ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.

Why you should listen

Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.

What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.

Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.

Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)

Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.

Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.


More profile about the speaker
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com
TEDxSummit

Hans Rosling: Religions and babies

Hans Rosling: Religije i bebe

Filmed:
2,912,376 views

Hans Rosling se zapitao: Da li neke religije imaju višu stopu reprodukcije nego druge -- i kako to utiče na globalni rast populacije? Govoreći na TEDxSummit u Dohi u Kataru, prikazao je podatke u grafikonima kroz vrijeme, poredeći religije. Sa njegovim prepoznatljivim humorom i oštroumnošću, Hans dolazi do iznenađujućeg zaključka o stopama fertilnosti u svijetu.
- Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:16
I'm going to talk about religionreligija.
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Govoriću o religiji.
00:20
But it's a broadširok and very delicatedelikatna subjectpredmet,
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Ali to je široka i veoma osjetljiva tema,
00:25
so I have to limitograničenje myselfja.
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tako da se moram ograničiti.
00:27
And thereforestoga I will limitograničenje myselfja
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Stoga ću se ograničiti
00:29
to only talk about the linkslinkovi betweenizmeđu religionreligija and sexualityseksualnost.
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da govorim samo o vezi između religije i seksualnosti.
00:33
(LaughterSmijeh)
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(Smijeh)
00:35
This is a very seriousozbiljan talk.
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Ovo je veoma ozbiljan govor.
00:38
So I will talk of what I rememberzapamtite as the mostnajviše wonderfuldivno.
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Tako da ću govoriti o onome čega se sjećam kao najčudesnijeg.
00:42
It's when the youngmladi couplepar whisperšapat,
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Kada mladi par šapuće,
00:44
"TonightVečeras we are going to make a babybeba."
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"Noćas ćemo praviti bebu."
00:47
My talk will be about the impactuticaj of religionsreligije
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Moj govor će biti o utjecaju religija
00:53
on the numberbroj of babiesbebe perper womanžena.
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na broj beba u odnosu na broj žena.
00:57
This is indeedzaista importantbitan,
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To je zaista važno,
00:58
because everyonesvi understandsrazume
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jer svi razumiju
01:00
that there is some sortsortiraj of limitograničenje
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da postoji neka vrsta limita
01:02
on how manymnogi people we can be on this planetplaneta.
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koliko ljudi može živjeti na ovoj planeti.
01:05
And there are some people
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I postoje ljudi
01:07
who say that the worldsvet populationstanovništvo is growingraste like this --
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koji kažu da će populacija rasti ovako --
01:11
threetri billionmilijardu in 1960,
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tri miljarde 1960.,
01:13
sevensedam billionmilijardu just last yeargodina --
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sedam milijardi upravo prošle godine --
01:15
and it will continueNastavite to growraste
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i da će nastaviti da raste
01:17
because there are religionsreligije that stop womenžene from havingimati fewnekoliko babiesbebe,
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jer postoje religije koje ženama ne dozvoljavaju da imaju manje djece,
01:21
and it maymože continueNastavite like this.
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i to može da se nastavi ovako.
01:23
To what extentobim are these people right?
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Koliko su ovi ljudi u pravu?
01:27
When I was bornrođen there was lessmanje than one billionmilijardu childrendjeca in the worldsvet,
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Kada sam ja rođen bilo je manje od jedne milijarde djece u svijetu
01:32
and todaydanas, 2000, there's almostgotovo two billionmilijardu.
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i danas, 2000., ima ih skoro dvije milijarde.
01:36
What has happeneddogodilo se sinceod tada,
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Šta se od tada desilo,
01:38
and what do the expertsstručnjaci predictpredviđaju will happenda se desi
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i šta eksperti predviđaju da će se desiti
01:40
with the numberbroj of childrendjeca duringtokom this centuryvek?
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sa brojem djece tokom ovog stoljeća?
01:43
This is a quizkviz. What do you think?
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Ovo je kviz. Šta vi mislite?
01:45
Do you think it will decreasesmanjenje to one billionmilijardu?
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Da li mislite da će se broj smanjiti na jednu milijardu?
01:49
Will it remainostaje the sameisto and be two billionmilijardu by the endkraj of the centuryvek?
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Da li će ostati isti i biti dvije milijarde do kraja vijeka?
01:53
Will the numberbroj of childrendjeca increasepovećati eachsvaki yeargodina up to 15 yearsgodine,
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Hoće li se broj djece povećavati svake godine narednih15 godina
01:57
or will it continueNastavite in the sameisto fastbrzo ratestopa
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ili će nastaviti rasti po istoj brzoj stopi
01:59
and be fourčetiri billionmilijardu childrendjeca up there?
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i dostići četiri milijarde, ovdje?
02:02
I will tell you by the endkraj of my speechgovor.
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Do kraja mog govora reći ću vam odgovor.
02:05
But now, what does religionreligija have to do with it?
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Ali sada, kakve veze ima religija s tim?
02:10
When you want to classifyklasifikujte religionreligija,
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Kada želite napraviti klasifikaciju religija,
02:13
it's more difficultteško than you think.
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to je teže nego što mislite.
02:14
You go to WikipediaWikipedia and the first mapkarta you find is this.
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Odete na Wikipediju i prva mapa koju vidite je ova.
02:17
It dividesdijeli the worldsvet into AbrahamicAbrahamske religionsreligije and EasternIstočne religionreligija,
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Ona dijeli svijet na abrahamične i istočne religije,
02:23
but that's not detaileddetaljne enoughdosta.
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ali to nije dovoljno detaljno.
02:25
So we wentotišao on and we lookedpogledao in WikipediaWikipedia, we foundpronađeno this mapkarta.
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Zato smo nastavili tražiti na Wikipediji, našli smo ovu mapu.
02:28
But that subdividesizdvojeno ChristianityKršćanstvo, IslamIslam and BuddhismBudizam
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Ali ona dalje dijeli Kršćanstvo, Islam i Budizam
02:33
into manymnogi subgroupspodgrupa,
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u mnogo podgrupa,
02:35
whichšto was too detaileddetaljne.
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koje su suviše detaljne.
02:36
ThereforeStoga at GapminderGapminder we madenapravljen our ownvlastiti mapkarta,
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Zato smo na Gapminderu napravili našu mapu,
02:40
and it looksizgleda like this.
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i ona izgleda ovako.
02:42
EachSvaki country'szemlje a bubblebalon.
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Svaka zemlja je predstavljena mjehurićem.
02:45
The sizeveličina is the populationstanovništvo -- bigveliki ChinaKina, bigveliki IndiaIndija here.
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Veličina predstavlja populaciju - velika Kina, velika Indija ovdje.
02:49
And the colorboja now is the majorityvećina religionreligija.
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I boja je većinska religija.
02:53
It's the religionreligija where more than 50 percentprocenta of the people
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To je religija za koju više od 50 procenata populacije
02:56
say that they belongpripadaju.
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kaže da pripada.
02:57
It's EasternIstočne religionreligija in IndiaIndija and ChinaKina and neighboringsusjedne AsianAzijski countrieszemlje.
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To su istočne religije u Indiji i Kini i susjednim azijskim zemljama.
03:02
IslamIslam is the majorityvećina religionreligija
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Islam je većinska religija
03:04
all the way from the AtlanticAtlantik OceanOcean acrosspreko the MiddleSrednji EastIstok,
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od Atlanskog okeana preko Bliskog istoka,
03:08
SouthernJužni EuropeEuropa and throughkroz AsiaAsia
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južne Evrope i kroz Aziju
03:10
all the way to IndonesiaIndonezija.
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sve do Indonezije.
03:12
That's where we find IslamicIslamski majorityvećina.
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Tu nalazimo islamsku većinu.
03:15
And ChristianKršćanski majorityvećina religionsreligije, we see in these countrieszemlje. They are blueplavo.
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I kršćanska religija većine, vidimo je u ovim zemljama. One su plave.
03:20
And that is mostnajviše countrieszemlje in AmericaAmerika and EuropeEuropa,
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I to je većina zemalja u Americi i Evropi,
03:24
manymnogi countrieszemlje in AfricaAfrika and a fewnekoliko in AsiaAsia.
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mnoge zemlje u Africi i poneka u Aziji.
03:28
The whitebela here are countrieszemlje whichšto cannotne može be classifiedklasificiran,
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Bijelom bojom su predstavljene zemlje koje se ne mogu klasifikovati,
03:30
because one religionreligija does not reachdostignuti 50 percentprocenta
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jer jedna religija nema većinu od preko 5o procenata
03:33
or there is doubtsumnja about the datapodaci or there's some other reasonrazlog.
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ili ako postoji sumnja u podatke ili neki drugi razlog.
03:36
So we were carefulpažljiv with that.
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Tako da smo bili pažljivi sa tim.
03:38
So bearnositi with our simplicityjednostavnost now when I take you over to this shotubijen.
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Zato pratite naše pojednostavljenje i provešću vas kroz ovaj prikaz.
03:42
This is in 1960.
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Ovo je 1960.
03:44
And now I showshow the numberbroj of babiesbebe perper womanžena here:
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Sada pokazujem broj beba po svakoj ženi ovdje:
03:48
two, fourčetiri or sixšest --
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dva, četiri ili šest --
03:51
manymnogi babiesbebe, fewnekoliko babiesbebe.
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mnogo beba, manje beba.
03:53
And here the incomeprihod perper personosoba in comparableuporediv dollarsdolara.
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I ovdje je prihod po osobi u usporedivim dolarima.
03:56
The reasonrazlog for that is that manymnogi people say you have to get richbogat first
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Razlog za to je to što mnogo ljudi kaže da se prvo treba obogatiti
04:00
before you get fewnekoliko babiesbebe.
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prije nego što se dobiju djeca.
04:01
So lownisko incomeprihod here, highvisoka incomeprihod there.
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Tako da je niži prihod ovdje, visoki prihodi ovdje.
04:05
And indeedzaista in 1960,
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I zaista u 1960.,
04:07
you had to be a richbogat ChristianKršćanski to have fewnekoliko babiesbebe.
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trebalo je da budete bogati kršćanin da biste imali manje beba.
04:09
The exceptionizuzetak was JapanJapan.
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Izuzetak je bio Japan.
04:12
JapanJapan here was regardedsmatrano as an exceptionizuzetak.
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Japan ovdje posmatramo kao izuzetak.
04:15
OtherwiseU suprotnom it was only ChristianKršćanski countrieszemlje.
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Inače to je bilo tako samo u krćanskim zemljama.
04:17
But there was alsotakođe manymnogi ChristianKršćanski countrieszemlje
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Ali bilo je mnogo kršćanskih zemalja
04:19
that had sixšest to sevensedam babiesbebe perper womanžena.
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u kojima je bilo šest ili sedam beba po ženi.
04:22
But they were in LatinLatinski AmericaAmerika or they were in AfricaAfrika.
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One su ipak, bile su Latinskoj Americi ili u Africi.
04:27
And countrieszemlje with IslamIslam as the majorityvećina religionreligija,
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I zemlje u kojima je Islam većinska religija,
04:31
all of them almostgotovo had sixšest to sevensedam childrendjeca perper womanžena,
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svaka od njih je imala šestoro do sedmoro djece po ženi,
04:36
irregardlessbezobzirce of the incomeprihod levelnivo.
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bez obzira na nivo prihoda.
04:38
And all the EasternIstočne religionsreligije exceptosim JapanJapan had the sameisto levelnivo.
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Takođe i sve istočnjačke religije, izuzev Japana, imale su isti nivo.
04:43
Now let's see what has happeneddogodilo se in the worldsvet.
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Pogledajmo sada šta se dogodilo u svijetu.
04:45
I startpočnite the worldsvet, and here we go.
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Pokrećem svijet, i idemo.
04:46
Now 1962 -- can you see they're gettingdobivanje a little richerbogatiji,
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Sada u 1962. -- možete vidjeti da postaju malo bogatiji,
04:50
but the numberbroj of babiesbebe perper womanžena is fallingpada?
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ali da broj beba po ženi opada?
04:52
Look at ChinaKina. They're fallingpada fairlypošteno fastbrzo.
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Pogledajte Kinu. Oni opadaju prilično brzo.
04:55
And all of the MuslimMuslimanska majorityvećina countrieszemlje acrosspreko the incomeprihod are comingdolaze down,
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U svim islamskim zemljama nastaje pad u odnosu na nivo prihoda,
04:59
as do the ChristianKršćanski majorityvećina countrieszemlje in the middlesrednji incomeprihod rangeopseg.
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kao i zemljama sa kršćanskom većinom sa srednjim prihodom.
05:04
And when we enterunesite into this centuryvek,
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Kada uđemo u ovaj vijek,
05:07
you'llti ćeš find more than halfpola of mankindčovječanstvo down here.
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naći ćete više od pola čovječanstva ovdje.
05:10
And by 2010, we are actuallyzapravo 80 percentprocenta of humansljudi
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Do 2010., 80 procenata ljudi, zapravo
05:15
who liveuživo in countrieszemlje with about two childrendjeca perper womanžena.
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živi u zemljama sa oko 2 djeteta po ženi.
05:19
(ApplausePljesak)
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(Aplauz)
05:23
It's a quitesasvim amazingNeverovatno developmentrazvoj whichšto has happeneddogodilo se.
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Prilično je zapanjujući razvoj koji se desio.
05:27
(ApplausePljesak)
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(Aplauz)
05:28
And these are countrieszemlje from UnitedUjedinjeni StatesDržava here,
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I ovo su zemlje od Sjedinjenih država ovdje,
05:31
with $40,000 perper capitacapita,
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sa 40 hiljada dolara po glavi stanovnika,
05:34
FranceFrancuska, RussiaRusija, IranIran,
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Francuska, Rusija, Iran,
05:37
MexicoMeksiko, TurkeyTurska, AlgeriaAlžir,
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Meksiko, Turska, Alžir,
05:40
IndonesiaIndonezija, IndiaIndija
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Indonezija, Indija
05:42
and all the way to BangladeshBangladeš and VietnamVijetnam,
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i sve do Bangladeša i Vijetnama,
05:45
whichšto has lessmanje than fivepet percentprocenta of the incomeprihod perper personosoba of the UnitedUjedinjeni StatesDržava
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koje imaju manje od pet procenata prihoda po glavi stanovnika u poređenju sa SAD-om
05:49
and the sameisto amountiznos of babiesbebe perper womanžena.
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i isti broj beba po jednoj ženi.
05:52
I can tell you that the datapodaci on the numberbroj of childrendjeca perper womanžena
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Mogu vam reći da je podatak o broju djece po ženi
05:56
is surprisinglyiznenađujuće good in all countrieszemlje.
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iznenađujuće dobar u svim zemljama.
05:58
We get that from the censuspopis datapodaci.
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Dobijamo ga popisom stanovništva.
06:00
It's not one of these statisticsstatistike whichšto is very doubtfulupitno.
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To nije jedna od onih sumnjivih statistika.
06:03
So what we can concludezaključiti
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Tako da možemo zaključiti
06:04
is you don't have to get richbogat to have fewnekoliko childrendjeca.
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da ne morate biti bogati da biste imali manje djece.
06:07
It has happeneddogodilo se acrosspreko the worldsvet.
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To se dešava širom svijeta.
06:09
And then when we look at religionsreligije,
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I kada pogledamo religije,
06:12
we can see that the EasternIstočne religionsreligije,
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možemo vidjeti da u istočnjačkim religijama
06:15
indeedzaista there's not one singlesingl countryzemlju with a majorityvećina of that religionreligija
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zaista nema ni jedne zemlje
06:18
that has more than threetri childrendjeca.
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koja ima više od troje djece.
06:19
WhereasBudući da je with IslamIslam as a majorityvećina religionreligija and ChristianityKršćanstvo,
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Istovremeno, tamo gdje su Islam i Kršćanstvo većinske religije
06:24
you see countrieszemlje all the way.
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imate zemlje u svim kategorijama.
06:25
But there's no majormajor differencerazlika.
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Ali nema veće razlike.
06:27
There's no majormajor differencerazlika betweenizmeđu these religionsreligije.
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Nema veće razlike između ovih religija.
06:31
There is a differencerazlika with incomeprihod.
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Ima razlike u prihodima.
06:33
The countrieszemlje whichšto have manymnogi babiesbebe perper womanžena here,
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Zemlje koje imaju mnogo beba po ženi ovdje,
06:37
they have quitesasvim lownisko incomeprihod.
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one imaju prilično niske prihode.
06:39
MostVećina of them are in sub-SaharanSubsaharske AfricaAfrika.
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Većina ih je u subsaharskoj Africi.
06:42
But there are alsotakođe countrieszemlje here
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Ali tu su takođe ovdje i zemlje
06:45
like GuatemalaGvatemala, like PapuaPapua NewNovi GuineaGvineja,
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poput Gvatemale, poput Papua Nove Gvineje,
06:49
like YemenJemen and AfghanistanAfganistan.
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poput Jemena i Afganistana.
06:52
ManyMnogi think that AfghanistanAfganistan here and CongoKongo,
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Mnogi bi pomislili da Afganistan i Kongo,
06:56
whichšto have sufferedpatila severeozbiljna conflictssukobi,
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koji su pretrpjeli teške sukobe,
06:59
that they don't have fastbrzo populationstanovništvo growthrast.
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da oni nemaju brz rast populacije.
07:02
It's the other way around.
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Zapravo je suprotno.
07:04
In the worldsvet todaydanas, it's the countrieszemlje that have the highestnajviše mortalitysmrtnost ratesstope
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U današnjem svijetu, zemlje koje imaju najviše stope smrtnosti
07:08
that have the fastestnajbrže populationstanovništvo growthrast.
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imaju najbrži rast populacije.
07:10
Because the deathsmrt of a childdete is compensatednadoknaditi by one more childdete.
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Jer je smrt djeteta kompenzirana djetetom više.
07:14
These countrieszemlje have sixšest childrendjeca perper womanžena.
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Ove zemlje imaju šestoro djece po ženi.
07:17
They have a sadtužan deathsmrt ratestopa of one to two childrendjeca perper womanžena.
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One imaju tužnu stopu smrtnosti od jedno do dvoje djece po ženi.
07:21
But 30 yearsgodine from now, AfghanistanAfganistan will go from 30 millionmiliona to 60 millionmiliona.
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Ali za 30 godina, Afganistan će povećati broj stanovnika sa 30 na 60 miliona.
07:25
CongoKongo will go from 60 to 120.
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Kongo će povećati stanovništvo sa 60 na 120.
07:28
That's where we have the fastbrzo populationstanovništvo growthrast.
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Tu imamo najbrži rast populacije.
07:31
And manymnogi think that these countrieszemlje are stagnantstajaćica, but they are not.
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I mnogi misle da ove zemlje stagniraju, ali to nije tačno.
07:35
Let me compareuporedite SenegalSenegal, a MuslimMuslimanska dominateddominira countryzemlju,
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Hajde da uporedimo Senegal, zemlju sa muslimanskom većinom,
07:39
with a ChristianKršćanski dominateddominira countryzemlju, GhanaGana.
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sa Ganom, u kojoj su kršćani dominantni.
07:41
I take them backwardsunazad here to theirnjihova independencenezavisnost,
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Vratiću ih unazad do njihove nezavisnosti,
07:45
when they were up here in the beginningpočetak of the 1960s.
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kada su bile ovdje gore početkom 60-ih.
07:49
Just look what they have donezavršeno.
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Samo pogledajte šta su uradili.
07:51
It's an amazingNeverovatno improvementpoboljšanje,
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To je zapanjujući napredak,
07:52
from sevensedam childrendjeca perper womanžena,
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od sedmoro djece po ženi,
07:55
they'veoni su gonenestao all the way down to betweenizmeđu fourčetiri and fivepet.
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spustili su se ovamo dolje na četvoro i petoro.
07:58
It's a tremendousogroman improvementpoboljšanje.
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To je ogroman napredak.
07:59
So what does it take?
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Zbog čega je to tako?
08:01
Well we know quitesasvim well what is neededpotrebno in these countrieszemlje.
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Dobro znamo šta je potrebno u ovim zemljama.
08:04
You need to have childrendjeca to surviveopstaju.
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Morate imati djecu da bi preživjeli.
08:07
You need to get out of the deepestduboko povertysiromaštvo
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Morate izaći iz najdubljeg siromaštva
08:09
so childrendjeca are not of importancevažnost for work in the familyporodica.
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kako djeca više nisu neophodna za rad u porodici.
08:13
You need to have accesspristup to some familyporodica planningplaniranje.
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Morate imati pristup nekakvom planiranju porodice.
08:16
And you need the fourthčetvrto factorfaktor, whichšto perhapsmožda is the mostnajviše importantbitan factorfaktor.
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I potreban vam je četvrti, možda najvažniji faktor.
08:20
But let me illustrateilustrirati that fourthčetvrto factorfaktor
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Ali dozvolite mi da ilustrujem taj četvrti faktor
08:23
by looking at QatarKatar.
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posmatrajući Katar.
08:25
Here we have QatarKatar todaydanas, and there we have BangladeshBangladeš todaydanas.
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Ovdje imamo današnji Katar, a tamo je Bangladeš.
08:29
If I take these countrieszemlje back to the yearsgodine of theirnjihova independencenezavisnost,
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Vratiću ove zemlje unazad do godine njihove nezavisnosti,
08:33
whichšto is almostgotovo the sameisto yeargodina -- '71, '72 --
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što je otprilike u isto vrijeme -- 71., 72. --
08:36
it's a quitesasvim amazingNeverovatno developmentrazvoj whichšto had happeneddogodilo se.
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prilično je zapanjujući razvoj koji se dogodio.
08:40
Look at BangladeshBangladeš and QatarKatar.
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Pogledajmo Bangladeš i Katar.
08:41
With so differentdrugačiji incomesprihodi, it's almostgotovo the sameisto droppad
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Sa potpuno različitim prihodima, skoro je jednak pad
08:45
in numberbroj of babiesbebe perper womanžena.
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u broju beba po jednoj ženi.
08:47
And what is the reasonrazlog in QatarKatar?
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I šta je razlog tome u Kataru?
08:49
Well I do as I always do.
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Dakle, uradiću ono što uvijek radim.
08:50
I wentotišao to the statisticalstatistički authorityautoritet of QatarKatar, to theirnjihova webpageweb-stranice --
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Otišao sam na internet stranice statističkih institucija Katara --
08:54
It's a very good webpageweb-stranice. I recommendpreporučeno it --
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imaju veoma dobru stranicu, preporučujem je --
08:56
and I lookedpogledao up -- oh yeah, you can have lots of funzabava here --
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i kad sam pogledao - o da, možete se dobro zabaviti ovdje --
09:03
and providedobezbeđeni freebesplatno of chargepunjenje, I foundpronađeno Qatar'sKatar socialsocijalno trendstrendovi.
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i preuzeo sam potpuno besplatno katarske socijalne trendove.
09:07
Very interestingzanimljivo. Lots to readpročitajte.
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Veoma interesantno. Mnogo toga za pročitati.
09:09
I foundpronađeno fertilityplodnost at birthrođenje, and I lookedpogledao at totalukupno fertilityplodnost ratestopa perper womanžena.
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Pronašao sam ukupnu stopu plodnosti po ženi.
09:14
These are the scholarsZnanstvenici and expertsstručnjaci in the governmentvlada agencyagencija in QatarKatar,
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Ovo su naučnici i eksperti u zvaničnoj statističkoj agenciji Katara
09:17
and they say the mostnajviše importantbitan factorsfaktori are:
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i oni kažu da su najvažniji faktori sljedeći:
09:20
"IncreasedPovećana agestarost at first marriagebrak,
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"Starija dob pri stupanju u prvi brak,
09:22
increasedpovećan educationalobrazovni levelnivo of QatariKATARSKI womanžena
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povećan nivo obrazovanja katarske žene
09:25
and more womenžene integratedintegrirano in the laborrad forcesila."
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i više žena integrisano u radnoj snazi."
09:28
I couldn'tnije mogao agreeslažem se more. ScienceZnanost couldn'tnije mogao agreeslažem se more.
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Potpuno se slažem. Nauka je potpuno saglasna sa ovim.
09:32
This is a countryzemlju that indeedzaista has gonenestao throughkroz
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Ovo je zemlja koja je uistinu prošla kroz
09:34
a very, very interestingzanimljivo modernizationmodernizacija.
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veoma, veoma zanimljivu modernizaciju.
09:38
So what it is, is these fourčetiri:
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Dakle, tu su nabrojana četiri faktora:
09:41
ChildrenDjeca should surviveopstaju, childrendjeca shouldn'tne bi trebalo be neededpotrebno for work,
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djeca bi trebalo da prežive, ne bi trebalo da su potrebna za rad,
09:44
womenžene should get educationobrazovanje and joinpridruži se the laborrad forcesila
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žene bi trebalo da dobiju obrazovanje i da se priključe radnoj snazi
09:47
and familyporodica planningplaniranje should be accessiblepristupačno.
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i planiranje porodice bi trebalo biti dostupno.
09:49
Now look again at this.
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Pogledajmo to sad ponovo.
09:52
The averageprosek numberbroj of childrendjeca in the worldsvet
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Prosječan broj djece u svijetu je
09:55
is like in ColombiaKolumbija -- it's 2.4 todaydanas.
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kao u Kolumbiji -- danas je 2,4.
09:58
There are countrieszemlje up here whichšto are very poorsiromašno.
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Postoje zemlje koje su veoma siromašne.
10:01
And that's where familyporodica planningplaniranje, better childdete survivalpreživljavanje is neededpotrebno.
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I to je tamo gdje je potrebno planiranje porodice i bolja stopa preživljavanja djece.
10:05
I stronglysnažno recommendpreporučeno MelindaMelinda Gates'Gates' last TEDTalkTEDTalk.
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Iskreno preporučujem najnovije predavanje Melinde Gates na TED-u.
10:09
And here, down, there are manymnogi countrieszemlje whichšto are lessmanje than two childrendjeca perper womanžena.
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I ovdje, dolje, tu su mnoge zemlje koje imaju manje od dvoje djece po svakoj ženi.
10:14
So when I go back now to give you the answerodgovor of the quizkviz,
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Dakle, kad se vratim da vam odgovorim na kviz pitanje,
10:18
it's two.
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odgovor je dva.
10:19
We have reacheddostigao peakvrhunac childdete.
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Dostigli smo vrhunac broja djece.
10:22
The numberbroj of childrendjeca is not growingraste any longerduže in the worldsvet.
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Broj djece neće više rasti u svijetu.
10:25
We are still debatingdebata peakvrhunac oilulje,
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Još uvijek debatujemo oko vrhunca kad se radi o nafti,
10:27
but we have definitelyDefinitivno reacheddostigao peakvrhunac childdete.
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ali smo definitivno dostigli vrhunac kad se radi o djeci.
10:30
And the worldsvet populationstanovništvo will stop growingraste.
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I svjetska populacija će prestati rasti.
10:32
The UnitedUjedinjeni NationsNarodi PopulationStanovništvo DivisionPodjela has said
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Odjel za populaciju Ujedinjenih nacija je rekao
10:35
it will stop growingraste at 10 billionmilijardu.
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da će prestati rasti na nivou od 10 milijardi.
10:37
But why do they growraste if the numberbroj of childrendjeca doesn't growraste?
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Ali, zašto populacija raste ako se broj djece ne povećava?
10:41
Well I will showshow you here.
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Pokazaću vam ovdje.
10:43
I will use these cardkartica boxeskutije in whichšto your notebooksbilježnica camedošao.
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Koristiću ove kartonske kutije u kojima su stigli vaši notesi.
10:47
They are quitesasvim usefulkorisno for educationalobrazovni purposessvrhe.
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One su prilično korisne za edukacijske svrhe.
10:51
EachSvaki cardkartica boxbox is one billionmilijardu people.
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Svaka kutija predstavlja milijardu ljudi.
10:54
And there are two billionmilijardu childrendjeca in the worldsvet.
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I ovdje imamo dvije milijarde djece na svijetu.
10:57
There are two billionmilijardu youngmladi people betweenizmeđu 15 and 30.
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Dvije milijarde mladih između 15 i 30 godina.
11:04
These are roundedzaobljeni numbersbrojevi.
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Ovo su zaokruženi brojevi.
11:05
Then there is one billionmilijardu betweenizmeđu 30 and 45,
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Zatim imamo jednu milijardu onih između 30 i 45 godina,
11:10
almostgotovo one betweenizmeđu 45 and 60.
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i skoro jednu starosti 45 do 60 godina.
11:14
And then it's my boxbox.
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Zatim, tu je i moja kutija.
11:15
This is me: 60-plus-plus.
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Tu sam ja: preko 60.
11:18
We are here on topvrh.
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Mi smo na vrhu.
11:20
So what will happenda se desi now is what we call "the bigveliki fill-upispunite-up."
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Ono što će se desiti je nazvano "veliko popunjavanje".
11:25
You can see that it's like threetri billionmilijardu missingnestala here.
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Možemo vidjeti da oko tri milijarde ovdje nedostaje.
11:28
They are not missingnestala because they'veoni su diedumro; they were never bornrođen.
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Oni ne nedostaju zato što su umrli, nego zato što nisu ni rođeni.
11:32
Because before 1980, there were much fewermanje people bornrođen
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Zato što je prije 1980., bilo mnogo manje ljudi rođeno
11:36
than there were duringtokom the last 30 yearsgodine.
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nego u proteklih 30 godina.
11:39
So what will happenda se desi now is quitesasvim straightforwarddirektno.
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Ono što se dalje dešava je prilično jednostavno razumljivo.
11:42
The oldstari, sadlyNažalost, we will dieumri.
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Stari će, nažalost, umrijeti.
11:45
The restodmor of you, you will growraste olderstariji and you will get two billionmilijardu childrendjeca.
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Većina vas će odrasti i imaćete dvije milijarde djece.
11:50
Then the oldstari will dieumri.
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Zatim će stari umrijeti.
11:52
The restodmor will growraste olderstariji and get two billionmilijardu childrendjeca.
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Ostali će odrasti i dobiti dvije milijarde djece.
11:56
And then again the oldstari will dieumri and you will get two billionmilijardu childrendjeca.
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A onda će takođe stari umrijeti i dobiće dvije milijarde djece.
12:02
(ApplausePljesak)
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(Aplauz)
12:04
This is the great fill-upispunite-up.
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to je to veliko popunjavanje.
12:08
It's inevitableneizbežno.
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Neizbježno je.
12:11
And can you see that this increasepovećati tookuzela placemesto
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I možete li vidjeti da se ovo povećanje desilo
12:13
withoutbez life gettingdobivanje longerduže and withoutbez addingdodavanje childrendjeca?
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bez da se život produžavao i bez dodavanja djece?
12:18
ReligionReligija has very little to do with the numberbroj of babiesbebe perper womanžena.
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Religije imaju veoma malo veze sa brojem beba koje rađa svaka žena.
12:23
All the religionsreligije in the worldsvet are fullypotpuno capablesposoban
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Sve religije na svijetu su potpuno sposobne
12:26
to maintainodržavati theirnjihova valuesvrijednosti and adaptadaptirati to this newnovo worldsvet.
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održati njihove vrijednosti i prilagoditi se novom svijetu.
12:32
And we will be just 10 billionmilijardu in this worldsvet,
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Biće nas samo 10 milijardi na ovom svijetu,
12:37
if the poorestnajsiromašniji people get out of povertysiromaštvo,
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ako najsiromašniji izađu iz siromaštva,
12:40
theirnjihova childrendjeca surviveopstaju, they get accesspristup to familyporodica planningplaniranje.
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ako njihova djeca prežive i ako imaju pristup planiranju porodice.
12:44
That is neededpotrebno.
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To je potrebno.
12:45
But it's inevitableneizbežno that we will be two to threetri billionmilijardu more.
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Ali je neizbježno da će nas biti dvije ili tri milijarde više.
12:51
So when you discussdiskutovati and when you planplan
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Tako, kada diskutujete i kada planirate
12:54
for the resourcesresurse and the energyenergija neededpotrebno for the futurebudućnost,
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o resursima i energiji potrebnim za budućnost
12:58
for humančovjek beingsbića on this planetplaneta,
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za ljude na ovoj planeti,
13:00
you have to planplan for 10 billionmilijardu.
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morate ih planirati za 10 milijardi.
13:02
Thank you very much.
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Hvala mnogo.
13:04
(ApplausePljesak)
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(Aplauz)
Translated by Nela Kacmarcik
Reviewed by Tatjana Jevdjic

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.

Why you should listen

Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.

What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.

Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.

Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)

Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.

Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.


More profile about the speaker
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com