TEDxSummit
Hans Rosling: Religions and babies
汉斯·罗斯林: 宗教与新生儿
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汉斯·罗斯林提出了一个问题：信仰某种的宗教的人会比信仰另外一种宗教的人出生率更高吗？这个问题又会对全球人口增长有什么样的影响呢？在卡塔尔多哈的TEDx峰会演讲中，他用图表的形式描绘了不同时间，不同宗教的人口出生率的数据。汉斯用他招牌式的幽默和犀利的分析，在世界人口出生率这个问题上得到了惊人的结论。
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I'm going to talk about religion.
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我打算谈一些关于宗教的事情
00:20
But it's a broad and very delicate subject,
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但是宗教是一个宽泛，并且非常微妙的事物
00:25
so I have to limit myself.
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所以我必须给我自己一个范围。
00:27
And therefore I will limit myself
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因此我将研究限定为
00:29
to only talk about the links between religion and sexuality.
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宗教和性之间的某些联系
00:33
(Laughter)
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笑声
00:35
This is a very serious talk.
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这是一个相当严肃的谈话
00:38
So I will talk of what I remember as the most wonderful.
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所以我会谈到，我脑海中人间最美好的事物
00:42
It's when the young couple whisper,
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这便是，当一对年轻夫妇在对方耳边呢喃
00:44
"Tonight we are going to make a baby."
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“今晚，我们生个孩子吧!”
00:47
My talk will be about the impact of religions
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我的谈话将会是
00:53
on the number of babies per woman.
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宗教对每个妇女生育孩子数量的影响。
00:57
This is indeed important,
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事实上，这是一件很重要的事情。
00:58
because everyone understands
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因为，每个人都明白
01:00
that there is some sort of limit
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在某种程度上
01:02
on how many people we can be on this planet.
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地球上能容纳的人口数量是有限制的
01:05
And there are some people
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另外，有些人
01:07
who say that the world population is growing like this --
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声称世界人口数量是这样增长的
01:11
three billion in 1960,
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1960年，地球上有30亿人口
01:13
seven billion just last year --
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但仅仅去年人口便达到70亿
01:15
and it will continue to grow
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而且，它将会继续增长
01:17
because there are religions that stop women from having few babies,
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因为，一些宗教阻止妇女少生孩子。
01:21
and it may continue like this.
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所以，世界人口可能这继续下去
01:23
To what extent are these people right?
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但是，这些人的说法在什么范围内是正确的呢
01:27
When I was born there was less than one billion children in the world,
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当我出生的时候，世界上的儿童数量不到10亿
01:32
and today, 2000, there's almost two billion.
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但是2000年的今天，世界上的儿童数量将近20亿
01:36
What has happened since,
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那么发生了什么事呢
01:38
and what do the experts predict will happen
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专家们预测本世纪的儿童数量
01:40
with the number of children during this century?
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会导致将来发生什么事情呢
01:43
This is a quiz. What do you think?
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这是个问题。你们有什么看法呢
01:45
Do you think it will decrease to one billion?
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你认为儿童数量会降低到10亿吗
01:49
Will it remain the same and be two billion by the end of the century?
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还是它会保持目前的状况，在这个世纪末仍然是20亿呢？
01:53
Will the number of children increase each year up to 15 years,
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儿童的数量会每年都增加，并且持续15年吗？
01:57
or will it continue in the same fast rate
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或者它会保持与现在相同的增速
01:59
and be four billion children up there?
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直到世界上有40亿的儿童呢？
02:02
I will tell you by the end of my speech.
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在我的演讲结束时，我会告诉你答案
02:05
But now, what does religion have to do with it?
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但是现在，宗教和儿童数量有什么关系呢。
02:10
When you want to classify religion,
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当你想把宗教分门别类时
02:13
it's more difficult than you think.
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这将是比你想象的要更为复杂的工作
02:14
You go to Wikipedia and the first map you find is this.
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当你查询维基百科时，你看到的第一张图是这样的
02:17
It divides the world into Abrahamic religions and Eastern religion,
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它把这个世界分为亚伯拉罕诸教和东方宗教
02:23
but that's not detailed enough.
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但是，这描述的不够详细
02:25
So we went on and we looked in Wikipedia, we found this map.
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因此，我们继续看维基百科，便看到这张图
02:28
But that subdivides Christianity, Islam and Buddhism
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但是这张图把基督教、伊斯兰教和佛教细分为了
02:33
into many subgroups,
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很多的子群
02:35
which was too detailed.
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显得又太臃肿了
02:36
Therefore at Gapminder we made our own map,
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所以，我们我们用Gapminder这个软件做了一个自己的图
02:40
and it looks like this.
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它是这个样子的
02:42
Each country's a bubble.
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每个国家是一个小泡泡
02:45
The size is the population -- big China, big India here.
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泡泡的大小代表着人口数量——人口大国中国，人口大国印度在这里
02:49
And the color now is the majority religion.
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然后，现在的颜色代表大多数人信仰的宗教
02:53
It's the religion where more than 50 percent of the people
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它代表超过50%的人
02:56
say that they belong.
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声称他们信仰这个宗教
02:57
It's Eastern religion in India and China and neighboring Asian countries.
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印度、中国和相邻的亚洲国家信仰东方宗教，
03:02
Islam is the majority religion
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伊斯兰教是一个大多数人信仰的宗教
03:04
all the way from the Atlantic Ocean across the Middle East,
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从大西洋一直到中东
03:08
Southern Europe and through Asia
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欧洲南部并且穿过亚洲
03:10
all the way to Indonesia.
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一直到印度尼西亚
03:12
That's where we find Islamic majority.
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那里就是我们看到大多数人都信仰伊斯兰教的地方
03:15
And Christian majority religions, we see in these countries. They are blue.
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接着，大多数信仰基督教的区域。我们看到这些国家，他们的泡泡是蓝色
03:20
And that is most countries in America and Europe,
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大多数信仰基督教的国家在美洲和欧洲
03:24
many countries in Africa and a few in Asia.
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非洲的很多国家以及亚洲的一小部分
03:28
The white here are countries which cannot be classified,
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这里的白色泡泡的国家是不能被归类的
03:30
because one religion does not reach 50 percent
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因为宗教的信仰人数达不到国家总人口的50%
03:33
or there is doubt about the data or there's some other reason.
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或者是数据有一些问题或其他的一些原因
03:36
So we were careful with that.
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我们对待宗教信仰总是小心翼翼的
03:38
So bear with our simplicity now when I take you over to this shot.
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因此，现在稍微容忍下我们的简单化处理，一会儿我将带你，通过这个视角来看待这个问题
03:42
This is in 1960.
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这里现在是1960年
03:44
And now I show the number of babies per woman here:
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然后现在，我会在这里告诉你每个妇女生育孩子的数量
03:48
two, four or six --
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2个，4个，或者6个
03:51
many babies, few babies.
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很多孩子，很少孩子
03:53
And here the income per person in comparable dollars.
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然后这里是用美元作参照的人均收入
03:56
The reason for that is that many people say you have to get rich first
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之所以这样做是因为很多人说，你必须先变得富有
04:00
before you get few babies.
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之后才会少生孩子
04:01
So low income here, high income there.
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因此，这里是低收入，这里是高收入
04:05
And indeed in 1960,
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在1960年，确实是这样的
04:07
you had to be a rich Christian to have few babies.
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你必须先成为一个富有的基督徒，然后才能少生孩子
04:09
The exception was Japan.
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日本是个例外
04:12
Japan here was regarded as an exception.
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这里日本被当作一个例外
04:15
Otherwise it was only Christian countries.
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其他的都是信仰基督教的国家
04:17
But there was also many Christian countries
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但是，有很多的信仰基督教的国家
04:19
that had six to seven babies per woman.
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每个妇女生育6到7个孩子
04:22
But they were in Latin America or they were in Africa.
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但是他们在拉丁美洲或者非洲
04:27
And countries with Islam as the majority religion,
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主要信仰伊斯兰教的国家
04:31
all of them almost had six to seven children per woman,
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在他们中的几乎所有国家，每个妇女都生育六到七个孩子
04:36
irregardless of the income level.
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不管处于什么样的收入水平
04:38
And all the Eastern religions except Japan had the same level.
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除了日本，所有的东方国家都处于相同的水平
04:43
Now let's see what has happened in the world.
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现在，我们来看看世界发生了什么变化
04:45
I start the world, and here we go.
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我从世界整体开始，现在出发！
04:46
Now 1962 -- can you see they're getting a little richer,
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现在是1962年--你发现虽然这些国家比以前只是富裕了一小点
04:50
but the number of babies per woman is falling?
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但是妇女生育孩子的数量却下降了很多吗？
04:52
Look at China. They're falling fairly fast.
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看看中国，他们的出生率下降的非常迅速
04:55
And all of the Muslim majority countries across the income are coming down,
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然后，处于不同收入水平的、所有的穆斯林国家的出生率都下降了
04:59
as do the Christian majority countries in the middle income range.
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在中等收入范围内的基督教国家也发生了相同的变化
05:04
And when we enter into this century,
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当我们进入21世纪时
05:07
you'll find more than half of mankind down here.
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你会发现，一半以上国家的人口生育率会下降到这里
05:10
And by 2010, we are actually 80 percent of humans
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到2010年之前，事实上，我们当中80%的人
05:15
who live in countries with about two children per woman.
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生活的国家里，每个妇女只生育两个左右的孩子。
05:19
(Applause)
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（掌声）
05:23
It's a quite amazing development which has happened.
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这是一个不可思议的发展
05:27
(Applause)
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（掌声）
05:28
And these are countries from United States here,
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然后这些国家，从这里的美国开始
05:31
with $40,000 per capita,
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人均收入为$40,000
05:34
France, Russia, Iran,
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法国，俄罗斯，伊朗
05:37
Mexico, Turkey, Algeria,
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墨西哥，土耳其，阿尔及利亚（北非国家）
05:40
Indonesia, India
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印度尼西亚，印度
05:42
and all the way to Bangladesh and Vietnam,
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然后一直到孟加拉国和越南
05:45
which has less than five percent of the income per person of the United States
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这两个国家的人均年收入不到美国的5%。
05:49
and the same amount of babies per woman.
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但是和美国的妇女平均生育率一样
05:52
I can tell you that the data on the number of children per woman
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我会告诉你，关于妇女平均生育孩子数量的数据
05:56
is surprisingly good in all countries.
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在所有国家都是惊人的好
05:58
We get that from the census data.
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我们是通过人口普查得到这样的数据的。
06:00
It's not one of these statistics which is very doubtful.
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这些数据中，没有一个是不可信的
06:03
So what we can conclude
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因此，我们可以总结出来
06:04
is you don't have to get rich to have few children.
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想要少生孩子，你不必非要先变得富有
06:07
It has happened across the world.
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全世界都是这样
06:09
And then when we look at religions,
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接下来，我们来看看宗教
06:12
we can see that the Eastern religions,
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我们能看到东部的宗教
06:15
indeed there's not one single country with a majority of that religion
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事实上，没有一个信仰宗教的国家
06:18
that has more than three children.
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妇女生育三个以上孩子的
06:19
Whereas with Islam as a majority religion and Christianity,
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然后，以伊斯兰为主要宗教的国家和基督教国家
06:24
you see countries all the way.
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你看到这些国家都是一直这样的
06:25
But there's no major difference.
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但是，没有重要的差别
06:27
There's no major difference between these religions.
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在这两个宗教之间没有很大的区别
06:31
There is a difference with income.
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但是在收入上却是有差别的
06:33
The countries which have many babies per woman here,
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妇女平均生育孩子数量很高的国家
06:37
they have quite low income.
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他们的收入都很低
06:39
Most of them are in sub-Saharan Africa.
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他们当中的大部分国家都在撒哈拉沙漠以南的非洲
06:42
But there are also countries here
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但是这里也有一些国家，这里
06:45
like Guatemala, like Papua New Guinea,
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比如说危地马拉。比如说巴布亚新几内亚
06:49
like Yemen and Afghanistan.
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比如也门和阿富汗
06:52
Many think that Afghanistan here and Congo,
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很多人认为，阿富汗（这里）和刚果
06:56
which have suffered severe conflicts,
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都经历过残酷的战争冲突，
06:59
that they don't have fast population growth.
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他们不会有迅速的人口增长
07:02
It's the other way around.
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但是，事实却相反
07:04
In the world today, it's the countries that have the highest mortality rates
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在当今世界，正是那些死亡率最高的国家
07:08
that have the fastest population growth.
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有着最快的人口增长率
07:10
Because the death of a child is compensated by one more child.
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因为一个儿童的死亡，都被更多儿童的出生抵消了
07:14
These countries have six children per woman.
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这些国家每个妇女生育6个孩子
07:17
They have a sad death rate of one to two children per woman.
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他们有着令人伤心的死亡率：每个妇女的孩子有一半会夭折
07:21
But 30 years from now, Afghanistan will go from 30 million to 60 million.
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但是30年之后，阿富汗的人口将会从3千万增长到6千万
07:25
Congo will go from 60 to 120.
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而刚果会从6千万增长到1亿2千万
07:28
That's where we have the fast population growth.
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这样的国家就是我们人口增长最迅速的地区了
07:31
And many think that these countries are stagnant, but they are not.
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尽管很多人认为这些国家的人口是停滞不前的，但事实上，它们是增长的
07:35
Let me compare Senegal, a Muslim dominated country,
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让我来比较下塞内加尔，这个穆斯林（顺服伊斯兰教的神阿拉的人）统治的的国家
07:39
with a Christian dominated country, Ghana.
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和一个基督徒统治的国家，加纳
07:41
I take them backwards here to their independence,
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我把它们带回到这里，它们刚独立，
07:45
when they were up here in the beginning of the 1960s.
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这两个国家都在20世纪60年代初的时候
07:49
Just look what they have done.
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看看它们做了什么
07:51
It's an amazing improvement,
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这是一个令人惊奇的进步
07:52
from seven children per woman,
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从每个妇女生育7个孩子
07:55
they've gone all the way down to between four and five.
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它们的生育率一直下降到每个妇女生育4到5个孩子
07:58
It's a tremendous improvement.
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这是个非常了不起的进步
07:59
So what does it take?
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那么，这说明了什么问题呢？
08:01
Well we know quite well what is needed in these countries.
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嗯。我们清楚的知道这些国家到底需要什么
08:04
You need to have children to survive.
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你需要让孩子活下来
08:07
You need to get out of the deepest poverty
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你需要从赤贫中脱离出来
08:09
so children are not of importance for work in the family.
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因此，儿童就不是家里的主要劳动力了
08:13
You need to have access to some family planning.
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你需要有条件进行计划生育
08:16
And you need the fourth factor, which perhaps is the most important factor.
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然后，你需要第四个要素，也可能是最重要的一个要素
08:20
But let me illustrate that fourth factor
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就让我来解释下第四个要素
08:23
by looking at Qatar.
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通过对卡达尔的观察
08:25
Here we have Qatar today, and there we have Bangladesh today.
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这里，是卡塔尔目前的状况，然后这里是孟加拉国目前的状况
08:29
If I take these countries back to the years of their independence,
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如果我把这两个国家带回到他们刚刚独立那年
08:33
which is almost the same year -- '71, '72 --
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差不多是同一年，1971年和1972年
08:36
it's a quite amazing development which had happened.
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这是一个已经发生了的，并且令人惊叹的进步
08:40
Look at Bangladesh and Qatar.
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看看孟加拉国和卡达尔
08:41
With so different incomes, it's almost the same drop
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虽然他们的收入差别这么大
08:45
in number of babies per woman.
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但是生育率却几乎同步降低
08:47
And what is the reason in Qatar?
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那么，卡达尔人口下降的原因是什么呢？
08:49
Well I do as I always do.
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我就按照我一贯的作法
08:50
I went to the statistical authority of Qatar, to their webpage --
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我去查询卡塔尔官方授权的数据，去了他们的官方网页
08:54
It's a very good webpage. I recommend it --
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这是个非常不错的网页，我向你们强烈推荐
08:56
and I looked up -- oh yeah, you can have lots of fun here --
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然后我查阅这个网页--是的，你的确能在这里享受到很多乐趣
09:03
and provided free of charge, I found Qatar's social trends.
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他们提供的数据是免费的，我查找到了卡塔尔的社会发展趋势
09:07
Very interesting. Lots to read.
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非常有趣，有很多值得阅读的地方
09:09
I found fertility at birth, and I looked at total fertility rate per woman.
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我查找到了新生儿出生率，接着我看到了整个国家的妇女生育孩子数量
09:14
These are the scholars and experts in the government agency in Qatar,
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这些都是卡塔尔官方机构的学者和专家，
09:17
and they say the most important factors are:
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他们说最重要的因素是：
09:20
"Increased age at first marriage,
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提高首次结婚的年龄
09:22
increased educational level of Qatari woman
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提高卡塔尔妇女的受教育水平
09:25
and more women integrated in the labor force."
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整合更多的妇女去工作
09:28
I couldn't agree more. Science couldn't agree more.
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我非常同意这个说法，科学也非常同意这个说法
09:32
This is a country that indeed has gone through
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这就是一个国家的确经历过的事
09:34
a very, very interesting modernization.
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一个非常，非常有意思的现代化
09:38
So what it is, is these four:
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那么这个现代化是什么呢，它是以下四点：
09:41
Children should survive, children shouldn't be needed for work,
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儿童应该活下来，他们也不应该被需要工作
09:44
women should get education and join the labor force
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妇女应该接受教育，同时要参加工作
09:47
and family planning should be accessible.
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必须进行易于实施的计划生育
09:49
Now look again at this.
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现在，我们再来看一下这个
09:52
The average number of children in the world
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世界的新生儿平均出生数量
09:55
is like in Colombia -- it's 2.4 today.
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就像哥伦比亚----它目前是2.4个
09:58
There are countries up here which are very poor.
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比这个数高的国家都非常贫穷
10:01
And that's where family planning, better child survival is needed.
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这些地方就非常需要计划生育，让更多的儿童存活下来
10:05
I strongly recommend Melinda Gates' last TEDTalk.
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在上次梅琳达·盖茨的TED演讲上，我就强烈建议过这个观点
10:09
And here, down, there are many countries which are less than two children per woman.
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然后在这里，生育率下降，这里的很多国家，每个妇女生育孩子的数量低于2个
10:14
So when I go back now to give you the answer of the quiz,
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那么现在，回到我一开始给你们的小测试，然后揭晓答案
10:18
it's two.
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它的答案是第二个
10:19
We have reached peak child.
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我们已经到达了儿童数量的峰值
10:22
The number of children is not growing any longer in the world.
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这个世界上的儿童数量不会再增长了
10:25
We are still debating peak oil,
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虽然我们还在讨论油价是否已经达到最高点
10:27
but we have definitely reached peak child.
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但是我们的儿童数量确实已经达到最高点了
10:30
And the world population will stop growing.
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然后，世界人口的数量将会停止增长
10:32
The United Nations Population Division has said
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联合国人口署也曾说过，世界人口的数量
10:35
it will stop growing at 10 billion.
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将在100亿的时候停止增长
10:37
But why do they grow if the number of children doesn't grow?
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但是为什么儿童的数量没有增长，而世界人口的数量还增长呢?
10:41
Well I will show you here.
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好的，我将在这里向你们展示。
10:43
I will use these card boxes in which your notebooks came.
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我要用这些你们装笔记本的纸盒子。
10:47
They are quite useful for educational purposes.
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对于教育目的而言，它们是很有用的
10:51
Each card box is one billion people.
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每个纸盒子代表10亿人
10:54
And there are two billion children in the world.
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然后世界上总共有20亿儿童
10:57
There are two billion young people between 15 and 30.
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在15岁到30岁之间的人总共有20亿
11:04
These are rounded numbers.
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这些都是大概的数字
11:05
Then there is one billion between 30 and 45,
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接着，在30岁到45岁的人有10亿
11:10
almost one between 45 and 60.
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在45岁到60岁的差不多有10亿
11:14
And then it's my box.
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接着，就是代表我年纪的盒子了
11:15
This is me: 60-plus.
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这就是我的：60岁以上的
11:18
We are here on top.
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我们在这里，顶部的位置
11:20
So what will happen now is what we call "the big fill-up."
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那么，接下来要发生的事就是我们所谓的“伟大的补充”
11:25
You can see that it's like three billion missing here.
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你能看到，在这个地方，有30亿的空缺
11:28
They are not missing because they've died; they were never born.
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他们不是空缺，而是死了，并且再也不会出生
11:32
Because before 1980, there were much fewer people born
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因为在1980年之前，世界上的新生人口相对于
11:36
than there were during the last 30 years.
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近三十年要少很多
11:39
So what will happen now is quite straightforward.
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那么，现在即将发生的事儿是非常简单明了的。
11:42
The old, sadly, we will die.
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那些老人，非常悲伤的，我们会死去
11:45
The rest of you, you will grow older and you will get two billion children.
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剩下的你们即将变老，接着，会有20亿儿童出生
11:50
Then the old will die.
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接着，那些老人又会死去
11:52
The rest will grow older and get two billion children.
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剩下的人会接着变老，又会有20亿儿童出生
11:56
And then again the old will die and you will get two billion children.
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接下来，再一次的，那些老人会死去，然后，又会有20亿儿童出生
12:02
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
12:04
This is the great fill-up.
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这就是伟大的补充
12:08
It's inevitable.
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这是不可避免的
12:11
And can you see that this increase took place
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你会发现虽然人口增加了
12:13
without life getting longer and without adding children?
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但是人的寿命和儿童数量并没有增加
12:18
Religion has very little to do with the number of babies per woman.
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宗教信仰和每个妇女生育孩子的数量并没有太大关系
12:23
All the religions in the world are fully capable
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这个世界上所有的宗教都是完全可以
12:26
to maintain their values and adapt to this new world.
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宣传他们的价值观，并且来适应这个新世界的。
12:32
And we will be just 10 billion in this world,
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将来世界上只会有100亿人口
12:37
if the poorest people get out of poverty,
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如果最贫穷的人脱离贫困
12:40
their children survive, they get access to family planning.
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他们的孩子活下来，他们有条件进行计划生育
12:44
That is needed.
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那些都是必要的
12:45
But it's inevitable that we will be two to three billion more.
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但是，不可避免的，世界上将会增加20亿到30多亿的人口
12:51
So when you discuss and when you plan
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因此，当你讨论，当你计划
12:54
for the resources and the energy needed for the future,
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未来人们的资源和能源需求时
12:58
for human beings on this planet,
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为了这个星球上的人类
13:00
you have to plan for 10 billion.
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你必须为100亿人进行计划
13:02
Thank you very much.
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非常感谢。
13:04
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionaryIn Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.
Why you should listen
Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.
What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.
Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.
Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)
Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.
Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com