TEDxSummit
Hans Rosling: Religions and babies
Hans Rosling: Dini na watoto
Filmed:
Readability: 3.5
2,912,376 views
Hans Rosling alikua na swali: Kuna baadhi ya dini zenye kiwango cha juu cha uzazu zaidi ya nyingine -- na jinsi gani hii ina athiri ongezeko la idadi ya watu duniani? Akiongea kwenye TEDxSummit huko Doha, Qatar, alionyesha jedwali la takwimu kwa mda na katika dini. Akiwa na ishara yake ya ucheshi na ufahamu wa makini, Hans alifikia hatima ya kushangaza juu ya viwango vya uzazi duniani.
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
Nitaenda kuongelea kuhusu dini.
00:16
I'm going to talk about religion.
0
357
3865
00:20
But it's a broad and very delicate subject,
1
4222
5252
Lakini ni mada pana na nyeti sana,
hivyo itabidi nijiwekee mpaka.
00:25
so I have to limit myself.
2
9474
1671
00:27
And therefore I will limit myself
3
11145
2480
Na kwahiyo nitajiwekea mpaka
00:29
to only talk about the links between religion and sexuality.
4
13625
4409
kuongelea tu kuhusu uhusiano kati ya dini
na kujamiiana.
na kujamiiana.
00:33
(Laughter)
5
18034
1566
(Kicheko)
00:35
This is a very serious talk.
6
19600
2560
Haya ni majadiliano yenye uzito sana.
00:38
So I will talk of what I remember as the most wonderful.
7
22160
4095
Hivyo, nitaongelea juu ya ninachokumbuka
kua cha ajabu sana.
kua cha ajabu sana.
00:42
It's when the young couple whisper,
8
26255
2345
Ni pale wanandoa vijana walinong'oneza,
00:44
"Tonight we are going to make a baby."
9
28600
3172
"Usiku tutaenda kutengeneza mtoto."
00:47
My talk will be about the impact of religions
10
31772
5336
Maongezi yangu yatahusu athari ya dini
00:53
on the number of babies per woman.
11
37108
4169
kwa idadi ya watoto kwa mwanamke.
00:57
This is indeed important,
12
41277
1665
Hii ni muhimu kweli,
00:58
because everyone understands
13
42942
1530
kwa sababu kila mtu anaelewa
01:00
that there is some sort of limit
14
44472
2282
kua kuna aina fulani ya mpaka
01:02
on how many people we can be on this planet.
15
46754
3228
kwa jinsi watu wengi wanaweza kua kwenye
hii sayari.
hii sayari.
01:05
And there are some people
16
49982
1947
Na kuna baadhi ya watu
01:07
who say that the world population is growing like this --
17
51929
3419
wanaosema kua idadi ya watu duniani imekua
kama hivi --
kama hivi --
01:11
three billion in 1960,
18
55348
1807
bilioni tatu mwaka 1960,
01:13
seven billion just last year --
19
57155
2639
bilioni saba mwaka jana tu --
01:15
and it will continue to grow
20
59794
1546
na itaendelea kukua
01:17
because there are religions that stop women from having few babies,
21
61340
3780
kwa sababu kuna dini zinazozuia wanawake
kuwa na watoto wachache,
kuwa na watoto wachache,
01:21
and it may continue like this.
22
65120
2403
na inaweza kuendelea hivi.
01:23
To what extent are these people right?
23
67523
3902
Ni kwa kiasi gani hawa watu wako sahihi?
01:27
When I was born there was less than one billion children in the world,
24
71425
4880
Nilivyozaliwa kulikua na watoto chini ya
bilioni moja duniani,
bilioni moja duniani,
01:32
and today, 2000, there's almost two billion.
25
76305
4175
na leo, 2000, kuna karibia bilioni mbili.
01:36
What has happened since,
26
80480
1702
Nini kimetokea tangu hapo,
01:38
and what do the experts predict will happen
27
82182
2695
na nini wataalam wanatabiri kitatokea
01:40
with the number of children during this century?
28
84877
2483
na idadi ya watoto karne hii?
01:43
This is a quiz. What do you think?
29
87360
2618
Hili ni jaribio. Unafikiri nini?
01:45
Do you think it will decrease to one billion?
30
89978
3902
Unafikiri itapungua mpaka bilioni moja?
01:49
Will it remain the same and be two billion by the end of the century?
31
93880
3828
Itabaki sawa na kua bilioni mbili ifikapo
mwisho wa karne?
mwisho wa karne?
01:53
Will the number of children increase each year up to 15 years,
32
97708
3717
Idadi ya watoto itaongezeka kila mwaka
hadi miaka 15,
hadi miaka 15,
01:57
or will it continue in the same fast rate
33
101425
2504
au itaendelea na kiwango cha haraka
kile kile
kile kile
01:59
and be four billion children up there?
34
103929
2489
na kua watoto bilioni nne huko juu?
02:02
I will tell you by the end of my speech.
35
106418
3425
Nitawaambia ifikapo mwisho wa hotuba
yangu.
yangu.
02:05
But now, what does religion have to do with it?
36
109843
5022
Lakini sasa, dini inahusika vipi?
02:10
When you want to classify religion,
37
114865
2332
Unapotaka kuainisha dini,
02:13
it's more difficult than you think.
38
117197
1531
ni ngumu kuliko unavyofikiri.
02:14
You go to Wikipedia and the first map you find is this.
39
118728
3204
Unaenda Wikipedia na ramani ya kwanza
unayopata ni hii.
unayopata ni hii.
02:17
It divides the world into Abrahamic religions and Eastern religion,
40
121932
5533
Inagawanyisha dunia kwenye dini za
Ibrahimu na dini za Mashariki,
Ibrahimu na dini za Mashariki,
02:23
but that's not detailed enough.
41
127465
1772
lakini hio haina undani wa kutosha.
02:25
So we went on and we looked in Wikipedia, we found this map.
42
129237
3809
Hivyo tukaenda zaidi na kuangalia kwenye
Wikipedia, tukapata hii ramani.
Wikipedia, tukapata hii ramani.
02:28
But that subdivides Christianity, Islam and Buddhism
43
133046
4646
Lakni hio inaianisha Ukristo, Uislamu na
Ubuddha
Ubuddha
02:33
into many subgroups,
44
137692
1603
kwenye makundi mengi madogo,
02:35
which was too detailed.
45
139295
1505
ambayo yalikua ya kina sana.
02:36
Therefore at Gapminder we made our own map,
46
140800
3418
Kwa hiyo pale Gapminder tulitengeneza
ramani yetu,
ramani yetu,
02:40
and it looks like this.
47
144218
2373
Na inaonekana hivi.
02:42
Each country's a bubble.
48
146591
3403
Kila nchi ni puto.
02:45
The size is the population -- big China, big India here.
49
149994
3424
Ukubwa ni idadi ya watu -- China kubwa,
India kubwa hapa.
India kubwa hapa.
02:49
And the color now is the majority religion.
50
153418
4114
Na rangi sasa ni dini yenye wengi.
02:53
It's the religion where more than 50 percent of the people
51
157532
3231
Ni dini ambayo watu zaidi ya asilimia 50
02:56
say that they belong.
52
160763
1255
wanasema wanahusika.
02:57
It's Eastern religion in India and China and neighboring Asian countries.
53
162018
4717
Ni dini ya Mashariki huko India na
China na nchi jirani za Asia.
China na nchi jirani za Asia.
03:02
Islam is the majority religion
54
166735
1973
Uislamu ni dini ya wingi
03:04
all the way from the Atlantic Ocean across the Middle East,
55
168708
3775
njia yote kutoka Bahari ya Atlantiki
kupitia Mashariki ya Kati,
kupitia Mashariki ya Kati,
03:08
Southern Europe and through Asia
56
172483
2280
Ulaya ya Kusini na kupitia Asia
03:10
all the way to Indonesia.
57
174763
2237
njia yote mpaka Indonesia.
03:12
That's where we find Islamic majority.
58
177000
2917
Hapo ndipo tunapata Waislamu wengi.
03:15
And Christian majority religions, we see in these countries. They are blue.
59
179917
4803
Na dini nyingi za Kikristo, tunaona kwenye
hizi nchi. Ni za bluu.
hizi nchi. Ni za bluu.
03:20
And that is most countries in America and Europe,
60
184720
4025
Na hizo ni nchi nyingi za Marekani na
Ulaya,
Ulaya,
03:24
many countries in Africa and a few in Asia.
61
188745
3670
nchi nyingi za Afrika na chache za Asia.
03:28
The white here are countries which cannot be classified,
62
192415
2680
Nyeupe hapa ni nchi ambazo haziwezi kuwa
kuainishwa,
kuainishwa,
03:30
because one religion does not reach 50 percent
63
195095
2625
kwa sababu dini moja haifiki asilimia 50
03:33
or there is doubt about the data or there's some other reason.
64
197720
3357
au kuna shaka kuhusu takwimu au sababu
yoyote nyingine.
yoyote nyingine.
03:36
So we were careful with that.
65
201077
1760
Hivyo tulikua makini na hilo.
03:38
So bear with our simplicity now when I take you over to this shot.
66
202837
3858
Hivyo vumilia urahisi wetu sasa
nikiwapeleka kwenye hii picha.
nikiwapeleka kwenye hii picha.
03:42
This is in 1960.
67
206695
2013
Hii ni 1960.
03:44
And now I show the number of babies per woman here:
68
208708
3532
Na sasa naonyesha idadi ya watoto kwa
mwanamke hapa:
mwanamke hapa:
03:48
two, four or six --
69
212240
3086
mbili, nne au sita --
03:51
many babies, few babies.
70
215326
2191
watoto wengi, watoto wachache.
03:53
And here the income per person in comparable dollars.
71
217517
3181
Na hapa mapato kwa mtu ikilinganishwa
dola.
dola.
03:56
The reason for that is that many people say you have to get rich first
72
220698
3597
Sababu ya hio ni kua watu wengi wanasema
unapaswa kua tajiri kwanza
unapaswa kua tajiri kwanza
04:00
before you get few babies.
73
224295
1670
kabla hujapata watoto wachache.
04:01
So low income here, high income there.
74
225965
3632
Hivyo mapato ya chini hapa, mapato ya juu
pale.
pale.
04:05
And indeed in 1960,
75
229597
1638
Na kweli mwaka 1960,
04:07
you had to be a rich Christian to have few babies.
76
231235
2737
ulitakiwa uwe Mkristo tajiri kuwa na
watoto wachache.
watoto wachache.
04:09
The exception was Japan.
77
233972
2274
Ilikua isipokua Japan.
04:12
Japan here was regarded as an exception.
78
236246
3237
Japan hapa ilionekana ya kipekee.
04:15
Otherwise it was only Christian countries.
79
239483
2028
Vinginevyo ni nchi za Kikristo tu.
04:17
But there was also many Christian countries
80
241511
2209
Lakini pia kulikua na nchi nyingi za
Kikristo
Kikristo
04:19
that had six to seven babies per woman.
81
243720
2572
zilizokua na watoto sita mpaka saba kwa
mwanamke.
mwanamke.
04:22
But they were in Latin America or they were in Africa.
82
246292
5477
Lakini zilikua Amerika ya Kusini au
zilikua Afrika.
zilikua Afrika.
04:27
And countries with Islam as the majority religion,
83
251769
4173
Na nchi zenye Kiislamu kama dini kuu,
04:31
all of them almost had six to seven children per woman,
84
255942
4630
zote zilikua na karibia watoto sita mpaka
saba kwa mwanamke,
saba kwa mwanamke,
04:36
irregardless of the income level.
85
260572
2425
bila kujali kiwango cha mapato.
04:38
And all the Eastern religions except Japan had the same level.
86
262997
4243
Na dini zote za mashariki isipokua Japan
zilikua na kiwango sawa.
zilikua na kiwango sawa.
04:43
Now let's see what has happened in the world.
87
267240
1920
Sasa tuone kilichotokea kwenye dunia.
04:45
I start the world, and here we go.
88
269160
1920
Ninaanzisha dunia, na tunaenda hivi.
04:46
Now 1962 -- can you see they're getting a little richer,
89
271080
3218
Sasa 1962 -- unaweza kuona wanakua
tajiri zaidi,
tajiri zaidi,
04:50
but the number of babies per woman is falling?
90
274298
2674
lakini idadi ya watoto kwa mwanamke
inashuka?
inashuka?
04:52
Look at China. They're falling fairly fast.
91
276972
2173
Angalia China. Wanashuka kwa haraka sana.
04:55
And all of the Muslim majority countries across the income are coming down,
92
279145
4763
Na nchi zote zenye Wasilamu wengi katika
mapato zinakuja chini,
mapato zinakuja chini,
04:59
as do the Christian majority countries in the middle income range.
93
283908
4963
kama nchi zenye Wakristo wengi kwenye eneo
lenye mapato ya kati.
lenye mapato ya kati.
05:04
And when we enter into this century,
94
288871
2529
Na tunapoingia kwenye karne hii,
05:07
you'll find more than half of mankind down here.
95
291400
3360
utakuta zaidi ya nusu ya watu huku chini.
05:10
And by 2010, we are actually 80 percent of humans
96
294760
4926
Na ifikapo 2010, tuko kwa kweli asilimia
80 ya watu
80 ya watu
05:15
who live in countries with about two children per woman.
97
299686
4314
wanaoishi kwenye nchi zenye kama watoto
wawili kwa mwanamke.
wawili kwa mwanamke.
05:19
(Applause)
98
304000
3538
(Makofi)
05:23
It's a quite amazing development which has happened.
99
307538
3960
Ni maendeleo ya kushangaza kabisa ambayo
yametokea.
yametokea.
05:27
(Applause)
100
311498
1377
(Makofi)
05:28
And these are countries from United States here,
101
312875
3202
Na hizi ni nchi za Marekani hapa,
05:31
with $40,000 per capita,
102
316077
2161
zenye $40,000 kwa kila mtu,
05:34
France, Russia, Iran,
103
318238
2947
Ufaransa, Urusi, Uajemi,
05:37
Mexico, Turkey, Algeria,
104
321185
3652
Mexico, Uturuki, Algeria,
05:40
Indonesia, India
105
324837
2225
Indonesia, India
05:42
and all the way to Bangladesh and Vietnam,
106
327062
2729
na moja kwa moja mpaka Bangladesh na
Vietnam,
Vietnam,
05:45
which has less than five percent of the income per person of the United States
107
329791
4043
ambazo zinazo chini ya asilimia tano ya
mapato kwa mtu wa Marekani
mapato kwa mtu wa Marekani
05:49
and the same amount of babies per woman.
108
333834
3157
na kiasi sawa cha watoto kwa mwanamke.
05:52
I can tell you that the data on the number of children per woman
109
336991
3231
Naweza kukuambia kua takwimu ya idadi ya
watoto kwa mwanamke
watoto kwa mwanamke
05:56
is surprisingly good in all countries.
110
340222
2089
ina uzuri wa kushangaza nchi zote.
05:58
We get that from the census data.
111
342311
1947
Tunapata hizo kutoka takwimu za sensa.
06:00
It's not one of these statistics which is very doubtful.
112
344258
3393
Sio moja ya hizi takwimu zilizo na
mashaka sana.
mashaka sana.
06:03
So what we can conclude
113
347651
1306
Hivyo tunachohitimisha
06:04
is you don't have to get rich to have few children.
114
348957
2781
ni hauhitaji kua tajiri kuwa na watoto
wachache.
wachache.
06:07
It has happened across the world.
115
351738
2342
Imetokea katika dunia.
06:09
And then when we look at religions,
116
354080
2578
Na kisha tunapoangalia dini.
06:12
we can see that the Eastern religions,
117
356658
2527
tunaona kua dini za mashariki,
06:15
indeed there's not one single country with a majority of that religion
118
359185
3000
kwa kweli hakuna nchi hata moja yenye
wingi wa hio dini
wingi wa hio dini
06:18
that has more than three children.
119
362185
1895
ambayo ina zaidi ya watoto watatu.
06:19
Whereas with Islam as a majority religion and Christianity,
120
364080
4052
Ambapo na Uislamu kama dini ya wingi na
Ukristo,
Ukristo,
06:24
you see countries all the way.
121
368132
1908
unaona nchi njia yote.
06:25
But there's no major difference.
122
370040
1778
Lakini hakuna tofauti kubwa.
06:27
There's no major difference between these religions.
123
371818
3502
Hakuna tofauti kubwa kati ya hizi dini.
06:31
There is a difference with income.
124
375320
2351
Kuna tofauti kwenye mapato.
06:33
The countries which have many babies per woman here,
125
377671
3929
Nchi ambazo zina watoto wengi kwa mwanamke
hapa,
hapa,
06:37
they have quite low income.
126
381600
1932
zina mapato ya chini kweli.
06:39
Most of them are in sub-Saharan Africa.
127
383532
3431
Nyingi zao ziko Afrika kusini mwa Sahara.
06:42
But there are also countries here
128
386963
2662
Lakini pia kuna nchi huku
06:45
like Guatemala, like Papua New Guinea,
129
389625
4117
kama Guatemala, kama Papua New Guinea,
06:49
like Yemen and Afghanistan.
130
393742
2806
kama Yemen na Afghanistan.
06:52
Many think that Afghanistan here and Congo,
131
396548
3877
Wengi hufikiri kua Afghanistan hapa
na Kongo,
na Kongo,
06:56
which have suffered severe conflicts,
132
400425
3450
ambazo zimeteseka na migogoro mikali,
06:59
that they don't have fast population growth.
133
403875
2757
kua hazina ukuaji wa idadi ya watu wa
haraka.
haraka.
07:02
It's the other way around.
134
406632
1777
Ni kinyume chake.
07:04
In the world today, it's the countries that have the highest mortality rates
135
408409
3893
Kwenye dunia leo, ni nchi zenye
kiwango cha juu cha vifo
kiwango cha juu cha vifo
07:08
that have the fastest population growth.
136
412302
2236
ambazo zina ukuaji wa haraka wa idadi ya
watu.
watu.
07:10
Because the death of a child is compensated by one more child.
137
414538
3988
Kwa sababu kifo cha mtoto kimefidiwa
na mtoto mmoja zaidi.
na mtoto mmoja zaidi.
07:14
These countries have six children per woman.
138
418526
2908
Hizi nchi zina watoto sita kwa mwanake.
07:17
They have a sad death rate of one to two children per woman.
139
421434
4132
Zina kiwango cha vifo cha kusikitisha cha
mtoto mmoja mpaka wawili kwa mwanamke.
mtoto mmoja mpaka wawili kwa mwanamke.
07:21
But 30 years from now, Afghanistan will go from 30 million to 60 million.
140
425566
3819
Lakini miaka 30 kutoka sasa, Afghanistan
inatoka milioni 30 mpaka milioni 60.
inatoka milioni 30 mpaka milioni 60.
07:25
Congo will go from 60 to 120.
141
429385
3407
Kongo inaenda kutoka 60 mpaka 120.
07:28
That's where we have the fast population growth.
142
432792
2891
Hapo ndipo tunapata ukuaji wa idadi ya
watu.
watu.
07:31
And many think that these countries are stagnant, but they are not.
143
435683
4345
Na wengi wanafikiri kua hizi nchi ziko
palepale, lakini hazipo.
palepale, lakini hazipo.
07:35
Let me compare Senegal, a Muslim dominated country,
144
440028
3514
Ngoja nilinganishe Senegal, nchi
iliotawaliwa na Waislamu,
iliotawaliwa na Waislamu,
07:39
with a Christian dominated country, Ghana.
145
443542
2458
na nchi iliotawaliwa na Wakristo, Ghana.
07:41
I take them backwards here to their independence,
146
446000
3597
Nazipeleka nyuma hapa kwenye uhuru wao,
07:45
when they were up here in the beginning of the 1960s.
147
449597
3683
ambapo walikua huku juu mwanzoni mwa miaka
ya 1960.
ya 1960.
07:49
Just look what they have done.
148
453280
2098
Angalia tu walichokifanya.
07:51
It's an amazing improvement,
149
455378
1551
Ni maendeleo ya kushangaza,
07:52
from seven children per woman,
150
456929
2237
kutoka watoto saba kwa mwanake,
07:55
they've gone all the way down to between four and five.
151
459166
3065
wameenda moja kwa moja chini mpaka
wanne na watano.
wanne na watano.
07:58
It's a tremendous improvement.
152
462231
1587
Ni maendeleo makubwa.
07:59
So what does it take?
153
463818
1425
Hivyo inachukua nini?
08:01
Well we know quite well what is needed in these countries.
154
465243
3597
Basi tunajua vizuri kabisa
kinachohitajika kwenye hizi nchi.
kinachohitajika kwenye hizi nchi.
08:04
You need to have children to survive.
155
468840
2489
Unahitaji kua na watoto kuishi.
08:07
You need to get out of the deepest poverty
156
471329
2613
Unahitaji kutoka nje ya umasikini
uliokithiri
uliokithiri
08:09
so children are not of importance for work in the family.
157
473942
3578
hivyo watoto sio wa muhimu kwa kazi kwenye
familia.
familia.
08:13
You need to have access to some family planning.
158
477520
2871
Unahitaji kua na upatikanaji wa baadhi ya
uzazi wa mpango.
uzazi wa mpango.
08:16
And you need the fourth factor, which perhaps is the most important factor.
159
480391
4332
Na unahitaji sababu ya nne, ambayo pengine
ni sababu muhimu kuliko zote.
ni sababu muhimu kuliko zote.
08:20
But let me illustrate that fourth factor
160
484723
2908
Lakini ngoja nionyeshe hio sababu ya nne
08:23
by looking at Qatar.
161
487631
2101
kwa kuangalia Qatar.
08:25
Here we have Qatar today, and there we have Bangladesh today.
162
489732
3800
Hapa tuna Qatar leo, na pale tuna
Bangladesh leo.
Bangladesh leo.
08:29
If I take these countries back to the years of their independence,
163
493532
3637
Kama nikizipeleka hizi nchi nyuma kwenye
miaka ya uhuru wao,
miaka ya uhuru wao,
08:33
which is almost the same year -- '71, '72 --
164
497169
3071
ambazo ni karibia mwaka mmoja
-- '71, '72 --
-- '71, '72 --
08:36
it's a quite amazing development which had happened.
165
500240
3874
ni maendeleo ya kushangaza kabisa ambayo
yalitokea.
yalitokea.
08:40
Look at Bangladesh and Qatar.
166
504114
1806
Angalia Bangladesh na Qatar.
08:41
With so different incomes, it's almost the same drop
167
505920
3258
Zenye mapato yanayotofautiana kabisa, ni
karibia muanguko sawa
karibia muanguko sawa
08:45
in number of babies per woman.
168
509178
2114
kwenye idadi ya watoto kwa mwanamke.
08:47
And what is the reason in Qatar?
169
511292
2003
Na nini sababu ya Qatar?
08:49
Well I do as I always do.
170
513295
1659
Basi kama kawaida yangu.
08:50
I went to the statistical authority of Qatar, to their webpage --
171
514954
3772
Nilienda kwenye mamlaka ya takwimu ya
Qatar, kwenye tovuti yao --
Qatar, kwenye tovuti yao --
08:54
It's a very good webpage. I recommend it --
172
518726
2131
Ni tovuti nzuri sana. Ninaipendekeza --
08:56
and I looked up -- oh yeah, you can have lots of fun here --
173
520857
6491
na nikaangalia juu -- ndio, ni burudani
nyingi hapa --
nyingi hapa --
09:03
and provided free of charge, I found Qatar's social trends.
174
527348
4067
na zinatolewa bure, nilikuta mwenendo
wa kijamii wa Qatar.
wa kijamii wa Qatar.
09:07
Very interesting. Lots to read.
175
531415
2345
Ya kuvutia sana. Vingi vya kusoma.
09:09
I found fertility at birth, and I looked at total fertility rate per woman.
176
533760
4572
Nilikuta nguvu ya uzazi, na nikaangalia
jumla ya kiwango cha uzazi kwa mwanamke.
jumla ya kiwango cha uzazi kwa mwanamke.
09:14
These are the scholars and experts in the government agency in Qatar,
177
538332
3551
Hawa ni wasomi na wataalamu kwenye wakala
wa serikali wa Qatar,
wa serikali wa Qatar,
09:17
and they say the most important factors are:
178
541883
2655
na wakasema sababu za muhimu zaidi ni:
09:20
"Increased age at first marriage,
179
544538
1942
"Ongezeko la umri kwenye ndoa ya kwanza,
09:22
increased educational level of Qatari woman
180
546480
3025
ongezeko la kiwango cha elimu cha mwanamke
wa Qatar
wa Qatar
09:25
and more women integrated in the labor force."
181
549505
3313
na wanawake zaidi kujumuika kwenye
nguvukazi."
nguvukazi."
09:28
I couldn't agree more. Science couldn't agree more.
182
552818
3742
Nisingekubali zaidi. Sayansi isingekubali
zaidi.
zaidi.
09:32
This is a country that indeed has gone through
183
556560
2517
Hii ni nchi ambayo kweli imepitia
09:34
a very, very interesting modernization.
184
559077
3535
utamaduni wa kushangaza sana sana.
09:38
So what it is, is these four:
185
562612
2625
Hivyo kilichopo, ni hizi nne:
09:41
Children should survive, children shouldn't be needed for work,
186
565237
3083
Watoto wanatakiwa waishi, watoto
hawatakiwi kuhitajika kwa kazi,
hawatakiwi kuhitajika kwa kazi,
09:44
women should get education and join the labor force
187
568320
2902
wanawake wanatakiwa kupata elimu na
kujiunga na nguvukazi
kujiunga na nguvukazi
09:47
and family planning should be accessible.
188
571222
2273
na uzazi wa mpango unatakiwa kupatikana.
09:49
Now look again at this.
189
573495
3388
Sasa angalia tena hii.
09:52
The average number of children in the world
190
576883
2292
Wastani ya idadi ya watoto duniani
09:55
is like in Colombia -- it's 2.4 today.
191
579175
3422
ni kama ya Colombia -- ni 2.4 leo.
09:58
There are countries up here which are very poor.
192
582597
3037
Kuna nchi huku juu amabazo ni maskini
sana.
sana.
10:01
And that's where family planning, better child survival is needed.
193
585634
3951
Na ndipo uzazi wa mpango, maisha bora ya
watoto zinahitajika.
watoto zinahitajika.
10:05
I strongly recommend Melinda Gates' last TEDTalk.
194
589585
3787
Nina pendekeza kwa nguvu mazungumzo ya
TED ya mwisho ya Melinda Gates.
TED ya mwisho ya Melinda Gates.
10:09
And here, down, there are many countries which are less than two children per woman.
195
593372
5459
Na hapa, chini, kuna nchi nyingi ambazo
zina chini ya watoto wawili kwa mwanamke.
zina chini ya watoto wawili kwa mwanamke.
10:14
So when I go back now to give you the answer of the quiz,
196
598831
3612
Hivyo nikirudi sasa kuwapa jibu la
jaribio,
jaribio,
10:18
it's two.
197
602443
1542
ni mbili.
10:19
We have reached peak child.
198
603985
2529
Tumefikia kilele mtoto.
10:22
The number of children is not growing any longer in the world.
199
606514
2889
Idadi ya watoto haikui tena zaidi duniani.
10:25
We are still debating peak oil,
200
609403
1992
Bado tunajadili kilele mafuta,
10:27
but we have definitely reached peak child.
201
611395
2931
lakini ni dhahiri tumefika kilele mtoto.
10:30
And the world population will stop growing.
202
614326
2723
Idadi ya watu duniani itaacha kukua.
10:32
The United Nations Population Division has said
203
617049
2102
Umoja wa Mataifa kitengo cha Wakazi
kilisema
kilisema
10:35
it will stop growing at 10 billion.
204
619151
2440
kitaacha kukua kwenye bilioni 10.
10:37
But why do they grow if the number of children doesn't grow?
205
621591
4040
Lakini kwanini tunaongezeka kama idadi ya
watoto haiongezeki?
watoto haiongezeki?
10:41
Well I will show you here.
206
625631
2446
Basi nitawaonyesha hapa.
10:43
I will use these card boxes in which your notebooks came.
207
628077
3775
Nitatumia hizi sanduku za kadi ambazo
madaftari yenu yalikuja.
madaftari yenu yalikuja.
10:47
They are quite useful for educational purposes.
208
631852
3834
Ni muhimu sana kwa madhumuni ya elimu.
10:51
Each card box is one billion people.
209
635686
2908
Kila kisanduku ni watu bilioni moja.
10:54
And there are two billion children in the world.
210
638594
2668
Na kuna watoto bilioni mbili duniani.
10:57
There are two billion young people between 15 and 30.
211
641262
6870
Kuna vijana bilioni mbili kati ya 15
na 30.
na 30.
11:04
These are rounded numbers.
212
648132
1470
Hizi ni namba zilizokadiriwa.
11:05
Then there is one billion between 30 and 45,
213
649602
5026
Halafu kuna bilioni moja kati ya 30 na 45,
11:10
almost one between 45 and 60.
214
654628
3843
karibia moja kati ya 45 na 60.
11:14
And then it's my box.
215
658471
1624
na tena kuna sanduku langu.
11:15
This is me: 60-plus.
216
660095
2025
Huyu ni mimi: 60-na zaidi.
11:18
We are here on top.
217
662120
2162
Tupo hapa juu.
11:20
So what will happen now is what we call "the big fill-up."
218
664282
5232
Hivyo kitakachotokea sasa hivi ni
tunachoita "ujazo mkubwa."
tunachoita "ujazo mkubwa."
11:25
You can see that it's like three billion missing here.
219
669514
2988
Utaona kua kuna kama bilioni tatu
inayokosekana hapa.
inayokosekana hapa.
11:28
They are not missing because they've died; they were never born.
220
672502
4307
Haionekani kwa sababu wamekufa; hawakuwahi
kuzaliwa.
kuzaliwa.
11:32
Because before 1980, there were much fewer people born
221
676809
4108
Kwa sababu kabla ya 1980, kulikua na watu
wachache zaidi waliozaliwa
wachache zaidi waliozaliwa
11:36
than there were during the last 30 years.
222
680917
2757
kuliko waliopo wakati wa miaka 30
iliopita.
iliopita.
11:39
So what will happen now is quite straightforward.
223
683674
3154
Hivyo kitakachotokea sasa ni wazi sana.
11:42
The old, sadly, we will die.
224
686828
2797
Wazee, kwa sikitiko, tutakufa.
11:45
The rest of you, you will grow older and you will get two billion children.
225
689625
4655
Nyie wengine, mtakua wakubwa na mtapata
watoto bilioni mbili.
watoto bilioni mbili.
11:50
Then the old will die.
226
694280
2608
Kisha wazee watakufa.
11:52
The rest will grow older and get two billion children.
227
696888
4038
Wengine watakua wakubwa na kupata watoto
bilioni mbili.
bilioni mbili.
11:56
And then again the old will die and you will get two billion children.
228
700926
5769
Na tena wazee watakufa na mtapata watoto
bilioni mbili.
bilioni mbili.
12:02
(Applause)
229
706695
2254
(Makofi)
12:04
This is the great fill-up.
230
708949
3633
Hii ni ujazo mkubwa.
12:08
It's inevitable.
231
712582
2772
Haiepukiki.
12:11
And can you see that this increase took place
232
715354
2646
Na unaona kua hili ongezeko lilitokea
12:13
without life getting longer and without adding children?
233
718000
4803
bila maisha kua marefu na bila kuongeza
watoto?
watoto?
12:18
Religion has very little to do with the number of babies per woman.
234
722803
4905
Dini inahusika kidogo sana kwenye idadi ya
watoto kwa mwanamke.
watoto kwa mwanamke.
12:23
All the religions in the world are fully capable
235
727708
3269
Dini zote duniani zina uwezo wa kikamilifu
12:26
to maintain their values and adapt to this new world.
236
730977
5125
kudumisha thamani zao na kukabiliana
na hii dunia mpya.
na hii dunia mpya.
12:32
And we will be just 10 billion in this world,
237
736102
5283
Na tutakua tu bilioni 10 kwenye dunia hii,
12:37
if the poorest people get out of poverty,
238
741385
3584
kama watu maskini watatoka kwenye
umaskini,
umaskini,
12:40
their children survive, they get access to family planning.
239
744969
3173
watoto wao wataishi, watakua na
upatikanaji wa uzazi wa mpango.
upatikanaji wa uzazi wa mpango.
12:44
That is needed.
240
748142
1900
Hio inahitajika.
12:45
But it's inevitable that we will be two to three billion more.
241
750042
5715
Lakini haiepukiki kua tutakua bilioni
mbili mpaka tatu zaidi.
mbili mpaka tatu zaidi.
12:51
So when you discuss and when you plan
242
755757
3212
Hivyo unavyojadili na unavyopanga
12:54
for the resources and the energy needed for the future,
243
758969
3403
kwa rasilimali na nishati zinazohitajika
baadae,
baadae,
12:58
for human beings on this planet,
244
762372
2333
kwa wanadamu kwenye hii sayari,
13:00
you have to plan for 10 billion.
245
764705
2157
unatakiwa upange kwa bilioni 10
13:02
Thank you very much.
246
766862
2150
Asante sana.
13:04
(Applause)
247
769012
6086
(Makofi)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionaryIn Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.
Why you should listen
Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.
What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.
Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.
Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)
Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.
Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com