TEDxSummit
Hans Rosling: Religions and babies
Hans Rosling: Religije i bebe
Filmed:
Readability: 3.5
2,912,376 views
Hans Rosling se zapitao: Da li neke religije imaju višu stopu reprodukcije nego druge -- i kako to utiče na globalni rast populacije? Govoreći na TEDxSummit u Dohi u Kataru, prikazao je podatke u grafikonima kroz vrijeme, poredeći religije. Sa njegovim prepoznatljivim humorom i oštroumnošću, Hans dolazi do iznenađujućeg zaključka o stopama fertilnosti u svijetu.
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I'm going to talk about religion.
0
357
3865
Govoriću o religiji.
00:20
But it's a broad and very delicate subject,
1
4222
5252
Ali to je široka i veoma osjetljiva tema,
00:25
so I have to limit myself.
2
9474
1671
tako da se moram ograničiti.
00:27
And therefore I will limit myself
3
11145
2480
Stoga ću se ograničiti
00:29
to only talk about the links between religion and sexuality.
4
13625
4409
da govorim samo o vezi između religije i seksualnosti.
00:33
(Laughter)
5
18034
1566
(Smijeh)
00:35
This is a very serious talk.
6
19600
2560
Ovo je veoma ozbiljan govor.
00:38
So I will talk of what I remember as the most wonderful.
7
22160
4095
Tako da ću govoriti o onome čega se sjećam kao najčudesnijeg.
00:42
It's when the young couple whisper,
8
26255
2345
Kada mladi par šapuće,
00:44
"Tonight we are going to make a baby."
9
28600
3172
"Noćas ćemo praviti bebu."
00:47
My talk will be about the impact of religions
10
31772
5336
Moj govor će biti o utjecaju religija
00:53
on the number of babies per woman.
11
37108
4169
na broj beba u odnosu na broj žena.
00:57
This is indeed important,
12
41277
1665
To je zaista važno,
00:58
because everyone understands
13
42942
1530
jer svi razumiju
01:00
that there is some sort of limit
14
44472
2282
da postoji neka vrsta limita
01:02
on how many people we can be on this planet.
15
46754
3228
koliko ljudi može živjeti na ovoj planeti.
01:05
And there are some people
16
49982
1947
I postoje ljudi
01:07
who say that the world population is growing like this --
17
51929
3419
koji kažu da će populacija rasti ovako --
01:11
three billion in 1960,
18
55348
1807
tri miljarde 1960.,
01:13
seven billion just last year --
19
57155
2639
sedam milijardi upravo prošle godine --
01:15
and it will continue to grow
20
59794
1546
i da će nastaviti da raste
01:17
because there are religions that stop women from having few babies,
21
61340
3780
jer postoje religije koje ženama ne dozvoljavaju da imaju manje djece,
01:21
and it may continue like this.
22
65120
2403
i to može da se nastavi ovako.
01:23
To what extent are these people right?
23
67523
3902
Koliko su ovi ljudi u pravu?
01:27
When I was born there was less than one billion children in the world,
24
71425
4880
Kada sam ja rođen bilo je manje od jedne milijarde djece u svijetu
01:32
and today, 2000, there's almost two billion.
25
76305
4175
i danas, 2000., ima ih skoro dvije milijarde.
01:36
What has happened since,
26
80480
1702
Šta se od tada desilo,
01:38
and what do the experts predict will happen
27
82182
2695
i šta eksperti predviđaju da će se desiti
01:40
with the number of children during this century?
28
84877
2483
sa brojem djece tokom ovog stoljeća?
01:43
This is a quiz. What do you think?
29
87360
2618
Ovo je kviz. Šta vi mislite?
01:45
Do you think it will decrease to one billion?
30
89978
3902
Da li mislite da će se broj smanjiti na jednu milijardu?
01:49
Will it remain the same and be two billion by the end of the century?
31
93880
3828
Da li će ostati isti i biti dvije milijarde do kraja vijeka?
01:53
Will the number of children increase each year up to 15 years,
32
97708
3717
Hoće li se broj djece povećavati svake godine narednih15 godina
01:57
or will it continue in the same fast rate
33
101425
2504
ili će nastaviti rasti po istoj brzoj stopi
01:59
and be four billion children up there?
34
103929
2489
i dostići četiri milijarde, ovdje?
02:02
I will tell you by the end of my speech.
35
106418
3425
Do kraja mog govora reći ću vam odgovor.
02:05
But now, what does religion have to do with it?
36
109843
5022
Ali sada, kakve veze ima religija s tim?
02:10
When you want to classify religion,
37
114865
2332
Kada želite napraviti klasifikaciju religija,
02:13
it's more difficult than you think.
38
117197
1531
to je teže nego što mislite.
02:14
You go to Wikipedia and the first map you find is this.
39
118728
3204
Odete na Wikipediju i prva mapa koju vidite je ova.
02:17
It divides the world into Abrahamic religions and Eastern religion,
40
121932
5533
Ona dijeli svijet na abrahamične i istočne religije,
02:23
but that's not detailed enough.
41
127465
1772
ali to nije dovoljno detaljno.
02:25
So we went on and we looked in Wikipedia, we found this map.
42
129237
3809
Zato smo nastavili tražiti na Wikipediji, našli smo ovu mapu.
02:28
But that subdivides Christianity, Islam and Buddhism
43
133046
4646
Ali ona dalje dijeli Kršćanstvo, Islam i Budizam
02:33
into many subgroups,
44
137692
1603
u mnogo podgrupa,
02:35
which was too detailed.
45
139295
1505
koje su suviše detaljne.
02:36
Therefore at Gapminder we made our own map,
46
140800
3418
Zato smo na Gapminderu napravili našu mapu,
02:40
and it looks like this.
47
144218
2373
i ona izgleda ovako.
02:42
Each country's a bubble.
48
146591
3403
Svaka zemlja je predstavljena mjehurićem.
02:45
The size is the population -- big China, big India here.
49
149994
3424
Veličina predstavlja populaciju - velika Kina, velika Indija ovdje.
02:49
And the color now is the majority religion.
50
153418
4114
I boja je većinska religija.
02:53
It's the religion where more than 50 percent of the people
51
157532
3231
To je religija za koju više od 50 procenata populacije
02:56
say that they belong.
52
160763
1255
kaže da pripada.
02:57
It's Eastern religion in India and China and neighboring Asian countries.
53
162018
4717
To su istočne religije u Indiji i Kini i susjednim azijskim zemljama.
03:02
Islam is the majority religion
54
166735
1973
Islam je većinska religija
03:04
all the way from the Atlantic Ocean across the Middle East,
55
168708
3775
od Atlanskog okeana preko Bliskog istoka,
03:08
Southern Europe and through Asia
56
172483
2280
južne Evrope i kroz Aziju
03:10
all the way to Indonesia.
57
174763
2237
sve do Indonezije.
03:12
That's where we find Islamic majority.
58
177000
2917
Tu nalazimo islamsku većinu.
03:15
And Christian majority religions, we see in these countries. They are blue.
59
179917
4803
I kršćanska religija većine, vidimo je u ovim zemljama. One su plave.
03:20
And that is most countries in America and Europe,
60
184720
4025
I to je većina zemalja u Americi i Evropi,
03:24
many countries in Africa and a few in Asia.
61
188745
3670
mnoge zemlje u Africi i poneka u Aziji.
03:28
The white here are countries which cannot be classified,
62
192415
2680
Bijelom bojom su predstavljene zemlje koje se ne mogu klasifikovati,
03:30
because one religion does not reach 50 percent
63
195095
2625
jer jedna religija nema većinu od preko 5o procenata
03:33
or there is doubt about the data or there's some other reason.
64
197720
3357
ili ako postoji sumnja u podatke ili neki drugi razlog.
03:36
So we were careful with that.
65
201077
1760
Tako da smo bili pažljivi sa tim.
03:38
So bear with our simplicity now when I take you over to this shot.
66
202837
3858
Zato pratite naše pojednostavljenje i provešću vas kroz ovaj prikaz.
03:42
This is in 1960.
67
206695
2013
Ovo je 1960.
03:44
And now I show the number of babies per woman here:
68
208708
3532
Sada pokazujem broj beba po svakoj ženi ovdje:
03:48
two, four or six --
69
212240
3086
dva, četiri ili šest --
03:51
many babies, few babies.
70
215326
2191
mnogo beba, manje beba.
03:53
And here the income per person in comparable dollars.
71
217517
3181
I ovdje je prihod po osobi u usporedivim dolarima.
03:56
The reason for that is that many people say you have to get rich first
72
220698
3597
Razlog za to je to što mnogo ljudi kaže da se prvo treba obogatiti
04:00
before you get few babies.
73
224295
1670
prije nego što se dobiju djeca.
04:01
So low income here, high income there.
74
225965
3632
Tako da je niži prihod ovdje, visoki prihodi ovdje.
04:05
And indeed in 1960,
75
229597
1638
I zaista u 1960.,
04:07
you had to be a rich Christian to have few babies.
76
231235
2737
trebalo je da budete bogati kršćanin da biste imali manje beba.
04:09
The exception was Japan.
77
233972
2274
Izuzetak je bio Japan.
04:12
Japan here was regarded as an exception.
78
236246
3237
Japan ovdje posmatramo kao izuzetak.
04:15
Otherwise it was only Christian countries.
79
239483
2028
Inače to je bilo tako samo u krćanskim zemljama.
04:17
But there was also many Christian countries
80
241511
2209
Ali bilo je mnogo kršćanskih zemalja
04:19
that had six to seven babies per woman.
81
243720
2572
u kojima je bilo šest ili sedam beba po ženi.
04:22
But they were in Latin America or they were in Africa.
82
246292
5477
One su ipak, bile su Latinskoj Americi ili u Africi.
04:27
And countries with Islam as the majority religion,
83
251769
4173
I zemlje u kojima je Islam većinska religija,
04:31
all of them almost had six to seven children per woman,
84
255942
4630
svaka od njih je imala šestoro do sedmoro djece po ženi,
04:36
irregardless of the income level.
85
260572
2425
bez obzira na nivo prihoda.
04:38
And all the Eastern religions except Japan had the same level.
86
262997
4243
Takođe i sve istočnjačke religije, izuzev Japana, imale su isti nivo.
04:43
Now let's see what has happened in the world.
87
267240
1920
Pogledajmo sada šta se dogodilo u svijetu.
04:45
I start the world, and here we go.
88
269160
1920
Pokrećem svijet, i idemo.
04:46
Now 1962 -- can you see they're getting a little richer,
89
271080
3218
Sada u 1962. -- možete vidjeti da postaju malo bogatiji,
04:50
but the number of babies per woman is falling?
90
274298
2674
ali da broj beba po ženi opada?
04:52
Look at China. They're falling fairly fast.
91
276972
2173
Pogledajte Kinu. Oni opadaju prilično brzo.
04:55
And all of the Muslim majority countries across the income are coming down,
92
279145
4763
U svim islamskim zemljama nastaje pad u odnosu na nivo prihoda,
04:59
as do the Christian majority countries in the middle income range.
93
283908
4963
kao i zemljama sa kršćanskom većinom sa srednjim prihodom.
05:04
And when we enter into this century,
94
288871
2529
Kada uđemo u ovaj vijek,
05:07
you'll find more than half of mankind down here.
95
291400
3360
naći ćete više od pola čovječanstva ovdje.
05:10
And by 2010, we are actually 80 percent of humans
96
294760
4926
Do 2010., 80 procenata ljudi, zapravo
05:15
who live in countries with about two children per woman.
97
299686
4314
živi u zemljama sa oko 2 djeteta po ženi.
05:19
(Applause)
98
304000
3538
(Aplauz)
05:23
It's a quite amazing development which has happened.
99
307538
3960
Prilično je zapanjujući razvoj koji se desio.
05:27
(Applause)
100
311498
1377
(Aplauz)
05:28
And these are countries from United States here,
101
312875
3202
I ovo su zemlje od Sjedinjenih država ovdje,
05:31
with $40,000 per capita,
102
316077
2161
sa 40 hiljada dolara po glavi stanovnika,
05:34
France, Russia, Iran,
103
318238
2947
Francuska, Rusija, Iran,
05:37
Mexico, Turkey, Algeria,
104
321185
3652
Meksiko, Turska, Alžir,
05:40
Indonesia, India
105
324837
2225
Indonezija, Indija
05:42
and all the way to Bangladesh and Vietnam,
106
327062
2729
i sve do Bangladeša i Vijetnama,
05:45
which has less than five percent of the income per person of the United States
107
329791
4043
koje imaju manje od pet procenata prihoda po glavi stanovnika u poređenju sa SAD-om
05:49
and the same amount of babies per woman.
108
333834
3157
i isti broj beba po jednoj ženi.
05:52
I can tell you that the data on the number of children per woman
109
336991
3231
Mogu vam reći da je podatak o broju djece po ženi
05:56
is surprisingly good in all countries.
110
340222
2089
iznenađujuće dobar u svim zemljama.
05:58
We get that from the census data.
111
342311
1947
Dobijamo ga popisom stanovništva.
06:00
It's not one of these statistics which is very doubtful.
112
344258
3393
To nije jedna od onih sumnjivih statistika.
06:03
So what we can conclude
113
347651
1306
Tako da možemo zaključiti
06:04
is you don't have to get rich to have few children.
114
348957
2781
da ne morate biti bogati da biste imali manje djece.
06:07
It has happened across the world.
115
351738
2342
To se dešava širom svijeta.
06:09
And then when we look at religions,
116
354080
2578
I kada pogledamo religije,
06:12
we can see that the Eastern religions,
117
356658
2527
možemo vidjeti da u istočnjačkim religijama
06:15
indeed there's not one single country with a majority of that religion
118
359185
3000
zaista nema ni jedne zemlje
06:18
that has more than three children.
119
362185
1895
koja ima više od troje djece.
06:19
Whereas with Islam as a majority religion and Christianity,
120
364080
4052
Istovremeno, tamo gdje su Islam i Kršćanstvo većinske religije
06:24
you see countries all the way.
121
368132
1908
imate zemlje u svim kategorijama.
06:25
But there's no major difference.
122
370040
1778
Ali nema veće razlike.
06:27
There's no major difference between these religions.
123
371818
3502
Nema veće razlike između ovih religija.
06:31
There is a difference with income.
124
375320
2351
Ima razlike u prihodima.
06:33
The countries which have many babies per woman here,
125
377671
3929
Zemlje koje imaju mnogo beba po ženi ovdje,
06:37
they have quite low income.
126
381600
1932
one imaju prilično niske prihode.
06:39
Most of them are in sub-Saharan Africa.
127
383532
3431
Većina ih je u subsaharskoj Africi.
06:42
But there are also countries here
128
386963
2662
Ali tu su takođe ovdje i zemlje
06:45
like Guatemala, like Papua New Guinea,
129
389625
4117
poput Gvatemale, poput Papua Nove Gvineje,
06:49
like Yemen and Afghanistan.
130
393742
2806
poput Jemena i Afganistana.
06:52
Many think that Afghanistan here and Congo,
131
396548
3877
Mnogi bi pomislili da Afganistan i Kongo,
06:56
which have suffered severe conflicts,
132
400425
3450
koji su pretrpjeli teške sukobe,
06:59
that they don't have fast population growth.
133
403875
2757
da oni nemaju brz rast populacije.
07:02
It's the other way around.
134
406632
1777
Zapravo je suprotno.
07:04
In the world today, it's the countries that have the highest mortality rates
135
408409
3893
U današnjem svijetu, zemlje koje imaju najviše stope smrtnosti
07:08
that have the fastest population growth.
136
412302
2236
imaju najbrži rast populacije.
07:10
Because the death of a child is compensated by one more child.
137
414538
3988
Jer je smrt djeteta kompenzirana djetetom više.
07:14
These countries have six children per woman.
138
418526
2908
Ove zemlje imaju šestoro djece po ženi.
07:17
They have a sad death rate of one to two children per woman.
139
421434
4132
One imaju tužnu stopu smrtnosti od jedno do dvoje djece po ženi.
07:21
But 30 years from now, Afghanistan will go from 30 million to 60 million.
140
425566
3819
Ali za 30 godina, Afganistan će povećati broj stanovnika sa 30 na 60 miliona.
07:25
Congo will go from 60 to 120.
141
429385
3407
Kongo će povećati stanovništvo sa 60 na 120.
07:28
That's where we have the fast population growth.
142
432792
2891
Tu imamo najbrži rast populacije.
07:31
And many think that these countries are stagnant, but they are not.
143
435683
4345
I mnogi misle da ove zemlje stagniraju, ali to nije tačno.
07:35
Let me compare Senegal, a Muslim dominated country,
144
440028
3514
Hajde da uporedimo Senegal, zemlju sa muslimanskom većinom,
07:39
with a Christian dominated country, Ghana.
145
443542
2458
sa Ganom, u kojoj su kršćani dominantni.
07:41
I take them backwards here to their independence,
146
446000
3597
Vratiću ih unazad do njihove nezavisnosti,
07:45
when they were up here in the beginning of the 1960s.
147
449597
3683
kada su bile ovdje gore početkom 60-ih.
07:49
Just look what they have done.
148
453280
2098
Samo pogledajte šta su uradili.
07:51
It's an amazing improvement,
149
455378
1551
To je zapanjujući napredak,
07:52
from seven children per woman,
150
456929
2237
od sedmoro djece po ženi,
07:55
they've gone all the way down to between four and five.
151
459166
3065
spustili su se ovamo dolje na četvoro i petoro.
07:58
It's a tremendous improvement.
152
462231
1587
To je ogroman napredak.
07:59
So what does it take?
153
463818
1425
Zbog čega je to tako?
08:01
Well we know quite well what is needed in these countries.
154
465243
3597
Dobro znamo šta je potrebno u ovim zemljama.
08:04
You need to have children to survive.
155
468840
2489
Morate imati djecu da bi preživjeli.
08:07
You need to get out of the deepest poverty
156
471329
2613
Morate izaći iz najdubljeg siromaštva
08:09
so children are not of importance for work in the family.
157
473942
3578
kako djeca više nisu neophodna za rad u porodici.
08:13
You need to have access to some family planning.
158
477520
2871
Morate imati pristup nekakvom planiranju porodice.
08:16
And you need the fourth factor, which perhaps is the most important factor.
159
480391
4332
I potreban vam je četvrti, možda najvažniji faktor.
08:20
But let me illustrate that fourth factor
160
484723
2908
Ali dozvolite mi da ilustrujem taj četvrti faktor
08:23
by looking at Qatar.
161
487631
2101
posmatrajući Katar.
08:25
Here we have Qatar today, and there we have Bangladesh today.
162
489732
3800
Ovdje imamo današnji Katar, a tamo je Bangladeš.
08:29
If I take these countries back to the years of their independence,
163
493532
3637
Vratiću ove zemlje unazad do godine njihove nezavisnosti,
08:33
which is almost the same year -- '71, '72 --
164
497169
3071
što je otprilike u isto vrijeme -- 71., 72. --
08:36
it's a quite amazing development which had happened.
165
500240
3874
prilično je zapanjujući razvoj koji se dogodio.
08:40
Look at Bangladesh and Qatar.
166
504114
1806
Pogledajmo Bangladeš i Katar.
08:41
With so different incomes, it's almost the same drop
167
505920
3258
Sa potpuno različitim prihodima, skoro je jednak pad
08:45
in number of babies per woman.
168
509178
2114
u broju beba po jednoj ženi.
08:47
And what is the reason in Qatar?
169
511292
2003
I šta je razlog tome u Kataru?
08:49
Well I do as I always do.
170
513295
1659
Dakle, uradiću ono što uvijek radim.
08:50
I went to the statistical authority of Qatar, to their webpage --
171
514954
3772
Otišao sam na internet stranice statističkih institucija Katara --
08:54
It's a very good webpage. I recommend it --
172
518726
2131
imaju veoma dobru stranicu, preporučujem je --
08:56
and I looked up -- oh yeah, you can have lots of fun here --
173
520857
6491
i kad sam pogledao - o da, možete se dobro zabaviti ovdje --
09:03
and provided free of charge, I found Qatar's social trends.
174
527348
4067
i preuzeo sam potpuno besplatno katarske socijalne trendove.
09:07
Very interesting. Lots to read.
175
531415
2345
Veoma interesantno. Mnogo toga za pročitati.
09:09
I found fertility at birth, and I looked at total fertility rate per woman.
176
533760
4572
Pronašao sam ukupnu stopu plodnosti po ženi.
09:14
These are the scholars and experts in the government agency in Qatar,
177
538332
3551
Ovo su naučnici i eksperti u zvaničnoj statističkoj agenciji Katara
09:17
and they say the most important factors are:
178
541883
2655
i oni kažu da su najvažniji faktori sljedeći:
09:20
"Increased age at first marriage,
179
544538
1942
"Starija dob pri stupanju u prvi brak,
09:22
increased educational level of Qatari woman
180
546480
3025
povećan nivo obrazovanja katarske žene
09:25
and more women integrated in the labor force."
181
549505
3313
i više žena integrisano u radnoj snazi."
09:28
I couldn't agree more. Science couldn't agree more.
182
552818
3742
Potpuno se slažem. Nauka je potpuno saglasna sa ovim.
09:32
This is a country that indeed has gone through
183
556560
2517
Ovo je zemlja koja je uistinu prošla kroz
09:34
a very, very interesting modernization.
184
559077
3535
veoma, veoma zanimljivu modernizaciju.
09:38
So what it is, is these four:
185
562612
2625
Dakle, tu su nabrojana četiri faktora:
09:41
Children should survive, children shouldn't be needed for work,
186
565237
3083
djeca bi trebalo da prežive, ne bi trebalo da su potrebna za rad,
09:44
women should get education and join the labor force
187
568320
2902
žene bi trebalo da dobiju obrazovanje i da se priključe radnoj snazi
09:47
and family planning should be accessible.
188
571222
2273
i planiranje porodice bi trebalo biti dostupno.
09:49
Now look again at this.
189
573495
3388
Pogledajmo to sad ponovo.
09:52
The average number of children in the world
190
576883
2292
Prosječan broj djece u svijetu je
09:55
is like in Colombia -- it's 2.4 today.
191
579175
3422
kao u Kolumbiji -- danas je 2,4.
09:58
There are countries up here which are very poor.
192
582597
3037
Postoje zemlje koje su veoma siromašne.
10:01
And that's where family planning, better child survival is needed.
193
585634
3951
I to je tamo gdje je potrebno planiranje porodice i bolja stopa preživljavanja djece.
10:05
I strongly recommend Melinda Gates' last TEDTalk.
194
589585
3787
Iskreno preporučujem najnovije predavanje Melinde Gates na TED-u.
10:09
And here, down, there are many countries which are less than two children per woman.
195
593372
5459
I ovdje, dolje, tu su mnoge zemlje koje imaju manje od dvoje djece po svakoj ženi.
10:14
So when I go back now to give you the answer of the quiz,
196
598831
3612
Dakle, kad se vratim da vam odgovorim na kviz pitanje,
10:18
it's two.
197
602443
1542
odgovor je dva.
10:19
We have reached peak child.
198
603985
2529
Dostigli smo vrhunac broja djece.
10:22
The number of children is not growing any longer in the world.
199
606514
2889
Broj djece neće više rasti u svijetu.
10:25
We are still debating peak oil,
200
609403
1992
Još uvijek debatujemo oko vrhunca kad se radi o nafti,
10:27
but we have definitely reached peak child.
201
611395
2931
ali smo definitivno dostigli vrhunac kad se radi o djeci.
10:30
And the world population will stop growing.
202
614326
2723
I svjetska populacija će prestati rasti.
10:32
The United Nations Population Division has said
203
617049
2102
Odjel za populaciju Ujedinjenih nacija je rekao
10:35
it will stop growing at 10 billion.
204
619151
2440
da će prestati rasti na nivou od 10 milijardi.
10:37
But why do they grow if the number of children doesn't grow?
205
621591
4040
Ali, zašto populacija raste ako se broj djece ne povećava?
10:41
Well I will show you here.
206
625631
2446
Pokazaću vam ovdje.
10:43
I will use these card boxes in which your notebooks came.
207
628077
3775
Koristiću ove kartonske kutije u kojima su stigli vaši notesi.
10:47
They are quite useful for educational purposes.
208
631852
3834
One su prilično korisne za edukacijske svrhe.
10:51
Each card box is one billion people.
209
635686
2908
Svaka kutija predstavlja milijardu ljudi.
10:54
And there are two billion children in the world.
210
638594
2668
I ovdje imamo dvije milijarde djece na svijetu.
10:57
There are two billion young people between 15 and 30.
211
641262
6870
Dvije milijarde mladih između 15 i 30 godina.
11:04
These are rounded numbers.
212
648132
1470
Ovo su zaokruženi brojevi.
11:05
Then there is one billion between 30 and 45,
213
649602
5026
Zatim imamo jednu milijardu onih između 30 i 45 godina,
11:10
almost one between 45 and 60.
214
654628
3843
i skoro jednu starosti 45 do 60 godina.
11:14
And then it's my box.
215
658471
1624
Zatim, tu je i moja kutija.
11:15
This is me: 60-plus.
216
660095
2025
Tu sam ja: preko 60.
11:18
We are here on top.
217
662120
2162
Mi smo na vrhu.
11:20
So what will happen now is what we call "the big fill-up."
218
664282
5232
Ono što će se desiti je nazvano "veliko popunjavanje".
11:25
You can see that it's like three billion missing here.
219
669514
2988
Možemo vidjeti da oko tri milijarde ovdje nedostaje.
11:28
They are not missing because they've died; they were never born.
220
672502
4307
Oni ne nedostaju zato što su umrli, nego zato što nisu ni rođeni.
11:32
Because before 1980, there were much fewer people born
221
676809
4108
Zato što je prije 1980., bilo mnogo manje ljudi rođeno
11:36
than there were during the last 30 years.
222
680917
2757
nego u proteklih 30 godina.
11:39
So what will happen now is quite straightforward.
223
683674
3154
Ono što se dalje dešava je prilično jednostavno razumljivo.
11:42
The old, sadly, we will die.
224
686828
2797
Stari će, nažalost, umrijeti.
11:45
The rest of you, you will grow older and you will get two billion children.
225
689625
4655
Većina vas će odrasti i imaćete dvije milijarde djece.
11:50
Then the old will die.
226
694280
2608
Zatim će stari umrijeti.
11:52
The rest will grow older and get two billion children.
227
696888
4038
Ostali će odrasti i dobiti dvije milijarde djece.
11:56
And then again the old will die and you will get two billion children.
228
700926
5769
A onda će takođe stari umrijeti i dobiće dvije milijarde djece.
12:02
(Applause)
229
706695
2254
(Aplauz)
12:04
This is the great fill-up.
230
708949
3633
to je to veliko popunjavanje.
12:08
It's inevitable.
231
712582
2772
Neizbježno je.
12:11
And can you see that this increase took place
232
715354
2646
I možete li vidjeti da se ovo povećanje desilo
12:13
without life getting longer and without adding children?
233
718000
4803
bez da se život produžavao i bez dodavanja djece?
12:18
Religion has very little to do with the number of babies per woman.
234
722803
4905
Religije imaju veoma malo veze sa brojem beba koje rađa svaka žena.
12:23
All the religions in the world are fully capable
235
727708
3269
Sve religije na svijetu su potpuno sposobne
12:26
to maintain their values and adapt to this new world.
236
730977
5125
održati njihove vrijednosti i prilagoditi se novom svijetu.
12:32
And we will be just 10 billion in this world,
237
736102
5283
Biće nas samo 10 milijardi na ovom svijetu,
12:37
if the poorest people get out of poverty,
238
741385
3584
ako najsiromašniji izađu iz siromaštva,
12:40
their children survive, they get access to family planning.
239
744969
3173
ako njihova djeca prežive i ako imaju pristup planiranju porodice.
12:44
That is needed.
240
748142
1900
To je potrebno.
12:45
But it's inevitable that we will be two to three billion more.
241
750042
5715
Ali je neizbježno da će nas biti dvije ili tri milijarde više.
12:51
So when you discuss and when you plan
242
755757
3212
Tako, kada diskutujete i kada planirate
12:54
for the resources and the energy needed for the future,
243
758969
3403
o resursima i energiji potrebnim za budućnost
12:58
for human beings on this planet,
244
762372
2333
za ljude na ovoj planeti,
13:00
you have to plan for 10 billion.
245
764705
2157
morate ih planirati za 10 milijardi.
13:02
Thank you very much.
246
766862
2150
Hvala mnogo.
13:04
(Applause)
247
769012
6086
(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionaryIn Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.
Why you should listen
Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.
What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.
Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.
Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)
Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.
Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com