TED@BCG San Francisco
Philip Evans: How data will transform business
菲利普 伊万斯: 数据如何改变商业
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商业的未来会是怎样的？在这一信息丰富的演讲中，菲利普对两个历史悠久的战略理论进行了扼要的前瞻，并解释了他为什么认为这些理论最终会失效。
Philip Evans - Consultant
BCG's Philip Evans has a bold prediction for the future of business strategy -- and it starts with Big Data. Full bio
BCG's Philip Evans has a bold prediction for the future of business strategy -- and it starts with Big Data. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I'm going to talk a little bit about strategy
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我今天想谈一下战略
00:14
and its relationship with technology.
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以及它与科技的关系.
00:18
We tend to think of business strategy
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我们通常认为商业战略
00:21
as being a rather abstract body
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是一个非常抽象的概念，
00:23
of essentially economic thought,
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是一个仅仅关于经济的想法。
00:25
perhaps rather timeless.
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甚至可能是没有终止的。
00:27
I'm going to argue that, in fact,
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我想对这一观点发出挑战。
00:28
business strategy has always been premised
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实际上，商业策略都是以
00:31
on assumptions about technology,
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与科技相关的假设为前提的。
00:33
that those assumptions are changing,
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那些假设在不断变化中，
00:35
and, in fact, changing quite dramatically,
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并且实际上变化非常大
00:38
and that therefore what that will drive us to
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所以这种假设引领的方向
00:41
is a different concept of what we mean
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和我们原来对于商业策略的概念
00:44
by business strategy.
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有很大不同
00:47
Let me start, if I may,
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请允许我
00:48
with a little bit of history.
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以一小段历史作为开头
00:51
The idea of strategy in business
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商业领域策略这一概念
00:53
owes its origins to two intellectual giants:
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起源于两位天才：
00:56
Bruce Henderson, the founder of BCG,
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BCG的创始人，布鲁斯 亨德森
00:58
and Michael Porter, professor
at the Harvard Business School.
at the Harvard Business School.
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以及哈佛商学院的教授 迈克尔 波特。
01:02
Henderson's central idea was what you might call
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亨德森的中心理论是：
01:05
the Napoleonic idea of concentrating mass
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集中力量
01:08
against weakness, of overwhelming the enemy.
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对付敌人弱点的拿破仑理念
01:10
What Henderson recognized was that,
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亨德森认可的是：
01:12
in the business world,
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在商业领域，
01:14
there are many phenomena which are characterized
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许多包含被经济学家称作报酬递增
01:16
by what economists would call increasing returns --
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的现象，比如：
01:18
scale, experience.
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规模，经历
01:20
The more you do of something,
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你做的越多
01:22
disproportionately the better you get.
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会不成比例地获得好的结果
01:24
And therefore he found a logic for investing
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因此，他发现一种投资逻辑
01:27
in such kinds of overwhelming mass
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用这种大规模投入
01:30
in order to achieve competitive advantage.
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以此获得竞争优势
01:32
And that was the first introduction
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那便是历史上首次
01:34
of essentially a military concept of strategy
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将军事领域中战术的概念
01:37
into the business world.
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引入到商业领域。
01:40
Porter agreed with that premise,
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波特赞同这种假设
01:43
but he qualified it.
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但他也提出了一些限制理论
01:44
He pointed out, correctly, that that's all very well,
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他指出，这一假设的确成立
01:47
but businesses actually have multiple steps to them.
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但是从商业上来说它需要更多的步骤
01:51
They have different components,
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它们有不同的组成部分
01:53
and each of those components might be driven
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而且每一个组成部分
01:55
by a different kind of strategy.
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可能都是由不同的战略引导的
01:57
A company or a business
might actually be advantaged
might actually be advantaged
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一个公司或者经济模式可能在一些活动中占有优势
01:59
in some activities but disadvantaged in others.
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但可能在另一些活动中有劣势
02:03
He formed the concept of the value chain,
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他提出了“价值链”这一概念
02:05
essentially the sequence of steps with which
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实际上，这些步骤的顺序是这样的
02:08
a, shall we say, raw material, becomes a component,
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比如说，一个原材料成为零部件
02:11
becomes assembled into a finished product,
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然后被组装成最终产品
02:12
and then is distributed, for example,
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之后它又被分销出去
02:15
and he argued that advantage accrued
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他认为优势产生于
02:18
to each of those components,
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每一个组成部分中
02:19
and that the advantage of the whole
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而整体的优势
02:21
was in some sense the sum or the average
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在于所有部分的
02:23
of that of its parts.
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总和或者平均值
02:25
And this idea of the value chain was predicated
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这种价值链的观点
02:28
on the recognition that
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基于对一种理论的认可
02:30
what holds a business together is transaction costs,
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该理论认为交易成本使商业整体化
02:34
that in essence you need to coordinate,
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基本上，你需要合作
02:36
organizations are more efficient at coordination
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这些机构在合作中
02:39
than markets, very often,
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通常比市场更高效
02:41
and therefore the nature and role and boundaries
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因此合作的本质、角色和界限
02:44
of the cooperation are defined by transaction costs.
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被定义为交易成本
02:47
It was on those two ideas,
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它是基于这两个理念的
02:50
Henderson's idea of increasing returns
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亨德森关于规模化和经验化
02:53
to scale and experience,
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增加收益的理念
02:55
and Porter's idea of the value chain,
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和波特的价值链的理念
02:57
encompassing heterogenous elements,
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围绕着异质的元素
02:59
that the whole edifice of business strategy
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这些元素使整个商业战略的大厦
03:03
was subsequently erected.
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随之建立起来
03:05
Now what I'm going to argue is
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我现在要反驳的是
03:08
that those premises are, in fact, being invalidated.
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这些前提实际上渐渐不成立了
03:14
First of all, let's think about transaction costs.
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首先，我们来看交易成本
03:16
There are really two components
to transaction costs.
to transaction costs.
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交易成本有两个组成部分
03:19
One is about processing information,
and the other is about communication.
and the other is about communication.
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一个是加工信息，另一个是通信
03:21
These are the economics of
processing and communicating
processing and communicating
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这些是加工和通信经济学
03:25
as they have evolved over a long period of time.
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因为它们已经发展了很长时间
03:27
As we all know from so many contexts,
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正如我们所知道的
03:30
they have been radically transformed
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它们从根本上改变了
03:32
since the days when Porter and Henderson
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从波特和亨德森
03:35
first formulated their theories.
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首次提出他们的理论时
03:37
In particular, since the mid-'90s,
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也就是说，从90年代中期开始
03:39
communications costs have actually been falling
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通信成本已经下降了
03:41
even faster than transaction costs,
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甚至比交易成本更快地下降
03:43
which is why communication, the Internet,
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所以通信、互联网才能
03:45
has exploded in such a dramatic fashion.
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如此迅速地发展
03:50
Now, those falling transaction costs
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如今，这些下降的交易成本
03:52
have profound consequences,
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造成了更深远的影响
03:54
because if transaction costs are the glue
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如果交易成本是
03:56
that hold value chains together, and they are falling,
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粘合价值链的因素，而且它还在下降
03:58
there is less to economize on.
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那么可利用的资源就少了
04:00
There is less need for vertically
integrated organization,
integrated organization,
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对垂直化整合机构的需求减少了
04:03
and value chains at least can break up.
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价值链也会随之断裂
04:06
They needn't necessarily, but they can.
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他们不一定必须断裂，但是很可能
04:08
In particular, it then becomes possible for
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特别是对于同一商业中的竞争者来说
04:10
a competitor in one business
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他们就可能
04:12
to use their position in one step of the value chain
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利用其在价值链中的位置
04:15
in order to penetrate or attack
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以此来对对手进行渗透、攻击
04:17
or disintermediate the competitor in another.
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或作非居间化交易
04:20
That is not just an abstract proposition.
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这不仅是一个抽象的议题
04:23
There are many very specific stories
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我这里有一些具体的故事
04:25
of how that actually happened.
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告诉我们这些是如何发生的
百科全书业就是一个很典型的例子
04:27
A poster child example was
the encyclopedia business.
the encyclopedia business.
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04:30
The encyclopedia business
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在皮面精装的时代
04:31
in the days of leatherbound books
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百科全书行业
04:34
was basically a distribution business.
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基本上是分销业务
04:35
Most of the cost was the
commission to the salesmen.
commission to the salesmen.
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大部分成本都归于销售员的佣金
04:38
The CD-ROM and then the Internet came along,
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光盘和网络随后盛行
04:40
new technologies made the distribution of knowledge
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新技术大大降低了
04:44
many orders of magnitude cheaper,
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知识传播的成本
04:46
and the encyclopedia industry collapsed.
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百科全书行业随之崩塌
04:49
It's now, of course, a very familiar story.
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当然，这个故事听上去很熟悉
04:52
This, in fact, more generally was the story
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实际上这是第一代
04:54
of the first generation of the Internet economy.
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网络经济的普遍现象
04:56
It was about falling transaction costs
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这就是交易成本下降
04:58
breaking up value chains
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使价值链断裂的例子
05:00
and therefore allowing disintermediation,
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随之而来的是脱媒现象
05:02
or what we call deconstruction.
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或者说解构理论
05:05
One of the questions I was occasionally asked was,
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曾经有人问我
05:07
well, what's going to replace the encyclopedia
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当大英百科全书不再有商业模型的时候
05:10
when Britannica no longer has a business model?
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什么会取代百科全书？
05:12
And it was a while before
the answer became manifest.
the answer became manifest.
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我被问及这个问题时，答案还没有那么明朗
05:14
Now, of course, we know
what it is: it's the Wikipedia.
what it is: it's the Wikipedia.
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现在，我们当然知道答案就是维基百科
05:17
Now what's special about the
Wikipedia is not its distribution.
Wikipedia is not its distribution.
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维基百科的特别之处不是在于它的传播模式
05:20
What's special about the Wikipedia
is the way it's produced.
is the way it's produced.
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而是在于它的生产方式
05:23
The Wikipedia, of course, is an encyclopedia
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维基百科是一种
05:25
created by its users.
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由用户自己创造的百科全书
05:28
And this, in fact, defines what you might call
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这实际上就定义了
05:30
the second decade of the Internet economy,
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第二代网络经济
05:32
the decade in which the Internet as a noun
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在这十年间，网络有一个名词
05:35
became the Internet as a verb.
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转变为一个动词
05:37
It became a set of conversations,
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它成为一系列的转化
05:39
the era in which user-generated
content and social networks
content and social networks
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一个用户创造内容和社交网络
05:43
became the dominant phenomenon.
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成为主流现象的时代
05:46
Now what that really meant
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因此
05:48
in terms of the Porter-Henderson framework
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对于波特-哈德逊体系
05:51
was the collapse of certain
kinds of economies of scale.
kinds of economies of scale.
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我们通常指的是某种程度上规模经济效益的瓦解
05:55
It turned out that tens of thousands
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事实证明，由千千万万个
05:57
of autonomous individuals writing an encyclopedia
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个体自发所写出的百科全书
06:00
could do just as good a job,
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也是非常出色并不逊于专业人员
06:02
and certainly a much cheaper job,
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并且由于是自发完成，这一工作
06:03
than professionals in a hierarchical organization.
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变得比由层级组织中的专业人员完成的更加便宜
06:06
So basically what was happening was that one layer
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所以
06:09
of this value chain was becoming fragmented,
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由于个人可以取代曾经由组织或者公司完成的事情
06:12
as individuals could take over
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价值链中的某一层
06:13
where organizations were no longer needed.
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已经开始断裂
06:17
But there's another question
that obviously this graph poses,
that obviously this graph poses,
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但是，从这个表里，可以非常明显地看出有一个问题
06:19
which is, okay, we've
gone through two decades --
gone through two decades --
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我们已经经历了两个时代——
06:22
does anything distinguish the third?
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那么这第三个时代有什么不同吗？
06:24
And what I'm going to argue is that indeed
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那么我将要试图说服你们的是，是的
06:26
something does distinguish the third,
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这第三个时代确实是与前两个不同
06:28
and it maps exactly on to the kind of
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并且这种不同
06:30
Porter-Henderson logic that
we've been talking about.
we've been talking about.
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恰好是我们所说的波特-哈德逊体系逻辑的映射
06:33
And that is, about data.
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这就是，数据
06:35
If we go back to around 2000,
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如果我们回到2000年
06:37
a lot of people were talking
about the information revolution,
about the information revolution,
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许多人都在谈论关于信息变革
06:39
and it was indeed true that the world's stock of data
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并且这个世界的数据储存
06:42
was growing, indeed growing quite fast.
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在当时也在增加，并且是飞速的增加
06:44
but it was still at that point overwhelmingly analog.
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但是在那个时候是可以进行大规模模拟的
06:47
We go forward to 2007,
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我们前进到2007年
06:49
not only had the world's stock of data exploded,
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这时候不仅有数据的全球股市发生爆炸
06:52
but there'd been this massive substitution
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还有数字模拟的
06:54
of digital for analog.
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大规模替代
06:56
And more important even than that,
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更重要的是
06:58
if you look more carefully at this graph,
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如果你仔细看这个表
07:00
what you will observe is that about a half
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你会发现接近一半的
07:02
of that digital data
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数据都会有一个
07:04
is information that has an I.P. address.
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IP地址
07:06
It's on a server or it's on a P.C.
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这个地址会在服务器上或者个人电脑上
07:09
But having an I.P. address means that it
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但是有IP地址意味着
07:11
can be connected to any other data
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它可以连接到任何一个
07:13
that has an I.P. address.
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有IP地址的数据
07:15
It means it becomes possible
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这意味着
07:16
to put together half of the world's knowledge
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将这个世界一半的知识放在一起变为可能
07:19
in order to see patterns,
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来研究这些配对
07:21
an entirely new thing.
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一个全新的东西
07:23
If we run the numbers forward to today,
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如果我们将运行的数字放在今天
07:25
it probably looks something like this.
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它看起来可能是这个样子
07:27
We're not really sure.
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我们并不确定
07:28
If we run the numbers forward to 2020,
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如果我们把他们放在2020年
07:30
we of course have an exact number, courtesy of IDC.
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我们当然有一个确定的数字，
07:33
It's curious that the future is so much
more predictable than the present.
more predictable than the present.
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非常奇妙的，对于未来的预测将比对现在的预测更加容易
07:37
And what it implies is a hundredfold multiplication
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这暗示了通过IP地址的连接
07:42
in the stock of information that is connected
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成百倍乘法的信息
07:45
via an I.P. address.
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储藏在里面
07:47
Now, if the number of connections that we can make
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如今，如果这些IP之间的连接数与成对的数据点
07:50
is proportional to the number of pairs of data points,
186
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是成比例增加的话
07:53
a hundredfold multiplication in the quantity of data
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我们看到这个数据中
07:56
is a ten-thousandfold multiplication
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上百倍的数据数量的增加
07:58
in the number of patterns
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将会是这些配对的
08:00
that we can see in that data,
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上千倍增长
08:02
this just in the last 10 or 11 years.
191
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2660
而这，仅仅发生在过去的十年到十一年间
08:04
This, I would submit, is a sea change,
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这个，我可以说，是一个非常海量的变化
08:07
a profound change in the economics
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2084
在我们所处的这个世界里
08:09
of the world that we live in.
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1951
这个经济变化是非常深刻的
08:11
The first human genome,
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1164
在2000年人类的
08:12
that of James Watson,
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1566
第一个詹姆斯瓦特生的
08:14
was mapped as the culmination of the
Human Genome Project in the year 2000,
Human Genome Project in the year 2000,
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3920
基因图谱的绘制
08:18
and it took about 200 million dollars
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2177
是人类基因组绘制工程的顶峰
08:20
and about 10 years of work to map
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1981
它耗费了2亿美元和十年的功夫
08:22
just one person's genomic makeup.
200
490531
2415
才绘制出一个人的基因图谱
08:24
Since then, the costs of mapping
the genome have come down.
the genome have come down.
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2605
从那之后，绘制基因图谱的花费开始下降
08:27
In fact, they've come down in recent years
202
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1887
而事实上，这些年这个花费
08:29
very dramatically indeed,
203
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1674
下降得非常厉害
08:31
to the point where the cost
is now below 1,000 dollars,
is now below 1,000 dollars,
204
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2446
现在已经下降到不到1000美元
08:33
and it's confidently predicted that by the year 2015
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并且我们非常肯定的预测
08:36
it will be below 100 dollars --
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1731
到2015年这个
花费会下降到100美元——
花费会下降到100美元——
08:38
a five or six order of magnitude drop
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3196
基因组绘制的花费
08:41
in the cost of genomic mapping
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1945
在仅仅15年间
08:43
in just a 15-year period,
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2423
下降了五个或者六个级数
08:45
an extraordinary phenomenon.
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2395
这是一个非常不寻常的现象
08:48
Now, in the days when mapping a genome
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当基因组绘制的花费在百万级别
08:52
cost millions, or even tens of thousands,
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甚至数亿美元的级别时
08:55
it was basically a research enterprise.
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1978
绘制组是一个研究机构
08:57
Scientists would gather some representative people,
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科学家们会搜集一些具有代表性的人
09:00
and they would see patterns, and they would try
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1214
然后他们会研究这些人的配对
09:01
and make generalizations about
human nature and disease
human nature and disease
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最后在这些具体挑选出来的个体中
09:04
from the abstract patterns they find
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1591
科学家们从找出的抽象配对里
09:05
from these particular selected individuals.
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3460
概括出人性和疾病
09:09
But when the genome can
be mapped for 100 bucks,
be mapped for 100 bucks,
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但是，当基因组绘制
09:12
99 dollars while you wait,
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2348
只需要100美元，或者99美元立等可取
09:14
then what happens is, it becomes retail.
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2190
那么这个行业将变成零售业
09:16
It becomes above all clinical.
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它将成为最重要的临床方式
09:18
You go the doctor with a cold,
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当你生病去找医生的时候
09:19
and if he or she hasn't done it already,
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1934
他们会要求你首先做一个基因绘制
09:21
the first thing they do is map your genome,
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如果你还没有做过
09:23
at which point what they're now doing
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医生也不再会由一些抽象模糊的
09:25
is not starting from some abstract
knowledge of genomic medicine
knowledge of genomic medicine
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基因药物治疗开始
09:30
and trying to work out how it applies to you,
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看你适合哪种药物
09:32
but they're starting from your particular genome.
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而是会直接找到那个具体的基因然后开始治疗
09:34
Now think of the power of that.
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想想这个东西的能量
09:36
Think of where that takes us
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想想当我们可以
09:37
when we can combine genomic data
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将基因数据和
09:40
with clinical data
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临床数据结合起来
09:42
with data about drug interactions
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570381
1959
这些临床数据是药物与周围环境交互产生的
09:44
with the kind of ambient data that devices
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2289
并且这些数据可以通过
09:46
like our phone and medical sensors
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1759
我们的手机设备和医学仪器
09:48
will increasingly be collecting.
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进行不断地收集
09:50
Think what happens when we collect all of that data
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想想当我们可以收集所有的数据
09:52
and we can put it together
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并且可以将它们放在一起
09:54
in order to find patterns we wouldn't see before.
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2488
找出我们从来不曾见过的配对组合
09:56
This, I would suggest, perhaps it will take a while,
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我会觉得，或许需要一段时间
09:59
but this will drive a revolution in medicine.
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但是这将会是医药界的一次革命
10:02
Fabulous, lots of people talk about this.
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很多人都觉得这是非常棒的一次革命
10:04
But there's one thing that
doesn't get much attention.
doesn't get much attention.
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是这里有一件事并没有引起太多的注意
10:06
How is that model of colossal sharing
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这个所有类型的数据
10:10
across all of those kinds of databases
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进行巨大共享的模式
10:12
compatible with the business models
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如何与所有机构组织和企业
10:15
of institutions and organizations and corporations
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都参与商业的模式
10:17
that are involved in this business today?
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进行兼容
10:20
If your business is based on proprietary data,
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2776
如果你的生意主要以产业数据为基础
10:22
if your competitive advantage
is defined by your data,
is defined by your data,
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3043
你的竞争优势则在于你的数据
10:25
how on Earth is that company or is that society
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究竟这个公司或者这个社会
10:29
in fact going to achieve the value
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2098
如何实现这个
10:31
that's implicit in the technology? They can't.
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3005
隐藏于技术中的价值？他们不能
10:34
So essentially what's happening here,
255
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2047
本质上来说
10:36
and genomics is merely one example of this,
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2644
基因组绘制仅仅只是一个例子
10:39
is that technology is driving
257
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2314
现在技术正在推动
10:41
the natural scaling of the activity
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2569
商业活动规模的自然形成
10:44
beyond the institutional boundaries within which
259
632128
2927
这一变动超越了我们通常意义下所认识的
10:47
we have been used to thinking about it,
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2158
机构之间的界限
10:49
and in particular beyond the institutional boundaries
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2163
尤其是超越了
10:51
in terms of which business strategy
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2254
由商业战略为纪律
10:53
as a discipline is formulated.
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3455
而形成的界限
10:57
The basic story here is that what used to be
264
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3486
这个故事的基础在于
11:00
vertically integrated, oligopolistic competition
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3662
曾经是在相似类型的
11:04
among essentially similar kinds of competitors
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2791
几个主要竞争者之间的
11:07
is evolving, by one means or another,
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2459
垂直结构、寡头垄断控制下的竞争
11:09
from a vertical structure to a horizontal one.
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3361
通过一种或者其它的方式，由垂直结构变为了水平结构
11:12
Why is that happening?
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1715
为什么会有这样的变化？
11:14
It's happening because
transaction costs are plummeting
transaction costs are plummeting
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2505
这是因为交易成本的急剧下降
11:17
and because scale is polarizing.
271
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1928
以及规模的两极分化
11:18
The plummeting of transaction costs
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1742
交易成本的急剧下降
11:20
weakens the glue that holds value chains together,
273
668734
2638
削弱了使价值链聚集的粘合物
11:23
and allows them to separate.
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671372
1668
并使价值链分化
11:25
The polarization of scale economies
275
673040
1935
经济规模的两级分化
11:26
towards the very small -- small is beautiful --
276
674975
3126
使规模趋于小型化——小即是美——
11:30
allows for scalable communities
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2668
得可伸缩的社区经济
11:32
to substitute for conventional corporate production.
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680769
3117
替代了传统化企业生产
11:35
The scaling in the opposite direction,
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683886
2004
反规模化的趋势
11:37
towards things like big data,
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685890
2033
就像大数据
11:39
drive the structure of business
281
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1409
促使商业的结构
11:41
towards the creation of new kinds of institutions
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2723
开始向可以完成这种规模的
11:44
that can achieve that scale.
283
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1978
新型机构发展
11:46
But either way, the typically vertical structure
284
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2758
但是总之，典型的垂直结构
11:48
gets driven to becoming more horizontal.
285
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3004
已经变得越来越水平化
11:51
The logic isn't just about big data.
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2415
这个逻辑并不仅仅指的大数据
11:54
If we were to look, for example,
at the telecommunications industry,
at the telecommunications industry,
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3326
比如说，电信通讯行业
11:57
you can tell the same story about fiber optics.
288
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2375
或者相同的，纤维光学
11:59
If we look at the pharmaceutical industry,
289
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2136
如果我们看一下医药行业
12:02
or, for that matter, university research,
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1893
或者就此而言，大学研究
12:03
you can say exactly the same story
291
711940
1674
你同样可以由此
12:05
about so-called "big science."
292
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1739
得出所谓的“大科学”
12:07
And in the opposite direction,
293
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1535
我们来看反方向的
12:08
if we look, say, at the energy sector,
294
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2197
比如能源部门
12:11
where all the talk is about how households
295
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2860
大家都在讨论如何使家庭
12:13
will be efficient producers of green energy
296
721945
3584
变为绿色能源的有效产生源
12:17
and efficient conservers of energy,
297
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2628
和能源的有效利用者
12:20
that is, in fact, the reverse phenomenon.
298
728157
1880
事实上，这是一个相反的现象
12:22
That is the fragmentation of scale
299
730037
1870
正是由于规模化的破碎
12:23
because the very small can substitute
300
731907
2354
而由小规模来替代
12:26
for the traditional corporate scale.
301
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2594
传统企业规模
12:28
Either way, what we are driven to
302
736855
1791
总之，我们极力
12:30
is this horizontalization of the structure of industries,
303
738646
3371
想要达到的就是这种产业的水平结构
12:34
and that implies fundamental changes
304
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2590
这暗示了我们所认为的
12:36
in how we think about strategy.
305
744607
2062
战略的根本变化
12:38
It means, for example, that we need to think
306
746669
2032
这意味着
12:40
about strategy as the curation
307
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2547
我们需要将策略认为是
12:43
of these kinds of horizontal structure,
308
751248
2645
这一类水平结构的管理者
12:45
where things like business definition
309
753893
1640
因为商业定义
12:47
and even industry definition
310
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1562
甚至行业定义
12:49
are actually the outcomes of strategy,
311
757095
2802
是战略的成果
12:51
not something that the strategy presupposes.
312
759897
3181
而不是战略的预先假定
12:55
It means, for example, we need to work out
313
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3156
因此，我们需要制定出
12:58
how to accommodate collaboration
314
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2357
如何同时满足
13:00
and competition simultaneously.
315
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1866
合作与竞争
13:02
Think about the genome.
316
770457
1086
思考一下基因普绘制
13:03
We need to accommodate the very large
317
771543
1778
我们需要同时绘制
13:05
and the very small simultaneously.
318
773321
2135
大基因组和小基因组
13:07
And we need industry structures
319
775456
1943
因此，我们需要行业结构
13:09
that will accommodate very,
very different motivations,
very different motivations,
320
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2942
可以同时满足不同的动机
13:12
from the amateur motivations
of people in communities
of people in communities
321
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2633
从社区中人们的业余动机
13:14
to maybe the social motivations
322
782974
1973
到政府修建基础设施的
13:16
of infrastructure built by governments,
323
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2336
社会动机
13:19
or, for that matter, cooperative institutions
324
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2625
或者，就此而言，公司
13:21
built by companies that are otherwise competing,
325
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2492
以其他方式建立的竞争合作机构
13:24
because that is the only way
that they can get to scale.
that they can get to scale.
326
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2994
因为这是他们唯一可以进行规模化的方式
13:27
These kinds of transformations
327
795394
1977
这些类型的转变
13:29
render the traditional premises
of business strategy obsolete.
of business strategy obsolete.
328
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3725
得商业战略的传统前提变得过时
13:33
They drive us into a completely new world.
329
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2569
他们使我们进入一个全新的世界
13:35
They require us, whether we are
330
803665
1421
他们要求我们
13:37
in the public sector or the private sector,
331
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2767
不论是在公共部分，还是在私有部分
13:39
to think very fundamentally differently
332
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2300
都以一种完全不同的方式
13:42
about the structure of business,
333
810153
1820
来思考商业结构
13:43
and, at last, it makes strategy interesting again.
334
811973
3454
并且，使战略再一次变得有趣生动
13:47
Thank you.
335
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2813
谢谢大家
13:50
(Applause)
336
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2515
鼓掌
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Philip Evans - ConsultantBCG's Philip Evans has a bold prediction for the future of business strategy -- and it starts with Big Data.
Why you should listen
Since the 1970s, business strategy has been dominated by two major theories: Bruce Henderson's idea of increasing returns to scale and experience and Michael Porter's value chain. But now decades later, in the wake of web 2.0, Philip Evans argues that a new force will rule business strategy in the future -- the massive amount of data shared by competing groups.
Evans, a senior partner and managing director at the Boston Consulting Group, is the co-author of Blown to Bits, about how the information economy is bringing the trade-off between "richness and reach" to the forefront of business. Evans is based in Boston.
Philip Evans | Speaker | TED.com