this year,
not in 2020 or '25,
not in 2020 or '25,
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現在今年開始
不是2020或2025年
不是2020或2025年
13:23
we are going to go straight
to the four-plus-degree scenario.
to the four-plus-degree scenario.
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否則我們將直入溫升4℃
13:28
I am wondering what's your take
on the cut by 70 percent for 2070.
on the cut by 70 percent for 2070.
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我好奇你對2070年
減排70%的看法
減排70%的看法
13:31
Alice Bows-Larkin: Yeah, it's just
nowhere near enough to avoid two degrees.
nowhere near enough to avoid two degrees.
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(鲍爾‧拉金) 是的
連避免2℃都差得遠呢
連避免2℃都差得遠呢
13:35
One of the things that often --
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我們常聽到
13:37
when there are these modeling studies
that look at what we need to do,
that look at what we need to do,
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一些模型研究, 建議該怎麼做
13:40
is they tend to hugely overestimate
how quickly other countries in the world
how quickly other countries in the world
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它們大多高估世界各國
13:45
can start to reduce emissions.
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可投入減排的時間
13:46
So they make kind of
heroic assumptions about that.
heroic assumptions about that.
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他們的假定過於美化
13:50
The more we do that,
because it's the cumulative emissions,
because it's the cumulative emissions,
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這種研究做越多
由於碳排的累積
由於碳排的累積
13:52
the short-term stuff that really matters.
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短期內的成果
就非常重要
就非常重要
13:54
So it does make a huge difference.
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差異會很大
13:56
If a big country like China, for example,
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假如大國, 像中國
13:58
continues to grow
even for just a few extra years,
even for just a few extra years,
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持續再發展僅僅數年
14:00
that will make a big difference
to when we need to decarbonize.
to when we need to decarbonize.
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那麼我們去碳的時間點
又將大不同
又將大不同
14:03
So I don't think we can even say
when it will be,
when it will be,
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因此很難說會在何時
14:06
because it all depends
on what we have to do in the short term.
on what we have to do in the short term.
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全靠短期內
我們做了什麼
我們做了什麼
14:09
But I think we've just got huge scope,
and we don't pull those levers
and we don't pull those levers
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但目前我們只知概略
也尚未著手
也尚未著手
14:12
that allow us to reduce
the energy demand, which is a shame.
the energy demand, which is a shame.
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使能源需求降低
真丟臉
真丟臉
14:15
BG: Alice, thank you for coming
to TED and sharing this data.
to TED and sharing this data.
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(吉薩尼) 謝謝你來TED分享
14:18
ABL: Thank you.
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(鲍爾‧拉金) 謝謝
14:20
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Alice Bows-Larkin - Climate scholarClimate researcher Alice Bows-Larkin connects her academic research to the broader policy context, helping create policies to deal with our changing planet.
Why you should listen
Through her work on international transport, energy systems and carbon budgets, Alice Bows-Larkin has helped shape policies throughout the world, including the UK’s Climate Change Act. After studying physics and climate modeling, she joined the interdisciplinary Tyndall Centre at the University of Manchester. She’s currently working on a large project analyzing the future of shipping as climate shifts, and is exploring how to upscale innovation at the intersection of water, food and energy.
More profile about the speakerAlice Bows-Larkin | Speaker | TED.com