TEDSummit
Juan Enriquez: What will humans look like in 100 years?
胡安．安立奎: 100 年後，人類會變成什麽樣子？
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人類能夠進化細菌、植物和動物——未來學家胡安．安立奎 (Juan Enriquez) 提問：進化人體是否符合道德？從中世紀義肢到當今的神經元工程，再到人造 DNA 技術，胡安．安立奎在這場前瞻性的演講中，幫我們釐清了進化人體的道德標準，並帶我們想像，未來人類為移居其他星球而可能做出的人體改造願景。
Juan Enriquez - Futurist
Juan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society. Full bio
Juan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:14
Here's a question that matters.
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這裡有個重要的問題，
（改造人體是否符合道德？）
00:16
[Is it ethical to evolve the human body?]
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00:18
Because we're beginning to get all
the tools together to evolve ourselves.
the tools together to evolve ourselves.
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因為我們已經開始利用各種工具
來改造自己的身體。
來改造自己的身體。
00:22
And we can evolve bacteria
and we can evolve plants
and we can evolve plants
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我們可以改造細菌、
我們可以改造植物，
我們可以改造植物，
我們還可以改造動物；
00:24
and we can evolve animals,
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00:26
and we're now reaching a point
where we really have to ask,
where we really have to ask,
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但是在此時，我們必須要自問：
我們真的想要改造人類嗎？
而這是否符合道德？
而這是否符合道德？
00:29
is it really ethical
and do we want to evolve human beings?
and do we want to evolve human beings?
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00:33
And as you're thinking about that,
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當你在思考這個問題時，
00:35
let me talk about that
in the context of prosthetics,
in the context of prosthetics,
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讓我先從「義肢」方面
來談這個話題，
來談這個話題，
00:39
prosthetics past, present, future.
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包括義肢的過去、現在、未來。
00:42
So this is the iron hand
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這支鐵製手臂
00:44
that belonged to one of the German counts.
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是屬於一位德國伯爵的。
00:46
Loved to fight, lost his arm
in one of these battles.
in one of these battles.
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好戰的他，在一次戰爭中
失去了一隻手臂，
失去了一隻手臂，
00:51
No problem, he just made a suit of armor,
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不過沒關係，
他製作了一套鎧甲，
他製作了一套鎧甲，
00:53
put it on,
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穿上它，
00:55
perfect prosthetic.
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就是個完美的義肢了。
00:56
That's where the concept
of ruling with an iron fist comes from.
of ruling with an iron fist comes from.
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這就是「鐵腕統治」概念的由來。
01:01
And of course these prosthetics
have been getting more and more useful,
have been getting more and more useful,
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當然，這些義肢也越來越好用，
越來越現代化了。
01:05
more and more modern.
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你可以用它拿起半熟的水煮蛋。
01:06
You can hold soft-boiled eggs.
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01:08
You can have all types of controls,
and as you're thinking about that,
and as you're thinking about that,
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你可以任意地操控義肢，
而當你正在這麼想時，
而當你正在這麼想時，
01:12
there are wonderful people like Hugh Herr
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像休‧賀爾教授這樣了不起的人，
01:14
who have been building
absolutely extraordinary prosthetics.
absolutely extraordinary prosthetics.
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已經製作出令人讚嘆的義肢。
01:17
So the wonderful Aimee Mullins
will go out and say,
will go out and say,
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好到讓艾美．姆林絲
可以在出門前說：
可以在出門前說：
01:20
how tall do I want to be tonight?
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「今晚我想要變成多高呢？」
01:23
Or he will say what type of cliff
do I want to climb?
do I want to climb?
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或是讓賀爾教授可以說：
「這次我想攀登哪一種峭壁呢？」
「這次我想攀登哪一種峭壁呢？」
01:25
Or does somebody want to run a marathon,
or does somebody want to ballroom dance?
or does somebody want to ballroom dance?
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或「有人想穿上義肢跑馬拉松嗎？」
「有人想穿上義肢跳國標舞嗎？」
「有人想穿上義肢跳國標舞嗎？」
01:30
And as you adapt these things,
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而當你還在適應這些改變的時候，
01:32
the interesting thing about prosthetics
is they've been coming inside the body.
is they've been coming inside the body.
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更有趣的事情是，
義肢已經進入人體內了。
義肢已經進入人體內了。
01:36
So these external prosthetics
have now become artificial knees.
have now become artificial knees.
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所以這些原本在人體外的義肢
現在成為人工關節，
現在成為人工關節，
01:39
They've become artificial hips.
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成為人造的大腿骨。
01:41
And then they've evolved further
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然後，它們又更加進化，
01:43
to become not just nice to have
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不只成為人類的好幫手。
01:46
but essential to have.
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現在更成為必需品了。
01:47
So when you're talking
about a heart pacemaker as a prosthetic,
about a heart pacemaker as a prosthetic,
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所以當你提到：
「心律調節器是義肢的一種，」
「心律調節器是義肢的一種，」
01:51
you're talking about something
that isn't just, "I'm missing my leg,"
that isn't just, "I'm missing my leg,"
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代表的意義已經不只是像
「我少了一條腿 」那樣，
「我少了一條腿 」那樣，
01:55
it's, "if I don't have this, I can die."
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而是：「如果沒有它，我會死。 」
01:57
And at that point, a prosthetic
becomes a symbiotic relationship
becomes a symbiotic relationship
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此時，義肢和人體
形成了一種共生的關係。
02:02
with the human body.
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02:04
And four of the smartest people
that I've ever met --
that I've ever met --
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我所見過最聰明的人當中，
有四個人──
有四個人──
埃德．博伊登、休．賀爾、
喬伊．雅各布森、鮑伯．蘭--
喬伊．雅各布森、鮑伯．蘭--
02:07
Ed Boyden, Hugh Herr,
Joe Jacobson, Bob Lander --
Joe Jacobson, Bob Lander --
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02:12
are working on a Center
for Extreme Bionics.
for Extreme Bionics.
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他們都任職於
「極致仿生研究中心」。
「極致仿生研究中心」。
02:15
And the interesting thing
of what you're seeing here is
of what you're seeing here is
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你們現在可以看到
一件有趣的事情：
一件有趣的事情：
02:17
these prosthetics
now get integrated into the bone.
now get integrated into the bone.
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現在義肢已經整合到骨骼當中，
02:20
They get integrated into the skin.
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整合到皮膚當中，
02:21
They get integrated into the muscle.
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甚至整合到肌肉當中。
02:24
And one of the other sides of Ed
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另一方面，埃德也開始思考：
如何利用光線或其他機制
02:27
is he's been thinking
about how to connect the brain
about how to connect the brain
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02:30
using light or other mechanisms
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將大腦和義肢
02:33
directly to things like these prosthetics.
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直接進行連結。
02:36
And if you can do that,
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如果你能夠做到這點，
02:37
then you can begin changing
fundamental aspects of humanity.
fundamental aspects of humanity.
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那麼你就可以開始
改變人類的基本構造了。
改變人類的基本構造了。
02:41
So how quickly you react to something
depends on the diameter of a nerve.
depends on the diameter of a nerve.
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你對事物的反應速度
取決於神經的直徑，
取決於神經的直徑，
02:46
And of course, if you have nerves
that are external or prosthetic,
that are external or prosthetic,
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當然，如果你有體外神經或是義肢，
02:51
say with light or liquid metal,
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比如說，利用光線或是液態金屬，
02:54
then you can increase that diameter
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你可以增加神經的直徑，
02:56
and you could even increase it
theoretically to the point where,
theoretically to the point where,
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根據理論，我們甚至可以
提升反應速度，
提升反應速度，
02:59
as long as you could see the muzzle flash,
you could step out of the way of a bullet.
you could step out of the way of a bullet.
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到當你一看見槍口火光，
就可以躲開子彈。
就可以躲開子彈。
03:03
Those are the order of magnitude
of changes you're talking about.
of changes you're talking about.
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這就是我們所謂的
級數的改變了。
級數的改變了。
03:08
This is a fourth
sort of level of prosthetics.
sort of level of prosthetics.
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這是屬於第四等級的義肢。
03:10
These are Phonak hearing aids,
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這些是峰力公司製造的助聽器，
03:13
and the reason
why these are so interesting
why these are so interesting
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而它們讓人非常感興趣的原因是，
它們跨出了
03:15
is because they cross the threshold
from where prosthetics are something
from where prosthetics are something
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義肢是給「殘疾」人士使用的門檻，
03:18
for somebody who is "disabled"
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03:21
and they become something
that somebody who is "normal"
that somebody who is "normal"
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它們變成了「正常人」
也會想用的東西，
03:25
might want to actually have,
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03:27
because what this prosthetic does,
which is really interesting,
which is really interesting,
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因為這個助聽器能做的事
真的很有趣。
真的很有趣。
03:30
is not only does it help you hear,
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它不僅僅能夠幫助你聽見聲音，
還能幫助你專注聆聽，
03:32
you can focus your hearing,
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03:33
so it can hear the conversation
going on over there.
going on over there.
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所以你能夠聽到遠處的對話。
你可以擁有超強的聽力。
03:36
You can have superhearing.
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你可以聽到所有角度的聲音。
你可以聽到白噪音。
你可以聽到白噪音。
03:37
You can have hearing in 360 degrees.
You can have white noise.
You can have white noise.
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你可以用它錄音。
順便一提，它們還有手機的功能。
順便一提，它們還有手機的功能。
03:40
You can record, and oh, by the way,
they also put a phone into this.
they also put a phone into this.
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03:44
So this functions as your hearing aid
and also as your phone.
and also as your phone.
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所以它不僅是助聽器，
也是你的手機。
也是你的手機。
03:47
And at that point, somebody might actually
want to have a prosthetic voluntarily.
want to have a prosthetic voluntarily.
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到那個時候，有些人很可能
會自願去裝義肢了。
會自願去裝義肢了。
03:54
All of these thousands
of loosely connected little pieces
of loosely connected little pieces
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這些成千上萬的
看似不相關的小零件，
看似不相關的小零件，
03:57
are coming together,
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正在整合當中，
03:59
and it's about time we ask the question,
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所以是時候，我們要問：
04:01
how do we want to evolve human beings
over the next century or two?
over the next century or two?
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在一、二個世紀內，
我們想如何改造人類？
我們想如何改造人類？
04:05
And for that we turn
to a great philosopher
to a great philosopher
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針對這個問題，
我們向一位偉大的哲學家求助，
我們向一位偉大的哲學家求助，
04:08
who was a very smart man
despite being a Yankee fan.
despite being a Yankee fan.
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他是非常聰明的人，
雖然是個洋基球迷。
雖然是個洋基球迷。
04:12
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
04:14
And Yogi Berra used to say, of course,
that it's very tough to make predictions,
that it's very tough to make predictions,
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約吉．貝拉說，
預測不是一件簡單的事情，
預測不是一件簡單的事情，
特別是關於未來的預測。
04:18
especially about the future.
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（笑聲）
04:20
(Laughter)
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04:21
So instead of making a prediction
about the future to begin with,
about the future to begin with,
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所以，我們從開始就不先預測未來，
04:24
let's take what's happening in the present
with people like Tony Atala,
with people like Tony Atala,
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讓我們看看當下發生在
托尼．阿塔拉身上的事，
托尼．阿塔拉身上的事，
04:27
who is redesigning 30-some-odd organs.
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他正在重新設計 30 多個的器官。
04:31
And maybe the ultimate prosthetic
isn't having something external, titanium.
isn't having something external, titanium.
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也許終極義肢已經不需要
金屬鈦這種外來的材料。
金屬鈦這種外來的材料。
04:34
Maybe the ultimate prosthetic
is take your own gene code,
is take your own gene code,
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也許終極義肢會用你自己的基因代碼，
重新製造你身體的一些部分，
04:37
remake your own body parts,
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04:39
because that's a whole lot more effective
than any kind of a prosthetic.
than any kind of a prosthetic.
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因為那比任何一種義肢的效果都要好。
04:44
But while you're at it, then you can take
the work of Craig Venter and Ham Smith.
the work of Craig Venter and Ham Smith.
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順便，你也可以看看
克雷格．文特爾
和翰姆．史密斯的作品。
和翰姆．史密斯的作品。
04:48
And one of the things
that we've been doing
that we've been doing
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我們一直以來想要做的事情之一，
04:50
is trying to figure out
how to reprogram cells.
how to reprogram cells.
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就是找出重新編碼細胞的方法。
04:54
And if you can reprogram a cell,
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如果你可以重新編碼細胞，
04:55
then you can change the cells
in those organs.
in those organs.
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你就可以改變器官內的細胞。
04:59
So if you can change
the cells in those organs,
the cells in those organs,
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所以，如果你可以改變
器官內的細胞，
器官內的細胞，
05:01
maybe you make those organs
more radiation-resistant.
more radiation-resistant.
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也許你就能讓那些器官
更能抵抗輻射。
更能抵抗輻射。
也許你就能使它們
吸收更多的氧氣。
吸收更多的氧氣。
05:04
Maybe you make them absorb more oxygen.
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也許你使它們更有效率地
05:06
Maybe you make them more efficient
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過濾出你體內不需要的物質。
05:07
to filter out stuff
that you don't want in your body.
that you don't want in your body.
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05:11
And over the last few weeks,
George Church has been in the news a lot
George Church has been in the news a lot
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過去幾個禮拜，
喬治．丘奇經常上新聞。
喬治．丘奇經常上新聞。
05:15
because he's been talking about taking
one of these programmable cells
one of these programmable cells
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因為他一直在談論一種
可編碼的細胞，
可編碼的細胞，
以及把整個人類基因組，
05:18
and inserting an entire human genome
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05:20
into that cell.
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插入那個細胞的事。
05:22
And once you can insert
an entire human genome into a cell,
an entire human genome into a cell,
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一旦你能夠將整個
人類基因組插入細胞當中，
人類基因組插入細胞當中，
05:26
then you begin to ask the question,
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你就會開始問這樣的問題：
05:28
would you want
to enhance any of that genome?
to enhance any of that genome?
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你要強化哪些基因呢？
05:33
Do you want to enhance a human body?
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你想要強化人體嗎？
05:35
How would you want
to enhance a human body?
to enhance a human body?
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你想怎樣強化人體呢？
05:38
Where is it ethical
to enhance a human body
to enhance a human body
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那些部分的強化是合乎道德的？
05:40
and where is it not ethical
to enhance a human body?
to enhance a human body?
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而那些部位是不合乎道德的？
05:43
And all of a sudden, what we're doing
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突然之間，我們正在做的，
好像是在一盤多度空間的棋盤，
05:45
is we've got this
multidimensional chess board
multidimensional chess board
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05:48
where we can change
human genetics by using viruses
human genetics by using viruses
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在那裡我們可以透過病毒
來改變人類的基因，
來改變人類的基因，
05:51
to attack things like AIDS,
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以攻擊愛滋這樣的疾病；
05:54
or we can change the gene code
through gene therapy
through gene therapy
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或者透過基因療法改變基因的序列，
05:56
to do away with some hereditary diseases,
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來去除一些遺傳疾病；
05:59
or we can change the environment,
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或者，我們可以改變環境，
06:01
and change the expression
of those genes in the epigenome
of those genes in the epigenome
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以及改變表觀基因組的基因；
06:03
and pass that on to the next generations.
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然後傳給後代。
06:07
And all of a sudden,
it's not just one little bit,
it's not just one little bit,
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突然間，這些不再是
一點點微小的改變，
一點點微小的改變，
06:10
it's all these stacked little bits
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而是全部的一點一滴累積起來，
你可選擇一些小部分，
06:12
that allow you
to take little portions of it
to take little portions of it
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06:15
until all the portions coming together
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然後將選擇的部分集合起來，
06:18
lead you to something
that's very different.
that's very different.
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你就變得非常不同了。
06:21
And a lot of people
are very scared by this stuff.
are very scared by this stuff.
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很多人對此感到害怕。
06:24
And it does sound scary,
and there are risks to this stuff.
and there are risks to this stuff.
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這聽起來確實很恐怖，也有風險。
06:28
So why in the world would you
ever want to do this stuff?
ever want to do this stuff?
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為什麼我們還是想要這麼做呢？
為什麼我們想要
06:30
Why would we really want
to alter the human body
to alter the human body
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從基本上改變人體呢？
06:33
in a fundamental way?
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06:37
The answer lies in part
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提供我們部分答案的
06:39
with Lord Rees,
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是里斯男爵，
英國皇家天文學家，
06:41
astronomer royal of Great Britain.
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06:44
And one of his favorite sayings
is the universe is 100 percent malevolent.
is the universe is 100 percent malevolent.
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他最喜歡說的一句話就是：
宇宙是百分之百惡劣的環境。
宇宙是百分之百惡劣的環境。
06:48
So what does that mean?
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這句話是什麽意思？
06:49
It means if you take
any one of your bodies at random,
any one of your bodies at random,
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意思就是，如果從人類當中
隨機選出一位，
06:52
drop it anywhere in the universe,
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把他丟到宇宙的任何一個地方，
06:54
drop it in space, you die.
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丟到外太空，你就會死。
06:56
Drop it on the Sun, you die.
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丟到太陽上，你就會死。
06:58
Drop it on the surface
of Mercury, you die.
of Mercury, you die.
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丟到水星表面上，你也會死。
07:00
Drop it near a supernova, you die.
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丟到超新星附近，還是死。
07:02
But fortunately, it's only
about 80 percent effective.
about 80 percent effective.
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但還好，這句話
只有 80% 是正確的。
只有 80% 是正確的。
07:06
So as a great physicist once said,
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一位偉大的物理學家曾說過，
07:10
there's these little
upstream eddies of biology
upstream eddies of biology
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在生物界，小小的上游漩渦，
07:14
that create order
in this rapid torrent of entropy.
in this rapid torrent of entropy.
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在混沌的熵流中創造了致序。
07:20
So as the universe dissipates energy,
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就在宇宙分散能量的同時，
07:23
there's these upstream eddies
that create biological order.
that create biological order.
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這些上游漩渦創造了生物的秩序。
07:27
Now, the problem with eddies is,
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然而，漩渦的問題是，
07:30
they tend to disappear.
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它們會消失，
07:31
They shift. They move in rivers.
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它們轉向，在河中移動。
07:34
And because of that, when an eddy shifts,
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因此，當有漩渦移動的時候，
07:36
when the Earth becomes a snowball,
when the Earth becomes very hot,
when the Earth becomes very hot,
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當地球變成雪球的時候，
或是變得炙熱的時候，
或是變得炙熱的時候，
07:40
when the Earth gets hit by an asteroid,
when you have supervolcanoes,
when you have supervolcanoes,
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當地球被小行星撞擊的時候，
當超級火山爆發的時候，
當超級火山爆發的時候，
當太陽耀斑爆發的時候，
07:43
when you have solar flares,
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07:45
when you have potentially
extinction-level events
extinction-level events
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當我們遇到潛在的毀滅事件的時候，
07:48
like the next election --
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比如下屆總統選舉——
07:50
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
07:53
then all of a sudden,
you can have periodic extinctions.
you can have periodic extinctions.
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突然間，我們就會遇到
周期性的地球大滅絕。
周期性的地球大滅絕。
07:57
And by the way, that's happened
five times on Earth,
five times on Earth,
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順便提一下，這在地球上
已經發生過五次了，
已經發生過五次了，
08:00
and therefore it is very likely
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因此，人類有朝一日
08:02
that the human species on Earth
is going to go extinct someday.
is going to go extinct someday.
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很有可能在地球上消失。
08:06
Not next week,
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不是下禮拜，
08:07
not next month,
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不是下個月，
08:09
maybe in November,
but maybe 10,000 years after that.
but maybe 10,000 years after that.
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也許就在 11 月，
也許是那之後的一萬年。
也許是那之後的一萬年。
08:13
As you're thinking
of the consequence of that,
of the consequence of that,
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一旦考慮到人類滅絕的後果，
08:16
if you believe that extinctions
are common and natural
are common and natural
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如果你相信大滅絕是常見且自然的，
08:20
and normal and occur periodically,
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正常的而且會周期性地發生，
08:22
it becomes a moral imperative
to diversify our species.
to diversify our species.
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那麼，將我們的物種多樣化
在道德上就變得勢在必行了。
在道德上就變得勢在必行了。
它成為道德上的必要性的原因是，
08:26
And it becomes a moral imperative
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08:28
because it's going to be
really hard to live on Mars
really hard to live on Mars
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因為如果我們不從基本上改善人體，
08:31
if we don't fundamentally
modify the human body.
modify the human body.
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人類在火星上很難生存。
08:34
Right?
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對嗎？
我們都來自一個細胞，
08:36
You go from one cell,
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08:37
mom and dad coming together
to make one cell,
to make one cell,
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由父母結合所產生的細胞，
08:39
in a cascade to 10 trillion cells.
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經由分裂變成了 10 兆個細胞。
08:41
We don't know, if you change
the gravity substantially,
the gravity substantially,
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我們不敢確定當引力有巨大變化時，
08:46
if the same thing will happen
to create your body.
to create your body.
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相同的過程是否還會
在我們的體內發生。
在我們的體內發生。
08:50
We do know that if you expose
our bodies as they currently are
our bodies as they currently are
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目前我們能確定的是，
如果你將自己的身體
暴露在強輻射下，
暴露在強輻射下，
08:53
to a lot of radiation, we will die.
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我們就會死。
08:57
So as you're thinking of that,
you have to really redesign things
you have to really redesign things
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所以當你在想這些時，
光是去火星，
我們就得重新設計人體。
我們就得重新設計人體。
09:00
just to get to Mars.
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09:01
Forget about the moons
of Neptune or Jupiter.
of Neptune or Jupiter.
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更不用說去海王星或木星了。
09:05
And to borrow from Nikolai Kardashev,
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借用一下尼古拉·卡爾達肖夫的話
（前蘇聯天體物理學家），
（前蘇聯天體物理學家），
09:07
let's think about life
in a series of scales.
in a series of scales.
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讓我們將生命想成是一系列的文明，
09:09
So Life One civilization
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在一級生命文明當中
09:12
is a civilization that begins
to alter his or her looks.
to alter his or her looks.
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人類可以改變長相。
09:16
And we've been doing that
for thousands of years.
for thousands of years.
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我們已經這樣做了數千年了。
09:18
You've got tummy tucks
and you've got this and you've got that.
and you've got this and you've got that.
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你可以做腹部整形，
整整這兒，整整那兒。
整整這兒，整整那兒。
09:22
You alter your looks, and I'm told
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你能改變你的外觀，我聽人家說
09:24
that not all of those alterations
take place for medical reasons.
take place for medical reasons.
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不是所有的整形都與醫療有關。
09:28
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
09:30
Seems odd.
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好像有點怪。
09:32
A Life Two civilization
is a different civilization.
is a different civilization.
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二級生命文明就不同了。
09:36
A Life Two civilization alters
fundamental aspects of the body.
fundamental aspects of the body.
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二級生命文明可以改變
身體的基本特徵。
身體的基本特徵。
09:41
So you put human growth hormone in,
the person grows taller,
the person grows taller,
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你可以注射生長激素，
使人長的更高，
使人長的更高，
09:44
or you put x in and the person
gets fatter or loses metabolism
gets fatter or loses metabolism
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或者使用某種藥物，
讓人變胖或降低新陳代謝，
讓人變胖或降低新陳代謝，
09:48
or does a whole series of things,
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或者進行一系列的改變，
09:50
but you're altering the functions
in a fundamental way.
in a fundamental way.
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但你已經在基本上改變
人體的功能了。
人體的功能了。
09:53
To become an intrasolar civilization,
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要成為太陽系內的文明，
09:55
we're going to have to create
a Life Three civilization,
a Life Three civilization,
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我們必須創造出三級生命文明，
09:59
and that looks very different
from what we've got here.
from what we've got here.
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這跟我們現在的世界完全不同。
10:02
Maybe you splice in
Deinococcus radiodurans
Deinococcus radiodurans
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也許你會被植入
「抗輻射奇異球菌」，
「抗輻射奇異球菌」，
10:05
so that the cells can resplice
after a lot of exposure to radiation.
after a lot of exposure to radiation.
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讓細胞暴露在大量輻射
之後仍可重新結合。
之後仍可重新結合。
10:10
Maybe you breathe by having oxygen
flow through your blood
flow through your blood
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也許你的呼吸是由氧氣
直接進入血液當中，
直接進入血液當中，
10:13
instead of through your lungs.
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而不是肺中。
10:15
But you're talking about
really radical redesigns,
really radical redesigns,
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但是我們正在說的
是完全徹底的重新設計，
是完全徹底的重新設計，
10:19
and one of the interesting things
that's happened in the last decade
that's happened in the last decade
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在過去十年間
發生了一件有趣的事情，
發生了一件有趣的事情，
10:22
is we've discovered
a whole lot of planets out there.
a whole lot of planets out there.
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就是我們在宇宙中
發現了很多的行星。
發現了很多的行星。
10:25
And some of them may be Earth-like.
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其中有些可能很像地球。
10:29
The problem is, if we ever
want to get to these planets,
want to get to these planets,
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問題是，如果我們想要
到達那些行星，
到達那些行星，
10:33
the fastest human objects --
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最快的人造飛行器——
10:34
Juno and Voyager
and the rest of this stuff --
and the rest of this stuff --
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朱諾號和航海家太空船，
還有其它類似的東西——
還有其它類似的東西——
10:37
take tens of thousands of years
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也要花個數萬年，
10:39
to get from here
to the nearest solar system.
to the nearest solar system.
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才能到達離我們最近的恒星系。
10:42
So if you want to start exploring
beaches somewhere else,
beaches somewhere else,
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所以，如果你想在
其他星球的海灘上散步，
其他星球的海灘上散步，
10:46
or you want to see two-sun sunsets,
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或者想要看到兩個太陽的日落，
10:49
then you're talking
about something that is very different,
about something that is very different,
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那麼你在談的是非常不同的，
10:53
because you have to change
the timescale and the body of humans
the timescale and the body of humans
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因為你必須以完全超乎想像的程度，
改變時間的維度和人體的構造。
10:58
in ways which may be
absolutely unrecognizable.
absolutely unrecognizable.
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11:02
And that's a Life Four civilization.
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這就是四級生命文明。
11:05
Now, we can't even begin
to imagine what that might look like,
to imagine what that might look like,
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雖然我們無法想像
我們會變成什麽樣子，
我們會變成什麽樣子，
11:08
but we're beginning to get glimpses
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但是我們已經能稍微瞥見
11:11
of instruments that might
take us even that far.
take us even that far.
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可以把我們帶往那種地方的設備了。
11:14
And let me give you two examples.
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我給各位舉兩個例子：
11:16
So this is the wonderful Floyd Romesberg,
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這位是我們出色的
弗洛伊德·瑞姆斯伯格，
弗洛伊德·瑞姆斯伯格，
11:19
and one of the things
that Floyd's been doing
that Floyd's been doing
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弗洛伊德一直在做的一件事就是
研究基礎生命化學。
11:21
is he's been playing
with the basic chemistry of life.
with the basic chemistry of life.
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地球上所有生命都由 DNA 的
四個字母 ATCG 所組成，
四個字母 ATCG 所組成，
11:23
So all life on this planet
is made in ATCGs, the four letters of DNA.
is made in ATCGs, the four letters of DNA.
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11:28
All bacteria, all plants,
all animals, all humans, all cows,
all animals, all humans, all cows,
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所有的細菌、植物、
動物、人類、牛，
動物、人類、牛，
11:31
everything else.
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每一樣都由 ATCG 組成。
11:34
And what Floyd did is he changed out
two of those base pairs,
two of those base pairs,
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弗洛伊德做的研究就是
改變其中的兩組鹼基對，
改變其中的兩組鹼基對，
11:38
so it's ATXY.
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變成 ATXY 的組合。
11:41
And that means that you now have
a parallel system to make life,
a parallel system to make life,
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意思就是，你也有一個
可以創造生命的平行系統，
可以創造生命的平行系統，
11:47
to make babies, to reproduce, to evolve,
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你可以造出小生命、
可以繁殖、進化，
可以繁殖、進化，
11:51
that doesn't mate
with most things on Earth
with most things on Earth
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但不能與地球上大多數的生命配對，
11:54
or in fact maybe with nothing on Earth.
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或者說地球上根本沒有生物可配對。
11:56
Maybe you make plants
that are immune to all bacteria.
that are immune to all bacteria.
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也許你可以製造出
對所有細菌免疫的植物。
對所有細菌免疫的植物。
11:59
Maybe you make plants
that are immune to all viruses.
that are immune to all viruses.
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也許你能製造出
對所有病毒免疫的植物。
對所有病毒免疫的植物。
12:01
But why is that so interesting?
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為什麼這讓人感興趣呢？
這意味著，人類不是
唯一的解決方案。
唯一的解決方案。
12:03
It means that we
are not a unique solution.
are not a unique solution.
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12:07
It means you can create
alternate chemistries to us
alternate chemistries to us
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也就是說，你能夠在我們體內
造出不同的化學成分，
造出不同的化學成分，
12:11
that could be chemistries
adaptable to a very different planet
adaptable to a very different planet
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以能夠適應不同星球上的生活，
12:16
that could create life and heredity.
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我們仍然能創造生命、繁衍後代。
12:20
The second experiment,
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第二個實驗，
12:22
or the other implication
of this experiment,
of this experiment,
246
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或者說是這個實驗的另一個含義，
12:25
is that all of you, all life
is based on 20 amino acids.
is based on 20 amino acids.
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就是我們所有人，所有的生命
都是由 20 種氨基酸所組成。
都是由 20 種氨基酸所組成。
12:29
If you don't substitute two amino acids,
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如果你不替換其中兩個，
12:32
if you don't say ATXY,
if you say ATCG + XY,
if you say ATCG + XY,
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比如，你不用 ATXY，
而是用 ATCG + XY，
而是用 ATCG + XY，
12:37
then you go from
20 building blocks to 172,
20 building blocks to 172,
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那麼，你就能夠從 20 種
氨基酸增長到 172 種，
氨基酸增長到 172 種，
12:41
and all of a sudden you've got
172 building blocks of amino acids
172 building blocks of amino acids
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突然間，我們就有了 172 種
基礎氨基酸的模型，
基礎氨基酸的模型，
12:44
to build life-forms
in very different shapes.
in very different shapes.
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可以建造出完全不同的生命形式。
12:49
The second experiment to think about
is a really weird experiment
is a really weird experiment
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第二個實驗，是在中國做的，
12:52
that's been taking place in China.
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一個非常詭異的實驗。
12:55
So this guy has been transplanting
hundreds of mouse heads.
hundreds of mouse heads.
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這傢伙已經換植過
上百隻老鼠的頭了。
上百隻老鼠的頭了。
13:00
Right?
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是不是？
13:02
And why is that an interesting experiment?
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為什麽這是個有趣的實驗呢？
13:05
Well, think of the first
heart transplants.
heart transplants.
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回想一下，當第一顆心臟被移植時。
醫生以前常做一件事，
13:07
One of the things they used to do
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就是把器官捐贈者的
太太或女兒叫過來，
太太或女兒叫過來，
13:09
is they used to bring in
the wife or the daughter of the donor
the wife or the daughter of the donor
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13:12
so the donee could tell the doctors,
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然後醫生問被捐贈的人，
13:16
"Do you recognize this person?
Do you love this person?
Do you love this person?
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「你認識這個人嗎？你愛她嗎？
13:19
Do you feel anything for this person?"
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你看到她，有什麼感覺呢？」
13:21
We laugh about that today.
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今天，我們會把這當笑話看。
13:23
We laugh because we know
the heart is a muscle,
the heart is a muscle,
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我們笑的原因，是因為我們知道
心臟只是一塊肌肉，
心臟只是一塊肌肉，
13:25
but for hundreds of thousands of years,
or tens of thousands of years,
or tens of thousands of years,
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但是，在幾百、幾千或幾萬年前，
13:29
"I gave her my heart.
She took my heart. She broke my heart."
She took my heart. She broke my heart."
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「我把心獻給了她，
她偷走了我的心，她讓我心碎。」
她偷走了我的心，她讓我心碎。」
13:32
We thought this was emotion
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我們把心臟當成情感的來源，
13:33
and we thought maybe emotions
were transplanted with the heart. Nope.
were transplanted with the heart. Nope.
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我們以為情感會跟隨心臟
一同被移植，但並沒有。
一同被移植，但並沒有。
13:38
So how about the brain?
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但如果是換成大腦呢？
13:41
Two possible outcomes to this experiment.
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這實驗有兩種可能的結果。
13:43
If you can get a mouse
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如果你拿一隻老鼠來，
13:46
that is functional,
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仍活著的，
13:47
then you can see,
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那你就能觀察到，
13:50
is the new brain a blank slate?
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牠的新大腦是否一片空白？
13:53
And boy, does that have implications.
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還是，這個大腦還有原有的意識？
13:57
Second option:
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第二個選擇：
13:58
the new mouse recognizes Minnie Mouse.
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新的老鼠還記得牠的戀愛對象。
14:01
The new mouse
remembers what it's afraid of,
remembers what it's afraid of,
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新的老鼠還記得牠害怕什麽，
記得如何走出迷宮，
14:03
remembers how to navigate the maze,
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14:05
and if that is true,
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若是果真如此，
14:08
then you can transplant
memory and consciousness.
memory and consciousness.
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你就能夠移植你的記憶和意識。
14:13
And then the really
interesting question is,
interesting question is,
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然後就引發一個有趣的問題，
14:15
if you can transplant this,
is the only input-output mechanism
is the only input-output mechanism
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如果你可以移植這個，
那是人體唯一
那是人體唯一
對於頭以下的身體的輸出輸入機制，
14:19
this down here?
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14:21
Or could you transplant
that consciousness into something
that consciousness into something
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或者說，我們能否將意識轉入到一個
14:24
that would be very different,
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完全不同的東西裡？
14:26
that would last in space,
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讓它能夠在宇宙中長遠留存，
14:27
that would last
tens of thousands of years,
tens of thousands of years,
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留存數萬年？
14:29
that would be a completely redesigned body
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那會是一個重新設計的身體，
14:31
that could hold consciousness
for a long, long period of time?
for a long, long period of time?
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可以將意識留存一段很長的時間嗎？
14:38
And let's come back to the first question:
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讓我們重新回到第一個問題：
14:40
Why would you ever want to do that?
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到底為什麼我們想要這麼做呢？
14:44
Well, I'll tell you why.
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好吧，讓我來告訴你原因。
14:45
Because this is the ultimate selfie.
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因為這張是我們的終極自拍照。
14:48
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
14:50
This is taken from six billion miles away,
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從六十億英哩的外太空拍的，
那是地球。
14:54
and that's Earth.
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14:56
And that's all of us.
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我們全部人就這麼個小白點。
14:59
And if that little thing goes,
all of humanity goes.
all of humanity goes.
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如果那個小白點不見了，
人類就不見了。
人類就不見了。
15:04
And the reason you want
to alter the human body
to alter the human body
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我們之所以想要改造人體，
15:06
is because you eventually
want a picture that says,
want a picture that says,
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是因為我們最終想要
在一張照片寫著，
在一張照片寫著，
15:09
that's us, and that's us,
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這是我們，這是我們，
15:11
and that's us,
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這也是我們，
15:12
because that's the way humanity
survives long-term extinction.
survives long-term extinction.
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因為這是人類延續生命
避免被滅絕的方法。
避免被滅絕的方法。
15:17
And that's the reason why it turns out
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這就是為什麼，
15:19
it's actually unethical
not to evolve the human body
not to evolve the human body
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不進化人體才是真的不道德，
15:23
even though it can be scary,
even though it can be challenging,
even though it can be challenging,
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即使進化可能很可怕，
即使進化可能很困難，
即使進化可能很困難，
15:27
but it's what's going
to allow us to explore, live
to allow us to explore, live
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但進化可以讓我們探索、生存，
15:30
and get to places
we can't even dream of today,
we can't even dream of today,
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到達當今無法想像的地方，
15:33
but which our great-great-great-great-
grandchildren might someday.
grandchildren might someday.
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但也許我們的曾曾曾曾孫子
有朝一日才能辦到。
有朝一日才能辦到。
15:37
Thank you very much.
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非常感謝。
15:38
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Juan Enriquez - FuturistJuan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society.
Why you should listen
A broad thinker who studies the intersections of these fields, Enriquez has a talent for bridging disciplines to build a coherent look ahead. He is the managing director of Excel Venture Management, a life sciences VC firm. He recently published (with Steve Gullans) Evolving Ourselves: How Unnatural Selection and Nonrandom Mutation Are Shaping Life on Earth. The book describes a world where humans increasingly shape their environment, themselves and other species.
Enriquez is a member of the board of Synthetic Genomics, which recently introduced the smallest synthetic living cell. Called “JCVI-syn 3.0,” it has 473 genes (about half the previous smallest cell). The organism would die if one of the genes is removed. In other words, this is the minimum genetic instruction set for a living organism.
Juan Enriquez | Speaker | TED.com