TED@BCG San Francisco
Philip Evans: How data will transform business
Philip Evans: Hvordan data vil forandre virksomheder
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Hvordan ser fremtiden ud for virksomheder? I en informativ talk giver Philip Evans et hurtigt indblik i to gamle teorier i strategi - og forklarer hvorfor han synes, at de essentielt er ugyldige.
Philip Evans - Consultant
BCG's Philip Evans has a bold prediction for the future of business strategy -- and it starts with Big Data. Full bio
BCG's Philip Evans has a bold prediction for the future of business strategy -- and it starts with Big Data. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I'm going to talk a little bit about strategy
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Jeg vil tale en smule om strategi
00:14
and its relationship with technology.
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og dens forhold med teknologi.
00:18
We tend to think of business strategy
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Vi plejer at tænke på forretningsstrategi
00:21
as being a rather abstract body
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som værende en abstrakt samling
00:23
of essentially economic thought,
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af essentielt økonomiske tanker,
00:25
perhaps rather timeless.
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måske ganske tidsløse.
00:27
I'm going to argue that, in fact,
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Jeg vil argumentere for, at faktisk
00:28
business strategy has always been premised
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har forretningsstrategi altid været baseret
00:31
on assumptions about technology,
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på antagelser om teknologi,
00:33
that those assumptions are changing,
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at de antagelser ændrer sig,
00:35
and, in fact, changing quite dramatically,
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og faktisk ændrer sig temmelig drastisk,
00:38
and that therefore what that will drive us to
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og hvad det derfor vil drive os til
00:41
is a different concept of what we mean
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er et anderledes koncept af, hvad vi mener
00:44
by business strategy.
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med forretningsstrategi.
00:47
Let me start, if I may,
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Lad mig starte, hvis jeg må,
00:48
with a little bit of history.
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med en lille smule historie.
00:51
The idea of strategy in business
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Ideen om strategi i forretning
00:53
owes its origins to two intellectual giants:
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skylder sin oprindelse til to intellektuelle giganter:
00:56
Bruce Henderson, the founder of BCG,
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Bruce Henderson, stifteren af BCG,
00:58
and Michael Porter, professor
at the Harvard Business School.
at the Harvard Business School.
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og Michael Porter, professor ved Harvard Business School.
01:02
Henderson's central idea was what you might call
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Henderson's centrale ide var, hvad du måske ville kalde
01:05
the Napoleonic idea of concentrating mass
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den napoleoniske ide om at koncentrere masse
01:08
against weakness, of overwhelming the enemy.
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over for svaghed, om at overvælde fjenden.
01:10
What Henderson recognized was that,
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Hvad Henderson opdagede var,
01:12
in the business world,
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at i forretningsverdenen,
01:14
there are many phenomena which are characterized
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er der mange fænomener, som er karakteriseret af,
01:16
by what economists would call increasing returns --
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hvad økonomer ville kalde voksende skalaafkast --
01:18
scale, experience.
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størrelse, erfaring.
01:20
The more you do of something,
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Jo mere du gør af noget,
01:22
disproportionately the better you get.
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uforholdsmæssigt bedre vil du få.
01:24
And therefore he found a logic for investing
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Og derfor fandt han en logik for at investere
01:27
in such kinds of overwhelming mass
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i sådanne former for overvældende størrelse.
01:30
in order to achieve competitive advantage.
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for at opnå en konkurrencemæssig fordel.
01:32
And that was the first introduction
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Og det var den første introduktion
01:34
of essentially a military concept of strategy
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af et, i essensen, militært strategikoncept
01:37
into the business world.
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i forretningsverdenen.
01:40
Porter agreed with that premise,
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Porter var enig med den præmis
01:43
but he qualified it.
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Men han berettigede den.
01:44
He pointed out, correctly, that that's all very well,
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Han påpegede, korrekt, at det er alt sammen godt,
01:47
but businesses actually have multiple steps to them.
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men forretninger har adskillige trin.
01:51
They have different components,
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De har forskellige komponenter,
01:53
and each of those components might be driven
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og hver af de komponenter er måske drevet
01:55
by a different kind of strategy.
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af en anden form for strategi.
01:57
A company or a business
might actually be advantaged
might actually be advantaged
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En virksomhed eller en forretning har måske en fordel
01:59
in some activities but disadvantaged in others.
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i nogle aktiviteter, men ulemper i andre.
02:03
He formed the concept of the value chain,
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Han etablerede konceptet om værdikæden,
02:05
essentially the sequence of steps with which
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essentielt de trin, med hvilke
02:08
a, shall we say, raw material, becomes a component,
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et, skal vi sige, råmateriale, bliver en komponent,
02:11
becomes assembled into a finished product,
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bliver samlet til et færdigt produkt,
02:12
and then is distributed, for example,
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og så er distribueret, for eksempel,
02:15
and he argued that advantage accrued
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og han argumenterede for at fordele tilskrives
02:18
to each of those components,
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til hver af disse komponenter,
02:19
and that the advantage of the whole
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og at fordelen af det hele
02:21
was in some sense the sum or the average
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var i et vist henseende, summen eller gennemsnittet
02:23
of that of its parts.
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af dets dele.
02:25
And this idea of the value chain was predicated
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Og denne ide om værdikæden var baseret
02:28
on the recognition that
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på erkendelsen, at hvad
02:30
what holds a business together is transaction costs,
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der holder en virksomhed sammen er transaktionsomkostninger,
02:34
that in essence you need to coordinate,
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som du er nødt til at koordinere,
02:36
organizations are more efficient at coordination
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organisationer er mere effektive til at koordinere
02:39
than markets, very often,
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end markeder ofte er,
02:41
and therefore the nature and role and boundaries
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og derfor er organisationers beskaffenhed, rolle og grænser
02:44
of the cooperation are defined by transaction costs.
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defineret af transaktionsomkostninger.
02:47
It was on those two ideas,
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Det var på de to ideer,
02:50
Henderson's idea of increasing returns
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Hendersons ide om voksende skalaafkast
02:53
to scale and experience,
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ved størrelse og erfaring,
02:55
and Porter's idea of the value chain,
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og Porters ide om værdikæden,
02:57
encompassing heterogenous elements,
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omfattende heterogene elementer,
02:59
that the whole edifice of business strategy
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som hele konceptet om forretningsstrategi
03:03
was subsequently erected.
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senere blev opført.
03:05
Now what I'm going to argue is
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Hvad jeg vil argumentere for er,
03:08
that those premises are, in fact, being invalidated.
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at de præmisser, faktisk, er blevet ugyldiggjort.
03:14
First of all, let's think about transaction costs.
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For det første, lad os tænke på transaktionsomkostninger.
03:16
There are really two components
to transaction costs.
to transaction costs.
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Der er virkelig to komponenter til transaktionsomkostninger.
03:19
One is about processing information,
and the other is about communication.
and the other is about communication.
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Et er om forarbejdningen af information, og det andet er om kommunikation.
03:21
These are the economics of
processing and communicating
processing and communicating
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Disse er økonomierne af forarbejdning og kommunikation
03:25
as they have evolved over a long period of time.
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som de har udviklet over en lang tidsperiode.
03:27
As we all know from so many contexts,
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Som vi alle ved fra så mange kontekster,
03:30
they have been radically transformed
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er de blevet radikalt transformeret
03:32
since the days when Porter and Henderson
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siden dagene, hvor Porter og Henderson
03:35
first formulated their theories.
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først formulerede deres teorier.
03:37
In particular, since the mid-'90s,
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Specielt, siden midt 90'erne,
03:39
communications costs have actually been falling
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er kommunikationsomkostninger faktisk faldet
03:41
even faster than transaction costs,
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endnu hurtigere end transaktionsomkostninger,
03:43
which is why communication, the Internet,
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hvilket er hvorfor kommunikation, internettet,
03:45
has exploded in such a dramatic fashion.
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har eksploderet på sådan en dramatisk måde.
03:50
Now, those falling transaction costs
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Disse faldende transaktionsomkostninger
03:52
have profound consequences,
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har omfattende konsekvenser,
03:54
because if transaction costs are the glue
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for hvis transaktionsomkostninger er limen,
03:56
that hold value chains together, and they are falling,
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som holder værdikæden sammen, og de er faldende,
03:58
there is less to economize on.
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så er der mindre at økonomisere på.
04:00
There is less need for vertically
integrated organization,
integrated organization,
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Der er brug for mindre vertikalt integreret organisation,
04:03
and value chains at least can break up.
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og som minimum kan værdikæder blive brudt op.
04:06
They needn't necessarily, but they can.
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De behøver ikke nødvendigvis, men de kan.
04:08
In particular, it then becomes possible for
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Specifikt bliver det så muligt for
04:10
a competitor in one business
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en konkurrent i en virksomhed,
04:12
to use their position in one step of the value chain
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at benytte deres position i et af trinnene i værdikæden
04:15
in order to penetrate or attack
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til at penetrere, angribe
04:17
or disintermediate the competitor in another.
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eller gå uden om konkurrenten i en anden.
04:20
That is not just an abstract proposition.
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Det er ikke bare et abstrakt udsagn.
04:23
There are many very specific stories
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Der er mange specifikke historier
04:25
of how that actually happened.
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om, hvordan det faktisk er sket.
04:27
A poster child example was
the encyclopedia business.
the encyclopedia business.
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Et klassisk eksempel er encyklopædiforretningen.
04:30
The encyclopedia business
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Encyklopædiforretningen var,
04:31
in the days of leatherbound books
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tilbage i dagene med læderindbundne bøger,
04:34
was basically a distribution business.
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dybest set en distributionsforretning.
04:35
Most of the cost was the
commission to the salesmen.
commission to the salesmen.
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Det meste af omkostningerne var provisionen til sælgerne.
04:38
The CD-ROM and then the Internet came along,
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Så kom CD-ROM'en og derefter internettet,
04:40
new technologies made the distribution of knowledge
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nye teknologier gjorde distributionen af viden
04:44
many orders of magnitude cheaper,
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mange gange billigere,
04:46
and the encyclopedia industry collapsed.
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og encyklopædiindustrien faldt sammen.
04:49
It's now, of course, a very familiar story.
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Det er nu, selvfølgelig, en meget bekendt historie.
04:52
This, in fact, more generally was the story
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Dette var faktisk mere generelt historien
04:54
of the first generation of the Internet economy.
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om den første generation af internetøkonomien.
04:56
It was about falling transaction costs
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Den var om faldende transaktionsomkostninger,
04:58
breaking up value chains
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bryde værdikæder op,
05:00
and therefore allowing disintermediation,
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og derefter gøre det muligt at gå uden om mellemled,
05:02
or what we call deconstruction.
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eller hvad vi kalder dekonstruktion.
05:05
One of the questions I was occasionally asked was,
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Et af de spørgsmål. som jeg til tider blev stillet var,
05:07
well, what's going to replace the encyclopedia
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hvad vil erstatte encyklopædien,
05:10
when Britannica no longer has a business model?
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når Britannica ikke længere har en forretningsmodel?
05:12
And it was a while before
the answer became manifest.
the answer became manifest.
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Og der gik noget tid før svaret manifesterede sig.
05:14
Now, of course, we know
what it is: it's the Wikipedia.
what it is: it's the Wikipedia.
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Nu ved vi selvfølgelig, hvad det er: det er Wikipedia.
05:17
Now what's special about the
Wikipedia is not its distribution.
Wikipedia is not its distribution.
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Hvad der er specielt ved Wikipedia er ikke dets distribution.
05:20
What's special about the Wikipedia
is the way it's produced.
is the way it's produced.
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Hvad der er specielt ved Wikipedia er måden, som den er produceret på.
05:23
The Wikipedia, of course, is an encyclopedia
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Wikipedia, selvfølgelig, er en encyklopædi,
05:25
created by its users.
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som er skabt af dets brugere.
05:28
And this, in fact, defines what you might call
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Og dette definerer faktisk, hvad du måske ville kalde
05:30
the second decade of the Internet economy,
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det andet årti af internetøkonomien,
05:32
the decade in which the Internet as a noun
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årtiet i hvilket internettet som substantiv,
05:35
became the Internet as a verb.
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blev internettet som et verbum.
05:37
It became a set of conversations,
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Det blev et sæt af samtaler,
05:39
the era in which user-generated
content and social networks
content and social networks
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æraen hvor brugergeneret indhold og sociale netværk
05:43
became the dominant phenomenon.
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blev det dominerende fænomen.
05:46
Now what that really meant
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Hvad det virkelig har betydet,
05:48
in terms of the Porter-Henderson framework
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i relation til Porter-Henderson frameworket,
05:51
was the collapse of certain
kinds of economies of scale.
kinds of economies of scale.
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var sammenbruddet af visse slags af stordriftsfordele.
05:55
It turned out that tens of thousands
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Det viste sig, at titusindvis
05:57
of autonomous individuals writing an encyclopedia
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af autonome individer som skriver en encyklopædi
06:00
could do just as good a job,
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kan gør et ligeså godt stykke arbejde,
06:02
and certainly a much cheaper job,
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og i hvert fald et meget billigere stykke arbejde,
06:03
than professionals in a hierarchical organization.
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end professionelle i en hierarkisk organisation.
06:06
So basically what was happening was that one layer
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Så hvad der skete var, at et lag
06:09
of this value chain was becoming fragmented,
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af denne værdikæde blev fragmenteret,
06:12
as individuals could take over
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da individuelle kunne tage over,
06:13
where organizations were no longer needed.
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hvor der ikke længere var behov for organisationer.
06:17
But there's another question
that obviously this graph poses,
that obviously this graph poses,
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Men der er et andet spørgsmål, som denne graf indlysende stiller,
06:19
which is, okay, we've
gone through two decades --
gone through two decades --
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som er, okay, vi er gået igennem to årtier --
06:22
does anything distinguish the third?
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er der noget, som udmærker det tredje?
06:24
And what I'm going to argue is that indeed
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Og hvad jeg vil argumentere for er, at faktisk
06:26
something does distinguish the third,
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udmærker noget faktisk det tredje,
06:28
and it maps exactly on to the kind of
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og det relaterer sig præcis til den form for
06:30
Porter-Henderson logic that
we've been talking about.
we've been talking about.
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Porter-Henderson logik, som vi har snakket om.
06:33
And that is, about data.
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Og det er om data.
06:35
If we go back to around 2000,
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Hvis vi går tilbage til omkring 2000,
06:37
a lot of people were talking
about the information revolution,
about the information revolution,
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mange snakkede om informations revolutionen,
06:39
and it was indeed true that the world's stock of data
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og det var rigtigt, at verdens lager af data
06:42
was growing, indeed growing quite fast.
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var voksende, faktisk hastigt voksende,
06:44
but it was still at that point overwhelmingly analog.
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men den var stadig på det tidspunkt overvældende analog.
06:47
We go forward to 2007,
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Vi går frem til 2007,
06:49
not only had the world's stock of data exploded,
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ikke blot havde verdens lager af data eksploderet,
06:52
but there'd been this massive substitution
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men der havde været denne massive substituering
06:54
of digital for analog.
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af digital for analog.
06:56
And more important even than that,
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Og endnu mere vigtigt end det,
06:58
if you look more carefully at this graph,
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hvis du faktisk ser endnu grundigt på denne graf,
07:00
what you will observe is that about a half
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vil du observere, hvad der er omkring halvdelen af,
07:02
of that digital data
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den digitale data
07:04
is information that has an I.P. address.
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er information, som har en I.P. adresse.
07:06
It's on a server or it's on a P.C.
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Det er på en server, eller det er på en P.C.
07:09
But having an I.P. address means that it
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Men at have en I.P adresse betyder, at den
07:11
can be connected to any other data
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kan blive forbundet til enhver anden data,
07:13
that has an I.P. address.
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som har en I.P. adresse.
07:15
It means it becomes possible
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Det betyder, at det bliver muligt
07:16
to put together half of the world's knowledge
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at sætte halvdelen af verdens viden sammen
07:19
in order to see patterns,
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for at se mønstre,
07:21
an entirely new thing.
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en helt ny ting.
07:23
If we run the numbers forward to today,
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Hvis vi kører tallene frem til i dag,
07:25
it probably looks something like this.
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ser det nok nogenlunde således ud.
07:27
We're not really sure.
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Vi er ikke helt sikre.
07:28
If we run the numbers forward to 2020,
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Hvis vi kører tallene frem til 2020,
07:30
we of course have an exact number, courtesy of IDC.
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har vi selvfølgelig et eksakt tal, takket være IDC.
07:33
It's curious that the future is so much
more predictable than the present.
more predictable than the present.
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Det er mærkværdigt, at fremtiden er så
meget mere forudsigelig end nutiden.
meget mere forudsigelig end nutiden.
07:37
And what it implies is a hundredfold multiplication
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Og hvad det antyder er en hundredfold multiplikation
07:42
in the stock of information that is connected
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i lageret af information, som er forbundet
07:45
via an I.P. address.
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via en I.P. adresse.
07:47
Now, if the number of connections that we can make
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Hvis antallet af forbindelser, som vi kan foretage,
07:50
is proportional to the number of pairs of data points,
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er proportionelt til antallet af sæt af datapunkter,
07:53
a hundredfold multiplication in the quantity of data
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så er en hundredfold multiplikation i kvantiteten af data
07:56
is a ten-thousandfold multiplication
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2103
en ti-tusindfold multiplikation
07:58
in the number of patterns
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i antallet af mønstre,
08:00
that we can see in that data,
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2077
som vi kan se i den data,
08:02
this just in the last 10 or 11 years.
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dette er blot i de seneste 10 eller 11 år.
08:04
This, I would submit, is a sea change,
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Dette, vil jeg sige, er et hav af forandring,
08:07
a profound change in the economics
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en omfattende ændring i økonomierne
08:09
of the world that we live in.
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1951
i den verden, som vi lever i.
08:11
The first human genome,
195
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1164
Det første menneskelig genom,
08:12
that of James Watson,
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1566
det af James Watson,
08:14
was mapped as the culmination of the
Human Genome Project in the year 2000,
Human Genome Project in the year 2000,
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3920
blev kortlagt som kulminationen af
Human Genome Project i år 2000,
Human Genome Project i år 2000,
08:18
and it took about 200 million dollars
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2177
og det kostede omkring 200 millioner dollars
08:20
and about 10 years of work to map
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488550
1981
og omkring 10 års arbejde at kortlægge
08:22
just one person's genomic makeup.
200
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2415
bare en persons genetiske sammensætning.
08:24
Since then, the costs of mapping
the genome have come down.
the genome have come down.
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Siden da er omkostninger af at kortlægge genomet faldet.
08:27
In fact, they've come down in recent years
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1887
De er faktisk faldet drastisk i
08:29
very dramatically indeed,
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1674
de seneste år,
08:31
to the point where the cost
is now below 1,000 dollars,
is now below 1,000 dollars,
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2446
til det punkt hvor omkostningerne nu er under 1000 dollars,
08:33
and it's confidently predicted that by the year 2015
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og det er selvsikkert forudsagt at i år 2015,
08:36
it will be below 100 dollars --
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1731
vil det være under 100 dollars --
08:38
a five or six order of magnitude drop
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3196
et fem eller seks størrelsesordners fald
08:41
in the cost of genomic mapping
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1945
i omkostninger ved genetisk kortlægning
08:43
in just a 15-year period,
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2423
i blot en 15 års periode,
08:45
an extraordinary phenomenon.
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et ekstraordinært fænomen.
08:48
Now, in the days when mapping a genome
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I dagene, hvor kortlægningen af et genom
08:52
cost millions, or even tens of thousands,
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3009
kostede millioner, eller blot titusinder,
08:55
it was basically a research enterprise.
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523613
1978
var det dybest set en forskningsvirksomhed.
08:57
Scientists would gather some representative people,
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2542
Forskere ville samle nogle repræsentative mennesker,
09:00
and they would see patterns, and they would try
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1214
og de ville se mønstre, og de ville prøve
09:01
and make generalizations about
human nature and disease
human nature and disease
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at foretage generaliseringer om
menneskelig natur og sygdom,
menneskelig natur og sygdom,
09:04
from the abstract patterns they find
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1591
fra de abstrakte mønstre de fandt
09:05
from these particular selected individuals.
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533828
3460
ud fra disse specifikt udvalgte individer.
09:09
But when the genome can
be mapped for 100 bucks,
be mapped for 100 bucks,
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2833
Men når genomet kan blive kortlagt for 100 dollars,
09:12
99 dollars while you wait,
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2348
99 dollars mens du venter,
09:14
then what happens is, it becomes retail.
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2190
så sker der det, at det bliver en forbrugsvare.
09:16
It becomes above all clinical.
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1857
Det bliver først og fremmest klinisk.
09:18
You go the doctor with a cold,
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1212
Du går til lægen med en forkølelse,
09:19
and if he or she hasn't done it already,
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547728
1934
og hvis han eller hun ikke allerede har gjort det,
09:21
the first thing they do is map your genome,
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2238
så vil det første de gør være, at de kortlægger dit genom,
09:23
at which point what they're now doing
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1655
på hvilket tidspunkt hvad de nu gør
09:25
is not starting from some abstract
knowledge of genomic medicine
knowledge of genomic medicine
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4529
ikke er at starte fra en abstrakt viden om genetisk medicin,
09:30
and trying to work out how it applies to you,
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2064
og prøve at regne ud, hvordan passer til dig,
09:32
but they're starting from your particular genome.
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2569
men de starter nu fra dit specifikke genom.
09:34
Now think of the power of that.
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1440
Tænk på styrken af det.
09:36
Think of where that takes us
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1789
Tænk på hvor det fører os hen,
09:37
when we can combine genomic data
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2946
når vi kan kombinere genetiske data
09:40
with clinical data
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1489
med klinisk data,
09:42
with data about drug interactions
234
570381
1959
med data om medicininteraktioner
09:44
with the kind of ambient data that devices
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2289
med den form for data, som apparater
09:46
like our phone and medical sensors
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1759
som vores telefon og medicinske sensorer
09:48
will increasingly be collecting.
237
576388
1858
i stigende grad vil indsamle.
09:50
Think what happens when we collect all of that data
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2461
Tænk på hvad der sker, når vi samler al den data,
09:52
and we can put it together
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1473
og vi sætter den sammen,
09:54
in order to find patterns we wouldn't see before.
240
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2488
for at finde mønstre vi ikke ville se før.
09:56
This, I would suggest, perhaps it will take a while,
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2911
Dette, ville jeg argumentere for, måske vil det tage noget tid,
09:59
but this will drive a revolution in medicine.
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2441
men det ville indvarsle en revolution i medicin.
10:02
Fabulous, lots of people talk about this.
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2320
Fantastisk, mange snakker om dette.
10:04
But there's one thing that
doesn't get much attention.
doesn't get much attention.
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2439
Men der er en ting, som ikke får megen opmærksomhed.
10:06
How is that model of colossal sharing
245
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3284
Hvordan er den model af enorm deling,
10:10
across all of those kinds of databases
246
598063
2646
på tværs af alle de forskellige slags databaser,
10:12
compatible with the business models
247
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2492
kompatible med forretningsmodellerne
10:15
of institutions and organizations and corporations
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2614
af institutioner, organisationer og koncerner,
10:17
that are involved in this business today?
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2297
som er involveret i forretningslivet i dag.
10:20
If your business is based on proprietary data,
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2776
Hvis din forretning er baseret på patentbeskyttet data,
10:22
if your competitive advantage
is defined by your data,
is defined by your data,
251
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3043
hvis din konkurrencefordel er defineret af din data,
10:25
how on Earth is that company or is that society
252
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3520
hvordan i alverden vil den virksomhed eller det samfund
10:29
in fact going to achieve the value
253
617451
2098
faktisk opnå den værdi,
10:31
that's implicit in the technology? They can't.
254
619549
3005
som der er implicit i teknologien?
Det kan de ikke.
Det kan de ikke.
10:34
So essentially what's happening here,
255
622554
2047
Så hvad der essentielt sker her,
10:36
and genomics is merely one example of this,
256
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2644
og genomi er blot et eksempel på dette,
10:39
is that technology is driving
257
627245
2314
er at teknologi skubber
10:41
the natural scaling of the activity
258
629559
2569
den naturlige skala af aktiviteten
10:44
beyond the institutional boundaries within which
259
632128
2927
ud over de institutionelle grænser inden for hvilke,
10:47
we have been used to thinking about it,
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2158
vi førhen tænkte på det,
10:49
and in particular beyond the institutional boundaries
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2163
og specifikt ud over de institutionelle grænser
10:51
in terms of which business strategy
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639376
2254
med hensyn til hvilken forretningsstrategi
10:53
as a discipline is formulated.
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3455
som en disciplin er formuleret.
10:57
The basic story here is that what used to be
264
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3486
Den grundlæggende historie her er,
hvad der plejede at være
hvad der plejede at være
11:00
vertically integrated, oligopolistic competition
265
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3662
vertikal integreret, oligopolistisk konkurrence
11:04
among essentially similar kinds of competitors
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652233
2791
imellem den samme slags af konkurrenter
11:07
is evolving, by one means or another,
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655024
2459
er ved at udvikle sig, på en måde eller en anden,
11:09
from a vertical structure to a horizontal one.
268
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3361
fra en vertikal struktur til en horisontal.
11:12
Why is that happening?
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1715
Hvorfor sker dette?
11:14
It's happening because
transaction costs are plummeting
transaction costs are plummeting
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662559
2505
Det sker fordi transaktionsomkostningerne styrtdykker
11:17
and because scale is polarizing.
271
665064
1928
og fordi skala bliver polariseret.
11:18
The plummeting of transaction costs
272
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1742
Styrtdykket i transaktionsomkostninger
11:20
weakens the glue that holds value chains together,
273
668734
2638
svækker limen, som holder værdikæden sammen,
11:23
and allows them to separate.
274
671372
1668
og tillader dem at separere.
11:25
The polarization of scale economies
275
673040
1935
Polariseringen af stordriftsfordele
11:26
towards the very small -- small is beautiful --
276
674975
3126
gående imod de meget små -- småt er smukt --
11:30
allows for scalable communities
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678101
2668
tillader skalerbare samfund
11:32
to substitute for conventional corporate production.
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680769
3117
til at substituere for konventionel virksomheds produktion.
11:35
The scaling in the opposite direction,
279
683886
2004
Skaleringen i den modsatte retning,
11:37
towards things like big data,
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685890
2033
imod ting som stor data,
11:39
drive the structure of business
281
687923
1409
driver virksomhedsstrukturer
11:41
towards the creation of new kinds of institutions
282
689332
2723
imod skabelsen af nye slags institutioner,
11:44
that can achieve that scale.
283
692055
1978
som kan opnå den skala.
11:46
But either way, the typically vertical structure
284
694033
2758
Men ligegyldigt hvad, den typiske vertikale struktur
11:48
gets driven to becoming more horizontal.
285
696791
3004
bliver drevet til at blive mere horisontal.
11:51
The logic isn't just about big data.
286
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2415
Logikken er ikke bare om stor data.
11:54
If we were to look, for example,
at the telecommunications industry,
at the telecommunications industry,
287
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3326
Hvis vi ser, for eksempel, på telekommunikationsindustrien,
11:57
you can tell the same story about fiber optics.
288
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2375
kan du se den samme historie om fiberoptik.
11:59
If we look at the pharmaceutical industry,
289
707911
2136
Hvis vi ser på medicinalvareindustrien
12:02
or, for that matter, university research,
290
710047
1893
eller for den sags skyld, universitetsforskning,
12:03
you can say exactly the same story
291
711940
1674
så kan du fortælle den nøjagtig samme historie
12:05
about so-called "big science."
292
713614
1739
om såkaldt 'stor videnskab'.
12:07
And in the opposite direction,
293
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1535
Og i den modsatte retning,
12:08
if we look, say, at the energy sector,
294
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2197
hvis vi ser, lad os sige, på energisektoren,
12:11
where all the talk is about how households
295
719085
2860
hvor alle snakker om, hvordan husholdninger
12:13
will be efficient producers of green energy
296
721945
3584
vil blive effektive producenter af grøn energi
12:17
and efficient conservers of energy,
297
725529
2628
og effektive opbevarer af energi,
12:20
that is, in fact, the reverse phenomenon.
298
728157
1880
så er det faktisk det modsatte fænomen.
12:22
That is the fragmentation of scale
299
730037
1870
Det er fragmenteringen af skala
12:23
because the very small can substitute
300
731907
2354
fordi det meget små kan substituere
12:26
for the traditional corporate scale.
301
734261
2594
den traditionelle virksomhedsskala.
12:28
Either way, what we are driven to
302
736855
1791
Uanset hvad, så er hvad vi er drevet imod
12:30
is this horizontalization of the structure of industries,
303
738646
3371
denne horisontalisering af industristrukturer,
12:34
and that implies fundamental changes
304
742017
2590
og det medfører fundamentale forandringer,
12:36
in how we think about strategy.
305
744607
2062
i hvordan vi tænker på strategi.
12:38
It means, for example, that we need to think
306
746669
2032
Det betyder, for eksempel, at vi er nødt til at tænke
12:40
about strategy as the curation
307
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2547
på strategi som bevaringen
12:43
of these kinds of horizontal structure,
308
751248
2645
af denne slags af horisontale strukturer,
12:45
where things like business definition
309
753893
1640
hvor ting som forretningsdefinition
12:47
and even industry definition
310
755533
1562
og sågar industridefinition,
12:49
are actually the outcomes of strategy,
311
757095
2802
faktisk er resultatet af strategi,
12:51
not something that the strategy presupposes.
312
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3181
ikke noget som strategien forudsætter.
12:55
It means, for example, we need to work out
313
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3156
Det betyder, for eksempel, at vi er nød til at finde ud af,
12:58
how to accommodate collaboration
314
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2357
hvordan man kan rumme samarbejde
13:00
and competition simultaneously.
315
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1866
og konkurrence på samme tid.
13:02
Think about the genome.
316
770457
1086
Tænk på genomet.
13:03
We need to accommodate the very large
317
771543
1778
Vi er nød til at rumme det meget store
13:05
and the very small simultaneously.
318
773321
2135
og det meget små samtidigt.
13:07
And we need industry structures
319
775456
1943
Og vi har behov for industristrukturer,
13:09
that will accommodate very,
very different motivations,
very different motivations,
320
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2942
som vil rumme meget, meget, forskellige slags motivationer,
13:12
from the amateur motivations
of people in communities
of people in communities
321
780341
2633
fra amatørmotivationer fra folk i samfund
13:14
to maybe the social motivations
322
782974
1973
til måske den sociale motivation
13:16
of infrastructure built by governments,
323
784947
2336
af infrastrukturer bygget af regeringer,
13:19
or, for that matter, cooperative institutions
324
787283
2625
eller for den sags skyld kooperative institutioner
13:21
built by companies that are otherwise competing,
325
789908
2492
bygget af virksomheder, som ellers er konkurrerende,
13:24
because that is the only way
that they can get to scale.
that they can get to scale.
326
792400
2994
fordi det er den eneste måde, de kan nå til den skala.
13:27
These kinds of transformations
327
795394
1977
Denne slags af transformationer
13:29
render the traditional premises
of business strategy obsolete.
of business strategy obsolete.
328
797371
3725
gør de traditionelle præmisser af forretningsstrategi forældede.
13:33
They drive us into a completely new world.
329
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2569
De driver os ind i en helt ny verden.
13:35
They require us, whether we are
330
803665
1421
De tvinger os, uanset om vi er
13:37
in the public sector or the private sector,
331
805086
2767
i den offentlige sektor eller den private sektor,
13:39
to think very fundamentally differently
332
807853
2300
til at tænke fundamentalt anderledes
13:42
about the structure of business,
333
810153
1820
omkring struktureringen af virksomheder,
13:43
and, at last, it makes strategy interesting again.
334
811973
3454
og til slut, gør det strategi interessant igen.
13:47
Thank you.
335
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2813
Tak.
(Bifald)
13:50
(Applause)
336
818240
2515
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Philip Evans - ConsultantBCG's Philip Evans has a bold prediction for the future of business strategy -- and it starts with Big Data.
Why you should listen
Since the 1970s, business strategy has been dominated by two major theories: Bruce Henderson's idea of increasing returns to scale and experience and Michael Porter's value chain. But now decades later, in the wake of web 2.0, Philip Evans argues that a new force will rule business strategy in the future -- the massive amount of data shared by competing groups.
Evans, a senior partner and managing director at the Boston Consulting Group, is the co-author of Blown to Bits, about how the information economy is bringing the trade-off between "richness and reach" to the forefront of business. Evans is based in Boston.
Philip Evans | Speaker | TED.com