ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.

Why you should listen

Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.

What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.

Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.

Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)

Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.

Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.


More profile about the speaker
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com
TEDxSummit

Hans Rosling: Religions and babies

Hans Rosling: Religija in otroci

Filmed:
2,912,376 views

Hans Rosling je postavil vprašanje: Imajo nekatere religije večje število rojstev kot druge in kako to vpliva na globalno rast prebivalstva? Z govorom na TEDxSummitu v Dohi, Katarju, nam prikaže podatke v času v povezavi z religijo. S svojim značilnim humorjem in ostrim vpogledom, Hans pride do presenetljivega zaključka o svetovnem številu rojstev.
- Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:16
I'm going to talk about religionreligija.
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Govoril bom o religiji.
00:20
But it's a broadširok and very delicateobčutljivo subjectpredmet,
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Ampak to je široka in zelo občutljiva tema,
00:25
so I have to limitomejitev myselfjaz.
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zato se moram omejiti.
00:27
And thereforezato I will limitomejitev myselfjaz
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Tako da se bom omejil samo na
00:29
to only talk about the linkspovezave betweenmed religionreligija and sexualityseksualnost.
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povezavo med religijo in seksualnostjo.
00:33
(LaughterSmeh)
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(Smeh)
00:35
This is a very seriousresno talk.
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To je zelo resen govor.
00:38
So I will talk of what I rememberZapomni si as the mostnajbolj wonderfulČudovito.
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Zato bom govoril o nečem, kar imam v spominu kot najlepše.
00:42
It's when the youngmladi couplepar whisperšepet,
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To je, ko mlad par zašepeta,
00:44
"TonightNocoj we are going to make a babyotroka."
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"Nocoj bova naredila otroka."
00:47
My talk will be about the impactvpliv of religionsreligije
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Govoril bom o vplivu religij
00:53
on the numberštevilka of babiesdojenčki perna womanženska.
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na število otrok na žensko.
00:57
This is indeedprav zares importantpomembno,
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To je v resnici pomembno,
00:58
because everyonevsi understandsrazume
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saj vsi razumemo
01:00
that there is some sortRazvrsti of limitomejitev
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da obstaja nekakšna meja
01:02
on how manyveliko people we can be on this planetplanet.
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koliko ljudi je lahko na tem planetu.
01:05
And there are some people
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In nekateri ljudje
01:07
who say that the worldsvet populationprebivalstvo is growingrastoče like this --
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pravijo da svetovno prebivalstvo narašča takole --
01:11
threetri billionmilijardo in 1960,
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tri miljarde v letu 1960,
01:13
sevensedem billionmilijardo just last yearleto --
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sedem miljard lansko leto --
01:15
and it will continuenadaljuj to growrastejo
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in bo še naraščalo,
01:17
because there are religionsreligije that stop womenženske from havingimeti fewmalo babiesdojenčki,
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ker so tu religije, ki preprečujejo ženskam, da bi imele manj otrok,
01:21
and it maylahko continuenadaljuj like this.
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in se bo nadaljevalo tako.
01:23
To what extentobseg are these people right?
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Do katere mere imajo ti ljudje prav?
01:27
When I was bornRojen there was lessmanj than one billionmilijardo childrenotroci in the worldsvet,
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Ko sem se rodil je bila na svetu manj kot miljarda otrok
01:32
and todaydanes, 2000, there's almostskoraj two billionmilijardo.
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in sedaj, 2000, sta tu skoraj dve miljardi.
01:36
What has happenedse je zgodilo sinceod,
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In kaj se je zgodilo od takrat,
01:38
and what do the expertsstrokovnjaki predictnapovedati will happense zgodi
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in kaj strokovnjaki napovedujejo da se bo zgodilo
01:40
with the numberštevilka of childrenotroci duringmed this centurystoletje?
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s številom otrok v tem stoletju?
01:43
This is a quizkviz. What do you think?
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Tu je kviz. Kaj vi mislite?
01:45
Do you think it will decreasezmanjšanje to one billionmilijardo?
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Mislite da se bo znižalo na eno miljardo?
01:49
Will it remainostanejo the sameenako and be two billionmilijardo by the endkonec of the centurystoletje?
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Bo ostalo enako in bosta tu dve miljardi na koncu stoletja?
01:53
Will the numberštevilka of childrenotroci increaseporast eachvsak yearleto up to 15 yearslet,
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Se bo število otrok povečevalo vsako leto do naslednjih 15 let,
01:57
or will it continuenadaljuj in the sameenako fasthitro rateoceniti
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ali se bo nadaljevalo z enako hitrostjo
01:59
and be fourštiri billionmilijardo childrenotroci up there?
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in bodo tu 4 miljarde otrok?
02:02
I will tell you by the endkonec of my speechgovor.
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Povedal vam bom na koncu mojega govora.
02:05
But now, what does religionreligija have to do with it?
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Ampak sedaj, kaj ima religija s tem?
02:10
When you want to classifyrazvrstite religionreligija,
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Ko hočete razvrstiti religije,
02:13
it's more difficulttežko than you think.
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je težje kot si mislite.
02:14
You go to WikipediaWikipedija and the first mapzemljevid you find is this.
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Greste na Wikipedijo in prvi zemljevid ki ga najdete je tale.
02:17
It dividesdeli the worldsvet into AbrahamicAbrahamska religionsreligije and EasternVzhodni religionreligija,
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Ta deli svet na Abrahamske religije in Vzhodne religije.
02:23
but that's not detailedpodrobne enoughdovolj.
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ampak to ni dovolj podrobno.
02:25
So we wentšla on and we lookedpogledal in WikipediaWikipedija, we foundnajdemo this mapzemljevid.
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Zato smo nadaljevali in pogledali na Wikipedio in našli tale zemljevid.
02:28
But that subdividesrazdeli ChristianityKrščanstvo, IslamIslam and BuddhismBudizem
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Ampak ta deli Krščanstvo, Islam in Budizem
02:33
into manyveliko subgroupspodskupine,
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v preveč podskupin,
02:35
whichki was too detailedpodrobne.
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ki so preveč podrobne.
02:36
ThereforeZato at GapminderGapminder we madeizdelane our ownlastno mapzemljevid,
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Zato smo pri Gapminderju naredili svoj zemljevid
02:40
and it looksizgleda like this.
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in izgleda takole.
02:42
EachVsak country'sdržave a bubblemehurček.
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Vsaka država je mehurček.
02:45
The sizevelikost is the populationprebivalstvo -- bigvelik ChinaKitajska, bigvelik IndiaIndija here.
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Velikost predstavlja prebivalstvo -- velika Kitajska, velika Indija tu.
02:49
And the colorbarva now is the majorityvečino religionreligija.
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In barva pove prevladujočo religijo.
02:53
It's the religionreligija where more than 50 percentodstotkov of the people
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To je religija za katero se opredeli
02:56
say that they belongpripadajo.
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več kot 50% ljudi.
02:57
It's EasternVzhodni religionreligija in IndiaIndija and ChinaKitajska and neighboringsosednje AsianAzijske countriesdržave.
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Vzhodne religije v Indiji, na Kitajskem in sosednjih azijskih državah.
03:02
IslamIslam is the majorityvečino religionreligija
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Islam je prevladujoča religija
03:04
all the way from the AtlanticAtlantika OceanOcean acrossčez the MiddleSrednji EastVzhod,
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vse od Atlantskega oceana čez Srednji vzhod,
03:08
SouthernJužni EuropeEvropi and throughskozi AsiaAziji
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južno Evropo in skozi Azijo
03:10
all the way to IndonesiaIndonezija.
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vse do Indonezije.
03:12
That's where we find IslamicIslamski majorityvečino.
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Tu najdemo islamsko večino.
03:15
And ChristianKrščanski majorityvečino religionsreligije, we see in these countriesdržave. They are bluemodra.
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In krščansko večino, vidimo jo v teh državah. Modre barve so.
03:20
And that is mostnajbolj countriesdržave in AmericaAmerika and EuropeEvropi,
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In to je večina držav v Ameriki in Evropi,
03:24
manyveliko countriesdržave in AfricaAfrika and a fewmalo in AsiaAziji.
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veliko držav v Afriki in nekaj v Aziji.
03:28
The whitebela here are countriesdržave whichki cannotne morem be classifiedrazvrščeni,
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Bele so države ki jih ne moremo uvrstiti nikamor,
03:30
because one religionreligija does not reachdoseči 50 percentodstotkov
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ker nobena religija ne dosega 50%
03:33
or there is doubtdvom about the datapodatkov or there's some other reasonrazlog.
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ali pa so podatki dvomljivi ali pa je kakšen drug razlog.
03:36
So we were carefulskrbno with that.
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Zato smo bili previdni s tem.
03:38
So bearmedveda with our simplicitypreprostost now when I take you over to this shotstrel.
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Zato nam odpustite preprostost zdaj ko vam pokažem tole.
03:42
This is in 1960.
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To je leto 1960.
03:44
And now I showshow the numberštevilka of babiesdojenčki perna womanženska here:
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In zdaj vam pokažem število otrok na žensko tu:
03:48
two, fourštiri or sixšest --
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dva, štiri ali šest --
03:51
manyveliko babiesdojenčki, fewmalo babiesdojenčki.
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malo otrok, veliko otrok.
03:53
And here the incomeprihodki perna personoseba in comparableprimerljiv dollarsdolarjev.
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In tu je dohodek na osebo v dolarjih.
03:56
The reasonrazlog for that is that manyveliko people say you have to get richbogat first
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To pa zato ker veliko ljudi pravi, da moraš najprej obogateti,
04:00
before you get fewmalo babiesdojenčki.
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preden dobiš malo otrok.
04:01
So lownizka incomeprihodki here, highvisoko incomeprihodki there.
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Torej nizek dohodek tu, visok tu.
04:05
And indeedprav zares in 1960,
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In res, leta 1960,
04:07
you had to be a richbogat ChristianKrščanski to have fewmalo babiesdojenčki.
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si moral biti bogat kristjan, da si imel malo otrok.
04:09
The exceptionizjema was JapanJaponska.
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Izjema je bila Japonska.
04:12
JapanJaponska here was regardedobravnava as an exceptionizjema.
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Japonska je tu obravnana kot izjema.
04:15
OtherwiseDrugače it was only ChristianKrščanski countriesdržave.
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Drugače je šlo le za krščanske države.
04:17
But there was alsotudi manyveliko ChristianKrščanski countriesdržave
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Ampak bilo je tudi veliko krščanskih držav
04:19
that had sixšest to sevensedem babiesdojenčki perna womanženska.
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ki so imele veliko otrok na žensko.
04:22
But they were in LatinLatinski AmericaAmerika or they were in AfricaAfrika.
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Ampak bile so v Latinski Ameriki ali v Afriki.
04:27
And countriesdržave with IslamIslam as the majorityvečino religionreligija,
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In države, kjer je Islam prevladujoča religija,
04:31
all of them almostskoraj had sixšest to sevensedem childrenotroci perna womanženska,
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vse so imele šest do sedem otrok na žensko,
04:36
irregardlessne glede of the incomeprihodki levelravni.
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ne glede na dohodek.
04:38
And all the EasternVzhodni religionsreligije exceptrazen JapanJaponska had the sameenako levelravni.
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In vse vzhodne religije razen Japonske prav tako.
04:43
Now let's see what has happenedse je zgodilo in the worldsvet.
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Zdaj pa poglejmo kaj se je zgodilo s svetom.
04:45
I startZačni the worldsvet, and here we go.
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Zaženemo svet in gremo.
04:46
Now 1962 -- can you see they're gettingpridobivanje a little richerbogatejše,
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Zdaj je leto 1962 -- vidite, postajamo malo bogatejši,
04:50
but the numberštevilka of babiesdojenčki perna womanženska is fallingpadec?
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ampak, število otrok na žensko, ali pada?
04:52
Look at ChinaKitajska. They're fallingpadec fairlypošteno fasthitro.
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Poglejte Kitajsko. Številka hitro upada.
04:55
And all of the MuslimMuslimanske majorityvečino countriesdržave acrossčez the incomeprihodki are comingprihajajo down,
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In v vseh muslimanskih državah ne glede na dohodek število otrok upada
04:59
as do the ChristianKrščanski majorityvečino countriesdržave in the middlesredi incomeprihodki rangerazpon.
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tako kot v Krščanskih državah s srednjim dohodkom.
05:04
And when we entervnesite into this centurystoletje,
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In ko pridemo v to stoletje,
05:07
you'llboš find more than halfpol of mankindčloveštvo down here.
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boste našli več kot polovico človeštva tu.
05:10
And by 2010, we are actuallydejansko 80 percentodstotkov of humansljudje
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In do leta 2010 80% ljudi
05:15
who livev živo in countriesdržave with about two childrenotroci perna womanženska.
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živi v državah z dvema otrokoma na žensko.
05:19
(ApplauseAplavz)
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(Aplavz)
05:23
It's a quitečisto amazingneverjetno developmentrazvoj whichki has happenedse je zgodilo.
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Kar osupljiv je napredek, ki se je zgodil.
05:27
(ApplauseAplavz)
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(Aplavz)
05:28
And these are countriesdržave from UnitedVelika StatesDržave here,
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In te države iz Združenih držav tu,
05:31
with $40,000 perna capitaprebivalca,
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s 40.000$ dohodka po glavi,
05:34
FranceFrancija, RussiaRusija, IranIran,
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Francija, Rusija, Iran,
05:37
MexicoMehika, TurkeyTurčija, AlgeriaAlžirija,
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Mehika, Turčija, Alžirija,
05:40
IndonesiaIndonezija, IndiaIndija
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Indonezija, Indija,
05:42
and all the way to BangladeshBangladeš and VietnamVietnam,
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in vse do Bangladeša in Vietnama,
05:45
whichki has lessmanj than fivepet percentodstotkov of the incomeprihodki perna personoseba of the UnitedVelika StatesDržave
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ki ima manj kot pet procentov dohodka Združenih držav
05:49
and the sameenako amountznesek of babiesdojenčki perna womanženska.
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in enako število otrok na žensko.
05:52
I can tell you that the datapodatkov on the numberštevilka of childrenotroci perna womanženska
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Lahko vam povem, da so podatki o številu otrok na žensko
05:56
is surprisinglypresenetljivo good in all countriesdržave.
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presenetljivo dobri v vseh državah.
05:58
We get that from the censuspopis datapodatkov.
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Te podatke dobimo iz popisa prebivalstva.
06:00
It's not one of these statisticsstatistiko whichki is very doubtfuldvomljiva.
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Ti statistični podatki niso dojmljivi.
06:03
So what we can concludezaključiti
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Tako da lahko zaključimo,
06:04
is you don't have to get richbogat to have fewmalo childrenotroci.
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da ni treba biti bogat, da imaš manj otrok.
06:07
It has happenedse je zgodilo acrossčez the worldsvet.
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Zgodilo se je širom sveta.
06:09
And then when we look at religionsreligije,
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In potem pogledamo religije,
06:12
we can see that the EasternVzhodni religionsreligije,
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in lahko vidimo Vzhodne religije
06:15
indeedprav zares there's not one singlesamski countrydržava with a majorityvečino of that religionreligija
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in res, niti ena sama država kjer prevladujejo te religije
06:18
that has more than threetri childrenotroci.
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nima več kot treh otrok.
06:19
WhereasKer with IslamIslam as a majorityvečino religionreligija and ChristianityKrščanstvo,
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Medtem ko v državah kjer prevladujeta Islam ali Krščanstvo
06:24
you see countriesdržave all the way.
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vidimo vse vrste držav.
06:25
But there's no majorMajor differenceRazlika.
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Ampak nobene pomembne razlike ni.
06:27
There's no majorMajor differenceRazlika betweenmed these religionsreligije.
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Med temi religijami ni nobene pomembne razlike.
06:31
There is a differenceRazlika with incomeprihodki.
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Tu je razlika v dohodku.
06:33
The countriesdržave whichki have manyveliko babiesdojenčki perna womanženska here,
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Države ki imajo veliko otrok na žensko tu,
06:37
they have quitečisto lownizka incomeprihodki.
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imajo precej nizek dohodek.
06:39
MostVečina of them are in sub-SaharanPodsaharski AfricaAfrika.
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Večina je v podsaharski Afriki.
06:42
But there are alsotudi countriesdržave here
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Ampak prav tako države tu,
06:45
like GuatemalaGvatemala, like PapuaPapua NewNove GuineaGvineja,
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na primer Gvatemala, Papua Nova Gvineja,
06:49
like YemenJemen and AfghanistanAfganistan.
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na primer Jemen in Afganistan.
06:52
ManyVeliko think that AfghanistanAfganistan here and CongoKongo,
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Mnogi mislijo da Afganistan tu in Kongo,
06:56
whichki have sufferedtrpel severehudo conflictskonfliktov,
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ki sta utrpela hude konflikte,
06:59
that they don't have fasthitro populationprebivalstvo growthrast.
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nimata hitre rasti prebivalstva.
07:02
It's the other way around.
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Ravno obratno je.
07:04
In the worldsvet todaydanes, it's the countriesdržave that have the highestnajvišji mortalitysmrtnost ratesstopnje
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V današnjem svetu, države, ki imajo največjo umrljivost,
07:08
that have the fastestnajhitrejši populationprebivalstvo growthrast.
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imajo tudi najhitrejšo rast prebivalstva.
07:10
Because the deathsmrt of a childotrok is compensatednadomestilo by one more childotrok.
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Zato ker smrt enega otroka nadomesti rojstvo še enega.
07:14
These countriesdržave have sixšest childrenotroci perna womanženska.
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Te države imajo šest otrok na žensko.
07:17
They have a sadžalostno deathsmrt rateoceniti of one to two childrenotroci perna womanženska.
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Imajo žalostno povprečje smrti enega do dva otroka na žensko.
07:21
But 30 yearslet from now, AfghanistanAfganistan will go from 30 millionmilijonov to 60 millionmilijonov.
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Ampak čez 30 let bo Afganistansko prebivalstvo naraslo z 30 na 60 miljonov.
07:25
CongoKongo will go from 60 to 120.
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Kongo bo zrasel s 60 na 120.
07:28
That's where we have the fasthitro populationprebivalstvo growthrast.
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Tu imamo hitro rast prebivalstva.
07:31
And manyveliko think that these countriesdržave are stagnantstoječe, but they are not.
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Mnogi mislijo, da te države stagnirajo, ampak ne.
07:35
Let me compareprimerjati SenegalSenegal, a MuslimMuslimanske dominatedprevladujejo countrydržava,
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Primerjajmo Senegal, pretežno muslimansko državo,
07:39
with a ChristianKrščanski dominatedprevladujejo countrydržava, GhanaGana.
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s pretežno krščansko državo, Ghano.
07:41
I take them backwardsnazaj here to theirnjihovi independenceneodvisnost,
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Peljem ju nazaj do njune samostojnosti,
07:45
when they were up here in the beginningzačetek of the 1960s.
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ko sta bili tu v začetku šestdesetih.
07:49
Just look what they have doneKončano.
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Poglejte kaj jima je uspelo.
07:51
It's an amazingneverjetno improvementizboljšava,
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To je izreden napredek,
07:52
from sevensedem childrenotroci perna womanženska,
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s sedem otrok na žensko,
07:55
they'veoni so goneizginil all the way down to betweenmed fourštiri and fivepet.
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so se spustili med štiri in pet.
07:58
It's a tremendousizjemno improvementizboljšava.
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To je ogromen napredek.
07:59
So what does it take?
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Kaj je torej potrebno?
08:01
Well we know quitečisto well what is neededpotrebno in these countriesdržave.
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Vsi dobro vemo kaj je potrebno v teh državah.
08:04
You need to have childrenotroci to survivepreživeti.
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Imeti moraš otroke, da preživiš.
08:07
You need to get out of the deepestNajgloblji povertyrevščina
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Priti moraš iz najglobje revščine,
08:09
so childrenotroci are not of importancepomembnost for work in the familydružina.
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da otroci niso več pomembni za delo v družini.
08:13
You need to have accessdostop to some familydružina planningnačrtovanje.
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Imeti moraš dostop do načrtovanja družine.
08:16
And you need the fourthčetrti factorfaktor, whichki perhapsmorda is the mostnajbolj importantpomembno factorfaktor.
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In potrebuješ še četrti dejavnik, ki je morda najbolj pomemben.
08:20
But let me illustrateilustrirajte that fourthčetrti factorfaktor
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Ampak naj vam orišem četrti dejavnik
08:23
by looking at QatarKatar.
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s pogledom na Katar.
08:25
Here we have QatarKatar todaydanes, and there we have BangladeshBangladeš todaydanes.
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Tukaj vidimo Katar danes in tukaj Bangladeš danes.
08:29
If I take these countriesdržave back to the yearslet of theirnjihovi independenceneodvisnost,
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Če peljemo ti državi nazaj v leta njune neodvisnosti
08:33
whichki is almostskoraj the sameenako yearleto -- '71, '72 --
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kar je bilo skoraj istega leta --'71, '72 --
08:36
it's a quitečisto amazingneverjetno developmentrazvoj whichki had happenedse je zgodilo.
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prav neverjeten je napredek, ki se je zgodil.
08:40
Look at BangladeshBangladeš and QatarKatar.
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Poglejte Bangladeš in Katar.
08:41
With so differentdrugačen incomesdohodkov, it's almostskoraj the sameenako droppadec
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S tako različnim dohodkom, a skoraj enakim padcem
08:45
in numberštevilka of babiesdojenčki perna womanženska.
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v številu otrok na žensko.
08:47
And what is the reasonrazlog in QatarKatar?
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In kaj je razlog za to v Katarju?
08:49
Well I do as I always do.
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No, naredil sem to kar vedno naredim.
08:50
I wentšla to the statisticalstatistično authorityorgan of QatarKatar, to theirnjihovi webpagespletne strani --
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Šel sem na stran statističnega urada v Katarju --
08:54
It's a very good webpagespletne strani. I recommendpriporočam it --
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Zelo dobra stran je. Priporočam ogled --
08:56
and I lookedpogledal up -- oh yeah, you can have lots of funzabavno here --
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in sem si pogledal -- o ja, tam se lahko zelo zabavate --
09:03
and providedzagotovljena freeprost of chargeobtožiti, I foundnajdemo Qatar'sKatarju socialsocialno trendstrende.
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in tam sem zastonj našel podatke o socialnih trendih v Katarju.
09:07
Very interestingzanimivo. Lots to readpreberite.
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Zelo zanimivo. Veliko za prebrati.
09:09
I foundnajdemo fertilityplodnost at birthrojstvo, and I lookedpogledal at totalskupaj fertilityplodnost rateoceniti perna womanženska.
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In našel sem podatke o rojstvih in si pogledal podatke o številu otrok na žensko.
09:14
These are the scholarsŠtipendisti and expertsstrokovnjaki in the governmentvlada agencyagencija in QatarKatar,
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To so učenjaki in strokovnjaki v vladni agenciji v Katarju,
09:17
and they say the mostnajbolj importantpomembno factorsdejavniki are:
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in oni pravijo, da so najpomembnejši faktorji:
09:20
"IncreasedPovečala agestarost at first marriagezakon,
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1942
"Večja starost ob prvi poroki,
09:22
increasedpovečal educationalizobraževanje levelravni of QatariQatari womanženska
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večja izobrazba Katarskh žensk
09:25
and more womenženske integratedintegrirano in the laborporod forcesila."
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in več zaposlenih žensk."
09:28
I couldn'tni mogel agreese strinjam more. ScienceZnanost couldn'tni mogel agreese strinjam more.
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Ne bi se mogel bolj strinjati. Znanost se ne bi mogla bolj strinjati.
09:32
This is a countrydržava that indeedprav zares has goneizginil throughskozi
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To je država, ki je doživela
09:34
a very, very interestingzanimivo modernizationposodobitev.
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zelo zelo zanmiv razvoj.
09:38
So what it is, is these fourštiri:
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Torej, to so ti štirje dejavniki:
09:41
ChildrenOtroci should survivepreživeti, childrenotroci shouldn'tne bi smel be neededpotrebno for work,
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Otroci morajo preživeti, otrok ne smemo potrebovati za delo,
09:44
womenženske should get educationizobraževanje and joinPridružite se the laborporod forcesila
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ženske se morajo izobraziti in biti zaposlene,
09:47
and familydružina planningnačrtovanje should be accessibledostopen.
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in načrtovanje družine mora biti dostopno.
09:49
Now look again at this.
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Poglejte spet sem.
09:52
The averagepovprečje numberštevilka of childrenotroci in the worldsvet
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Povprečno število otrok v svetu
09:55
is like in ColombiaKolumbija -- it's 2.4 todaydanes.
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je kot v Kolumbiji -- 2.4.
09:58
There are countriesdržave up here whichki are very poorslabo.
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Tu zgoraj so države, ki so zelo revne.
10:01
And that's where familydružina planningnačrtovanje, better childotrok survivalpreživetje is neededpotrebno.
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In tu potrebujejo načrtovanje družine in večje preživetje otrok.
10:05
I stronglymočno recommendpriporočam MelindaMelinda Gates'Gates last TEDTalkTEDTalk.
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Močno vam priporočam zadnje TED predavanje Melinde Gates.
10:09
And here, down, there are manyveliko countriesdržave whichki are lessmanj than two childrenotroci perna womanženska.
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In tu, spodaj, je veliko držav, ki imajo manj kot dva otroka na žensko.
10:14
So when I go back now to give you the answerodgovor of the quizkviz,
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Zdaj bom šel nazaj in vam povedal odgovor na vprašanje v kvizu.
10:18
it's two.
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Odgovor je 2.
10:19
We have reacheddosegel peakvrh childotrok.
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Dosegli smo vrh števila otrok.
10:22
The numberštevilka of childrenotroci is not growingrastoče any longerdlje in the worldsvet.
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Število otrok ne narašča več.
10:25
We are still debatingrazprava peakvrh oilolje,
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O vrhu cen nafte še debatiramo,
10:27
but we have definitelydefinitivno reacheddosegel peakvrh childotrok.
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ampak vrh števila otrok smo že dosegli.
10:30
And the worldsvet populationprebivalstvo will stop growingrastoče.
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In svetovno prebivalstvo bo nehalo naraščati.
10:32
The UnitedVelika NationsNarodov PopulationPrebivalstva DivisionDelitev has said
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Oddelek za prebivalstvo Združenih narodov je dejal
10:35
it will stop growingrastoče at 10 billionmilijardo.
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da se bo rast ustavila pri 10 miljardah.
10:37
But why do they growrastejo if the numberštevilka of childrenotroci doesn't growrastejo?
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Ampak zakaj narašča če ne narašča število otrok?
10:41
Well I will showshow you here.
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Jaz vam bom pokazal tu.
10:43
I will use these cardkartica boxesškatle in whichki your notebookszvezki cameprišel.
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Uporabil bom te kartonaste škatle v katerih so bili vaši zvezki.
10:47
They are quitečisto usefulkoristno for educationalizobraževanje purposesnamene.
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Kar uporabne so za izobraževalne namene.
10:51
EachVsak cardkartica boxškatla is one billionmilijardo people.
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Vsaka kartonasta škatla predstavlja eno miljardo ljudi.
10:54
And there are two billionmilijardo childrenotroci in the worldsvet.
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In na svetu sta 2 miljardi otrok.
10:57
There are two billionmilijardo youngmladi people betweenmed 15 and 30.
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Tu sta dve miljardi mladih ljudi med 15 in 30.
11:04
These are roundedzaokroženo numbersštevilke.
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To so zaokrožene številke.
11:05
Then there is one billionmilijardo betweenmed 30 and 45,
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Potem imamo eno miljardo med 30 in 45,
11:10
almostskoraj one betweenmed 45 and 60.
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in skoraj eno med 45 in 60.
11:14
And then it's my boxškatla.
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In tu je moja škatla.
11:15
This is me: 60-plus-plus.
216
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To sem jaz: 60 plus.
11:18
We are here on topna vrh.
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Mi smo tu na vrhu.
11:20
So what will happense zgodi now is what we call "the bigvelik fill-upizpolnite."
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Kar se bo zgodilo sedaj je nekaj čemur pravimo "velika dopolnitev."
11:25
You can see that it's like threetri billionmilijardo missingpogrešam here.
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Lahko vidite, da tukaj manjkajo kakšne 3 miljarde.
11:28
They are not missingpogrešam because they'veoni so diedumrl; they were never bornRojen.
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Ne manjkajo zato, ker bi umrli, nikoli se niso rodili.
11:32
Because before 1980, there were much fewermanj people bornRojen
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Pred letom 1980 se je rodilo veliko manj ljudi
11:36
than there were duringmed the last 30 yearslet.
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kot v zadnjh 30 leth.
11:39
So what will happense zgodi now is quitečisto straightforwardpreprosto.
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Kaj se bo zgodilo zdaj je precej preprosto.
11:42
The oldstar, sadlyna žalost, we will dieumreti.
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Starejši bomo, na žalost, umrli.
11:45
The restpočitek of you, you will growrastejo olderstarejši and you will get two billionmilijardo childrenotroci.
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Ostali, vi, boste ostareli in imeli dve miljardi otrok.
11:50
Then the oldstar will dieumreti.
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In nato bodo stari umrli.
11:52
The restpočitek will growrastejo olderstarejši and get two billionmilijardo childrenotroci.
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Ostali bodo ostareli in imeli dve miljardi otrok.
11:56
And then again the oldstar will dieumreti and you will get two billionmilijardo childrenotroci.
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In spet bodo starejši umrl in vi boste dobil dve miljardi otrok.
12:02
(ApplauseAplavz)
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(Aplavz)
12:04
This is the great fill-upizpolnite.
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To je velika dopolnitev.
12:08
It's inevitableneizogibno.
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Neizbežna je.
12:11
And can you see that this increaseporast tookvzel placemesto
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In ali lahko vidite da se je ta rast zgodila,
12:13
withoutbrez life gettingpridobivanje longerdlje and withoutbrez addingdodajanje childrenotroci?
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brez da bi se življenje podaljšalo in brez da bi dodali otroke?
12:18
ReligionVere has very little to do with the numberštevilka of babiesdojenčki perna womanženska.
234
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Religija ima zelo majhen vpliv na število otrok na žensko.
12:23
All the religionsreligije in the worldsvet are fullyv celoti capablesposoben
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Vse religije na svetu so popolnoma sposobne
12:26
to maintainvzdrževati theirnjihovi valuesvrednosti and adaptprilagoditi to this newnovo worldsvet.
236
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ohraniti svoje vrednote in se prilagoditi temu novemu svetu.
12:32
And we will be just 10 billionmilijardo in this worldsvet,
237
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In samo 10 miljard nas bo na tem svetu,
12:37
if the poorestnajrevnejše people get out of povertyrevščina,
238
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če se bodo najrevnejši rešili iz revščine,
12:40
theirnjihovi childrenotroci survivepreživeti, they get accessdostop to familydružina planningnačrtovanje.
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če bodo njihovi otroci preživeli, če bodo imeli dostop do načrtovanja družine.
12:44
That is neededpotrebno.
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To je potrebno.
12:45
But it's inevitableneizogibno that we will be two to threetri billionmilijardo more.
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Ampak neizogibno je, da nas bo še dve ali tri miljarde več.
12:51
So when you discussrazpravljali and when you plannačrt
242
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Torej ko razglabljate in načrtujete,
12:54
for the resourcesvirov and the energyenergija neededpotrebno for the futureprihodnost,
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o virih in energiji potrebni za prihodnost,
12:58
for humančlovek beingsbitja on this planetplanet,
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za ljudi na tem planetu,
13:00
you have to plannačrt for 10 billionmilijardo.
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morate načrtovati za 10 miljard.
13:02
Thank you very much.
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Najlepša hvala.
13:04
(ApplauseAplavz)
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(Aplavz)
Translated by Nika Kotnik
Reviewed by Tilen Pigac - EFZG

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.

Why you should listen

Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.

What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.

Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.

Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)

Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.

Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.


More profile about the speaker
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com

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