ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.

Why you should listen

Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.

What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.

Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.

Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)

Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.

Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.


More profile about the speaker
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com
TEDxSummit

Hans Rosling: Religions and babies

漢斯·羅斯林:宗教信仰與嬰兒

Filmed:
2,912,376 views

漢斯·羅斯林一直以來有個問題- 特定宗教信仰族群會有比較高的出生率嗎? 然後這又如何影響了世界人口量的成長? 在卡達的TEDxSummit大會中,他用圖表帶觀者跨越了時空和宗教信仰這兩層面,並以個人極具特色的幽默和精準的洞察在世界人口成長率上做出了一個令人驚訝的結論!
- Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:16
I'm going to talk about religion宗教.
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我今天要談的是宗教
00:20
But it's a broad廣闊 and very delicate精巧 subject學科,
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但這是個很廣泛且必須小心處理的議題
00:25
so I have to limit限制 myself.
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所以我必須有個限度
00:27
And therefore因此 I will limit限制 myself
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所以我當然會有所節制
00:29
to only talk about the links鏈接 between之間 religion宗教 and sexuality性慾.
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而單就宗教和性別之間的關係來談
00:33
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
00:35
This is a very serious嚴重 talk.
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這是個很嚴肅的議題
00:38
So I will talk of what I remember記得 as the most wonderful精彩.
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所以我會盡力以最好的方式來談
00:42
It's when the young年輕 couple一對 whisper耳語,
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當年輕夫妻小聲地說
00:44
"Tonight今晚 we are going to make a baby寶寶."
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"我們今天晚上來做個小寶寶"
00:47
My talk will be about the impact碰撞 of religions宗教
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今天要談的就是宗教層面
00:53
on the number of babies嬰兒 per woman女人.
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對每位婦女生的小寶寶數量的影響
00:57
This is indeed確實 important重要,
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這確實很重要
00:58
because everyone大家 understands理解
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因為我們每個人都知道
01:00
that there is some sort分類 of limit限制
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那地球能夠承載的人的數量
01:02
on how many許多 people we can be on this planet行星.
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其實是有某種極限的
01:05
And there are some people
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然後又有那麼一些人
01:07
who say that the world世界 population人口 is growing生長 like this --
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說世界人口成長就以這樣的方式增加-
01:11
three billion十億 in 1960,
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1960的30億
01:13
seven billion十億 just last year --
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到去年的70億
01:15
and it will continue繼續 to grow增長
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然後會一直繼續增加
01:17
because there are religions宗教 that stop women婦女 from having few少數 babies嬰兒,
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因為有那麼一些宗教阻止婦女生少一點小孩
01:21
and it may可能 continue繼續 like this.
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而且應該會繼續如此
01:23
To what extent程度 are these people right?
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這些人能對到哪種程度?
01:27
When I was born天生 there was less than one billion十億 children孩子 in the world世界,
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在我出生時,小孩人口的數量是少於10億的
01:32
and today今天, 2000, there's almost幾乎 two billion十億.
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而如今,2000年,已經幾乎快到20億了
01:36
What has happened發生 since以來,
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到底發生了什麼事
01:38
and what do the experts專家 predict預測 will happen發生
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然後在這個世紀全球小孩人口的總數
01:40
with the number of children孩子 during this century世紀?
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專家們又預測了些什麼?
01:43
This is a quiz測驗. What do you think?
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這是個測驗
你們覺得呢?
01:45
Do you think it will decrease減少 to one billion十億?
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它會減少到10億嗎?
01:49
Will it remain the same相同 and be two billion十億 by the end結束 of the century世紀?
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還是到這個世紀結束前它還會維持在20億?
01:53
Will the number of children孩子 increase增加 each year up to 15 years年份,
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會以每15年增加一次
01:57
or will it continue繼續 in the same相同 fast快速 rate
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還是它會以一樣快的速度繼續下去
01:59
and be four billion十億 children孩子 up there?
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然後到了那裡就變成40億?
02:02
I will tell you by the end結束 of my speech言語.
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我會在結束的時候告訴你們答案
02:05
But now, what does religion宗教 have to do with it?
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但宗教又和這有什麼關係?
02:10
When you want to classify分類 religion宗教,
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當你想把宗教分門別類
02:13
it's more difficult than you think.
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它會比你想像的還難
02:14
You go to Wikipedia維基百科 and the first map地圖 you find is this.
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你在維基百科上看到的第一張地圖會是這個
02:17
It divides分歧 the world世界 into Abrahamic亞伯拉罕 religions宗教 and Eastern religion宗教,
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它把世界劃分成阿伯拉罕信仰與東方信仰
02:23
but that's not detailed詳細 enough足夠.
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但這還不夠詳細
02:25
So we went on and we looked看著 in Wikipedia維基百科, we found發現 this map地圖.
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所以繼續看下去之後我們就發現了這張地圖
02:28
But that subdivides細分 Christianity基督教, Islam伊斯蘭教 and Buddhism佛教
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它把基督,伊斯蘭和佛教信仰細分成
02:33
into many許多 subgroups,
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很多小群
02:35
which哪一個 was too detailed詳細.
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這又變得太複雜了
02:36
Therefore因此 at GapminderGapminder we made製作 our own擁有 map地圖,
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所以在Gapminder上我們自己做了一張地圖
02:40
and it looks容貌 like this.
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就是現在這張圖
02:42
Each country's a bubble泡沫.
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每個國家都是一個圓點
02:45
The size尺寸 is the population人口 -- big China中國, big India印度 here.
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大小代表它的人口總量
中國和印度都是大的
02:49
And the color顏色 now is the majority多數 religion宗教.
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然後顏色代表主要的宗教信仰
02:53
It's the religion宗教 where more than 50 percent百分 of the people
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是在哪裡多於半數的人
02:56
say that they belong屬於.
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說他們屬於的信仰
02:57
It's Eastern religion宗教 in India印度 and China中國 and neighboring鄰接 Asian亞洲 countries國家.
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在印度,中國和其他鄰近亞洲國家都是東方信仰
03:02
Islam伊斯蘭教 is the majority多數 religion宗教
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而伊斯蘭信仰則
03:04
all the way from the Atlantic大西洋 Ocean海洋 across橫過 the Middle中間 East,
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遠從大西洋到中東,
03:08
Southern南部的 Europe歐洲 and through通過 Asia亞洲
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南歐然後穿過亞洲再到印尼
03:10
all the way to Indonesia印度尼西亞.
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都是主要的宗教
03:12
That's where we find Islamic清真 majority多數.
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那就是伊斯蘭信仰的大多數族群
03:15
And Christian基督教 majority多數 religions宗教, we see in these countries國家. They are blue藍色.
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然後多數的基督教信仰族群
就是這些藍色的國家
03:20
And that is most countries國家 in America美國 and Europe歐洲,
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也就是大多數在美洲和歐洲的國家
03:24
many許多 countries國家 in Africa非洲 and a few少數 in Asia亞洲.
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還有很多在非洲和一些在亞洲的國家
03:28
The white白色 here are countries國家 which哪一個 cannot不能 be classified分類,
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白色的部分則是還無法被分類的國家
03:30
because one religion宗教 does not reach達到 50 percent百分
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因為每一個宗教的信仰人口都還沒過半
03:33
or there is doubt懷疑 about the data數據 or there's some other reason原因.
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或是因為對資料的可信度還是一些某些其他的原因
03:36
So we were careful小心 with that.
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我們其實是很小心在處理的
03:38
So bear with our simplicity簡單 now when I take you over to this shot射擊.
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現在我們來看看更簡單明瞭的圖
03:42
This is in 1960.
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這是1960年
03:44
And now I show顯示 the number of babies嬰兒 per woman女人 here:
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我們可以看到每位婦女所生的小孩數量
03:48
two, four or six --
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兩個,四個或六個
03:51
many許多 babies嬰兒, few少數 babies嬰兒.
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很多和很少的小孩
03:53
And here the income收入 per person in comparable可比 dollars美元.
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然後這裡是每個人的收入
03:56
The reason原因 for that is that many許多 people say you have to get rich豐富 first
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我們看收入的原因是,很多人都說你必須先變得有錢
04:00
before you get few少數 babies嬰兒.
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才能去少生一些小孩
04:01
So low income收入 here, high income收入 there.
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所以這裡是收入低的,這裡是收入高的
04:05
And indeed確實 in 1960,
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而確實在1960年
04:07
you had to be a rich豐富 Christian基督教 to have few少數 babies嬰兒.
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你必須是個有錢的基督徒才能有較少的小孩
04:09
The exception例外 was Japan日本.
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但除了日本
04:12
Japan日本 here was regarded認為 as an exception例外.
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在這裡日本是個例外
04:15
Otherwise除此以外 it was only Christian基督教 countries國家.
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否則就只是在基督教信仰的國家才適用
04:17
But there was also many許多 Christian基督教 countries國家
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但也有很多基督教信仰的國家
04:19
that had six to seven babies嬰兒 per woman女人.
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每位婦女平均生了6至7位的小孩
04:22
But they were in Latin拉丁 America美國 or they were in Africa非洲.
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但他們是在拉丁美洲和非洲
04:27
And countries國家 with Islam伊斯蘭教 as the majority多數 religion宗教,
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然後在大多數信仰是伊斯蘭教的國家
04:31
all of them almost幾乎 had six to seven children孩子 per woman女人,
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則是,不論他們的收入多寡
04:36
irregardlessirregardless of the income收入 level水平.
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幾乎每位婦女都平均生了6到7位小孩
04:38
And all the Eastern religions宗教 except Japan日本 had the same相同 level水平.
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然後除了日本,在其他東方信仰的國家也是如此
04:43
Now let's see what has happened發生 in the world世界.
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現在我們來看看這一切是如何轉變的
04:45
I start開始 the world世界, and here we go.
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就讓我們從世界的角度來看
04:46
Now 1962 -- can you see they're getting得到 a little richer更豐富,
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1962年,你可以看到他們變得比較有錢
04:50
but the number of babies嬰兒 per woman女人 is falling落下?
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但每位婦女所生的小孩數量卻在下降?
04:52
Look at China中國. They're falling落下 fairly相當 fast快速.
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看看中國,他們以相當快的速度在下降
04:55
And all of the Muslim穆斯林 majority多數 countries國家 across橫過 the income收入 are coming未來 down,
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大多數以穆斯林為主的國家,無論收入多寡,也是在下降
04:59
as do the Christian基督教 majority多數 countries國家 in the middle中間 income收入 range範圍.
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而大多數中等收入的基督徒身上也是如此
05:04
And when we enter輸入 into this century世紀,
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然後當我們跨入這世紀時
05:07
you'll你會 find more than half of mankind人類 down here.
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你看到大部分的人類都在這
05:10
And by 2010, we are actually其實 80 percent百分 of humans人類
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然後到2010年
我們百分之80的人類都在這
05:15
who live生活 in countries國家 with about two children孩子 per woman女人.
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平均每位婦女只生兩位小孩的國家
05:19
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
05:23
It's a quite相當 amazing驚人 development發展 which哪一個 has happened發生.
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這真的是件令人震驚的發展
05:27
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
05:28
And these are countries國家 from United聯合的 States狀態 here,
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然後從這裡是美國
05:31
with $40,000 per capita人頭,
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平均每人所得4萬美金
05:34
France法國, Russia俄國, Iran伊朗,
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到法國,俄羅斯,伊朗
05:37
Mexico墨西哥, Turkey火雞, Algeria阿爾及利亞,
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墨西哥,土耳其,阿爾及利亞
05:40
Indonesia印度尼西亞, India印度
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印尼,印度
05:42
and all the way to Bangladesh孟加拉國 and Vietnam越南,
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然後到最後的孟加拉和越南
05:45
which哪一個 has less than five percent百分 of the income收入 per person of the United聯合的 States狀態
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平均每人所得低於美國的百分之五
05:49
and the same相同 amount of babies嬰兒 per woman女人.
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然後每位婦女所生的小孩數量是一樣的
05:52
I can tell you that the data數據 on the number of children孩子 per woman女人
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我們這些每位婦女生的小孩數量的統計資料
05:56
is surprisingly出奇 good in all countries國家.
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來源是相當可靠的
05:58
We get that from the census人口調查 data數據.
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我們是從人口普查拿到這些資料
06:00
It's not one of these statistics統計 which哪一個 is very doubtful.
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並不是那些可信度相當低的統計資料
06:03
So what we can conclude得出結論
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所以我們可以推斷出
06:04
is you don't have to get rich豐富 to have few少數 children孩子.
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並不用要變得有錢才能生比較少的小孩
06:07
It has happened發生 across橫過 the world世界.
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這也是事實上所已經發生的
06:09
And then when we look at religions宗教,
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然後當我們再來看宗教信仰
06:12
we can see that the Eastern religions宗教,
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可以發現在那些以東方信仰為主的國家
06:15
indeed確實 there's not one single country國家 with a majority多數 of that religion宗教
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確實沒有一個國家的
06:18
that has more than three children孩子.
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平均每位婦女生的小孩數量超過三個
06:19
Whereas with Islam伊斯蘭教 as a majority多數 religion宗教 and Christianity基督教,
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鑑於那些以伊斯蘭和基督教為主的國家
06:24
you see countries國家 all the way.
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也是如此
06:25
But there's no major重大的 difference區別.
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沒有太大的不同
06:27
There's no major重大的 difference區別 between之間 these religions宗教.
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在宗教層面上並沒有太大的不同
06:31
There is a difference區別 with income收入.
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只有一個收入多寡的差別
06:33
The countries國家 which哪一個 have many許多 babies嬰兒 per woman女人 here,
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這些平均每位婦女生很多小孩的國家
06:37
they have quite相當 low income收入.
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收入都相當的低
06:39
Most of them are in sub-Saharan撒哈拉以南 Africa非洲.
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他們大部分都位於非洲的南撒哈拉沙漠區
06:42
But there are also countries國家 here
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但這裡也有一些
06:45
like Guatemala危地馬拉, like Papua巴布亞 New Guinea幾內亞,
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瓜地馬拉, 巴布新幾內亞
06:49
like Yemen也門 and Afghanistan阿富汗.
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葉門和阿富汗的國家
06:52
Many許多 think that Afghanistan阿富汗 here and Congo剛果,
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很多人都認為阿富汗和剛果
06:56
which哪一個 have suffered遭遇 severe嚴重 conflicts衝突,
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都遭受嚴重的軍事衝突
06:59
that they don't have fast快速 population人口 growth發展.
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所以人口成長速度並不高
07:02
It's the other way around.
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實際上是相反的
07:04
In the world世界 today今天, it's the countries國家 that have the highest最高 mortality死亡 rates利率
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在現今的世界
那種死亡率很高的國家
07:08
that have the fastest最快的 population人口 growth發展.
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才會有很快的人口成長
07:10
Because the death死亡 of a child兒童 is compensated補償 by one more child兒童.
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因為多生另一個小孩可以補償一個小孩的死去
07:14
These countries國家 have six children孩子 per woman女人.
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這些國家平均每位婦女生的小孩數量是六位
07:17
They have a sad傷心 death死亡 rate of one to two children孩子 per woman女人.
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而平均每位婦女1至2位的小孩就有死亡的可能
07:21
But 30 years年份 from now, Afghanistan阿富汗 will go from 30 million百萬 to 60 million百萬.
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但再過三十年
阿富汗的人口就會從3千萬到6千萬
07:25
Congo剛果 will go from 60 to 120.
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剛果則會從6千萬到1億2千萬
07:28
That's where we have the fast快速 population人口 growth發展.
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這就是高度人口成長的國家
07:31
And many許多 think that these countries國家 are stagnant, but they are not.
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然後也有很多人認為這些國家是相當落後蕭條的
其實不是如此
07:35
Let me compare比較 Senegal塞內加爾, a Muslim穆斯林 dominated佔主導地位 country國家,
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讓我來比較由伊斯蘭教統治的國家-塞內加爾
07:39
with a Christian基督教 dominated佔主導地位 country國家, Ghana加納.
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和一個以基督教統治的國家-迦納
07:41
I take them backwards向後 here to their independence獨立,
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讓我們回到他們獨立的時候
07:45
when they were up here in the beginning開始 of the 1960s.
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那是在1960年代初
07:49
Just look what they have doneDONE.
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看看他們這一路是如何走來的
07:51
It's an amazing驚人 improvement起色,
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實在是件很令人驚訝的改變
07:52
from seven children孩子 per woman女人,
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從平均每位婦女所生的小孩數量7位
07:55
they've他們已經 gone走了 all the way down to between之間 four and five.
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到平均4到5位
07:58
It's a tremendous巨大 improvement起色.
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這的確是很驚人的改善
07:59
So what does it take?
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那它所付出的是什麼?
08:01
Well we know quite相當 well what is needed需要 in these countries國家.
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其實我們都知道這些國家需要的是什麼
08:04
You need to have children孩子 to survive生存.
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你需要孩子們存活下來
08:07
You need to get out of the deepest最深 poverty貧窮
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你需要脫離極度的貧困
08:09
so children孩子 are not of importance重要性 for work in the family家庭.
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所以在家庭中孩子們並不會工作的重要一環
08:13
You need to have access訪問 to some family家庭 planning規劃.
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你需要一些家庭計劃的管道
08:16
And you need the fourth第四 factor因子, which哪一個 perhaps也許 is the most important重要 factor因子.
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還有那也許就是最重要的第四點因素
08:20
But let me illustrate說明 that fourth第四 factor因子
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讓我從卡達的例子
08:23
by looking at Qatar卡塔爾.
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來說說那第四點原因
08:25
Here we have Qatar卡塔爾 today今天, and there we have Bangladesh孟加拉國 today今天.
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這裡有卡達和孟加拉
08:29
If I take these countries國家 back to the years年份 of their independence獨立,
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如果我回到這些國家獨立的年份
08:33
which哪一個 is almost幾乎 the same相同 year -- '71, '72 --
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幾乎是在同一年- 1971和1972
08:36
it's a quite相當 amazing驚人 development發展 which哪一個 had happened發生.
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這真的是相當令人驚訝的發展
08:40
Look at Bangladesh孟加拉國 and Qatar卡塔爾.
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看看孟加拉和卡達
08:41
With so different不同 incomes收入, it's almost幾乎 the same相同 drop下降
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在平均每位婦女生的小孩數量上幾乎是同等量的下降
08:45
in number of babies嬰兒 per woman女人.
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卻有著這麼大的收入差異
08:47
And what is the reason原因 in Qatar卡塔爾?
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那在卡達又設什麼原因呢?
08:49
Well I do as I always do.
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我一直想要知道
08:50
I went to the statistical統計 authority權威 of Qatar卡塔爾, to their webpage網頁 --
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所以我去他們的網頁上找到卡達的官方統計數據
08:54
It's a very good webpage網頁. I recommend推薦 it --
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我推薦這個很棒的網頁
08:56
and I looked看著 up -- oh yeah, you can have lots of fun開玩笑 here --
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我在這裡慢慢研究過
這真的很好玩
09:03
and provided提供 free自由 of charge收費, I found發現 Qatar's卡塔爾 social社會 trends趨勢.
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不用付任何一毛錢
我就可以發現卡達的社會潮流是如何
09:07
Very interesting有趣. Lots to read.
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這實在很有趣
有很多可以去了解
09:09
I found發現 fertility生育能力 at birth分娩, and I looked看著 at total fertility生育能力 rate per woman女人.
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我發現他們的出生率相當高
也就是平均每位婦女的生產量相當高
09:14
These are the scholars學者 and experts專家 in the government政府 agency機構 in Qatar卡塔爾,
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這些是在卡達的政府部門服務的專家和學者們
09:17
and they say the most important重要 factors因素 are:
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他們說最重要的就是要
09:20
"Increased增加 age年齡 at first marriage婚姻,
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"提高第一次結婚時的年齡
09:22
increased增加 educational教育性 level水平 of Qatari卡塔爾 woman女人
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讓卡達婦女的教育水平的提升
09:25
and more women婦女 integrated集成 in the labor勞動 force."
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然後就會有更多的婦女進入職場"
09:28
I couldn't不能 agree同意 more. Science科學 couldn't不能 agree同意 more.
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科學和我都再同意也不過了
09:32
This is a country國家 that indeed確實 has gone走了 through通過
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這的確是一個已經走過一段
09:34
a very, very interesting有趣 modernization現代化.
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非常有趣的現代化時期的國家
09:38
So what it is, is these four:
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所以就是以下這個很重要
09:41
Children孩子 should survive生存, children孩子 shouldn't不能 be needed需要 for work,
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小孩只需要存活下來而不需要去工作
09:44
women婦女 should get education教育 and join加入 the labor勞動 force
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婦女應該要接受教育然後進入職場
09:47
and family家庭 planning規劃 should be accessible無障礙.
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然後家庭計畫就應該會變得較容易
09:49
Now look again at this.
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現在再來看看這
09:52
The average平均 number of children孩子 in the world世界
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目前世界上平均孩童量
09:55
is like in Colombia哥倫比亞 -- it's 2.4 today今天.
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是像哥倫比亞一樣是2.4位
09:58
There are countries國家 up here which哪一個 are very poor較差的.
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這裡也有一些相當窮困的國家
10:01
And that's where family家庭 planning規劃, better child兒童 survival生存 is needed需要.
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也就是家庭計畫和較高的孩童存活率需要的地方
10:05
I strongly非常 recommend推薦 Melinda梅琳達 Gates'蓋茨 last TEDTalkTED演講.
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我極力推薦大家Melinda Gates的上一個演講
10:09
And here, down, there are many許多 countries國家 which哪一個 are less than two children孩子 per woman女人.
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然後這裡有很多平均每位婦女生的小孩數量低於二的國家
10:14
So when I go back now to give you the answer回答 of the quiz測驗,
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所以現在我們回到一開始那個小測驗
10:18
it's two.
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答案是第二個
10:19
We have reached到達 peak child兒童.
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我們已經達到小孩人口量的最高峰
10:22
The number of children孩子 is not growing生長 any longer in the world世界.
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也就是說世界上孩童人口的數量已經不會再增加
10:25
We are still debating辯論 peak oil,
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我們還是不斷地需要石油
10:27
but we have definitely無疑 reached到達 peak child兒童.
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但是我們已經達到小孩人口量的最高峰
10:30
And the world世界 population人口 will stop growing生長.
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所以世界的人口量就會停止成長
10:32
The United聯合的 Nations國家 Population人口 Division has said
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聯合國的人口統計部就曾說過
10:35
it will stop growing生長 at 10 billion十億.
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它會在到達100億的時候停下來
10:37
But why do they grow增長 if the number of children孩子 doesn't grow增長?
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但是為什麼會在小孩數量沒有成長的情況下還增加?
10:41
Well I will show顯示 you here.
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看一下這裡
10:43
I will use these card boxes盒子 in which哪一個 your notebooks筆記本電腦 came來了.
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我會用這些小框框
10:47
They are quite相當 useful有用 for educational教育性 purposes目的.
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在一些教育目的上來說他們是很有用處的
10:51
Each card box is one billion十億 people.
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每個小框框代表10 億人口
10:54
And there are two billion十億 children孩子 in the world世界.
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然後在世界上總共有20億兒童
10:57
There are two billion十億 young年輕 people between之間 15 and 30.
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20億在15到30歲間的年輕人
11:04
These are rounded numbers數字.
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這些都是圓形的
11:05
Then there is one billion十億 between之間 30 and 45,
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然後也有10億在30到45歲之間的
11:10
almost幾乎 one between之間 45 and 60.
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接著幾乎10億的45到60歲間的人口
11:14
And then it's my box.
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然後這裡是我在的框框
11:15
This is me: 60-plus-加.
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像我一樣超過60歲的都在這
11:18
We are here on top最佳.
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我們在最上面這裡
11:20
So what will happen發生 now is what we call "the big fill-up填上."
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然後接著會發生的就是我們所說的"大填補"
11:25
You can see that it's like three billion十億 missing失踪 here.
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你可以看到這裡就像少了個30億
11:28
They are not missing失踪 because they've他們已經 died死亡; they were never born天生.
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他們是因為死了而不是消失
但其實他們從來沒有出生過
11:32
Because before 1980, there were much fewer people born天生
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因為和近30年來比較
11:36
than there were during the last 30 years年份.
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1980年以前比較沒那麼多人出生
11:39
So what will happen發生 now is quite相當 straightforward直截了當.
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所以之後會發生什麼事其實是非常明顯的了
11:42
The old, sadly可悲的是, we will die.
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難過的是,我們老人一定會死去
11:45
The rest休息 of you, you will grow增長 older舊的 and you will get two billion十億 children孩子.
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而其他的人呢
就慢慢的變老然後會有新一代20億個小孩出現
11:50
Then the old will die.
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之後老的人口又一定會死去
11:52
The rest休息 will grow增長 older舊的 and get two billion十億 children孩子.
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其他的就慢慢老去
然後就又出現新一代20億個小孩
11:56
And then again the old will die and you will get two billion十億 children孩子.
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之後老的人口又死去
新一代20億個小孩就又會出現
12:02
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
12:04
This is the great fill-up填上.
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這是種很棒的"填補"
12:08
It's inevitable必然.
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而且是無法避免的
12:11
And can you see that this increase增加 took place地點
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你可以看到這種增加發生
12:13
without life getting得到 longer and without adding加入 children孩子?
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如果沒有生活得更長、 而無需添加兒童?
12:18
Religion宗教 has very little to do with the number of babies嬰兒 per woman女人.
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宗教和每位婦女所生的小孩數量其實沒什麼關係
12:23
All the religions宗教 in the world世界 are fully充分 capable
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世界上所有的宗教都是有能力
12:26
to maintain保持 their values and adapt適應 to this new world世界.
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去維持它們的價值觀同時去適應新的時代
12:32
And we will be just 10 billion十億 in this world世界,
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然後我們每個人在這世界上就只會是那100億中的一個
12:37
if the poorest最窮 people get out of poverty貧窮,
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如果那些最貧窮的人脫離貧困
12:40
their children孩子 survive生存, they get access訪問 to family家庭 planning規劃.
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孩子們存活了下來然後他們有能力去規劃家庭
12:44
That is needed需要.
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這就是一定需要的
12:45
But it's inevitable必然 that we will be two to three billion十億 more.
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但不可避免地我們人口會比20到30億還多
12:51
So when you discuss討論 and when you plan計劃
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所以當你在推估討論時
12:54
for the resources資源 and the energy能源 needed需要 for the future未來,
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那些我們在未來所需的能源和資源
12:58
for human人的 beings眾生 on this planet行星,
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和所有在這地球上的全人類
13:00
you have to plan計劃 for 10 billion十億.
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你需要預計到個100億
13:02
Thank you very much.
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非常感謝你們
13:04
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
Translated by Zoe Chen 陳柔伊
Reviewed by Joyce Chou

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.

Why you should listen

Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.

What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.

Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.

Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)

Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.

Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.


More profile about the speaker
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com